Search results for: fundamental risks

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Zsuzsanna Fejes

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The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the legal history of constitutionalism in Hungary, in focus of the democratic transitions in 1989-1990, describing the historical and political background of the changes and presenting the main and most important features of the new democracy, and institutional and legal orders. In Hungary the evolved political, economic and moral crisis prior to the constitutional years 2010-11 had been such a constitutional moment, which led to an opportune and unavoidable change at the same time. The Hungarian constitutional power intended to adopt a new constitution, which was competent to create a common constitutional identity and to express a national unity. The Hungarian Parliament on 18th April 2011 passed the New Fundamental Law. The new Fundamental Law rich in national values meant a new challenge for the academics, lawyers, and political scientists. Not only the classical political science, but also the constitutional law and theory have to struggle with the interpretation of the new declarations about national constitutional values in the Fundamental Law. The main features and structure of the new Fundamental Law will be analysed, and given a detailed interpretation of the Preamble as a declaration of constitutional values. During the examination of the Preamble shall be cleared up the components of Hungarian statehood and national unity, individual and common human rights, the practical and theoretical demand on national sovereignty, and the content and possibilities for the interpretation of the achievements of the historical Constitution. These scopes of problems will be presented during the examination of the text of National Avowal, as a preamble of the Fundamental Law. It is examined whether the Fundamental Law itself could be suitable and sufficient means to citizens of Hungary to express the ideas therein as their own, it will be analysed how could the national and European common traditions, values and principles stated in the Fundamental Law mean maintenance in Hungary’s participation in the European integration.

Keywords: common constitutional values, constitutionalism, national identity, national sovereignty, national unity, statehood

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

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Authors: Julinda Keçi

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In many countries, governments have been promoting the involvement of private sector entities to enter into long-term agreements for the development and delivery of large infrastructure projects, with a focus on overcoming the limitations upon public fund of the traditional approach. The involvement of private sector through public-private partnerships (PPP) brings in new capital investments, value for money and additional risks to handle. Worldwide research studies have shown that an objective, systematic, reliable and user-oriented risk assessment process and an optimal allocation mechanism among different stakeholders is crucial to the successful completion. In this framework this paper, which is the first stage of a research study, aims to identify the main risks for the delivery of PPP projects. A review of cross-countries research projects and case studies was performed to map the key risks affecting PPP infrastructure delivery. The matrix of mapping offers a summary of the frequency of factors, clustered in eleven categories: Construction, Design, Economic, Legal, Market, Natural, Operation, Political, Project finance, Project selection and Relationship. Results will highlight the most critical risk factors, and will hopefully assist the project managers in directing the managerial attention in the further stages of risk allocation.

Keywords: construction, infrastructure, public private partnerships, risks

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Authors: Ragi Poyyara, V. Vivek, Ashish Khaparde

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The Product Development Process (PDP) in the technology group plays a very important role in the launch of any product. While a manufacturing process encourages the use of certain measures to reduce Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) risks on the shop floor, the PDP concentrates on the use of Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing (GD&T) to develop a flawless design. Furthermore, PDP distributes and coordinates activities between different departments such as marketing, purchasing, and manufacturing. However, it is seldom realized that PDP makes a significant contribution to developing a product that reduces HSE risks by encouraging the Technology group to use effective GD&T. The GD&T is a precise communication tool that uses a set of symbols, rules, and definitions to mathematically define parts to be manufactured. It is a quality assurance method widely used in the oil and gas sector. Traditionally it is used to ensure the interchangeability of a part without affecting its form, fit, and function. Parts that do not meet these requirements are rejected during quality audits. This paper discusses how the Technology group integrates this quality assurance tool into the PDP and how the tool plays a major role in helping the HSE department in its goal towards eliminating HSE incidents. The PDP involves a thorough risk assessment and establishes a method to address those risks during the design stage. An illustration shows how GD&T helped reduce safety risks by ergonomically improving assembling operations. A brief discussion explains how tolerances provided on a part help prevent finger injury. This tool has equipped Technology to produce fixtures, which are used daily in operations as well as manufacturing. By applying GD&T to create good fits, HSE risks are mitigated for operating personnel. Both customers and service providers benefit from reduced safety risks.

Keywords: HSE risks, product development process, geometric dimensioning and tolerances, mechanical engineering

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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The elastic period has a primary role in the seismic assessment of buildings. Reliable calculations and/or estimates of the fundamental frequency of a building and its site are essential during analysis and design process. Various code formulas based on empirical data are generally used to estimate the fundamental frequency of a structure. For existing structures, in addition to code formulas and available analytical tools such as modal analyses, various methods of testing including ambient and forced vibration testing procedures may be used to determine dynamic characteristics. In this study, the dynamic properties of the 32 buildings located in the Madinah of Saudi Arabia were identified using ambient motions recorded at several, spatially-distributed locations within each building. Ambient vibration measurements of buildings have been analyzed and the fundamental longitudinal and transverse periods for all tested buildings are presented. The fundamental mode of vibration has been compared in plots with codes formulae (Saudi Building Code, EC8, and UBC1997). The results indicate that measured periods of existing buildings are shorter than that given by most empirical code formulas. Recommendations are given based on the common design and construction practice in Madinah city.

Keywords: ambient vibration, fundamental period, RC buildings, infill walls

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Authors: Spanova Yerkezhan, Amantay Ayan, Alimzhanova Laura

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This article discusses the concept of rebranding and its relationship to cybersecurity. Rebranding is the process of changing the appearance and image of a company or organization in order to appeal to new customers or change the perception of a company. It can be a powerful tool for businesses looking to renew their reputation or expand into new markets. In today's digital age, companies increasingly rely on technology and the internet to conduct business; rebranding can also present significant cybersecurity risks. This is because a rebranding effort can create new vulnerabilities for companies, particularly in terms of their online presence. This article explores the potential hazards associated with rebranding and provides recommendations for mitigating those risks. It also highlights the importance of considering cybersecurity in the rebranding process and how it can be integrated into the overall strategy for a successful and secure rebranding.

Keywords: rebranding, cybersecurity, cyberattack, logo, vulnerability

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Authors: Emma Carr, Bilal Aslam-Pervez, David Laraway

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Litigation against surgeons and hospitals continues to increase in Western countries. While verbal consent is all that is required legally, it has for a long time been considered that written consent offers proof of discussion and interaction between the surgeon and the patient. Inadequate consenting of patients continues in the United Kingdom leaving surgeons and Health Trusts open to litigation. We present a standardised consent form which improves patient autonomy and engagement. The General Medical Council recommends that all material risks relevant to the patient are discussed and recorded prior to undergoing surgery, regardless of how likely they are to occur. Current literature was reviewed to evaluate complications associated with surgical management of mandible fractures. Analysis of risks on 52 consent forms were analysed within the Glasgow OMFS department, leading to a procedure-specific form being designed and implemented. This audit showed that the documentation of risks on consent forms was extremely variable- with uncommon risks not being recorded. Interestingly, not a single consent form was found which highlighted all the risks associated with mandible fractures. Our re-audit data confirms 100% of risks being discussed when a procedure specific form is utilised. Our hope, is to introduce further forms for inclusion on the BAOMS website and peripheral distribution. The forms are quick and easy to print and leave more time for consultation with the patient. Whilst we are under no illusion that the forms may not decrease the incidence of intended litigation, we feel confident that they will decrease the chances of it being successful.

Keywords: consent, litigation, mandible fracture, surgery

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Authors: Schadrack Mwizerwa

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The characterization and prediction of landslides are crucial for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. This research aims to develop a probabilistic framework for analyzing excavation-induced landslides, which is fundamental for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. The study uses Hermite polynomial chaos, a non-stationary random process, to analyze the stability of a slope and characterize the failure probability of a real landslide induced by highway construction excavation. The correlation within the data is captured using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion theory, and the finite element method is used to analyze the slope's stability. The research contributes to the field of landslide characterization by employing advanced random field approaches, providing valuable insights into the complex nature of landslide behavior and the effectiveness of advanced probabilistic models for risk assessment and management. The data collected from the Baiyuzui landslide, induced by highway construction, is used as an illustrative example. The findings highlight the importance of considering the probabilistic nature of landslides and provide valuable insights into the complex behavior of such hazards.

Keywords: Hermite polynomial chaos, Karhunen-Loeve, slope stability, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Abdelrhman Elagez, Rolla Monib

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This empirical study investigates the observed risks associated with adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies in the construction industry and proposes potential mitigation strategies. While AI has transformed several industries, the construction industry is slowly adopting advanced technologies like AI, introducing new risks that lack critical analysis in the current literature. A comprehensive literature review identified a research gap, highlighting the lack of critical analysis of risks and the need for a framework to measure and mitigate the risks of AI implementation in the construction industry. Consequently, an online survey was conducted with 24 project managers and construction professionals, possessing experience ranging from 1 to 30 years (with an average of 6.38 years), to gather industry perspectives and concerns relating to AI integration. The survey results yielded several significant findings. Firstly, respondents exhibited a moderate level of familiarity (66.67%) with AI technologies, while the industry's readiness for AI deployment and current usage rates remained low at 2.72 out of 5. Secondly, the top-ranked barriers to AI adoption were identified as lack of awareness, insufficient knowledge and skills, data quality concerns, high implementation costs, absence of prior case studies, and the uncertainty of outcomes. Thirdly, the most significant risks associated with AI use in construction were perceived to be a lack of human control (decision-making), accountability, algorithm bias, data security/privacy, and lack of legislation and regulations. Additionally, the participants acknowledged the value of factors such as education, training, organizational support, and communication in facilitating AI integration within the industry. These findings emphasize the necessity for tailored risk assessment frameworks, guidelines, and governance principles to address the identified risks and promote the responsible adoption of AI technologies in the construction sector.

Keywords: risk management, construction, artificial intelligence, technology

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Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

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The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time

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Authors: Onyekachi Onwudike, Russell Lock, Iain Phillips

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The variability that exists across governments, her departments and the provisioning of services has been areas of concern in the E-Government domain. There is a need for reuse and integration across government departments which are accompanied by varying degrees of risks and threats. There is also the need for assessment, prevention, preparation, response and recovery when dealing with these risks or threats. The ability of a government to cope with the emerging changes that occur within it is known as resilience. In order to forge ahead with concerted efforts to manage reuse and integration induced risks or threats to governments, the ambiguities contained within resilience must be addressed. Enhancing resilience in the E-Government domain is synonymous with reducing risks governments face with provisioning of services as well as reuse of components across departments. Therefore, it can be said that resilience is responsible for the reduction in government’s vulnerability to changes. In this paper, we present the use of the ontology to measure the resilience of governments. This ontology is made up of a well-defined construct for the taxonomy of resilience. A specific class known as ‘Resilience Requirements’ is added to the ontology. This class embraces the concept of resilience into the E-Government domain ontology. Considering that the E-Government domain is a highly complex one made up of different departments offering different services, the reliability and resilience of the E-Government domain have become more complex and critical to understand. We present questions that can help a government access how prepared they are in the face of risks and what steps can be taken to recover from them. These questions can be asked with the use of queries. The ontology focuses on developing a case study section that is used to explore ways in which government departments can become resilient to the different kinds of risks and threats they may face. A collection of resilience tools and resources have been developed in our ontology to encourage governments to take steps to prepare for emergencies and risks that a government may face with the integration of departments and reuse of components across government departments. To achieve this, the ontology has been extended by rules. We present two tools for understanding resilience in the E-Government domain as a risk analysis target and the output of these tools when applied to resilience in the E-Government domain. We introduce the classification of resilience using the defined taxonomy and modelling of existent relationships based on the defined taxonomy. The ontology is constructed on formal theory and it provides a semantic reference framework for the concept of resilience. Key terms which fall under the purview of resilience with respect to E-Governments are defined. Terms are made explicit and the relationships that exist between risks and resilience are made explicit. The overall aim of the ontology is to use it within standards that would be followed by all governments for government-based resilience measures.

Keywords: E-Government, Ontology, Relationships, Resilience, Risks, Threats

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: G. A. Gevorgyan, K. A. Ghazaryan, T. H. Derdzyan

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The heavy metal pollution of the soils around the mining area near Shamlugh town and related risks to human health were assessed. The investigations showed that the soils were polluted with heavy metals that can be ranked by anthropogenic pollution degree as follows: Cu>Pb>As>Co>Ni>Zn. The main sources of the anthropogenic metal pollution of the soils were the copper mining area near Shamlugh town, the Chochkan tailings storage facility and the trucks transferring are from the mining area. Copper pollution degree in some observation sites was unallowable for agricultural production. The total non-carcinogenic chronic hazard index (THI) values in some places, including observation sites in Shamlugh town, were above the safe level (THI<1) for children living in this territory. Although the highest heavy metal enrichment degree in the soils was registered in case of copper, the highest health risks to humans especially children were posed by cobalt which is explained by the fact that heavy metals have different toxicity levels and penetration characteristics.

Keywords: Armenia, copper mine, heavy metal pollution of soil, health risks

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Kaarour Abdelkrim, Ouardi Okkacha, Meskine Mohamed

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In this study, the υ_4 fundamental band of 12CD4 molecule has been studied by infrared spectroscopy with high resolution. Using XTDS and SPEVIEW software and the tensor formalism developed by ICB (laboratoire interdisciplinaire de Bourgogne) to several lines have been assigned and fitted with a standard deviation acceptable. This analysis allowed us to calculate several parameters of the molecule 12 CD4.

Keywords: XTDS, SPEVIEW, tetrahedral tensorial formalism, rovibrational band

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Authors: Laura Ramona Nae

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The issue of risks faced by companies providing tourist and hotel services in the HoReCa field, related to the goods belonging to consumer tourists left in hotel storage, has acquired a new dimension in the context of the economic and geo-political influences that have recently intervened at the global level. Thus, hoteliers and not only had to create contractual mechanisms regarding the risks and to protect the businesses in this field of activity. This situation has led to a reassessment of the importance of insurance, in particular with regard to hotel liability insurance-premises liability, safety, and security of goods. Interpretation of clauses in contracts concluded between hoteliers and tourists consuming hotel services and products, all the more so in the current pandemic context of Covid 19, stressed the increase in the number of disputes generated by them. This article presents a general picture of the significance of the risks related to the activity carried out in the hospitality industry, tourism, respectively within the HoReCa field. The study mainly marks the specificities of the hotel deposit contract, as well as the related insurance specific to the field, as a way to cover these risks. The article also refers to alternative methods of out-of-court settlement of disputes (ADR) in the HoReCa domain, generally used in both Romania and the European Union.

Keywords: consumer tourist, disputes and ADR methods, deposit contract, hotel warehouse and hotelier insurance, hotel services and tourist products, HoReCa

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Authors: Farhad Ghasemi

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Along with transforming the international system into a complex and chaotic system, the fundamental question arises: how can deterrence be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically in this system model? The deterrence system is much more complex today than it was seven decades ago. This article suggests that the perception of deterrence as a linear system is a fundamental mistake because it does not consider the new dynamics of the international system, including network power dynamics. The author aims to improve this point by focusing on complexity and chaos theories, especially their nonlinearity and cascading failure principles. This article proposes that the perception of deterrence as a linear system is a fundamental mistake, as the new dynamics of the surrounding international system do not take into account. The author recognizes deterrence as a nonlinear system and introduces it as a concept in strategic studies.

Keywords: complexity, international system, deterrence, linear deterrence, nonlinear deterrence

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Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

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We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

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Authors: Ogundele Lasun Tunde, Ayeku Oluwagbemiga Patrick

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Heavy metals are released into the sediments in aquatic environment from both natural and anthropogenic sources and they are considered as worldwide issue due to their deleterious ecological risks and food chain disruption. In this study, sediments samples were collected at three major sites (Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro) along Ondo coastal area using VanVeen grab sampler. The concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were determined by employing Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). The combined concentrations data were subjected to Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor approach for source identification and apportionment. The probable risks that might be posed by heavy metals in the sediment were estimated by potential and integrated ecological risks indices. Among the measured heavy metals, Fe had the average concentrations of 20.38 ± 2.86, 23.56 ± 4.16 and 25.32 ± 4.83 lg/g at Abereke, Awoye and Ayetoro sites, respectively. The PMF resulted in identification of four sources of heavy metals in the sediments. The resolved sources and their percentage contributions were oil exploration (39%), industrial waste/sludge (35%), detrital process (18%) and Mn-sources (8%). Oil exploration activities and industrial wastes are the major sources that contribute heavy metals into the coastal sediments. The major pollutants that posed ecological risks to the local aquatic ecosystem are As, Pb, Cr and Cd (40 B Ei ≤ 80) classifying the sites as moderate risk. The integrate risks values of Awoye, Abereke and Ayetoro are 231.2, 234.0 and 236.4, respectively suggesting that the study areas had a moderate ecological risk. The study showed the suitability of PMF receptor model for source identification of heavy metals in the sediments. Also, the intensive anthropogenic activities and natural sources could largely discharge heavy metals into the study area, which may increase the heavy metal contents of the sediments and further contribute to the associated ecological risk, thus affecting the local aquatic ecosystem.

Keywords: positive matrix factorization, sediments, heavy metals, sources, ecological risks

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Masa Popovac, Philip Fine

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Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have altered our social environments, and young people in particular have immersed themselves in the digital age. Despite countless benefits, younger ICT users are being exposed to various online risks such as contact with strangers, viewing of risky content, sending or receiving sexually themed images or comments (i.e. ‘sexting’) as well as cyber bullying. Parents may not be fully aware of the online spaces their children inhabit and often struggle to implement effective mediation strategies. This quantitative study explored (i) three types of online risks (contact risks, content risks and conduct risks), (ii) cyber bullying victimization and perpetration, and (iii) parental mediation among a sample of 689 South African adolescents aged between 12-17 years. Survey data was also collected for 227 of their parents relating to their perceptions of their child’s online experiences. A comparison between adolescent behaviors and parental perceptions was examined on the three variables in the study. Findings reveal various online risk taking behaviors. In terms of contact risks, 56% of adolescents reported having contact with at least one online stranger, with many meeting these strangers in person. Content risks included exposure to harmful information such as websites promoting extreme diets or self-harm as well as inappropriate content: 84% of adolescents had seen violent content and 75% had seen sexual content online. Almost 60% of adolescents engaged in conduct risks such as sexting. Eight online victimization behaviors were examined in the study and 79% of adolescents had at least one of these negative experiences, with a third (34%) defining this experience as cyber bullying. A strong connection between victimization and perpetration was found, with 63% of adolescents being both a victim and perpetrator. Very little parental mediation of ICT use was reported. Inferential statistics revealed that parents consistently underestimated their child’s online risk taking behaviors as well as their cyber bullying victimization and perpetration. Parents also overestimated mediation strategies in the home. The generational gap in the knowledge and use of ICTs is a barrier to effective parental mediation and online safety, since many negative online experiences by adolescents go undetected and can continue for extended periods of time thereby exacerbating the potential psychological and emotional distress. The study highlights the importance of including parents in online safety efforts.

Keywords: cyber bullying, online risk behaviors, parental mediation, South Africa

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Authors: Marianna Iaroslavska

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ChatGPT is becoming commonplace. However, only a few people think about the legal risks of using Large Language Model in their daily work. The main dilemmas concern the following areas: who owns the copyright to what somebody creates through ChatGPT; what can OpenAI do with the prompt you enter; can you accidentally infringe on another creator's rights through ChatGPT; what about the protection of the data somebody enters into the chat. This paper will present these and other legal risks of using large language models at work using dogmatic methods and case studies. The paper will present a legal analysis of AI risks against the background of European Union law and Polish law. This analysis will answer questions about how to protect data, how to make sure you do not violate copyright, and what is at stake with the AI Act, which recently came into force in the EU. If your work is related to the EU area, and you use AI in your work, this paper will be a real goldmine for you. The copyright law in force in Poland does not protect your rights to a work that is created with the help of AI. So if you start selling such a work, you may face two main problems. First, someone may steal your work, and you will not be entitled to any protection because work created with AI does not have any legal protection. Second, the AI may have created the work by infringing on another person's copyright, so they will be able to claim damages from you. In addition, the EU's current AI Act imposes a number of additional obligations related to the use of large language models. The AI Act divides artificial intelligence into four risk levels and imposes different requirements depending on the level of risk. The EU regulation is aimed primarily at those developing and marketing artificial intelligence systems in the EU market. In addition to the above obstacles, personal data protection comes into play, which is very strictly regulated in the EU. If you violate personal data by entering information into ChatGPT, you will be liable for violations. When using AI within the EU or in cooperation with entities located in the EU, you have to take into account a lot of risks. This paper will highlight such risks and explain how they can be avoided.

Keywords: EU, AI act, copyright, polish law, LLM

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Authors: Yuhong Li, Luyu Mao

Abstract:

Globalization has led to an increasingly interconnected international community and transmitted risks to every corner of the world through the chain of globalization. Security risks arising from international conflicts seem inescapable. Some countries have begun to build their capacity to deal with the globalization of security risks. They establish disembedding security mechanisms that transcend spatial or temporal boundaries and promote security cooperation with countries or regions that are not geographically close. This paper proposes four hypotheses of the phenomenon of "risks and security disembedding" in the post-Cold War international society and uses them to explain The United Kingdom’s behavior in the Bosnian War and the Russo-Ukrainian War. In the Bosnian War, confident in its own security and focused on maintaining European stability, The UK has therefore chosen to be cautious in its use of force in international frameworks such as the EU and to maintain a very limited intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina's affairs. In contrast, the failure of the EU and NATO’s security mechanism in the Russo-Ukrainian war heightened Britain's anxiety, and the volatile international situation led it to show a strong tendency towards security disembedding, choosing to conclude security communities with extra-territorial states. Analysis suggests that security mechanisms are also the starting point of conflict and that countries will rely more on disembedding mechanisms to counteract the global security risks. The current mechanism of security disembedding occurs as a result of the global proliferation of security perceptions as a symbolic token and the recognition of an expert system of security mechanisms formed by states with similar security perceptions.

Keywords: disembedding mechanism, bosnia war, the russian-ukrainian war, british security strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Taeho Park, Ming Zhou, Sangryul Shim

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With the emergence of the global economy, today’s business environment is getting more competitive than ever in the past. And many supply chain (SC) strategies and operations have significantly been altered over the past decade to overcome more complexities and risks imposed onto the global business. First, offshoring and outsourcing are more adopted as operational strategies. Manufacturing continues to move to better locations for enhancing competitiveness. Second, international operations are a challenge to a company’s SC system. Third, the products traded in the SC system are not just physical goods, but also digital goods (e.g., software, e-books, music, video materials). There are three main flows involved in fulfilling the activities in the SC system: physical flow, information flow, and financial flow. An advance of the Internet and electronic communication technologies has enabled companies to perform the flows of SC activities in electronic formats, resulting in the advent of an electronic supply chain management (e-SCM) system. A SC system for digital goods is somewhat different from the supply chain system for physical goods. However, it involves many similar or identical SC activities and flows. For example, like the production of physical goods, many third parties are also involved in producing digital goods for the production of components and even final products. This research aims at identifying process flows of both physical and digital goods in a SC system, and then investigating all risk elements involved in the physical, information, and financial flows during the fulfilment of SC activities. There are many risks inherent in the e-SCM system. Some risks may have severe impact on a company’s business, and some occur frequently but are not detrimental enough to jeopardize a company. Thus, companies should assess the impact and frequency of those risks, and then prioritize them in terms of their severity, frequency, budget, and time in order to be carefully maintained. We found risks involved in the global trading of physical and digital goods in four different categories: environmental risk, strategic risk, technological risk, and operational risk. And then the significance of those risks was investigated through a survey. The survey asked companies about the frequency and severity of the identified risks. They were also asked whether they had faced those risks in the past. Since the characteristics and supply chain flows of digital goods are varying industry by industry and country by country, it is more meaningful and useful to analyze risks by industry and country. To this end, more data in each industry sector and country should be collected, which could be accomplished in the future research.

Keywords: digital goods, e-SCM, risk analysis, supply chain flows

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Authors: Rossouw De Bruin, Sebastiaan H. Von Solms

Abstract:

The state of national security is an evolving concern. Companies, organizations, governments, states and individuals are aware of the security of their information and their assets however, they may not always be aware of the risks present. These risks are not only limited to non-existence of security procedures. Existing security can be severely flawed, especially if there is non-conformance towards policies, practices and procedures. When looking at humanitarian actions, we can easily identify these flaws. Unfortunately, humanitarian aid has to compete with factors from within the states, countries and continents they are working in. Furthermore, as technology improves, so does our connectivity to the internet and the way in which we use the internet. However, there are times when security is overlooked and humanitarian agencies are some of the agencies that do not always take security into consideration. The purpose of this paper will be to introduce the importance of cybersecurity and cybersecurity governance with respect to humanitarian work. We will also introduce and briefly discuss a model that can be used by humanitarian agencies to assess, manage and maintain their cybersecurity efforts.

Keywords: humanities, cybersecurity, cybersecurity governance, maturity, cybersecurity maturity, maturity model

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: S. Zenhari, M. R. Hematiyan, A. Khosravifard, M. R. Feizi

Abstract:

The boundary element method (BEM) and the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) are well-known fundamental solution-based methods for solving a variety of problems. Both methods are boundary-type techniques and can provide accurate results. In comparison to the finite element method (FEM), which is a domain-type method, the BEM and the MFS need less manual effort to solve a problem. The aim of this study is to compare the accuracy and reliability of the BEM and the MFS. This comparison is made for 2D potential and elasticity problems with different boundary and loading conditions. In the comparisons, both convex and concave domains are considered. Both linear and quadratic elements are employed for boundary element analysis of the examples. The discretization of the problem domain in the BEM, i.e., converting the boundary of the problem into boundary elements, is relatively simple; however, in the MFS, obtaining appropriate locations of collocation and source points needs more attention to obtain reliable solutions. The results obtained from the presented examples show that both methods lead to accurate solutions for convex domains, whereas the BEM is more suitable than the MFS for concave domains.

Keywords: boundary element method, method of fundamental solutions, elasticity, potential problem, convex domain, concave domain

Procedia PDF Downloads 90