Search results for: water prediction

Authors: Shahnaz Mansouri, David Martin, Xiao Dong Chen, Meng Wai Woo

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Ultrafine hydrophobic and non-water-soluble drugs can increase the percentage of absorbed compared to their initial dosage. This paper provides a scalable new method of making ultrafine particles of substantially insoluble water compounds specifically, submicron particles of ethanol soluble and water insoluble pharmaceutical materials by steaming an ethanol droplet to prepare a suspension and then followed by immediate drying. This suspension is formed by adding evaporated water molecules as an anti-solvent to the solute of the samples and in early stage of precipitation continued to dry by evaporating both solvent and anti-solvent. This fine particle formation has produced fast dispersion powder in water. The new method is an extension of the antisolvent vapour precipitation technique which exposes a droplet to an antisolvent vapour with reference to the dissolved materials within the droplet. Ultrafine vitamin D3 and ibuprofen particles in the submicron ranges were produced. This work will form the basis for using spray dryers as high-throughput scalable micro-precipitators.

Keywords: single droplet drying, nano size particles, non-water-soluble drugs, precipitators

Procedia PDF Downloads 483

Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Dalma Varga, Nora Hubayne H.

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Nowadays, among the measures taken to offset the consequences of climate change, water resources management is one of the key tools, which can include excess water management. As a result of climate change’s effects and as a result of the frequent inappropriate landuse, more and more areas are affected by the excess water inundation. Hungary is located in the deepest part of the Pannonian Basin, which is exposed to water damage – especially lowland areas that are endangered by floods or excess waters. The periodical presence of excess water creates specific habitats in a given area, which have ecological, functional, and aesthetic values. Excess water inundation affects approximately 74% of Hungary’s lowland areas, of which about 46% is also under nature protection (such as national parks, protected landscape areas, nature conservation areas, Natura 2000 sites, etc.). These data prove that areas exposed to excess water inundation – which are predominantly characterized by agricultural land uses – have an important ecological role. Other research works have confirmed the presence of numerous rare and endangered plant species in drainage canals, on grasslands exposed to excess water, and on special agricultural fields with mud vegetation. The goal of this research is to define and analyze ecosystem services of areas exposed to excess water inundation. In addition to this, it is also important to determine the quantified indicators of these areas’ natural and landscape values besides the presence of protected species and the naturalness of habitats, so all in all, to analyze the various nature protections related to excess water. As a result, a practice-orientated assessment method has been developed that provides the ecological water demand, assimilates to ecological and habitat aspects, contributes to adaptive excess water management, and last but not least, increases or maintains the share of the green infrastructure network. In this way, it also contributes to reduce and mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Keywords: ecosystem services, landscape architecture, excess water management, green infrastructure planning

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Authors: G. M. Hamada, A. A. Al-Gathe, A. M. Al-Khudafi

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Determination of water saturation in sandstone is a vital question to determine the initial oil or gas in place in reservoir rocks. Water saturation determination using electrical measurements is mainly on Archie’s formula. Consequently accuracy of Archie’s formula parameters affects water saturation values rigorously. Determination of Archie’s parameters a, m, and n is proceeded by three conventional techniques, Core Archie-Parameter Estimation (CAPE) and 3-D. This work introduces the hybrid system of parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) targeting accepted values of Archie’s parameters and, consequently, reliable water saturation values. This work focuses on Archie’s parameters determination techniques; conventional technique, CAPE technique, and 3-D technique, and then the calculation of water saturation using current. Using the same data, a hybrid parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) algorithm is used to estimate Archie’s parameters and predict water saturation. Results have shown that estimated Arche’s parameters m, a, and n are highly accepted with statistical analysis, indicating that the PSONN model has a lower statistical error and higher correlation coefficient. This study was conducted using a high number of measurement points for 144 core plugs from a sandstone reservoir. PSONN algorithm can provide reliable water saturation values, and it can supplement or even replace the conventional techniques to determine Archie’s parameters and thereby calculate water saturation profiles.

Keywords: water saturation, Archie’s parameters, artificial intelligence, PSONN, sandstone reservoir

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Ngonidzashe Moyo, Mmaditshaba Rapatsa

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The primary objective of this study was to determine heavy metal contamination in the water, sediment, grass and fish in Sand River, South Africa. This river passes through an urban area and sewage effluent is discharged into it. Water from the Sand river is subsequently used for irrigation downstream of the sewage treatment works. The suitability of this water and the surrounding boreholes for irrigation was determined. This study was undertaken between January, 2014 and January, 2015. Monthly samples were taken from four sites. Sites 1 was upstream of the Polokwane Wastewater Treatment Plant, sites 2, 3 and 4 were downstream. Ten boreholes in the vicinity of the Sand River were randomly selected and the water was tested for heavy metal contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in Sand River water followed the order Mn>Fe>Pb>Cu≥Zn≥Cd. Manganese concentration averaged 0.34 mg/L. Heavy metal concentration in the sediment, grass and fish followed the order Fe>Mn>Zn>Cu>Pb>Cd. The bioaccumulation factor from grass to fish was highest in manganese (19.25), followed by zinc (16.39) and iron (14.14). Soil permeability index (PI) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) were used to determine the suitability of Sand River and borehole water for irrigation. The PI index for Sand River water was 75.1% and this indicates that Sand River water is suitable for irrigation of crops. The PI index for the borehole water ranged from 65.8-72.8% and again this indicates suitability of borehole water for crop irrigation. The sodium adsorption ratio also indicated that both Sand River and borehole water were suitable for irrigation. A risk assessment study is recommended to determine the suitability of the fish for human consumption.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, bioavailability, heavy metals, sodium adsorption ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Luisito L. Lacatan, Gian Carlo J. Bergonia, Felipe C. Buado III, Gerald L. Gono, Ron Mark V. Ortil, Calvin A. Yap

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This paper features the development of a Mobile Self-sustaining Electricity Generator for water distillation process with MCU- based wireless controller & indicator designed to solve the problem of scarcity of clean water. It is a fact that pure water is precious nowadays and its value is more precious to those who do not have or enjoy it. There are many water filtration products in existence today. However, none of these products fully satisfies the needs of families needing clean drinking water. All of the following products require either large sums of money or extensive maintenance, and some products do not even come with a guarantee of potable water. The proposed project was designed to alleviate the problem of scarcity of potable water in the country and part of the purpose was also to identify the problem or loopholes of the project such as the distance and speed required to produce electricity using a wheel and alternator, the required time for the heating element to heat up, the capacity of the battery to maintain the heat of the heating element and the time required for the boiler to produce a clean and potable water. The project has three parts. The first part included the researchers’ effort to plan every part of the project from the conversion of mechanical energy to electrical energy, from purifying water to potable drinking water to the controller and indicator of the project using microcontroller unit (MCU). This included identifying the problem encountered and any possible solution to prevent and avoid errors. Gathering and reviewing related studies about the project helped the researcher reduce and prevent any problems before they could be encountered. It also included the price and quantity of materials used to control the budget.

Keywords: mobile, self – sustaining, electricity generator, water distillation, wireless battery indicator, wireless water level indicator

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Authors: Aklilu Zeleke

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A cross-sectional study was conducted in order to understand the effect of wet and dry seasons on the free residual chlorine and bacteriological contamination of the Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) water supply system. Water samples were taken at 30 selected distribution points and analyzed for Free Residual Chlorine and bacteriological analysis total coliforms and fecal coliform). It was found that some of the bacteriological data and Free Residual Chlorine levels are below the recommended values and beyond the maximum tolerable limits recommended by World Health Organization and Ethiopian National Standards. Water quality during the dry season is better than that of the wet season. There is a strong relationship between Free Residual Chlorine levels in drinking water and its bacteriological quality.

Keywords: addis ababa, wet season, dry season, free residual chlorine

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Elizabeth Spink

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Providing safe and affordable drinking water to low-income households in developing countries remains a challenge. Policy goals of increasing household piped-water access and cost recovery for utility providers are often at odds. Nonpayment of utility bills is frequently cited as a constraint to improving the quality of utility service. However, nonpayment is widely tolerated, and households often accumulate significant debt to the utility provider. This study examines the effect of enforcement of water bill payment through supply disconnections in Livingstone, Zambia. This research uses a dynamic model of household monthly payments and accumulation of arrears, which determine the probability of disconnection, and simulates the effect of exogenous changes in enforcement levels. This model is empirically tested using an event-study framework of exogenous increases in enforcement capacity that occur during administrative rezoning events, which reduce the number of households that one enforcement agent is responsible for. The results show that households are five percentage points more likely to make a payment in the months following a rezoning event, but disconnections for low-income households increase as well, resulting in little change in revenue collected by the water utility. The results suggest that high enforcement of water bill payments toward credit-constrained households may be ineffective and lead to reduced piped-water access.

Keywords: enforcement, nonpayment, piped-water access, water utilities

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Authors: Mihaela Alina Stanciu, Daniel Toma

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With a touristic and economic potential among the highest in our country, Neamț County has a large number of impressive storage lakes (Izvoru Muntelui – Bicaz, Bâtca Doamnei, Vaduri, Pângărați), with high hydrographic capacities, but also a diversity of biotopes and habitats. Being an area with frequent exceedances of environmental quality indicators, we analyzed in this work their impact on the water quality parameters in three of the most visited lakes of Neamț County: Bâtca Doamnei, Vaduri, and Pângărați. An additional reason is the risk of the water eutrophication process in these lakes, representing one of the first six most important pollution problems worldwide. During the research carried out over a period of four years (2020 – 2024), we identified the major sources of water pollution for the mentioned reservoirs. We analyzed the type of impact produced by each source separately, and we proposed preventiong and control measures detailed according to their action on water quality parameters.

Keywords: ecosystem, environment, eutrophication, lakes, nutrients, pollution, water quality

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: Md Asif Imrul, Maria Rafique, M. Habibur Rahman

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The study deals with an investigation into the impact of the relocation of tannery industry on water quality parameters of Buriganga. For this purpose, previous records have been collected from authentic data resources and for the attainment of present values, several samples were collected from three major locations of the Buriganga River during summer and winter seasons in 2018 to determine the distribution and variation of water quality parameters. Samples were collected six ft below the river water surface. Analysis indicates slightly acidic to slightly alkaline (6.8-7.49) in nature. Bio-Chemical Oxygen Demand, Total Dissolved Solids, Total Solids (TS) & Total Suspended Solids (TSS) have been found greater in summer. On the other hand, Dissolved Oxygen is found greater in rainy seasons. Relocation shows improvement in water quality parameters. Though the improvement related to relocation of tannery industry is not adequate to turn the water body to be an inhabitable place for aquatic lives.

Keywords: Buriganga river, river pollution, tannery industry, water quality parameters

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Boualla Nabila

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The increasing demand on water, either for the drinkable water supply, or for the agricultural and industrial custom, requires a very thorough hydrochemical study to protect better and manage this resource. Oran is relatively a city with the worst quality of the water. Recently, the growing populations may put stress on natural waters by impairing the quality of the water. Campaign of water sampling of 55 points capturing different levels of the aquifer system was done for chemical analyzes of nutriments elements. The results allowed us to approach the problem of contamination based on the largely uniform nationwide approach LAWA (LänderarbeitsgruppeWasser), based on the EU CIS guidance, has been applied for the identification of pressures and impacts, allowing for easy comparison. Groundwater samples were analyzed, also, for physico-chemical parameters such as pH, sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulphate, carbonate and bicarbonate. The analytical results obtained in this hydrochemistry study were interpreted using Durov diagram. Based on these representations, the anomaly of high groundwater salinity observed in Oran Sebkha basin was explained by the high chloride concentration and to the presence of inverse cation exchange reaction. Durov diagram plot revealed that the groundwater has been evolved from Ca-HCO3 recharge water through mixing with the pre-existing groundwater to give mixed water of Mg-SO4 and Mg-Cl types that eventually reached a final stage of evolution represented by a Na-Cl water type.

Keywords: contamination, water quality, nutrients elements, approach LAWA, durov diagram

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Yahia Mosleh

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Both Scenedesmus obliquus and Cosmarium leave were subjected to different concentrations (5, 10, 20, 50, and 80 %) of highly polluted water collected from Haddows drainage, which receives high amount of domestic sewage, and also the increasing agriculture run off and industrial effluent, then disbursed it in El-Salam fresh water canal. The water in that canal dramatically used as drinking water alongside using in irrigation. A total of 25 physicochemical parameters were determined within the drainage polluted water and also up-stream of El-Salam fresh water canal's water. The effect of five concentrations of the tested polluted water were determined on growth density, dry algal biomass, net photosynthetic oxygen production, catalase activity and ascorbic acid content on the two algae "Scenedesmus obliquus and Cosmarium leave". The result reveal that, low concentration support the growth and the physiological activities of both algae. However, the situation is different in the case of high concentrations, where it encourage the growth of Scenedesmus obliquus , meanwhile the same concentration were inhibited the growth and physiological activities of Cosmarium leave. Which indicated that, Scenedesmus obliquus tolerated high pollution better than Cosmarium leave. Finally it can be concluded that, different organisms, however, have different sensitivities to the same pollutants and the same organisms may be more or less damaged by different pollutant. Also, the inhibitory and stimulatory effects of different species varied with concentrations.

Keywords: catalase activity, ascorbic acid content, Scenedesmus, Cosmarium, pollution, biomass

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Amer Obaid Saud

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Water quality index (WQI) is considered as an effective tool in categorization of water resources for its quality and suitability for different uses. The Canadian version of water quality index (CCME WQI) which based on the comparison of the water quality parameters to regulatory standards and give a single value to the water quality of a source was applied in this study to assess the water quality of Euphrates river in Iraq at Babylon Governorate north of Baghdad and determine its suitability for aquatic environment (GWQI), drinking water (PWSI) and irrigation(IWQI). Five stations were selected on the river in Babylon (Euphrates River/AL-Musiab, Hindia barrage, two stations at Hilla city and the fifth station at Al-Hshmeya north of Hilla. Fifteen water samples were collected every month during August 2013 to July 2014 at the study sites and analyzed for the physico-chemical parameters like (Temperature, pH, Electrical Conductivity, Total Dissolved Solids(TDS), Total Suspended Solids(TSS), Total Alkalinity, Total Hardness, Calcium and Magnesium Concentration, some of nutrient like Nitrite, Nitrate, Phosphate also the study of concentration of some heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, and Cd) in water and comparison of measures to benchmarks such as guidelines and objectives to assess change in water quality. The result of Canadian version of(CCME .WQI) to assess the irrigation water quality (IWQI) of Euphrates river was (83-good) at site one during second seasonal period while the lowest was (66-Fair) in the second station during the fourth seasonal period, the values of potable water supply index (PWSI)that the highest value was (68-Fair) in the fifth site during the second period while the lowest value (42 -Poor) in the second site during the first seasonal period,the highest value for general water quality (GWQI) was (74-Fair) in site five during the second seasonal period, the lowest value (48-Marginal) in the second site during the first seasonal period. It was observed that the main cause of deterioration in water quality was due to the lack of, unprotected river sites ,high anthropogenic activities and direct discharge of industrial effluent.

Keywords: Babylon governorate, Canadian version, water quality, Euphrates river

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Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

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There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

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Authors: Robyn Augustine, Irena Petrinic, Claus Helix-Nielsen, Marshall S. Sheldon

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This study examined the performance of two commercial forward osmosis (FO) membranes; an aquaporin (AQP) based biomimetic membrane, and cellulose triacetate (CTA) membrane in a fertiliser is drawn forward osmosis (FDFO) system for the reclamation of water from synthetic winery wastewater (SWW) operated over 24 hr. Straight, 1 M KCl and 1 M NH₄NO₃ fertiliser solutions were evaluated as draw solutions in the FDFO system. The performance of the AQP-based biomimetic and CTA FO membranes were evaluated in terms of permeate water flux (Jw), reverse solute flux (Js) and percentage water recovery (Re). The average water flux and reverse solute flux when using 1 M KCl as a draw solution against controlled feed solution, deionised (DI) water, was 11.65 L/m²h and 3.98 g/m²h (AQP) and 6.24 L/m²h and 2.89 g/m²h (CTA), respectively. Using 1 M NH₄NO₃ as a draw solution yielded average water fluxes and reverse solute fluxes of 10.73 L/m²h and 1.31 g/m²h (AQP) and 5.84 L/m²h and 1.39 g/m²h (CTA), respectively. When using SWW as the feed solution and 1 M KCl and 1 M NH₄NO₃ as draw solutions, respectively, the average water fluxes observed were 8.15 and 9.66 L/m²h (AQP) and 5.02 and 5.65 L/m²h (CTA). Membrane water flux decline was the result of a combined decrease in the effective driving force of the FDFO system, reverse solute flux and organic fouling. Permeate water flux recoveries of between 84-98%, and 83-89% were observed for the AQP-based biomimetic and CTA membrane, respectively after physical cleaning by flushing was employed. The highest water recovery rate of 49% was observed for the 1 M KCl fertiliser draw solution with AQP-based biomimetic membrane and proved superior in the reclamation of water from SWW.

Keywords: aquaporin biomimetic membrane, cellulose triacetate membrane, forward osmosis, reverse solute flux, synthetic winery wastewater and water flux

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Authors: Jong Won, Park, Sung Hyun, Kim

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The kinetic energy to pass subjected to shock and chisel reciprocating piston hydraulic power supplied by the excavator using for the purpose of crushing the rock, and roads, buildings, etc., hydraulic breakers blow. Impact frequency, efficiency measurement of the impact energy, hydraulic breakers, to demonstrate the ability of hydraulic breaker manufacturers and users to a very important item. And difficult in order to confirm the initial performance degradation in the life of the hydraulic breaker has been thought to be a problem.In this study, we measure the efficiency of hydraulic breaker, Impact energy and Impact frequency, the degradation analysis of research to predict the life.

Keywords: impact energy, impact frequency, hydraulic breaker, life prediction

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Ryuichi Yatabe

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In this study, a residual-state creep failure model was developed based on the residual-state creep test results of clayey soils. To develop the proposed model, the regression analyses were done by using the R. The model results of the failure time (tf) and critical displacement (δc) were compared with experimental results and found in close agreements to each others. It is expected that the proposed regression model for residual-state creep failure will be more useful for the prediction of displacement of different clayey soils in the future.

Keywords: regression model, residual-state creep failure, displacement prediction, clayey soils

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Authors: T. Boonraksa, B. Marungsri

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This paper presents the experimental results on role of ionic solutions affect water treeing propagation in cross-linked polyethylene insulation for high voltage cable. To study the water treeing expansion due to the ionic solutions, discs of 4mm thickness and 4cm diameter were taken from 115 kV XLPE insulation cable and were used as test specimen in this study. Ionic solutions composed of CuSO4, FeSO4, Na2SO4 and K2SO4 were used. Each specimen was immersed in 0.1 mole ionic solutions and was tested for 120 hrs. under a voltage stress at 7 kV AC rms, 1000 Hz. The results show that Na2SO4 and CuSO4solutions play an important role in the expansion of water treeing and cause degradation of the cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) in the presence of the applied electric field.

Keywords: ionic solutions, water treeing, water treeing expansion, cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE)

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Nana Bolashvili, Vakhtang Geladze, Tamazi Karalashvili, Nino Machavariani, George Geladze, Davit Kartvelishvili, Ana Karalashvili

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Fresh water is the major natural resource of Georgia. The average perennial sum of the rivers' runoff in Georgia is 52,77 km³, out of which 9,30 km³ inflows from abroad. The major volume of transit river runoff is ascribed to the Chorokhi river. Average perennial runoff in Western Georgia is 41,52 km³, in Eastern Georgia 11,25 km³. The indices of Eastern and Western Georgia were calculated with 50% and 90% river runoff respectively, while the same index calculation for other countries is based on a 50% river runoff. Out of total volume of resources, 133,2 m³/sec (4,21 km³) has been geologically prospected by the State Commission on Reserves and Acknowledged as reserves available for exploitation, 48% (2,02 km³) of which is in Western Georgia and 2,19 km³ in Eastern Georgia. Considering acknowledged water reserves of all categories per capita water resources accounts to 2,2 m³/day, whereas high industrial category -0. 88 m³ /day fresh drinking water. According to accepted norms, the possibility of using underground water reserves is 2,5 times higher than the long-term requirements of the country. The volume of abundant fresh-water reserves in Georgia is about 150 m³/sec (4,74 km³). Water in Georgia is consumed mostly in agriculture for irrigation purposes. It makes 66,4% around Georgia, in Eastern Georgia 72,4% and 38% in Western Georgia. According to the long-term forecast provision of population and the territory with water resources in Eastern Georgia will be quite normal. A bit different is the situation in the lower reaches of the Khrami and Iori rivers which could be easily overcome by corresponding financing. The present day irrigation system in Georgia does not meet the modern technical requirements. The overall efficiency of their majority varies between 0,4-0,6. Similar is the situation in the fresh water and public service water consumption. Organization of the mentioned systems, installation of water meters, introduction of new methods of irrigation without water loss will substantially increase efficiency of water use. Besides new irrigation norms developed from agro-climatic, geographical and hydrological angle will significantly reduce water waste. Taking all this into account we assume that for irrigation agricultural lands in Georgia is necessary 6,0 km³ water, 5,5 km³ of which goes to Eastern Georgia on irrigation arable areas. To increase water supply in Eastern Georgian territory and its population is possible by means of new water reservoirs as the runoff of every river considerably exceeds the consumption volume. In conclusion, we should say that fresh water resources by which Georgia is that rich could be significant source for barter exchange and investment attraction. Certain volume of fresh water can be exported from Western Georgia quite trouble free, without bringing any damage to population and hydroecosystems. The precise volume of exported water per region/time and method/place of water consumption should be defined after the estimation of different hydroecosystems and detailed analyses of water balance of the corresponding territories.

Keywords: GIS, management, rivers, water resources

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Authors: Fitri CaturLestari

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According to National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), demographic bonus will occur in 2025-2035, when the number of people within the productive age bracket is higher than the number of elderly people and children. This time will be a gold moment for Indonesia to achieve maximum productivity and prosperity. But it will be a demographic bomb if it isn’t balanced by economic and social aspect considerations. Therefore it is important to make a prediction mapping of all provinces in Indonesia whether in demographic bomb or bonus condition after 100 years Indonesian independence. The purpose of this research were to make the demographic mapping based on the economic and social aspects of the provinces in Indonesia and categorizing them into demographic bomb and bonus condition. The research data are gained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as the secondary data. The multiregional component method, regression and quadrant analysis were used to predict the number of people, economic growth, Human Development Index (HDI), and gender equality in education and employment. There were different characteristic of provinces in Indonesia from economic aspect and social aspect. The west Indonesia was already better developed than the east one. The prediction result, many provinces in Indonesia will get demographic bonus but the others will get demographic bomb. It is important to prepare particular strategy to particular provinces with all of their characteristic based on the prediction result so the demographic bomb can be minimalized.

Keywords: demography, economic growth, gender, HDI

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Authors: Hygreeva Kiran Namburi, Anna Hojna, Edita Lecianova, Fencl Zdenek

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Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking [IASCC] is one of the most significant environmental degradation in the internal components made from Austenitic stainless steel. This mechanism is still not fully understood and there are no suitable criteria for prediction of the damage during operation. In this work, core basket material 08Ch18N10T austenitic stainless steel acquired from decommissioned NPP Nord / Greifswald Unit 1, VVER 440-230 type, operated for 15 years and irradiated at 5.2 dpa is studied. This material was tensile tested at two different test temperatures and strain rates in air and at the elevated temperature under the water environment. SEM observations of the fracture surface documented ductile fracture of the samples tested in air, but areas of IASCC tested in water. This paper emphasizes on the microscopic examination results from the mechanically tested samples to determine the underlying IASCC physical damage process. TEM observations of thin foils made from the gauge sections that are closer to the fractured surface of the specimen aimed to find variances in interaction of dislocations and grain boundaries owing to different test conditions.

Keywords: irradiation assisted stress corrosion cracking, core basket material, SEM observations of the fracture surface, microscopic examination results

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Authors: M. Derraz, M. Farhaoui

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Problem statement: In the water treatment processes, the coagulation and flocculation processes produce sludge according to the level of the water turbidity. The aluminum sulfate is the most common coagulant used in water treatment plants of Morocco as well as many countries. It is difficult to manage Sludge produced by the treatment plant. However, it can be used in the process to improve the quality of the treated water and reduce the aluminum sulfate dose. Approach: In this study, the effectiveness of sludge was evaluated at different turbidity levels (low, medium, and high turbidity) and coagulant dosage to find optimal operational conditions. The influence of settling time was also studied. A set of jar test experiments was conducted to find the sludge and aluminum sulfate dosages in order to improve the produced water quality for different turbidity levels. Results: Results demonstrated that using sludge produced by the treatment plant can improve the quality of the produced water and reduce the aluminum sulfate using. The aluminum sulfate dosage can be reduced from 40 to 50% according to the turbidity level (10, 20, and 40 NTU). Conclusions/Recommendations: Results show that sludge can be used in order to reduce the aluminum sulfate dosage and improve the quality of treated water. The highest turbidity removal efficiency is observed within 6 mg/l of aluminum sulfate and 35 mg/l of sludge in low turbidity, 20 mg/l of aluminum sulfate and 50 mg/l of sludge in medium turbidity and 20 mg/l of aluminum sulfate and 60 mg/l of sludge in high turbidity. The turbidity removal efficiency is 97.56%, 98.96%, and 99.47% respectively for low, medium and high turbidity levels.

Keywords: coagulation process, coagulant dose, sludge reuse, turbidity removal

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Authors: Thomas Okechukwu Onah, Onyekachi Marcel Egwuagu

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Zero-surface temperature, which controlled the cooling profile, was modeled and used to investigate the effect of process parameters on the hot-rolled steel plates. The parameters include impingement gaps of 40mm to 70mm; pipe diameters of 20mm to 45mm feeding jet nozzle with 30 holes of 8mm diameters each; and flow rates within 2.896x10-⁶m³/s and 3.13x10-⁵m³/s. The developed simulation model of the Zero-Surface Temperature, upon validation, showed 99% prediction accuracy with dimensional homogeneity established. The evaluated Zero-Surface temperature of Controlled Water Jet Impingement Steel plates showed a high cooling rate of 36.31 Celsius degree/sec at an optimal cooling nozzle diameter of 20mm, impingement gap of 70mm and a flow rate of 1.77x10-⁵m³/s resulting in Reynold's number 2758.586, in the turbulent regime was obtained. It was also deduced that as the nozzle diameter was increasing, the impingement gap was reducing. This achieved a faster rate of cooling to an optimum temperature of 300oC irrespective of the starting surface cooling temperature. The results additionally showed that with a tested-plate initial temperature of 550oC, a controlled cooling temperature of about 160oC produced a film and nucleated boiling heat extraction that was particularly beneficial at the end of controlled cooling and influenced the microstructural properties of the test plates.

Keywords: temperature, mechanistic-model, plates, impingements, dimensionless-numbers

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

Abstract:

Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Daniel Murrant, Andrew Quinn, Lee Chapman

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A growing population has led to increasing global water and energy demand. This demand, combined with the effects of climate change and an increasing need to maintain and protect the natural environment, represents a potentially severe threat to many national infrastructure systems. This has resulted in a considerable quantity of published material on the interdependencies that exist between the supply of water and the thermal generation of electricity, often known as the water-energy nexus. Focusing specifically on the UK, there is a growing concern that the future availability of water may at times constrain thermal electricity generation, and therefore hinder the UK in meeting its increasing demand for a secure, and affordable supply of low carbon electricity. To provide further information on the threat the water-energy nexus may pose to the UK’s energy system, this paper models the regional water demand of UK thermal electricity generation in 2030 and 2050. It uses the strategically important Energy Systems Modelling Environment model developed by the Energy Technologies Institute. Unlike previous research, this paper was able to use abstraction and consumption factors specific to UK power stations. It finds that by 2050 the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and North West regions are those with the greatest freshwater demand and therefore most likely to suffer from a lack of resource. However, it finds that by 2050 it is the East, South West and East Midlands regions with the greatest total water (fresh, estuarine and seawater) demand and the most likely to be constrained by environmental standards.

Keywords: climate change, power station cooling, UK water-energy nexus, water abstraction, water resources

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Authors: Chengalappa Seenappa, Narayanappa Devkumar, Narayanappa Nagaraja

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Mulberry leaf is the major economic component in sericulture and quality of leaf produced per unit area has a direct effect on quality of cocoon. Among all the agronomical inputs, irrigation water has highest impact on mulberry leaf quantity and quality. The water productivity in sericulture in the country is inadequate and inefficient though India has the largest irrigated area. There is a need of proper irrigation methods and conservation practices to ensure efficiency and economy in water use. Hence, this field experiment was conducted at College of Sericulture, Chintamani, Chickaballapur district, Karnataka, India during 2013 and 2014 to know the quantity, quality and water productivity of mulberry influenced by different methods, levels of irrigation and mulching in Eastern Dry Zone (EDZ) of Karnataka, India. The results revealed that the mulberry leaf quantity, quality and water productivity were significantly influenced by different methods, levels of irrigation and mulching. Subsurface drip irrigation at 0.8 CPE (Cumulative Pan Evaporation) recorded higher leaf yield, chlorophyll, relative water, protein content and water productivity (42857 kg ha-1 yr-1, 8.54, 65.80%, 22.27% and 364.41 kg hacm-1, respectively) than surface drip at 1.0 CPE (38809 kg ha-1 yr-1, 7.34, 62.76%, 17.75% and 264 10 kg hacm-1, respectively) and micro spray jet at 1.0 CPE (39931 kg ha-1 yr-1, 7.96, 63.50%, 19.00%, 35617 kg ha-1 yr-1 and 271.83 kg hacm-1, respectively). Mulching treatment recorded maximum leaf yield, chlorophyll, relative water, protein content and water productivity (38035 kg ha-1 yr-1, 7.12, 62.11%, 16.14% and 330 kg hacm-1, respectively) compared to without mulching. These results clearly indicated that subsurface drip irrigation at lower level of irrigation (0.8 CPE) and mulching increased the quantity, quality and water productivity of mulberry leaf than surface drip and micro spray jet irrigation at higher level of irrigation (1.0 CPE) by saving 20 per cent of water. Therefore, in the coming days subsurface drip irrigation in mulberry cultivation may be more appropriate to realise higher yield, quality and water productivity in EDZ of Karnataka, India.

Keywords: subsurface drip irrigation, mulching, water productivity, mulberry

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Authors: B. Lee, B. H. Choi

Abstract:

The loss of safety for reservoirs brought about by climate change and facility aging leads to reservoir failures, which results in the loss of lives and property damage in downstream areas. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a reservoir failure alert system for downstream residents to detect the early signs of failure (with sensors) in real-time and perform safety management to prevent and minimize possible damage. 10 case studies were carried out to verify the water level management criteria of four levels (attention, caution, alert, serious). Peak changes in water level data were analysed. The results showed that ‘Caution’ and ‘Alert’ were closed to 33% and 66% of difference in level between flood water level and full water level. Therefore, it is adequate to use initial water level management criteria of reservoir failure alert system for the first year. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by a grant (2017-MPSS31-002) from 'Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management' funded by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety(MOIS)

Keywords: alert system, management criteria, reservoir failure, sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 200