Search results for: direct impacts
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5999

Search results for: direct impacts

5159 How Natural Environments Are Being Used by Teachers to Improve Student Learning and Wellbeing in Australia

Authors: Jade Fersterer, Tristan Snell, Mark Rickinson

Abstract:

This paper is designed to provide a review of the literature concerning the impact of natural environments on student learning and wellbeing in Australia. Specific areas of interest include how child-led and teacher-led pedagogies differ in outdoor learning settings, and the impact of each approach on children’s well-being, behavior, relationships with others as well as educational outcomes. The review will include links to possibilities for future research, including a Ph.D. currently being undertaken in Australia, which aims to fulfill a considerable gap in psychological, educational and outdoor learning research, regarding how natural environments are being used by teachers to improve learning and wellbeing among primary school students. The proposed study aims to understand if children’s experience of learning, 1. in a natural environment, and 2. in a child-led way, can support and strengthen their skills across several areas of development, including those required for positive educational outcomes. Data will be collected from a sample of primary school students and teachers via both quantitative and qualitative methods, including a pre- and post-questionnaire, direct observation, and semi-structured interviews. The study will have valuable implications for the provision of quality education as well as the promotion of good health and wellbeing. The implications of the research will be useful not only for teachers and parents but also for Psychologists working with children and young people in both a school and clinical setting. Understanding the impacts and implications of child-led learning and exposure to natural environments provides the opportunity to build on the current school curriculum. The inclusion of child-led experiences in nature may provide a simple way to build enthusiasm for school and learning, cultivating skills for life and relationships as well as meeting current curriculum requirements and building capacity for ongoing academic pursuits. In addition, understanding the impact of learning in a natural environment on wellbeing will assist in the development and dissemination of an educational model that could help mitigate the negative health outcomes associated with reduced physical activity and decreasing contact with nature among children.

Keywords: child-led learning, educational outcomes, natural environments, wellbeing

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5158 Study of Suezmax Shuttle Tanker Energy Efficiency for Operations at the Brazilian Pre-Salt Region

Authors: Rodrigo A. Schiller, Rubens C. Da Silva, Kazuo Nishimoto, Claudio M. P. Sampaio

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The need to reduce fossil fuels consumption due to the current scenario of trying to restrain global warming effects and reduce air pollution is dictating a series of transformations in shipping. This study introduces, at first, the changes of the regulatory framework concerning gas emissions control and fuel consumption efficiency on merchant ships. Secondly, the main operational procedures with high potential reduction of fuel consumption are discussed, with focus on existing vessels, using ship speed reduction procedure. This procedure shows the positive impacts on both operating costs reduction and also on energy efficiency increase if correctly applied. Finally, a numerical analysis of the fuel consumption variation with the speed was carried out for a Suezmax class oil tanker, which has been adapted to oil offloading operations for FPSOs in Brazilian offshore oil production systems. In this analysis, the discussions about the variations of vessel energy efficiency from small speed rate reductions and the possible applications of this improvement, taking into account the typical operating profile of the vessel in such a way to have significant economic impacts on the operation. This analysis also evaluated the application of two different numerical methods: one based only on regression equations produced by existing data, semi-empirical method, and another using a CFD simulations for estimating the hull shape parameters that are most relevant for determining fuel consumption, analyzing inaccuracies and impact on the final results.

Keywords: energy efficiency, offloading operations, speed reduction, Suezmax oil tanker

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5157 Simulation of Lean Principles Impact in a Multi-Product Supply Chain

Authors: Matteo Rossini, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

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The market competition is moving from the single firm to the whole supply chain one because of increasing competition and growing need for operational efficiencies and customer orientation. Supply chain management allows companies to look beyond their organizational boundaries to develop and leverage resources and capabilities of their supply chain partners. This leads to create competitive advantages in the marketplace and because of this SCM has acquired strategic importance. Lean Approach is a management strategy that focuses on reducing every type of waste present in an organization. This approach is becoming more and more popular among supply chain managers. The supply chain application of lean approach is low diffused. It is not well studied which are the impacts of lean approach principles in a supply chain context. In literature there are only few studies simulating the lean approach performance in single products supply chain. This research work studies the impacts of lean principles implementation along a supply chain. To achieve this, a simulation model of a three-echelon multiproduct product supply chain has been built. Kanban system (and several priority policies) and setup time reduction degrees are implemented in the lean-configured supply chain to apply pull and lot-sizing decrease principles respectively. To evaluate the benefits of lean approach, lean supply chain is compared with an EOQ-configured supply chain. The simulation results show that Kanban system and setup-time reduction improve inventory stock level. They also show that logistics efforts are affected to lean implementation degree. The paper concludes describing performances of lean supply chain in different contexts.

Keywords: inventory policy, Kanban, lean supply chain, simulation study, supply chain management, planning

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5156 Effect of Annealing on Electrodeposited ZnTe Thin Films in Non-Aqueous Medium

Authors: Shyam Ranjan Kumar, Shashikant Rajpal

Abstract:

Zinc Telluride (ZnTe) is a binary II-VI direct band gap semiconducting material. This semiconducting material has several applications in sensors, photo-electrochemical devices and photovoltaic solar cell. In this study, Zinc telluride (ZnTe) thin films were deposited on nickel substrate by electrodeposition technique using potentiostat/galvanostat at -0.85 V using AR grade of Zinc Chloride (ZnCl2), Tellurium Tetrachloride (TeCl4) in non-aqueous bath. The developed films were physically stable and showed good adhesion. The as deposited ZnTe films were annealed at 400ºC in air. The solid state properties and optical properties of the as deposited and annealed films were carried out by XRD, EDS, SEM, AFM, UV–Visible spectrophotometer, and photoluminescence spectrophotometer. The diffraction peak observed at 2θ = 49.58° with (111) plane indicate the crystalline nature of ZnTe film. Annealing improves the crystalline nature of the film. Compositional analysis reveals the presence of Zn and Te with tellurium rich ZnTe film. SEM photograph at 10000X shows that grains of film are spherical in nature and densely distributed over the surface. The average roughness of the film is measured by atomic force microscopy and it is nearly equal to 60 nm. The direct wide band gap of 2.12 eV is observed by UV-Vis spectroscopy. Luminescence peak of the ZnTe films are also observed in as deposited and annealed case.

Keywords: annealing, electrodeposition, optical properties, thin film, XRD, ZnTe

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5155 Eco-Hammam Initiative: Replicating the FSAC Model for Sustainable Wastewater Treatment and Resource Reuse in Dar Bouazza, Morocco

Authors: Nihad Chakri, Btissam El Amrani, Faouzi Berrada, Halima Jounaid, Fouad Amraoui

Abstract:

In the context of the increasing water resource scarcity in Morocco in recent years, the use of unconventional resources has become imperative. Although efforts have been made in the field of sanitation in urban areas, rural areas, due to their specificities, such as scattered dwellings and limited accessibility, suffer from a lack of basic infrastructure. This work focuses on replicating the Faculty of Sciences Ain Chock (FSAC) model for the treatment and reuse of wastewater from a peri-urban traditional hammam in Casablanca, specifically in the municipality of Dar Bouazza. This initiative is part of the Eco-Hammam project, which aims to minimize the negative impacts of traditional hammams in terms of irrational and uncontrolled consumption of water and wood energy resources. To achieve this, a comprehensive environmental diagnosis of all hammams in the municipality of Dar Bouazza, our study site, has been undertaken. Then, a feasibility study is also conducted to assess the possibility of replicating the FSAC mini-station to treat the wastewater of the selected pilot hammam, namely, My Yacoub II.

Keywords: water resource scarcity, unconventional resources, sanitation, per-urban areas, rural areas, basic infrastructure, replication, reuse of wastewater, traditional hammam, Casablanca, Municipality of Dar Bouazza, negative impacts, environmental diagnosis, feasibility study, pilot hammam, My Yacoub II

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5154 The Nature and Impacts of 2015 Indian Unofficial Blockade in Nepal

Authors: Jhabakhar Aryal, Kesh Bahadur Rana, Durga Prasad Neupane

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This research analyzes the nature and impacts of the 2015 unofficial blockade in Nepal, a significant event that triggered an economic and humanitarian crisis. While official channels denied claims of involvement, Nepal perceived the blockade as orchestrated by India due to concerns about the newly adopted constitution and Madheshi infringements. The study adopts a qualitative approach, utilizing semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and content analysis to gather data from various perspectives. Employing a "colonial hangover lens," it investigates if colonial legacies continue to influence postcolonial nation dynamics, focusing on India's potential attempt to exert influence over Nepal. The findings suggest that the 2015 blockade had profound consequences for Nepal, potentially reflecting lingering colonial power dynamics in the region. Despite India's denials, a significant portion of Nepalis perceived the blockade as an act of external pressure. Examining these perceptions offers valuable insights into postcolonial relations and their impact on regional stability. The 2015 unofficial blockade serves as a critical case study in understanding the complex interplay of internal dynamics, external influences, and historical legacies in shaping the geopolitics of the region. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of these factors and their ongoing implications for Nepal and its relationship with India.

Keywords: blockade, unofficial, constitution, Madhesis, India, Nepal, postcolonial, regional stability, geopolitics

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5153 The Vulnerability of a Small, Open Economy in a Situation of Global Fiscal Crisis: The Impact of the Greek Debt Crisis on the Foreign Direct Investments to Macedonia

Authors: Viktorija Mano

Abstract:

The objective of my research is to critique the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stance on foreign investment and the benefits for small, open economies of allowing the free movement of capital. In my research as a whole I will explore the extent to which this stance impacted upon and influenced the economic policies of Macedonia. This will involve providing a contextualized, critical account of the policy of the IMF focusing on a comparison of its policies during the early 2000s through policy documents, political discourse and enacted policies in Macedonia. The conditionality associated with these policies, such as the enforcement of austerity measures (including cutting public spending and reducing debt) and the privatization of public institutions has provoked strong reactions in countries which receive such loans. My main focus in my research is on exploring how the process of Financial Liberalization (FL) of the Macedonian economy affected capital flows in the form of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the private sector and how the recent Greek crisis of 2008 has impacted on this. In the case of Macedonia, the reality of FL was tested by the collapse of the Greek economy. However, this paper will highlight the main duties of the IMF and the goals of the FL process implemented in various countries.Additionally, I will undertake a rhetorical documentary analysis on the IMF reports regarding the process of FL in Macedonia since its independence until today.

Keywords: FDI, financial liberalization, Greece, IMF, Macedonia

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5152 Effect of Two Different Method for Juice Processing on the Anthocyanins and Polyphenolics of Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum)

Authors: Onur Ercan, Buket Askin, Erdogan Kucukoner

Abstract:

Blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum, bluegold) has become popular beverage due to their nutritional values such as vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants. In the study, the effects of pressing, mashing, enzymatic treatment, and pasteurization on anthocyanins, colour, and polyphenolics of blueberry juice (BJ) were studied. The blueberry juice (BJ) was produced with two different methods that direct juice extraction (DJE) and mash treatment process (MTP) were applied. After crude blueberry juice (CBJ) production, the samples were first treated with commercial enzymes [Novoferm-61 (Novozymes A/S) (2–10 mL/L)], to break down the hydrocolloid polysaccharides, mainly pectin and starch. The enzymes were added at various concentrations. The highest transmittance (%) was obtained for Novoferm-61 at a concentration of 2 mL/L was 66.53%. After enzymatic treatment, clarification trials were applied to the enzymatically treated BJs with adding various amounts of bentonite (10%, w/v), gelatin (1%, w/v) and kiselsol (15%, v/v). The turbidities of the clarified samples were then determined. However, there was no significant differences between transmittances (%) for samples. For that, only enzymatic treatment was applied to the blueberry juice processing (DDBJ, depectinized direct blueberry juice). Based on initial pressing process made to evaluate press function, it was determined that pressing fresh blueberries with no other processing did not render adequate juice due to lack of liquefaction. Therefore, the blueberries were mash into small pieces (3 mm) and then enzymatic treatments and clarification trials were performed. Finally, both BJ samples were pasteurized. Compositional analyses, colour properties, polyphenols and antioxidant properties were compared. Enzymatic treatment caused significant reductions in ACN content (30%) in Direct Blueberry Juice Processing (DBJ), while there was a significant increasing in Mash Treatment Processing (MTP). Overall anthocyanin levels were higher intreated samples after each processing step in MTP samples, but polyphenolic levels were slightly higher for both processes (DBJ and MTP). There was a reduction for ACNs and polyphenolics only after pasteurization. It has a result that the methods for tried to blueberry juice is suitable into obtain fresh juice. In addition, we examined fruit juice during processing stages; anthocyanin, phenolic substance content and antioxidant activity are higher, and yield is higher in fruit juice compared to DBJ method in MTP method, the MTP method should be preferred in processing juice of blueberry into fruit juice.

Keywords: anthocyanins, blueberry, depectinization, polyphenols

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5151 Seasonal and Monthly Field Soil Respiration Rate and Litter Fall Amounts of Kasuga-Yama Hill Primeval Forest

Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

The seasonal (January, April, July and October) and monthly soil respiration rate and the monthly litter fall amounts were examined in the laurel-leaved (B_B-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (B_B-2 and PW) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The change of the seasonal soil respiration rate corresponded to that of the soil temperature. The soil respiration rate was higher in October when fresh organic matter was supplied in the forest floor than in April in spite of the same temperature. The seasonal soil respiration rate of B_B-1 was higher than that of B_B-2, which corresponded to more numbers of bacteria and fungi counted by the dilution plate method and by the direct count method by microscopy in B_B-1 than that of B_B-2. The seasonal soil respiration rate of B_B-2 was higher than that of PW, which corresponded to more microbial biomass by the direct count method by microscopy in B_B-2 than that of PW. The correlation coefficient with the seasonal soil respiration and the soil temperature was higher than that of the monthly soil respiration. The soil respiration carbon was more than the litter fall carbon. It was suggested that the soil respiration included in the carbon dioxide which was emitted by the plant root and soil animal, or that the litter fall supplied to the forest floor included in animal and plant litter.

Keywords: field soil respiration rate, forest soil, litter fall, mineralization rate

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5150 Optimizing Groundwater Pumping for a Complex Groundwater/Surface Water System

Authors: Emery A. Coppola Jr., Suna Cinar, Ferenc Szidarovszky

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Over-pumping of groundwater resources is a serious problem world-wide. In addition to depleting this valuable resource, hydraulically connected sensitive ecological resources like wetlands and surface water bodies are often impacted and even destroyed by over-pumping. Effectively managing groundwater in a way that satisfy human demand while preserving natural resources is a daunting challenge that will only worsen with growing human populations and climate change. As presented in this paper, a numerical flow model developed for a hypothetical but realistic groundwater/surface water system was combined with formal optimization. Response coefficients were used in an optimization management model to maximize groundwater pumping in a complex, multi-layered aquifer system while protecting against groundwater over-draft, streamflow depletion, and wetland impacts. Pumping optimization was performed for different constraint sets that reflect different resource protection preferences, yielding significantly different optimal pumping solutions. A sensitivity analysis on the optimal solutions was performed on select response coefficients to identify differences between wet and dry periods. Stochastic optimization was also performed, where uncertainty associated with changing irrigation demand due to changing weather conditions are accounted for. One of the strengths of this optimization approach is that it can efficiently and accurately identify superior management strategies that minimize risk and adverse environmental impacts associated with groundwater pumping under different hydrologic conditions.

Keywords: numerical groundwater flow modeling, water management optimization, groundwater overdraft, streamflow depletion

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5149 From Bureaucracy to Organizational Learning Model: An Organizational Change Process Study

Authors: Vania Helena Tonussi Vidal, Ester Eliane Jeunon

Abstract:

This article aims to analyze the change processes of management related bureaucracy and learning organization model. The theoretical framework was based on Beer and Nohria (2001) model, identified as E and O Theory. Based on this theory the empirical research was conducted in connection with six key dimensions: goal, leadership, focus, process, reward systems and consulting. We used a case study of an educational Institution located in Barbacena, Minas Gerais. This traditional center of technical knowledge for long time adopted the bureaucratic way of management. After many changes in a business model, as the creation of graduate and undergraduate courses they decided to make a deep change in management model that is our research focus. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews with director, managers and courses supervisors. The analysis were processed by the procedures of Collective Subject Discourse (CSD) method, develop by Lefèvre & Lefèvre (2000), Results showed the incremental growing of management model toward a learning organization. Many impacts could be seeing. As negative factors we have: people resistance; poor information about the planning and implementation process; old politics inside the new model and so on. Positive impacts are: new procedures in human resources, mainly related to manager skills and empowerment; structure downsizing, open discussions channel; integrated information system. The process is still under construction and now great stimulus is done to managers and employee commitment in the process.

Keywords: bureaucracy, organizational learning, organizational change, E and O theory

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5148 A Concept to Assess the Economic Importance of the On-Site Activities of ETICS

Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: activity-based cost estimating, cost estimation, ETICS, life cycle costing

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5147 Business Marketing Researches and Analysis Effect on Production

Authors: Mirna John Shawky Demian

Abstract:

Mobile phones are now one of the direct marketing tools used to reach hard-to-reach consumers. Cell phones are very personal devices that you can carry with you anytime, anywhere. This gives marketers the ability to create personalized marketing messages and send them at the right time and place. The study examined consumer attitudes towards mobile marketing, particularly SMS marketing. Unlike similar studies, this study does not focus on young people, but the field study included consumers between the ages of 18 and 70.The results showed that the majority of participants found SMS marketing destructive. The biggest problem with SMS marketing is subscribing to message lists without the recipient's consent; large number of messages sent; and the irrelevance of message content. Experiential marketing is an unforgettable experience that remains deeply anchored in the customer's memory. Furthermore, customer satisfaction is defined as the emotional response to the experience provided to the customer in relation to specific products or services purchased. Therefore, experiential marketing activities can influence the level of customer satisfaction and loyalty.In this context, the study aims to examine the relationship between experiential marketing, customer satisfaction and loyalty to beauty products in Konya. The results of this study showed that experiential marketing is an important indicator of customer satisfaction and loyalty and that experiential marketing has a significant positive impact on customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Keywords: direct marketing, mobile phones mobile marketing, sms advertising, marketing sponsorship, marketing communication theories, marketing communication tools

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5146 Chronic Cognitive Impacts of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury during Aging

Authors: Camille Charlebois-Plante, Marie-Ève Bourassa, Gaelle Dumel, Meriem Sabir, Louis De Beaumont

Abstract:

To the extent of our knowledge, there has been little interest in the chronic effects of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) on cognition during normal aging. This is rather surprising considering the impacts on daily and social functioning. In addition, sustaining a mTBI during late adulthood may increase the effect of normal biological aging in individuals who consider themselves normal and healthy. The objective of this study was to characterize the persistent neuropsychological repercussions of mTBI sustained during late adulthood, on average 12 months prior to testing. To this end, 35 mTBI patients and 42 controls between the ages of 50 and 69 completed an exhaustive neuropsychological assessment lasting three hours. All mTBI patients were asymptomatic and all participants had a score ≥ 27 at the MoCA. The evaluation consisted of 20 standardized neuropsychological tests measuring memory, attention, executive and language functions, as well as information processing speed. Performance on tests of visual (Brief Visuospatial Memory Test Revised) and verbal memory (Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test and WMS-IV Logical Memory subtest), lexical access (Boston Naming Test) and response inhibition (Stroop) revealed to be significantly lower in the mTBI group. These findings suggest that a mTBI sustained during late adulthood induces lasting effects on cognitive function. Episodic memory and executive functions seem to be particularly vulnerable to enduring mTBI effects.

Keywords: cognitive function, late adulthood, mild traumatic brain injury, neuropsychology

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5145 Analysis of Maize Yield under Climate Change, Adaptations in Varieties and Planting Date in Northeast China in Recent Thirty Years

Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang

Abstract:

The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2-0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53-2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts

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5144 Relationship between the Ability of Accruals and Non-Systematic Risk of Shares for Companies Listed in Stock Exchange: Case Study, Tehran

Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

Abstract:

The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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5143 Gastronomy: The preferred Digital Business Models and Impacts in Business Economics within Hospitality, Tourism, and Catering Sectors through Online Commerce

Authors: John Oupa Hlatshwayo

Abstract:

Background: There seem to be preferred digital business models with varying impacts within hospitality, tourism and catering sub-sectors explored through online commerce, as all are ingrained in the business economics domain. Aim: A study aims to establish if such phenomena (Digital Business Models) exist and to what extent if any, within the hospitality, tourism and catering industries, respectively. Setting: This is a qualitative study conducted by exploring several (Four) institutions globally through Case Studies. Method: This research explored explanatory case studies to answer questions about ‘how’ or ’why’ with little control by a researcher over the occurrence of events. It is qualitative research, deductive, and inductive methods. Hence, a comprehensive approach to analyzing qualitative data was attainable through immersion by reading to understand the information. Findings: The results corroborated the notion that digital business models are applicable, by and large, in business economics. Thus, three sectors wherein enterprises operate in the business economics sphere have been narrowed down i.e. hospitality, tourism and catering, are also referred to as triangular polygons due to the atypical nature of being ‘stand-alone’, yet ‘sub-sectors’, but there are confounding factors to consider. Conclusion: The significance of digital business models and digital transformation shows an inevitable merger between business and technology within Hospitality, Tourism, and Catering. Contribution: Such symbiotic relationship of business and technology, persistent evolution of clients’ interface with end-products, forever changing market, current adaptation as well as adjustment to ‘new world order’ by enterprises must be embraced constantly without fail by Business Practitioners, Academics, Business Students, Organizations and Governments.

Keywords: digital business models, hospitality, tourism, catering, business economics

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5142 Designing Financing Schemes to Make Forest Management Units Work in Aceh Province, Indonesia

Authors: Riko Wahyudi, Rezky Lasekti Wicaksono, Ayu Satya Damayanti, Ridhasepta Multi Kenrosa

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Implementing Forest Management Unit (FMU) is considered as the best solution for forest management in developing countries. However, when FMU has been formed, many parties then blame the FMU and assume it is not working on. Currently, there are two main issues that make FMU not be functional i.e. institutional and financial issues. This paper is addressing financial issues to make FMUs in Aceh Province can be functional. A mixed financing scheme is proposed here, both direct and indirect financing. The direct financing scheme derived from two components i.e. public funds and businesses. Non-tax instruments of intergovernmental fiscal transfer (IFT) system and FMU’s businesses are assessed. Meanwhile, indirect financing scheme is conducted by assessing public funds within villages around forest estate as about 50% of total villages in Aceh Province are located surrounding forest estate. Potential instruments under IFT system are forest and mining utilization royalties. In order to make these instruments become direct financing for FMU, interventions on allocation and distribution aspects of them are conducted. In the allocation aspect, alteration in proportion of allocation is required as the authority to manage forest has shifted from district to province. In the distribution aspect, Government of Aceh can earmark usage of the funds for FMUs. International funds for climate change also encouraged to be domesticated and then channeled through these instruments or new instrument under public finance system in Indonesia. Based on FMU’s businesses both from forest products and forest services, FMU can impose non-tax fees for each forest product and service utilization. However, for doing business, the FMU need to be a Public Service Agency (PSA). With this status, FMU can directly utilize the non-tax fees without transferring them to the state treasury. FMU only need to report the fees to Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, indirect financing scheme is conducted by empowering villages around forest estate as villages in Aceh Province is receiving average village fund of IDR 800 million per village in 2017 and the funds will continue to increase in subsequent years. These schemes should be encouraged in parallel to establish a mixed financing scheme in order to ensure sustainable financing for FMU in Aceh Province, Indonesia.

Keywords: forest management, public funds, mixed financing, village

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5141 A Pragma-Rhetorical Study of Christian Religious Pentecostal Sermons in Nigeria

Authors: Samuel Alaba Akinwotu

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Effectiveness in communication requires the deployment of pragmatic and rhetorical strategies in religious sermons. In spite of high volume of works in religious discourse, scholars have not adequately accounted for the persuasive and argumentation strategies employed in Christian religious Pentecostal sermons. This study examines communicative intentions and the pragma-rhetorical strategies deployed to maintain balance and effectiveness in selected sermons of Pastor E. A. Adeboye, Bishop D. Oyedepo and Pastor W. F. Kumuyi. Fifteen sermons, delivered orally and transcribed into the written mode, were selected and analysed using Jacob Mey’s theory of pragmeme, Aristotle’s rhetoric and the theory of argumentation by van Eemeren and Grootendorst. Speakers pract stating, encouraging, assuring, warning, condemning, directing, praising, thanking, etc. through rhetorical question, repetition, direct address, direct command and structural parallelism. They assume divine role by speaking authoritatively and they tactically and logically select words to legitimise their ideology. They also categorise and portray individuals and/or issues either as good or bad, sinner/sin or righteous/righteousness, etc. The study provides clearer insight into the pragmatic import and the communicative effectiveness of Christian Pentecostal sermons. Further research can juxtapose the pragma-rhetorical and argumentation strategies of preachers of two clearly differentiated movements within the Christian religion.

Keywords: argumentation, communicative intentions, pentecostal sermons, pragmeme, rhetoric

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5140 Evaluating Forecasting Strategies for Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Insights From the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

Abstract:

The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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5139 Technical and Economic Analysis of Smart Micro-Grid Renewable Energy Systems: An Applicable Case Study

Authors: M. A. Fouad, M. A. Badr, Z. S. Abd El-Rehim, Taher Halawa, Mahmoud Bayoumi, M. M. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Renewable energy-based micro-grids are presently attracting significant consideration. The smart grid system is presently considered a reliable solution for the expected deficiency in the power required from future power systems. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal components sizes of a micro-grid, investigating technical and economic performance with the environmental impacts. The micro grid load is divided into two small factories with electricity, both on-grid and off-grid modes are considered. The micro-grid includes photovoltaic cells, back-up diesel generator wind turbines, and battery bank. The estimated load pattern is 76 kW peak. The system is modeled and simulated by MATLAB/Simulink tool to identify the technical issues based on renewable power generation units. To evaluate system economy, two criteria are used: the net present cost and the cost of generated electricity. The most feasible system components for the selected application are obtained, based on required parameters, using HOMER simulation package. The results showed that a Wind/Photovoltaic (W/PV) on-grid system is more economical than a Wind/Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery (W/PV/D/B) off-grid system as the cost of generated electricity (COE) is 0.266 $/kWh and 0.316 $/kWh, respectively. Considering the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, the off-grid will be competitive to the on-grid system as COE is found to be (0.256 $/kWh, 0.266 $/kWh), for on and off grid systems.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, micro-grid system, modeling and simulation, on/off grid system, environmental impacts

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5138 A Lightweight Blockchain: Enhancing Internet of Things Driven Smart Buildings Scalability and Access Control Using Intelligent Direct Acyclic Graph Architecture and Smart Contracts

Authors: Syed Irfan Raza Naqvi, Zheng Jiangbin, Ahmad Moshin, Pervez Akhter

Abstract:

Currently, the IoT system depends on a centralized client-servant architecture that causes various scalability and privacy vulnerabilities. Distributed ledger technology (DLT) introduces a set of opportunities for the IoT, which leads to practical ideas for existing components at all levels of existing architectures. Blockchain Technology (BCT) appears to be one approach to solving several IoT problems, like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum, which offer multiple possibilities. Besides, IoTs are resource-constrained devices with insufficient capacity and computational overhead to process blockchain consensus mechanisms; the traditional BCT existing challenge for IoTs is poor scalability, energy efficiency, and transaction fees. IOTA is a distributed ledger based on Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG) that ensures M2M micro-transactions are free of charge. IOTA has the potential to address existing IoT-related difficulties such as infrastructure scalability, privacy and access control mechanisms. We proposed an architecture, SLDBI: A Scalable, lightweight DAG-based Blockchain Design for Intelligent IoT Systems, which adapts the DAG base Tangle and implements a lightweight message data model to address the IoT limitations. It enables the smooth integration of new IoT devices into a variety of apps. SLDBI enables comprehensive access control, energy efficiency, and scalability in IoT ecosystems by utilizing the Masked Authentication Message (MAM) protocol and the IOTA Smart Contract Protocol (ISCP). Furthermore, we suggest proof-of-work (PoW) computation on the full node in an energy-efficient way. Experiments have been carried out to show the capability of a tangle to achieve better scalability while maintaining energy efficiency. The findings show user access control management at granularity levels and ensure scale up to massive networks with thousands of IoT nodes, such as Smart Connected Buildings (SCBDs).

Keywords: blockchain, IOT, direct acyclic graphy, scalability, access control, architecture, smart contract, smart connected buildings

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5137 An Application of Self-Health Risk Assessment among Populations Living in The Vicinity of a Fiber-Cement Roofing Factory

Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

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The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2 km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5 km of factory)(N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04 %)(p=0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67 %, respectively) (p<0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p <0.001 for females; p=0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey

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5136 New Managerialism and Organizational Commitment: Impact towards Employees' Work Performance in a Malaysian Public University

Authors: Kamarul Fairuz Hassim, Sharifah Fatimah Syed-Ahmad

Abstract:

New managerialism has become the current trend in managing public sector which emphasizes on efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability. Public universities are not exempted from experiencing this new system. This study tries to explore the direct impact of new managerialism towards work performance of the employees in a public university in Malaysia and the indirect impact through a mediating factor – Organizational Commitment. Feedback were gathered from 204 respondents comprises of academics and non-academics managers in the University of Malaya using a 39 items, self-administered questionnaire. Respondents’ views were asked in the aspects of managerialism level of the university, their organizational commitment, and self-rated work performance level. The findings exhibit that there is a direct impact of new managerialism towards employees’ work performance in a positive way. This is contradicting to the established Hypotheses of this study. Furthermore, there is no significant finding on the role of all three components of organizational commitment – affective, normative, and continuance as the mediating factors in new managerialism approach that gave impact towards work performance. Consequently these insignificant found failed to corroborate the remaining six hypotheses in this study. On another note, findings gathered from this study show some contradiction to the original research conducted earlier by Smeenk et al. in 2009. Therefore, results obtained from this study do contribute to the existing pool of knowledge as previous studies on this topic are scarce especially in the Malaysia’s context.

Keywords: new managerialism, Malaysia public universities, organizational commitment, work performance

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5135 Forecasting Impacts on Vulnerable Shorelines: Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coastal Zone of Messologi Area - Western Greece

Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

Abstract:

The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

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5134 Solar and Wind Energy Potential Study of Lower Sindh, Pakistan for Power Generation

Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh, Maliha A. Siddiqui

Abstract:

Global and diffuse solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lower Sindh, namely Karachi, Hyderabad, Nawabshah were carried out using sunshine hour data of the area to assess the feasibility of solar energy utilization for power generation in Sindh province. The results obtained show a large variation in the direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months in Lower Sindh (50% direct and 50% diffuse for Karachi and Hyderabad). In Nawabshah area, the contribution of diffuse solar radiation is low during the monsoon months, July and August. The KT value of Nawabshah indicates a clear sky throughout almost the entire year. The percentage of diffuse radiation does not exceed more than 20%. In Nawabshah, the appearance of cloud is rare even during the monsoon months. The estimated values indicate that Nawabshah has high solar potential, whereas Karachi and Hyderabad have low solar potential. During the monsoon months the Lower part of Sindh can utilize the hybrid system with wind power. Near Karachi and Hyderabad, the wind speed ranges between 6.2 m/sec to 6.9 m/sec. A wind corridor exists near Karachi, Hyderabad, Gharo, Keti Bander and Shah Bander. The short fall of solar can be compensated by wind because in the monsoon months of July and August, wind speeds are higher in the Lower region of Sindh.

Keywords: hybrid power system, lower Sindh, power generation, solar and wind energy potential

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5133 The Effects of Self- and Partner Reported Attachment Orientations and Mate Retention Behaviors: Actor and Partner Effects in Romantic Couples

Authors: Jasna Hudek-Knezevic, Igor Kardum, Nada Krapic, Martina Jurcic

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of self- and partner reported attachment orientations on self-reported mate retention behaviors in romantic couples using the actor-partner interdependence model. The study was carried out on 187 heterosexual couples aged from 18 to 35 years, with an average relationship length of 4.5 years. Participants were asked to complete the revised scale of adult attachment and short form of mate retention inventory. Actor and partner effects of self- and partner reported anxious and avoidant attachment orientations on mate retention categories (direct guarding, intersexual negative inducements, positive inducements, public signals of possession and intrasexual negative inducements) and domains (cost-inflicting and benefit-provisioning), as well on overall mate retention were examined. Actor effects for women estimate whether their attachment orientations predict their own mate retention behaviors, whereas men’s actor effects estimate whether their attachment orientations predict their own mate retention behaviors. Women’s partner effects estimate whether their attachment orientations predict their partner’s mate retention behaviors, whereas men’s partner effects estimate whether their attachment orientations predict their partner’s mate retention behaviors. The use of two data sources, self- and partner reports, allow the control of the effects of common method variance when exploring actor and partner effects. Positive actor and partner effects of anxious attachment, as well as negative actor and partner effects of avoidant attachment on mate retention, were expected. In other words, it was expected that more anxiously attached individuals themselves, as well as their partners, will use mate retention behaviors more frequently. On the other hand, more avoidantly attached individuals themselves, as well as their partners, will use mate retention behaviors less frequently. These hypotheses were partially confirmed. The results showed that the strongest and most consistent effects across both data sources were men’s actor effects on the cost-inflicting mate retention domain, and especially on two mate retention categories, direct guarding, and intersexual negative inducements. Additionally, a consistent positive partner effect of men’s anxious attachment orientations on direct guarding was also obtained. Avoidant attachment orientation exerted few and inconsistent actor and partner effects on mate retention domains and categories. The results are explained by theoretical propositions addressing the effects of attachment orientations on an interpersonal romantic relationship in early adulthood.

Keywords: actor and partner effects, attachment orientations, dyadic analysis, mate retention behavior

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5132 Northern Nigeria Vaccine Direct Delivery System

Authors: Evelyn Castle, Adam Thompson

Abstract:

Background: In 2013, the Kano State Primary Health Care Management Board redesigned its Routine immunization supply chain from diffused pull to direct delivery push. It addressed issues around stockouts and reduced time spent by health facility staff collecting, and reporting on vaccine usage. The health care board sought the help of a 3PL for twice-monthly deliveries from its cold store to 484 facilities across 44 local governments. eHA’s Health Delivery Systems group formed a 3PL to serve 326 of these new facilities in partnership with the State. We focused on designing and implementing a technology system throughout. Basic methodologies: GIS Mapping: - Planning the delivery of vaccines to hundreds of health facilities requires detailed route planning for delivery vehicles. Mapping the road networks across Kano and Bauchi with a custom routing tool provided information for the optimization of deliveries. Reducing the number of kilometers driven each round by 20%, - reducing cost and delivery time. Direct Delivery Information System: - Vaccine Direct Deliveries are facilitated through pre-round planning (driven by health facility database, extensive GIS, and inventory workflow rules), manager and driver control panel customizing delivery routines and reporting, progress dashboard, schedules/routes, packing lists, delivery reports, and driver data collection applications. Move: Last Mile Logistics Management System: - MOVE has improved vaccine supply information management to be timely, accurate and actionable. Provides stock management workflow support, alerts management for cold chain exceptions/stock outs, and on-device analytics for health and supply chain staff. Software was built to be offline-first with user-validated interface and experience. Deployed to hundreds of vaccine storage site the improved information tools helps facilitate the process of system redesign and change management. Findings: - Stock-outs reduced from 90% to 33% - Redesigned current health systems and managing vaccine supply for 68% of Kano’s wards. - Near real time reporting and data availability to track stock. - Paperwork burdens of health staff have been dramatically reduced. - Medicine available when the community needs it. - Consistent vaccination dates for children under one to prevent polio, yellow fever, tetanus. - Higher immunization rates = Lower infection rates. - Hundreds of millions of Naira worth of vaccines successfully transported. - Fortnightly service to 326 facilities in 326 wards across 30 Local Government areas. - 6,031 cumulative deliveries. - Over 3.44 million doses transported. - Minimum travel distance covered in a round of delivery is 2000 kms & maximum of 6297 kms. - 153,409 kms travelled by 6 drivers. - 500 facilities in 326 wards. - Data captured and synchronized for the first time. - Data driven decision making now possible. Conclusion: eHA’s Vaccine Direct delivery has met challenges in Kano and Bauchi State and provided a reliable delivery service of vaccinations that ensure t health facilities can run vaccination clinics for children under one. eHA uses innovative technology that delivers vaccines from Northern Nigerian zonal stores straight to healthcare facilities. Helped healthcare workers spend less time managing supplies and more time delivering care, and will be rolled out nationally across Nigeria.

Keywords: direct delivery information system, health delivery system, GIS mapping, Northern Nigeria, vaccines

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5131 Heritage Impact Assessment Policy within Western Balkans, Albania

Authors: Anisa Duraj

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As usually acknowledged, cultural heritage is the weakest component in EIA studies. The role of heritage impact assessment (HIA) in development projects is not often accounted for, and in those cases where it is, HIA is considered as a reactive response and not as a solutions provider. Because of continuous development projects, in most cases, heritage is unconsidered and often put under threat. Cultural protection and development challenges ask for prudent legal regulation and appropriate policy implementation. The challenges become even more peculiar in underdeveloped countries or endangered areas, which are generally characterized by numerous legal constraints. Therefore, the need for strategic proposals for HIA is of high importance. In order to trigger HIA as a proactive operation in the IA process and make sure to cover cultural heritage in the whole EIA framework, an appropriate system of evaluation of impacts should be provided. To obtain the required results for HIA, this last must be part of a regional policy, which will address and guide development projects toward a proper evaluation of their impacts affecting heritage. In order to get a clearer picture of existing gabs but also new possibilities for HIA, this paper will focus on the Western Balkans region and the undergoing changes that it faces. Concerning continuous development pressure in the region and within the aspiration of the Western Balkans countries to join the European Union (EU) as member states, attention should be paid to new development policies under the EU directives for conducting EIAs, and accurate support is required for the restructuration of existing policies as well as for the implementation of the UN Agenda for SDGs. In the framework of new emerging needs, if HIA is taken into account, the outcome would be an inclusive regional program that would help to overcome marginality issues of spaces and people.

Keywords: cultural heritage, impact assessment, SDGs, urban development, western Balkans, regional policy, HIA, EIA

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5130 Land Use Influence on the 2014 Catastrophic Flood in the Northeast of Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

Abstract:

The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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