Search results for: production forecasting

Authors: Chandan Pramanik, Bikramjit Chanda

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Large metal mines operated with open-cast mining methods must transition to underground mining at the conclusion of the operation; however, this requires a period of a difficult time when production convergence due to interference between the two mining methods. A transition model with collaborative mining operations is presented and established in this work, based on the case of the South Kaliapani Underground Project, to address these technical issues of inadequate production security and other mining challenges during the transition phase and beyond. By integrating the technology of the small-scale Drift and Fill method and Highly productive Sub Level Open Stoping at deep section, this hybrid mining concept tries to eliminate major bottlenecks and offers an optimized production profile with the safe and sustainable operation. Considering every geo-mining aspect, this study offers a genuine and precise technical deliberation for the transition from open pit to underground mining.

Keywords: drift and fill, geo-mining aspect, sublevel open stoping, underground mining method

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Authors: Babatunde Oluwamayokun Soyoye

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This technology, whose development revolves round culture, tradition, and prevailing needs of the people, is seen as a solution in promoting development in poor rural communities in many parts of Nigeria. The research was based on one of the food security agenda of the Federal Government of Nigeria by developing a motorized multi-grain crop planter suitable for planting operations in tropical soils. The ergonomic design is tailored towards the ease of planting operations for would-be users, improve crop yields and profitability by minimizing the cost of production. Some properties of the grain crops were determined and were used to develop and assemble the locally-made motorized planter. These properties were used in establishing the design criteria of various components of the planter. The geometric mean diameter of the maize, cowpea, groundnut, and soybean were 8.26 mm, 8.72 mm, 9.51 mm and 6.52 mm respectively, with respective groove depths of 8 mm, 7 mm, 9 mm and 6 mm. The results obtained from the evaluation of the planter confirmed that the planter has a uniform discharge and application rates. The field capacity of the planter was determined to be 0.187 ha/h. Also, the average performance efficiency of the planter was 95.5%, with the average discharge and application rates of 7.86 kg/h and 42.1 kg/ha, respectively. The motorized multi-grain planter can be used in increasing food production, reduce time, cost of production, and can become a major tool to fast-track the food security agenda of the government of Nigeria.

Keywords: design and fabrication, food security, grain crop, motorized planter

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Hamim Abbas, Jean Luc-Hornick, Isabelle Dufrasne

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Feed costs constitute over 60% of total expenses in organic layer poultry production, with feed protein supply being a significant concern. Alfalfa-based dehydrated silage pellets are mainly diets composed of leaves (ABSP), which are non-conventional protein sources that could enhance profits by reducing feed costs and ensuring consistent availability. This experiment studied the effects on the performances of Novogen Brown light layers of a commercial control diet replaced with 10% ABSP. After a 21-day trial, this diet (ABSP) has improved the laying rate, yolk color of eggs, feed conversion rate, ω−3 (PUFAs) and ω−6/ω−3 ratio (P<0.05) while the body weight and egg weight were degraded with the substitution of the ABSP in the diet(P>0.05). The laying rate showed a tendency to increase (P=0.06). These findings suggest that ABSP can replace at least 10% of the feed in organic layer diets without compromising production parameters negatively.

Keywords: alfalfa, silage, pellet, organic layers

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Authors: Adeyemi Isaac Sanusi, Gueguim E. B. Kana

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Nanoparticles have received attention of the scientific community due to their biotechnological potentials. They exhibit advantageous size, shape and concentration-dependent catalytic, stabilizing, immunoassays and immobilization properties. This study investigates the impact of metallic oxide nanoparticles (NPs) on ethanol production by Saccharomyces cerevisiae BY4743. Nine different nanoparticles were synthesized using precipitation method and microwave treatment. The nanoparticles synthesized were characterized by Fourier Transform Infra-Red spectroscopy (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Fermentation processes were carried out at varied NPs concentrations (0 – 0.08 wt%). Highest ethanol concentrations were achieved after 24 h using Cobalt NPs (5.07 g/l), Copper NPs (4.86 g/l) and Manganese NPs (4.74 g/l) at 0.01 wt% NPs concentrations, which represent 13%, 8.7% and 5.4% increase respectively over the control (4.47 g/l). The lowest ethanol concentration (0.17 g/l) was obtained when 0.08 wt% of Silver NPs was used. And lower ethanol concentrations were observed at higher NPs concentration. Ethanol concentration decrease after 24 h for all the processes. In all set up with NPs, the pH was observed to be stable and the stability was directly proportional to nanoparticles concentrations. These findings suggest that the presence of some of the NPs in the bioprocesses has catalytic and pH stabilizing potential. Ethanol production by Saccharomyces cerevisiae BY4743 was enhanced in the presence of Cobalt NPs, Copper NPs and Manganese NPs. Optimization study using response surface methodology (RSM) will further elucidate the impact of these nanoparticles on bioethanol production.

Keywords: agitation, bioethanol, nanoparticles concentration, optimization, pH value

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Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

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The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

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Authors: Reginawanti Hindersah, Widiya Septiani Perdanawati, Dewi Azizah Sulaksana, Hidiyah Ayu Ma’rufah

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Maize in some region in East Nusa Tenggara Indonesia bordering Republic Democratic of Timor Leste is important local food crop and commonly cultivated using conventional method without appropriate plant nutrition system so that productivity is still low. A way to enhance local corn yield is adding biofertilizer containing nitrogen (N2) fixing bacteria such as Azotobacter. The purpose of this research was to determine N2 fixation, cytokinin as well as exopolysachharide production capacity of six indigenous Azotobacter strains in pure culture. The N2 fixation capacities of native 3 day old Azotobacter strains added to Ashby Media varied from 0.01 to 0.39 µM/g/hour. Cytokinin production of these strain in liquid culture of N-free Media was 0.11 to 40.04 ppm while exopolysachharide content in liquid culture of Vermani Media varied from 0.4 to 27.3 g/L. This results demonstrate that some local Azotobacter strains might be used as biofertilizer.

Keywords: azotobacter, local isolate, N fixation, phythohormone, exopolysaccaride

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Authors: Ugbajah Maryjane

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The study examined the production of grass cutter and the constraints in Anambra state, Nigeria. Specifically, it described socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, determinants of net farm income and constraints to grass cutter production. Multistage and random sampling methods were used to select 50 respondents for this study. Primary data were collected by means of structured questionnaire. Non-parametric and parametric statistical tools including frequency percentage mean ranking counts, cost and returns and returns and multiple regression were deployed for data analysis. Majority 84% produce on small scale, 64 % had formal education 68% had 3-4 years of farming experience hence small scaled production were common. The income (returns) on investment was used as index of profitability, gross margin (#5,972,280), net farm income (#5,327,055.2) net return on investment (2.5) and return on investment 3.1. Net farm income was significantly influence by stock size and years of farming experience. Grass cutter farmers production problem would be ameliorated by the expression of extension education awareness campaigns to discourage unhealthy practices such as indiscriminant bush burning, use of toxic chemicals as baits, and provision of credits to the farmers.

Keywords: socio-economic factors, profitability, awareness, toxic chemicals, credits

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Authors: Deokyeong Choe, Keonwook Nam, Young Hoon Roh

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Wood waste is a potentially significant resource for economic and environment-friendly recycling. Wood waste represents a key sustainable source of biomass for transformation into bioethanol. Unfortunately, wood waste is highly recalcitrant for biotransformation, which limits its use and prevents economically viable conversion into bioethanol. As a result, an effective pretreatment is necessary to degrade cellulose of the wood waste, which improves the accessibility of cellulase. In this work, a H₃PO₄-acetone pretreatment was selected among the various pretreatment methods and used to dissolve cellulose and lignin. When the H₃PO₄ and acetone were used, 5–6% of the wood waste was found to be very appropriate for saccharification. Also, when the enzymatic saccharification was conducted in the mixture of the wood waste and 0.05 M citrate buffer solution, glucose and xylose were measured to be 80.2 g/L and 9.2 g/L respectively. Furthermore, ethanol obtained after 70 h of fermentation by S. cerevisiae was 30.4 g/L. As a result, the conversion yield from wood waste to bioethanol was calculated to be 57.4%. These results show that the pretreated wood waste can be used as good feedstocks for bioethanol production and that the H₃PO₄-acetone pretreatment can effectively increase the yield of ethanol production.

Keywords: wood waste, H₃PO₄-acetone, bioethanol, fermentation

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Authors: Sawarni Hasibuan, Rudi Effendi Listyanto

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The industrial sector is the largest consumer of energy consumption in Indonesia. The ceramics industry includes one of seven industries categorized as an energy-intensive industry. Energy costs on the ceramic floor production process reached 40 percent of the total production cost. The kiln is one of the machines in the ceramic industry that consumes the most gas energy reach 51 percent of gas consumption in ceramic production. The purpose of this research is to make improvement of energy consumption in kiln machine part with the innovation of burner tube to support the sustainability of Indonesian ceramics industry. The tube burner is technically designed to be able to raise the temperature and stabilize the air pressure in the burner so as to facilitate the combustion process in the kiln machine which implies the efficiency of gas consumption required. The innovation of the burner tube also has an impact on the decrease of the combustion chamber pressure in the kiln and managed to keep the pressure of the combustion chamber according to the operational standard of the kiln; consequently, the smoke fan motor power can be lowered and the kiln electric energy consumption is also more efficient. The innovation of burner tube succeeded in saving consume of gas and electricity respectively by 0.0654 GJ and 1,693 x 10-3 GJ for every ton of ceramics produced. Improvement of this energy consumption not only implies the cost savings of production but also supports the sustainability of the Indonesian ceramics industry.

Keywords: sustainable ceramic industry, burner tube, kiln, energy efficiency

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Authors: N. Moazami, R. Ranjbar, A. Ashori

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Out of hundreds of microalgal strains reported, only very few of them are capable for production of high content of lipid. Therefore, the key technical challenges include identifying the strains with the highest growth rates and oil contents with adequate composition, which were the main aims of this work. From 147 microalgae screened for high biomass and oil productivity, the Nannochloropsis sp. PTCC 6016, which attained 52% lipid content, was selected for large scale cultivation in Persian Gulf Knowledge Island. Nannochloropsis strain PTCC 6016 belongs to Eustigmatophyceae (Phylum heterokontophyta) isolated from Mangrove forest area of Qheshm Island and Persian Gulf (Iran) in 2008. The strain PTCC 6016 had an average biomass productivity of 2.83 g/L/day and 52% lipid content. The biomass productivity and the oil production potential could be projected to be more than 200 tons biomass and 100000 L oil per hectare per year, in an outdoor algal culture (300 day/year) in the Persian Gulf climate.

Keywords: biofuels, microalgae, Nannochloropsis, raceway open pond, bio-jet

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Authors: Behnam Mahdiyan Nasl

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In a lab-scale research, the effects of feeding whey into the biogas system and how to solve the probable problems arising were analysed. In the study a semi-continuous glass reactor, having a total capacity of 13 liters and having a working capacity of 10 liters, was placed in an incubator, and the temperature was tried to be held at 38 °C. At first, the reactor was operated by adding 5 liters of animal manure and water with a ratio of 1/1. By passing time, the production rate of the gas reduced intensively that on the fourth day there was no production of gas and the system stopped working. In this condition, the pH was adjusted and by adding NaOH, it was increased from 5.4 to 7. On 48th day, the first gas measurement was done and an amount of 12.07 % of CH₄ was detected. After making buffer in the ambient, the number of bacteria existing in the cattle’s manure and contributing to the gas production was thought to be not adequate, and up to 20 % of its volume 2 liters of mud was added to the reactor. 7 days after adding the anaerobic mud, second gas measurement was carried out, and biogas including 43 % CH₄ was obtained. From the 61st day of the study, the cheese whey with the animal manure was started to be added with an amount of 40 mL per day. However, by passing time, the raising of the microorganisms existed in the whey (especially Ni and Co), the percent of methane in the biogas decreased. In fact, 2 weeks after adding PAS, the gas measurement was done and 36,97 % CH₄ was detected. 0,06 mL Ni-Co (to gain a concentration of 0.05 mg/L in the reactor’s mixture) solution was added to the system for 15 days. To find out the effect of the solution on archaea, 7 days after stopping addition of the solution, methane gas was found to have a 9,03 % increase and reach 46 %. Lastly, the effects of adding molasses to the reactor were investigated. The effects of its activity on the bacteria was analysed by adding 4 grams of it to the system. After adding molasses in 10 days, according to the last measurement, the amount of methane gas reached up to 49%.

Keywords: biogas, cheese whey, cattle manure, energy

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Authors: Sukru Merey, Caglar Sinayuc

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Gas hydrate deposits which are found in deep ocean sediments and in permafrost regions are supposed to be a fossil fuel reserve for the future. The Black Sea is also considered rich in terms of gas hydrates. It abundantly contains gas hydrates as methane (CH₄~80 to 99.9%) source. In this study, by using the literature, seismic and other data of the Black Sea such as salinity, porosity of the sediments, common gas type, temperature distribution and pressure gradient, the optimum gas production method for the Black Sea gas hydrates was selected as mainly depressurization method. Numerical simulations were run to analyze gas production from gas hydrate deposited in turbidites in the Black Sea by depressurization.

Keywords: CH4 hydrate, Black Sea hydrates, gas hydrate experiments, HydrateResSim

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Authors: I. Sonia d’Apolito, Bianca Sisinni, Mirko Grimaldi, Barbara Gili Fivela

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The American English contrast /ɑ-ʌ/ (cop-cup) is difficult to be produced by Italian learners since they realize L2-/ɑ-ʌ/ as L1-/ɔ-a/ respectively, due to differences in phonetic-phonological systems and also in grapheme-to-phoneme conversion rules. In this paper, we try to answer the following research questions: Can a short training improve the production of English /ɑ-ʌ/ by Italian learners? Is a perceptual training better than an articulatory (ultrasound - US) training? Thus, we compare a perceptual training with an US articulatory one to observe: 1) the effects of short trainings on L2-/ɑ-ʌ/ productions; 2) if the US articulatory training improves the pronunciation better than the perceptual training. In this pilot study, 9 Salento-Italian monolingual adults participated: 3 subjects performed a 1-hour perceptual training (ES-P); 3 subjects performed a 1-hour US training (ES-US); and 3 control subjects did not receive any training (CS). Verbal instructions about the phonetic properties of L2-/ɑ-ʌ/ and L1-/ɔ-a/ and their differences (representation on F1-F2 plane) were provided during both trainings. After these instructions, the ES-P group performed an identification training based on the High Variability Phonetic Training procedure, while the ES-US group performed the articulatory training, by means of US video of tongue gestures in L2-/ɑ-ʌ/ production and dynamic view of their own tongue movements and position using a probe under their chin. The acoustic data were analyzed and the first three formants were calculated. Independent t-tests were run to compare: 1) /ɑ-ʌ/ in pre- vs. post-test respectively; /ɑ-ʌ/ in pre- and post-test vs. L1-/a-ɔ/ respectively. Results show that in the pre-test all speakers realize L2-/ɑ-ʌ/ as L1-/ɔ-a/ respectively. Contrary to CS and ES-P groups, the ES-US group in the post-test differentiates the L2 vowels from those produced in the pre-test as well as from the L1 vowels, although only one ES-US subject produces both L2 vowels accurately. The articulatory training seems more effective than the perceptual one since it favors the production of vowels in the correct direction of L2 vowels and differently from the similar L1 vowels.

Keywords: L2 vowel production, perceptual training, articulatory training, ultrasound

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Authors: Utkarsh Goley

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Leather has been a valued material for clothing and accessories for centuries, and its use has evolved along with fashion trends and technological advancements. From ancient times when leather was used for practical purposes, to the modern fashion industry, where it is used for both functional and decorative purposes, leather has undergone significant changes in its production and usage. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness of ethical and sustainable fashion, leading to a shift towards alternative materials and production methods. The leather industry has responded to this by exploring new techniques and materials, such as vegetable-tanned leather and leather substitutes made from plant-based materials. The evolution of leather in the fashion industry is also closely tied to cultural and social trends. The use of leather has been associated with rebellion and counterculture in the past, and today it is often used to evoke a sense of luxury and sophistication. Despite the challenges and controversies surrounding its production, leather continues to be a popular material in the fashion industry, with designers and consumers alike valuing its durability, versatility, and aesthetic appeal. As fashion continues to evolve, so will the role and use of leather in the industry. This research paper provides a detailed overview of the evolution of leather in the fashion industry throughout the different decades and centuries.

Keywords: evolution, fashion, leather, sustainable

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Authors: Mulanga Luscious Mulaudzi, Ignatious Ncube

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In nature, enzymatic degradation of lignocellulose is more efficient compared to in vivo bioprocessing. Thus, a co-culture should enable production of more efficient enzyme preparations that would mimic the natural decomposition of lignocellulose. The aim of the study was to establish a microbial co-culture for the production of highly active cellulase preparations. The objectives were to determine the use of a variety of culture media to isolate cellulose degrading microorganisms from decomposing banana pseudo stem and to optimize production of cellulase by co-cultures of microorganisms producing high levels of cellulose. Screening of fungal isolates was done on carboxylmethylcellulose agar plates which were stained with Congo red to show hydrolytic activity of the isolates. Co-culture and mixed culture of these microorganisms were cultured using Mendel salts with Avicel as the carbon source. Cultures were incubated at 30 °C with shaking at 200 rpm for 240 hrs. Enzyme activity assays were performed to determine endoglycosidase and β-glucosidase. Mixed culture of fungi-dead bacterial cells showed to be the best co-culture/ mixed culture to produce higher levels of cellulase activity in submerged fermentations (SmF) using Avicel™ as a carbon source. The study concludes use microorganism 5A in co-cultures is highly recommended in order to produce high amounts of β-glucosidases, no matter the combination used.

Keywords: avicel, co-culture, submerged fermentation, pseudostem

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Authors: Uchenna Egwu, Paul Jonathan Sallis

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Perennial ryegrass is an abundant renewable lignocellulosic biofuel feedstock for biomethane production through anaerobic digestion (AD). In this study, six anaerobic continuously stirred tank reactors (CSTRs) were set up in three pairs. Each pair of the CSTRs was then used to study the effects of operating temperatures – psychrophilic, mesophilic, and thermophilic, and optimum pH on the specific methane production (SMP) of the ryegrass during AD under discontinuous daily feeding conditions. The reactors were fed at an organic loading rate (OLR) ranging from 1-1.5 kgVS.L⁻¹d⁻¹ and hydraulic residence time, HRT=20 days for 140 days. The pH of the digesters was maintained at the range of 6.8-7.2 using 1 M NH₄HCO₃ solution, but this was replaced with biomass ash-extracts from day 105-140. The results obtained showed that the mean SMP of ryegrass measured between HRT 3 and 4 were 318.4, 425.4 and 335 N L CH₄ kg⁻¹VS.d⁻¹ for the psychrophilic (25 ± 2°C), mesophilic (40 ± 1°C) and thermophilic (60 ± 1°C) temperatures respectively. It was also observed that the buffering ability of the reactors increased with operating temperature, probably due to an increase in the solubility of ammonium bicarbonate (NH₄HCO₃) with temperature. The reactors also achieved a mean VS destruction of 61.9, 68.5 and 63.5%, respectively, which signifies that the mesophilic reactors achieved the highest specific methane production (SMP), while the psychrophilic reactors achieved the lowest. None of the reactors attained steady-state condition due to the discontinuous daily feeding times, and therefore, such feeding practice may not be the most effective for maximum biogas production over long periods of time. The addition of NH₄HCO₃ as supplement provided a good buffering condition in these AD digesters, but the digesters failed in the long run due to inhibition from the accumulation of free ammonia, which later led to decrease in pH, acidification, and souring of the digesters. However, the addition of biomass ash extracts was shown to potentially revive failed AD reactors by providing an adequate buffering and essential trace nutrient supplements necessary for optimal bacterial growth.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, discontinuous feeding, perennial ryegrass, specific methane production, supplements, temperature

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Authors: Eman. K. Ramadan, Abdelgawad. S. El-Tahawy

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of calving season on the production and economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. Our study was performed at dairy production farms in the Alexandria, Behera, and Kafr El-Sheikh provinces of Egypt from summer 2010 to winter 2013. The randomly selected dairy farms had herds consisting of Baladi, Holstein-Friesian, or cross-bred (Baladi × Holstein-Friesian) cows. The data were collected from production records and responses to a structured questionnaire. The average total return differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the different cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average total return was highest for the Holstein-Friesian cows that calved in the winter (29106.42 EGP/cow/year), and it was lowest for Baladi cows that calved in the summer (12489.79 EGP/cow/year). Differences in total returns between the cows that calved in the winter or summer or between the foreign and native breeds, as well as variations in calf prices, might have contributed to the differences in milk yield. The average net profit per cow differed significantly (P < 0.05) between the cattle breeds and calving seasons. The average net profit values for the Baladi cows that calved in the winter or summer were 2413 and 2994.96 EGP/cow/year, respectively, and those for the Holstein-Friesian cows were 10744.17 and 7860.56 EGP/cow/year, respectively, whereas those for the cross-bred cows were 10174.86 and 7571.33 EGP/cow/year, respectively. The variations in net profit might have resulted from variation in the availability or price of feed materials, milk prices, or sales volumes. Our results show that the breed and calving season of dairy cows significantly affected the economic efficiency of dairy farms in Egypt. The cows that calved in the winter produced more milk than those that calved in the summer, which may have been the result of seasonal influences, such as temperature, humidity, management practices, and the type of feed or green fodder available.

Keywords: calving season, economic, production, efficiency, dairy

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Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, , J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation biorefinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of biofuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bioethanol is by far the most widely used biofuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bioethanol production were solved. Biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bioethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flowsheet development is the key element of the bioethanol process, in this work, a biorefinery (bioethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behaviour of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bioethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive biorefinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bioethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bioethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates that the annexed biorefinery can be self-energy sufficient when 35% of feedstock (tops/trash) bypass the biorefinery process and directly be loaded to the boiler to produce sufficient steam and power for sugar mill and biorefinery plant.

Keywords: biorefinery, self-energy sufficiency, tops/trash, bioethanol, electricity

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Authors: Md. Monjurul Islam, Tofael Ahamed, Ryozo Noguchi

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Progress continues in the fight against hunger, yet an unacceptably large number of people still lack food they need for an active and healthy life. Bangladesh is one of the rising countries in the South-Asia but still lots of people are food insecure. In the last few years, Bangladesh has significant achievements in food grain production but still food security at national to individual levels remain a matter of major concern. Ensuring food security for all is one of the major challenges that Bangladesh faces today, especially production of rice in the flood and poverty prone areas. Northern part is more vulnerable than any other part of Bangladesh. To ensure food security, one of the best way is to increase domestic production. To increase production, it is necessary to secure lands for achieving optimum utilization of resources. One of the measures is to identify the vulnerable and potential areas using Land Suitability Assessment (LSA) to increase rice production in the poverty prone areas. Therefore, the aim of the study was to identify the suitable sites for food grain crop rice production in the poverty prone areas located at the northern part of Bangladesh. Lack of knowledge on the best combination of factors that suit production of rice has contributed to the low production. To fulfill the research objective, a multi-criteria analysis was done and produced a suitable map for crop production with the help of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Primary and secondary data were collected from ground truth information and relevant offices. The suitability levels for each factor were ranked based on the structure of FAO land suitability classification as: Currently Not Suitable (N2), Presently Not Suitable (N1), Marginally Suitable (S3), Moderately Suitable (S2) and Highly Suitable (S1). The suitable sites were identified using spatial analysis and compared with the recent raster image from Google Earth Pro® to validate the reliability of suitability analysis. For producing a suitability map for rice farming using GIS and multi-criteria analysis tool, AHP was used to rank the relevant factors, and the resultant weights were used to create the suitability map using weighted sum overlay tool in ArcGIS 10.3®. Then, the suitability map for rice production in the study area was formed. The weighted overly was performed and found that 22.74 % (1337.02 km2) of the study area was highly suitable, while 28.54% (1678.04 km2) was moderately suitable, 14.86% (873.71 km2) was marginally suitable, and 1.19% (69.97 km2) was currently not suitable for rice farming. On the other hand, 32.67% (1920.87 km2) was permanently not suitable which occupied with settlements, rivers, water bodies and forests. This research provided information at local level that could be used by farmers to select suitable fields for rice production, and then it can be applied to other crops. It will also be helpful for the field workers and policy planner who serves in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: AHP, GIS, spatial analysis, land suitability

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Authors: Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Shaghayegh Rezaee Amiri

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This paper presents a methodology for serial production planning problem in wire and cable manufacturing process that addresses the problem of input-output imbalance in different consecutive stations, hoping to minimize the halt of machines in each stage. To this end, a linear Goal Programming (GP) model is developed, in which four main categories of constraints as per the number of runs per machine, machines’ sequences, acceptable inventories of machines at the end of each period, and the necessity of fulfillment of the customers’ orders are considered. The model is formulated based upon on the real data obtained from IKO TAK Company, an important supplier of wire and cable for oil and gas and automotive industries in Iran. By solving the model in GAMS software the optimal number of runs, end-of-period inventories, and the possible minimum idle time for each machine are calculated. The application of the numerical results in the target company has shown the efficiency of the proposed model and the solution in decreasing the lead time of the end product delivery to the customers by 20%. Accordingly, the developed model could be easily applied in wire and cable companies for the aim of optimal production planning to reduce the halt of machines in manufacturing stages.

Keywords: goal programming approach, GP, production planning, serial manufacturing process, wire and cable industry

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Masuod Homayounifar

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According to 1404 forecasting documentation, among the most fundamental ways of Iran’s success in competition with other regional countries are innovations, efficiency enhancements and domestic productivity. Therefore, in this study, the energy consumption efficiency of Iran and the neighbor countries has been measured in the period between 2007-2012 considering the simultaneous economic activities, CO2 emission, and consumption of energy through data envelopment analysis of undesirable output. The results of the study indicated that the energy efficiency changes in both Iran and the average neighbor countries has been on a descending trend and Iran’s energy efficiency status is not desirable compared to the other countries in the region.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental, undesirable output, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Ahmed Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ali Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ahmed Al-Shafie

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In this study, genetic programming (GP) technique has been investigated in prediction of set of rainfall-runoff data. To assess the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Correlation Coefficient (CC), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Correlation of Efficiency (CE). The principle aim of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and robust approach for predict of rainfall-runoff which could reduce the cost and labour for measuring these parameters. This research concentrates on the Johor River in Johor State, Malaysia.

Keywords: genetic programming, prediction, rainfall-runoff, Malaysia

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Authors: V. D. Povolockiy, V. E. Roshchin, Y. Kapelyushin

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Smelting of copper matte is followed by production of a large amount of slag. This slag mostly contains silicates and can be utilized in a construction industry. In addition to silicates it also contains Fe; if the Fe content is high, the density of the silicate phases increases and such a slag cannot be used as an additive for the concrete. Furthermore, slags obtained during copper matte production contain copper, sulphur, zinc and some other elements. Fe is the element with the highest price in these slags. An extraction of Fe is possible even using the conventional methods, e.g., the addition of slag to the charge materials during production of sinter for the blast furnace smelting. However, in this case, the blast furnace hot metal would accumulate sulphur and copper which is very harmful impurity for the steelmaking. An accumulation of copper by the blast furnace hot metal is unacceptable, as copper cannot be removed during further steelmaking operations having a critical effect on the properties of steel. In present work, the technological scheme for non-waste utilization of the copper smelting slags has been suggested and experimentally confirmed. This scheme includes a solid state reduction of Fe and smelting for the separation of cast iron and slag. During solid state reduction, the zinc vapor was trapped. After the reduction and smelting operations, the cast iron containing copper was used for the production of metal balls with increased mechanical properties allowing their utilization for milling of ore minerals. Such a cast iron could also be applied in the production of special types of steel with copper. The silicate slag freed from Fe might be used as a propping agent in the oil industry, or granulated for application as an additive for concrete in a construction industry. Thereby, the suggested products for a Mini Mill plant with non-waste utilization of the copper smelting slags are cast iron grinding balls for the ore minerals, special types of steel with copper, silicate slag utilized as an additive for the concrete and propping agents for the oil industry.

Keywords: utilization of copper slag, cast iron, grinding balls, propping agents

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Authors: Astorga-Trejo Rebeca, Fonseca-Peralta Héctor Manuel, Beltrán-Arredondo Laura Ivonne, Castro-Martínez Claudia

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The use of biomass as feedstock for the production of fuels and other chemicals of interest is an ever-growing accepted option in the way to the development of biorefinery complexes; in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, two million tons of residues from corn crops are produced every year, most of which can be converted to bioethanol and other products through biotechnological conversion using yeast and other microorganisms. Therefore, the objective of this work was to take advantage of corn stover and evaluate its potential as a substrate for the production of second-generation bioethanol (2G), enzymes, and xylitol. To produce bioethanol 2G, an acid-alkaline pretreatment was carried out prior to saccharification and fermentation. The microorganisms used for the production of enzymes, as well as for the production of xylitol, were isolated and characterized in our workgroup. Statistical analysis was performed using Design Expert version 11.0. The results showed that it is possible to obtain 2G bioethanol employing corn stover as a carbon source and Saccharomyces cerevisiae ItVer01 and Candida intermedia CBE002 with yields of 0.42 g and 0.31 g, respectively. It was also shown that C. intermedia has the ability to produce xylitol with a good yield (0.46 g/g). On the other hand, qualitative and quantitative studies showed that the native strains of Fusarium equiseti (0.4 IU/mL - xylanase), Bacillus velezensis (1.2 IU/mL – xylanase and 0.4 UI/mL - amylase) and Penicillium funiculosum (1.5 IU / mL - cellulases) have the capacity to produce xylanases, amylases or cellulases using corn stover as raw material. This study allowed us to demonstrate that it is possible to use corn stover as a carbon source, a low-cost raw material with high availability in our country, to obtain bioproducts of industrial interest, using processes that are more environmentally friendly and sustainable. It is necessary to continue the optimization of each bioprocess.

Keywords: biomass, corn stover, biorefinery, bioethanol 2G, enzymes, xylitol

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

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Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Zelikha Labbani

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Since its creation in 1964 by Guha and Maheshwari in India on Datura innoxia Mill, in vitro androgenesis has become the method of choice in the production of doubled haploid in many species. However in durum wheat, the Doubled haploid plant breeding programs remained limited due to the low production of androgenetic embryos and converting them into fertile green plants. We describe here an efficient method for inducing embryos and regenerating green plants directly from isolated microspores of durum wheat.

Keywords: Durum wheat, haploid embryos, on in vitro, pretreatment

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Authors: Wilfred Isak April, Anthony Adenyanju

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Research has proven that no other beverage has been adored and criticized at the same time as wine. It is important to reiterate that a selected grape production that results in the manufacturing of wine should be scrutinized with the greatest care. In addition, it should be laid down until optimum maturity, carefully selected for serving and ritually tasted by likeminded individuals. This paper aims to explore the entrepreneurial opportunities available through wine production in Namibia. In our daily lives, to the naked eye, consumers usually buy a bottle of wine according to affordability and what is on offer at the moment, sometimes get themselves intoxicated and also finish the bottle on the same day it has been purchased. When taking this as a comparison to those who are accustomed to grape production and wine-producing regions, it is usually a beverage purchased from the local produce cooperative, resembling a dispenser from a petrol pump at a fuel/gas station, usually taken home more than 5 liters at a particular point in time and enjoy it with a meal. It is very important to highlight that grapes are a non-climatic type of fruit, which usually occurs in clusters. Bringing it closer to context, this paper is based on the Republic of Namibia, which is a developing economy with so much potential. A qualitative research methodology will be applied with a purposive sampling technique. Moreover, in this study, a sample of 50 grape farmers will be interviewed. Data will be collected through in-depth interviews and thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The envisaged results clearly illustrate that grape production contributes significantly not only to households but also to the larger economy. Studies of this nature are of crucial importance to Namibia since the country became a signatory of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1993 and has also become a subsequent member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) subsequent to its creation after signing the Marrakech agreement in 1994. Given the latter mentioned, Namibia has made a commitment to the directives of WTO, meaning Namibian manufacturers have to compete in the global market.

Keywords: wine production, entrepreneurship, innovation, development, Namibia, internalisation, creativity

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