Search results for: probability of failure

Authors: S. Mohamed, D. Gonzalez, C. Sayada, P. Halfon

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Drug resistance mutations are routinely detected using standard Sanger sequencing, which does not detect minor variants with a frequency below 20%. The impact of detecting minor variants generated by ultra-deep sequencing (UDS) on HIV drug-resistance (DR) interpretations has not yet been studied. Fifty HIV-1 patients who experienced virological failure were included in this retrospective study. The HIV-1 UDS protocol allowed the detection and quantification of HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase variants related to genotypes A, B, C, E, F, and G. DeepChek®-HIV simplified DR interpretation software was used to compare Sanger sequencing and UDS. The total time required for the UDS protocol was found to be approximately three times longer than Sanger sequencing with equivalent reagent costs. UDS detected all of the mutations found by population sequencing and identified additional resistance variants in all patients. An analysis of DR revealed a total of 643 and 224 clinically relevant mutations by UDS and Sanger sequencing, respectively. Three resistance mutations with > 20% prevalence were detected solely by UDS: A98S (23%), E138A (21%) and V179I (25%). A significant difference in the DR interpretations for 19 antiretroviral drugs was observed between the UDS and Sanger sequencing methods. Y181C and T215Y were the most frequent mutations associated with interpretation differences. A combination of UDS and DeepChek® software for the interpretation of DR results would help clinicians provide suitable treatments. A cut-off of 1% allowed a better characterisation of the viral population by identifying additional resistance mutations and improving the DR interpretation.

Keywords: HIV-1, ultra-deep sequencing, Sanger sequencing, drug resistance

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Authors: Dimitriya A. Mihaylova, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis, Georgi L. Iliev

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One possible approach for maintaining the security of communication systems relies on Physical Layer Security mechanisms. However, in wireless time division duplex systems, where uplink and downlink channels are reciprocal, the channel estimate procedure is exposed to attacks known as pilot contamination, with the aim of having an enhanced data signal sent to the malicious user. The Shifted 2-N-PSK method involves two random legitimate pilots in the training phase, each of which belongs to a constellation, shifted from the original N-PSK symbols by certain degrees. In this paper, legitimate pilots’ offset values and their influence on the detection capabilities of the Shifted 2-N-PSK method are investigated. As the implementation of the technique depends on the relation between the shift angles rather than their specific values, the optimal interconnection between the two legitimate constellations is investigated. The results show that no regularity exists in the relation between the pilot contamination attacks (PCA) detection probability and the choice of offset values. Therefore, an adversary who aims to obtain the exact offset values can only employ a brute-force attack but the large number of possible combinations for the shifted constellations makes such a type of attack difficult to successfully mount. For this reason, the number of optimal shift value pairs is also studied for both 100% and 98% probabilities of detecting pilot contamination attacks. Although the Shifted 2-N-PSK method has been broadly studied in different signal-to-noise ratio scenarios, in multi-cell systems the interference from the signals in other cells should be also taken into account. Therefore, the inter-cell interference impact on the performance of the method is investigated by means of a large number of simulations. The results show that the detection probability of the Shifted 2-N-PSK decreases inversely to the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio.

Keywords: channel estimation, inter-cell interference, pilot contamination attacks, wireless communications

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Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Niladri Roy, M. Longshithung Patton

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This paper is aimed at studying the structural response of circular hollow steel tubular (HST), concrete filled steel tubular (CFST), and reinforced cement concrete (RCC) stub columns when subjected to only axial compressive forces and also examining their comparative nature using finite element (FE) models. These results are further compared with the respective experimental results. FE software package ABAQUS 6.14 has been used for further parametric studies where a total of 108 FE models were modelled. The diameters of the HST, CFST, and RCC stub columns are kept as 100, 140, 180, and 220, with length to diameter ratio fixed at 3 to avoid end effects and flexural failure. To keep the same percentage of steel (by volume), the thicknesses of steel tubes in HST and CFST columns were varied in response to the change in diameter of the main reinforcement bar in RCC columns. M25 grade of concrete was used throughout. The objective is to compare the structural behaviour of HST, CFST, and RCC stub columns on the basis of their axial compressive load carrying capacity and failure modes. The studies show that filling the circular HST columns with concrete increases the Pu of the CCFST columns by 2.97 times. It was also observed that the Pu (HST) is about 0.72 times Pu (RCC) on average, and the Pu (CFST) is about 2.08 times Pu (RCC) on average. After the analysis and comparison, it has been proved that CFST has much more load carrying capacity than HST and RCC and also provides the same strength at a very less sectional size.

Keywords: HST columns, stub columns, CFST columns, RCC columns, finite element modeling, ABAQUS

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Authors: Naresh Reddy Kolanu

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The stability and collapse behavior of thin-walled composite structures, particularly carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) panels, are paramount concerns for structural designers. Accurate prediction of collapse loads necessitates precise modeling of damage evolution in the post-buckling regime. This study conducts a comparative assessment of various finite element (FE) methodologies employed in predicting post-buckling collapse in stiffened CFRP panels. A systematic approach is adopted, wherein FE models with various damage capabilities are constructed and analyzed. The study investigates the influence of interacting intra- and interlaminar damage modes on the post-buckling response and failure behavior of the stiffened CFRP structure. Additionally, the capabilities of shell and brick FE-based models are evaluated and compared to determine their effectiveness in capturing the complex collapse behavior. Conclusions are drawn through quantitative comparison with experimental results, focusing on post-buckling response and collapse load. This comprehensive evaluation provides insights into the most effective FE methodologies for accurately predicting the collapse behavior of stiffened CFRP panels, thereby aiding structural designers in enhancing the stability and safety of composite structures.

Keywords: CFRP stiffened panels, delamination, Hashin’s failure, post-buckling, progressive damage model

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Authors: H. H. Elewa, E. M. Ramadan, A. M. Nosair

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Rainfall water harvesting is considered as an important tool for overcoming water scarcity in arid and semi-arid region. Wadi Watir in the southeastern part of Sinai Peninsula is considered as one of the main and active basins in the Gulf of Aqaba drainage system. It is characterized by steep hills mainly consist of impermeable rocks, whereas the streambeds are covered by a highly permeable mixture of gravel and sand. A comprehensive approach involving the integration of geographic information systems, remote sensing and watershed modeling was followed to identify the RWH capability in this area. Eight thematic layers, viz volume of annual flood, overland flow distance, maximum flow distance, rock or soil infiltration, drainage frequency density, basin area, basin slope and basin length were used as a multi-parametric decision support system for conducting weighted spatial probability models (WSPMs) to determine the potential areas for the RWH. The WSPMs maps classified the area into five RWH potentiality classes ranging from the very low to very high. Three performed WSPMs' scenarios for W. Watir reflected identical results among their maps for the high and very high RWH potentiality classes, which are the most suitable ones for conducting surface water harvesting techniques. There is also a reasonable match with respect to the potentiality of runoff harvesting areas with a probability of moderate, low and very low among the three scenarios. WSPM results have shown that the high and very high classes, which are the most suitable for the RWH are representing approximately 40.23% of the total area of the basin. Accordingly, several locations were decided for the establishment of water harvesting dams and cisterns to improve the water conditions and living environment in the study area.

Keywords: Sinai, Wadi Watir, remote sensing, geographic information systems, watershed modeling, runoff water harvesting

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Authors: Jovina Concepcion Bachynski, Lenora Duhn, Idevania G. Costa, Pilar Camargo-Plazas

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Kidney failure is a life-limiting condition for which treatment, such as dialysis (hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis), can exact a tremendously high physical and psychosocial symptom burden. Kidney failure can be severe enough to require a palliative approach to care. The term supportive care can be used in lieu of palliative care to avoid the misunderstanding that palliative care is synonymous with end-of-life or hospice care. Kidney supportive care, encompassing advance care planning, is an approach to care that improves the quality of life for people receiving dialysis through early identification and treatment of symptoms throughout the disease trajectory. Advanced care planning involves ongoing conversations about the values, goals, and preferences for future care between individuals and their healthcare teams. Kidney supportive care is underutilized and often initiated late in this population. There is evidence to indicate nurses are not providing the necessary elements of supportive kidney care. Dialysis nurses’ delay or lack of engagement in supportive care until close to the end of life may result in people dying without receiving optimal palliative care services. Using Charmaz’s constructivist grounded theory, the purpose of this doctoral study is to develop a substantive theory that explains the process of engagement in supportive care by nurses working in dialysis settings in Canada. Through initial purposeful and subsequent theoretical sampling, 23 nurses with current or recent work experience in outpatient hemodialysis, home hemodialysis, and peritoneal dialysis settings drawn from across Canada were recruited to participate in two intensive interviews using the Zoom© teleconferencing platform. Concurrent data collection and data analysis, constant comparative analysis of initial and focused codes until the attainment of theoretical saturation, and memo-writing, as well as researcher reflexivity, have been undertaken to aid the emergence of concepts, categories, and, ultimately, the constructed theory. At the time of abstract submission, data analysis is currently at the second level of coding (i.e., focused coding stage) of the research study. Preliminary categories include: (a) focusing on biomedical care; (b) multi-dimensional challenges to having the conversation; (c) connecting and setting boundaries with patients; (d) difficulty articulating kidney-supportive care; and (e) unwittingly practising kidney-supportive care. For the conference, the resulting theory will be presented. Nurses working in dialysis are well-positioned to ensure the delivery of quality kidney-supportive care. This study will help to determine the process and the factors enabling and impeding nurse engagement in supportive care in dialysis to effect change for normalizing advance care planning conversations in the clinical setting. This improved practice will have substantive beneficial implications for the many individuals living with kidney failure and their supporting loved ones.

Keywords: dialysis, kidney failure, nursing, supportive care

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Authors: Samantha A. Cintron, Janet Pierce, Mihaela E. Sardiu, Diane Mahoney, Jill Peltzer, Bhanu Gupta, Qiuhua Shen

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High output heart failure (HOHF) is characterized a high output state resulting from an underlying disease process and is commonly caused by obesity. As obesity levels increase, more individuals will be at risk for obesity-related HOHF. However, the underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms of obesity-related HOHF are not well understood and need further research. The aim of the study was to describe the differences in leukocyte transcriptomes of morbidly obese patients with HOHF and those with non-HOHF. In this cross-sectional study, the study team collected blood samples, demographics, and clinical data of six patients with morbid obesity and HOHF and six patients with morbid obesity and non-HOHF. The study team isolated the peripheral blood leukocyte RNA and applied stranded total RNA sequencing. Differential gene expression was calculated, and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis software was used to interpret the canonical pathways, functional changes, upstream regulators, and mechanistic and causal networks that were associated with the significantly different leukocyte transcriptomes. The study team identified 116 differentially expressed genes; 114 were upregulated, and 2 were downregulated in the HOHF group (Benjamini-Hochberg adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05 and log2(fold-change) of ±1). The differentially expressed genes were involved with cell proliferation, mitochondrial function, erythropoiesis, erythrocyte stability, and apoptosis. The top upregulated canonical pathways associated with differentially expressed genes were autophagy, adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase signaling, and senescence pathways. Upstream regulator GATA Binding Protein 1 (GATA1) and a network associated with nuclear factor kappa-light chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-kB) were also identified based on the different leukocyte transcriptomes of morbidly obese patients with HOHF and non-HOHF. To the author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that reported the differential gene expression in patients with obesity-related HOHF and demonstrated the unique pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying the disease. Further research is needed to determine the role of cellular function and maintenance, inflammation, and iron homeostasis in obesity-related HOHF.

Keywords: cardiac output, heart failure, obesity, transcriptomics

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Authors: Raed Hameed Allawi

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Wellbore instability problems are considered the majority challenge for several wells in the Ratawi shale formation. However, it results in non-productive (NPT) time and increased well-drilling expenditures. This work aims to construct an integrated mechanical earth model (MEM) to predict the wellbore failure and design optimum mud weight to improve the drilling efficiency of future wells. The MEM was based on field data, including open-hole wireline logging and measurement data. Several failure criteria were applied in this work, including Modified Lade, Mogi-Coulomb, and Mohr-Coulomb that utilized to calculate the proper mud weight and practical drilling paths and orientations. Results showed that the leading cause of wellbore instability problems was inadequate mud weight. Moreover, some improper drilling practices and heterogeneity of Ratawi formation were additional causes of the increased risk of wellbore instability. Therefore, the suitable mud weight for safe drilling in the Ratawi shale formation should be 11.5-13.5 ppg. Furthermore, the mud weight should be increased as required depending on the trajectory of the planned well. The outcome of this study is as practical tools to reduce non-productive time and well costs and design future neighboring deviated wells to get high drilling efficiency. In addition, the current results serve as a reference for similar fields in that region because of the lacking of published studies regarding wellbore instability problems of the Ratawi Formation in southern Iraqi oilfields.

Keywords: wellbore stability, hole collapse, horizontal stress, MEM, mud window

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Authors: Wenhao Li, Shijun Guo

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Carbon fibre reinforced composites are progressively replacing metal structures in modern civil aircraft. This is because composite materials have large potential of weight saving compared with metal. However, the achievement to date of weight saving in composite structure is far less than the theoretical potential due to many uncertainties in structural integrity and safety concern. Unlike the conventional metallic structure, composite components are bonded together along the joints where structural integrity is a major concern. To ensure the safety, metal fasteners are used to reinforce the composite bonded joints. One of the solutions for a significant weight saving of composite structure is to develop an effective technology of on-board Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) System. By monitoring the real-life stress status of composite structures during service, the safety margin set in the structure design can be reduced with confidence. It provides a means of safeguard to minimize the need for programmed inspections and allow for maintenance to be need-driven, rather than usage-driven. The aim of this paper is to develop smart composite joint. The key technology is a multifunctional thermoplastic composite fastener (MTCF). The MTCF will replace some of the existing metallic fasteners in the most concerned locations distributed over the aircraft composite structures to reinforce the joints and form an on-board SHM network system. Each of the MTCFs will work as a unit of the AU and AE technology. The proposed MTCF technology has been patented and developed by Prof. Guo in Cranfield University, UK in the past a few years. The manufactured MTCF has been successfully employed in the composite SLJ (Single-Lap Joint). In terms of the structure integrity, the hybrid SLJ reinforced by MTCF achieves 19.1% improvement in the ultimate failure strength in comparison to the bonded SLJ. By increasing the diameter or rearranging the lay-up sequence of MTCF, the hybrid SLJ reinforced by MTCF is able to achieve the equivalent ultimate strength as that reinforced by titanium fastener. The predicted ultimate strength in simulation is in good agreement with the test results. In terms of the structural health monitoring, a signal from the MTCF was measured well before the load of mechanical failure. This signal provides a warning of initial crack in the joint which could not be detected by the strain gauge until the final failure.

Keywords: composite single-lap joint, crack propagation, multifunctional composite fastener, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Sonia Butalia, Huong Luu, Alexis Guigue, Karen J. B. Martins, Khanh Vu, Scott W. Klarenbach

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Obesity-related health conditions impose a substantial economic burden on payers due to increased healthcare use. Estimates of healthcare resource use and costs associated with obesity-related comorbidities are needed to inform policies and interventions targeting these conditions. Methods: Adults living with obesity were identified (a procedure-related body mass index code for class 2/3 obesity between 2012 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada; excluding those with bariatric surgery), and outcomes were compared over 1-year (2019/2020) between those who had and did not have specific obesity-related comorbidities. The probability of using a healthcare service (based on the odds ratio of a zero [OR-zero] cost) was compared; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Logistic regression and a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution were used for total healthcare cost comparisons ($CDN); cost ratios and estimated cost differences (95% CI) were reported. Potential socio-demographic and clinical confounders were adjusted for, and incremental cost differences were representative of a referent case. Results: A total of 220,190 adults living with obesity were included; 44% had hypertension, 25% had osteoarthritis, 24% had type-2 diabetes, 17% had cardiovascular disease, 12% had insulin resistance, 9% had chronic back pain, and 4% of females had polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). The probability of hospitalization, ED visit, and ambulatory care was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (hospitalization: 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.57 [0.55/0.59]] / ED visit: 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.53/0.56]] / ambulatory care visit: 2.4-times [OR-zero: 0.41 [0.40/0.43]]), cardiovascular disease (2.7-times [OR-zero: 0.37 [0.36/0.38]] / 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.52 [0.51/0.53]] / 2.8-times [OR-zero: 0.36 [0.35/0.36]]), osteoarthritis (2.0-times [OR-zero: 0.51 [0.50/0.53]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.74 [0.73/0.76]] / 2.5-times [OR-zero: 0.40 [0.40/0.41]]), type-2 diabetes (1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.52/0.55]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.72 [0.70/0.73]] / 2.1-times [OR-zero: 0.47 [0.46/0.47]]), hypertension (1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]] / 1.3-times [OR-zero: 0.79 [0.77/0.80]] / 2.2-times [OR-zero: 0.46 [0.45/0.47]]), PCOS (not significant / 1.2-times [OR-zero: 0.83 [0.79/0.88]] / not significant), and insulin resistance (1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.88 [0.84/0.91]] / 1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.92 [0.89/0.94]] / 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]]). After fully adjusting for potential confounders, the total healthcare cost ratio was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (1.54-times [1.51/1.56]), cardiovascular disease (1.45-times [1.43/1.47]), osteoarthritis (1.36-times [1.35/1.38]), type-2 diabetes (1.30-times [1.28/1.31]), hypertension (1.27-times [1.26/1.28]), PCOS (1.08-times [1.05/1.11]), and insulin resistance (1.03-times [1.01/1.04]). Conclusions: Adults with obesity who have specific disease-related health conditions have a higher probability of healthcare use and incur greater costs than those without specific comorbidities; incremental costs are larger when other obesity-related health conditions are not adjusted for. In a specific referent case, hypertension was costliest (44% had this condition with an additional annual cost of $715 [$678/$753]). If these findings hold for the Canadian population, hypertension in persons with obesity represents an estimated additional annual healthcare cost of $2.5 billion among adults living with obesity (based on an adult obesity rate of 26%). Results of this study can inform decision making on investment in interventions that are effective in treating obesity and its complications.

Keywords: administrative data, healthcare cost, obesity-related comorbidities, real world evidence

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Authors: Maulana Ayoub Ali

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“Both Socialist as well as the capitalist in the economic systems have proven their failure to ensure economic justice that serves to benefit all in the society, both the rich and the poor. In particular, capitalism is currently causing a terrifying scenario by making the rich richer and the poor poorer” . In this paper, the author looks at the level of exploitation which is taking place to small and middle entrepreneurs (SME’s), government and private employees as well as large investors in East African countries who depends on interest-based loans which undermines their lives every day due to heavy monthly returns. Numbers of families have been evicted from their family premises and SME’s properties have been attached in the courts due to failure to return their loans timely. In fact, there are a lot of issues which have taken place on the ground which badly affected number of families socially and most importantly economically due to engagement in interest-based loans offered by commercial banks in East Africa. This paper looks on the alternative ways of eliminating interest-based loans to better lives of devastated Africans who are almost “dying” of heavy debts generated through higher interest loans. Reaching to that particular root the author has visited various literatures in a bid to deeply investigate and find out the best alternative mode of enabling African SME’s, businessmen and employees to benefit from the interest-free loans. The question is whether interest-free loans can be a long term solution towards poverty alleviation in East Africa generally and Tanzania in particular.

Keywords: interest-free loans, SME’s, financial institutions, poverty, east Africa

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Authors: Amal Jmaii, Damien Rousseliere, Besma Belhadj

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We explore the relationship between internal migration and poverty in Tunisia. We present a methodology combining potential outcomes approach with multiple imputation to highlight the effect of internal migration on poverty states. We find that probability of being poor decreases when leaving the poorest regions (the west areas) to the richer regions (greater Tunis and the east regions).

Keywords: internal migration, potential outcomes approach, poverty dynamics, Tunisia

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Authors: Monireh Ahmadi Bani, Adel Khorramrouz, Lalenoor Morvarid, Bagheri Mahtab

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Background:- Foot disorders are common in musculoskeletal problems. Plantar pressure distribution measurement is one the most important part of foot disorders diagnosis for quantitative analysis. However, the association of plantar pressure and foot disorders is not clear. With the growth of dataset and machine learning methods, the relationship between foot disorders and plantar pressures can be detected. Significance of the study:- The purpose of this study was to predict the probability of common foot disorders based on peak plantar pressure distribution and center of pressure during walking. Methodologies:- 2323 participants were assessed in a foot therapy clinic between 2015 and 2021. Foot disorders were diagnosed by an experienced physician and then they were asked to walk on a force plate scanner. After the data preprocessing, due to the difference in walking time and foot size, we normalized the samples based on time and foot size. Some of force plate variables were selected as input to a deep neural network (DNN), and the probability of any each foot disorder was measured. In next step, we used support vector machine (SVM) and run dataset for each foot disorder (classification of yes or no). We compared DNN and SVM for foot disorders prediction based on plantar pressure distributions and center of pressure. Findings:- The results demonstrated that the accuracy of deep learning architecture is sufficient for most clinical and research applications in the study population. In addition, the SVM approach has more accuracy for predictions, enabling applications for foot disorders diagnosis. The detection accuracy was 71% by the deep learning algorithm and 78% by the SVM algorithm. Moreover, when we worked with peak plantar pressure distribution, it was more accurate than center of pressure dataset. Conclusion:- Both algorithms- deep learning and SVM will help therapist and patients to improve the data pool and enhance foot disorders prediction with less expense and error after removing some restrictions properly.

Keywords: deep neural network, foot disorder, plantar pressure, support vector machine

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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Authors: Maysoon Khalil Askar

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The delineation of possible areas of corrosion along the external face of an underground oil pipeline in Trunk line of Al- Garraf oil field was investigated using the horizontal electrical resistivity profiling technique and study the contribution of pH, Moisture Content in Soil and Presence chlorides, sulfates and total dissolve salts in soil and water. The test sites represent a physical and chemical properties of soils. The hydrogen-ion concentration of soil and groundwater range from 7.2 to 9.6, and the resistivity values of the soil along the pipeline were obtained using the YH302B model resistivity meter having values between 1588 and 720 Ohm-cm. the chloride concentration in soil and groundwater is high (more than 1000 ppm), total soulable salt is more than 5000 ppm, and sulphate range from 0.17% and 0.98% in soil and more than 600 ppm in groundwater. The soil is poor aeration, the soil texture is fine (clay and silt soil), the water content is high (the groundwater is close to surface), the chloride and sulphate is high in the soil and groundwater, the total soulable salt is high in ground water and finally the soil electric resistivity is low that the soil is very corrosive and there is the possibility of the pipeline failure. These methods applied in the study are quick, economic and efficient for detecting along buried pipelines which need to be protected. Routine electrical geophysical investigations along buried oil pipelines should be undertaken for the early detection and prevention of pipeline failure with its attendant environmental, human and economic consequences.

Keywords: soil resistivity, corrosion, cathodic protection, chloride concentration, water content

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Authors: R. Kiruthika, A. Kannan

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Steganography is the problem of hiding secret messages in 'innocent – looking' public communication so that the presence of the secret message cannot be detected. This paper introduces a steganographic security in terms of computational in-distinguishability from a channel of probability distributions on cover messages. This method first splits the cover image into two separate blocks using Douglas – Peucker algorithm. The text message and the image will be hided in the Least Significant Bit (LSB) of the cover image.

Keywords: steganography, lsb, embedding, Douglas-Peucker algorithm

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Authors: Feng Ji Mervin Goh, Edmund Chee Jian Pua, Stuart Alexander Cook

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Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a common cause of heart failure. Genetic mutations account for 50% of DCM cases with TTN mutations being the most common, accounting for up to 25% of DCM cases. However, the genetic architecture underlying Asian DCM patients is unknown. We evaluated 68 patients (female= 17) with DCM who underwent follow-up at the National Heart Centre, Singapore from 2013 through 2014. Clinical data were obtained and analyzed retrospectively. Genomic DNA was subjected to next-generation targeted sequencing. Nextera Rapid Capture Enrichment was used to capture the exons of a panel of 169 cardiac genes. DNA libraries were sequenced as paired-end 150-bp reads on Illumina MiSeq. Raw sequence reads were processed and analysed using standard bioinformatics techniques. The average age of onset of DCM was 46.1±10.21 years old. The average left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular diastolic internal diameter (LVIDd), left ventricular systolic internal diameter (LVIDs) were 26.1±11.2%, 6.20±0.83cm, and 5.23±0.92cm respectively. The frequencies of mutations in major DCM-associated genes were as follows TTN (5.88% vs published frequency of 20%), LMNA (4.41% vs 6%), MYH7 (5.88% vs 4%), MYH6 (5.88% vs 4%), and SCN5a (4.41% vs 3%). The average callability at 10 times coverage of each major gene were: TTN (99.7%), LMNA (87.1%), MYH7 (94.8%), MYH6 (95.5%), and SCN5a (94.3%). In conclusion, TTN mutations are not common in Singaporean DCM patients. The frequencies of other major DCM-associated genes are comparable to frequencies published in the current literature.

Keywords: heart failure, dilated cardiomyopathy, genetics, next-generation sequencing

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Authors: Davod Ahmadi, Narges Ebadi, Ethan Wang, Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez

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Compared to the other Least Developed Countries (LDCs), major countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have limited access to the clean water. People in this region, and more specifically females, suffer from acute water scarcity problems. They are compelled to spend too much of their time bringing water for domestic use like drinking and washing. Apart from domestic use, water through affecting agriculture and livestock contributes to the food security status of people in vulnerable regions like SSA. Livestock needs water to grow, and agriculture requires enormous quantities of water for irrigation. The main objective of this study is to explore the association between access to water and individuals’ food security status. Data from 2017 Gallup World Poll (GWP) for SSA were analyzed (n=35,000). The target population in GWP is the entire civilian, non-institutionalized, aged 15 and older population. All samples selection is probability based and nationally representative. The Gallup surveys an average of 1,000 samples of individuals per country. Three questions related to water (i.e., water quality, availability of water for crops and availability of water for livestock) were used as the exposure variables. Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) was used as the outcome variable. FIES measures individuals’ food security status, and it is composed of eight questions with simple dichotomous responses (1=Yes and 0=No). Different statistical analyses such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression, form the basis of this study. Results from descriptive analyses showed that more than 50% of the respondents had no access to enough water for crops and livestock. More than 85% of respondents were categorized as “food insecure”. Findings from cross-tabulation analyses showed that food security status was significantly associated with water quality (0.135; P=0.000), water for crops (0.106; P=0.000) and water for livestock (0.112; P=0.000). In regression analyses, the probability of being food insecure increased among people who expressed no satisfaction with water quality (OR=1.884 (OR=1.768-2.008)), not enough water for crops (OR=1.721 (1.616-1.834)) and not enough water for livestock (OR=1.706 (1.819)). In conclusion, it should note that water access affects food security status in SSA.

Keywords: water access, agriculture, livestock, FIES

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Authors: Aqeela Mir, Akhtar Nawaz Malik, Javaid Iqbal

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The paper presents a survey based approach in order to observe the level of awareness regarding Mechatronics in society of Pakistan and the factors affecting the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan. With the help of these surveys a new direction for making a Mathematical model for the future development trend of Mechatronics in Pakistan is also suggested.

Keywords: mechatronics society survey, future development trend of mechatronics in pakistan, probability estimation, mathematical model

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Authors: Ali A. Al-Jazaairry, Tahsin T. Sabbagh

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One of the important concerns within the field of geotechnical engineering is the presence of cavities in soils. This present work is an attempt to understand the behaviour of strip footing subjected to inclined load and constructed on cavitied soil. The failure mechanism of strip footing located above such soils was studied analytically. The capability of analytical model to correctly expect the system behaviour is assessed by carrying out verification analysis on available studies. The study was prepared by finite element software (PLAXIS) in which an elastic-perfectly plastic soil model was used. It was indicated, from the results of the study, that the load carrying capacity of foundation constructed on cavity can be analysed well using such analysis. The research covered many foundation cases, and in each foundation case, there occurs a critical depth under which the presence of cavities has shown minimum impact on the foundation performance. When cavities are found above this critical depth, the load carrying capacity of the foundation differs with many influences, such as the location and size of the cavity and footing depth. Figures involving the load carrying capacity with the affecting factors studied are presented. These figures offer information beneficial for the design of strip footings rested on underground cavities. Moreover, the results might be used to design a shallow foundation constructed on cavitied soil, whereas the obtained failure mechanisms may be employed to improve numerical solutions for this kind of problems.

Keywords: axial load, cavity, inclined load, strip footing

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Authors: T. A. Sakr, Hanaa E. Abd-El-Mottaleb

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Outrigger-braced wall systems are commonly used to provide high rise buildings with the required lateral stiffness for wind and earthquake resistance. The existence of outriggers adds to the stiffness and strength of walls as reported by several studies. The effects of different parameters on the elasto-plastic dynamic behavior of outrigger-braced wall systems to earthquakes are investigated in this study. Parameters investigated include outrigger stiffness, concrete strength, and reinforcement arrangement as the main design parameters in wall design. In addition to being significant to the wall behavior, such parameters may lead to the change of failure mode and the delay of crack propagation and consequently failure as the wall is excited by earthquakes. Bi-linear stress-strain relation for concrete with limited tensile strength and truss members with bi-linear stress-strain relation for reinforcement were used in the finite element analysis of the problem. The famous earthquake record, El-Centro, 1940 is used in the study. Emphasis was given to the lateral drift, normal stresses and crack pattern as behavior controlling determinants. Results indicated significant effect of the studied parameters such that stiffer outrigger, higher grade concrete and concentrating the reinforcement at wall edges enhance the behavior of the system. Concrete stresses and cracking behavior are sigbificantly enhanced while lesser drift improvements are observed.

Keywords: outrigger, shear wall, earthquake, nonlinear

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Authors: Ali Kassem, Sharf Eldeen-Shazly, Alshemaa Lotfy

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Introduction: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) has been the third leading cause of hospital-acquired renal failure. Patients with cardiac diseases are particularly at risk especially with repeated injections of contrast media. CIN is generally defined as an increase in serum creatinine concentration of > 0.5 mg/dL or 25% above baseline within 48 hours after contrast administration. Aim of work: To examine the frequency of CIN for patients undergoing cardiac catheterization at Sohag University Hospital (Upper Egypt) and to identify possible risk factors for CIN in these patients. Material and methods: The study included 104 patients with mean age 56.11 ±10.03, 64(61.5%) are males while 40(38.5%) are females. 44(42.3%) patients are diabetics, 43(41%) patients are hypertensive, 6(5.7%) patients have congestive heart failure, 69(66.3%) patients on statins, 74 (71.2 %) are on ACEIs or ARBs, 19(15.4%) are on metformin, 6 (5.8%) are on NSAIDs, 30(28.8%) are on diuretics. RESULTS: Patients were classified at the end of the study into two groups: Group A: Included 91 patients who did not develop CIN. Group B: Included 13 patients who developed CIN, of which serum creatinine raised > 0.5mg/dl in 6 patients and raised > 25% from the baseline after the procedure in 13 patients. The overall incidence of CIN was 12.5%. CIN increased with older age. There was an increase in the incidence of CIN in diabetic versus non-diabetic patients (20.5% and 6.7%) respectively. (p< 0.03). There was a highly significant increase in the incidence of CIN in patients with CHF versus those without CHF (100% and 71%) respectively, (P<0001). Patients on diuretics showed a significant increase in the incidence of CIN representing 61.5% of all patients who developed CIN. Conclusion: Older patients, diabetic patients, patients with CHF and patients on diuretics have higher risk of developing CIN during coronary catheterization and should receive reno-protective measures before contrast exposure.

Keywords: cardiac diseases, contrast-induced nephropathy, coronary catheterization, CIN

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Authors: Sfiso Radebe

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The design models dealing with flawless composite structures are in abundance, where the mechanical properties of composite structures are assumed to be known a priori. However, if the worst case scenario is assumed, where material defects combined with processing anomalies in composite structures are expected, a different solution is attained. Furthermore, if the system being designed combines in series hybrid elements, individually affected by material constant variations, it implies that a different approach needs to be taken. In the body of literature, there is a compendium of research that investigates different modes of failure affecting hybrid metal-composite structures. It covers areas pertaining to the failure of the hybrid joints, structural deformation, transverse displacement, the suppression of vibration and noise. In the present study a system employing a combination of two or more hybrid power transmitting elements will be explored for the least favourable dynamic loads as well as weight minimization, subject to uncertain material properties. Elastic constants are assumed to be uncertain-but-bounded quantities varying slightly around their nominal values where the solution is determined using convex models of uncertainty. Convex analysis of the problem leads to the computation of the least favourable solution and ultimately to a robust design. This approach contrasts with a deterministic analysis where the average values of elastic constants are employed in the calculations, neglecting the variations in the material properties.

Keywords: convex modelling, hybrid, metal-composite, robust design

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Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

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Authors: Iván Rivet, Narges Dialami, Miguel Cervera, Michele Chiumenti

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Process parameters in Additive Manufacturing (AM) play a critical role in the mechanical performance of the final component. In order to find the input configuration that guarantees the optimal performance of the printed part, the process-performance relationship must be found. Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) is the selected demonstrative AM technology due to its great popularity in the industrial manufacturing world. A material model that considers the different printing patterns present in a FFF part is used. A voxelized mesh is built from the manufacturing toolpaths described in the G-Code file. An Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) based on the octree strategy is used in order to reduce the complexity of the mesh while maintaining its accuracy. High-fidelity and cost-efficient Finite Element (FE) simulations are performed and the influence of key process parameters in the mechanical performance of the component is analyzed. A robust optimization process based on appropriate failure criteria is developed to find the printing direction that leads to the optimal mechanical performance of the component. The Tsai-Wu failure criterion is implemented due to the orthotropy and heterogeneity constitutive nature of FFF components and because of the differences between the strengths in tension and compression. The optimization loop implements a modified version of an Anomaly Detection (AD) algorithm and uses the computed metrics to obtain the optimal printing direction. The developed methodology is verified with a case study on an industrial demonstrator.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, optimization, printing direction, mechanical performance, voxelization

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Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

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In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

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Authors: Ram Sharan Mehta, Sanjeev Sharma

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Introduction: Haemodialysis (HD) is a mechanical process of removing waste products from the blood and replacing essential substances in patients with renal failure. First artificial kidney developed in Netherlands in 1943 AD First successful treatment of CRF reported in 1960AD, life-saving treatment begins for CRF in 1972 AD. In 1973 AD Medicare took over financial responsibility for many clients and after that method become popular. BP Koirala institute of health science is the only center outside the Kathmandu, where HD service is available. In BPKIHS PD started in Jan.1998, HD started in August 2002 till September 2003 about 278 patients received HD. Day by day the number of HD patients is increasing in BPKIHS as with institutional growth. No such type of study was conducted in past hence there is lack of valid & reliable baseline data. Hence, the investigators were interested to conduct the study on " Profile of the Renal Failure patients under Haemodialysis at B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences Nepal". Objectives: The objectives of the study were: to find out the Socio-demographic characteristics of the patients, to explore the knowledge of the patients regarding disease process and Haemodialysis and to identify the problems encountered by the patients. Methods: It is a hospital-based exploratory study. The population of the study was the clients under HD and the sampling method was purposive. Fifty-four patients undergone HD during the period of 17 July 2012 to 16 July 2013 of complete one year were included in the study. Structured interview schedule was used for collect data after obtaining validity and reliability. Results: Total 54 subjects had undergone for HD, having age range of 5-75 years and majority of them were male (74%) and Hindu (93 %). Thirty-one percent illiterate, 28% had agriculture their occupation, 80% of them were from very poor community, and about 30% subjects were unaware about the disease they suffering. Majority of subjects reported that they had no complications during dialysis (61%), where as 20% reported nausea and vomiting, 9% Hypotension, 4% headache and 2%chest pain during dialysis. Conclusions: CRF leading to HD is a long battle for patients, required to make major and continuous adjustment, both physiologically and psychologically. The study suggests that non-compliance with HD regimen were common. The socio-demographic and knowledge profile will help in the management and early prevention of disease and evaluate aspects that will influence care and patients can select mode of treatment themselves properly.

Keywords: profile, haemodialysis, Nepal, patients, treatment

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Authors: Wei-Ju Huang, Hung-Pin Hsu

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[Background] In congestive heart failure (CHF), it has always been the principle of clinical treatment to control the water retention mechanism in the body to prevent excessive fluid retention. Early control of sympathetic nerves, Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone system (RAA system, RAAS), or strengthening of Atrial Natriuretic Peptide (ANP) was the point. In RAA system, related hormones, such as angiotensin, or enzymes in the pathway, such as ACE-I, can be used with corresponding inhibitors to reduce water content.[Aim] In recent years, clinical studies have pointed out that if different mechanisms are combined, the control effect seems to be better. For example, recent studies showed that ENTRESTO, a combination of Sacubitril and Valsartan, is a good new drug for CHF. Sacubitril is a prodrug. After activation, it can inhibit neprilysin and act as a neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) to reduce the breakdown of natriuretic peptides(ANP). Valsartan is a kind of angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), both of which are used to treat heart failure at the same time, have excellent curative effects.[Materials and Methods] Considering the side effects of this drug, coughing and a few cases of diarrhea were observed. However, the effect of this drug on the patient's intestinal tract has not been confirmed. On the other hand, studies have pointed out that ANP supplement can improve the CHF and increase the inhibitory effect on cancer cells. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to use a special microbial detection method to prove that whether oral drugs have an effect on microorganisms.The experimental method uses Nissui Compact Dry to observe the situation in different types of microorganisms. After the drug is dissolved in water, it is implanted in a petri dish, and the presence of different microorganisms is detected through different antibody reactions to confirm whether the drug has some toxicology in the gut.[Results and Discussion]From the above experimental results, it can be known that among the effects of Sacubitril and Valsartan on the basic microbial flora of the human body, low doses had no significant effect on Escherichia coli or intestinal bacteria. If Sacubitril or Valsartan with a high concentration of 3mg/ml is used alone or under the stimulation of a high concentration of the two drugs, it has a significant inhibitory effect on Escherichia coli. However, in terms of the effect on intestinal bacteria, high concentration of Sacubitril has a more significant inhibitory effect on intestinal bacteria, while high concentration of Valsartan has a less significant inhibitory effect on intestinal bacteria. The inhibitory effect of the combination of the two drugs on intestinal bacteria is also less significant.[Conclusion]The results of this study can be used as a further reference for the possible side effects of the clinical use of Sacubitril and Valsartan on the intestinal tract of patients,

Keywords: sacubitril, valsartan, entresto, congestive heart failure (CHF)

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Authors: Kamaljit Pati, Manas Kumar Mohanty, Sanjib Sadhu

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A heuristic has been designed to generate a random simple monotone polygon from a given set of ‘n’ points lying on a 2-Dimensional plane. Our heuristic generates a random monotone polygon in O(n) time after O(nℓogn) preprocessing time which is improved over the previous work where a random monotone polygon is produced in the same O(n) time but the preprocessing time is O(k) for n < k < n2. However, our heuristic does not generate all possible random polygons with uniform probability. The space complexity of our proposed heuristic is O(n).

Keywords: sorting, monotone polygon, visibility, chain

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