Search results for: TensorFlow probability

Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

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Authors: Paul Saah, Charles Mbohwa, Nelson Sizwe Madonsela

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In the context of developing countries, this study explores a crucial component of economic development by examining the reasons behind the failure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are acknowledged as essential drivers of economic expansion, job creation, and poverty alleviation in emerging countries. This research uses South Africa as a case study to evaluate the reasons why SMEs fail in developing nations. This study explores a quantitative research methodology to investigate the complex causes of SME failures using statistical tools and reliability tests. To ensure the viability of data collection, a sample size of 400 small business owners was chosen using a non-probability selection technique. A closed-ended questionnaire was the primary technique used to obtain detailed information from the participants. Data was analysed and interpreted using computer software packages such as the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). According to the findings, the main reasons why SMEs fail in developing nations are a lack of strategic business planning, a lack of funding, poor management, a lack of innovation, a lack of business research and a low level of education and training. The results of this study show that SMEs can be sustainable and successful as long as they comprehend and use the suggested small business success determining variables into their daily operations. This implies that the more SMEs in developing countries implement the proposed determinant factors of small business success in their business operations the more the businesses are likely to succeed and vice versa.

Keywords: failure, developing countries, SMEs, economic development, South Africa

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Authors: Siddhi Khaire, Samarth Hawaldar, Baladitya Suri

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As efforts towards quantum communication advance, the need for single photon sources becomes imminent. Due to the extremely low energy of a single microwave photon, efforts to build single photon sources and detectors in the microwave range are relatively recent. We plan to use a Cooper Pair Box (CPB) that has a ‘sweet-spot’ where the two energy levels have minimal separation. Moreover, these qubits have fairly large anharmonicity making them close to ideal two-level systems. If the external gate voltage of these qubits is varied rapidly while passing through the sweet-spot, due to Landau-Zener effect, the qubit can be excited almost deterministically. The rapid change of the gate control voltage through the sweet spot induces a non-adiabatic population transfer from the ground to the excited state. The qubit eventually decays into the emission line emitting a single photon. The advantage of this setup is that the qubit can be excited without any coherent microwave excitation, thereby effectively increasing the usable source efficiency due to the absence of control pulse microwave photons. Since the probability of a Landau-Zener transition can be made almost close to unity by the appropriate design of parameters, this source behaves as an on-demand source of single microwave photons. The large anharmonicity of the CPB also ensures that only one excited state is involved in the transition and multiple photon output is highly improbable. Such a system has so far not been implemented and would find many applications in the areas of quantum optics, quantum computation as well as quantum communication.

Keywords: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum optics, superconducting qubits, flux qubit, charge qubit, microwave single photon source, quantum information processing

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Authors: R. Chinyakata, N. R. Raselekoane

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Migration has always been part of human history. Migration is spurred by globalisation which connects nations by encouraging the flow of goods, services, ideas and people across borders. Migration does not only involve movement of adults from one country to another. It also affects and involves the youth as they are the most mobile group. Musina area, like many other border areas, experiences a variety of challenges as a result of the influx of people from the neighbouring Zimbabwe and other African countries. Of great concern about this migration is the fact that the host country or area may become unsafe and unstable as a result of huge influx of migrants. There may also be tensions between local people and migrants over the resources. The study sought to investigate the effects of the Zimbabwean youth migration on Musina area. The study was undertaken in Musina area which is situated 18km from the Beit-Bridge border post. A qualitative research approach was used. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data. Non-probability quota sampling technique was used to select the respondents. The study sample consisted of sixteen female and male respondents. Thematic coding was used to analyse the data. Ethical considerations such as informed consent, confidentiality, anonymity and voluntary participation were taken into account to protect the participants. The study found that the effects of the Zimbabwean youth migration on the Musina area include, among others, tensions between locals and the Zimbabwean youth migrants over resources, job and business opportunities, overcrowding and crime. Multi-pronged strategies which involve different stakeholders should be applied to address tensions over job and business opportunities, overcrowding and crime in the Musina area.

Keywords: host country, effects, migrant, migration, Musina, youth, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Habte Tadesse Likassa, Bacha Edosa

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Customer’s satisfaction was very important thing that is required for the existence of banks to be more productive and success in any organization and business area. The main goal of the study is assessing and identifying factors that influence customer’s satisfaction in West Shoa Zone of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (Holeta, Ginchi, Ambo, Gedo and Bako). Stratified random sampling procedure was used in the study and by using simple random sampling (lottery method) 520 customers were drawn from the target population. By using Probability Proportional Size Techniques sample size for each branch of banks were allocated. Both descriptive and inferential statistics methods were used in the study. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to see the significance of factors affecting customer’s satisfaction in this study. SPSS statistical package was used for data analysis. The result of the study reveals that the overall level of customer’s satisfaction in the study area is low (38.85%) as compared those who were not satisfied (61.15%). The result of study showed that all most all factors included in the study were significantly associated with customer’s satisfaction. Therefore, it can be concluded that based on the comparison of branches on their customers satisfaction by using odd ratio customers who were using Ambo and Bako are less satisfied as compared to customers who were in Holeta branch. Additionally, customers who were in Ginchi and Gedo were more satisfied than that of customers who were in Holeta. Since the level of customers satisfaction was low in the study area, it is more advisable and recommended for concerned body works cooperatively more in maximizing satisfaction of their customers.

Keywords: customers, satisfaction, binary logistic, complain handling process, waiting time

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Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Kasturi Bhuyan

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In the present paper, Ground Response Analysis at the Rukni irrigation project has been thoroughly investigated. Surface level seismic hazard is mainly used by the practical Engineers for designing the important structures. Surface level seismic hazard can be obtained accounting the soil factor. Structures on soft soil will show more ground shaking than the structure located on a hard soil. The Surface level ground motion depends on the type of soil. Density and shear wave velocity is different for different types of soil. The intensity of the soil amplification depends on the density and shear wave velocity of the soil. Rukni irrigation project is located in the North Eastern region of India, near the Dauki fault (550 Km length) which has already produced earthquakes of magnitude (Mw= 8.5) in the past. There is a probability of a similar type of earthquake occuring in the future. There are several faults also located around the project site. There are 765 recorded strong ground motion time histories available for the region. These data are used to determine the soil amplification factor by incorporation of the engineering properties of soil. With this in view, three of soil bore holes have been studied at the project site up to a depth of 30 m. It has been observed that in Soil bore hole 1, the shear wave velocity vary from 99.44 m/s to 239.28 m/s. For Soil Bore Hole No 2 and 3, shear wave velocity vary from 93.24 m/s to 241.39 m/s and 93.24m/s to 243.01 m/s. In the present work, surface level seismic hazard at the project site has been calculated based on the Probabilistic seismic hazard approach accounting the soil factor.

Keywords: Ground Response Analysis, shear wave velocity, soil amplification, surface level seismic hazard

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Authors: Pornwipa Daoduong, Jairak Loysongkroa, Napaphan Viriyautsahakul, Wachira Pengjuntr

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Obesity is on of serious health problem in many countries including Thailand where the prevalence of childhood obesity has increased from 8.8 % in 2014 to 9.5 % in 2015 and 12.9 % in 2016. The Ministry of Public Health’s objective is to reduce prevalence of childhood Obesity to 10% or lower in 2017, by implementing the measure in relation to nutrition, physical activity (PA) and environment in 6,405 targeted school with proportion of school children with obesity is higher than 10 %. Smart Kids Coacher (SKC)” is a new innovative intervention created by Department of Health and consists of 252 regional and provincial officers. The SKC aims to train the super trainers about food and nutrition.PA and emotional control through implementing three learning activities including 1) Food for Fun is about Nutrition flag, Nutrition label, food portion and Nutrition surveillance; 2) Fun for Fit includes intermediated- and advanced level workouts within 60 minutes such as kangaroo dance, Chair stretching; and 3) Control emotional is about to prevent probability of access to unhealthy food, to ensure for having meal in appropriate time, and to recruit peers and family member to increase awareness among target groups. Apart from providing SKC lesson for 3,828 officers at district level, a number of students (2,176) as role model are selected through implementing “Smart Kids Leader: (SKL)”.Consequently. The SKC lowers proportion of childhood obesity from 17% in 2012 to 12.9% in 2016. Further, the SKC coverage should be expanded to other setting. Policy maker should be aware of the important of reduction of the prevalence of childhood obesity, and it’s related risk. Network and Collaboration between stakeholders are essential as well as an improvement of holistic intervention and knowledge “NuPETHS” for kids in the future.

Keywords: childhood obesity, model, obesity, smart kids coacher

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Authors: Miguel A. Orellana, Sonia E. Ruiz, Juan Bojórquez

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Optimal load factors (dead, live and seismic) used for the design of buildings may be different, depending of the seismic ground motion characteristics to which they are subjected, which are closely related to the type of soil conditions where the structures are located. The influence of the type of soil on those load factors, is analyzed in the present study. A methodology that is useful for establishing optimal load factors that minimize the cost over the life cycle of the structure is employed; and as a restriction, it is established that the probability of structural failure must be less than or equal to a prescribed value. The life-cycle cost model used here includes different types of costs. The optimization methodology is applied to two groups of reinforced concrete buildings. One set (consisting on 4-, 7-, and 10-story buildings) is located on firm ground (with a dominant period Ts=0.5 s) and the other (consisting on 6-, 12-, and 16-story buildings) on soft soil (Ts=1.5 s) of Mexico City. Each group of buildings is designed using different combinations of load factors. The statistics of the maximums inter-story drifts (associated with the structural capacity) are found by means of incremental dynamic analyses. The buildings located on firm zone are analyzed under the action of 10 strong seismic records, and those on soft zone, under 13 strong ground motions. All the motions correspond to seismic subduction events with magnitudes M=6.9. Then, the structural damage and the expected total costs, corresponding to each group of buildings, are estimated. It is concluded that the optimal load factors combination is different for the design of buildings located on firm ground than that for buildings located on soft soil.

Keywords: life-cycle cost, optimal load factors, reinforced concrete buildings, total costs, type of soil

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Authors: Eke Balla Sophie Michelle

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Forest provides a wide range of environmental goods and services among which, biodiversity or consumption goods and constitute public goods. Despite the importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in sustaining livelihood and poverty smoothening in rural communities, they are highly depleted and poorly conserved. Yokadouma is a town where NTFPs is a renewable resource in active exploitation. It has been found that such exploitation is done in the same conditions as other localities that have experienced a rapid depletion of their NTFPs in destination to cities across Cameroon, Central Africa, and overseas. Given these realities, it is necessary to access the consequences of this overexploitation through negative effects on both the population and the environment. Therefore, to enhance participatory conservation initiatives, this study determines the household’s willingness to pay in community forest (CF) of Morikouali-ye, eastern region of Cameroon, for sustainable exploitation of NTFPs using contingent valuation method (CVM) through two approaches, one parametric (Logit model) and the other non-parametric (estimator of the Turnbull lower bound). The results indicate that five species are the most collected in the study area: Irvingia gabonensis, the Ricinodendron heudelotii, Gnetum, the Jujube and bark, their sale contributes significantly to 41 % of total household income. The average willingness to pay through the Logit model and the Turnbull estimator is 6845.2861 FCFA and 4940 FCFA respectively per household per year with a social cost of degradation estimated at 3237820.3253 FCFA years. The probability to pay increases with income, gender, number of women in the household, age, the commercial activity of NTFPs and decreases with the concept of sustainable development.

Keywords: non timber forest product, contingent valuation method, willingness to pay, sustainable development

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Authors: Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, Malik Koubi, Joseph Lanfranchi, Yohan Wloczysiak

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This article assesses the consequences on the frequency and duration of ordinary sick leave of the January 2012 and 2018 reforms modifying the scope of sick leave reimbursement in the French civil service. These reforms introduce a one-day waiting period which removes the compensation for the first day of ordinary sick leave. In order to evaluate these reforms, we use an administrative database from the National Pension Fund for local public employees (FPT). The first important result of our data analysis is that the one-day waiting period was not introduced at the same time in the French Local Public Service establishments, or even never in some. This peculiarity allows for an identification strategy using a difference-in-differences method based on the definition at each date of groups of employees treated and not treated by the reform, since establishments that apply the one-day waiting period coexist with establishments that do not apply it. Two types of estimators are used for this evaluation: individual and time fixed effects estimators and DIDM estimators which correct for the biases of the Two Way Fixed Effects one. The results confirm that the change in the sick pay system decreases the probability of having at least one ordinary sick leave as well as the number and duration of these episodes. On the other hand, the estimates show that longer leave episodes are not less affected than shorter ones. Finally, the validity tests of the estimators support the results obtained for the second period of 2018-2019, but suggest estimation biases for the period 2012-2013. The extent to which the endogeneity of the choices of implementation of the reform at the local level impact these estimates needs to be further tested.

Keywords: sick leave, one-day waiting period, territorial civil service, public policy evaluation

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Authors: Lamees Nasser, Yago Diez, Robert Martí, Joan Martí, Ibrahim Sadek

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Automated 3D breast ultrasound (ABUS) screening is a novel modality in medical imaging because of its common characteristics shared with other ultrasound modalities in addition to the three orthogonal planes (i.e., axial, sagittal, and coronal) that are useful in analysis of tumors. In the literature, few automatic approaches exist for typical tasks such as segmentation or registration. In this work, we deal with two problems concerning ABUS images: nipple and rib detection. Nipple and ribs are the most visible and salient features in ABUS images. Determining the nipple position plays a key role in some applications for example evaluation of registration results or lesion follow-up. We present a nipple detection algorithm based on color and shape of the nipple, besides an automatic approach to detect the ribs. In point of fact, rib detection is considered as one of the main stages in chest wall segmentation. This approach consists of four steps. First, images are normalized in order to minimize the intensity variability for a given set of regions within the same image or a set of images. Second, the normalized images are smoothed by using anisotropic diffusion filter. Next, the ribs are detected in each slice by analyzing the eigenvalues of the 3D Hessian matrix. Finally, a breast mask and a probability map of regions detected as ribs are used to remove false positives (FP). Qualitative and quantitative evaluation obtained from a total of 22 cases is performed. For all cases, the average and standard deviation of the root mean square error (RMSE) between manually annotated points placed on the rib surface and detected points on rib borders are 15.1188 mm and 14.7184 mm respectively.

Keywords: Automated 3D Breast Ultrasound, Eigenvalues of Hessian matrix, Nipple detection, Rib detection

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Authors: Dhanuja S. Patil, Sanjay B. Waykar

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Event detection is a standout amongst the most key parts for distinctive sorts of area applications of video data framework. Recently, it has picked up an extensive interest of experts and in scholastics from different zones. While detecting video event has been the subject of broad study efforts recently, impressively less existing methodology has considered multi-model data and issues related efficiency. Start of soccer matches different doubtful circumstances rise that can't be effectively judged by the referee committee. A framework that checks objectively image arrangements would prevent not right interpretations because of some errors, or high velocity of the events. Bayesian networks give a structure for dealing with this vulnerability using an essential graphical structure likewise the probability analytics. We propose an efficient structure for analysing and summarization of soccer videos utilizing object-based features. The proposed work utilizes the t-cherry junction tree, an exceptionally recent advancement in probabilistic graphical models, to create a compact representation and great approximation intractable model for client’s relationships in an interpersonal organization. There are various advantages in this approach firstly; the t-cherry gives best approximation by means of junction trees class. Secondly, to construct a t-cherry junction tree can be to a great extent parallelized; and at last inference can be performed utilizing distributed computation. Examination results demonstrates the effectiveness, adequacy, and the strength of the proposed work which is shown over a far reaching information set, comprising more soccer feature, caught at better places.

Keywords: summarization, detection, Bayesian network, t-cherry tree

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Authors: J. S. P. Barbosa, L. C. Pereira, K. R. Garcia, P. C. P. Bouchardet, S. C. T. Vieira, A. O. Gomes, S. S. Funghetto, M. G. O. Kanikowski

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For this population, height seems to be a good predictor of strength and body composition. This increase in life expectancy of the Brazilian's population is associated with sociodemographic variables, but also to more access to health services in the prevention and better living conditions. With the growth of elderly population, a problem that has been a concern to health's professionals and public health at all is the use of psychoactive substances. The purpose of this study was to identify the sociodemographic profile of the elderly people who was attended at the Center of Psychosocial Care of alcohol and other drugs in the Federal District of Brazil. 408 medical records of people aged 60 years or over were evaluated, and it is possible to know that most of them were males (85.3%), with a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.16), 60 and 84 years and a mean age of 64 years (DP ± 4.42); 88.2% have some family ties, are married and have children, with relatives living in masonry housing. The educational level of drug users was considered low with more emphasis on those who had elementary education being the majority retired or unemployed. Regarding the street situation, there was no significance (p = 0.084), and the women (OR = 2.98) had few chances of street situations compared to men (OR = 0.89). As for substance consumption, the highest quantity of drug consumption bids in relation to the number of illicit. It did not present significant statistical value, and there is a greater probability of consumption/abuse of legal and/or illicit drugs for both sexes (OR = 0.96) for men and (OR = 1.32) for women. In relation to the use of multiple drugs, there was no significant difference between the sexes, (OR = 1.1) male sex and (OR = 0.74) female sex. Based on the results found in the present study, it was concluded that alcohol consumption is the main agent that causes vulnerability in the elderly and predisposes the latter to the consumption of other associated drugs.

Keywords: centers of attention psychosocial alcohol and drugs, elderly, mental disorder due to drug use, street situations

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Authors: P. S. Thein, S. Pramumijoyo, K. S. Brotopuspito, J. Kiyono, W. Wilopo, A. Furukawa, A. Setianto

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In this study, we estimated the seismic ground motion parameters based on microtremor measurements at Palu City. Several earthquakes have struck along the Palu-Koro Fault during recent years. The USGS epicenter, magnitude Mw 6.3 event that occurred on January 23, 2005 caused several casualties. We conducted a microtremor survey to estimate the strong ground motion distribution during the earthquake. From this survey we produced a map of the peak ground acceleration, velocity, seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain maps in Palu City. We performed single observations of microtremor at 151 sites in Palu City. We also conducted 8-site microtremors array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Palu City. From the array observations, Palu City corresponds to relatively soil condition with Vs ≤ 300 m/s, the predominant periods due to horizontal vertical ratios (HVSRs) are in the range of 0.4 to 1.8 s and the frequency are in the range of 0.7 to 3.3 Hz. Strong ground motions of the Palu area were predicted based on the empirical stochastic green’s function method. Peak ground acceleration and velocity becomes more than 400 gal and 30 kine in some areas, which causes severe damage for buildings in high probability. Microtremor survey results showed that in hilly areas had low seismic vulnerability index and ground shear strain, whereas in coastal alluvium was composed of material having a high seismic vulnerability and ground shear strain indication.

Keywords: Palu-Koro fault, microtremor, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: K. Swapna, Sk. Mahamuda, Ch, Annapurna, A. Srinivasa Rao, G. Vijaya Prakash

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Samarium ions doped Alkali Fluoro Tungsten Tellurite (AFTT) Glasses have been prepared by using the melt quenching technique and characterized through various spectroscopic techniques such as optical absorption, excitation, emission and decay spectral studies. From the measured absorption spectra of Sm3+ ions in AFTT glasses, the optical band gap and Urbach energies have been evaluated. The spectroscopic parameters such as oscillator strengths (f), Judd-Ofelt (J-O) intensity parameters (Ωλ), spontaneous emission probability (AR), branching ratios (βR) and radiative lifetimes (τR) of various excited levels have been determined from the absorption spectrum by using J-O analysis. A strong luminescence in the reddish-orange spectral region has been observed for all the Sm3+ ions doped AFTT glasses. It consisting four emission transitions occurring from the 4G5/2metastable state to the lower lying states 6H5/2, 6H7/2, 6H9/2 and 6H11/2 upon exciting the sample with a 478 nm line of an argon ion laser. The stimulated emission cross-sections (σe) and branching ratios (βmeas) were estimated from the emission spectra for all emission transitions. Correlation of the radiative lifetime with the experimental lifetime measured from the day curves allows us to measure the quantum efficiency of the prepared glasses. In order to know the colour emission of the prepared glasses under near UV excitation, the emission intensities were analyzed using CIE 1931 colour chromaticity diagram. The aforementioned spectral studies carried out on Sm3+ ions doped AFTT glasses allowed us to conclude that, these glasses are best suited for orange-red visible lasers.

Keywords: fluoro tungsten tellurite glasses, judd-ofelt intensity parameters, lifetime, stimulated emission cross-section

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Authors: Neda Zamani

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The present study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of training courses and their limitations using the CIPP model. The investigations were done on Isfahan Refinery as a case study. From a purpose point of view, the present paper is included among applied research and from a data gathering point of view, it is included among descriptive research of the field type survey. The population of the study included participants in training courses, their supervisors and experts of the training department. Probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) was used as the sampling method. The sample size for participants in training courses included 195 individuals, 30 supervisors and 11 individuals from the training experts’ group. To collect data, a questionnaire designed by the researcher and a semi-structured interview was used. The content validity of the data was confirmed by training management experts and the reliability was calculated through 0.92 Cronbach’s alpha. To analyze the data in descriptive statistics aspect (tables, frequency, frequency percentage and mean) were applied, and inferential statistics (Mann Whitney and Wilcoxon tests, Kruskal-Wallis test to determine the significance of the opinion of the groups) have been applied. Results of the study indicated that all groups, i.e., participants, supervisors and training experts, absolutely believe in the importance of training courses; however, participants in training courses regard content, teacher, atmosphere and facilities, training process, managing process and product as to be in a relatively appropriate level. The supervisors also regard output to be at a relatively appropriate level, but training experts regard content, teacher and managing processes as to be in an appropriate and higher than average level.

Keywords: training courses, limitations of training effectiveness, CIPP model, Isfahan oil refinery company

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Authors: Maria Sonto Maputle, Rhulani C. Shihundla, Rachel T. Lebese

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Background: Patients’ information must be complete and accurately documented in order to foster quality and continuity of care. The multidisciplinary health care members use patients’ documentation to communicate about health status, preventive health services, treatment, planning and delivery of care. The purpose of this study was to determine the practice of nursing documentation of patients’ information at selected Primary Health Care (PHC) facilities in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methods: The research approach adopted was qualitative while exploratory and descriptive design was used. The study was conducted at selected PHC facilities. Population included twelve professional nurses. Non-probability purposive sampling method was used to sample professional nurses who were willing to participate in the study. The criteria included participants’ whose daily work and activities, involved creating, keeping and updating nursing documentation of patients’ information. Qualitative data collection was through unstructured in-depth interviews until no new information emerged. Data were analysed through open–coding of, Tesch’s eight steps method. Results: Following data analysis, it was found that professional nurses’ had knowledge deficit related to insufficient training on updates and rendering multiple services daily had negative impact on accurate documentation of patients’ information. Conclusion: The study recommended standardization of registers, books and forms used at PHC facilities, and reorganization of PHC services into open day system.

Keywords: documentation, knowledge, patient care, patient’s information, training

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Authors: Ejaz Ali M. Phil

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Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are playing a vital role in effective management of business functions in large and complex organizations. Human Resource Information System (HRIS) is a core module of ERP, providing concrete solutions to implement Human Resource Management (HRM) Practices in an innovative and efficient manner. Over the last decade, there has been considerable increase in the studies on HRIS. Nevertheless, previous studies relatively lacked to examine the moderating role of HRIS in performing HRM practices that may affect the firms’ performance. The current study was carried out to examine the impact of HRM practices (training, performance appraisal) on perceived organizational performance, with moderating role of HRIS, where the system is in place. The study based on Resource Based View (RBV) and Ability Motivation Opportunity (AMO) Theories, advocating that strengthening of human capital enables an organization to achieve and sustain competitive advantage which leads to improved organizational performance. Data were collected through structured questionnaire based upon adopted instruments after establishing reliability and validity. The structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to assess the model fitness, hypotheses testing and to establish validity of the instruments through Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). A total 220 employees of 25 firms in corporate sector were sampled through non-probability sampling technique. Path analysis revealing that HRM practices and HRIS have significant positive impact on organizational performance. The results further showed that the HRIS moderated the relationships between training, performance appraisal and organizational performance. The interpretation of the findings and limitations, theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Keywords: enterprise resource planning, human resource, information system, human capital

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

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Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

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Authors: Serges Mendomo Meye, Li Guowei, Shen Zhenzhong

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Earthquake is one of the main loads threatening dam safety. Once the dam is damaged, it will bring huge losses of life and property to the country and people. Therefore, it is very important to research the seismic safety of the dam. Due to the complex foundation conditions, high fortification intensity, and high scientific and technological content, it is necessary to adopt reasonable methods to evaluate the seismic safety performance of concrete arch dams built and under construction in strong earthquake areas. Structural seismic vulnerability analysis can predict the probability of structural failure at all levels under different intensity earthquakes, which can provide a scientific basis for reasonable seismic safety evaluation and decision-making. In this paper, the response surface method (RSM) is applied to the seismic vulnerability analysis of arch dams, which improves the efficiency of vulnerability analysis. Based on the central composite test design method, the material-seismic intensity samples are established. The response surface model (RSM) with arch crown displacement as performance index is obtained by finite element (FE) calculation of the samples, and then the accuracy of the response surface model (RSM) is verified. To obtain the seismic vulnerability curves, the seismic intensity measure ??(?1) is chosen to be 0.1~1.2g, with an interval of 0.1g and a total of 12 intensity levels. For each seismic intensity level, the arch crown displacement corresponding to 100 sets of different material samples can be calculated by algebraic operation of the response surface model (RSM), which avoids 1200 times of nonlinear dynamic calculation of arch dam; thus, the efficiency of vulnerability analysis is improved greatly.

Keywords: high concrete arch dam, performance index, response surface method, seismic vulnerability analysis, vector-valued intensity measure

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Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

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Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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Authors: Mostafa Firoozabadi, Alireza Foroughi Nematollahi

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Semi autogenous mills are designed for grinding or primary crushed ore, and are the most widely used in concentrators globally. Any defect occurrence in semi autogenous mills can stop the production line. A Gearbox is a significant part of a rotating machine or a mill, so, the gearbox monitoring is a necessary process to prevent the unwanted defects. When a defect happens in a gearbox bearing, this defect can be transferred to the other parts of the equipment like inner ring, outer ring, balls, and the bearing cage. Vibration analysis is one of the most effective and common ways to detect the bearing defects in the mills. Vibration signal in a mill can be made by different parts of the mill including electromotor, pinion girth gear, different rolling bearings, and tire. When a vibration signal, made by the aforementioned parts, is added to the gearbox vibration spectrum, an accurate and on time defect detection in the gearbox will be difficult. In this paper, a new method is proposed to detect the gearbox bearing defects in the semi autogenous mill on time and accurately, using the vibration signal analysis method. In this method, if the vibration values are increased in the vibration curve, the probability of defect occurrence is investigated by comparing the equipment vibration values and the standard ones. Then, all vibration frequencies are extracted from the vibration signal and the equipment defect is detected using the vibration spectrum curve. This method is implemented on the semi autogenous mills in the Golgohar mining and industrial company in Iran. The results show that the proposed method can detect the bearing looseness on time and accurately. After defect detection, the bearing is opened before the equipment failure and the predictive maintenance actions are implemented on it.

Keywords: condition monitoring, gearbox defects, predictive maintenance, vibration analysis

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Authors: Ronald Collins, Jonathon Coleman, Joel Dasari, George Holt, Carl Metelko, Matthew Murdoch, Alexander Morgan, Yan-Jie Schnellbach, Robert Mills, Gareth Edwards, Alexander Roberts

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At the Wylfa Magnox Power Plant between 2014–2016, the VIDARR prototype anti-neutrino detector was deployed. It is comprised of extruded plastic scintillating bars measuring 4 cm × 1 cm × 152 cm and utilised wavelength shifting fibres (WLS) and multi-pixel photon counters (MPPCs) to detect and quantify radiation. During deployment, it took cosmic muon data in accidental coincidence with the anti-neutrino measurements with the power plant site buildings obscuring the muon sky. Cosmic muons have a significantly higher probability of being attenuated and/or absorbed by denser objects, and so one-sided cosmic muon tomography was utilised to image the reactor site buildings. In order to achieve clear building outlines, a control data set was taken at the University of Liverpool from 2016 – 2018, which had minimal occlusion of the cosmic muon flux by dense objects. By taking the ratio of these two data sets and using GEANT4 simulations, it is possible to perform a one-sided cosmic muon tomography analysis. This analysis can be used to discern specific buildings, building heights, and features at the Wylfa reactor site, including the reactor core/reactor core shielding using ∼ 3 hours worth of cosmic-ray detector live time. This result demonstrates the feasibility of using cosmic muon analysis to determine a segmented detector’s location with respect to surrounding buildings, assisted by aerial photography or satellite imagery.

Keywords: anti-neutrino, GEANT4, muon, tomography, occlusion

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Authors: Maryam Nazari, Atefeh Ghanbari, Saghar Noorinia

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Obesity, as an abnormal or excessive accumulation of fat, is caused by genetic, behavioral and environmental factors. Recently, obesity surgeries, such as bariatric surgery, as the last measure to control obesity, have attracted experts and society, especially women, attention, so knowing the possible complications of this major surgery and their control in reproductive age is of particular importance due to its effects on pregnancy outcomes. Bariatric surgery reduces the risk of diabetes and high blood pressure associated with pregnancy, premature birth, macrosomia, stillbirth and dumping syndrome. Although in the first months after surgery, nausea and vomiting caused by changes in intra-abdominal pressure are associated with an increased risk of malabsorption of micronutrients such as folic acid, iron, vitamin B1, D, calcium, selenium and phosphorus and finally, fetal growth disorder. Moreover, serum levels of micronutrients such as vitamin D, calcium, and iron in mothers who used to have bariatric surgery and their babies have been shown to be lower than in mothers without a history of bariatric surgery. Moreover, vitamin A deficiency is shown to be more widespread in pregnancies after bariatric surgery, which leads to visual problems in newborns and premature delivery. However, complications such as the duration of hospitalization of newborns in the NICU, disease rate in the first 28 days of life and congenital anomalies are not significantly different in babies born to mothers undergoing bariatric surgery compared to the control group. In spite of the vast advantages following obesity surgeries, due to the catabolic conditions and severe weight loss followed by such major intervention and the probability of nutrients malnutrition in a pregnant woman and her baby, after having surgery, at least 12 to 18 months should be considered to get pregnant as a recovery period. In addition, taking essential supplements before and at least 6 months after this approach is recommended.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, pregnancy, malnutrition, vitamin and mineral deficiency

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Authors: Muhammad Shahbaz Akhtar

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Background; Tuberculosis remains a significant public health challenge in Pakistan, with high incidence and prevalence rates, particularly among vulnerable populations. Addressing the TB burden requires comprehensive efforts to improve healthcare infrastructure, increase access to quality diagnosis and treatment services, raise public awareness, and address socioeconomic determinants of health. Objective; To assess the knowledge and practices of healthcare workers and patients regarding prevention of tuberculosis at a tertiary care hospital of Southern Punjab.Material and methods; Data will be collected from 135 healthcare workers and 135 TB patients visiting Nishtar Hospital, Multan in this descriptive cross – sectional study using non – probability consecutive sampling technique. Proper approval will be taken from Hospital authorities to conduct this study. Study participants will be recruited after taking informed written consent, describing them objectives of this study. The study participants will be ensured of their confidentiality of the data and interviewed to assess their knowledge and practices regarding prevention of tuberculosis. Data Analysis Procedure; Data will be entered and analyzed by using SPSS version 25 to calculated mean and standard deviation for the numerical data such as age, duration of disease and duration of experience. Frequencies and percentages will be calculated for gender, age groups, level of knowledge, qualification, designation and practices. Impact of confounders like gender, age groups, duration of experience, disease duration, years of experience and designation will be assessed by stratification. Post stratification chi – square test will be applied at 0.05 level of significance at 95 % CI.

Keywords: tuberculosis, data analysis, HIV/AIDS, preventable

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Authors: Shahram Nowrouzieh, Abbas Rezaei Asl, Mohamad Ali Jafari

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Cotton, as a strategic crop, plays an important role in providing human food and clothing need, because of its oil, protein, and fiber. Iran has been one of the largest cotton producers in the world in the past, but unfortunately, for economic reasons, its production is reduced now. One of the ways to reduce the cost of cotton production is to expand the mechanization of cotton harvesting. Iranian farmers do not accept the function of cotton harvesters. One reason for this lack of acceptance of cotton harvesting machines is the number of field losses on these machines. So, the majority of cotton fields are harvested by hand. Although the correct setting of the harvesting machine is very important in the cotton losses, the morphological properties of the cotton plant also affect the performance of cotton harvesters. In this study, the effect of some cotton morphological properties such as the height of the cotton plant, number, and length of sympodial and monopodial branches, boll dimensions, boll weight, number of carpels and bracts angle were evaluated on the performance of cotton picker. In this research, the efficiency of John Deere 9920 spindle Cotton picker is investigated on five different Iranian cotton cultivars. The results indicate that there was a significant difference between the five cultivars in terms of machine harvest efficiency. Golestan cultivar showed the best cotton harvester performance with an average of 87.6% of total harvestable seed cotton and Khorshid cultivar had the least cotton harvester performance. The principal component analysis showed that, at 50.76% probability, the cotton picker efficiency is affected by the bracts angle positively and by boll dimensions, the number of carpels and the height of cotton plants negatively. The seed cotton remains (in the plant and on the ground) after harvester in PCA scatter plot were in the same zone with boll dimensions and several carpels.

Keywords: cotton, bract, harvester, carpel

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Authors: Xiaoxian Zhang

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Guidelines of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and food safety assessment (FSA) used nowadays, based on an S-shaped threshold dose-response curve (SDR), fail to consider hormesis, a reproducible biphasic dose-response model represented as a J-shaped or an inverted U-shaped curve, that occurs in the real-life environment across multitudinous compounds on cells, organisms, populations, and even the ecosystem. Specifically, in SDR-based ERA and FSA practice, predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) is calculated separately for individual substances from no observed effect concentration (NOEC, usually equivalent to 10% effect concentration (EC10) of a contaminant or food condiment) over an assessment coefficient that is bigger than 1. Experienced researchers doubted that hormesis in the real-life environment might lead to a waste of limited human and material resources in ERA and FSA practice, but related data are scarce. In this study, hormetic effects on bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri (A. f) induced by sulfachloropyridazine (SCP) under 40 conditions to simulate the real-life scenario were investigated, and hormetic effects on growth of human MCF-7 cells caused by brown sugar and mascavado sugar were found likewise. After comparison of related parameters, it has for the first time been proved that there is a 50% probability for safe concentration (SC) of contaminants and food condiments to fall within the hormetic-stimulatory range (HSR) or left to HSR, revealing the unreliability of traditional parameters in standardized (eco)toxicological studies, and supporting qualitatively and quantitatively the over-strictness of ERA and FSA resulted from misuse of SDR. This study provides a novel perspective for ERA and FSA practitioners that hormesis should dominate and conditions where SDR works should only be singled out on a specific basis.

Keywords: dose-response relationship, food safety, ecological risk assessment, hormesis

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