Search results for: phytochemical absorption prediction model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19394

Search results for: phytochemical absorption prediction model

18524 Flow Characteristics around Rectangular Obstacles with the Varying Direction of Obstacles

Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40d×80w×80h, 80d×80w×80h, 160d×80w×80h, 80d×40w×80h and 80d×160w×80h in mm3) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80d×80w×80h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD

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18523 Development of Polymer Nano-Particles as in vivo Imaging Agents for Photo-Acoustic Imaging

Authors: Hiroyuki Aoki

Abstract:

Molecular imaging has attracted much attention to visualize a tumor site in a living body on the basis of biological functions. A fluorescence in vivo imaging technique has been widely employed as a useful modality for small animals in pre-clinical researches. However, it is difficult to observe a site deep inside a body because of a short penetration depth of light. A photo-acoustic effect is a generation of a sound wave following light absorption. Because the sound wave is less susceptible to the absorption of tissues, an in vivo imaging method based on the photoacoustic effect can observe deep inside a living body. The current study developed an in vivo imaging agent for a photoacoustic imaging method. Nano-particles of poly(lactic acid) including indocyanine dye were developed as bio-compatible imaging agent with strong light absorption. A tumor site inside a mouse body was successfully observed in a photo-acoustic image. A photo-acoustic imaging with polymer nano-particle agent would be a powerful method to visualize a tumor.

Keywords: nano-particle, photo-acoustic effect, polymer, dye, in vivo imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
18522 Design of Hybrid Auxetic Metamaterials for Enhanced Energy Absorption under Compression

Authors: Ercan Karadogan, Fatih Usta

Abstract:

Auxetic materials have a negative Poisson’s ratio (NPR), which is not often found in nature. They are metamaterials that have potential applications in many engineering fields. Mechanical metamaterials are synthetically designed structures with unusual mechanical properties. These mechanical properties are dependent on the properties of the matrix structure. They have the following special characteristics, i.e., improved shear modulus, increased energy absorption, and intensive fracture toughness. Non-auxetic materials compress transversely when they are stretched. The system naturally is inclined to keep its density constant. The transversal compression increases the density to balance the loss in the longitudinal direction. This study proposes to improve the crushing performance of hybrid auxetic materials. The re-entrant honeycomb structure has been combined with a star honeycomb, an S-shaped unit cell, a double arrowhead, and a structurally hexagonal re-entrant honeycomb by 9 X 9 cells, i.e., the number of cells is 9 in the lateral direction and 9 in the vertical direction. The Finite Element (FE) and experimental methods have been used to determine the compression behavior of the developed hybrid auxetic structures. The FE models have been developed by using Abaqus software. The specimens made of polymer plastic materials have been 3D printed and subjected to compression loading. The results are compared in terms of specific energy absorption and strength. This paper describes the quasi-static crushing behavior of two types of hybrid lattice structures (auxetic + auxetic and auxetic + non-auxetic). The results show that the developed hybrid structures can be useful to control collapse mechanisms and present larger energy absorption compared to conventional re-entrant auxetic structures.

Keywords: auxetic materials, compressive behavior, metamaterials, negative Poisson’s ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
18521 Automating and Optimization Monitoring Prognostics for Rolling Bearing

Authors: H. Hotait, X. Chiementin, L. Rasolofondraibe

Abstract:

This paper presents a continuous work to detect the abnormal state in the rolling bearing by studying the vibration signature analysis and calculation of the remaining useful life. To achieve these aims, two methods; the first method is the classification to detect the degradation state by the AOM-OPTICS (Acousto-Optic Modulator) method. The second one is the prediction of the degradation state using least-squares support vector regression and then compared with the linear degradation model. An experimental investigation on ball-bearing was conducted to see the effectiveness of the used method by applying the acquired vibration signals. The proposed model for predicting the state of bearing gives us accurate results with the experimental and numerical data.

Keywords: bearings, automatization, optimization, prognosis, classification, defect detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
18520 A Model for Diagnosis and Prediction of Coronavirus Using Neural Network

Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

Abstract:

Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
18519 Expectation-Confirmation Model of Information System Continuance: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

Abstract:

The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, Expectation-confirmation model, Meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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18518 Interest Rate Prediction with Taylor Rule

Authors: T. Bouchabchoub, A. Bendahmane, A. Haouriqui, N. Attou

Abstract:

This paper presents simulation results of Forex predicting model equations in order to give approximately a prevision of interest rates. First, Hall-Taylor (HT) equations have been used with Taylor rule (TR) to adapt them to European and American Forex Markets. Indeed, initial Taylor Rule equation is conceived for all Forex transactions in every States: It includes only one equation and six parameters. Here, the model has been used with Hall-Taylor equations, initially including twelve equations which have been reduced to only three equations. Analysis has been developed on the following base macroeconomic variables: Real change rate, investment wages, anticipated inflation, realized inflation, real production, interest rates, gap production and potential production. This model has been used to specifically study the impact of an inflation shock on macroeconomic director interest rates.

Keywords: interest rate, Forex, Taylor rule, production, European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve System (FED).

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18517 Comparison of Different Machine Learning Algorithms for Solubility Prediction

Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

Abstract:

Molecular solubility prediction plays a crucial role in various fields, such as drug discovery, environmental science, and material science. In this study, we compare the performance of five machine learning algorithms—linear regression, support vector machines (SVM), random forests, gradient boosting machines (GBM), and neural networks—for predicting molecular solubility using the AqSolDB dataset. The dataset consists of 9981 data points with their corresponding solubility values. MACCS keys (166 bits), RDKit properties (20 properties), and structural properties(3) features are extracted for every smile representation in the dataset. A total of 189 features were used for training and testing for every molecule. Each algorithm is trained on a subset of the dataset and evaluated using metrics accuracy scores. Additionally, computational time for training and testing is recorded to assess the efficiency of each algorithm. Our results demonstrate that random forest model outperformed other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving an 0.93 accuracy score. Gradient boosting machines and neural networks also exhibit strong performance, closely followed by support vector machines. Linear regression, while simpler in nature, demonstrates competitive performance but with slightly higher errors compared to ensemble methods. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the performance of machine learning algorithms for molecular solubility prediction, highlighting the importance of algorithm selection in achieving accurate and efficient predictions in practical applications.

Keywords: random forest, machine learning, comparison, feature extraction

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18516 Enhancement of CO2 Capturing Performance of N-Methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) Using with New Class Functionalized Ionic Liquids: Kinetics and Interaction Mechanism Analysis

Authors: Surya Chandra Tiwari, Kamal Kishore Pant, Sreedevi Upadhyayula

Abstract:

CO2 capture using benign cost-effective solvents is an essential unit operation not only in the process industry for CO2 separation and recovery from industrial off-gas streams but also for direct capture from air to clean the environment. Several solvents are identified, by researchers, with high CO2 capture efficiency due to their favorable chemical and physical properties, interaction mechanism with CO2, and low regeneration energy cost. However, N-Methyldiethanolamine (MDEA) is the most frequently used solvent for CO2 capture with promoters such as piperazine (Pz) and monoethanolamine (MEA). These promoters have several issues such as low thermal stability, heat-stable salt formation, and being highly degradable. Therefore, new class promoters need to be used to overcome these issues. Functionalized ionic liquids (FILs) have the potential to overcome these limitations. Hence, in this work, four different new class functionalized ionic liquids (FILs) were used as promoters and determined their effectivity toward enhancement of the CO2 absorption performance. The CO2 absorption is performed at different pressure (2 bar, 4.4 bar, and 7 bar) and different temperature (303, 313, and 323K). The results confirmed that CO2 loading increases around 18 to 22% after 5wt% FILs blended in the MDEA. It was noticed that the CO2 loading increases with increasing pressure and decreases with increasing temperature for all absorbents systems. Further, the absorption kinetics was determined, and results showed that all the FILs provide an excellent absorption rate enhancement. Additionally, for the interaction mechanism study, 13C NMR analysis was performed for the blend aqueous MDEA-CO2 system. The results suggested that the FILs blend MDEA system produced a high amount of carbamates and bicarbonates during CO2 absorption, which further decreases with increasing temperature. Eventually, regeneration energy was calculated, and results confirmed that the energy heat duty penalty was lower in the [TETAH][Im] blend MDEA system. Overall, [TETAH][Pz], [TETAH][Im], [DETAH][Im] and [DETAH][Tz] showed the promising ability as promoters to enhance CO2 capturing performance of MDEA.

Keywords: CO2 capture, interaction mechanism, kinetics, Ionic liquids

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18515 Characterization, Antibacterial and Cytotoxicity Evaluation of Silver Nanoparticles Synthesised Using Grewia lasiocarpa E. Mey. Ex Harv. Plant Extracts

Authors: Nneka Augustina Akwu, Yougasphree Naidoo

Abstract:

Molecular advancement in technology has created a means whereby the atoms and molecules (solid forms) of certain materials such as plants, can now be reduced to a range of 1-100 nanometres. Green synthesis of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) was carried out at room temperature (RT) 25 ± 2°C and 80°C, using the metabolites in the aqueous extracts of the leaves and stem bark of Grewia lasiocarpa as reductants and stabilizing agents. The biosynthesized AgNPs were characterized by UV-Vis spectrophotometry, attenuated total reflectance - Fourier transforms infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA), Energy Dispersive X-ray fluorescence scanning electron microscope (SEM-EDXRF) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM). The AgNPs were biologically evaluated for antioxidant, antibacterial and cytotoxicity activities. The phytochemical and FTIR analyses revealed the presence of metabolites that act as reducing and capping agents, while the UV-Vis spectroscopy of the biosynthesized NPs showed absorption between 380-460 nm, confirming AgNP synthesis. The Zeta potential values were between -9.1 and -20.6 mV with a hydrodynamics diameter ranging from 38.3 to 46.7 nm. SEM and HRTEM analyses revealed that AgNPs were predominately spherical with an average particle size of 2- 31 nm for the leaves and 5-27 nm for the stem bark. The cytotoxicity IC50 values of the AgNPs against HeLa, Caco-2 and MCF-7 were >1 mg/mL. The AgNPs were sensitive to all strains of bacteria used, with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) and Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922) being more sensitive to the AgNPs. Our findings propose that antibacterial and anticancer agents could be derived from these AgNPs of G. lasiocarpa, and warrant their further investigation.

Keywords: antioxidant, cytotoxicity, Grewia lasiocarpa, silver nanoparticles, Zeta potentials

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18514 Unlocking Green Hydrogen Potential: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment

Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

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18513 Prediction of Sepsis Illness from Patients Vital Signs Using Long Short-Term Memory Network and Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Marcio Freire Cruz, Naoaki Ono, Shigehiko Kanaya, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira Cavalcante

Abstract:

The systems that record patient care information, known as Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and those that monitor vital signs of patients, such as heart rate, body temperature, and blood pressure have been extremely valuable for the effectiveness of the patient’s treatment. Several kinds of research have been using data from EMRs and vital signs of patients to predict illnesses. Among them, we highlight those that intend to predict, classify, or, at least identify patterns, of sepsis illness in patients under vital signs monitoring. Sepsis is an organic dysfunction caused by a dysregulated patient's response to an infection that affects millions of people worldwide. Early detection of sepsis is expected to provide a significant improvement in its treatment. Preceding works usually combined medical, statistical, mathematical and computational models to develop detection methods for early prediction, getting higher accuracies, and using the smallest number of variables. Among other techniques, we could find researches using survival analysis, specialist systems, machine learning and deep learning that reached great results. In our research, patients are modeled as points moving each hour in an n-dimensional space where n is the number of vital signs (variables). These points can reach a sepsis target point after some time. For now, the sepsis target point was calculated using the median of all patients’ variables on the sepsis onset. From these points, we calculate for each hour the position vector, the first derivative (velocity vector) and the second derivative (acceleration vector) of the variables to evaluate their behavior. And we construct a prediction model based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network, including these derivatives as explanatory variables. The accuracy of the prediction 6 hours before the time of sepsis, considering only the vital signs reached 83.24% and by including the vectors position, speed, and acceleration, we obtained 94.96%. The data are being collected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) Database, a public database that contains vital signs, laboratory test results, observations, notes, and so on, from more than 60.000 patients.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, long short-term memory, prediction, sepsis

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18512 The Prediction of Reflection Noise and Its Reduction by Shaped Noise Barriers

Authors: I. L. Kim, J. Y. Lee, A. K. Tekile

Abstract:

In consequence of the very high urbanization rate of Korea, the number of traffic noise damages in areas congested with population and facilities is steadily increasing. The current environmental noise levels data in major cities of the country show that the noise levels exceed the standards set for both day and night times. This research was about comparative analysis in search for optimal soundproof panel shape and design factor that can minimize sound reflection noise. In addition to the normal flat-type panel shape, the reflection noise reduction of swelling-type, combined swelling and curved-type, and screen-type were evaluated. The noise source model Nord 2000, which often provides abundant information compared to models for the similar purpose, was used in the study to determine the overall noise level. Based on vehicle categorization in Korea, the noise levels for varying frequency from different heights of the sound source (directivity heights of Harmonize model) have been calculated for simulation. Each simulation has been made using the ray-tracing method. The noise level has also been calculated using the noise prediction program called SoundPlan 7.2, for comparison. The noise level prediction was made at 15m (R1), 30 m (R2) and at middle of the road, 2m (R3) receiving the point. By designing the noise barriers by shape and running the prediction program by inserting the noise source on the 2nd lane to the noise barrier side, among the 6 lanes considered, the reflection noise slightly decreased or increased in all noise barriers. At R1, especially in the cases of the screen-type noise barriers, there was no reduction effect predicted in all conditions. However, the swelling-type showed a decrease of 0.7~1.2 dB at R1, performing the best reduction effect among the tested noise barriers. Compared to other forms of noise barriers, the swelling-type was thought to be the most suitable for reducing the reflection noise; however, since a slight increase was predicted at R2, further research based on a more sophisticated categorization of related design factors is necessary. Moreover, as swellings are difficult to produce and the size of the modules are smaller than other panels, it is challenging to install swelling-type noise barriers. If these problems are solved, its applicable region will not be limited to other types of noise barriers. Hence, when a swelling-type noise barrier is installed at a downtown region where the amount of traffic is increasing every day, it will both secure visibility through the transparent walls and diminish any noise pollution due to the reflection. Moreover, when decorated with shapes and design, noise barriers will achieve a visual attraction than a flat-type one and thus will alleviate any psychological hardships related to noise, other than the unique physical soundproofing functions of the soundproof panels.

Keywords: reflection noise, shaped noise barriers, sound proof panel, traffic noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
18511 Large Eddy Simulation of Hydrogen Deflagration in Open Space and Vented Enclosure

Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie

Abstract:

This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure

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18510 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process

Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

Abstract:

The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
18509 Phytochemical Screening, Antioxidant and Hepatoprotection Assessment of Extracts of Coriandrum sativm L. on Wistar Rats

Authors: Hiba T. Allah ALtieb Gusm ALsied, Amna Beshir Medani Ahmed, Ikram Mohamed ELtayeb, Saad Mohamed Hussein Ayoub

Abstract:

This study was carried out to determine the hepatoactivity and the antioxidant activity of Coiradrum sativum L. aerial part and fruit extracts against CCL4 induced acute liver damages in Wistar rats. The aerial parts and fruits part of the plant were extracted 96% ethanol with soxhlet apparatus. Hepatic injury was achieved by subcutaneous injection of 3 ml/kg of CCL4 diluted with olive oil with ratio 1:1. The extracts were mixed together 1:1 ratio and given in different doses 100,200,400 mg/kg/day for 5 days under CCL4 induction at 3rd day. The significance of differences between means by using T-test was compared among the groups. The mixture of the two extracts didn’t show any significant result in protecting liver injury (antagonistic effects), it shows high level of liver enzyme like alkaline phosphatase (ALP), glutamate oxaloacetate transaminase (SGOT) and glutamate pyruvate transaminase (SGPT). Serological studies further confirmed the results. The results obtained were compared with silymarin (70 mg/kg/day) orally, the standard drug for hepatoprotection which show recovery close to normalization almost like that of silymarin; therefore, further studies on this plant with different ratios especially in isolated tissue to spot more light on antagonistic effects of the two extracts. Antioxidant activity of the extracts was determined by the DPPH method. The results obtained show high anti-oxidant activity for fruits extract while slight or moderate antioxidant activity to aerial extracts.

Keywords: antioxidant, aerial part, Coriadrum sativum L., fruity, hepatoprotection, Silymarin, phytochemical screening

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18508 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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18507 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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18506 The Study of the Absorption and Translocation of Chromium by Lygeum spartum in the Mining Region of Djebel Hamimat and Soil-Plant Interaction

Authors: H. Khomri, A. Bentellis

Abstract:

Since century of the Development Activities extraction and a dispersed mineral processing Toxic metals and much more contaminated vast areas occupied by what they natural outcrops. New types of metalliferous habitats are so appeared. A species that is Lygeum spartum attracted our curiosity because apart from its valuable role in desertification, it is apparently able to exclude antimony and other metals can be. This species, green leaf blades which are provided as cattle feed, would be a good subject for phytoremediation of mineral soils. The study of absorption and translocation of chromium by the Lygeum spartum in the mining region of Djebel Hamimat and the interaction soil-plant, revealed that soils of this species living in this region are alkaline, calcareous majority in their fine texture medium and saline in their minority. They have normal levels of organic matter. They are moderately rich in nitrogen. They contain total chromium content reaches a maximum of 66,80 mg Kg^(-1) and a total absence of soluble chromium. The results of the analysis of variance of the difference between bare soils and soils appear Lygeum spartum made a significant difference only for the silt and organic matter. But for the other variables analyzed this difference is not significant. Thus, this plant has only one action on the amendment, only the levels of silt and organic matter in soils. The results of the multiple regression of the chromium content of the roots according to all soil variables studied did appear that among the studied variables included in the model, only the electrical conductivity and clay occur in the explanation of contents chromium in roots. The chromium content of the aerial parts analyzed by regression based on all studied soil variables allows us to see only the variables: electrical conductivity and content of chromium in the root portion involved in the explanation of the content chromium in the aerial part.

Keywords: absorption, translocation, analysis of variance, chrome, Lygeum spartum, multiple regression, the soil variables

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18505 Experimentally Validated Analytical Model for Thermal Analysis of Multi-Stage Depressed Collector

Authors: Vishant Gahlaut, A Mercy Latha, Sanjay Kumar Ghosh

Abstract:

Multi-stage depressed collectors (MDC) are used as an efficiency enhancement technique in traveling wave tubes the high-energy electron beam, after its interaction with the RF signal, gets velocity sorted and collected at various depressed electrodes of the MDC. The ultimate goal is to identify an optimum thermal management scheme (cooling mechanism) that could extract the heat efficiently from the electrodes. Careful thermal analysis, incorporating the cooling mechanism is required to ensure that the maximum temperature does not exceed the safe limits. A simple analytical model for quick prediction of the thermal has been developed. The model has been developed for the worst-case un-modulated DC condition, where all the thermal power is dissipated in the last electrode (typically, fourth electrode in the case of the four-stage depressed collector). It considers the thermal contact resistances at various braze joints accounting for the practical non-uniformities. Analytical results obtained from the model have been validated with simulated and experimental results.

Keywords: multi-stage depressed collector, TWTs, thermal contact resistance, thermal management

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18504 Acoustic Performance and Application of Three Personalized Sound-Absorbing Materials

Authors: Fangying Wang, Zhang Sanming, Ni Qian

Abstract:

In recent years, more and more personalized sound absorbing materials have entered the Chinese room acoustical decoration market. The acoustic performance of three kinds of personalized sound-absorbing materials: Flame-retardant Flax Fiber Sound-absorbing Cotton, Eco-Friendly Sand Acoustic Panel and Transparent Micro-perforated Panel (Film) are tested by Reverberation Room Method. The sound absorption characteristic curves show that their performance match for or even exceed the traditional sound absorbing material. Through the application in the actual projects, these personalized sound-absorbing materials also proved their sound absorption ability and unique decorative effect.

Keywords: acoustic performance, application prospect personalized sound-absorbing materials

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18503 Physiochemical Analysis of Ground Water in Zaria, Kaduna state, Nigeria

Authors: E. D. Paul, F. G. Okibe, C. E. Gimba, S. Yakubu

Abstract:

Some physicochemical characteristics and heavy metal concentrations of water samples collected from ten boreholes in Samaru, Zaria, Kaduna state, Nigeria were analysed in order to assess the drinking water quality. Physicochemical parameters were determined using classical methods while the heavy metals were determined using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry. Results of the analysis obtained were as follows: Temperature 29 – 310C, pH 5.74 – 6.19, Electrical conductivity 3.21 – 7.54 µs, DO 0.51 – 1.00 mg/L, BOD 0.0001 – 0.006 mg/L, COD 160 – 260 mg/L, TDS 2.08 – 4.55 mg/L, Total Hardness 97.44 – 401.36 mg/L CaCO3, and Chloride 0.97 – 59.12 mg/L. Concentrations of heavy metals were in the range; Zinc 0.000 – 0.7568 mg/L, Lead 0.000 – 0.070 mg/L and Cadmium 0.000 – 0.009 mg/L. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Keywords: ground water, water quality, heavy metals, Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS)

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18502 Multi-Faceted Growth in Creative Industries

Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures

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18501 Fracture And Fatigue Crack Growth Analysis and Modeling

Authors: Volkmar Nolting

Abstract:

Fatigue crack growth prediction has become an important topic in both engineering and non-destructive evaluation. Crack propagation is influenced by the mechanical properties of the material and is conveniently modelled by the Paris-Erdogan equation. The critical crack size and the total number of load cycles are calculated. From a Larson-Miller plot the maximum operational temperature can for a given stress level be determined so that failure does not occur within a given time interval t. The study is used to determine a reasonable inspection cycle and thus enhances operational safety and reduces costs.

Keywords: fracturemechanics, crack growth prediction, lifetime of a component, structural health monitoring

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18500 Predicting the Areal Development of the City of Mashhad with the Automaton Fuzzy Cell Method

Authors: Mehran Dizbadi, Daniyal Safarzadeh, Behrooz Arastoo, Ansgar Brunn

Abstract:

Rapid and uncontrolled expansion of cities has led to unplanned aerial development. In this way, modeling and predicting the urban growth of a city helps decision-makers. In this study, the aspect of sustainable urban development has been studied for the city of Mashhad. In general, the prediction of urban aerial development is one of the most important topics of modern town management. In this research, using the Cellular Automaton (CA) model developed for geo data of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and presenting a simple and powerful model, a simulation of complex urban processes has been done.

Keywords: urban modeling, sustainable development, fuzzy cellular automaton, geo-information system

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18499 Numerical Erosion Investigation of Standalone Screen (Wire-Wrapped) Due to the Impact of Sand Particles Entrained in a Single-Phase Flow (Water Flow)

Authors: Ahmed Alghurabi, Mysara Mohyaldinn, Shiferaw Jufar, Obai Younis, Abdullah Abduljabbar

Abstract:

Erosion modeling equations were typically acquired from regulated experimental trials for solid particles entrained in single-phase or multi-phase flows. Evidently, those equations were later employed to predict the erosion damage caused by the continuous impacts of solid particles entrained in streamflow. It is also well-known that the particle impact angle and velocity do not change drastically in gas-sand flow erosion prediction; hence an accurate prediction of erosion can be projected. On the contrary, high-density fluid flows, such as water flow, through complex geometries, such as sand screens, greatly affect the sand particles’ trajectories/tracks and consequently impact the erosion rate predictions. Particle tracking models and erosion equations are frequently applied simultaneously as a method to improve erosion visualization and estimation. In the present work, computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based erosion modeling was performed using a commercially available software; ANSYS Fluent. The continuous phase (water flow) behavior was simulated using the realizable K-epsilon model, and the secondary phase (solid particles), having a 5% flow concentration, was tracked with the help of the discrete phase model (DPM). To accomplish a successful erosion modeling, three erosion equations from the literature were utilized and introduced to the ANSYS Fluent software to predict the screen wire-slot velocity surge and estimate the maximum erosion rates on the screen surface. Results of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, dissipation rate, the total pressure on the screen, screen wall shear stress, and flow velocity vectors were presented and discussed. Moreover, the particle tracks and path-lines were also demonstrated based on their residence time, velocity magnitude, and flow turbulence. On one hand, results from the utilized erosion equations have shown similarities in screen erosion patterns, locations, and DPM concentrations. On the other hand, the model equations estimated slightly different values of maximum erosion rates of the wire-wrapped screen. This is solely based on the fact that the utilized erosion equations were developed with some assumptions that are controlled by the experimental lab conditions.

Keywords: CFD simulation, erosion rate prediction, material loss due to erosion, water-sand flow

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18498 Real Estate Trend Prediction with Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

Abstract:

For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

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18497 A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Students’ Academic Performance in Higher Institutions

Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

Abstract:

There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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18496 The Effects of Metformin And PCL-sorafenib Nanoparticles Co-treatment on MCF-7 Cell Culture Model of Breast Cancer

Authors: Emad Heydarnia, Aref Sepasi, Nika Asefi, Sara Khakshournia, Javad Mohammadnejad

Abstract:

Background: Despite breakthrough therapeutics in breast cancer, it is one of the main causes of mortality among women worldwide. Thus, drug therapies for treating breast cancer have recently been developed by scientists. Metformin and Sorafenib are well-known therapeutic in breast cancer. In the present study, we combined Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib with metformin to improve drug absorption and promote therapeutic efficiency. Methods: The MCF-7 cells were treated with Metformin, Sorafenib, or PCL-sorafenib. The growth inhibitory effect of these drugs and cell viability were assessed using MTT and flow cytometry assays, respectively. The expression of targeted genes involved in cell proliferation, signaling, and the cell cycle was measured by Real-time PCR. Results: The results showed that MCF-7 cells treated with Metformin/Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin co-treatment contributed to 50% viability compared to untreated group. Moreover, PI and Annexin V staining tests showed that the cells viability for Metformin/Sorafenib and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin was 38% and 17%, respectively. Furthermore, Sorafenib/Metformin and PCL-sorafenib/Metformin leads to p53 gene expression increase by which they can increase ROS, thereby decreasing GPX4 gene expression. In addition, they affected the expression of BCL2, and BAX genes and altered the cell cycle. Conclusion: Together, the combination of PCL-sorafenib/Metformin and Sorafenib/Metformin increased Sorafenib absorption at lower doses and also leads to apoptosis and oxidative stress increases in MCF-7 cells.

Keywords: breast cancer, metformin, nanotechnology, sorafenib

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18495 Predictions of Values in a Causticizing Process

Authors: R. Andreola, O. A. A. Santos, L. M. M. Jorge

Abstract:

An industrial system for the production of white liquor of a paper industry, Klabin Paraná Papé is, formed by ten reactors was modeled, simulated, and analyzed. The developed model considered possible water losses by evaporation and reaction, in addition to variations in volumetric flow of lime mud across the reactors due to composition variations. The model predictions agreed well with the process measurements at the plant and the results showed that the slaking reaction is nearly complete at the third causticizing reactor, while causticizing ends by the seventh reactor. Water loss due to slaking reaction and evaporation occurs more pronouncedly in the slaking reaction than in the final causticizing reactors; nevertheless, the lime mud flow remains nearly constant across the reactors.

Keywords: causticizing, lime, prediction, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 352