Search results for: autoregressive moving average model

Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis

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E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.

Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy

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Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, F. Xiao, Chin T. Cheung, Ho C. Yu

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This study addresses a concept of the Sustainable Building Environmental Model (SBEM) developed to optimize energy consumption in air conditioning and ventilation (ACV) systems without any deterioration of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). The SBEM incorporates two main components: an adaptive comfort temperature control module (ACT) and a new carbon dioxide demand control module (nDCV). These two modules take an innovative approach to maintain satisfaction of the Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) with optimum energy consumption, they provide a rational basis of effective control. A total of 2133 sets of measurement data of indoor air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (Rh) and carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) were conducted in some Hong Kong offices to investigate the potential of integrating the SBEM. A simulation was used to evaluate the dynamic performance of the energy and air conditioning system with the integration of the SBEM in an air-conditioned building. It allows us make a clear picture of the control strategies and performed any pre-tuned of controllers before utilized in real systems. With the integration of SBEM, it was able to save up to 12.3% in simulation and 15% in field measurement of overall electricity consumption, and maintain the average carbon dioxide concentration within 1000ppm and occupant dissatisfaction in 20%.

Keywords: sustainable building environmental model (SBEM), adaptive comfort temperature (ACT), new demand control ventilation (nDCV), energy saving

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Authors: Byomakesh Debata, Jitendra Mahakud

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The recent financial crisis has been characterized by massive monetary policy interventions by the Central bank, and it has amplified the importance of liquidity for the stability of the stock market. This paper empirically elucidates the actual impact of monetary policy interventions on stock market liquidity covering all National Stock Exchange (NSE) Stocks, which have been traded continuously from 2002 to 2015. The present study employs a multivariate VAR model along with VAR-granger causality test, impulse response functions, block exogeneity test, and variance decomposition to analyze the direction as well as the magnitude of the relationship between monetary policy and market liquidity. Our analysis posits a unidirectional relationship between monetary policy (call money rate, base money growth rate) and aggregate market liquidity (traded value, turnover ratio, Amihud illiquidity ratio, turnover price impact, high-low spread). The impulse response function analysis clearly depicts the influence of monetary policy on stock liquidity for every unit innovation in monetary policy variables. Our results suggest that an expansionary monetary policy increases aggregate stock market liquidity and the reverse is documented during the tightening of monetary policy. To ascertain whether our findings are consistent across all periods, we divided the period of study as pre-crisis (2002 to 2007) and post-crisis period (2007-2015) and ran the same set of models. Interestingly, all liquidity variables are highly significant in the post-crisis period. However, the pre-crisis period has witnessed a moderate predictability of monetary policy. To check the robustness of our results we ran the same set of VAR models with different monetary policy variables and found the similar results. Unlike previous studies, we found most of the liquidity variables are significant throughout the sample period. This reveals the predictability of monetary policy on aggregate market liquidity. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by documenting a strong predictability of monetary policy on stock liquidity in an emerging economy with an order driven market making system like India. Most of the previous studies have been carried out in developing economies with quote driven or hybrid market making system and their results are ambiguous across different periods. From an eclectic sense, this study may be considered as a baseline study to further find out the macroeconomic determinants of liquidity of stocks at individual as well as aggregate level.

Keywords: market liquidity, monetary policy, order driven market, VAR, vector autoregressive model

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Authors: Paballo M. Moshupya, Tamiru A. Abiye, Ian Korir

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Mining and processing of naturally occurring radioactive materials could result in elevated levels of natural radionuclides in the environment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the radioactivity levels on a large scale in the West Rand District in South Africa, which is dominated by abandoned gold mine tailings and the consequential radiological exposures to members of the public. The activity concentrations of ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and 40K in mine tailings, soil and rocks were assessed using the BGO Super-Spec (RS-230) gamma spectrometer. The measured activity concentrations for ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and 40K in the studied mine tailings were found to range from 209.95 to 2578.68 Bq/kg, 19.49 to 108.00 Bq/kg and 31.30 to 626.00 Bq/kg, respectively. In surface soils, the overall average activity concentrations were found to be 59.15 Bq/kg, 34.91 and 245.64 Bq/kg for 238U, ²³²Th and 40K, respectively. For the rock samples analyzed, the mean activity concentrations were 32.97 Bq/kg, 32.26 Bq/kg and 351.52 Bg/kg for ²³⁸U, ²³²Th and 40K, respectively. High radioactivity levels were found in mine tailings, with ²³⁸U contributing significantly to the overall activity concentration. The external gamma radiation received from surface soil in the area is generally low, with an average of 0.07 mSv/y. The highest annual effective doses were estimated from the tailings dams and the levels varied between 0.14 mSv/y and 1.09 mSv/y, with an average of 0.51 mSv/y. In certain locations, the recommended dose constraint of 0.25 mSv/y from a single source to the average member of the public within the exposed population was exceeded, indicating the need for further monitoring and regulatory control measures specific to these areas to ensure the protection of resident members of the public.

Keywords: activity concentration, gold mine tailings, in-situ gamma spectrometry, radiological exposures

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Authors: Hadi Gholizadeh, Ali Tajdin

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To have effective production planning, it is necessary to control the quality of processes. This paper aims at improving the performance of the disposable essentials process using statistical quality control and goal programming in a vague environment. That is expressed uncertainty because there is always a measurement error in the real world. Therefore, in this study, the conditions are examined in a vague environment that is a distance-based environment. The disposable essentials process in Kach Company was studied. Statistical control tools were used to characterize the existing process for four factor responses including the average of disposable glasses’ weights, heights, crater diameters, and volumes. Goal programming was then utilized to find the combination of optimal factors setting in a vague environment which is measured to apply uncertainty of the initial information when some of the parameters of the models are vague; also, the fuzzy regression model is used to predict the responses of the four described factors. Optimization results show that the process capability index values for disposable glasses’ average of weights, heights, crater diameters and volumes were improved. Such increasing the quality of the products and reducing the waste, which will reduce the cost of the finished product, and ultimately will bring customer satisfaction, and this satisfaction, will mean increased sales.

Keywords: goal programming, quality control, vague environment, disposable glasses’ optimization, fuzzy regression

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Authors: Yasin Tadayonrad

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Most of the supply chain networks have many nodes starting from the suppliers’ side up to the customers’ side that each node sends/receives the raw materials/products from/to the other nodes. One of the major concerns in this kind of supply chain network is finding the best schedule for loading /unloading the shipments through the whole network by which all the constraints in the source and destination nodes are met and all the shipments are delivered on time. One of the main constraints in this problem is loading/unloading capacity in each source/ destination node at each time slot (e.g., per week/day/hour). Because of the different characteristics of different products/groups of products, the capacity of each node might differ based on each group of products. In most supply chain networks (especially in the Fast-moving consumer goods industry), there are different planners/planning teams working separately in different nodes to determine the loading/unloading timeslots in source/destination nodes to send/receive the shipments. In this paper, a mathematical problem has been proposed to find the best timeslots for loading/unloading the shipments minimizing the overall delays subject to respecting the capacity of loading/unloading of each node, the required delivery date of each shipment (considering the lead-times), and working-days of each node. This model was implemented on python and solved using Python-MIP on a sample data set. Finally, the idea of a heuristic algorithm has been proposed as a way of improving the solution method that helps to implement the model on larger data sets in real business cases, including more nodes and shipments.

Keywords: supply chain management, transportation, multiple-multiple network, timeslots management, mathematical modeling, mixed integer programming

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Authors: M. F. Miah, K. M. A. Zinnah, M. J. Raihan, H. Ali, M. N. Naser

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As genetic diversity is most important for existing, breeding and production of any fish; this study was undertaken for investigating genetic diversity of freshwater mud eel, Monopterus cuchia at population level where three ecological populations such as flooded area of Sylhet (P1), open water of Moulvibazar (P2) and open water of Sunamganj (P3) districts of Bangladesh were considered. Four arbitrary RAPD primers (OPB-12, C0-4, B-03 and OPB-08) were screened and RAPD banding patterns were analyzed among the populations considering 15 individuals of each population. In total 174, 138 and 149 bands were detected in the populations of P1, P2 and P3 respectively; however, each primer revealed less number of bands in each population. 100% polymorphic loci were recorded in P2 and P3 whereas only one monomorphic locus was observed in P1, recorded 97.5% polymorphism. Different genetic parameters such as inter-individual pairwise similarity, genetic distance, Nei genetic similarity, linkage distances, cluster analysis and allelic information, etc. were considered for measuring genetic diversity. The average inter-individual pairwise similarity was recorded 2.98, 1.47 and 1.35 in P1, P2 and P3 respectively. Considering genetic distance analysis, the highest distance 1 was recorded in P2 and P3 and the lowest genetic distance 0.444 was found in P2. The average Nei genetic similarity was observed 0.19, 0.16 and 0.13 in P1, P2 and P3, respectively; however, the average linkage distance was recorded 24.92, 17.14 and 15.28 in P1, P3 and P2 respectively. Based on linkage distance, genetic clusters were generated in three populations where 6 clades and 7 clusters were found in P1, 3 clades and 5 clusters were observed in P2 and 4 clades and 7 clusters were detected in P3. In addition, allelic information was observed where the frequency of p and q alleles were observed 0.093 and 0.907 in P1, 0.076 and 0.924 in P2, 0.074 and 0.926 in P3 respectively. The average gene diversity was observed highest in P2 (0.132) followed by P3 (0.131) and P1 (0.121) respectively.

Keywords: genetic diversity, Monopterus cuchia, population, RAPD, Bangladesh

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Authors: Amir Deljoo

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The endeavor to comprehend the existence have been the center of thought for human in form of different disciplines and now basically in physics as the theory of everything. Here, after a brief review of the basic frameworks of thought, and a history of thought since ancient up to present, a logical methodology is presented based on a core axiom after which a function, a proto-field and then a coordinates are explained. Afterwards a generalization to Standard Model is proposed as General Standard Model which is believed to be the base of the Unified Theory of Everything.

Keywords: general relativity, grand unified theory, quantum mechanics, standard model, theory of everything

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Authors: M. Maatar, M. Mekadem, M. Medale, B. Hadjed, B. Imine

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In this paper, numerical simulations have been carried out to study the performances of a flapping wing used as an energy collector. Metamodeling and genetic algorithms are used to detect the optimal configuration, improving power coefficient and/or efficiency. Radial basis functions and genetic algorithms have been applied to solve this problem. Three optimization factors are controlled, namely dimensionless heave amplitude h₀, pitch amplitude θ₀ and flapping frequency f. ANSYS FLUENT software has been used to solve the principal equations at a Reynolds number of 1100, while the heave and pitch motion of a NACA0015 airfoil has been realized using a developed function (UDF). The results reveal an average power coefficient and efficiency of 0.78 and 0.338 with an inexpensive low-fidelity model and a total relative error of 4.1% versus the simulation. The performances of the simulated optimum RBF-NSGA-II have been improved by 1.2% compared with the validated model.

Keywords: numerical simulation, flapping wing, energy extraction, power coefficient, efficiency, RBF, NSGA-II

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Authors: Monica Gonzalez Machorro

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Dementia is hard to diagnose because of the lack of early physical symptoms. Early dementia recognition is key to improving the living condition of patients. Speech technology is considered a valuable biomarker for this challenge. Recent works have utilized conventional acoustic features and machine learning methods to detect dementia in speech. BERT-like classifiers have reported the most promising performance. One constraint, nonetheless, is that these studies are either based on human transcripts or on transcripts produced by automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. This research contribution is to explore a method that does not require transcriptions to detect early Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This is achieved by fine-tuning a pre-trained ASR model for the downstream early AD and MCI tasks. To do so, a subset of the thoroughly studied Pitt Corpus is customized. The subset is balanced for class, age, and gender. Data processing also involves cropping the samples into 10-second segments. For comparison purposes, a baseline model is defined by training and testing a Random Forest with 20 extracted acoustic features using the librosa library implemented in Python. These are: zero-crossing rate, MFCCs, spectral bandwidth, spectral centroid, root mean square, and short-time Fourier transform. The baseline model achieved a 58% accuracy. To fine-tune HuBERT as a classifier, an average pooling strategy is employed to merge the 3D representations from audio into 2D representations, and a linear layer is added. The pre-trained model used is ‘hubert-large-ls960-ft’. Empirically, the number of epochs selected is 5, and the batch size defined is 1. Experiments show that our proposed method reaches a 69% balanced accuracy. This suggests that the linguistic and speech information encoded in the self-supervised ASR-based model is able to learn acoustic cues of AD and MCI.

Keywords: automatic speech recognition, early Alzheimer’s recognition, mild cognitive impairment, speech impairment

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Authors: Zia Ullah, Ruh Ullah

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A research study was conceded in four locations (Swat, Dir, Kakul and Balakot) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to find agro-climatic classes by using aridity index, Growing Degree Days of wheat and maize, crop growth index and Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall by using long term climatic data (1970-2010). The climatic data used for research was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad, Agriculture Research Institute, Weather Station Peshawar and Tarnab Peshawar. Agro-climatic classes of each location were determined using three criteria mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month and aridity index. The agro-climatic classes of Dir, Swat, Kakul and Balakot were classified as Humid, Cold and very Warm (H-K-VW). Average aridity index of wheat for Dir, Swat, Kakul, and Balakot was 2.23, 2.67, 1.94 and 2.34 and for Maize was 1.31, 1.26, 1.97, and 2.83 respectively. The overall and decade-wise trend of GDD of Wheat and Maize was declined in Swat and Kakul while increased in Dir and Balakot.The average maximum CGI (1.26) and (0.73) of Wheat and Maize was observed for Balakot and Dir, while the minimum (1.09) and (0.62) was observed for Swat and Kakul. Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall shows that the trend has increased in Swat while decreased in Dir, Kakul and Balakot. From the relation between rainfalls with altitude showed that there was an increasing trend between rainfalls with altitude. The maximum average rainfall was in Swat (2703mm) on altitude 2000m while the minimum average rainfall was observed in Kakul (1410mm) on altitude of 1255m.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, aridity index, GDD, rainfall

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Authors: Vanessa Matias Leite, Jandira Guenka Palma, Flávio Henrique de Oliveira

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This paper presents a model-oriented development approach to software development in the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architectural standard. This approach aims to expose a process of extractions of information from the models, in which through rules and syntax defined in this work, assists in the design of the initial model and its future conversions. The proposed paper presents a syntax based on the natural language, according to the rules agreed in the classic grammar of the Portuguese language, added to the rules of conversions generating models that follow the norms of the Object Management Group (OMG) and the Meta-Object Facility MOF.

Keywords: BNF Syntax, model driven architecture, model-view-controller, transformation, UML

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Authors: Janaki Rama Raju Patchamatla, Emani Pavan Kumar

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The idea of increasing the existing train speeds and introduction of the high-speed trains in India as a part of Vision-2020 is really challenging from both economic viability and technical feasibility. More than economic viability, technical feasibility has to be thoroughly checked for safe operation and execution. Trains moving at high speeds need a well-established firm and safe track thoroughly tested against vibration effects. With increased speeds of trains, the track structure and layered soil-structure interaction have to be critically assessed for vibration and displacements. Physical establishment of track, testing and experimentation is a costly and time taking process. Software-based modelling and simulation give relatively reliable, cost-effective means of testing effects of critical parameters like sleeper design and density, properties of track and sub-grade, etc. The present paper reports the applicability of infinite elements in reducing the unrealistic stress-wave reflections from so-called soil-structure interface. The influence of the infinite elements is quantified in terms of the displacement time histories of adjoining soil and the deformation pattern in general. In addition, the railhead response histories at various locations show that the numerical model is realistic without any aberrations at the boundaries. The numerical model is quite promising in its ability to simulate the critical parameters of track design.

Keywords: high speed railway track, finite element method, Infinite elements, vibration analysis, soil-structure interface

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Piotr Kacejko, Mariusz Duk, Miroslaw Wendeker

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This paper presents an adaptive controller to track the maximum power point of a photovoltaic modules (PV) under fast irradiation change on the city-bus roof. Photovoltaic systems have been a prominent option as an additional energy source for vehicles. The Municipal Transport Company (MPK) in Lublin has installed photovoltaic panels on its buses roofs. The solar panels turn solar energy into electric energy and are used to load the buses electric equipment. This decreases the buses alternators load, leading to lower fuel consumption and bringing both economic and ecological profits. A DC–DC boost converter is selected as the power conditioning unit to coordinate the operating point of the system. In addition to the conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic panel, the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method also plays a main role to harvest most energy out of the sun. The MPPT unit on a moving vehicle must keep tracking accuracy high in order to compensate rapid change of irradiation change due to dynamic motion of the vehicle. Maximum power point track controllers should be used to increase efficiency and power output of solar panels under changing environmental factors. There are several different control algorithms in the literature developed for maximum power point tracking. However, energy performances of MPPT algorithms are not clarified for vehicle applications that cause rapid changes of environmental factors. In this study, an adaptive MPPT algorithm is examined at real ambient conditions. PV modules are mounted on a moving city bus designed to test the solar systems on a moving vehicle. Some problems of a PV system associated with a moving vehicle are addressed. The proposed algorithm uses a scanning technique to determine the maximum power delivering capacity of the panel at a given operating condition and controls the PV panel. The aim of control algorithm was matching the impedance of the PV modules by controlling the duty cycle of the internal switch, regardless of changes of the parameters of the object of control and its outer environment. Presented algorithm was capable of reaching the aim of control. The structure of an adaptive controller was simplified on purpose. Since such a simple controller, armed only with an ability to learn, a more complex structure of an algorithm can only improve the result. The presented adaptive control system of the PV system is a general solution and can be used for other types of PV systems of both high and low power. Experimental results obtained from comparison of algorithms by a motion loop are presented and discussed. Experimental results are presented for fast change in irradiation and partial shading conditions. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed method is simple to implement with minimum tracking time and high tracking efficiency proving superior to the proposed method. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, PBS, under Grant Agreement No. PBS 2/A6/16/2013.

Keywords: adaptive control, photovoltaic energy, city bus electric load, DC-DC converter

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Authors: Ovais U. Khan, G. M. Arshed, S. A. Raza, H. Ali

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A numerical model based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach is developed to investigate heat transfer across a longitudinal row of six circular cylinders. The momentum and energy equations are solved using the finite volume discretization technique. The convective terms are discretized using a second-order upwind methodology, whereas diffusion terms are discretized using a central differencing scheme. The second-order implicit technique is utilized to integrate time. Numerical simulations have been carried out for three different values of free stream Reynolds number (ReD) 100, 200, 300 and two different values of dimensionless longitudinal pitch ratio (SL/D) 1.5, 2.5 to demonstrate the fluid flow and heat transfer behavior. Numerical results are validated with the analytical findings reported in the literature and have been found to be in good agreement. The maximum percentage error in values of the average Nusselt number obtained from the numerical and analytical solutions is in the range of 10% for the free stream Reynolds number up to 300. It is demonstrated that the average Nusselt number for the array of cylinders increases with increasing the free stream Reynolds number and dimensionless longitudinal pitch ratio. The information generated would be useful in the design of more efficient heat exchangers or other fluid systems involving arrays of cylinders.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, array of cylinders, longitudinal pitch ratio, finite volume method, incompressible navier-stokes equations

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Authors: Cynthia E. Nwobodo, A. E. Agwu

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The study was carried out in Benue State, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 120 respondents from two agricultural zones in the State. Data was collected using interview schedule. Descriptive statistics was used in data analysis. Findings showed that youth farmers in the area had positive attitude to climate change adaptation and mitigation as shown by their response to a set of positive and negative statement including: the youth are very important stakeholders in climate change issues (M= 2.91), youths should be encouraged to be climate change conscious (2.90), everybody should be involved in planting trees not just the government (M= 2.89), I will be glad to participate in climate change seminars (M= 2.89) among others. Findings on information seeking behavior indicate that majority (80.8 %) of the respondents sought climate change information from radio at an average of 19.78 times per month, 53.3 % sought from friends and neighbours at an average of 12.55 times per month and 42.5 % sought from family members at an average of 12.55 times per month among others. It was recommended that Youth farmers should be made important stakeholders in climate change policies and programmes since they have a very positive attitude to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Keywords: adaptation, mitigation, attitude, climate change, youth farmers

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Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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Authors: Mostafa Kazemi, Zahra N. Farkhani

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This paper proposes an integrated Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) model for measuring the technical efficiency of decision making units. The model is validated using a set of 69% sales representatives’ dairy products. The analysis is done in two stages, in the first stage, VIF technique is used to distinguish independent effective factors of resellers, and in the second stage we used DEA for measuring efficiency for both constant and variable return to scales status. Further DEA is used to examine the utilization of environmental factors on efficiency. Results of this paper indicated an average managerial efficiency of 83% in the whole sales representatives’ dairy products. In addition, technical and scale efficiency were counted 96% and 80% respectively. 38% of sales representative have the technical efficiency of 100% and 72% of the sales representative in terms of managerial efficiency are quite efficient.High levels of relative efficiency indicate a good condition for sales representative efficiency.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis (DEA), relative efficiency, sales representatives’ dairy products, variance inflation factor (VIF)

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Stepped spillway includes several steps from the crest to the toe. The steps of stepped spillway could cause to decrease the energy with making energy distribution in the longitude mode and also to reduce the outcome speed. The aim of this study was to stimulate the stepped spillway combined with stilling basin-step using Fluent model and the turbulent superficial flow using RNG, K-ε. The free surface of the flow was monitored by VOF model. The velocity and the depth of the flow were measured by tail water depth by the numerical model and then the dissipated energy was calculated along the spillway. The results indicated that the stilling basin-step complex may cause energy dissipation increment in the stepped spillway. Also, the numerical model was suggested as an effective method to predict the circular and complicated flows in the stepped spillways.

Keywords: stepped spillway, fluent model, VOF model, K-ε model, energy distribution

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Authors: C. Scurr, J. Jeans, S. Srivastava

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Introduction: Acute type two respiratory failure (T2RF) has become a common presentation over the last two decades primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of chronic lung disease. Acute exacerbations can be managed either medically or in combination with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) which should be monitored with regular arterial blood gas samples (ABG). Arterial lines allow more frequent arterial blood sampling with less patient discomfort. We present the experience from a teaching hospital emergency department (ED) and level 2 medical high-dependency unit (HDU) that together form the pathway for management of acute type 2 respiratory failure. Methods: Patients acutely presenting to Charing Cross Hospital, London, with T2RF requiring non-invasive ventilation (NIV) over 14 months (2011 to 2012) were identified from clinical coding. Retrospective data collection included: demographics, co-morbidities, blood gas numbers and timing, if arterial lines were used and who performed this. Analysis was undertaken using Microsoft Excel. Results: Coding identified 107 possible patients. 69 notes were available, of which 41 required NIV for type 2 respiratory failure. 53.6% of patients had an arterial line inserted. Patients with arterial lines had 22.4 ABG in total on average compared to 8.2 for those without. These patients had a similar average time to normalizing pH of (23.7 with arterial line vs 25.6 hours without), and no statistically significant difference in mortality. Arterial lines were inserted by Foundation year doctors, Core trainees, Medical registrars as well as the ICU registrar. 63% of these were performed by the medical registrar rather than ICU, ED or a junior doctor. This is reflected in that the average time until an arterial line was inserted was 462 minutes. The average number of ABGs taken before an arterial line was 2 with a range of 0 – 6. The average number of gases taken if no arterial line was ever used was 7.79 (range of 2-34) – on average 4 times as many arterial punctures for each patient. Discussion: Arterial line use was associated with more frequent arterial blood sampling during each inpatient admission. Additionally, patients with an arterial line have less individual arterial punctures in total and this is likely more comfortable for the patient. Arterial lines are normally sited by medical registrars, however this is normally after some delay. ED clinicians could improve patient comfort and monitoring thus allowing faster titration of NIV if arteral lines were regularly inserted in the ED. We recommend that ED doctors insert arterial lines when indicated in order improve the patient experience and facilitate medical management.

Keywords: non invasive ventilation, arterial blood gas, acute type, arterial line

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Authors: S. Y. Cicekli

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In this study, tree-dimensional model of tree was created by using terrestrial close range photogrammetry. For this close range photos were taken. Photomodeler Pro 5 software was used for camera calibration and create three-dimensional model of trees. In first test, three-dimensional model of a tree was created, in the second test three-dimensional model of three trees were created. This study aim is creating three-dimensional model of trees and indicate the use of close-range photogrammetry in forestry. At the end of the study, three-dimensional model of tree and three trees were created. This study showed that usability of close-range photogrammetry for monitoring tree and forests three-dimensional model.

Keywords: close- range photogrammetry, forest, tree, three-dimensional model

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Authors: Jayanth Abishek Subramanian, Ramin Dabirian, Ilias Gavrielatos, Ram Mohan, Ovadia Shoham

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Downcomers are important conduits for multiphase flow transfer from offshore platforms to the seabed. Uncertainty in the predictions of the pressure drop of multiphase flow between platforms is often dominated by the uncertainty associated with the prediction of holdup and pressure drop in the downcomer. The objectives of this study are to conduct experimental and theoretical scale-up study of the downcomer. A 4-in. diameter vertical test section was designed and constructed to study two-phase flow in downcomer. The facility is equipped with baffles for flow area restriction, enabling interchangeable annular slot openings between 30% and 61.7%. Also, state-of-the-art instrumentation, the capacitance Wire-Mesh Sensor (WMS) was utilized to acquire the experimental data. A total of 76 experimental data points were acquired, including falling film under 30% and 61.7% annular slot opening for air-water and air-Conosol C200 oil cases as well as gas carry-under for 30% and 61.7% opening utilizing air-Conosol C200 oil. For all experiments, the parameters such as falling film thickness and velocity, entrained liquid holdup in the core, gas void fraction profiles at the cross-sectional area of the liquid column, the void fraction and the gas carry under were measured. The experimental results indicated that the film thickness and film velocity increase as the flow area reduces. Also, the increase in film velocity increases the gas entrainment process. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the increase of gas entrainment for the same liquid flow rate leads to an increase in the gas carry-under. A power comparison method was developed to enable evaluation of the Lopez (2011) model, which was created for full bore downcomer, with the novel scale-up experiment data acquired from the downcomer with the restricted area for flow. Comparison between the experimental data and the model predictions shows a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.9% and 21.8% for the falling film thickness and velocity, respectively; and a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.2% for fraction of gas carried with the liquid (oil).

Keywords: two phase flow, falling film, downcomer, wire-mesh sensor

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Authors: Razi Khalafi

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Brain is the information processing center of the human body. Stimuli in form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modeling of the EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for the modeling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: Brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, eeg signal

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Authors: Yutae Lee

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In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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Authors: Deniz Sari, Selahattin İncecik, Nesimi Ozkurt

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Surface ozone, which named as one of the most critical pollutants in the 21th century, threats to human health, forest and vegetation. Specifically, in rural areas surface ozone cause significant influences on agricultural productions and trees. In this study, in order to understand to the surface ozone levels in rural areas we focus on the north-western side of Biga Peninsula which covers by the mountainous and forested area. Ozone concentrations were measured for the first time with passive sampling at 10 sites and two online monitoring stations in this rural area from 2013 and 2015. Using with the daytime hourly O3 measurements during light hours (08:00–20:00) exceeding the threshold of 40 ppb over the 3 months (May, June and July) for agricultural crops, and over the six months (April to September) for forest trees AOT40 (Accumulated hourly O3 concentrations Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) cumulative index was calculated. AOT40 is defined by EU Directive 2008/50/EC to evaluate whether ozone pollution is a risk for vegetation, and is calculated by using hourly ozone concentrations from monitoring systems. In the present study, we performed the trajectory analysis by The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to follow the long-range transport sources contributing to the high ozone levels in the region. The ozone episodes observed between 2013 and 2015 were analysed using the HYSPLIT model developed by the NOAA-ARL. In addition, the cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of air mass transport patterns can be conducted through air trajectory clustering by grouping similar trajectories in terms of air mass movement. Backward trajectories produced for 3 years by HYSPLIT model were assigned to different clusters according to their moving speed and direction using a k-means clustering algorithm. According to cluster analysis results, northerly flows to study area cause to high ozone levels in the region. The results present that the ozone values in the study area are above the critical levels for forest and vegetation based on EU Directive 2008/50/EC.

Keywords: AOT40, Biga Peninsula, HYSPLIT, surface ozone

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Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

Abstract:

Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype

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Authors: P. R. Prabhu, S. M. Kulkarni, S. S. Sharma, K. Jagannath, Achutha Kini U.

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In the present study, response surface methodology has been used to optimize turn-assisted deep cold rolling process of AISI 4140 steel. A regression model is developed to predict surface hardness and surface roughness using response surface methodology and central composite design. In the development of predictive model, deep cold rolling force, ball diameter, initial roughness of the workpiece, and number of tool passes are considered as model variables. The rolling force and the ball diameter are the significant factors on the surface hardness and ball diameter and numbers of tool passes are found to be significant for surface roughness. The predicted surface hardness and surface roughness values and the subsequent verification experiments under the optimal operating conditions confirmed the validity of the predicted model. The absolute average error between the experimental and predicted values at the optimal combination of parameter settings for surface hardness and surface roughness is calculated as 0.16% and 1.58% respectively. Using the optimal processing parameters, the hardness is improved from 225 to 306 HV, which resulted in an increase in the near surface hardness by about 36% and the surface roughness is improved from 4.84µm to 0.252 µm, which resulted in decrease in the surface roughness by about 95%. The depth of compression is found to be more than 300µm from the microstructure analysis and this is in correlation with the results obtained from the microhardness measurements. Taylor Hobson Talysurf tester, micro Vickers hardness tester, optical microscopy and X-ray diffractometer are used to characterize the modified surface layer.

Keywords: hardness, response surface methodology, microstructure, central composite design, deep cold rolling, surface roughness

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Authors: Ahmad Qabaha

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This paper teases out the ways in which the constructs of placelessness and mobility are articulated in modern exilic Palestinian literature and American expatriate writing. The mode of placelessness embodied by the characters of each of my two authors (expatriation in Paris Montparnasse for Hemingway's characters and involuntary exile in Europe for Jabra's) will be elicited from the orientations of their mobility. This paper argues that the proclivity of Hemingway's characters for centrifugal motion (moving away from the centre) is a strategy to increase their sense of freedom that space (expatriation), rather than place, secures. By contrast, the movement of Jabra's characters is centripetal (moving or tending to move towards the centre). It echoes his Palestinian characters' recurrent futile attempts to return to Palestine, and it expresses their resistance to the lures of exile. This paper asserts that the involuntarily exiled character (the Palestinian in this case) is a figure obsessed with and ache for a place, roots and 'a dwelling' from which he was uprooted - a place that defines his authentic existence and frames his understanding of the world in Martin Heidegger's, Simone Weil's and Gaston Bachelard's senses. In parallel, this paper explains that the expatriate character (the American in this case) views place as confining, restrictive and disagreeable, while mobility as a figure of freedom, resistance, wealth, self-fashioning and understanding/inhabiting the world. Place in this sense is associated with past, tradition, ideology, existence and being. Mobility is equivalent with modernity, progression, innovation, self-fashioning and freedom.

Keywords: American expatriate literature, exilic Palestinian literature, mobility, place, placelessness

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Authors: Payal Maheshwari, Bansari Shah

Abstract:

The research aimed to study the level of emotional intelligence (EI) and organizational role stress (ORS) of fire-fighters and the relationship between the two variables. Hundred and twenty fire-fighters were selected from different fire stations of Mumbai by purposive sampling. The firefighters who had the basic training, a minimum experience of 2 years and had been on the field during a crisis situation were selected for the study. The firefighters selected ranged from 23-58 years of age, and the number of years of experience ranged from 2 to 33 years. The findings of the study revealed that majority of the firefighters perceived themselves to be at an above average (57) and high (58) level of EI (M=429.35, SD=38.712). Domain-wise analysis disclosed that compared to self-awareness (92) and relationship management (93), more number of participants perceived themselves in the high category in the domains of self-management (108) and social management (106). Further, examination of the subdomain scores conveyed that a large number of participants rated themselves in the average level of these skills of accurate self-assessment (50), emotional self-control (50), adaptability (56) initiative (41), influence (66), change catalyst (53), and conflict management (50). With relation to the stress variable, it was found that almost half the number of the participants (59) rated themselves as having an average level of stress (M=137.44, SD=28.800). In most of the domains, majority of the participants perceived themselves as having an average level of stress, while in the domain of role isolation, self-role distance, and role ambiguity, majority of the firefighters rated themselves as having a low level of stress. A strong negative correlation (r=-.360**, p=.000) was found between EI and ORS. This study is a contribution to the literature and has implications for fire-fighters at the personal level, for the policymakers, and the fire department.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, organizational role stress, firefighters, relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 104