Search results for: phytochemical absorption prediction model

Authors: Anwar Ul Haque, Waqar Asrar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffar S. M. Ali

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Pressure distribution data of the standard airfoils is usually used for the calibration purposes in subsonic wind tunnels. Results of such experiments are quite old and obtained by using the model in the spanwise direction. In this manuscript, pressure distribution over NACA 4412 airfoil model was presented by placing the 3D model in the lateral direction. The model is made of metal with pressure ports distributed longitudinally as well as in the lateral direction. The pressure model was attached to the floor of the tunnel with the help of the base plate to give the specified angle of attack to the model. Before the start of the experiments, the pressure tubes of the respective ports of the 128 ports pressure scanner are checked for leakage, and the losses due to the length of the pipes were also incorporated in the results for the specified pressure range. Growth rate maps of the boundary layer thickness were also plotted. It was found that with the increase in the velocity, the dynamic pressure distribution was also increased for the alpha seep. Plots of pressure distribution so obtained were overlapped with those obtained by using XFLR software, a low fidelity tool. It was found that at moderate and high angles of attack, the distribution of the pressure coefficients obtained from the experiments is high when compared with the XFLR ® results obtained along with the span of the wing. This under-prediction by XFLR ® is more obvious on the windward than on the leeward side.

Keywords: subsonic flow, boundary layer, wind tunnel, pressure testing

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Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

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The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×80^w×80^h, 160^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×40^w×80^h and 80^d×160^w×80^h in mm³) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80^d×80^w×80^h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width

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Authors: Chia-Yu Chang, Yi-Feng Lin

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CO2 capture has attracted significant research attention due to global warming. Among the various CO2 capture methods, membrane technology has proven to be highly efficient in capturing CO2 due to the ease at which this technology can be scaled up, its low energy consumptions, small area requirements and overall environmental friendliness for use by industrial plants. Capturing CO2 is to use a membrane contactor with a combination of water-repellent porous membranes and chemical absorption processes. In a CO2 membrane contactor system, CO2 passes through a hydrophobic porous membrane in the gas phase to contact the amine absorbent in the liquid phase. Consequently, additional CO2 gas is absorbed by amine absorbents. This study examines highly porous Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)/Polystyrene (PS) Nanofibrous Membranes and successfully coated onto a macroporous Al2O3 membrane. The performance of these materials in a membrane contactor system for CO2 absorption is also investigated. Compared with pristine PS nanofibrous membranes, the PDMS/PS nanofibrous membranes exhibit greater solvent resistance and mechanical strength, making them more suitable for use in CO2 capture by the membrane contactor. The resulting hydrophobic membrane contactor also demonstrates the potential for large-scale CO2 absorption during post-combustion processes in power plants.

Keywords: CO2 capture, polystyrene, polydimethylsiloxane, superhydrophobic

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Authors: Khaleel Sami Hamdan, Dong-Eok Kim, Sang-Ki Moon

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An appropriate model to predict the size of the droplets resulting from the break-up with the structures will help in a better understanding and modeling of the two-phase flow calculations in the simulation of a reactor core loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). A droplet behavior impacting on a hot surface above the Leidenfrost temperature was investigated. Droplets of known size and velocity were impacted to an inclined plate of hot temperature, and the behavior of the droplets was observed by a high-speed camera. It was found that for droplets of Weber number higher than a certain value, the higher the Weber number of the droplet the smaller the secondary droplets. The COBRA-TF model over-predicted the measured secondary droplet sizes obtained by the present experiment. A simple model for the secondary droplet size was proposed using the mass conservation equation. The maximum spreading diameter of the droplets was also compared to previous correlations and a fairly good agreement was found. A better prediction of the heat transfer in the case of LOCA can be obtained with the presented model.

Keywords: break-up, droplet, impact, inclined hot plate, Leidenfrost temperature, LOCA

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Jihee Jang, Seowon Yoon, Gaeun Son, Minjung Kang, Joon Yeon Choeh, Kee-Hong Choi

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Background: Self-report multiple choice questionnaires have been widely utilized to quantitatively measure one’s personality and psychological constructs. Despite several strengths (e.g., brevity and utility), self-report multiple-choice questionnaires have considerable limitations in nature. With the rise of machine learning (ML) and Natural language processing (NLP), researchers in the field of psychology are widely adopting NLP to assess psychological constructs to predict human behaviors. However, there is a lack of connections between the work being performed in computer science and that psychology due to small data sets and unvalidated modeling practices. Aims: The current article introduces the study method and procedure of phase II, which includes the interview questions for the five-factor model (FFM) of personality developed in phase I. This study aims to develop the interview (semi-structured) and open-ended questions for the FFM-based personality assessments, specifically designed with experts in the field of clinical and personality psychology (phase 1), and to collect the personality-related text data using the interview questions and self-report measures on personality and psychological distress (phase 2). The purpose of the study includes examining the relationship between natural language data obtained from the interview questions, measuring the FFM personality constructs, and psychological distress to demonstrate the validity of the natural language-based personality prediction. Methods: The phase I (pilot) study was conducted on fifty-nine native Korean adults to acquire the personality-related text data from the interview (semi-structured) and open-ended questions based on the FFM of personality. The interview questions were revised and finalized with the feedback from the external expert committee, consisting of personality and clinical psychologists. Based on the established interview questions, a total of 425 Korean adults were recruited using a convenience sampling method via an online survey. The text data collected from interviews were analyzed using natural language processing. The results of the online survey, including demographic data, depression, anxiety, and personality inventories, were analyzed together in the model to predict individuals’ FFM of personality and the level of psychological distress (phase 2).

Keywords: personality prediction, psychological distress prediction, natural language processing, machine learning, the five-factor model of personality

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Authors: George Eduful, Ebenezer A. Jackson, Kingsford A. Atanga

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This paper investigates the impacts of cable length and capacity of transformer on ferroresonant overvoltage in cable-fed transformers. The study was conducted by simulation using the EMTP RV. Results show that ferroresonance can cause dangerous overvoltages ranging from 2 to 5 per unit. These overvoltages impose stress on insulations of transformers and cables and subsequently result in system failures. Undertaking Basic Multiple Regression Analysis (BMR) on the results obtained, a statistical model was obtained in terms of cable length and transformer capacity. The model is useful for ferroresonant prediction and control in cable-fed transformers.

Keywords: ferroresonance, cable-fed transformers, EMTP RV, regression analysis

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Authors: Joy Cao, Min Zhou

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Purpose: Acute Type A aortic dissection is a well-known cause of extremely high mortality rate. A highly accurate and cost-effective non-invasive predictor is critically needed so that the patient can be treated at earlier stage. Although various CFD approaches have been tried to establish some prediction frameworks, they are sensitive to uncertainty in both image segmentation and boundary conditions. Tedious pre-processing and demanding calibration procedures requirement further compound the issue, thus hampering their clinical applicability. Using the latest physics informed deep learning methods to establish an accurate and cost-effective predictor framework are amongst the main goals for a better Type A aortic dissection treatment. Methods: Via training a novel physics-informed deep residual network, with non-invasive 4D MRI displacement vectors as inputs, the trained model can cost-effectively calculate all these biomarkers: aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI, which are used to predict potential type A aortic dissection to avoid the high mortality events down the road. Results: The proposed deep learning method has been successfully trained and tested with both synthetic 3D aneurysm dataset and a clinical dataset in the aortic dissection context using Google colab environment. In both cases, the model has generated aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI results matching the expected patient’s health status. Conclusion: The proposed novel physics-informed deep residual network shows great potential to create a cost-effective, non-invasive predictor framework. Additional physics-based de-noising algorithm will be added to make the model more robust to clinical data noises. Further studies will be conducted in collaboration with big institutions such as Cleveland Clinic with more clinical samples to further improve the model’s clinical applicability.

Keywords: type-a aortic dissection, deep residual networks, blood flow modeling, data-driven modeling, non-invasive diagnostics, deep learning, artificial intelligence.

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Authors: Sara Hasani

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This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

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Authors: Djelloul Addad, Fatiha Belkhadem Mokhtari

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The objective of this work is to study the retention of methylene blue (MB) by biomass. The Biomass is characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared absorption (IRTF). Results show that the biomass contains organic and mineral substances. The effect of certain physicochemical parameters on the adsorption of MB is studied (effect of the pH). This study shows that the increase in the initial concentration of MB leads to an increase in the adsorbed quantity. The adsorption efficiency of MB decreases with increasing biomass mass. The adsorption kinetics show that the adsorption is rapid, and the maximum amount is reached after 120 min of contact time. It is noted that the pH has no great influence on the adsorption. The isotherms are best modelled by the Langmuir model. The adsorption kinetics follow the pseudo-second-order model. The thermodynamic study of adsorption shows that the adsorption is spontaneous and exothermic.

Keywords: dyes, adsorption, biomass, methylene blue, langmuir

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Authors: Hui-Min Lai, Chin-Pin Chen, Yung-Fu Chang

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The expectation-confirmation model (ECM) is one of the most widely used models for evaluating information system continuance, and this model has been extended to other study backgrounds, or expanded with other theoretical perspectives. However, combining ECM with other theories or investigating the background problem may produce some disparities, thus generating inaccurate conclusions. Habit is considered to be an important factor that influences the user’s continuance behavior. This paper thus critically examines seven pairs of relationships from the original ECM and the habit variable. A meta-analysis was used to tackle the development of ECM research over the last 10 years from a range of journals and conference papers published in 2005–2014. Forty-six journal articles and 19 conference papers were selected for analysis. The results confirm our prediction that a high effect size for the seven pairs of relationships was obtained (ranging from r=0.386 to r=0.588). Furthermore, a meta-analytic structural equation modeling was performed to simultaneously test all relationships. The results show that habit had a significant positive effect on continuance intention at p<=0.05 and that the six other pairs of relationships were significant at p<0.10. Based on the findings, we refined our original research model and an alternative model was proposed for understanding and predicting information system continuance. Some theoretical implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Expectation-confirmation theory, Expectation-confirmation model, Meta-analysis, meta-analytic structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: T. Bouchabchoub, A. Bendahmane, A. Haouriqui, N. Attou

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This paper presents simulation results of Forex predicting model equations in order to give approximately a prevision of interest rates. First, Hall-Taylor (HT) equations have been used with Taylor rule (TR) to adapt them to European and American Forex Markets. Indeed, initial Taylor Rule equation is conceived for all Forex transactions in every States: It includes only one equation and six parameters. Here, the model has been used with Hall-Taylor equations, initially including twelve equations which have been reduced to only three equations. Analysis has been developed on the following base macroeconomic variables: Real change rate, investment wages, anticipated inflation, realized inflation, real production, interest rates, gap production and potential production. This model has been used to specifically study the impact of an inflation shock on macroeconomic director interest rates.

Keywords: interest rate, Forex, Taylor rule, production, European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve System (FED).

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Authors: H. Hotait, X. Chiementin, L. Rasolofondraibe

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This paper presents a continuous work to detect the abnormal state in the rolling bearing by studying the vibration signature analysis and calculation of the remaining useful life. To achieve these aims, two methods; the first method is the classification to detect the degradation state by the AOM-OPTICS (Acousto-Optic Modulator) method. The second one is the prediction of the degradation state using least-squares support vector regression and then compared with the linear degradation model. An experimental investigation on ball-bearing was conducted to see the effectiveness of the used method by applying the acquired vibration signals. The proposed model for predicting the state of bearing gives us accurate results with the experimental and numerical data.

Keywords: bearings, automatization, optimization, prognosis, classification, defect detection

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Authors: Israel Ibarra Solis, Juan Carlos Rodriguez Sierra, Ma. del Carmen Salazar Hernandez, Isis Rodriguez Sanchez, David Perez Guerrero

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At the present paper we try to explain the analysis techniques use for the lubricating oil in a maintenance period of a city bus (Mercedes Benz Boxer 40), which is call ‘R-24 route’, line Coecillo Centro SA de CV in Leon Guanajuato, to estimate the optimal time for the oil change. Using devices such as the rotational viscometer and the atomic absorption spectrometer, they can detect the incipient form when the oil loses its lubricating properties and, therefore, cannot protect the mechanical components of diesel engines such these trucks. Timely detection of lost property in the oil, it allows us taking preventive plan maintenance for the fleet.

Keywords: atomic absorption spectrometry, maintenance, predictive velocity rate, lubricating oils

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie

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This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure

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Authors: Srilaxmi Gangula, MahaLakshmi Vinukonda, Neeraj Rao

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A wide band polarization insensitive metamaterial absorber with bandwidth enhancement in X and C band is proposed. The structure proposed here consists of a periodic unit cell of resonator arrangements in double layer. The proposed structure shows near unity absorption at frequencies of 6.21 GHz and 10.372 GHz spreading over a bandwidth of 1 GHz and 6.21 GHz respectively in X and C bands. The proposed metamaterial absorber is designed so as to increase the bandwidth. The proposed structure is also independent for TE and TM polarization. Because of its simple implementation, near unity absorption and wide bandwidth this dual band polarization insensitive metamaterial absorber can be used for EMI/EMC applications.

Keywords: absorber, C-band, metamaterial, multilayer, X-band

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Authors: Venencia Albert, Arulselvi Subramanian, Hara Prasad Pati, Asok K. Mukhophadhyay

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Acute traumatic coagulopathy in an endogenous dysregulation of the intrinsic coagulation system in response to the injury, associated with three-fold risk of poor outcome, and is more amenable to corrective interventions, subsequent to early identification and management. Multiple definitions for stratification of the patients' risk for early acute coagulopathy have been proposed, with considerable variations in the defining criteria, including several trauma-scoring systems based on prehospital data. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant definition for acute coagulopathy of trauma based on conventional coagulation assays and to assess its efficacy in comparison to recently established prehospital prediction models. Methodology: Retrospective data of all trauma patients (n = 490) presented to our level I trauma center, in 2014, was extracted. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was done to establish cut-offs for conventional coagulation assays for identification of patients with acute traumatic coagulopathy was done. Prospectively data of (n = 100) adult trauma patients was collected and cohort was stratified by the established definition and classified as "coagulopathic" or "non-coagulopathic" and correlated with the Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score and Trauma-Induced Coagulopathy Clinical Score for identifying trauma coagulopathy and subsequent risk for mortality. Results: Data of 490 trauma patients (average age 31.85±9.04; 86.7% males) was extracted. 53.3% had head injury, 26.6% had fractures, 7.5% had chest and abdominal injury. Acute traumatic coagulopathy was defined as international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s. Of the 100 adult trauma patients (average age 36.5±14.2; 94% males), 63% had early coagulopathy based on our conventional coagulation assay definition. Overall prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score was 118.7±58.5 and trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score was 3(0-8). Both the scores were higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score 123.2±8.3 vs. 110.9±6.8, p-value = 0.31; trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score 4(3-8) vs. 3(0-8), p-value = 0.89), but not statistically significant. Overall mortality was 41%. Mortality rate was significantly higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (75.5% vs. 54.2%, p-value = 0.04). High prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score also significantly associated with mortality (134.2±9.95 vs. 107.8±6.82, p-value = 0.02), whereas trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score did not vary be survivors and non-survivors. Conclusion: Early coagulopathy was seen in 63% of trauma patients, which was significantly associated with mortality. Acute traumatic coagulopathy defined by conventional coagulation assays (international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s) demonstrated good ability to identify coagulopathy and subsequent mortality, in comparison to the prehospital parameter-based scoring systems. Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score may be more suited for predicting mortality rather than early coagulopathy. In emergency trauma situations, where immediate corrective measures need to be taken, complex multivariable scoring algorithms may cause delay, whereas coagulation parameters and conventional coagulation tests will give highly specific results.

Keywords: trauma, coagulopathy, prediction, model

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

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Authors: A. V. Shelke, P. S. More

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This research aimed to study the kinetic reaction of reused cooking oil and to find the optimum condition of its process. The feedstock was collected from the street sellers and also prepared at laboratory. From this research, it is found that the kinetic reaction of reused sunflower oil (auto-oxidation) is obtained in terms of variation of the absorption coefficient of unexposed sunflower oil as 0.05 which is very close to that of exposed sunflower oil 0.075. At room temperature, the optimum intensity obtained from optical absorption spectroscopy study is 0.267 for unexposed sunflower oil and 0.194 for exposed sunflower oil. However, results indicated that FTIR spectroscopy is accurate and precise enough for such determination. Free Fatty Acid (FFA% = 026), acid ~53% and safonication ~%192 get reduce in exposed oil was investigated.

Keywords: friction, oxidation, sunflower oil, vegetable oils

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Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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Authors: Vishant Gahlaut, A Mercy Latha, Sanjay Kumar Ghosh

Abstract:

Multi-stage depressed collectors (MDC) are used as an efficiency enhancement technique in traveling wave tubes the high-energy electron beam, after its interaction with the RF signal, gets velocity sorted and collected at various depressed electrodes of the MDC. The ultimate goal is to identify an optimum thermal management scheme (cooling mechanism) that could extract the heat efficiently from the electrodes. Careful thermal analysis, incorporating the cooling mechanism is required to ensure that the maximum temperature does not exceed the safe limits. A simple analytical model for quick prediction of the thermal has been developed. The model has been developed for the worst-case un-modulated DC condition, where all the thermal power is dissipated in the last electrode (typically, fourth electrode in the case of the four-stage depressed collector). It considers the thermal contact resistances at various braze joints accounting for the practical non-uniformities. Analytical results obtained from the model have been validated with simulated and experimental results.

Keywords: multi-stage depressed collector, TWTs, thermal contact resistance, thermal management

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Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

Abstract:

There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

Abstract:

Molecular solubility prediction plays a crucial role in various fields, such as drug discovery, environmental science, and material science. In this study, we compare the performance of five machine learning algorithms—linear regression, support vector machines (SVM), random forests, gradient boosting machines (GBM), and neural networks—for predicting molecular solubility using the AqSolDB dataset. The dataset consists of 9981 data points with their corresponding solubility values. MACCS keys (166 bits), RDKit properties (20 properties), and structural properties(3) features are extracted for every smile representation in the dataset. A total of 189 features were used for training and testing for every molecule. Each algorithm is trained on a subset of the dataset and evaluated using metrics accuracy scores. Additionally, computational time for training and testing is recorded to assess the efficiency of each algorithm. Our results demonstrate that random forest model outperformed other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving an 0.93 accuracy score. Gradient boosting machines and neural networks also exhibit strong performance, closely followed by support vector machines. Linear regression, while simpler in nature, demonstrates competitive performance but with slightly higher errors compared to ensemble methods. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the performance of machine learning algorithms for molecular solubility prediction, highlighting the importance of algorithm selection in achieving accurate and efficient predictions in practical applications.

Keywords: random forest, machine learning, comparison, feature extraction

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 137