Search results for: index score
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5176

Search results for: index score

4366 Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought in Cholistan Region, Pakistan: An Application of Standardized Precipitation Index

Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

Abstract:

Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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4365 Outcome of Obstetric Admission to General Intensive Care over a Period of 3 Years

Authors: Kamel Abdelaziz Mohamed

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Intoduction:Inadequate knowledge about obstetric admission and infrequent dealing with the obstetric patients in ICU results in high mortality and morbidity. Aim of the work:To evaluate the indications, course, severity of illness, and outcome of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients and Methods: We collected baseline data and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. ICU mortality was the primary outcome. Results: Seventy obstetric patients were admitted to the ICU over 3 years, 36 of these patients (51.4 %) were admitted during the antepartum period. The primary obstetric indication for ICU admission was pregnancy-induced hypertension (22 patients, 31.4%), followed by sepsis (8 patients, 11.4%) as the leading non-obstetric admission. The mean APACHE II score was 19.6. The predicted mortality rate based on the APACHE II score was 22%, however, only 4 maternal deaths (5.7%) were among the obstetric patients admitted to the ICU. Conclusion: Evaluation of obstetric patients by (APACHE II) scores showed higher predicted mortality rate, however the overall mortality was lower. Regular follow up, together with early detection of complications and prompt ICU admission necessitating proper management by specialized team can improve mortality.

Keywords: obstetric, complication, postpartum, sepsis

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4364 Empirical Study of Correlation between the Cost Performance Index Stability and the Project Cost Forecast Accuracy in Construction Projects

Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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4363 Effects of Corruption and Logistics Performance Inefficiencies on Container Throughput: The Latin America Case

Authors: Fernando Seabra, Giulia P. Flores, Karolina C. Gomes

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Trade liberalizations measures, as import tariff cuts, are not a sufficient trigger for trade growth. Given that price margins are narrow, traders and cargo operators tend to opt out of markets where the process of goods clearance is slow and costly. Excess paperwork and slow customs dispatch not only lead to institutional breakdowns and corruption but also to increasing transaction cost and trade constraints. The objective of this paper is, therefore, two-fold: First, to evaluate the relationship between institutional and infrastructural performance indexes and trade growth in container throughput; and, second, to investigate the causes for differences in container demurrage and detention fees in Latin American countries (using other emerging countries as benchmarking). The analysis is focused on manufactured goods, typically transported by containers. Institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks and, therefore, the country logistics efficiency – measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI, World Bank-WB) – are compared with other indexes, such as the Doing Business index (WB) and the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International). The main results based on the comparison between Latin American countries and the others emerging countries point out in that the growth in containers trade is directly related to LPI performance. It has also been found that the main hypothesis is valid as aspects that more specifically identify trade facilitation and corruption are significant drivers of logistics performance. The exam of port efficiency (demurrage and detention fees) has demonstrated that not necessarily higher level of efficiency is related to lower charges; however, reductions in fees have been more significant within non-Latin American emerging countries.

Keywords: corruption, logistics performance index, container throughput, Latin America

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4362 Memory Types in Hemodialysis Patients: A Study Based on Hemodialysis Duration, Zahedan, South East of Iran

Authors: B. Sabayan, A. Alidadi, S. Ebrahimi, N. M. Bakhshani

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Neuropsychological problems are more common in hemodialysis (HD) patients than in healthy individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of long term HD on memory types of HD patients. To assess the different type of memory, we used memory parts of the Persian Papers and Pencil Cognitive assessment package (PCAP) and Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Our study included 80 HD patients of whom 39 had less than six months of HD and 41 patients and another group which had a history of HD more than six months. The population had a mean age of 51.60 years old and 27.5% of them were female. The scores of patients who have been hemodialyzed for a long time (median time of HD was up to 4 years) had lower score in anterograde, explicit, visual, recall and recognition memory (5.44±1.07, 9.49±3.472, 22.805±6.6913, 5.59±10.435, 11.02±3.190 score) than the HD patients who underwent HD for a shorter term, where the median time was 3 to 5 months (P<0.01). The regression result shows that, by increasing the HD duration, all memory types are reduced (R2=0.600, P<0.01). The present study demonstrated that HD patients who were under HD for a long time had significantly lower scores in the different types of memory. However, additional researches are needed in this area.

Keywords: hemodialysis patients, duration of hemodialysis, memory types, Zahedan

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4361 Budget Discipline and National Prosperity: The Nigerian Experience

Authors: Ben-Caleb Egbide, Iyoha Francis, Egharevba Mathew, Oduntan Emmanuel

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The prosperity of any nation is determined not just by the availability of resources, but also by the discipline exercised in the management of those resources. This paper examines the functional association between adherence to budgetary estimates or budget discipline (BDISC) and national prosperity proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and Relative Poverty Index (RPI)/Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal retrospective research strategy, time series data relating to both the endogenous and exogenous variables were extracted from official government publications for 36 years’ (1980-2015 in the case of RGDP and RPI), and for 26 years (1990-2015 in the case of HDI). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), as well as cointegration regressions, were employed to gauge both the short term and long term impact of BDISC on RPI/HDI and RGDP. The results indicated that BDISC is directly related with RGDP but indirectly related with RPI. The implication is that while adherence to budgetary estimate can enhance economic growth, it has the capacity to slow down the rate of poverty in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommend stricter adherence to budgets as a way out of economic under performance in Nigeria and engender the process of promoting human development and national prosperity.

Keywords: budget discipline, human development index, national prosperity, Nigeria

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4360 Sensitivity Assessment of Spectral Salinity Indices over Desert Sabkha of Western UAE

Authors: Rubab Ammad, Abdelgadir Abuelgasim

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UAE typically lies in one of the aridest regions of the world and is thus home to geologic features common to such climatic conditions including vast open deserts, sand dunes, saline soils, inland Sabkha and coastal Sabkha. Sabkha are characteristic salt flats formed in arid environment due to deposition and precipitation of salt and silt over sand surface because of low laying water table and rates of evaporation exceeding rates of precipitation. The study area, which comprises of western UAE, is heavily concentrated with inland Sabkha. Remote sensing is conventionally used to study the soil salinity of agriculturally degraded lands but not so broadly for Sabkha. The focus of this study was to identify these highly saline Sabkha areas on remotely sensed data, using salinity indices. The existing salinity indices in the literature have been designed for agricultural soils and they have not frequently used the spectral response of short-wave infra-red (SWIR1 and SWIR2) parts of electromagnetic spectrum. Using Landsat 8 OLI data and field ground truthing, this study formulated indices utilizing NIR-SWIR parts of spectrum and compared the results with existing salinity indices. Most indices depict reasonably good relationship between salinity and spectral index up until a certain value of salinity after which the reflectance reaches a saturation point. This saturation point varies with index. However, the study findings suggest a role of incorporating near infra-red and short-wave infra-red in salinity index with a potential of showing a positive relationship between salinity and reflectance up to a higher salinity value, compared to rest.

Keywords: Sabkha, salinity index, saline soils, Landsat 8, SWIR1, SWIR2, UAE desert

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
4359 A Therapeutic Approach for Bromhidrosis with Glycopyrrolate 2% Cream: Clinical Study of 20 Patients

Authors: Vasiliki Markantoni, Eftychia Platsidaki, Georgios Chaidemenos, Georgios Kontochristopoulos

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Introduction: Bromhidrosis, also known as osmidrosis, is a common distressing condition with a significant negative effect on patient’s quality of life. Its etiology is multifactorial. It usually affects axilla, genital skin, breasts and soles, areas where apocrine glands are mostly distributed. Therapeutic treatments include topical antibacterial agents, antiperspirants and neuromuscular blocker agents-toxins. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the efficacy and possible complications of topical glycopyrrolate, an anticholinergic agent, for treatment of bromhidrosis. Glycopyrrolate, applied topically as a cream, solution or spray at concentrations between 0,5% and 4%, has been successfully used to treat different forms of focal hyperhidrosis. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients, six males and fourteen females, meeting the criteria for bromhidrosis were treated with topical glycopyrrolate for two months. The average age was 36. Eleven patients had bromhidrosis located to the axillae, four to the soles, four to both axillae and soles and one to the genital folds. Glycopyrrolate was applied topically as a cream at concentration 2%, formulated in Fitalite. During the first month, patients were using the cream every night and thereafter twice daily. The degree of malodor was assessed subjectively by patients and scaled averagely as ‘none’, ‘mild’, ‘moderate’, and ‘severe’ with corresponding scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The modified Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) was used to assess the quality of life. The clinical efficacy was graded by the patient scale of excellent, good, fair and poor. In the end, patients were given the power to evaluate whether they were totally satisfied with, partially satisfied or unsatisfied and possible side effects during the treatment were recorded. Results: All patients were satisfied at the end of the treatment. No patient defined the response as no improvement. The subjectively assessed score level of bromhidrosis was remarkably improved after the first month of treatment and improved slightly more after the second month. DLQI score was also improved to all patients. Adverse effects were reported in 2 patients. In the first case, topical irritation was reported. This was classed as mild (erythema and desquamation), appeared during the second month of treatment and was treated with low-potency topical corticosteroids. In the second case, mydriasis was reported, that recovered without specific treatment, as soon as we insisted to the importance of careful hygiene after cream application so as not to contaminate the periocular skin or ocular surface. Conclusions: Dermatologists often encounter patients with bromhidrosis, therefore should be aware of treatment options. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the use of topical glycopyrrolate as a therapeutic approach for bromhidrosis. Our findings suggest that topical glycopyrrolate has an excellent safety profile and demonstrate encouraging results for the management of this distressful condition.

Keywords: Bromhidrosis, glycopyrrolate, topical treatment, osmidrosis

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4358 The Effects of Physician-Family Communication from the Point View of Clinical Staff

Authors: Lu-Chiu Huang, Pei-Pei Chen, Li-Chin Yu, Chiao-Wen Kuo, Tsui-Tao Liu, Rung-Chuang Feng

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Purpose: People put increasing emphasis on demands of medical quality and protecting their interests. Patients' or family's dissatisfaction with medical care may easily lead to medical dispute. Physician-family communication plays an essential role in medical care. A sound communication cannot only strengthen patients' belief in the medical team but make patient have definite insight into treatment course of the disease. A family meeting provides an effective platform for communication between clinical staff, patients and family. Decisions and consensuses formed in family meetings can promote patients' or family's satisfaction with medical care. Clinical staff's attitudes toward family meeting may determine behavioral intentions to hold family meeting. This study aims to explore clinical staff's difficulties in holding family meeting and evaluate how their attitudes and behavior influence the effect of family meetings. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. It was conducted at a regional teaching hospital in Taipei city. The research team developed its own structural questionnaires, whose expert validity was checked by the nursing experts. Participants filled in the questionnaires online. Data were collected by convenience sampling. A total of 568 participants were invited. They included doctors, nurses, social workers, and so on. Results: 1) The average score of ‘clinical staff’s attitudes to family meetings’ was 5.15 (SD=0.898). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. It indicated that clinical staff had positive attitudes toward family meetings, 2) The average score of ‘clinical staff’s behavior to family meetings’ was 5.61 (SD=0.937). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. It meant clinical staff tended to have positive behavior at the family meeting, and 3) The average score of ‘Difficulty in conducting family meetings’ was 5.15 (SD=0.897). It fell between ‘somewhat agree’ and ‘mostly agree’ on the 7-point likert scale. The higher the score was, the less difficulty the clinical staff felt. It demonstrated clinical staff felt less difficulty in conducting family meetings. Clinical staff's identification with family meetings brought favored effects. Persistent and active promotion for family meetings can bring patients and family more benefits. Implications for practice: Understanding clinical staff's difficulty in participating family meeting and exploring their attitudes or behavior toward physician-family communication are helpful to develop modes of interaction. Consequently, quality and satisfaction of physician-family communication can be increased.

Keywords: clinical staff, communication, family meeting, physician-family

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4357 Neurocognitive and Executive Function in Cocaine Addicted Females

Authors: Gwendolyn Royal-Smith

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Cocaine ranks as one of the world’s most addictive and commonly abused stimulant drugs. Recent evidence indicates that the abuse of cocaine has risen so quickly among females that this group now accounts for about 40 percent of all users in the United States. Neuropsychological studies have demonstrated that specific neural activation patterns carry higher risks for neurocognitive and executive function in cocaine addicted females thereby increasing their vulnerability for poorer treatment outcomes and more frequent post-treatment relapse when compared to males. This study examined secondary data with a convenience sample of 164 cocaine addicted male and females to assess neurocognitive and executive function. The principal objective of this study was to assess whether individual performance on the Stroop Word Color Task is predictive of treatment success by gender. A second objective of the study evaluated whether individual performance employing neurocognitive measures including the Stroop Word-Color task, the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RALVT), the Iowa Gambling Task, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WISCT), the total score from the Barratte Impulsiveness Scale (Version 11) (BIS-11) and the total score from the Frontal Systems Behavioral Scale (FrSBE) test demonstrated differences in neurocognitive and executive function performance by gender. Logistic regression models were employed utilizing a covariate adjusted model application. Initial analyses of the Stroop Word color tasks indicated significant differences in the performance of males and females, with females experiencing more challenges in derived interference reaction time and associate recall ability. In early testing including the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RALVT), the number of advantageous vs disadvantageous cards from the Iowa Gambling Task, the number of perseverance errors from the Wisconsin Card Sorting Task (WISCT), the total score from the Barratte Impulsiveness Scale (Version 11) (BIS-11) and the total score from the Frontal Systems Behavioral Scale, results were mixed with women scoring lower in multiple indicators in both neurocognitive and executive function.

Keywords: cocaine addiction, gender, neuropsychology, neurocognitive, executive function

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4356 Radiation Emission from Ultra-Relativistic Plasma Electrons in Short-Pulse Laser Light Interactions

Authors: R. Ondarza-Rovira, T. J. M. Boyd

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Intense femtosecond laser light incident on over-critical density plasmas has shown to emit a prolific number of high-order harmonics of the driver frequency, with spectra characterized by power-law decays Pm ~ m-p, where m denotes the harmonic order and p the spectral decay index. When the laser pulse is p-polarized, plasma effects do modify the harmonic spectrum, weakening the so-called universal decay with p=8/3 to p=5/3, or below. In this work, appeal is made to a single particle radiation model in support of the predictions from particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. Using this numerical technique we further show that the emission radiated by electrons -that are relativistically accelerated by the laser field inside the plasma, after being expelled into vacuum, the so-called Brunel electrons is characterized not only by the plasma line but also by ultraviolet harmonic orders described by the 5/3 decay index. Results obtained from these simulations suggest that for ultra-relativistic light intensities, the spectral decay index is further reduced, with p now in the range 2/3 ≤ p ≤ 4/3. This reduction is indicative of a transition from the regime where Brunel-induced plasma radiation influences the spectrum to one dominated by bremsstrahlung emission from the Brunel electrons.

Keywords: ultra-relativistic, laser-plasma interactions, high-order harmonic emission, radiation, spectrum

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4355 The Survey of Sexual Health and Pornography among Divorce-Asking Women in West Azerbaijan-Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Soheila Rabiepoor, Elham Sadeghi

Abstract:

Introduction: Divorce is both a personal and a social issue. Nowadays, due to various factors such as rapid social, economical, and cultural changes, the family structure has undergone many rough changes, out of 3 marriages 2 of them lead to divorce. One of the factors affecting the incidence of divorce and relationship problems between couples is the sexual and marital behaviors. There are several different reasons to suspect that pornography might affect divorce in either a positive or a negative way. Therefore this study evaluated the sexual health of divorce-asking in Urmia, Iran. Methods: This was a cross-sectional descriptive study and was conducted on 71 married women of Urmia, Iran in 2016. Participants were applicants of divorce (referred to divorce center) who were selected by using convenient sampling method. Data gathering tool included the scales for measuring demographic, sexual health (sexual satisfaction and function), and researcher made pornography questions. Data were analyzed based on the SPSS 16 software. P-values less than 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Investigation of demographic features showed that age average of studied samples was 28.98 ± 7.44, with a marriage duration average 8.12 ± 6.53 years (min 1 year/ max 28 years). Most of their education was at diploma (45.1%). 69 % of the women declared their income and expenditure as equal. Nearly 42% of women and 59% of their partner had watched sexual pornography clips. 45.5% of participants reported that they compared own sexual relationship with sexual pornography clips. In the other hand, sexual satisfaction total score was 51.50 ± 17.92. The mean total sexual function score was 16.62 ± 10.58. According to these findings, most of women were experienced sexual dissatisfaction and dysfunction. Conclusions: The results of the study indicated that who had low sexual satisfaction score, had higher rate of watching pornography clips. Based on current study, paying attention to family education and counseling programs especially in the sexual field will be more fruitful.

Keywords: divorce-asking, pornography, sexual satisfaction, sexual function, women

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4354 Graph Clustering Unveiled: ClusterSyn - A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Anti-Cancer Drug Synergy Scores

Authors: Babak Bahri, Fatemeh Yassaee Meybodi, Changiz Eslahchi

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In the pursuit of effective cancer therapies, the exploration of combinatorial drug regimens is crucial to leverage synergistic interactions between drugs, thereby improving treatment efficacy and overcoming drug resistance. However, identifying synergistic drug pairs poses challenges due to the vast combinatorial space and limitations of experimental approaches. This study introduces ClusterSyn, a machine learning (ML)-powered framework for classifying anti-cancer drug synergy scores. ClusterSyn employs a two-step approach involving drug clustering and synergy score prediction using a fully connected deep neural network. For each cell line in the training dataset, a drug graph is constructed, with nodes representing drugs and edge weights denoting synergy scores between drug pairs. Drugs are clustered using the Markov clustering (MCL) algorithm, and vectors representing the similarity of drug pairs to each cluster are input into the deep neural network for synergy score prediction (synergy or antagonism). Clustering results demonstrate effective grouping of drugs based on synergy scores, aligning similar synergy profiles. Subsequently, neural network predictions and synergy scores of the two drugs on others within their clusters are used to predict the synergy score of the considered drug pair. This approach facilitates comparative analysis with clustering and regression-based methods, revealing the superior performance of ClusterSyn over state-of-the-art methods like DeepSynergy and DeepDDS on diverse datasets such as Oniel and Almanac. The results highlight the remarkable potential of ClusterSyn as a versatile tool for predicting anti-cancer drug synergy scores.

Keywords: drug synergy, clustering, prediction, machine learning., deep learning

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4353 Financial Inclusion for Inclusive Growth in an Emerging Economy

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, William Chimee Nwaoha

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The paper set out to stress on how financial inclusion index could be calculated and also investigated the impact of inclusive finance on inclusive growth in an emerging economy. In the light of these objectives, chi-wins method was used to calculate indexes of financial inclusion while co-integration and error correction model were used for evaluation of the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth. The result of the analysis revealed that financial inclusion while having a long-run relationship with GDP growth is an insignificant function of the growth of the economy. The speed of adjustment is correctly signed and significant. On the basis of these results, the researchers called for tireless efforts of government and banking sector in promoting financial inclusion in developing countries.

Keywords: chi-wins index, co-integration, error correction model, financial inclusion

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4352 Heavy Metal Contamination of a Dumpsite Environment as Assessed with Pollution Indices

Authors: Olubunmi S. Shittu, Olufemi J. Ayodele, Augustus O. A. Ilori, Abidemi O. Filani, Adetola T. Afuye

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Indiscriminate refuse dumping in and around Ado-Ekiti combined with improper management of few available dumpsites, such as Ilokun dumpsite, posed the threat of heavy metals pollution in the surrounding soils and underground water that needs assessment using pollution indices. Surface soils (0-15 cm) were taken from the centre of Ilokun dumpsite (0 m) and environs at different directions and distances during the dry and wet seasons, as well as a background sample at 1000 m away, adjacent to the dumpsite at Ilokun, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. The concentration of heavy metals used to calculate the pollution indices for the soils were determined using Atomic Adsorption Spectrophotometer. The soils recorded high concentrations of all the heavy metals above the background concentrations irrespective of the season with highest concentrations at the 0 m except Ni and Fe at 50 m during the dry and wet season, respectively. The heavy metals concentration were in the order of Ni > Mn > Pb > Cr > Cu > Cd > Fe during the dry season, and Fe > Cr > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cd > Mn during the wet season. Using the Contamination Factor (CF), the soils were classified to be moderately contaminated with Cd and Fe to very high contamination with other metals during the dry season and low Cd contamination (0.87), moderate contamination with Fe, Pb, Mn and Ni and very high contamination with Cr and Cu during the wet season. At both seasons, the Pollution Load Index (PLI) indicates the soils to be generally polluted with heavy metals and the Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo) calculated shown the soils to be in unpolluted to moderately polluted levels. Enrichment Factor (EF) implied the soils to be deficiently enriched with all the heavy metals except Cr (7.90) and Cu (6.42) that were at significantly enrichment levels during the wet season. Modified Degree of Contamination (mCd) recorded, indicated the soils to be of very high to extremely high degree of contamination during the dry season and moderate degree of contamination during the wet season except 0 m with high degree of contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in the soils combined with some of the pollution indices indicated the soils in and around the Ilokun Dumpsite are being polluted with heavy metals from anthropogenic sources constituted by the indiscriminate refuse dumping.

Keywords: contamination factor, enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, modified degree of contamination, pollution load index

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4351 The Relationship between Basic Human Needs and Opportunity Based on Social Progress Index

Authors: Ebru Ozgur Guler, Huseyin Guler, Sera Sanli

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Social Progress Index (SPI) whose fundamentals have been thrown in the World Economy Forum is an index which aims to form a systematic basis for guiding strategy for inclusive growth which requires achieving both economic and social progress. In this research, it has been aimed to determine the relations among “Basic Human Needs” (BHN) (including four variables of ‘Nutrition and Basic Medical Care’, ‘Water and Sanitation’, ‘Shelter’ and ‘Personal Safety’) and “Opportunity” (OPT) (that is composed of ‘Personal Rights’, ‘Personal Freedom and Choice’, ‘Tolerance and Inclusion’, and ‘Access to Advanced Education’ components) dimensions of 2016 SPI for 138 countries which take place in the website of Social Progress Imperative by carrying out canonical correlation analysis (CCA) which is a data reduction technique that operates in a way to maximize the correlation between two variable sets. In the interpretation of results, the first pair of canonical variates pointing to the highest canonical correlation has been taken into account. The first canonical correlation coefficient has been found as 0.880 indicating to the high relationship between BHN and OPT variable sets. Wilk’s Lambda statistic has revealed that an overall effect of 0.809 is highly large for the full model in order to be counted as statistically significant (with a p-value of 0.000). According to the standardized canonical coefficients, the largest contribution to BHN set of variables has come from ‘shelter’ variable. The most effective variable in OPT set has been detected to be ‘access to advanced education’. Findings based on canonical loadings have also confirmed these results with respect to the contributions to the first canonical variates. When canonical cross loadings (structure coefficients) are examined, for the first pair of canonical variates, the largest contributions have been provided by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’ variables. Since the signs for structure coefficients have been found to be negative for all variables; all OPT set of variables are positively related to all of the BHN set of variables. In case canonical communality coefficients which are the sum of the squares of structure coefficients across all interpretable functions are taken as the basis; amongst all variables, ‘personal rights’ and ‘tolerance and inclusion’ variables can be said not to be useful in the model with 0.318721 and 0.341722 coefficients respectively. On the other hand, while redundancy index for BHN set has been found to be 0.615; OPT set has a lower redundancy index with 0.475. High redundancy implies high ability for predictability. The proportion of the total variation in BHN set of variables that is explained by all of the opposite canonical variates has been calculated as 63% and finally, the proportion of the total variation in OPT set that is explained by all of the canonical variables in BHN set has been determined as 50.4% and a large part of this proportion belongs to the first pair. The results suggest that there is a high and statistically significant relationship between BHN and OPT. This relationship is generally accounted by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’.

Keywords: canonical communality coefficient, canonical correlation analysis, redundancy index, social progress index

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4350 Impact of Bio Preparations on Agro-Chemical Indexes and Fruit Mineral Composition of Mandarin (Citrus Reticulata) Orchard

Authors: Nunu Nakashidze, Shota Lominadze, Darejan Jashi

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Citrus culture used to be one of the leading fields of sub-tropical agriculture in Georgia and especially in Adjara region, but the citrus production has been significantly decreased in recent years due to deterioration of quality index of fruit and reduction of sale markets. The fact severely affected both the economy of Republic and population. Intensive technologies of citrus fruit production are widely implemented in the world practices, which include the following: variety of species, consumption of fertilizers and chemicals, proper use of fruit production and etc. However working on technologies which ensure getting of high quality and plentiful product is very much important if taking into consideration modern, global ecological problems. Using of bio-preparations for plant nourishment is considered as one of the activities. The present work discusses liquid organic fertilizer 'Biorag' produced in Georgia and influence of its growth stimulation (Gakhokidze N1, N2, N3) on agrochemical index of soils and mineral composition of fruit of Citrus Unshiu orchards cultivated in the sub-tropical zone of Black Sea in Adjara region. It was ascertained that liquid organic fertilizers used in the orchard of citrus 'Unshiu' and influence of growth stimulators on the quality index of fruit are not clearly shown in comparison with control one. A small priority is noticed in case of growth stimulators. In conditions of red soils, liquid organic fertilizers and growth stimulators added in the nutrition of the citrus more or less influence the dry material of fruit and the composition of ash and nutrition elements. Agro-chemical index of the soil, except exchange acidity, is somehow enlarged which is one of the positive results in this case.

Keywords: growth stimulator, liquid fertilizer, plant, fruit, soil

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4349 Efficient Tuning Parameter Selection by Cross-Validated Score in High Dimensional Models

Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

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As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an "optimal" value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: cross validation, parameter averaging, parameter selection, regularization parameter search

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4348 Comparison of Computed Tomography Dose Index, Dose Length Product and Effective Dose Among Male and Female Patients From Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography Pancreatitis Protocol

Authors: Babina Aryal

Abstract:

Background: The diagnosis of pancreatitis is generally based on clinical and laboratory findings; however, Computed Tomography (CT) is an imaging technique of choice specially Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography (CECT) shows morphological characteristic findings that allow for establishing the diagnosis of pancreatitis and determining the extent of disease severity which is done along with the administration of appropriate contrast medium. The purpose of this study was to compare Computed Tomography Dose Index (CTDI), Dose Length Product (DLP) and Effective Dose (ED) among male and female patients from Contrast Enhanced Computed Tomography (CECT) Pancreatitis Protocol. Methods: This retrospective study involved data collection based on clinical/laboratory/ultrasonography diagnosis of Pancreatitis and has undergone CECT Abdomen pancreatitis protocol. data collection involved detailed information about a patient's Age and Gender, Clinical history, Individual Computed Tomography Dose Index and Dose Length Product and effective dose. Results: We have retrospectively collected dose data from 150 among which 127 were males and 23 were females. The values obtained from the display of the CT screen were measured, calculated and compared to determine whether the CTDI, DLP and ED values were similar or not. CTDI for females was more as compared to males. The differences in CTDI values for females and males were 32.2087 and 37.1609 respectively. DLP values and Effective dose for both the genders did not show significant differences. Conclusion: This study concluded that there were no more significant changes in the DLP and ED values among both the genders however we noticed that female patients had more CTDI than males.

Keywords: computed tomography, contrast enhanced computed tomography, computed tomography dose index, dose length product, effective dose

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4347 Digital Planet: Readying for the Rise of the E-Consumer

Authors: Bhaskar Chakravorti, Christopher Tunnard, Ravi Shankar Chaturvedi

Abstract:

This report introduces the Digital Evolution Index (DEI) as a way to gauge the transformation of economies in the advanced and developing world from traditional brick-and-mortar to digitally enabled. The DEI measures the digital trajectories of 50 countries to provide actionable, data-informed insights for businesses, investors and policymakers. Created by The Fletcher School, in collaboration with MasterCard Worldwide and DataCash, the DEI analyzes the key underlying drivers and barriers that govern a country’s evolution into a digital economy: Demand, Supply, Institutional Environment and Innovation. A longitudinal analysis of these four drivers during the years 2008 to 2013 reveals both the current state of a country’s digital economy, as well as changes over time. Combining these two measures allows us to assign each country to one of four Trajectory Zones: • Stand Out countries have shown high levels of digital development in the past and continue to remain on an upward trajectory. • Stall Out countries have achieved a high level of evolution in the past but are losing momentum and risk falling behind. • Break Out countries have the potential to develop strong digital economies. Though their overall score is still low, they are moving upward and are poised to become Stand Out countries in the future. • Watch Out countries face significant opportunities and challenges, with low scores on both current level and upward motion of their DEI. Some may be able to overcome limitations with clever innovations and stopgap measures, while others seem to be stuck.

Keywords: e-commerce, digital evolution, digital commerce ecosystems, e-consumer

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4346 Effect of Probiotic (RE3) Supplement on Growth Performance, Diarrhea Incidence and Blood Parameters of N'dama Calves

Authors: Y. Abdul Aziz, E. L. K. Osafo, S. O. Apori, A. Osman

Abstract:

A sixteen week trial was conducted at the Research Farm (Technology Village) of the Department of Animal Science, School of Agriculture, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana. This study sought to investigate the effects of Probiotic (RE3) on growth performance, diarrhea incidence and blood parameters of N’dama calves. Sixteen N’dama calves aged 3 months of an average initial weight of 44.2 kg were randomly assigned to one of four dietary treatments according to their body weight, age, and sex. Treatment 1 (T1) serve as a control animal (No RE3 supplementation). Treatment 2 (T2) receives 0.03 ml RE3 per kg body weight. Treatment 3 (T3) receives 0.06 ml RE3 per kg body weight, and Treatment 4 (T4) also receives 0.09 ml RE3 per kg body weight in a Completely Randomize Design (CRD). There were 4 replicates per treatment. The calves were allowed access to feed and water ad libitum. The body weight of the calves was recorded at the start of the experiment and thereafter regularly at two weeks interval. Weighing was done early morning before the calves are allowed to access feed and water and were also observed in their pens for occurrence of diarrhea and faecal scores recorded. Blood samples were obtained from each calf at the end of the study through jugular vein puncture. Supplementation of RE3 to calves had showed a beneficial effect by reducing the incidence of diarrhea. The highest faecal score was recorded in T1 and the least faecal score was recorded in T3. There was significant difference (P < 0.05) in the faecal score between the treatment group and the control after two weeks of the experiment. There was no significant difference (P > 0.05) in the average daily gain of the animals. Hematological and biochemical indices of calves were all within the normal range except in treatments (1, 3 and 4) which recorded high White Blood Cell (WBC) count with no significant difference (P > 0.05).

Keywords: probiotics (RE3), diarrhea incidence, blood parameters, N’dama calves

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4345 The Effectiveness of Using Dramatic Conventions as the Teaching Strategy on Self-Efficacy for Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: Tso Sheng-Yang, Wang Tien-Ni

Abstract:

Introduction and Purpose: Previous researchers have documented children with ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorders) prefer to escaping internal privates and external privates when they face tough conditions they can’t control or they don’t like.Especially, when children with ASD need to learn challenging tasks, such us Chinese language, their inappropriate behaviors will occur apparently. Recently, researchers apply positive behavior support strategies for children with ASD to enhance their self-efficacy and therefore to reduce their adverse behaviors. Thus, the purpose of this research was to design a series of lecture based on art therapy and to evaluate its effectiveness on the child’s self-efficacy. Method: This research was the single-case design study that recruited a high school boy with ASD. Whole research can be separated into three conditions. First, baseline condition, before the class started and ended, the researcher collected participant’s competencies of self-efficacy every session. In intervention condition, the research used dramatic conventions to teach the child in Chinese language twice a week.When the data was stable across three documents, the period entered to the maintenance condition. In maintenance condition, the researcher only collected the score of self-efficacynot to do other interventions five times a month to represent the effectiveness of maintenance.The time and frequency of data collection among three conditions are identical. Concerning art therapy, the common approach, e.g., music, drama, or painting is to use art medium as independent variable. Due to visual cues of art medium, the ASD can be easily to gain joint attention with teachers. Besides, the ASD have difficulties in understanding abstract objectives Thus, using the drama convention is helpful for the ASD to construct the environment and understand the context of Classical Chinese. By real operation, it can improve the ASD to understand the context and construct prior knowledge. Result: Bassd on the 10-points Likert scale and research, we product following results. (a) In baseline condition, the average score of self-efficacyis 1.12 points, rangedfrom 1 to 2 points, and the level change is 0 point. (b)In intervention condition, the average score of self-efficacy is 7.66 points rangedfrom 7 to 9 points, and the level change is 1 point. (c)In maintenance condition, the average score of self-efficacy is 6.66 points rangedfrom 6 to 7 points, and the level change is 1 point. Concerning immediacy of change, between baseline and intervention conditions, the difference is 5 points. No overlaps were found between these two conditions. Conclusion: According to the result, we find that it is effective that using dramatic conventions a s teaching strategies to teach children with ASD. The result presents the score of self-efficacyimmediately enhances when the dramatic conventions commences. Thus, we suggest the teacher can use this approach and adjust, based on the student’s trait, to teach the ASD on difficult task.

Keywords: dramatic conventions, autism spectrum disorder, slef-efficacy, teaching strategy

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4344 Effect of Family-Based DOTS Support Program on Adherence to Health Behaviors among Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Bandung, Indonesia

Authors: D. I. Yani, S. Isaramalai, C. Kritpracha

Abstract:

Adherence to health behaviors is essential to achieve successful TB treatment. This study aimed to examine the effect of a family-based DOTS support program on adherence to health behaviors in patients with pulmonary TB. Sixty TB patients and their families were selected using cluster randomization of community health centers. The subjects were assigned into a control group, who received the routine care, and an experimental group, who received both routine care and care from the family-based DOTS support program. Paired t-test and the independent t-test were applied. The total score of adherence to health behaviors in the experimental group was significantly higher after receiving care from the family-based DOTS support program than the pretest score (t = -10.34, p < .001). Suggestions were made to expand the application of this program in various contexts and to extend knowledge for nursing practices and research.

Keywords: self-care deficit nursing theory, family-based DOTS program, pulmonary tuberculosis, adherence, health behaviors

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4343 Cognitive Function During the First Two Hours of Spravato Administration in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder

Authors: Jocelyn Li, Xiangyang Li

Abstract:

We have employed THINC-it® to study the acute effects of Spravato on the cognitive function of patients with severe major depression disorder (MDD). The scores of the four tasks (Spotter, Symbol Check, Code Breaker, Trails) found in THINC-it® were used to measure cognitive function throughout treatment. The patients who participated in this study have tried more than 3 antidepressants without significant improvement before they began Spravato treatment. All patients received 3 doses of 28 mg Spravato 5 minutes apart (84 mg total per treatment) during this study with THINC-it®. The data were collected before the first Spravato administration (T0), 1 hour after the first Spravato administration (T1), and 2 hours after the first Spravato administration (T2) during each treatment. The following data were from 13 patients, with a total of 226 trials in a 2-3 month period. Spravato at 84 mg reduced the scores of Trails, Code Breaker, Symbol Check, and Spotter at T1 by 10-20% in all patients with one exception for a minority of patients in Spotter. At T2, the scores of Trails, Symbol Check, and Spotter were back to 97% of T0 while the score of Code Breaker was back to 92%. Interestingly, we found that the score of Spotter was consistently increased by 17% at T1 in the same 30% of patients in each treatment. We called this change reverse response while the pattern of the other patients, a decline (T1) and then recovery (T2), was called non-reverse response. We also compared the scores at T0 between the first visit and the fifth visit. The T0 scores of all four tasks were improved at visit 5 when compared to visit 1. The scores of Trails, Code Breaker, and Symbol Check at T0 were increased by 14%, 33%, and 14% respectively at visit 5. The score of Code Breaker, which had two trends, improved by 9% in reverse response patients compared to a 27% improvement in non-reverse response patients. To our knowledge, this is the first study done on the impact of Spravato on cognitive function change in major depression patients at this time frame. Whether we can predict future responses to Spravato with THINC-it® merits further study.

Keywords: Spravato, THINC-it, major depressive disorder, cognitive function

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4342 Outcome of Induction of Labour by Cervical Ripening with an Osmotic Dilator in a District General Hospital

Authors: A. Wahid Uddin

Abstract:

Osmotic dilator for cervical ripening bypasses the initial hormonal exposure necessary for a routine method of induction. The study was a clinical intervention with an osmotic dilator followed by prospective observation. The aim was to calculate the percentage of women who had successful cervical ripening using modified BISHOP score as evidenced by artificial rupture of membrane. The study also estimated the delivery interval following a single administration of osmotic dilators. Randomly selected patients booked for induction of labour accepting the intervention were included in the study. The study population comprised singleton term pregnancy, cephalic presentation, intact membranes with a modified BISHOP score of less than 6. Initial sample recruited was 30, but 6 patients left the study and the study was concluded on 24 patients. The data were collected in a pre-designed questionnaire and analysis were expressed in percentages along with using mean value for continuous variables. In 70 % of cases, artificial rupture of the membrane was possible and the mean time from insertion of the osmotic dilator to the delivery interval was 30 hours. The study concluded that an osmotic dilator could be a suitable alternative for hormone-based induction of labour.

Keywords: dilator, induction, labour, osmotic

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4341 Soil Compaction by a Forwarder in Timber Harvesting

Authors: Juang R. Matangaran, Erianto I. Putra, Iis Diatin, Muhammad Mujahid, Qi Adlan

Abstract:

Industrial plantation forest is the producer of logs in Indonesia. Several companies of industrial plantation forest have been successfully planted with fast-growing species, and it entered their annual harvesting period. Heavy machines such as forwarders are used in timber harvesting to extract logs from stump to landing site. The negative impact of using such machines are loss of topsoil and soil compaction. Compacted soil is considered unfavorable for plant growth. The research objectives were to analyze the soil bulk density, rut, and cone index of the soil caused by a forwarder passes, to analyze the relation between several times of forwarder passes to the increase of soil bulk density. A Valmet forwarder was used in this research. Soil bulk density at soil surface and cone index from the soil surface to the 50 cm depth of soil were measured at the harvested area. The result showed that soil bulk density increase with the increase of the Valmet forwarder passes. Maximum soil bulk density occurred after 5 times forwarder Valmet passed. The cone index tended to increase from the surface until 50 cm depth of soil. Rut formed and high soil bulk density indicated the soil compaction occurred by the forwarder operation.

Keywords: bulk density, forwarder Valmet, plantation forest, soil compaction, timber harvesting

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4340 Comparison of Small Ruminants (Sheep) Production Efficiency of Nomadic and Transhumance Flocks in Malakand, Pakistan

Authors: Akbar Nawaz Khan, Abdul Ghaffar, Abdur Rehman, Muhammad Naeem Riaz, Sayed Muhammad Hassan Andrabi

Abstract:

The present study was conducted to compare sheep rearing in nomadic with transhumance system in term of production parameters. The following parameters which studied for comparison were household size, landholding area, flock size, body condition score, fecal egg count and live weight change in sheep under nomadic and transhumance systems of management in Malakand since October 2010 to March 2011. Further the effects of Body Condition Score (BCS) and Fecal Egg Count (FEC) on production were also examined. Two systems were checked for the purpose to check the efficiency of production. A total of eight flocks, four each from nomadic and transhumance system were selected for the study; each flock was divided into treatment and controlled groups to check the effect of treatment or de-wormers. A total of 160 animals were selected randomly (80 treated, 80 controlled). The adult ram average weight transhumance system was 55.58 kg while in nomadic that was 54.16 kg, weight change was positive, and the highest change was recorded in transhumance treated which was 13%. Fecal egg count was record low (75 EPG) in transhumance treated group while high (330 EPG) in nomadic controlled. Body condition score was recorded 3.6 for transhumance treated and 3.32 for nomadic treated. It is concluded from the present study that transhumance system performed significantly (p < 0.05) better in respect of live weight, BCS, FEC, family size, Landholding area, number of animals in a flock, offspring record, culling, and mortality. Mean values are 7.367 ± 0221, 0.900 ± 0.071, 63.167 ± 1.559, 55.600 ± 1.480, 8.300 ± 0.321 and 2.500 ± 0.158 respectively. De-wormer effect on FEC showed a significant reduction in egg load in mature sheep on both systems.

Keywords: small ruminant, sheep, nomadic, transhumance, Malakand, production efficiency

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4339 Identification of Ideal Plain Sufu (Fermented Soybean Curds) Based on Ideal Profile Method and Assessment of the Consistency of Ideal Profiles Obtained from Consumers

Authors: Yan Ping Chen, Hau Yin Chung

Abstract:

The Ideal Profile Method (IPM) is a newly developed descriptive sensory analysis conducted by consumers without previous training. To perform this test, both the perceived and the ideal intensities from the judgements of consumers on products’ attributes, as well as their hedonic ratings were collected for formulating an ideal product (the most liked one). In addition, Ideal Profile Analysis (IPA) was conducted to check the consistency of the ideal data at both the panel and consumer levels. In this test, 12 commercial plain sufus bought from Hong Kong local market were tested by 113 consumers according to the IPM, and rated on 22 attributes. Principal component analysis was used to profile the perceived and the ideal spaces of tested products. The consistency of ideal data was then checked by IPA. The result showed that most consumers shared a common ideal. It was observed that the sensory product space and the ideal product space were structurally similar. Their first dimensions all opposed products with intense fermented related aroma to products with less fermented related aroma. And the predicted ideal profile (the estimated liking score around 7.0 in a 9.0-point scale) got higher hedonic score than the tested products (the average liking score around 6.0 in a 9.0-point scale). For the majority of consumers (95.2%), the stated ideal product considered as a potential ideal through checking the R2 coefficient value. Among all the tested products, sample-6 was the most popular one with consumer liking percentage around 30%. This product with less fermented and moldy flavour but easier to melt in mouth texture possessed close sensory profile according to the ideal product. This experiment validated that data from untrained consumers could be guided as useful information. Appreciated sensory characteristics could be served as reference in the optimization of the commercial plain sufu.

Keywords: ideal profile method, product development, sensory evaluation, sufu (fermented soybean curd)

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4338 The Effect of Taekwondo on Plantar Pressure Distribution and Arch Index

Authors: Maryam Kakavand, Samira Entezari, Sara Khoshjamalfekri, Raghad Mimar

Abstract:

The objective of this study is 1) to compare elite female and beginner taekwondo players in terms of plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure, and right and left longitudinal arches, and 2) to compare preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite players. To the best of authors’ knowledge, as of yet, there is no information available about the plantar pressure distribution and arch index among taekwondo players. Material and Methods: An analytical-comparative research method is applied. Therefore seven elite athletes and eight novice athletes were selected. The emed-C50 platform was used to assess plantar pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, contact area, mean pressure of different areas, and planter longitudinal arch in a second step protocol. Independent t-test and dependent t-test were used at a level of 0.05 to compare the elites and beginners' right and left feet, and preferred and non-preferred limbs among elite athletes, respectively. Results: In comparing the right and left limbs of elite and beginner groups, findings indicate that there is only a significant difference in the mean pressure of the first metatarsal of the right foot. Findings also showed a significant difference in the contact area of the toes 3, 4, 5 regions between elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs. However, no significant difference was found between the two groups’ right and left limbs and elites’ preferred and non-preferred limbs in terms of pressure distribution, vertical ground reaction force, and arch index. Conclusion: It seems that taekwondo exercises have affected pressure distribution patterns among advanced players causing some differences in their planter pressure distribution pattern when compared to that of beginners. Therefore, taekwondo exercises may be a factor contributing to asymmetry performance in preferred and non-preferred limbs.

Keywords: planter pressure, arch index, taekwondo, elite

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4337 Multi-Indicator Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Trends in Ethiopia: Implications for Dry Land Agriculture and Food Security

Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

Abstract:

Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 128