Search results for: Chronic heart disease
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5280

Search results for: Chronic heart disease

4470 Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Physicians’ Adherence to the American Diabetes Association Guideline in Central Region, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Ibrahim Mohammed

Abstract:

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that can cause devastating secondary complications, reducing the quality and length of life as well as increasing medical costs for the patient and society. The guidelines recommend both clinical and preventive strategies for diabetes management and are regularly updated. The aim of the study is to assess the level of adherence of physicians to American Diabetes Association Guidelines. Method: Observational multicenter retrospective study will be conducted among different hospitals in the central region. Patient data will be collected from the records of the last three years (2017- 2020). Records will be selected randomly after a complete randomized design. The study focuses on the management of type 2 according to ADA not changed in the last three updating; those standards; all patients should be taking Metformin 1500 to 2000 mg/day as recommended dose and should be received a high dose of statin if the high risk to ASCVD or moderate statin if not at risk, patients with hypertension and diabetes should taking ACE or ARBS. Result: The study aimed to evaluate the commitment of physicians in the central region to the ADA. Out of the 153 selected patients, only 17 % were able to control their diabetes with an average A1c below 7. ADA stated that to reach the minimum benefit of using Metformin, the daily dose should be between 1500 and 2000 mg. Results showed that 110 patients were on Metformin, where 68% of them were on the recommended dose. ADA recommended the intake of high statin for diabetic patients with ASCVD risk, while diabetic patients without ASCVD risk should be on a moderate statin. Results showed that 61.5% of patients with ASCVD risk were at high statin while only 36% of patients without ASCVD risk were at moderate statin. Results showed that 89 patients have hypertension, and 80% of them are getting ACE/ARBs as recommended by the ADA. Recommendation: It is necessary to implement periodic training courses for some physicians to enhance and update their knowledge.

Keywords: American Diabetic Association, diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ACE inhibitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
4469 Interpretation and Clustering Framework for Analyzing ECG Survey Data

Authors: Irum Matloob, Shoab Ahmad Khan, Fahim Arif

Abstract:

As Indo-Pak has been the victim of heart diseases since many decades. Many surveys showed that percentage of cardiac patients is increasing in Pakistan day by day, and special attention is needed to pay on this issue. The framework is proposed for performing detailed analysis of ECG survey data which is conducted for measuring prevalence of heart diseases statistics in Pakistan. The ECG survey data is evaluated or filtered by using automated Minnesota codes and only those ECGs are used for further analysis which is fulfilling the standardized conditions mentioned in the Minnesota codes. Then feature selection is performed by applying proposed algorithm based on discernibility matrix, for selecting relevant features from the database. Clustering is performed for exposing natural clusters from the ECG survey data by applying spectral clustering algorithm using fuzzy c means algorithm. The hidden patterns and interesting relationships which have been exposed after this analysis are useful for further detailed analysis and for many other multiple purposes.

Keywords: arrhythmias, centroids, ECG, clustering, discernibility matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 459
4468 Relationship between Prolonged Timed up and Go Test and Worse Cardiometabolic Diseases Risk Factors Profile in a Population Aged 60-65 Years

Authors: Bartłomiej K. Sołtysik, Agnieszka Guligowska, Łukasz Kroc, Małgorzata Pigłowska, Elizavetta Fife, Tomasz Kostka

Abstract:

Introduction: Functional capacity is one of the basic determinants of health in older age. Functional capacity may be influenced by multiple disorders, including cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Nevertheless, there is relatively little evidence regarding the association of functional status and cardiometabolic risk factors. Aim: The aim of this research is to check possible association between functional capacity and cardiovascular risk factor in a group of younger seniors. Materials and Methods: The study group consisted of 300 participants aged 60-65 years (50% were women). Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, uric acid, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and blood pressure were measured. Smoking status and physical activity level (by Seven Day Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire ) were analysed. Functional status was assessed with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) Test. The data were compared according to gender, and then separately for both sexes regarding prolonged TUG score (>7 s). The limit of significance was set at p≤0.05 for all analyses. Results: Women presented with higher serum lipids and longer TUG. Men had higher blood pressure, glucose, uric acid, the prevalence of hypertension and history of heart infarct. In women group, those with prolonged TUG displayed significantly higher obesity rate (BMI, WHTR), uric acid, hypertension and ischemic heart disease (IHD), but lower physical activity level, TC or LDL-C. Men with prolonged TUG were heavier smokers, had higher TG, lower HDL and presented with higher prevalence of diabetes and IHD. Discussion: This study shows association between functional status and risk profile of cardiometabolic disorders. In women, the relationship of lower functional status to cardiometabolic diseases may be mediated by overweight/obesity. In men, locomotor problems may be related to smoking. Higher education level may be considered as a protective factor regardless of gender.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, functional capacity, TUG test, seniors

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
4467 Self-Determination Needs, Coping Strategies and Quality of Life Among Chronic Non-Specific Lower Back Pain Patients

Authors: Zubana Afzal, Afsheen Massod

Abstract:

This quantitative study was carried out in order to explore the role of coping strategies as an explanatory mechanism in the relationship between self-determination needs and quality of life. A cross-sectional survey research design was conducted using scales such as the Basic Psychological Needs Scale (Deci&Ryan, 2000) to measure self-determination-based needs, Pain Coping Strategies Questionnaire (Harland &Georgieff, 2003), and Quality of Life Brief (The WHOQOL Group, 1998), in translated form in addition to a demographic information sheet. The sample comprised 120 (Women=63, Men=57), taken from different hospitals in Lahore, Multan, and Gojra. Descriptive and Inferential analyses were executed through SPSS version 23.00. All self-determination needs were found in result to be significantly and positively correlated with diversion and cognitive pain coping strategies, physical, psychological, social, and environmental quality of life, and significantly negatively correlated with catastrophizing and reinterpreting pain coping strategies. Cognitive and diversion pain coping strategies were found to be significantly and positively associated with all physical, psychological, social, and environmental quality of life. The regression analyses revealed that the strongest predictors were autonomy, cognitive and diversion pain coping strategies in predicting quality of life. All coping strategies except reinterpreting played a mediating role between self-determination needs and quality of life. The findings can lead to a better understanding of the role of self-determination needs and pain coping strategies in determining the quality of life among chronic non-specific lower back pain patients.

Keywords: quality of life, chronic lower back pain, coping strategies, self determination needs

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4466 3D-printing for Ablation Planning in Patients Undergoing Atrial Fibrillation Ablation: 3D-GALA Trial

Authors: Terentes Printzios Dimitrios, Loanna Gourgouli, Vlachopoulos Charalambos

Abstract:

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains one of the major causes of stroke, heart failure, sudden death and cardiovascular morbidity. Ablation techniques are becoming more appealing after the latest results of randomized trials showing the overall clinical benefit. On the other hand, imaging techniques and the frontier application of 3D printing are emerging as a valuable ally for cardiac procedures. However, no randomized trial has directly assessed the impact of preprocedural imaging and especially 3D printing guidance for AF ablation. The present study is designed to investigate for the first time the effect of 3D printing of the heart on the safety and effectiveness of the ablation procedure. Methods and design: The 3D-GALA trial is a randomized, open-label, controlled, multicentre clinical trial of 2 parallel groups designed to enroll a total of 100 patients undergoing ablation using cryo-balloon for paroxysmal and persistent AF. Patients will be randomized with a patient allocation ratio of 1: 1 to preprocedural MRI scan of the heart and 3D printing of left atrium and pulmonary veins and cryoablation versus standard cryoablation without imaging. Patients will be followed up to 6 months after the index procedure. The primary outcome measure is the reduction of radiation dose and contrast amount during pulmonary veins isolation. Secondary endpoints will include the percentage of atrial fibrillation relapse at 24h-Holter electrocardiogram monitoring at 6 months after initial treatment. Discussion: To our knowledge, the 3D-GALA trial will be the first study to provide evidence about the clinical impact of preprocedural imaging and 3D printing before cryoablation.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, cardiac MRI, cryoablation, 3-d printing

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
4465 Survey of Campylobacter Contamination in Poultry Meat and By-Products in Khuzestan Province

Authors: Ali Bagherpour, Masoud Soltanialvar

Abstract:

Campylobacter species are common bacterial pathogens associated with human gastroenteritis which are generally transmitted through foods of animal origin. This study was carried out to determine the prevalence of Campylobacter species in poultry meat and by products in the city of Dezful in Iran. Since April 2012 to July 2013, a total of 400 samples including meat (n = 100), liver (n = 100), gizzard (n = 100), and poultry heart (n = 100), were randomly collected from Dezful industrial poultry abattoir and were experimented in order to investigate presence of Campylobacter species. According to culture test, 251 samples out of 400 samples under study (69%) were contaminated with Campylobacter species. The highest prevalence of Campylobacter species was observed in poultry's liver (78.3%) and then in gizzard (75.8%), heart (65%) and meat (56.7%). The most common isolated Campylobacter were C. jejuni (90.9%) and the rest were C. coli (9.1%). There was a significant difference (P < 0.05) in the prevalence of Campylobacter species between the meat samples taken in the summer (86.7%). The results of this study indicate the importance of edible offal of poultries as the potential source of Campylobacter infections.

Keywords: Campylobacter jejuni, Campylobacter coli, poultry, meat, products

Procedia PDF Downloads 597
4464 Trigonella foenum-graecum Seeds Extract as Therapeutic Candidate for Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

Authors: Mai M. Farid, Ximeng Yang, Tomoharu Kuboyama, Yuna Inada, Chihiro Tohda

Abstract:

Intro: Trigonella foenum-graecum (Fenugreek), from Fabaceae family is a well-known plant traditionally used as food and medicine. Many pharmacological effects of Trigonella foenum- graecum seeds extract (TF extract) were evaluated such as anti-diabetic, anti-tumor and anti-dementia effects using in vivo models. Regarding the anti-dementia effects of TF extract, diabetic rats, aluminum chloride-induced amnesia rats and scopolamine-injected mice were used previously for evaluation, which are not well established as Alzheimer’s disease models. In addition, those previous studies, active constituents in TF extract for memory function were not identified. Method: This study aimed to clarify the effect of TF extract on Alzheimer’s disease model, 5XFAD mouse that overexpresses mutated APP and PS1 genes and determine the major active constituent in the brain after oral intake of TF extract. Results: Trigonelline was detected in the cerebral cortex of 5XFAD mice after 24 hours of oral administration of TF extract by LC-MS/MS. Oral administration of TF extract for 17 days improved object location memory in 5XFAD mice. Conclusion: These results suggest that TF extract and its active constituents could be an expected therapeutic candidate for Alzheimer’s disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, LC-MS/MS, memory recovery, Trigonella foenum-graecum Seeds, 5XFAD mice

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
4463 'Disability' and Suffering: The Case of Workers Affected by Repetitive Strain Injury/Work Related Musculoskeletal Disorder in a Removal from Work Situation in Santos, São Paulo, Brazil

Authors: Maria Do Carmo Baracho De Alencar, Marciene Campos Fialho, Maria Do Carmo Vitório Ramos

Abstract:

The subjects affected by Repetitive Strain Injury/Work Related Musculoskeletal Disorder (RSI/WRMSD) face an everyday life marked by pain, feelings of worthlessness and incapacity caused by the disease, and aggravated often because of discrimination society. Aim: To investigate the experiences and feelings of workers affected by RSI/WRMSD in removal from work situations and to understand the repercussions on mental health. Methods: Clinical records of workers were consulted, opened from July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015, at the Reference Center for Worker's Health, in Santos city-SP. Selection of workers affected by RSI /WRMSD and who had experienced the removal from work situation due to the disease, and invitation to participate in the study. Semi-structured and individual interviews were carried out based on a pre-elaborated script, and for thematic content analysis. Results: Of a total of 502 medical records, 157 were selected, and of these, 18 workers participated in the interviews, both gender, most of them with low education level, aged between 35 and 56 years, and from different professions. Diseases affected several physical body regions and some workers had more than one body region affected by chronic pain. In the testimonies emerged the psychic suffering by the process of illness at work, fear of dismissal, invisibility of pain, in medical expertise attendance, by the incapacity to perform tasks that were easily achievable, with feelings of uselessness, revolt, and injustice, among others. Conclusion: The workers need to be readapted to new life situations, and the study promotes reflections on the need for more interdisciplinary actions and of the Psychology to the workers affected by RSI/ WRMSD.

Keywords: repetitive strain injury, cumulative trauma disorder, absence from work, mental health, occupational health

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
4462 The Search of New Laws for a Gluten Kingdom

Authors: Mohammed Saleem Tariq

Abstract:

The enthusiasm for gluten avoidance in a growing market is met by improvements in sensitive detection methods for analysing gluten content. Paradoxically, manufacturers employ no such systems in the production process but continue to market their product as gluten free, a significant risk posed to an undetermined coeliac population. The paper resonates with an immunological response that causes gastrointestinal scarring and villous atrophy with the conventional description of personal injury. The current developing regime in the UK however, it is discussed, has avoided creating specific rules to provide an adequate level of protection for this type of vulnerable ‘characteristic’. Due to the struggle involved with identifying an appropriate cause of action, this paper analyses whether a claim brought in misrepresentation, negligence and/or under the Consumer Protect Act 1987 could be sustained. A necessary comparison is then made with the approach adopted by the Americans with Disability Act 1990 which recognises this chronic disease as a disability. The ongoing failure to introduce a level of protection which matches that afforded to those who fall into any one of the ‘protected characteristics’ under the Equality Act 2010, is inconceivable given the outstanding level of legal vulnerability.

Keywords: coeliac, litigation, misrepresentation, negligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
4461 The Impact of City Mobility on Propagation of Infectious Diseases: Mathematical Modelling Approach

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
4460 Analysis of ECGs Survey Data by Applying Clustering Algorithm

Authors: Irum Matloob, Shoab Ahmad Khan, Fahim Arif

Abstract:

As Indo-pak has been the victim of heart diseases since many decades. Many surveys showed that percentage of cardiac patients is increasing in Pakistan day by day, and special attention is needed to pay on this issue. The framework is proposed for performing detailed analysis of ECG survey data which is conducted for measuring the prevalence of heart diseases statistics in Pakistan. The ECG survey data is evaluated or filtered by using automated Minnesota codes and only those ECGs are used for further analysis which is fulfilling the standardized conditions mentioned in the Minnesota codes. Then feature selection is performed by applying proposed algorithm based on discernibility matrix, for selecting relevant features from the database. Clustering is performed for exposing natural clusters from the ECG survey data by applying spectral clustering algorithm using fuzzy c means algorithm. The hidden patterns and interesting relationships which have been exposed after this analysis are useful for further detailed analysis and for many other multiple purposes.

Keywords: arrhythmias, centroids, ECG, clustering, discernibility matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
4459 Parents of Kids with Type 1 Diabetes Sleep with Open Eyes

Authors: Samereh Abdoli, Amit Vora, Anusha Vora

Abstract:

Aim: To qualitatively investigate diabetes burnout in parents of children with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) who shared their experiences through YouTube videos in order to inform future interventions and improve diabetes practice. Methods: A qualitative descriptive approach was used to explore YouTube videos. Of the 568 videos that were identified, only 9 videos met the inclusion criteria of the study. Results: After the videos were transcribed and analyzed using qualitative content analysis, it was revealed that parents shared common concerns and experiences and they translated into three main themes: I do not ever get a break, I am exhausted, I can’t burn out, and I just need a break Conclusion: All in all, the literature revealed that there are negative psychosocial outcomes associated with caring for a child with T1D, but there is a lack of information on diabetes burnout and how parents’ well-being are affected. Reports of self-neglect and sleep deprivation only confirm the need for intervention for parents of children with T1D. The hope with this study is that burnout can be recognized early on and appropriate interventions put in place to help parents cope with the stressors of caring for a child with a chronic disease.

Keywords: Diabetes burnout, type 1 diabetes, qualitative research, parents

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4458 Predicting Factors for Occurrence of Cardiac Arrest in Critical, Emergency and Urgency Patients in an Emergency Department

Authors: Angkrit Phitchayangkoon, Ar-Aishah Dadeh

Abstract:

Background: A key aim of triage is to identify the patients with high risk of cardiac arrest because they require intensive monitoring, resuscitation facilities, and early intervention. We aimed to identify the predicting factors such as initial vital signs, serum pH, serum lactate level, initial capillary blood glucose, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) which affect the occurrence of cardiac arrest in an emergency department (ED). Methods: We conducted a retrospective data review of ED patients in an emergency department (ED) from 1 August 2014 to 31 July 2016. Significant variables in univariate analysis were used to create a multivariate analysis. Differentiation of predicting factors between cardiac arrest patient and non-cardiac arrest patients for occurrence of cardiac arrest in an emergency department (ED) was the primary outcome. Results: The data of 527 non-trauma patients with Emergency Severity Index (ESI) 1-3 were collected. The factors found to have a significant association (P < 0.05) in the non-cardiac arrest group versus the cardiac arrest group at the ED were systolic BP (mean [IQR] 135 [114,158] vs 120 [90,140] mmHg), oxygen saturation (mean [IQR] 97 [89,98] vs 82.5 [78,95]%), GCS (mean [IQR] 15 [15,15] vs 11.5 [8.815]), normal sinus rhythm (mean 59.8 vs 30%), sinus tachycardia (mean 46.7 vs 21.7%), pH (mean [IQR] 7.4 [7.3,7.4] vs 7.2 [7,7.3]), serum lactate (mean [IQR] 2 [1.1,4.2] vs 7 [5,10.8]), and MEWS score (mean [IQR] 3 [2,5] vs 5 [3,6]). A multivariate analysis was then performed. After adjusting for multiple factors, ESI level 2 patients were more likely to have cardiac arrest in the ER compared with ESI 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; P < 0.001). Furthermore, ESI 2 patients were more likely than ESI 1 patients to have cardiovascular disease (OR, 1.89; P = 0.01), heart rate < 55 (OR, 6.83; P = 0.18), SBP < 90 (OR, 3.41; P = 0.006), SpO2 < 94 (OR, 4.76; P = 0.012), sinus tachycardia (OR, 4.32; P = 0.002), lactate > 4 (OR, 10.66; P = < 0.001), and MEWS > 4 (OR, 4.86; P = 0.028). These factors remained predictive of cardiac arrest at the ED. Conclusion: The factors related to cardiac arrest in the ED are ESI 1 patients, ESI 2 patients, patients diagnosed with cardiovascular disease, SpO2 < 94, lactate > 4, and a MEWS > 4. These factors can be used as markers in the event of simultaneous arrival of many patients and can help as a pre-state for patients who have a tendency to develop cardiac arrest. The hemodynamic status and vital signs of these patients should be closely monitored. Early detection of potentially critical conditions to prevent critical medical intervention is mandatory.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, predicting factor, emergency department, emergency patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
4457 Influence of ABCB1 2677G > T Single Nucleotide Polymorphism on Warfarin Maintenance Therapy among Patients with Prosthetic Heart Valve

Authors: M. G. Gopisankar, A. Surendiran, M. Hemachandren

Abstract:

The dose requirement of warfarin to achieve target INR range varies in patients with prosthetic heart valve. This variation in is affected by both genetic and non-genetic factors. Earlier studies have identified role of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genetic polymorphisms on warfarin dose requirement. Warfarin being a substrate for drug transporter, P-glycoprotein coded by ABCB1 gene, may also be influenced by its genetic polymorphisms. This study was aimed to study the effect of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), ABCB1 2677G > T on warfarin maintenance dose requirement in patients with steady-state International Normalized Ratio (INR). The median dose requirement was significantly different between the genotype groups GG vs. GT (35 ± 20; 42.5 ± 18, p < 0.05), GG vs. TT (35 ± 20; 41.25 ± 25, p<0.05). There was no significant difference between GT vs. TT. In conclusion, patients with variant allele require a higher weekly maintenance dose of warfarin compared to patients without variant allele.

Keywords: warfarin pharamcogenetics, pharmacogenomics of warfarin, ABCB1 and warfarin, pglycoprotein and warfarin

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4456 Integration of a Protective Film to Enhance the Longevity and Performance of Miniaturized Ion Sensors

Authors: Antonio Ruiz Gonzalez, Kwang-Leong Choy

Abstract:

The measurement of electrolytes has a high value in the clinical routine. Ions are present in all body fluids with variable concentrations and are involved in multiple pathologies such as heart failures and chronic kidney disease. In the case of dissolved potassium, although a high concentration in the blood (hyperkalemia) is relatively uncommon in the general population, it is one of the most frequent acute electrolyte abnormalities. In recent years, the integration of thin films technologies in this field has allowed the development of highly sensitive biosensors with ultra-low limits of detection for the assessment of metals in liquid samples. However, despite the current efforts in the miniaturization of sensitive devices and their integration into portable systems, only a limited number of successful examples used commercially can be found. This fact can be attributed to a high cost involved in their production and the sustained degradation of the electrodes over time, which causes a signal drift in the measurements. Thus, there is an unmet necessity for the development of low-cost and robust sensors for the real-time monitoring of analyte concentrations in patients to allow the early detection and diagnosis of diseases. This paper reports a thin film ion-selective sensor for the evaluation of potassium ions in aqueous samples. As an alternative for this fabrication method, aerosol assisted chemical vapor deposition (AACVD), was applied due to cost-effectivity and fine control over the film deposition. Such a technique does not require vacuum and is suitable for the coating of large surface areas and structures with complex geometries. This approach allowed the fabrication of highly homogeneous surfaces with well-defined microstructures onto 50 nm thin gold layers. The degradative processes of the ubiquitously employed poly (vinyl chloride) membranes in contact with an electrolyte solution were studied, including the polymer leaching process, mechanical desorption of nanoparticles and chemical degradation over time. Rational design of a protective coating based on an organosilicon material in combination with cellulose to improve the long-term stability of the sensors was then carried out, showing an improvement in the performance after 5 weeks. The antifouling properties of such coating were assessed using a cutting-edge quartz microbalance sensor, allowing the quantification of the adsorbed proteins in the nanogram range. A correlation between the microstructural properties of the films with the surface energy and biomolecules adhesion was then found and used to optimize the protective film.

Keywords: hyperkalemia, drift, AACVD, organosilicon

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4455 A Computer-Aided System for Detection and Classification of Liver Cirrhosis

Authors: Abdel Hadi N. Ebraheim, Eman Azomi, Nefisa A. Fahmy

Abstract:

This paper designs and implements a computer-aided system (CAS) to help detect and diagnose liver cirrhosis in patients with Chronic Hepatitis C. Our system reduces the required features (tests) the patient is asked to do to tests to their minimal best most informative subset of tests, with a diagnostic accuracy above 99%, and hence saving both time and costs. We use the Support Vector Machine (SVM) with cross-validation, a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP), and a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) that employs a base of radial functions for functional approximation, as classifiers. Our system is tested on 199 subjects, of them 99 Chronic Hepatitis C.The subjects were selected from among the outpatient clinic in National Herpetology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute (NHTMRI).

Keywords: liver cirrhosis, artificial neural network, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, classification, accuracy

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4454 Use of External Sensory Stimuli in the Treatment of Parkinson Disease: Literature Review

Authors: Hadi O. Tohme

Abstract:

This study is a review on the effectiveness of new physiotherapy techniques with external sensory stimulus compared to standard physiotherapy in the daily activities of patients with Parkinson's disease. Twenty studies from 1996 to 2015 were analyzed and discussed in this review, using the rehabilitation strategy with external sensory stimulus evaluating walking, freezing episodes, balance, transfers, and daily activities of parkinsonian patients. The study highlights the effectiveness of the variety of rehabilitation with cueing strategy used in the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Based on the literature review completed, there is a need for more specific trials with better treatment strategies to support the most appropriate choice of physiotherapy intervention using external sensory stimulus to the type and frequency of this stimulus. In addition, no trials examined the long-term benefits of the physiotherapy intervention with the external sensory stimulus. In order to determine if, or how long the improvements due to the external sensory stimulus physiotherapy intervention can last, long-term follow-up should be performed.

Keywords: cueing strategy, external sensory stimulus, parkinson disease, rehabilitation for parkinson, sensory attention focused exercises, sensory strategy reeducation

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
4453 Elevated Celiac Antibodies and Abnormal Duodenal Biopsies Associated with IBD Markers: Possible Role of Altered Gut Permeability and Inflammation in Gluten Related Disorders

Authors: Manav Sabharwal, Ruda Rai Md, Candace Parker, James Ridley

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most commonly consumed grains worldwide, which contains gluten. Nowadays, gluten intake is considered to be a trigger for GRDs, including Celiac disease (CD), a common genetic disease affecting 1% of the US population, non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS) and wheat allergy. NCGS is being recognized as an acquired gluten-sensitive enteropathy that is prevalent across age, ethnic and geographic groups. The cause of this entity is not fully understood, and recent studies suggest that it is more common in participants with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), with iron deficiency anemia, symptoms of fatigue, and has considerable overlap in symptoms with IBS and Crohn’s disease. However, these studies were lacking in availability of complete serologies, imaging tests and/or pan-endoscopy. We performed a prospective study of 745 adult patients who presented to an outpatient clinic for evaluation of chronic upper gastro-intestinal symptoms and subsequently underwent an upper endoscopic (EGD) examination as standard of care. Evaluation comprised of comprehensive celiac antibody panel, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) serologic markers, duodenal biopsies and Small Bowel Video Capsule Endoscopy (VCE), when available. At least 6 biopsy specimens were obtained from the duodenum and proximal jejunum during EGD, and CD3+ Intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs) and villous architecture were evaluated by a single experienced pathologist, and VCE was performed by a single experienced gastroenterologist. Of the 745 patients undergoing EGD, 12% (93/745) patients showed elevated CD3+ IELs in the duodenal biopsies. 52% (387/745) completed a comprehensive CD panel and 7.2% (28/387) were positive for at least 1 CD antibody (Tissue transglutaminase (tTG), being the most common antibody in 65% (18/28)). Of these patients, 18% (5/28) showed increased duodenal CD3+ IELs, but 0% showed villous blunting or distortion to meet criteria for CD. Surprisingly, 43% (12/28) were positive for at 1 IBD serology (ASCA, ANCA or expanded IBD panel (LabCorp)). Of these 28 patients, 29% (8/28) underwent a SB VCE, of which 100 % (8/8) showed significant jejuno-ileal mucosal lesions diagnostic for IBD. Findings of abnormal CD antibodies (7.2%, 28/387) and increased CD3+ IELs on duodenal biopsy (12%, 93/745) were observed frequently in patients with UGI symptoms undergoing EGD in an outpatient clinic. None met criteria for CD, and a high proportion (43%, 12/28) showed evidence of overlap with IBD. This suggests a potential causal link of acquired GRDs to underlying inflammation and gut mucosal barrier disruption. Further studies to investigate a role for abnormal antigen presentation of dietary gluten to gut associated lymphoid tissue as a cause are justified. This may explain a high prevalence of GRDs in the population and correlation with IBS, IBD and other gut inflammatory disorders.

Keywords: celiac, gluten sensitive enteropathy, lymphocitic enteritis, IBS, IBD

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
4452 Evaluation of Insulin Sensitizing Effects of Different Fractions from Total Alcoholic Extract of Moringa oleifera Lam. Bark in Dexamethasone-Induced Insulin Resistant Rats

Authors: Hasanpasha N. Sholapur, Basanagouda M.Patil

Abstract:

Alcoholic extract of the bark of Moringa oleifera Lam. (MO), (Moringaceae), has been evaluated experimentally in the past for its insulin sensitizing potentials. In order to explore the possibility of the class of phytochemical(s) responsible for this experimental claim, the alcoholic extract was fractionated into non-polar [petroleum ether (PEF)], moderately non-polar [ethyl acetate (EAF)] and polar [aqueous (AQF)] fractions. All the fractions and pioglitazone (PIO) as standard (10mg/kg were p.o., once daily for 11 d) were investigated for their chronic effect on fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, insulin, oral glucose tolerance and acute effect on oral glucose tolerance in dexamethasone-induced (1 mg/kg s.c., once daily for 11 d) chronic model and acute model (1 mg/kg i.p., for 4 h) respectively for insulin resistance (IR) in rats. Among all the fractions tested, chronic treatment with EAF (140 mg/kg) and PIO (10 mg/kg) prevented dexamethasone-induced IR, indicated by prevention of hypertriglyceridemia, hyperinsulinemia and oral glucose intolerance, whereas treatment with AQF (95 mg/kg) prevented hepatic IR but not peripheral IR. In acute study single dose treatment with EAF (140 mg/kg) and PIO (10 mg/kg) prevented dexamethasone-induced oral glucose intolerance, fraction PEF did not show any effect on these parameters in both the models. The present study indicates that the triterpenoidal and the phenolic class of phytochemicals detected in EAF of alcoholic extract of MO bark may be responsible for the prevention of dexamethasone-induced insulin resistance in rats.

Keywords: Moringa oleifera, insulin resistance, dexamethasone, serum triglyceride, insulin, oral glucose tolerance test

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
4451 Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Based on Blood Biomarkers and Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Man-Yun Liu, Emily Chia-Yu Su

Abstract:

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the public health crisis of the 21st century. AD is a degenerative brain disease and the most common cause of dementia, a costly disease on the healthcare system. Unfortunately, the cause of AD is poorly understood, furthermore; the treatments of AD so far can only alleviate symptoms rather cure or stop the progress of the disease. Currently, there are several ways to diagnose AD; medical imaging can be used to distinguish between AD, other dementias, and early onset AD, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Compared with other diagnostic tools, blood (plasma) test has advantages as an approach to population-based disease screening because it is simpler, less invasive also cost effective. In our study, we used blood biomarkers dataset of The Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) which was funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) to do data analysis and develop a prediction model. We used independent analysis of datasets to identify plasma protein biomarkers predicting early onset AD. Firstly, to compare the basic demographic statistics between the cohorts, we used SAS Enterprise Guide to do data preprocessing and statistical analysis. Secondly, we used logistic regression, neural network, decision tree to validate biomarkers by SAS Enterprise Miner. This study generated data from ADNI, contained 146 blood biomarkers from 566 participants. Participants include cognitive normal (healthy), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and patient suffered Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Participants’ samples were separated into two groups, healthy and MCI, healthy and AD, respectively. We used the two groups to compare important biomarkers of AD and MCI. In preprocessing, we used a t-test to filter 41/47 features between the two groups (healthy and AD, healthy and MCI) before using machine learning algorithms. Then we have built model with 4 machine learning methods, the best AUC of two groups separately are 0.991/0.709. We want to stress the importance that the simple, less invasive, common blood (plasma) test may also early diagnose AD. As our opinion, the result will provide evidence that blood-based biomarkers might be an alternative diagnostics tool before further examination with CSF and medical imaging. A comprehensive study on the differences in blood-based biomarkers between AD patients and healthy subjects is warranted. Early detection of AD progression will allow physicians the opportunity for early intervention and treatment.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, blood-based biomarkers, diagnostics, early detection, machine learning

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4450 A Validated High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-UV Method for Determination of Malondialdehyde-Application to Study in Chronic Ciprofloxacin Treated Rats

Authors: Anil P. Dewani, Ravindra L. Bakal, Anil V. Chandewar

Abstract:

Present work demonstrates the applicability of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection for the determination of malondialdehyde as malondialdehyde-thiobarbituric acid complex (MDA-TBA) in-vivo in rats. The HPLC-UV method for MDA-TBA was achieved by isocratic mode on a reverse-phase C18 column (250mm×4.6mm) at a flow rate of 1.0mLmin−1 followed by UV detection at 278 nm. The chromatographic conditions were optimized by varying the concentration and pH followed by changes in percentage of organic phase optimal mobile phase consisted of mixture of water (0.2% Triethylamine pH adjusted to 2.3 by ortho-phosphoric acid) and acetonitrile in ratio (80:20 % v/v). The retention time of MDA-TBA complex was 3.7 min. The developed method was sensitive as limit of detection and quantification (LOD and LOQ) for MDA-TBA complex were (standard deviation and slope of calibration curve) 110 ng/ml and 363 ng/ml respectively. The method was linear for MDA spiked in plasma and subjected to derivatization at concentrations ranging from 100 to 1000 ng/ml. The precision of developed method measured in terms of relative standard deviations for intra-day and inter-day studies was 1.6–5.0% and 1.9–3.6% respectively. The HPLC method was applied for monitoring MDA levels in rats subjected to chronic treatment of ciprofloxacin (CFL) (5mg/kg/day) for 21 days. Results were compared by findings in control group rats. Mean peak areas of both study groups was subjected for statistical treatment to unpaired student t-test to find p-values. The p value was < 0.001 indicating significant results and suggesting increased MDA levels in rats subjected to chronic treatment of CFL of 21 days.

Keywords: MDA, TBA, ciprofloxacin, HPLC-UV

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4449 The Ratio of Second to Fourth Digit Length Correlates with Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Male College Students Men but Not in Female

Authors: Cheng-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Background: The ratio of the length of the second finger (index finger, 2D) to the fourth finger (ring finger, 4D) (2D:4D) is a putative marker of prenatal hormones. A low 2D:4D ratio is related to high prenatal testosterone (PT) levels. Physiological research has suggested that a low 2D:4D ratio is correlated with high sports ability. Aim: To examine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and 2D:4D. Methods: Assessment of 2D:4D; Images of hands were collected from participants using a computer scanner. Hands were placed lightly on the surface of the plate. Image analysis was performed using Image-Pro Plus 5.0 software. Feature points were marked at the tip of the finger and at the center of the proximal crease on the second and fourth digits. Actual measurement was carried out automatically, 2D:4D was calculated by dividing 2nd by 4th digit length. YMCA 3-min Step Test; The test involves stepping up and down at a rate of 24 steps/min for 3 min; a tape recording of the correct cadence (96 beats/min) is played to assist the participant in keeping the correct pace. Following the step test, the participant immediately sits down and, within 5 s, the tester starts counting the pulse for 1 min. The score for the test, the total 1-min postexercise heart rate, reflects the heart’s ability to recover quickly. Statistical Analysis ; Pearson’s correlation (r) was used for assessing the relationship between age, physical measurements, one-minute heart rate after YMCA 3-minute step test (HR) and 2D:4D. An independent-sample t-test was used for determining possible differences in HR between subjects with low and high values of 2D:4D. All statistical analyses were carried out with SPSS 18 for Window. All P-values were two-tailed at P = 0.05, if not reported otherwise. Results: A median split by 2D:4D was applied, resulting in a high and a low group. One-minute heart rate after YMCA 3-minute step test was significantly difference between groups of male right-hand 2D:4D (p = 0.024). However, no difference in left-hand 2D:4D values between groups in male, and no digit ratio difference between groups in female. Conclusion: The results showed that cardiopulmonary fitness is related to right 2D:4D, only in men. We argue that prenatal testosterone may have an effect on cardiorespiratory fitness in male but not in female.

Keywords: college students, digit ratio, finger, step test, fitness

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4448 Link Between Intensity-trajectories Of Acute Postoperative Pain And Risk Of Chronicization After Breast And Thoracopulmonary Surgery

Authors: Beloulou Mohamed Lamine, Fedili Benamar, Meliani Walid, Chaid Dalila

Abstract:

Introduction: The risk factors for the chronicization of postoperative pain are numerous and often intricately intertwined. Among these, the severity of acute postoperative pain is currently recognized as one of the most determining factors. Mastectomy and thoracotomy are described as among the most painful surgeries and the most likely to lead to chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP). Objective: To examine the aspects of acute postoperative pain potentially involved in the development of chronic pain following breast and thoracic surgery. Patients and Methods: A prospective study involving 164 patients was conducted over a six-month period. Postoperative pain (during mobilization) was assessed using a Visual Analog Scale (VAS) at various time points after surgery: Day 0, 1st, 2nd, 5th days, 1st and 6th months. Moderate to severe pain was defined as a VAS score ≥ 4. A comparative analysis (univariate analysis) of postoperative pain intensities at different evaluation phases was performed on patients with and without CPSP to identify potential associations with the risk of chronicization six months after surgery. Results: At the 6th month post-surgery, the incidence of CPSP was 43.0%. Moderate to severe acute postoperative pain (in the first five days) was observed in 64% of patients. The highest pain scores were reported among thoracic surgery patients. Comparative measures revealed a highly significant association between the presence of moderate to severe acute pain, especially lasting for ≥ 48 hours, and the occurrence of CPSP (p-value <0.0001). Likewise, the persistence of subacute pain (up to 4 to 6 weeks after surgery), especially of moderate to severe intensity, was significantly associated with the risk of chronicization at six months (p-value <0.0001). Conclusion: CPSP after breast and thoracic surgery remains a fairly common morbidity that profoundly affects the quality of life. Severe acute postoperative pain, especially if it is prolonged and/or with a slow decline in intensity, can be an important predictive factor for the risk of chronicization. Therefore, more effective and intensive management of acute postoperative pain, as well as longitudinal monitoring of its trajectory over time, should be an essential component of strategies for preventing chronic pain after surgery.

Keywords: chronic post-surgical pain, acute postoperative pain, breast and thoracic surgery, subacute postoperative pain, pain trajectory, predictive factor

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4447 Rhizosphere Microbiome Involvement in the Natural Suppression of Soybean Cyst Nematode in Disease Suppressive Soil

Authors: M. Imran Hamid, Muzammil Hussain, Yunpeng Wu, Meichun Xiang, Xingzhong Liu

Abstract:

The rhizosphere microbiome elucidate multiple functioning in the soil suppressiveness against plant pathogens. Soybean rhizosphere microbial communities may involve in the natural suppression of soybean cyst nematode (SCN) populations in disease suppressive soils. To explore these ecological mechanisms of microbes, a long term monoculture suppressive soil were taken into account for further investigation to test the disease suppressive ability by using different treatments. The designed treatments are as, i) suppressive soil (S), ii) conducive soil (C), iii) conducive soil mixed with 10% (w/w) suppressive soil (CS), iv) suppressive soil treated at 80°C for 1 hr (S80), and v) suppressive soil treated with formalin (SF). By using an ultra-high-throughput sequencing approach, we identified the key bacterial and fungal taxa involved in SCN suppression. The Phylum-level investigation of bacteria revealed that Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Proteobacteria in the rhizosphere soil of soybean seedlings were more abundant in the suppressive soil than in the conducive soil. The phylum-level analysis of fungi in rhizosphere soil indicated that relative abundance of Ascomycota was higher in suppressive soil than in the conducive soil, where Basidiomycota was more abundant. Transferring suppressive soil to conducive soil increased the population of Ascomycota in the conducive soil by lowering the populations of Basidiomycota. The genera, such as, Pochonia, Purpureocillium, Fusarium, Stachybotrys that have been well documented as bio-control agents of plant nematodes were far more in the disease suppressive soils. Our results suggested that the plants engage a subset of functional microbial groups in the rhizosphere for initial defense upon nematode attack and protect the plant roots later on by nematodes to response for suppression of SCN in disease-suppressive soils.

Keywords: disease suppressive soil, high-throughput sequencing, rhizosphere microbiome, soybean cyst nematode

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4446 Malnutrition of the Cancer Patients under Chemotherapy and Influence of Learned Food Aversions

Authors: Hafsa Chergui

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Malnutrition is a very common problem for hospitalized patients in general but it happens most to those who have a chronic disease such as cancer. Learned food aversions are defined as aversions which form toward foods after their ingestion has been temporally paired with illness (nausea or emesis). Learned food aversion may exert a negative impact on nutritional status and quality of life. The present review evaluates the literature derived both from laboratory animals and humans. Also, a questionnaire has been filled by patients under chemotherapy to assess the level of food aversions. This study evaluated the current research for avoiding the formation of aversions to dietary items in 200 cancer patients treated with chemotherapy. A scapegoat food or beverage can be used just before treatment to reduce the incidence of treatment-related aversions to foods in the individual s usual diet. The goal of this work is to inform the nurses and dieticians because they play a vital role in the daily assessment of the patients' nutritional status. Being aware of all the causes of malnutrition may help to suggest solutions to improve the health condition of the patient and avoid severe malnutrition.

Keywords: chemotherapy, oncology, food aversion, taste aversion

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4445 Combined Use of FMRI and Voxel-Based Morphometry in Assessment of Memory Impairment in Alzheimer's Disease Patients

Authors: A. V. Sokolov, S. V. Vorobyev, A. Yu. Efimtcev, V. Yu. Lobzin, I. A. Lupanov, O. A. Cherdakov, V. A. Fokin

Abstract:

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia. Different brain regions are involved to the pathological process of AD. The purpose of this study was to evaluate brain activation by visual memory task in patients with Alzheimer's disease and determine correlation between memory impairment and atrophy of memory specific brain regions of frontal and medial temporal lobes. To investigate the organization of memory and localize cortical areas activated by visual memory task we used functional magnetic resonance imaging and to evaluate brain atrophy of patients with Alzheimer's disease we used voxel-based morphometry. FMRI was performed on 1.5 T MR-scanner Siemens Magnetom Symphony with BOLD (Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent) technique, based on distinctions of magnetic properties of hemoglobin. For test stimuli we used series of 12 not related images for "Baseline" and 12 images with 6 presented before for "Active". Stimuli were presented 3 times with reduction of repeated images to 4 and 2. Patients with Alzheimer's disease showed less activation in hippocampal formation (HF) region and parahippocampal gyrus then healthy persons of control group (p<0.05). The study also showed reduced activation in posterior cingulate cortex (p<0.001). Voxel-based morphometry showed significant atrophy of grey matter in Alzheimer’s disease patients, especially of both temporal lobes (fusiform and parahippocampal gyri); frontal lobes (posterior cingulate and superior frontal gyri). The study showed correlation between memory impairment and atrophy of memory specific brain regions of frontal and medial temporal lobes. Thus, reduced activation in hippocampal formation and parahippocampal gyri, in posterior cingulate gyrus in patients with Alzheimer's disease correlates to significant atrophy of these regions, detected by voxel-based morphometry, and to deterioration of specific cognitive functions.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, functional MRI, voxel-based morphometry

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4444 Management of Gastrointestinal Metastasis of Invasive Lobular Carcinoma

Authors: Sally Shepherd, Richard De Boer, Craig Murphy

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Background: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) can metastasize to atypical sites within the peritoneal cavity, gastrointestinal, or genitourinary tract. Management varies depending on the symptom presentation, extent of disease burden, particularly if the primary disease is occult, and patient wishes. Case Series: 6 patients presented with general surgical presentations of ILC, including incomplete large bowel obstruction, cholecystitis, persistent lower abdominal pain, and faecal incontinence. 3 were diagnosed with their primary and metastatic disease in the same presentation, whilst 3 patients developed metastasis from 5 to 8 years post primary diagnosis of ILC. Management included resection of the metastasis (laparoscopic cholecystectomy), excision of the primary (mastectomy and axillary clearance), followed by a combination of aromatase inhibitors, biologic therapy, and chemotherapy. Survival post diagnosis of metastasis ranged from 3 weeks to 7 years. Conclusion: Metastatic ILC must be considered with any gastrointestinal or genitourinary symptoms in patients with a current or past history of ILC. Management may not be straightforward to chemotherapy if the acute pathology is resulting in a surgically resectable disease.

Keywords: breast cancer, gastrointestinal metastasis, invasive lobular carcinoma, metastasis

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4443 The Optimization Process of Aortic Heart Valve Stent Geometry

Authors: Arkadiusz Mezyk, Wojciech Klein, Mariusz Pawlak, Jacek Gnilka

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The aortic heart valve stents should fulfill many criterions. These criteria have a strong impact on the geometrical shape of the stent. Usually, the final construction of stent is a result of many year experience and knowledge. Depending on patents claims, different stent shapes are produced by different companies. This causes difficulties for biomechanics engineers narrowing the domain of feasible solutions. The paper present optimization method for stent geometry defining by a specific analytical equation based on various mathematical functions. This formula was implemented as APDL script language in ANSYS finite element environment. For the purpose of simulation tests, a few parameters were separated from developed equation. The application of the genetic algorithms allows finding the best solution due to selected objective function. Obtained solution takes into account parameters such as radial force, compression ratio and coefficient of expansion on the transverse axial.

Keywords: aortic stent, optimization process, geometry, finite element method

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4442 SVM-RBN Model with Attentive Feature Culling Method for Early Detection of Fruit Plant Diseases

Authors: Piyush Sharma, Devi Prasad Sharma, Sulabh Bansal

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Diseases are fairly common in fruits and vegetables because of the changing climatic and environmental circumstances. Crop diseases, which are frequently difficult to control, interfere with the growth and output of the crops. Accurate disease detection and timely disease control measures are required to guarantee high production standards and good quality. In India, apples are a common crop that may be afflicted by a variety of diseases on the fruit, stem, and leaves. It is fungi, bacteria, and viruses that trigger the early symptoms of leaf diseases. In order to assist farmers and take the appropriate action, it is important to develop an automated system that can be used to detect the type of illnesses. Machine learning-based image processing can be used to: this research suggested a system that can automatically identify diseases in apple fruit and apple plants. Hence, this research utilizes the hybrid SVM-RBN model. As a consequence, the model may produce results that are more effective in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 Score, with respective values of 96%, 99%, 94%, and 93%.

Keywords: fruit plant disease, crop disease, machine learning, image processing, SVM-RBN

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4441 The Cost of Non-Communicable Diseases in the European Union: A Projection towards the Future

Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

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