Search results for: risk curve analysis

Authors: Majeda S. Hammoud

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Background and Aim: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication affecting around 14% of pregnancies globally that carries short and long-term consequences to the mother and her child. Pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity is the most consistently and strongly associated modifiable risk factor with GDM development. This analysis aimed to determine whether vitamin D status during pregnancy modulates the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity/overweight on GDM risk while stratifying by maternal age. Methods: Data from the Kuwait Birth Cohort (KBC) study were analyzed, which enrolled pregnant women in the second or third trimester of gestation. Pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) was categorized as under/normal weight (<25.0), overweight (25.0 to <30.0), and obesity (≥30.0). 25 hydroxyvitamin D levels were measured in blood samples that were collected at recruitment and categorized as deficiency (<50 nmol/L) and insufficiency/sufficiency (≥50 nmol/L). GDM status was ascertained according to international guidelines. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations, and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Results: The analyzed study sample included a total of 982 pregnant women, with a mean (SD) age of 31.4 (5.2) years. The prevalence of GDM was estimated to be 17.3% (95% CI: 14.9-19.7), and the prevalence of pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity was 37.8% (95% CI: 34.8-40.8) and 28.8% (95% CI: 26.0-31.7), respectively. The prevalence of gestational vitamin D deficiency was estimated to be 55.3% (95% CI: 52.2-58.4). The association between pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity with GDM risk differed according to maternal age and gestational vitamin D status (Pinteraction[BMI × age × vitamin D = 0.047). Among pregnant women aged <35 years, prepregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 3.65, 95% CI: 1.50-8.86, p = 0.004) and vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 2.55, 95% CI: 1.16-5.61, p = 0.019). In contrast, among pregnant women aged ≥35 years, pre-pregnancy obesity compared to under/normal weight was associated with increased GDM risk among women with gestational vitamin D deficiency (aOR: 9.70, 95% CI: 2.01-46.69, p = 0.005), but not among women with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency (aOR: 1.46, 95% CI: 0.42-5.16, p = 0.553). Conclusion: The effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk is modulated by maternal age and gestational vitamin D status, with the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity being more pronounced among older pregnant women (aged ≥35 years) with gestational vitamin D deficiency compared to those with vitamin D insufficiency/sufficiency. Whereas, among younger women (aged <35 years), the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk was not modulated by gestational vitamin D status. Therefore, vitamin D supplementation among pregnant women, specifically older women with pre-pregnancy obesity, may mitigate the effect of pre-pregnancy obesity on GDM risk.

Keywords: gestational diabetes mellitus, vitamin D, obesity, body mass index

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: Sakchai Satienperakul, Manoch Thanomwat, Jutiporn Seedasama

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A paper based analytical devices (PADs) for the analysis of Fe (III) ion in natural water samples is developed, using reagent from guava leaf extract. The extraction is simply performed in deionized water pH 7, where tannin extract is obtained and used as an alternative natural reagent. The PADs are fabricated by ink-jet printing using alkenyl ketene dimer (AKD) wax. The quantitation of Fe (III) is carried out using reagent from guava leaf extract prepared in acetate buffer at the ratio of 1:1. A color change to gray-purple is observed by naked eye when dropping sample contained Fe (III) ion on PADs channel. The reflective absorption measurement is performed for creating a standard curve. The linear calibration range is observed over the concentration range of 2-10 mg L-1. Detection limited of Fe (III) is observed at 2 mg L-1. In its optimum form, the PADs is stable for up to 30 days under oxygen free conditions. The small dimensions, low volume requirement and alternative natural reagent make the proposed PADs attractive for on-site environmental monitoring and analysis.

Keywords: green chemical analysis, guava leaf extract, lab on a chip, paper based analytical device

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

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Authors: Ali Mortazavi

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The main objective of this research project is to delve into a multitude of geomechanical risks associated with various mining methods employed within the underground mining industry. Controlling geotechnical design parameters and operational factors affecting the selection of suitable mining techniques for a given underground mining condition will be considered from a risk assessment point of view. Important geomechanical challenges will be investigated as appropriate and relevant to the commonly used underground mining methods. Given the complicated nature of rock mass in-situ and complicated boundary conditions and operational complexities associated with various underground mining methods, the selection of a safe and economic mining operation is of paramount significance. Rock failure at varying scales within the underground mining openings is always a threat to mining operations and causes human and capital losses worldwide. Geotechnical design is a major design component of all underground mines and basically dominates the safety of an underground mine. With regard to uncertainties that exist in rock characterization prior to mine development, there are always risks associated with inappropriate design as a function of mining conditions and the selected mining method. Uncertainty often results from the inherent variability of rock masse, which in turn is a function of both geological materials and rock mass in-situ conditions. The focus of this research is on developing a methodology which enables a geomechanical risk assessment of given underground mining conditions. The outcome of this research is a geotechnical risk analysis algorithm, which can be used as an aid in selecting the appropriate mining method as a function of mine design parameters (e.g., rock in-situ properties, design method, governing boundary conditions such as in-situ stress and groundwater, etc.).

Keywords: geomechanical risk assessment, rock mechanics, underground mining, rock engineering

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Authors: Visar Baxhuku, Halil Demolli, Alishukri Shkodra

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This paper presents the monitoring of vehicle movement, namely the developing of speed of vehicles during movement in a certain twist. The basic geometry data of twist are measured with the purpose of calculating the slide in border speed. During the research, measuring developed speed of passenger vehicles for the real conditions of the road surface, dry road with average damage, was realised. After setting values, the analysis was done in function security of movement in twist.

Keywords: critical sliding velocity, moving velocity, curve, passenger vehicles

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Authors: Alwyn John Lim

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Philippines is one of the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters in the world. Almost every year different types of natural disasters occur in Philippines and destroy many lives and resources of people. Although it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of disasters influenced by natural causes, proper plan and management such as disaster risk reduction may minimize the damage cause by natural disasters. Based on literature review this paper will analyze literatures on public/community awareness and education in disaster risk reduction that would help promote a country wide public disaster awareness and education program in the Philippines. This will include best practices and importance of community disaster awareness and education. The paper will also tackle ICT tools that will help boost the process and effectiveness of community/public disaster awareness and education.

Keywords: community awareness, disaster education, disaster risk reduction, Philippines

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide

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Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Ejiofor

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The construction industry plays a decisive role in the healthy development of any nation. Not only large but even small construction projects contribute to a country’s economic growth. There is a need for good management to ensure successful delivery and sustainability because of the plethora of risks that have resulted in low-profit margins for contractors, cost and schedule overruns, poor quality delivery, and abandoned projects. This research reviewed Capitalization on Sustainable Risk Management. Questionnaires and oral interviews conducted were utilized as means of data collection. One hundred and ninety-eight (198) large construction firms in Nigeria form the population of this study. 15 (fifteen) companies that emanated from merger and acquisition were used for the study. The instruments used for data collection were a researcher-developed structured questionnaire based on a five-point rating scale, interviews, focus group discussion, and secondary sources (bill of quantities and stock and exchange commission). The instrument was validated by two experts in the field. The reliability of the instrument was established by applying the split-half method. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used to test the data, and a degree of agreement was obtained. Data were subjected to descriptive statistics and analyzed using analysis of variance, t-test, and SPSS. The identified impacts of capitalization were an increase in turnover (24.5%), improvement in the image (24.5%), risk reduction (20%), business expansion (17.3%), and geographical spread (13.6%). The study strongly advocates the inclusion of risk management evaluation as part of the construction procurement process.

Keywords: capitalization, project delivery, risks, risk management, sustainability

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Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Weerawan Marangkun

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The objective of this study was to explore the establishment and to investigate the relationship between the gender (male or female) of SME owner-managers/ entrepreneurs and their risk perception in business activity. The study examines the data by interviewing 76 SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs’ responses (37 males, 39 females) in manufacturing, finance, human resources and marketing sector in the economic regions of Songkhla province, Thailand. This study found that four tools which were operation, cash flow, staff, and new market were perceived by the SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs at high level. However, male and female SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs perceived some factors such as the age of SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs, the duration of firm operation, type of firm, and type of business without significant differences. In contrast, the gender affected the risk perception about increasing cost, fierce competition, leapfrog development of firm, substandard staff, namely that male and female perceived these factors with significant differences. According to the research, SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs should develop their risk management competency to deal with the risk efficiently. Secondly, SME firms should gather into groups. Furthermore, it was shown that the five key tools used to manage these risky situations were the use of managerial competencies and clustering.

Keywords: risk perception, owner-managers/entrepreneurs, SME, Songkhla, Thailand

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Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

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Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

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Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

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Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

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Authors: Iveta Bryjova

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Recording of viscoelastic strain-vs-time curves with the aid of the suction method and a follow-up analysis, resulting into evaluation of standard viscoelastic parameters, is a significant technique for non-invasive contact diagnostics of mechanical properties of skin and assessment of its conditions, particularly in acute burns, hypertrophic scarring (the most common complication of burn trauma) and reconstructive surgery. For elimination of the skin thickness contribution, usable viscoelastic parameters deduced from the strain-vs-time curves are restricted to the relative ones (i.e. those expressed as a ratio of two dimensional parameters), like grosselasticity, net-elasticity, biological elasticity or Qu’s area parameters, in literature and practice conventionally referred to as R2, R5, R6, R7, Q1, Q2, and Q3. With the exception of parameters R2 and Q1, the remaining ones substantially depend on the position of inflection point separating the elastic linear and viscoelastic segments of the strain-vs-time curve. The standard algorithm implemented in commercially available devices relies heavily on the experimental fact that the inflection time comes about 0.1 sec after the suction switch-on/off, which depreciates credibility of parameters thus obtained. Although the Qu’s US 7,556,605 patent suggests a method of improving the precision of the inflection determination, there is still room for nonnegligible improving. In this contribution, a novel method of inflection point determination utilizing the advantageous properties of the Savitzky–Golay filtering is presented. The method allows computation of derivatives of smoothed strain-vs-time curve, more exact location of inflection and consequently more reliable values of aforementioned viscoelastic parameters. An improved applicability of the five inflection-dependent relative viscoelastic parameters is demonstrated by recasting a former study under the new method, and by comparing its results with those provided by the methods that have been used so far.

Keywords: Savitzky–Golay filter, scarring, skin, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Umar Javed, Kristen Blann, Philip Adalikwu, Maryam Sahraei, John McMaine

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The soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) is a widely used method to assess direct runoff depth based on specific rainfall events. “Actual” estimated runoff depth was estimated by subtracting the change in soil moisture from the depth of precipitation for each discrete rain event during the growing seasons from 2021 to 2023. Fields under investigation were situated in a HUC-12 watershed in southeastern South Dakota selected for a common soil series (Nora-Crofton complex and Moody-Nora complex) to minimize the influence of soil texture on soil moisture. Two soil moisture probes were installed from May 2021 to October 2023, with exceptions during planting and harvest periods. For each field, “Textbook” CN estimates were derived from the TR-55 table based on corresponding mapped land use land cover LULC class and hydrologic soil groups from web soil survey maps. The TR-55 method incorporated HSG and crop rotation within the study area fields. These textbook values were then compared to actual CN values to determine the impact of tillage practices on CN and runoff. Most fields were mapped as having a textbook C or D HSG, but the HSG of actual CNs was that of a B or C hydrologic group. Actual CNs were consistently lower than textbook CNs for all management practices, but actual CNs in conventionally tilled fields were the highest (and closest to textbook CNs), while actual CNs in no-till fields were the lowest. Preliminary results suggest that no-till practice reduces runoff compared to conventional till. This research highlights the need to use CNs that incorporate agricultural management to more accurately estimate runoff at the field and watershed scale.

Keywords: curve number hydrology, hydrologic soil groups, runoff, tillage practices

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Authors: Gerardo Casal, Miguel E. Vázquez-Méndez

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The clothoid (also known as Cornu spiral or Euler spiral) is a curve that is characterized because its curvature is proportional to its length. This property makes that it would be widely used as transition curve for designing the layout of roads and railway tracks. In this work, from the geometrical property characterizing the clothoid, its parametric equations are obtained and two algorithms to compute it are compared. The first (classical), is widely used in Surveying Schools and it is based on the use of explicit formulas obtained from Taylor expansions of sine and cosine functions. The second one (alternative) is a very simple algorithm, based on the numerical solution of the initial value problems giving the clothoid parameterization. Both methods are compared in some typical surveying problems. The alternative method does not use complex formulas and so it is conceptually very simple and easy to apply. It gives good results, even if the classical method goes wrong (if the quotient between length and radius of curvature is high), needs no subsequent translations nor rotations and, consequently, it seems an efficient tool for designing the layout of roads and railway tracks.

Keywords: transition curves, railroad and highway engineering, Runge-Kutta methods

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: activity-based cost estimating, cost estimation, ETICS, life cycle costing

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: Oussama Derdous, Lakhdar Djemili, Hamza Bouchahed

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The consequences of a dam breach can be devastating; both in terms of lives lost and damaged infrastructure and property. Hydraulic modeling provides a clear picture of the possible consequences of partial or complete failure of a dam, which is the key to carry out emergency planning and conduct reliable risk assessments. In this paper, the MIKE11 model developed by the Danish Hydrologic Institute (DHI) was used to simulate the flood wave propagation associated with a potential failure analysis failure of Zardezas dam located in the city of Skikda in the North East of Algeria. MIKE11 results including inundation maps and the representative channel/valley cross-sections depicting flow depth and maximal flow velocities showed that Zardezas reservoir presents a significant risk to downstream areas in the event of a dam failure. These results can be used as the basis of the development of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP).The main objective of this plan is to predict the appropriate steps to avoid or at least decrease the consequences of unexpected failure of Zardezas dam.

Keywords: MIKE11, dam break, inundation maps, emergency action plan

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Authors: Jasna Prester, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Božidar Matijević

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Various prominent scholars and substantial practitioner-oriented literature on innovation orientation have shown positive effects on firm performance. There is a myriad of factors that influence and enhance innovation but it has been found in the literature that new product innovations accounted for an average of 14 percent of sales revenues for all firms. If there is one thing that has changed in innovation management during the last decade, it is the growing reliance on external partners. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. Purchasing function in an organization is extremely important as it deals on an average of 50% or more of a firm's expenditures. In the nineties the purchasing department was largely seen as a transaction-oriented, clerical function but today purchasing integration provides a formal interface mechanism between purchasing and other firm functions that services other functions within the company. Purchasing function has to be organized differently to enable firm innovation potential. However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party), technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks, which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are investigated in this work since it has been found in the literature that the higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain members. Most researches on organization of purchasing function were done by case study analysis of innovative firms. This work actually tends to prove or discard results found in the literature based on case study method. A large data set of 1493 companies, from 25 countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey served as a basis for analysis.

Keywords: purchasing function organization, innovation, technological risk, GMRG 4 survey

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Pooja Seth, Shruti Aggarwal

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The Europium (Eu) doped (0.02-0.1 wt %) lithium fluoride (LiF) crystal in the form of multicrystalline sheet was gown by the edge defined film fed growth (EFG) technique. Crystals were grown in argon gas atmosphere using graphite crucible and stainless steel die. The systematic incorporation of Eu inside the host LiF lattice was confirmed by X-ray diffractometry. Thermoluminescence (TL) glow curve was recorded on annealed (AN) crystals after irradiation with a gamma dose of 15 Gy. The effect of different concentration of Eu in enhancing the thermoluminescence (TL) intensity of LiF was studied. The normalized peak height of the Eu-doped LiF crystal was nearly 12 times that of the LiF crystals. The optimized concentration of Eu in LiF was found to be 0.05wt% at which maximum TL intensity was observed with main TL peak positioned at 185 °C. At higher concentration TL intensity decreases due to the formation of precipitates in the form of clusters or aggregates. The nature of the energy traps in Eu doped LiF was analysed through glow curve deconvolution. The trap depth was found to be in the range of 0.2 – 0.5 eV. These results showed that doping with Eu enhances the TL intensity by creating more defect sites for capturing of electron and holes during irradiation which might be useful for dosimetry application.

Keywords: thermoluminescence, defects, gamma radiation, crystals

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, new methodologies to analyze investment risk are needed. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. This study modeled the economics and risk strategies of cradle-to-cradle linkages to incorporate the value-chain effects on capital/operational expenditures and investment risk reductions using a proprietary techno-economic model that incorporates investment risk scenarios utilizing the Monte Carlo methodology. The study calculated the sequential increases in profitability for each additional co-host on an operating forestry-based biomass energy plant in West Enfield, Maine. Phase I starts with the base-line of forestry biomass to electricity only and was built up in stages to include co-hosts of a greenhouse and a land-based shrimp farm. Phase I incorporates CO2 and heat waste streams from the operating power plant in an analysis of lowering and stabilizing the operating costs of the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Phase II analysis incorporated a jet-fuel biorefinery and its secondary slip-stream of biochar which would be developed into two additional bio-products: 1) A soil amendment compost for agriculture and 2) A biochar effluent filter for the aquaculture. The second part of the study applied the Monte Carlo risk methodology to illustrate how co-location derisks investment in an integrated Bio-Hub versus individual investments in stand-alone projects of energy, agriculture or aquaculture. The analyzed scenarios compared reductions in both Capital and Operating Expenditures, which stabilizes profits and reduces the investment risk associated with projects in energy, agriculture, and aquaculture. The major findings of this techno-economic modeling using the Monte Carlo technique resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. In 2018, the site was designated as an economic opportunity zone as part of a Federal Program, which allows for Capital Gains tax benefits for investments on the site. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. The Bio-hub Ecosystems techno-economic analysis model is a critical model to expedite new standards for investments in circular zero-waste projects. Profitable projects will expedite adoption and advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable Bio-Economy paradigm that supports local and rural communities.

Keywords: bio-economy, investment risk, circular design, economic modelling

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Authors: Cabangile Ncengeni Ngwane, Gerald Mills

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Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating natural hazards such as droughts, heat waves and sea-level rise. The associated risks are the greatest in places where socio-ecological systems are exposed to these changes and the populations and infrastructure are vulnerable. Identifying the communities at risk and enhancing local resilience are key issues in responding to the current and project climate changes. This paper explores the types of risks associated with multiple overlapping hazards in Durban, South Africa where the social, cultural and economic dimensions that contribute to exposure and vulnerability are compounded by its history of apartheid. As a result, climate change risks are highly concentrated in marginalized communities that have the least adaptive capacity. In this research, a Geographic Information System is to explore the spatial correspondence among geographic layers representing hazards, exposure and vulnerability across Durban. This quantitative analysis will allow authors to identify communities at high risk and focus our study on the nature of the current human-environment relationships that result in risk inequalities. This work will employ qualitative methods to critically examine policies (including educational practices and financial support systems) and on-the-ground actions that are designed to improve the adaptive capacity of these communities and meet UN Sustainable Development Goals. This work will contribute to a growing body of literature on disaster risk management, especially as it relates to developing economies where socio-economic inequalities are correlated with ethnicity and race.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, disaster risk reduction, exposure, resilience, South Africa

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Authors: Beloulou Mohamed Lamine, Fedili Benamar, Meliani Walid, Chaid Dalila

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Introduction: The risk factors for the chronicization of postoperative pain are numerous and often intricately intertwined. Among these, the severity of acute postoperative pain is currently recognized as one of the most determining factors. Mastectomy and thoracotomy are described as among the most painful surgeries and the most likely to lead to chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP). Objective: To examine the aspects of acute postoperative pain potentially involved in the development of chronic pain following breast and thoracic surgery. Patients and Methods: A prospective study involving 164 patients was conducted over a six-month period. Postoperative pain (during mobilization) was assessed using a Visual Analog Scale (VAS) at various time points after surgery: Day 0, 1st, 2nd, 5th days, 1st and 6th months. Moderate to severe pain was defined as a VAS score ≥ 4. A comparative analysis (univariate analysis) of postoperative pain intensities at different evaluation phases was performed on patients with and without CPSP to identify potential associations with the risk of chronicization six months after surgery. Results: At the 6th month post-surgery, the incidence of CPSP was 43.0%. Moderate to severe acute postoperative pain (in the first five days) was observed in 64% of patients. The highest pain scores were reported among thoracic surgery patients. Comparative measures revealed a highly significant association between the presence of moderate to severe acute pain, especially lasting for ≥ 48 hours, and the occurrence of CPSP (p-value <0.0001). Likewise, the persistence of subacute pain (up to 4 to 6 weeks after surgery), especially of moderate to severe intensity, was significantly associated with the risk of chronicization at six months (p-value <0.0001). Conclusion: CPSP after breast and thoracic surgery remains a fairly common morbidity that profoundly affects the quality of life. Severe acute postoperative pain, especially if it is prolonged and/or with a slow decline in intensity, can be an important predictive factor for the risk of chronicization. Therefore, more effective and intensive management of acute postoperative pain, as well as longitudinal monitoring of its trajectory over time, should be an essential component of strategies for preventing chronic pain after surgery.

Keywords: chronic post-surgical pain, acute postoperative pain, breast and thoracic surgery, subacute postoperative pain, pain trajectory, predictive factor

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Zixuan Zhao, Lingbin Du, Le Wang, Youqing Wang, Yi Yang, Jingjun Chen, Hengjin Dong

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Objectives: Few results from public attitudes for lung cancer screening are available both in China and abroad. This study aimed to identify preferred lung cancer screening modalities in a Chinese population and predict uptake rates of different modalities. Materials and Methods: A discrete choice experiment questionnaire was administered to 392 Chinese individuals aged 50–74 years who were at high risk for lung cancer. Each choice set had two lung screening options and an option to opt-out, and respondents were asked to choose the most preferred one. Both mixed logit analysis and stepwise logistic analysis were conducted to explore whether preferences were related to respondent characteristics and identify which kinds of respondents were more likely to opt out of any screening. Results: On mixed logit analysis, attributes that were predictive of choice at 1% level of statistical significance included the screening interval, screening venue, and out-of-pocket costs. The preferred screening modality seemed to be screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) + blood test once a year in a general hospital at a cost of RMB 50; this could increase the uptake rate by 0.40 compared to the baseline setting. On stepwise logistic regression, those with no endowment insurance were more likely to opt out; those who were older and housewives/househusbands, and those with a health check habit and with commercial endowment insurance were less likely to opt out from a screening programme. Conclusions: There was considerable variance between real risk and self-perceived risk of lung cancer among respondents, and further research is required in this area. Lung cancer screening uptake can be increased by offering various screening modalities, so as to help policymakers further design the screening modality.

Keywords: lung cancer, screening, China., discrete choice experiment

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes, Usriatur Rohma

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Nonparametric path analysis is a statistical method that does not rely on the assumption that the curve is known. The purpose of this study is to determine the best truncated spline nonparametric path function between linear and quadratic polynomial degrees with 1, 2, and 3 knot points and to determine the significance of estimating the best truncated spline nonparametric path function in the model of the effect of perceived benefits and perceived convenience on behavior to convert waste into economic value through the intention variable of changing people's mindset about waste using the t test statistic at the jackknife resampling stage. The data used in this study are primary data obtained from research grants. The results showed that the best model of nonparametric truncated spline path analysis is quadratic polynomial degree with 3 knot points. In addition, the significance of the best truncated spline nonparametric path function estimation using jackknife resampling shows that all exogenous variables have a significant influence on the endogenous variables.

Keywords: nonparametric path analysis, truncated spline, linear, kuadratic, behavior to turn waste into economic value, jackknife resampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 46