Search results for: setting prediction

Authors: Pierre F. Gerard, Frederic F. Leymarie, William Latham

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Architects have developed a series of objective evaluations, using spatial analysis tools such as Isovist, that show how certain spatial qualities are beneficial to specific human activities hosted in the built environments. In return, they can build more adapted environments by tuning those spatial qualities in their design. In parallel, virtual reality technologies have been developed by engineers with the dream of creating a system that immerses users in a new form of spatial experiences. They already have demonstrated a useful range of benefits not only in simulating critical events to assist people in acquiring new skills, but also to enhance memory retention, to name just a few. This paper investigates the effects of two spatial qualities, openness, and complexity, on cognitive performance within immersive virtual environments. Isovist measure is used to design a series of room settings with different levels of each spatial qualities. In an empirical study, each room was then used by every participant to solve a navigational puzzle game and give a rating of their spatial experience. They were then asked to fill in a questionnaire before solving the visual-spatial memory quiz, which addressed how well they remembered the different rooms. Findings suggest that those spatial qualities have an effect on some of the measures, including navigation performance and memory retention. In particular, there is an order effect for the navigation puzzle game. Participants tended to spend a longer time in the complex room settings. Moreover, there is an interaction effect while with more open settings, participants tended to perform better when in a simple setting; however, with more closed settings, participants tended to perform better in a more complex setting. For the visual-spatial memory quiz, participants performed significantly better within the more open rooms. We believe this is a first step in using virtual environments to enhance participant cognitive performances through better use of specific spatial qualities.

Keywords: architecture, navigation, spatial cognition, virtual reality

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Authors: Carri Welsby, Jessie Gunson, Pen Roe

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Currently, there is limited research examining health care professionals (HCPs) views on long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) advice and prescription, particularly outside of the general practice (GP) setting. The aim of this study is to systematically review existing evidence around the barriers and enablers of oral contraception (OC) in comparison to LARC, as perceived by HCPs in non-GP settings. Five electronic databases were searched in April 2018 using terms related to LARC, OC, HCPs, and views, but not terms related to GPs. Studies were excluded if they concerned emergency oral contraception, male contraceptives, contraceptive use in conjunction with a health condition(s), developing countries, GPs and GP settings, were non-English or was not published before 2013. A total of six studies were included for systematic reviewing. Five key areas emerged, under which themes were categorised, including (1) understanding HCP attitudes and counselling practices towards contraceptive methods; (2) assessment of HCP attitudes and beliefs about contraceptive methods; (3) misconceptions and concerns towards contraceptive methods; and (4) influences on views, attitudes, and beliefs of contraceptive methods. Limited education and training of HCPs exists around LARC provision, particularly compared to OC. The most common misconception inhibiting HCPs contraceptive information delivery to women was the belief that LARC was inappropriate for nulliparous women. In turn, by not providing the correct information on a variety of contraceptive methods, HCP counselling practices were disempowering for women and restricted them from accessing reproductive justice. Educating HCPs to be able to provide accurate and factual information to women on all contraception is vital to encourage a woman-centered approach during contraceptive counselling and promote informed choices by women.

Keywords: advice, contraceptives, health care professionals, long acting reversible contraception, oral contraception, reproductive justice

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Authors: Nancy Samuel Reyad Farhan

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even though international crook law has grown considerably inside the ultimate decades, it still remains fragmented and lacks doctrinal cohesiveness. Its idea is defined within the doctrine as pretty disputable. there is no concrete definition of the term. in the home doctrine, the hassle of crook law troubles that rise up within the worldwide setting, and international troubles that get up in the national crook regulation, is underdeveloped each theoretically and nearly. To the exceptional of writer’s know-how, there aren't any studies describing worldwide elements of crook law in a complete way, taking a more expansive view of the difficulty. This paper provides consequences of a part of the doctoral studies, assignment a theoretical framework of the worldwide crook law. It ambitions at checking out the present terminology on international components of criminal law. It demonstrates differences among the notions of global crook regulation, criminal regulation international and law worldwide crook. It confronts the belief of crook regulation with associated disciplines and indicates their interplay. It specifies the scope of international criminal regulation. It diagnoses the contemporary criminal framework of global components of criminal regulation, referring to each crook law issues that rise up inside the international setting, and international problems that rise up within the context of national criminal law. ultimately, de lege lata postulates had been formulated and route of modifications in global criminal law turned into proposed. The followed studies hypothesis assumed that the belief of international criminal regulation became inconsistent, not understood uniformly, and there has been no conformity as to its location inside the system of regulation, objective and subjective scopes, while the domestic doctrine did not correspond with international requirements and differed from the global doctrine. applied research strategies covered inter alia a dogmatic and legal technique, an analytical technique, a comparative approach, in addition to desk studies.

Keywords: social networks privacy issues, social networks security issues, social networks privacy precautions measures, social networks security precautions measures

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Authors: Yaniv Knop, Alva Peled

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Over the past few years there has been a growing interest in the development of Portland Composite Cement, by partial replacement of the clinker with mineral additives. The motivations to reduce the clinker content are threefold: (1) Ecological - due to lower emission of CO2 to the atmosphere; (2) Economical - due to cost reduction; and (3) Scientific\Technology – improvement of performances. Among the mineral additives being used and investigated, limestone is one of the most attractive, as it is considered natural, available, and with low cost. The goal of the research is to develop green cement, by partial replacement of the clinker with limestone powder while improving the performances of the cement paste. This work studied blended cements with three limestone powder particle diameters: smaller than, larger than, and similarly sized to the clinker particle. Blended cement with limestone consisting of one particle size distribution and limestone consisting of a combination of several particle sizes were studied and compared in terms of hydration rate, hydration degree, and water demand to achieve normal consistency. The performances of these systems were also compared with that of the original cement (without added limestone). It was found that the ability to replace an active material with an inert additive, while achieving improved performances, can be obtained by increasing the packing density of the cement-based particles. This may be achieved by replacing the clinker with limestone powders having a combination of several different particle size distributions. Mathematical and physical models were developed to simulate the setting history from initial to final setting time and to predict the packing density of blended cement with limestone having different sizes and various contents. Besides the effect of limestone, as inert additive, on the packing density of the blended cement, the influence of the limestone particle size on three different chemical reactions were studied; hydration of the cement, carbonation of the calcium hydroxide and the reactivity of the limestone with the hydration reaction products. The main results and developments will be presented.

Keywords: packing density, hydration degree, limestone, blended cement

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Authors: Abdoullah Nyassi, Golam Sarwar, Sarra Baldeh, Mamadou S. K. Jallow, Bai Lamin Dondeh, Isaac Osei, Grant A. Mackenzie

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A randomized controlled trial is the "gold standard" for evaluating the efficacy of an intervention. Large-scale, cluster-randomized trials are expensive and difficult to conduct, though. To guarantee the validity and generalizability of findings, high-quality, dependable, and accurate data management systems are necessary. Robust data management systems are crucial for optimizing and validating the quality, accuracy, and dependability of trial data. Regarding the difficulties of data gathering in clinical trials in low-resource areas, there is a scarcity of literature on this subject, which may raise concerns. Effective data management systems and implementation goals should be part of trial procedures. Publicizing the creative clinical data management techniques used in clinical trials should boost public confidence in the study's conclusions and encourage further replication. In the ongoing pneumococcal vaccine schedule study in rural Gambia, this report details the development and deployment of multi-data management systems and methodologies. We implemented six different data management, synchronization, and reporting systems using Microsoft Access, RedCap, SQL, Visual Basic, Ruby, and ASP.NET. Additionally, data synchronization tools were developed to integrate data from these systems into the central server for reporting systems. Clinician, lab, and field data validation systems and methodologies are the main topics of this report. Our process development efforts across all domains were driven by the complexity of research project data collected in real-time data, online reporting, data synchronization, and ways for cleaning and verifying data. Consequently, we effectively used multi-data management systems, demonstrating the value of creative approaches in enhancing the consistency, accuracy, and reporting of trial data in a poor resource setting.

Keywords: data management, data collection, data cleaning, cluster-randomized trial

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Machimontorn Promtong, Sherman C. P. Cheung, Guan H. Yeoh, Sara Vahaji, Jiyuan Tu

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The wide range of industrial applications involved with boiling flows promotes the necessity of establishing fundamental knowledge in boiling flow phenomena. For this purpose, a number of experimental and numerical researches have been performed to elucidate the underlying physics of this flow. In this paper, the improved wall boiling models, implemented on ANSYS CFX 14.5, were introduced to study subcooled boiling flow at elevated pressure. At the heated wall boundary, the Fractal model, Force balance approach and Mechanistic frequency model are given for predicting the nucleation site density, bubble departure diameter, and bubble departure frequency. The presented wall heat flux partitioning closures were modified to consider the influence of bubble sliding along the wall before the lift-off, which usually happens in the flow boiling. The simulation was performed based on the Two-fluid model, where the standard k-ω SST model was selected for turbulence modelling. Existing experimental data at around 5 bars were chosen to evaluate the accuracy of the presented mechanistic approach. The void fraction and Interfacial Area Concentration (IAC) are in good agreement with the experimental data. However, the predicted bubble velocity and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) are over-predicted. This over-prediction may be caused by consideration of only dispersed and spherical bubbles in the simulations. In the future work, the important physical mechanisms of bubbles, such as merging and shrinking during sliding on the heated wall will be incorporated into this mechanistic model to enhance its capability for a wider range of flow prediction.

Keywords: subcooled boiling flow, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), mechanistic approach, two-fluid model

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Authors: S. Archsana, Vajira Balasuriya

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In Trincomalee of Sri Lanka, a post-conflict area, resettlement projects and policy initiatives are taking place to improve the wealth of the rural communities through promoting economic activities by way of encouraging the rural women to opt to commence and operate Micro and Small Scale (MSS) businesses. This study attempts to identify the manner in which the institutional environment could facilitate these MSS businesses owned and operated by women in the rural environment. The respondents of this study are the beneficiaries of the Divi Neguma Development Training Program (DNDTP); a project designed to aid women owned MSS businesses, in Trincomalee district. 96 women business operators, who had obtained financing facilities from the DNDTP, are taken as the sample based on fixed interval random sampling method. The study reveals that primary challenges encountered by 82% of the women business operators are lack of initial capital followed by 71% initial market finding and 35% access to technology. The low level of education and language barriers are the constraints in accessing support agencies/service providers. Institutional support; specifically management and marketing services, have a significant relationship with wealth augmentation. Institutional support at the setting-up stage of businesses are thin whereas terms and conditions of the finance facilities are perceived as ‘too challenging’. Although diversification enhances wealth of the rural women business operators, assistance from the institutional framework to prepare financial reports that are required for business expansion is skinny. The study further reveals that institutional support is very much weak in terms of providing access to new technology and identifying new market networks. A mechanism that could facilitate the institutional framework to support the rural women business operators to access new technology and untapped market segments, and assistance in preparation of legal and financial documentation is recommended.

Keywords: business facilitation, institutional support, rural women business operators, wealth augmentation

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Authors: Donna Erika E. De Jesus

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Introduction: Cardiac arrest occurs when abrupt cessation of cardiac function results in loss of effective circulation and complete cardiovascular collapse. For every minute of cardiac arrest without early intervention (cardiopulmonary resuscitation [CPR], defibrillation), chances of survival drop by 7-10%. It is crucial that CPR be initiated within 4-6 minutes to avoid brain death. Most out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) occur in a residential setting where access to trained personnel and equipment is not readily available, resulting in poor victim outcomes. Methods: This is a descriptive study done from August to November 2021 using a prospective cohort design. Participants of the study include adult patients aged 18 years and above brought to the emergency room who suffered from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Out of the total 102 cases of OHCA, 63 participants were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Results: 43 were male patients, comprising the majority at 73.02%. Hypertension was identified as the top co-morbidity, followed by diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Medical causes of arrest were identified in 96.83% of the cases. 90.48% of cardiac arrests occurred at home. Only 26 patients (41.27%) received pre-hospital intervention prior to ER arrival, which comprised only hands-only CPR. Twenty-three of which were performed by individuals with background knowledge of CPR. 60.32% were brought via self-conduction, the remainder by ambulances, which were noted to have no available equipment necessary to provide proper resuscitation. The average travel time from dispatch to ER arrival is 20 minutes. Conclusion: Overall survival of OHCA in our local setting remains dismal, as a return of spontaneous circulation was not achieved in any of the patients. The small number of patients having pre-hospital CPR indicates the need for emphasis on training and community education.

Keywords: out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, basic life support, emergency medical services

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Authors: Hossein Havaeji, Tony Wong, Thien-My Dao

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1. Research Problems and Research Objectives: Blockchain Technology-enabled Supply Chain System (BT-enabled SCS) is the system using BT to drive SCS transparency, security, durability, and process integrity as SCS data is not always visible, available, or trusted. The costs of operating BT in the SCS are a common problem in several organizations. The costs must be estimated as they can impact existing cost control strategies. To account for system and deployment costs, it is necessary to overcome the following hurdle. The problem is that the costs of developing and running a BT in SCS are not yet clear in most cases. Many industries aiming to use BT have special attention to the importance of BT installation cost which has a direct impact on the total costs of SCS. Predicting BT installation cost in SCS may help managers decide whether BT is to be an economic advantage. The purpose of the research is to identify some main BT installation cost components in SCS needed for deeper cost analysis. We then identify and categorize the main groups of cost components in more detail to utilize them in the prediction process. The second objective is to determine the suitable Supervised Learning technique in order to predict the costs of developing and running BT in SCS in a particular case study. The last aim is to investigate how the running BT cost can be involved in the total cost of SCS. 2. Work Performed: Applied successfully in various fields, Supervised Learning is a method to set the data frame, treat the data, and train/practice the method sort. It is a learning model directed to make predictions of an outcome measurement based on a set of unforeseen input data. The following steps must be conducted to search for the objectives of our subject. The first step is to make a literature review to identify the different cost components of BT installation in SCS. Based on the literature review, we should choose some Supervised Learning methods which are suitable for BT installation cost prediction in SCS. According to the literature review, some Supervised Learning algorithms which provide us with a powerful tool to classify BT installation components and predict BT installation cost are the Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm, Back Propagation (BP) neural network, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Choosing a case study to feed data into the models comes into the third step. Finally, we will propose the best predictive performance to find the minimum BT installation costs in SCS. 3. Expected Results and Conclusion: This study tends to propose a cost prediction of BT installation in SCS with the help of Supervised Learning algorithms. At first attempt, we will select a case study in the field of BT-enabled SCS, and then use some Supervised Learning algorithms to predict BT installation cost in SCS. We continue to find the best predictive performance for developing and running BT in SCS. Finally, the paper will be presented at the conference.

Keywords: blockchain technology, blockchain technology-enabled supply chain system, installation cost, supervised learning

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Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

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The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D^-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, TRMM, slope, inventory, early warning system

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Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

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Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring

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Authors: Sataroopa Mishra, Mona Basker, Sneha Varkki, Ram Kumar Pandian, Grace Rebekah

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Background: Sleep deprivation is a matter of public health importance among adolescents. We used adolescent sleep wake scale and adolescent sleep hygiene scale to determine the sleep quality and sleep hygiene respectively of school going adolescents in Vellore city of India. The objective of the study was to do factorial analysis of the scales and validate it for use in local population. Methods: Observational questionnaire based cross sectional study. Setting: Community based school survey in a semi-urban setting in three schools in Vellore city. Data collection: Non probability sample was collected form students studying in standard 9 and 11. Students filled Adolescent Sleep Wake scale (ASWS) and Adolescent Sleep Hygiene Scale (ASHS) translated into vernacular language. Data Analysis: Exploratory Factorial Analysis was used to see the factor loading of various components of the two scales. Confirmatory factorial analysis is subsequently planned for assessing the internal validity of the scales.Results: 557 adolescents were included in the study of 12 – 17 years old. Exploratory factorial analysis of adolescent sleep hygiene scale indicated significant factor loading for 18 items from 28 items originally devised by the authors and has been reconstructed to four domains instead of 9 domains in the original scale namely sleep stability, cognitive – emotional, Physiological - bed time routine - behavioural arousal factor (activites before bedtime and during bed time), Sleep environment (lighting and bed sharing). Factorial analysis of Adolescent sleep wake scale showed factor loading of 18 items out of 28 items in original scale reconstructed into 5 aspects of sleep quality. Conclusions: The factorial analysis gives a reconstructed scale useful for the local population. Further a confirmatory factorial analysis has been subsequently planned to determine the internal consistency of the scale for local population.

Keywords: factorial analysis, sleep hygiene, sleep quality, adolescent sleep scale

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Authors: Wu Peng, Anders Liljerehn, Martin Magnevall

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In metal cutting, tool wear gradually changes the micro geometry of the cutting edge. Today there is a significant gap in understanding the impact these geometrical changes have on the cutting forces which governs tool deflection and heat generation in the cutting zone. Accurate models and understanding of the interaction between the work piece and cutting tool leads to improved accuracy in simulation of the cutting process. These simulations are useful in several application areas, e.g., optimization of insert geometry and machine tool monitoring. This study aims to develop an extended Kienzle force model to account for the effect of rake angle variations and tool flank wear have on the cutting forces. In this paper, the starting point sets from cutting force measurements using orthogonal turning tests of pre-machined flanches with well-defined width, using triangular coated inserts to assure orthogonal condition. The cutting forces have been measured by dynamometer with a set of three different rake angles, and wear progression have been monitored during machining by an optical measuring collaborative robot. The method utilizes the measured cutting forces with the inserts flank wear progression to extend the mechanistic cutting forces model with flank wear as an input parameter. The adapted cutting forces model is validated in a turning process with commercial cutting tools. This adapted cutting forces model shows the significant capability of prediction of cutting forces accounting for tools flank wear and different-rake-angle cutting tool inserts. The result of this study suggests that the nonlinear effect of tools flank wear and interaction between the work piece and the cutting tool can be considered by the developed cutting forces model.

Keywords: cutting force, kienzle model, predictive model, tool flank wear

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Authors: Rishi Agarwal

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Digital twins are emerging as a strong technology used to imitate and monitor physical objects digitally in real time across sectors. It is not only dealing with the digital space, but it is also actuating responses in the physical space in response to the digital space processing like storage, modeling, learning, simulation, and prediction. This paper explores the application of digital twins for enhancing physical security in retail stores. The retail sector still relies on outdated physical security practices like manual monitoring and metal detectors, which are insufficient for modern needs. There is a lack of real-time data and system integration, leading to ineffective emergency response and preventative measures. As retail automation increases, new digital frameworks must control safety without human intervention. To address this, the paper proposes implementing an intelligent digital twin framework. This collects diverse data streams from in-store sensors, surveillance, external sources, and customer devices and then Advanced analytics and simulations enable real-time monitoring, incident prediction, automated emergency procedures, and stakeholder coordination. Overall, the digital twin improves physical security through automation, adaptability, and comprehensive data sharing. The paper also analyzes the pros and cons of implementation of this technology through an Emerging Technology Analysis Canvas that analyzes different aspects of this technology through both narrow and wide lenses to help decision makers in their decision of implementing this technology. On a broader scale, this showcases the value of digital twins in transforming legacy systems across sectors and how data sharing can create a safer world for both retail store customers and owners.

Keywords: digital twin, retail store safety, digital twin in retail, digital twin for physical safety

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant

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Authors: Takuro Kida, Yuichi Kida

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We show a base of the new trend of algorithm mathematically that treats a historical reason of continuous discrimination in the world as well as its solution by introducing new concepts of parallel world that includes an invisible set of errors as its companion. With respect to a matrix operator-filter bank that the matrix operator-analysis-filter bank H and the matrix operator-sampling-filter bank S are given, firstly, we introduce the detailed algorithm to derive the optimum matrix operator-synthesis-filter bank Z that minimizes all the worst-case measures of the matrix operator-error-signals E(ω) = F(ω) − Y(ω) between the matrix operator-input-signals F(ω) and the matrix operator-output signals Y(ω) of the matrix operator-filter bank at the same time. Further, feedback is introduced to the above approximation theory and it is indicated that introducing conversations with feedback does not superior automatically to the accumulation of existing knowledge of signal prediction. Secondly, the concept of category in the field of mathematics is applied to the above optimum signal approximation and is indicated that the category-based approximation theory is applied to the set-theoretic consideration of the recognition of humans. Based on this discussion, it is shown naturally why the narrow perception that tends to create isolation shows an apparent advantage in the short term and, often, why such narrow thinking becomes intimate with discriminatory action in a human group. Throughout these considerations, it is presented that, in order to abolish easy and intimate discriminatory behavior, it is important to create a parallel world of conception where we share the set of invisible error signals, including the words and the consciousness of both worlds.

Keywords: signal prediction, pseudo inverse matrix, artificial intelligence, conditional optimization

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Authors: Tamar Grdzelishvili, Zaza Sinauridze

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Introduction: Preeclampsia is a complication of the second trimester of pregnancy, which is characterized by high morbidity and multiorgan damage. Many complex pathogenic mechanisms are now implicated to be responsible for this disease (1). Preeclampsia is one of the leading causes of maternal mortality worldwide. Statistics are enough to convince you of the seriousness of this pathology: about 100,000 women die of preeclampsia every year. It occurs in 3-14% (varies significantly depending on racial origin or ethnicity and geographical region) of pregnant women, in 75% of cases - in a mild form, and in 25% - in a severe form. During severe pre-eclampsia-eclampsia, perinatal mortality increases by 5 times and stillbirth by 9.6 times. Considering that the only way to treat the disease is to end the pregnancy, the main thing is timely diagnosis and prevention of the disease. Identification of high-risk pregnant women for PE and giving prophylaxis would reduce the incidence of preterm PE. First-trimester screening model developed by the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF), which uses the Bayes-theorem to combine maternal characteristics and medical history together with measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor, has been proven to be effective and have superior screening performance to that of traditional risk factor-based approach for the prediction of PE (2) Methods: Retrospective single center screening study. The study population consisted of women from the Tbilisi maternity hospital “Pineo medical ecosystem” who met the following criteria: they spoke Georgian, English, or Russian and agreed to participate in the study after discussing informed consent and answering questions. Prior to the study, the informed consent forms approved by the Institutional Review Board were obtained from the study subjects. Early assessment of preeclampsia was performed between 11-13 weeks of pregnancy. The following were evaluated: anamnesis, dopplerography of the uterine artery, mean arterial blood pressure, and biochemical parameter: Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A). Individual risk assessment was performed with performed by Fast Screen 3.0 software ThermoFisher scientific. Results: A total of 513 women were recruited and through the study, 51 women were diagnosed with preeclampsia (34.5% in the pregnant women with high risk, 6.5% in the pregnant women with low risk; P<0.000 1). Conclusions: First-trimester screening combining maternal factors with uterine artery Doppler, blood pressure, and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A is useful to predict PE in a routine care setting. More patient studies are needed for final conclusions. The research is still ongoing.

Keywords: first-trimester, preeclampsia, screening, pregnancy-associated plasma protein

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Authors: Vishnu Nagendra, Marten Van Der Veen, Stefania Giodini

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Effective humanitarian logistics operations are a cornerstone in the success of disaster relief operations. However, for effectiveness, they need to be demand driven and supported by adequate data for prioritization. Without this data operations are carried out in an ad hoc manner and eventually become chaotic. The current availability of geospatial data helps in creating models for predictive damage and vulnerability assessment, which can be of great advantage to logisticians to gain an understanding on the nature and extent of the disaster damage. This translates into actionable information on the demand for relief goods, the state of the transport infrastructure and subsequently the priority areas for relief delivery. However, due to the unpredictable nature of disasters, the accuracy in the models need improvement which can be done using remote sensing data from UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) or satellite imagery, which again come with certain limitations. This research addresses the need for a framework to combine data from different sources to support humanitarian logistic operations and prediction models. The focus is on developing a workflow to combine data from satellites and UAVs post a disaster strike. A three-step approach is followed: first, the data requirements for logistics activities are made explicit, which is done by carrying out semi-structured interviews with on field logistics workers. Second, the limitations in current data collection tools are analyzed to develop workaround solutions by following a systems design approach. Third, the data requirements and the developed workaround solutions are fit together towards a coherent workflow. The outcome of this research will provide a new method for logisticians to have immediately accurate and reliable data to support data-driven decision making.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicles, damage prediction models, remote sensing, data driven decision making

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Authors: Natalia Feruleva

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The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

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Authors: Selvam M., Vadthya Poornachandar, Surender Singh

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These Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) aggregates are generally dumped in the open area after the demolition of Asphalt Pavements. The utilization of RAP aggregates in cement concrete pavements may provide several socio-economic-environmental benefits and could embrace the circular economy. The cross recycling of RAP aggregates in the concrete pavement could reduce the consumption of virgin aggregates and saves the fertile land. However, the structural, as well as functional properties of RAP-concrete could be significantly lower than the conventional Pavement Quality Control (PQC) pavements. This warrants judicious selection of RAP fraction (coarse and fine aggregates) along with the accurate proportion of the same for PQC highways. Also, the selection of the RAP fraction and its proportion shall not be solely based on the mechanical properties of RAP-concrete specimens but also governed by the structural and functional behavior of the pavement system. In this study, an effort has been made to predict the optimum RAP fraction and its corresponding proportion for cement concrete pavements by considering the low-volume and high-volume roads. Initially, the effect of inclusions of RAP on the fresh and mechanical properties of concrete pavement mixes is mapped through an extensive literature survey. Almost all the studies available to date are considered for this study. Generally, Indian Roads Congress (IRC) methods are the most widely used design method in India for the analysis of concrete pavements, and the same has been considered for this study. Subsequently, fatigue damage analysis is performed to evaluate the required safe thickness of pavement slab for different fractions of RAP (coarse RAP). Consequently, the performance of RAP-concrete is predicted by employing the AASHTO-1993 model for the following distresses conditions: faulting, cracking, and smoothness. The performance prediction and total cost analysis of RAP aggregates depict that the optimum proportions of coarse RAP aggregates in the PQC mix are 35% and 50% for high volume and low volume roads, respectively.

Keywords: concrete pavement, RAP aggregate, performance prediction, pavement design

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Zaide Montes Ortiz, Jorge Alberto Molina, Alejandro Reyes

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Insects are extremely successful organisms. A sophisticated olfactory system is in part responsible for their survival and reproduction. The detection of volatile organic compounds can positively or negatively affect many behaviors in insects. Compounds such as carbon dioxide (CO2), ammonium, indol, and lactic acid are essential for many species of mosquitoes like Anopheles gambiae in order to locate vertebrate hosts. For instance, in A. gambiae, the olfactory receptor AgOR2 is strongly activated by indol, which accounts for almost 30% of human sweat. On the other hand, in some insects of agricultural importance, the detection and identification of pheromone receptors (PRs) in lepidopteran species has become a promising field for integrated pest management. For example, with the disruption of the pheromone receptor, BmOR1, mediated by transcription activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), the sensitivity to bombykol was completely removed affecting the pheromone-source searching behavior in male moths. Then, the detection and identification of olfactory receptors in the genomes of insects is fundamental to improve our understanding of the ecological interactions, and to provide alternatives in the integrated pests and vectors management. Hence, the objective of this study is to propose a bioinformatic workflow to enhance the detection and identification of potential olfactory receptors in genomes of relevant insects. Applying Hidden Markov models (Hmms) and different computational tools, potential candidates for pheromone receptors in Tuta absoluta were obtained, as well as potential carbon dioxide receptors in Rhodnius prolixus, the main vector of Chagas disease. This study showed the validity of a bioinformatic workflow with a potential to improve the identification of certain olfactory receptors in different orders of insects.

Keywords: bioinformatic workflow, insects, olfactory receptors, protein prediction

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Authors: Mfoniso Udofia Aka

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A seismic refraction and resistivity survey was conducted in Ini Local Government Area, South-South Nigeria, to evaluate the structural setting and groundwater potential. The study involved 20 Vertical Electrical Soundings (VES) using an ABEM Terrameter with a Schlumberger array and a 400-meter electrode spread, analyzed with WinResist software. Concurrently, 20 seismic refraction surveys were performed with a Geometric ES 3000 12-Channel seismograph, employing a 60-meter slant interval. The survey identified three distinct geological layers: top, middle, and lower. Seismic velocities (Vp) ranged from 209 to 500 m/s in the top layer, 221 to 1210 m/s in the middle layer, and 510 to 1700 m/s in the lower layer. Secondary seismic velocities (Vs) ranged from 170 to 410 m/s in the topsoil, 205 to 880 m/s in the middle layer, and 480 to 1120 m/s in the lower layer. Poisson’s ratios varied from -0.029 to -7.709 for the top layer, -0.027 to -6.963 for the middle layer, and -0.144 to -6.324 for the lower layer. The depths of these layers were approximately 1.0 to 3.0 meters for the top layer, 4.0 to 12.0 meters for the middle layer, and 8.0 to 14.5 meters for the lower layer. The topsoil consists of a surficial layer overlaid by reddish/clayey laterite and fine to medium coarse-grained sandy material, identified as the auriferous zone. Resistivity values were 1300 to 3215 Ωm for the topsoil, 720 to 1600 Ωm for the laterite, and 100 to 1350 Ωm for the sandy zone. Aquifer thickness and depth varied, with shallow aquifers ranging from 4.5 to 15.2 meters, medium-depth aquifers from 15.5 to 70.0 meters, and deep aquifers from 4.0 to 70.0 meters. Locations 1, 15, and 13 exhibited favorable water potential with shallow formations, while locations 5, 11, 9, and 14 showed less potential due to the lack of fractured or weathered zones. The auriferous sandy zone indicated significant potential for industrial development. Future surveys should consider using a more robust energy source to enhance data acquisition and accuracy.

Keywords: hydrogeological, aquifer, seismic section geo-electric section, stratigraphy

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

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Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

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Authors: Manju Kanu, Subrata Sinha, Surabhi Johari

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Viral proteins of Ebola viruses belong to one of the best studied viruses; however no effective prevention against EBOV has been developed. Epitope-based vaccines provide a new strategy for prophylactic and therapeutic application of pathogen-specific immunity. A critical requirement of this strategy is the identification and selection of T-cell epitopes that act as vaccine targets. This study describes current methodologies for the selection process, with Ebola virus as a model system. Hence great challenge in the field of ebola virus research is to design universal vaccine. A combination of publicly available bioinformatics algorithms and computational tools are used to screen and select antigen sequences as potential T-cell epitopes of supertypes Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles. MUSCLE and MOTIF tools were used to find out most conserved peptide sequences of viral proteins. Immunoinformatics tools were used for prediction of immunogenic peptides of viral proteins in zaire strains of Ebola virus. Putative epitopes for viral proteins (VP) were predicted from conserved peptide sequences of VP. Three tools NetCTL 1.2, BIMAS and Syfpeithi were used to predict the Class I putative epitopes while three tools, ProPred, IEDB-SMM-align and NetMHCII 2.2 were used to predict the Class II putative epitopes. B cell epitopes were predicted by BCPREDS 1.0. Immunogenic peptides were identified and selected manually by putative epitopes predicted from online tools individually for both MHC classes. Finally sequences of predicted peptides for both MHC classes were looked for common region which was selected as common immunogenic peptide. The immunogenic peptides were found for viral proteins of Ebola virus: epitopes FLESGAVKY, SSLAKHGEY. These predicted peptides could be promising candidates to be used as target for vaccine design.

Keywords: epitope, b cell, immunogenicity, ebola

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Authors: Michael Campbell, Malaz Elsaddig, Kevin Jones

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Background: Despite encouraging progress, global maternal mortality has remained stubbornly high since the declaration of the Millennium development goals. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for well over half of maternal deaths with Post-Partum Haemorrhage (PPH) being the lead cause. ‘In house’ simulation training delivered by local doctors may be a sustainable approach for improving emergency obstetric care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Train-the-Trainer (TtT) model in a rural Ugandan hospital to ascertain whether it can feasibly improve practitioners’ management of PPH. Methods: Three Ugandan doctors underwent a training course to enable them to design and deliver simulation training. These doctors used MamaNatalie® models to simulate PPH scenarios for midwives, nurses and medical students. The main outcome was improvement in participants’ knowledge and confidence, assessed using self-reported scores on a 10-point scale. Results: The TtT model produced significant improvements in the confidence and knowledge scores of the ten participants. The mean confidence score rose significantly (p=0.0005) from 6.4 to 8.6 following the simulation training. There was also a significant increase in the mean knowledge score from 7.2 to 9.0 (p=0.04). Medical students demonstrated the greatest overall increase in confidence scores whilst increases in knowledge scores were largest amongst nurses. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that a TtT model can be used in a low resource setting to improve healthcare professionals’ confidence and knowledge in managing obstetric emergencies. This Train-the-Trainer model represents a sustainable approach to addressing skill deficits in low resource settings. We believe that its expansion across healthcare institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa will help to reduce the region’s high maternal mortality rate and step closer to achieving the ambitions of the Millennium development goals.

Keywords: low resource setting, post-partum haemorrhage, simulation training, train the trainer

Procedia PDF Downloads 177