Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: S. A. Al-Qallaf, S. A. Al-Mawsawi, A. Haider

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In order to evaluate the performance of a unified power flow controller (UPFC), mathematical models for steady state and dynamic analysis are to be developed. The steady state model is mainly concerned with the incorporation of the UPFC in load flow studies. Several load flow models for UPFC have been introduced in literature, and one of the most reliable models is the decoupled UPFC model. In spite of UPFC decoupled load flow model simplicity, it is more robust compared to other UPFC load flow models and it contains unique capabilities. Some shortcoming such as additional set of nonlinear equations are to be solved separately after the load flow solution is obtained. The aim of this study is to investigate the different control strategies that can be realized in the decoupled load flow model (individual control and combined control), and the impact of the location of the UPFC in the network on its control parameters.

Keywords: UPFC, decoupled model, load flow, control parameters

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Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

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Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

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Authors: Akinwumi Omotayo, Badu-B Apraku, Joseph Olobasola, Petra Abdul Saghir, Yinka Sobowale

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In southwestern Nigeria, climate change has led to loss of at least two months of rainfall. Consequently, only one cycle of maize can now be grown because of the shorter duration of rainy season as against two cycles in the past. The Early and Extra-early maturing varieties of maize were originally developed for the semi-arid and arid zones of West and Central Africa where there are seasonal challenges of water threatening optimum performance of the traditional maize grown, which are commonly late in maturity (115 to 120 days). The early varieties of maize mature in 90 to 95 days; while the Extra-Early maize varieties reach physiological maturity in less than 90 days. It was broadly hypothesized that the extra early varieties of maize could mitigate the effects of climate change in southwestern Nigeria with higher levels of rainfall by reinstating the original two cycles of rain-fed maize crop. Trials were therefore carried out in southwestern Nigeria on the possibility of adapting the extra early maize to mitigate the effects of climate change. The trial was the Mother/Baby design. The mother trial involves the evaluation of extra-early varieties following ideal recommendations and closely supervised centrally at the University research farm and the Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs). This requires farmers to observe and evaluate the technology and the management regime meant to precede the second stage of evaluation at several satellite farmers field managed by selected farmers. The Baby Trial is expected to provide a realistic assessment of the technology by farmers in their own environment. A stratified selection of thirty farmers for the Baby Trial ensured appropriate representation across the different categories of the farming population by age and gender. Data from the trials indicate that extra early maize can be grown in two cycles rain fed in south west Nigeria and a third and fourth cycle could be obtained with irrigation. However the long duration varieties outyielded the extra early maize in both the mother and baby trials. When harvested green, the extra early maize served as source of food between March and May when there was scarcity of food. This represents a major advantage. The study recommends that further work needs to be done to improve the yield of extra early maize to encourage farmers to adopt.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, extra early, maize varieties, mitigation

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Authors: Sana Ridene, Soumaya Sayeb, Houda Helali, Mohammed Ben Hassen

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Nonwoven structures have a range of applications which include Medical, filtration, geotextile and recently this unconventional fabric is finding a niche in fashion apparel. In this paper, a modified form of Vangheluwe rheological model is used to describe the mechanical behavior of nonwovens fabrics in uniaxial tension. This model is an association in parallel of three Maxwell elements characterized by damping coefficients η1, η2 and η3 and E1, E2, E3 elastic modulus and a nonlinear spring C. The model is verified experimentally with two types of nonwovens (50% viscose /50% Polyester) and (40% viscose/60% Polyester) and a range of three square weights values. Comparative analysis of the theoretical model and the experimental results of tensile test proofs a high correlation between them. The proposed model can fairly well replicate the behavior of nonwoven fabrics during relaxation and sample traction. This allowed us to predict the mechanical behavior in tension and relaxation of fabrics starting only from their technical parameters (composition and weight).

Keywords: mechanical behavior, tensile strength, relaxation, rheological model

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Authors: Nicolas Delcey, Philippe Baucour, Didier Chamagne, Geneviève Wimmer, Auditeau Gérard, Bausseron Thomas, Bouger Odile, Blanvillain Gérard

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This paper proposes a thermal study of the catenary/pantograph interface for a train in motion. A 2.5D complex model of the pantograph strip has been defined and created by a coupling between a 1D and a 2D model. Experimental and simulation results are presented and with a comparison allow validating the 2.5D model. Some physical phenomena are described and presented with the help of the model such as the stagger motion thermal effect, particular heats and the effect of the material characteristics. Finally it is possible to predict the critical thermal configuration during a train trip.

Keywords: electro-thermal studies, mathematical optimizations, multi-physical approach, numerical model, pantograph strip wear

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Authors: J. Fernandez de Canete, S. Fernandez-Calvo, I. García-Moral

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This paper presents and discusses the application of the object-oriented modelling software SIMSCAPE to hydraulic systems, with particular reference to multivariable proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. As a result, a particular modelling approach of a double cylinder-piston coupled system is proposed and motivated, and the SIMULINK based PID tuning tool has also been used to select the proper controller parameters. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the object-oriented approach when both physical modelling and control are tackled.

Keywords: object-oriented modeling, multivariable hydraulic system, multivariable PID control, computer simulation

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Authors: Yasser F. Hassan

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In this paper, a proposed model of cellular automata is studied by means of fractional integral function. A cellular automaton is a decentralized computing model providing an excellent platform for performing complex computation with the help of only local information. The paper discusses how using fractional integral function for representing cellular automata memory or state. The architecture of computing and learning model will be given and the results of calibrating of approach are also given.

Keywords: fractional integral, cellular automata, memory, learning

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Authors: Mitat Uysal

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A new met heuristic optimization algorithm called as Migrating Birds Optimization is used for curve fitting by rational cubic Bezier Curves. This requires solving a complicated multivariate optimization problem. In this study, the solution of this optimization problem is achieved by Migrating Birds Optimization algorithm that is a powerful met heuristic nature-inspired algorithm well appropriate for optimization. The results of this study show that the proposed method performs very well and being able to fit the data points to cubic Bezier Curves with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: algorithms, Bezier curves, heuristic optimization, migrating birds optimization

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Authors: Dilina Janadith Nawarathne

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This article presents the initial development of a communication model (Model_isi) as the means of gathering, preserving and transferring indigenous knowledge in the field of knowledge management. The article first discusses the need for an appropriate complimentary model for indigenous knowledge management which differs from the existing methods and models. Then the paper suggests the newly developed model for indigenous knowledge management which generate as result of blending key aspects of different disciplines, which can be implemented as a complementary approach for the existing scientific method. The paper further presents the effectiveness of the developed method in reflecting upon a pilot demonstration carried out on selected indigenous communities of Sri Lanka.

Keywords: indigenous knowledge management, knowledge transferring, tacit knowledge, research model, asian centric philosophy

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Authors: Pingshan Chen, Zhiliang Dong

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In order to estimate the post-construction settlement more objectively, the power-polynomial model is proposed, which can reflect the trend of settlement development based on the observed settlement data. It was demonstrated by an actual case history of an embankment, and during the prediction. Compared with the other three prediction models, the power-polynomial model can estimate the post-construction settlement more accurately with more simple calculation.

Keywords: prediction, model, post-construction settlement, soft ground

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Authors: Hamda Ajmal, Karen Young, Ruth Melia, John Bogue, Mary O'Sullivan, Jim Duggan, Hannah Wood

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The Covid-19 pandemic led to a range of public health mitigation strategies in order to suppress the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The drastic changes in everyday life due to lockdowns had the potential for a significant negative impact on public mental health, and a key public health goal is to now assess the evidence from available Irish datasets to provide useful insights on this issue. Text-50808 is an online text-based mental health support service, established in Ireland in 2020, and can provide a measure of revealed distress and mental health concerns across the population. The aim of this study is to explore statistical associations between public mental health in Ireland and the Covid-19 pandemic. Uniquely, this study combines two measures of emotional wellbeing in Ireland: (1) weekly text volume at Text-50808, and (2) emotional wellbeing indicators reported by respondents of the Amárach public opinion survey, carried out on behalf of the Department of Health, Ireland. For this analysis, a multivariate graphical exploratory data analysis (EDA) was performed on the Text-50808 dataset dated from 15th June 2020 to 30th June 2021. This was followed by time-series analysis of key mental health indicators including: (1) the percentage of daily/weekly texts at Text-50808 that mention Covid-19 related issues; (2) the weekly percentage of people experiencing anxiety, boredom, enjoyment, happiness, worry, fear and stress in Amárach survey; and Covid-19 related factors: (3) daily new Covid-19 case numbers; (4) daily stringency index capturing the effect of government non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Ireland. The cross-correlation function was applied to measure the relationship between the different time series. EDA of the Text-50808 dataset reveals significant peaks in the volume of texts on days prior to level 3 lockdown and level 5 lockdown in October 2020, and full level 5 lockdown in December 2020. A significantly high positive correlation was observed between the percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues and the percentage of respondents experiencing anxiety, worry and boredom (at a lag of 1 week) in Amárach survey data. There is a significant negative correlation between percentage of texts with Covid-19 related issues and percentage of respondents experiencing happiness in Amárach survey. Daily percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues to have a weak positive correlation with daily new Covid-19 cases in Ireland at a lag of 10 days and with daily stringency index of NPIs in Ireland at a lag of 2 days. The sudden peaks in text volume at Text-50808 immediately prior to new restrictions in Ireland indicate an association between a rise in mental health concerns following the announcement of new restrictions. There is also a high correlation between emotional wellbeing variables in the Amárach dataset and the number of weekly texts at Text-50808, and this confirms that Text-50808 reflects overall public sentiment. This analysis confirms the benefits of the texting service as a community surveillance tool for mental health in the population. This initial EDA will be extended to use multivariate modeling to predict the effect of additional Covid-19 related factors on public mental health in Ireland.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, data analysis, digital health, mental health, public health, digital health

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall

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Authors: R. Shamsi, F. Sharifi

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In this paper, we obtain the projection of inefficient units in data envelopment analysis (DEA) in the case of stochastic inputs and outputs using the multi-objective programming (MOP) structure. In some problems, the inputs might be stochastic while the outputs are deterministic, and vice versa. In such cases, we propose a multi-objective DEA-R model because in some cases (e.g., when unnecessary and irrational weights by the BCC model reduce the efficiency score), an efficient decision-making unit (DMU) is introduced as inefficient by the BCC model, whereas the DMU is considered efficient by the DEA-R model. In some other cases, only the ratio of stochastic data may be available (e.g., the ratio of stochastic inputs to stochastic outputs). Thus, we provide a multi-objective DEA model without explicit outputs and prove that the input-oriented MOP DEA-R model in the invariable return to scale case can be replaced by the MOP-DEA model without explicit outputs in the variable return to scale and vice versa. Using the interactive methods for solving the proposed model yields a projection corresponding to the viewpoint of the DM and the analyst, which is nearer to reality and more practical. Finally, an application is provided.

Keywords: DEA-R, multi-objective programming, stochastic data, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Begum Rokeya, Rahelee Zinnat, Fatema Jebunnesa, Israt Ara Hossain, A. Rahman

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Background and Aims: Arsenic in drinking water is a global environmental health problem, and the exposure may increase dyslipidemia and cerebrovascular diseases mortalities, most likely through causing atherosclerosis. However, the mechanism of lipid metabolism, atherosclerosis formation, arsenic exposure and impact in pregnancy is still unclear. Recent epidemiological evidences indicate close association between inorganic arsenic exposure via drinking water and Dyslipidemia. However, the exact mechanism of this arsenic-mediated increase in atherosclerosis risk factors remains enigmatic. We explore the association of the effect of arsenic on serum lipid profile in pregnant subjects. Methods: A total 200 pregnant mother screened in this study from arsenic exposed area. Our study group included 100 exposed subjects were cases and 100 Non exposed healthy pregnant were controls requited by a cross-sectional study. Clinical and anthropometric measurements were done by standard techniques. Lipidemic status was assessed by enzymatic endpoint method. Urinary As was measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and adjusted with specific gravity and Arsenic exposure was assessed by the level of urinary arsenic level > 100 μg/L was categorized as arsenic exposed and < 100 μg/L were categorized as non-exposed. Multivariate logistic regression and Student’s t - test was used for statistical analysis. Results: Systolic and diastolic blood pressure both were significantly higher in the Arsenic exposed pregnant subjects compared to the Non-exposed group (p<0.001). Arsenic exposed subjects had 2 times higher chance of developing hypertensive pregnancy (Odds Ratio 2.2). In parallel to the findings in Ar exposed subjects showed significantly higher proportion of triglyceride and total cholesterol and low density of lipo protein when compare to non- arsenic exposed pregnant subjects. Significant correlation of urinary arsenic level was also found with SBP, DBP, TG, T chol and serum LDL-Cholesterol. On multivariate logistic regression showed urinary arsenic had a positive association with DBP, SBP, Triglyceride and LDL-c. Conclusion: In conclusion, arsenic exposure may induce dyslipidemia like atherosclerosis through modifying reverse cholesterol transport in cholesterol metabolism. For decreasing atherosclerosis related mortality associated with arsenic, preventing exposure from environmental sources in early life is an important element.

Keywords: Arsenic Exposure, Dyslipidemia, Gestational Diabetes Mellitus, Serum lipid profile

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

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Authors: Abdur Rosyid, Mohamed El-Madany, Mohanad Alata

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Due to simplicity and low cost, rotordynamic system is often modeled by using lumped parameters. Recently, finite elements have been used to model rotordynamic system as it offers higher accuracy. However, it involves high degrees of freedom. In some applications such as control design, this requires higher cost. For this reason, various model reduction methods have been proposed. This work demonstrates the quality of model reduction of rotor-bearing-support system through substructuring. The quality of the model reduction is evaluated by comparing some first natural frequencies, modal damping ratio, critical speeds and response of both the full system and the reduced system. The simulation shows that the substructuring is proven adequate to reduce finite element rotor model in the frequency range of interest as long as the numbers and the locations of master nodes are determined appropriately. However, the reduction is less accurate in an unstable or nearly-unstable system.

Keywords: rotordynamic, finite element model, timoshenko beam, 3D solid elements, Guyan reduction method

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Authors: N. Naga Subrahmanyeswara Rao, Parag Arvind Deshpande

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Understanding nucleotide synthesis reaction of any organism is beneficial to know the growth of it as in Mycobacterium tuberculosis to design anti TB drug. One of the reactions of de novo pathway which takes place in all organisms was considered. The reaction takes places between phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate and orotate catalyzed by orotate phosphoribosyl transferase and divalent metal ion gives orotdine monophosphate, a nucleotide. All the reaction steps of three experimentally proposed mechanisms for this reaction were considered to develop kinetic rate expression. The model was validated using the data for four organisms. This model could successfully describe the kinetics for the reported data. The developed model can serve as a reliable model to describe the kinetics in new organisms without the need of mechanistic determination. So an organism-independent model was developed.

Keywords: mechanism, nucleotide, organism, tuberculosis

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Authors: C. Cohen, O. Levi

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This work introduces a generalization of the classical Tullock’s model of one-stage contests under complete information with multiple unlimited numbers of contestants. In classical Tullock’s model, the contest winner is not necessarily the highest bidder. Instead, the winner is determined according to a draw in which the winning probabilities are the relative contestants’ efforts. The Tullock modeling fits well political contests, in which the winner is not necessarily the highest effort contestant. This work presents a modified model which uses a simple non-discriminating rule, namely, a parameter to influence the total costs planned for an election, for example, the contest designer can control the contestants' efforts. The winner pays a fee, and the losers are reimbursed the same amount. Our proposed model includes a mechanism that controls the efforts exerted and balances competition, creating a tighter, less predictable and more interesting contest. Additionally, the proposed model follows the fairness criterion in the sense that it does not alter the contestants' probabilities of winning compared to the classic Tullock’s model. We provide an analytic solution for the contestant's optimal effort and expected reward.

Keywords: contests, Tullock's model, political elections, control expenses

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Authors: Deeksha Arora

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The study aims to explore the applicability of the widely used asset pricing models, namely, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French Four Factor Model in the Indian equity market. The study will be based on the companies that form part of the Nifty Fifty Index for a period of five years: 2011 to 2016. The asset pricing model is examined by forming portfolios on the basis of three variables – market capitalization (size effect), book-to-market equity ratio (value effect) and profitability. The study provides a basis to test the presence of the Fama-French Four factor model in Indian stock market. This study may provide a basis for future research in the generalized asset pricing model comprising of multiple risk factors.

Keywords: book to market equity, Fama French four factor model, market capitalization, profitability, size effect, value effect

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Authors: Abdellahi Cheikh

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With the emergence of quantum computers with very powerful capabilities, the security of the exchange of shared keys between two interlocutors poses a big problem in terms of the rapid development of technologies such as computing power and computing speed. Therefore, the Diffie-Hellmann (DH) algorithm is more vulnerable than ever. No mechanism guarantees the security of the key exchange, so if an intermediary manages to intercept it, it is easy to intercept. In this regard, several studies have been conducted to improve the security of key exchange between two interlocutors, which has led to interesting results. The modification made on our model Diffie-Hellman-RSA-AES (DRA), which encrypts the information exchanged between two users using the three-encryption algorithms DH, RSA and AES, by using stenographic photos to hide the contents of the p, g and ClesAES values that are sent in an unencrypted state at the level of DRA model to calculate each user's public key. This work includes a comparative study between the DRA model and all existing solutions, as well as the modification made to this model, with an emphasis on the aspect of reliability in terms of security. This study presents a simulation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the modification made to the DRA model. The obtained results show that our model has a security advantage over the existing solution, so we made these changes to reinforce the security of the DRA model.

Keywords: Diffie-Hellmann, DRA, RSA, advanced encryption standard

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Authors: Mehrzad Abdi Khalife, Iraj Mahdavi

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This paper presents the agile model for project management process. For project management process, the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) guideline has been selected as platform. Combination of computational science and artificial intelligent methodology has been added to the guideline to transfer the standard to agile project management process. The model is the combination of practical standard, computational science and artificial intelligent. In this model, we present communication model and protocols to keep process agile. Here, we illustrate the collaboration man and machine in project management area with artificial intelligent approach.

Keywords: artificial intelligent, conceptual model, man-machine collaboration, project management, standard

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Authors: Manoja Rajalakshmi Aravindakshana, Devleena Ghosha, Chittaranjan Mandala, K. V. Venkateshb, Jit Sarkarc, Partha Chakrabartic, Sujay K. Maity

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Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) is the primary test used to diagnose type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a clinical setting. Analysis of OGTT data using the Oral Minimal Model (OMM) along with the rate of appearance of ingested glucose (Ra) is performed to study differences in model parameters for control and T2DM groups. The differentiation of parameters of the model gives insight into the behaviour and physiology of T2DM. The model is also studied to find parameter differences among obese and non-obese T2DM subjects and the sensitive parameters were co-related to the known physiological findings. Sensitivity analysis is performed to understand changes in parameter values with model output and to support the findings, appropriate statistical tests are done. This seems to be the first preliminary application of the OMM with obesity as a distinguishing factor in understanding T2DM from estimated parameters of insulin-glucose model and relating the statistical differences in parameters to diabetes pathophysiology.

Keywords: oral minimal model, OGTT, obese and non-obese T2DM, mathematical modeling, parameter estimation

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Authors: Khaled Salah

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Model order reduction has been one of the most challenging topics in the past years. In this paper, a hybrid solution of genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing algorithm (SA) are used to approximate high-order transfer functions (TFs) to lower-order TFs. In this approach, hybrid algorithm is applied to model order reduction putting in consideration improving accuracy and preserving the properties of the original model which are two important issues for improving the performance of simulation and computation and maintaining the behavior of the original complex models being reduced. Compared to conventional mathematical methods that have been used to obtain a reduced order model of high order complex models, our proposed method provides better results in terms of reducing run-time. Thus, the proposed technique could be used in electronic design automation (EDA) tools.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, model reduction, transfer function

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Authors: Joachim F. Sartor

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According to German guidelines, external natural catchments are greater sub-catchments without significant portions of impervious areas, which possess a surface drainage system and empty in a sewer network. Basically, such catchments should be disconnected from sewer networks, particularly from combined systems. If this is not possible due to local conditions, their flow hydrographs have to be considered at the design of sewer systems, because the impact may be significant. Since there is a lack of sufficient measurements of storm-runoff events for such catchments and hence verified simulation methods to analyze their design flows, German standards give only general advices and demands special considerations in such cases. Compared to urban sub-catchments, external natural catchments exhibit greatly different flow characteristics. With increasing area size their hydrological behavior approximates that of rural catchments, e.g. sub-surface flow may prevail and lag times are comparable long. There are few observed peak flow values and simple (mostly empirical) approaches that are offered by literature for Central Europe. Most of them are at least helpful to crosscheck results that are achieved by simulation lacking calibration. Using storm-runoff data from five monitored rural watersheds in the west of Germany with catchment areas between 0.33 and 1.07 km2 , the author investigated by multiple event simulation three different approaches to determine the rainfall excess. These are the modified SCS variable run-off coefficient methods by Lutz and Zaiß as well as the soil moisture model by Ostrowski. Selection criteria for storm events from continuous precipitation data were taken from recommendations of M 165 and the runoff concentration method (parallel cascades of linear reservoirs) from a DWA working report to which the author had contributed. In general, the two run-off coefficient methods showed results that are of sufficient accuracy for most practical purposes. The soil moisture model showed no significant better results, at least not to such a degree that it would justify the additional data collection that its parameter determination requires. Particularly typical convective summer events after long dry periods, that are often decisive for sewer networks (not so much for rivers), showed discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs.

Keywords: external natural catchments, sewer network design, storm-runoff modelling, urban drainage

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Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

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We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

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Authors: Sandra Adarve, Jhon Osorio

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Uncertainty has been studied in patients with different types of cancer, except in patients with hematologic cancer and undergoing transplantation. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with uncertainty in adults patients with malignant hemato-oncology diseases who are scheduled to undergo hematopoietic stem cell transplantation based on Merle Mishel´s Uncertainty theory. This was a cross-sectional study with an analytical purpose. The study sample included 50 patients with leukemia, myeloma, and lymphoma selected by non-probability sampling by convenience and intention. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were measured. Mishel´s Scale of Uncertainty in Illness was used for the measurement of uncertainty. A bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the relationships and associations between the different variables and uncertainty level. For this analysis, the distribution of the uncertainty scale values was evaluated through the Shapiro-Wilk normality test to identify statistical tests to be used. A multivariate analysis was conducted through a logistic regression using step-by-step technique. Patients were 18-74 years old, with a mean age of 44.8. Over time, the disease course had a median of 9.5 months, an opportunity was found in the performance of the transplantation of < 20 days for 50% of the patients. Regarding the uncertainty scale, a mean score of 95.46 was identified. When the dimensions of the scale were analyzed, the mean score of the framework of stimuli was 25.6, of cognitive ability was 47.4 and structure providers was 22.8. Age was identified to correlate with the total uncertainty score (p=0.012). Additionally, a statistically significant difference was evidenced between different religious creeds and uncertainty score (p=0.023), education level (p=0.012), family history of cancer (p=0.001), the presence of comorbidities (p=0.023) and previous radiotherapy treatment (p=0.022). After performing logistic regression, previous radiotherapy treatment (OR=0.04 IC95% (0.004-0.48)) and family history of cancer (OR=30.7 IC95% (2.7-349)) were found to be factors associated with the high level of uncertainty. Uncertainty is present in high levels in patients who are going to be subjected to bone marrow transplantation, and it is the responsibility of the nurse to assess the levels of uncertainty and the presence of factors that may contribute to their presence. Once it has been valued, the uncertainty must be intervened from the identified associated factors, especially all those that have to do with the cognitive capacity. This implies the implementation and design of intervention strategies to improve the knowledge related to the disease and the therapeutic procedures to which the patients will be subjected. All interventions should favor the adaptation of these patients to their current experience and contribute to seeing uncertainty as an opportunity for growth and transcendence.

Keywords: hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, hematologic diseases, nursing, uncertainty

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Authors: N. V. Kuznetsov, O. A. Kuznetsova, G. A. Leonov, M. V. Yuldashev, R. V. Yuldashev

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Nonlinear analysis of the phase locked loop (PLL)-based circuits is a challenging task. Thus, the simulation is widely used for their study. In this work, we consider a mathematical model of the optical Costas loop and demonstrate the limitations of simulation approach related to the existence of so-called hidden oscillations in the phase space of the model.

Keywords: optical Costas loop, mathematical model, simulation, hidden oscillation

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Authors: Karina Oborune

Abstract:

International student mobility involves a unique spatio-temporal context and exploring the various aspects of mobile students’ experience can lead to new findings within identity studies. The previous studies have mainly focused on student mobility within Europe and its impact on European identity arguing that students who participate in intra-European mobility already feel European before exchange. Contrary to previous studies, in this paper student mobility is analyzed from different point of view. In order to see whether a true Europeanization of identities is taking place, it is necessary to contrast European identity with alternative supranational identity which could similarly result from student mobility and in particular a global identity. Besides, in the paper there is explored whether geographical constellation (host country continental location during mobility- Europe vs. outside of Europe) plays a role. Based on newly developed model of multicultural, social and socio-demographic variables there is argued that after intra-European mobility only global identity of students could be increased (H1), but the mobility to countries outside of Europe causes changes in European identity (H2). The quantitative study (survey, n=1440, 22 higher education institutions, experimental group of former and future/potential mobile students and control group of non-mobile students) was held in Switzerland where is equally high number of students who participate in intra-European and outside of Europe mobility. The results of multivariate linear regression showed that students who participate in exchange in Europe increase their European identity due to having close friends from Europe, as well as due to length of the mobility experience had impact, but students who participate in exchange outside of Europe increase their global identity due to having close friends from outside of Europe and proficiency in foreign languages.

Keywords: student mobility, European identity, global identity, global identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 724

Authors: H. Agbaria, A. Salman, M. Huleihel, G. Beck, D. H. Rich, S. Mordechai, J. Kapelushnik

Abstract:

Viral and bacterial infections are responsible for variety of diseases. These infections have similar symptoms like fever, sneezing, inflammation, vomiting, diarrhea and fatigue. Thus, physicians may encounter difficulties in distinguishing between viral and bacterial infections based on these symptoms. Bacterial infections differ from viral infections in many other important respects regarding the response to various medications and the structure of the organisms. In many cases, it is difficult to know the origin of the infection. The physician orders a blood, urine test, or 'culture test' of tissue to diagnose the infection type when it is necessary. Using these methods, the time that elapses between the receipt of patient material and the presentation of the test results to the clinician is typically too long ( > 24 hours). This time is crucial in many cases for saving the life of the patient and for planning the right medical treatment. Thus, rapid identification of bacterial and viral infections in the lab is of great importance for effective treatment especially in cases of emergency. Blood was collected from 50 patients with confirmed viral infection and 50 with confirmed bacterial infection. White blood cells (WBCs) and plasma were isolated and deposited on a zinc selenide slide, dried and measured under a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) microscope to obtain their infrared absorption spectra. The acquired spectra of WBCs and plasma were analyzed in order to differentiate between the two types of infections. In this study, the potential of FTIR microscopy in tandem with multivariate analysis was evaluated for the identification of the agent that causes the human infection. The method was used to identify the infectious agent type as either bacterial or viral, based on an analysis of the blood components [i.e., white blood cells (WBC) and plasma] using their infrared vibrational spectra. The time required for the analysis and evaluation after obtaining the blood sample was less than one hour. In the analysis, minute spectral differences in several bands of the FTIR spectra of WBCs were observed between groups of samples with viral and bacterial infections. By employing the techniques of feature extraction with linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a sensitivity of ~92 % and a specificity of ~86 % for an infection type diagnosis was achieved. The present preliminary study suggests that FTIR spectroscopy of WBCs is a potentially feasible and efficient tool for the diagnosis of the infection type.

Keywords: viral infection, bacterial infection, linear discriminant analysis, plasma, white blood cells, infrared spectroscopy

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Authors: Julio Kauss, Miguel Cadillo, David Mauricio

Abstract:

E-commerce is a business model that allows companies to optimize the processes of buying, selling, transferring goods and exchanging services through computer networks or the Internet. In Peru, the electronic commerce is used infrequently. This situation is due, in part to the fact that there is no model that allows companies to implement an e-commerce solution, which means that most SMEs do not have adequate knowledge to adapt to electronic commerce. In this work, a reference model is proposed for the implementation of an e-commerce solution in Peruvian SMEs in the retail sector. It consists of five phases: Business Analysis, Business Modeling, Implementation, Post Implementation and Results. The present model was validated in a SME of the Peruvian retail sector through the implementation of an electronic commerce platform, through which the company increased its sales through the delivery channel by 10% in the first month of deployment. This result showed that the model is easy to implement, is economical and agile. In addition, it allowed the company to increase its business offer, adapt to e-commerce and improve customer loyalty.

Keywords: e-commerce, retail, SMEs, reference model

Procedia PDF Downloads 311