Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: B. Almassri, F. Almahmoud, R. Francois

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Near surface mounted reinforcement (NSM) technique is one of the promising techniques used nowadays to strengthen reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In the NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves and are bonded to the concrete with epoxy adhesive. This paper studies the non-classical mode of failure ‘the separation of concrete cover’ according to experimental and numerical FE modelling results. Experimental results and numerical modelling results of a 3D finite element (FE) model using the commercial software Abaqus and 2D FE model FEMIX were obtained on two beams, one corroded (25 years of corrosion procedure) and one control (A1CL3-R and A1T-R) were each repaired in bending using NSM CFRP rod and were then tested up to failure. The results showed that the NSM technique increased the overall capacity of control and corroded beams despite a non-classical mode of failure with separation of the concrete cover occurring in the corroded beam due to damage induced by corrosion. Another FE model used external steel stirrups around the repaired corroded beam A1CL3-R which failed with the separation of concrete cover, this model showed a change in the mode of failure form a non-classical mode of failure by the separation of concrete cover to the same mode of failure of the repaired control beam by the crushing of compressed concrete.

Keywords: corrosion, repair, Reinforced Concrete, FEM, CFRP, FEMIX

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Authors: Yiqiang Ni, Xuanlong Chen, Enliang Li, Linting Zheng, Shizheng Yang

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Bipolar ICs are playing an important role in military applications, mainly used in logic gates, such as inverter and NAND gate. The defect of metal break located on the step is one of the main failure mechanisms of bipolar ICs, resulting in open-circuit or functional failure. In this situation, general failure localization methods like optical beam-induced resistance change (OBIRCH) and photon emission microscopy (PEM) might not be fully effective. However, active voltage contrast (AVC) can be used as a voltage probe, which may pinpoint the incorrect potential and thus locate the failure position. Two case studies will be present in this paper on how to implement AVC for failure localization, and the detailed failure mechanism will be discussed.

Keywords: bipolar IC, failure localization, metal break, open failure, voltage contrast

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Authors: M. S. Meon, M. N. Rao, K-U. Schröder

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Mechanical fasteners especially bolting is commonly used in joining carbon-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures due to their good joinability and easy for maintenance characteristics. Since this approach involves with notching, a proper progressive damage model (PDM) need to be implemented and verified to capture existence of damages in the structure. A three dimensional (3D) failure criteria of Puck is established to predict the ultimate bearing failure of such joint. The failure criteria incorporated with degradation scheme are coded based on user subroutine executed in Abaqus. Single lap joint (SLJ) of composite bolted joint is used as target configuration. The results revealed that the PDM adopted here could sufficiently predict the behaviour of composite bolted joint up to ultimate bearing failure. In addition, mesh refinement near holes increased the accuracy of predicted strength as well as computational effort.

Keywords: bearing strength, bolted joint, degradation scheme, progressive damage model

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Authors: I. Sterbova, E. Oberhofnerova, M. Panek, M. Pavelek

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With growing popularity, wood of European larch (Larix decidua, Mill.) is being more often applied into the exterior, usually as facade elements, also without surface treatment. The aim of this work was to compare two laboratory tests of artificial accelerated weathering of wood with two ways of natural weathering in the exterior. To assess changes in selected surface characteristics of larch wood, accelerated weathering methods in the Xenotest and UV chamber were used, both in combination with temperature cycling, for 6 weeks. They were compared with natural weathering results at exposition under 45° and 90° in the exterior for 12 months. The changes of colour, gloss, contact angle of water and also changes in visual characteristics were evaluated. The results of wood surfaces changes after 6 weeks of accelerated weathering in Xenotest are closer to 12 months of natural weathering in the exterior at an angle of 90° compared to the UV chamber testing. The results, especially the colour changes, of the samples exposed at an angle of 45° in the exterior were significantly different. Testing in Xenotest more closely simulates the weathering of façade elements in the exterior compared to the UV chamber testing.

Keywords: larch wood, wooden facade, wood accelerated weathering, weathering methods

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Authors: Lei Chen, Jian Jiao, Tingdi Zhao

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Failures of automotive electric/electronic systems, which are universally considered to be safety-critical and software-intensive, may cause catastrophic accidents. Analysis and verification of failures in these kinds of systems is a big challenge with increasing system complexity. Model-checking is often employed to allow formal verification by ensuring that the system model conforms to specified safety properties. The system-level effects of failures are established, and the effects on system behavior are observed through the formal verification. A hazard analysis technique, called Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis, is capable of identifying design flaws which may cause potential failure hazardous, including software and system design errors and unsafe interactions among multiple system components. This paper provides a concept on how to use model-checking integrated with Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis to perform failure analysis and verification of automotive electric/electronic systems. As a result, safety requirements are optimized, and failure propagation paths are found. Finally, an automotive electric/electronic system case study is used to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the method.

Keywords: failure analysis and verification, model checking, system-theoretic process analysis, automotive electric/electronic system

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Authors: Chul Su Kim, Jun Ku Lee, Won Jun Lee

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The EMU (electric multiple unit) vehicle timer card is a PCB (printed circuit board) for controlling the air-dryer to remove the moisture of the generated air from the air compressor of the braking device. This card is exposed to the lower part of the railway vehicle, so it is greatly affected by the external environment such as temperature and humidity. The main cause of the failure of this timer card is deterioration of soldering area of the PCB surface due to temperature and humidity. Therefore, in the viewpoint of preventive maintenance, it is important to evaluate the reliability of the timer card and predict the replacement cycle to secure the safety of the air braking device is one of the main devices for driving. In this study, the existing and the improved products were evaluated on the reliability through ALT (accelerated life test). In addition, the acceleration factor by the 'Coffin-Manson' equation was obtained, and the remaining lifetime was compared and examined.

Keywords: reliability evaluation, timer card, Printed Circuit Board, Accelerated Life Test

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Chur Hee Lee, Jae in Lee, Minh Chau Diah, Jong Su Yoon, Seung Wan Kim

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This paper deals with Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) analysis about effects of transmission lines failure in power system equipped with Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitance (TCSC) in Korea. The TCSC is firstly applied in Korea to compensate real power in case of 765 kV line faults. Therefore, It is important to analyze with TCSC replica using RTDS. In this test, all systems in Korea, other than those near TCSC, were abbreviated to Thevenin equivalent. The replica was tested in the case of a line failure near the TCSC, a generator failure, and a 765-kV line failure. The effects of conventional operated STATCOM, SVC and TCSC were also analyzed. The test results will be used for the actual TCSC operational impact analysis.

Keywords: failure analysis, power system, RTDS, TCSC

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Authors: B. N. Asare, O. A. Ajigini

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Information systems (IS) are highly important in the operation of private and public organisations in developing and developed countries. Developing countries are saddled with many project failures during the implementation of information systems. However, successful information systems are greatly needed in developing countries in order to enhance their economies. This paper is highly important in view of the high failure rate of information systems in developing countries which needs to be reduced to minimum acceptable levels by means of recommended interventions. This paper centres on a review of IS development in developing countries. The paper presents evidences of the IS successes and failures in developing countries and posits a model to address the IS failures. The proposed model can then be utilised by developing countries to reduce their IS project implementation failure rate. A comparison is drawn between IS development in developing countries and developed countries. The paper provides valuable information to assist in reducing IS failure, and developing IS models and theories on IS development for developing countries.

Keywords: developing countries, information systems, IS development, information systems failure, information systems success, information systems success model

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Authors: Stephen J Futter, Michael I Okereke

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This paper presents an investigation of the premature in-service failure of the engine mounting towers that form part of the bedframe commonly used for industrial power generation applications. The client during a routine in-service assessment of the generator set observed that the engine mounting towers had cracked. Thus, this study has investigated in detail the origin of the crack and proffered solutions to prevent a re-occurrence. Seven step problem solving methodology was followed during this paper. The study used both experimental and numerical approaches to understand, monitor and evaluate the cause and evolution of the premature failure. Findings from this study indicated that the failure resulted from a combination of varied processes from procurement of material parts, material selection, welding processes and inaptly designed load-bearing mechanics of the generating set and its mounting arrangement. These in-field observations and experimental simulations provided insights to design and validate a numerical finite element sub-model of the cracked bedframe considering thermal cycling: designed as part of these investigations. Resulting findings led to a recommendation of several procedural changes that should be adopted by the manufacturer, in order to prevent the re-occurrence of such pre-mature failure in future industrial applications.

Keywords: Engine, Premature Failure, Failure Analysis, Finite Element Model

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Authors: Katarzyna Niewiadomska

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Many technology startups fail to achieve a worthwhile return on investment for their funders, founders, and employees. Failures in product development, to-market strategy, sales, and delivery are commonly recognized. Founder failures are not as obvious and harder to identify. This paper explores six critical failure points that entrepreneurs and innovators are susceptible to and aims to link their emotional intelligence and behavioral profile to the points at which they experienced self-perceived failure. A model of six failure points from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur ranging from pre-startup to maturity is provided. By analyzing emotional and behavioral profile data from entrepreneurs and recording in-person accounts, certain key emotional and behavioral clusters contributing to each failure point are determined, and several underlying factors are defined and discussed. Recommendations that support entrepreneurs and innovators stalling at each failure point are given. This work can enable stakeholders to evaluate founder emotional and behavioral profiles and to take risk-mitigating action, either through coaching or through more robust team creation, to avoid founder-related company failure. The paper will be of interest to investors funding startups, executives leading them and mentors supporting them.

Keywords: behavior, emotional intelligence, entrepreneur, failure

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Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad

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In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data centre

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Authors: B. Paygozar, S.A. Dizaji

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Adhesive bonding is a highly valued type of fastening mechanical parts in complex structures, where joining some simple components is always needed. This method is of several merits, such as uniform stress distribution, appropriate bonding strength, and fatigue performance, and lightness, thereby outweighing other sorts of bonding methods. This study is to investigate the failure load of adhesive single-strap joints, including adherends of different sizes and materials. This kind of adhesive joint is very practical in different industries, especially when repairing the existing joints or attaching substrates of dissimilar materials. In this research, experimentally validated numerical analyses carried out in a commercial finite element package, ABAQUS, are utilized to extract the failure loads of the joints, based on the cohesive zone model. In addition, the stress analyses of the substrates are performed in order to acquire the effects of lowering the thickness of the substrates on the stress distribution inside them to avoid designs suffering from the necking or failure of the adherends. It was found out that this method of bonding is really feasible in joining dissimilar materials which can be utilized in a variety of applications. Moreover, the stress analyses indicated the minimum thickness for the adherends so as to avoid the failure of them.

Keywords: cohesive zone model, dissimilar materials, failure load, single strap joint

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Konja Knüppel, Gerrit Meyer, Peter Nyhuis

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The increasing interconnectedness and complexity of production processes raise the susceptibility of production systems to failure. Therefore, the ability to respond quickly to failures is increasingly becoming a competitive factor. The research project "Sustainable failure management in manufacturing SMEs" is developing a methodology to identify failures in the production and select preventive and reactive measures in order to correct failures and to establish sustainable failure management systems.

Keywords: failure categorization, failure management, logistic performance, production optimization

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Authors: Nazanin Ahmadi Daryakenari

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Background: Diabetes significantly influences the risk of heart failure. The interplay between distinct types of diabetes, heart failure, and their distribution across various age groups remains an area of active exploration. This study endeavors to scrutinize the age group distribution in publications addressing Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes and heart failure on PubMed while also examining the evolving publication trends. Methods: We leveraged E-utilities and RegEx to search and extract publication data from PubMed using various mesh terms. Subsequently, we conducted descriptive statistics and t-tests to discern the differences between the two diabetes types and the distribution across age groups. Finally, we analyzed the temporal trends of publications concerning both types of diabetes and heart failure. Results: Our findings revealed a divergence in the age group distribution between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes within heart failure publications. Publications discussing Type 2 diabetes and heart failure were more predominant among older age groups, whereas those addressing Type 1 diabetes and heart failure displayed a more balanced distribution across all age groups. The t-test revealed no significant difference in the means between the two diabetes types. However, the number of publications exploring the relationship between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure has seen a steady increase over time, suggesting an escalating interest in this area. Conclusion: The dissection of publication patterns on PubMed uncovers a pronounced association between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure within older age groups. This highlights the critical need to comprehend the distinct age group differences when examining diabetes and heart failure to inform and refine targeted prevention and treatment strategies.

Keywords: Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, heart failure, age groups, publication patterns, PubMed

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

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Authors: Ranajay Bhowmick

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Analysis of stresses for an infinitesimal tetrahedron leads to a situation where we obtain a cubic equation consisting of three stress invariants. This cubic equation, when solved for a definite condition, gives the principal stresses directly without requiring any cumbersome and time-consuming trial and error methods or iterative numerical procedures. Since the failure criterion of different materials are generally expressed as functions of principal stresses, an attempt has been made in this study to incorporate the solutions of the cubic equation in the form of principal stresses, obtained for a definite condition, into some of the established failure theories to determine their modified descriptions. It has been observed that the failure theories can be represented using the quadratic stress invariant and the orientation of the principal plane.

Keywords: cubic equation, stress invariant, trigonometric, explicit solution, principal stress, failure criterion

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Authors: Ali Noorzad, Ehsan Badakhshan, Shima Zameni

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The present paper is focused on a generalized failure criterion for geomaterials with cross-anisotropy. The cyclic behavior of granular material primarily depends on the nature and arrangement of constituent particles, particle size, and shape that affect fabric anisotropy. To account for the influence of loading directions on strength variations, an anisotropic variable in terms of the invariants of the stress tensor and fabric into the failure criterion is proposed. In an extension to original CANAsand constitutive model two concepts namely critical state and compact state play paramount roles as all of the moduli and coefficients are related to these states. The applicability of the present model is evaluated through comparisons between the predicted and the measured results. All simulations have demonstrated that the proposed constitutive model is capable of modeling the cyclic behavior of sand with inherent anisotropy.

Keywords: fabric, cohesionless media, cyclic loading, critical state, compact state, CANAsand constitutive model

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Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Nazar Abbas Saqib, Muazzam A. Khan

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Heart Failure (HF) has become the major health problem in our society. The prevalence of HF has increased as the patient’s ages and it is the major cause of the high mortality rate in adults. A successful identification and progression of HF can be helpful to reduce the individual and social burden from this syndrome. In this study, we use a real data set of cardiac patients to propose a classification model for the identification and progression of HF. The data set has divided into three age groups, namely young, adult, and old and then each age group have further classified into four classes according to patient’s current physical condition. Contemporary Data Mining classification algorithms have been applied to each individual class of every age group to identify the HF. Decision Tree (DT) gives the highest accuracy of 90% and outperform all other algorithms. Our model accurately diagnoses different stages of HF for each age group and it can be very useful for the early prediction of HF.

Keywords: decision tree, heart failure, data mining, classification model

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Authors: Elham Taghizadeh, Mostafa Abedzadeh, Mostafa Setak

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Logistics network is expected that opened facilities work continuously for a long time horizon without any failure; but in real world problems, facilities may face disruptions. This paper studies a reliable joint inventory location problem to optimize cost of facility locations, customers’ assignment, and inventory management decisions when facilities face failure risks and doesn’t work. In our model we assume when a facility is out of work, its customers may be reassigned to other operational facilities otherwise they must endure high penalty costs associated with losing service. For defining the model closer to real world problems, the model is proposed based on p-median problem and the facilities are considered to have limited capacities. We define a new binary variable (Z_is) for showing that customers are not assigned to any facilities. Our problem involve a bi-objective model; the first one minimizes the sum of facility construction costs and expected inventory holding costs, the second one function that mention for the first one is minimizes maximum expected customer costs under normal and failure scenarios. For solving this model we use NSGAII and MOSS algorithms have been applied to find the pareto- archive solution. Also Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is applied for optimizing the NSGAII Algorithm Parameters. We compare performance of two algorithms with three metrics and the results show NSGAII is more suitable for our model.

Keywords: joint inventory-location problem, facility location, NSGAII, MOSS

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Hadi Hesamsadat

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In this study, a parametric finite element modeling is developed to analyze failure modes of FRP pipes subjected to internal pressure. First-ply failure pressure and functional failure pressure was determined by a progressive damage modeling and then it is validated using experimental observations. The influence of both winding angle and fiber volume fraction is studied on the functional failure of FRP pipes and it corresponding pressure. It is observed that despite the fact that increasing fiber volume fraction will enhance the mechanical properties, it will be resulted in lower values for functional failure pressure. This shortcoming can be compensated by modifying the winding angle in angle plies of pipe wall structure.

Keywords: composite pipe, functional failure, progressive modeling, winding angle

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Authors: W. Wang, Y. Zhang, J. Shuai, Z. Lv

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The interaction between defects has an essential influence on the bearing capacity of pipelines. This work developed the finite element model of pipelines containing adjacent defects, which includes longitudinally aligned, circumferentially aligned, and diagonally aligned defects. The relationships between spacing and geometries of defects and the failure pressure of pipelines, and the interaction between defects are investigated. The results show that the orientation of defects is an influential factor in the failure pressure of the pipeline. The influence of defect spacing on the failure pressure of the pipeline is non-linear, and the relationship presents different trends depending on the orientation of defects. The increase of defect geometry will weaken the failure pressure of the pipeline, and for the interaction between defects, the increase of defect depth will enhance it, and the increase of defect length will weaken it. According to the research on the interaction rule between defects with different orientations, the interacting coefficients under different orientations of defects are compared. It is determined that the diagonally aligned defects with the overlap of longitudinal projections are the most obvious arrangement of interaction between defects, and the limited distance of interaction between defects is proposed.

Keywords: pipeline, adjacent defects, interaction between defects, failure pressure

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Authors: Azim Khodadadi, Sahar Sadaat Vakili, Ebrahim Babaei

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This study presents a numerical method to optimize the failure rate and repair time of a typical radial distribution system. Failure rate and repair time are effective parameters in customer and energy based indices of reliability. Decrease of these parameters improves reliability indices. Thus, system stability will be boost. The penalty functions indirectly reflect the cost of investment which spent to improve these indices. Constraints on customer and energy based indices, i.e. SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS have been considered by using a new method which reduces optimization algorithm controlling parameters. Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) used as main optimization technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), simulated annealing (SA) and differential evolution (DE) has been applied for further investigation. These algorithms have been implemented on a test system by MATLAB. Obtained results have been compared with each other. The optimized values of repair time and failure rate are much lower than current values which this achievement reduced investment cost and also ICA gives better answer than the other used algorithms.

Keywords: imperialist competitive algorithm, failure rate, repair time, radial distribution network

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Authors: Sašo Pečnik, Borut Žalik

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This paper presents a real-time visualization technique and filtering of classified LiDAR point clouds. The visualization is capable of displaying filtered information organized in layers by the classification attribute saved within LiDAR data sets. We explain the used data structure and data management, which enables real-time presentation of layered LiDAR data. Real-time visualization is achieved with LOD optimization based on the distance from the observer without loss of quality. The filtering process is done in two steps and is entirely executed on the GPU and implemented using programmable shaders.

Keywords: filtering, graphics, level-of-details, LiDAR, real-time visualization

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

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Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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Authors: S. W. Liu, J. H. Lv, W. Z. Wang

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In recent years, the failure accidents in petrochemical industry have been frequent, and have posed great security problems in personnel and property. The improvement of petrochemical safety is highly requested in order to prevent re-occurrence of severe accident. This study focuses on surveying the failure cases occurred in petrochemical field, which were extracted from journals of engineering failure, including engineering failure analysis and case studies in engineering failure analysis. The relation of failure mode, failure mechanism, type of components, and type of materials was analyzed in this study. And the analytical results showed that failures occurred more frequently in vessels and piping among the petrochemical equipment. Moreover, equipment made of carbon steel and stainless steel accounts for the majority of failures compared to other materials. This may be related to the application of the equipment and the performance of the material. In addition, corrosion failures were the largest in number of occurrence in the failure of petrochemical equipment, in which stress corrosion cracking accounts for a large proportion. This may have a lot to do with the service environment of the petrochemical equipment. Therefore, it can be concluded that the corrosion prevention of petrochemical equipment is particularly important.

Keywords: cases analysis, corrosion, failure, petrochemical industry

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Authors: Altoumi Alndalusi

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High-temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) failure is the common phenomena at elevated temperature in hydrogen environment in oil and gas field. The failure occurred once after four years at the internal surface of Platforming elbow. Both visual and microscopic examinations revealed that the failure was initiated due to blistering forming followed by large cracking at the inner surface. Crack morphology showed that the crack depth was about 50% of material wall thickness and its behavior generally was intergranular. This study concluded that the main reason led to failure due to incorrect material selection comparing to the platforming conditions.

Keywords: decarburization, failure, heat affected zone, morphology, partial pressure, plate form

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Authors: Yingkun Huang, Li Guo, Zekang Lan, Kai Tian

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Hard disk drives (HDD) failure of the exascale supercomputing system may lead to service interruption and invalidate previous calculations, and it will cause permanent data loss. Therefore, initiating corrective actions before hard drive failures materialize is critical to the continued operation of jobs. In this paper, a highly accurate analysis model based on CNN-LSTM and oversampling technique was proposed, which can correctly predict the necessity of a disk replacement even ten days in advance. Generally, the learning-based method performs poorly on a training dataset with long-tail distribution, especially fault prediction is a very classic situation as the scarcity of failure data. To overcome the puzzle, a new oversampling was employed to augment the data, and then, an improved CNN-LSTM with the shortcut was built to learn more effective features. The shortcut transmits the results of the previous layer of CNN and is used as the input of the LSTM model after weighted fusion with the output of the next layer. Finally, a detailed, empirical comparison of 6 prediction methods is presented and discussed on a public dataset for evaluation. The experiments indicate that the proposed method predicts disk failure with 0.91 Precision, 0.91 Recall, 0.91 F-measure, and 0.90 MCC for 10 days prediction horizon. Thus, the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm for predicting HDD failure in supercomputing.

Keywords: HDD replacement, failure, CNN-LSTM, oversampling, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 79