Search results for: Alternative Risk Transfer (ART)

Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

Abstract:

Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Yohannes Yirga, Daniel Tesfay

Abstract:

The convective heat and mass transfer in nanofluid flow through a porous media due to a permeable stretching sheet with magnetic field, viscous dissipation, and chemical reaction and Soret effects are numerically investigated. Two types of nanofluids, namely Cu-water and Ag-water were studied. The governing boundary layer equations are formulated and reduced to a set of ordinary differential equations using similarity transformations and then solved numerically using the Keller box method. Numerical results are obtained for the skin friction coefficient, Nusselt number and Sherwood number as well as for the velocity, temperature and concentration profiles for selected values of the governing parameters. Excellent validation of the present numerical results has been achieved with the earlier linearly stretching sheet problems in the literature.

Keywords: heat and mass transfer, magnetohydrodynamics, nanofluid, fluid dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: S. Cheragh Dar, M. Saljooghi, A. Babrgir

Abstract:

In the last couple of decades researchers' attitudes were focused on developing and enhancing heat transfer processes by using new components or cellular solids that divide into stochastic structures and periodic structures. Open-cell metal foams are part of stochastic structures families that they can be considered as an avant-garde technology and they have unique properties, this porous media can have tremendous achievements in thermal processes. This paper argues and surveys postulating possible in industrial thermal issues which include: compact electronic cooling, heat exchanger, aerospace, fines, turbo machinery, automobiles, crygen tanks, biomechanics, high temperature filters and etc. Recently, by surveying exponential rate of publications in thermal open-cell metal foams, all can be demonstrated in a holistic view which can lead researchers to a new level of understanding in different industrial thermal sections.

Keywords: heat transfer, industrial thermal, cellular solids, open cell metal foam

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Ashish James, Anusha James

Abstract:

The impressive predictive performance of deep learning techniques on a wide range of tasks has led to its widespread use. Estimating the confidence of these predictions is paramount for improving the safety and reliability of such systems. However, the uncertainty estimates provided by neural networks (NNs) tend to be overconfident and unreasonable. Ensemble of NNs typically produce good predictions but uncertainty estimates tend to be inconsistent. Inspired by these, this paper presents a framework that can quantitatively estimate the uncertainties by leveraging the advances in transfer learning through slight modification to the existing training pipelines. This promising algorithm is developed with an intention of deployment in real world problems which already boast a good predictive performance by reusing those pretrained models. The idea is to capture the behavior of the trained NNs for the base task by augmenting it with the uncertainty estimates from a supplementary network. A series of experiments with known and unknown distributions show that the proposed approach produces well calibrated uncertainty estimates with high quality predictions.

Keywords: uncertainty estimation, neural networks, transfer learning, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Shima Soleimani, Steven Eckels

Abstract:

One area of special importance for surface-level study of heat exchangers is tubes with internal micro-fins (< 0.5 mm tall). Micro-finned surfaces are a kind of extended solid surface in which energy is exchanged with water that acts as the source or sink of energy. Significant performance gains are possible for either shell, tube, or double pipe heat exchangers if the best surfaces are identified. The parametric studies of micro-finned tubes that have appeared in the literature left some key parameters unexplored. Specifically, they ignored three-dimensional (3D) micro-fin configurations, conduction heat transfer in the fins, and conduction in the solid surface below the micro-fins. Thus, this study aimed at implementing a parametric study of 3D micro-finned tubes that considered micro-fin height and discontinuity features. A 3D conductive and convective heat-transfer simulation through coupled solid and periodic fluid domains is applied in a commercial package, ANSYS Fluent 19.1. The simulation is steady-state with turbulent water flow cooling inner wall of a tube with micro-fins. The simulation utilizes a constant and uniform temperature on the tube outer wall. Performance is mapped for 18 different simulation cases, including a smooth tube using a realizable k-ε turbulence model at a Reynolds number of 48,928. Results compared the performance of 3D tubes with results for the similar two-dimensional (2D) one. Results showed that the micro-fin height has greater impact on performance factor than discontinuity features in 3D micro-fin tubes. A transformed 3D micro-fin tube can enhance heat transfer and pressure drop up to 21% and 56% compared to a 2D one, respectfully.

Keywords: three-dimensional micro-finned tube, heat transfer, friction factor, heat exchanger

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

Abstract:

In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: P. Ninduangdee, V. I. Kuprianov

Abstract:

Palm kernel shell is an important bioenergy resource in Thailand. However, due to elevated alkali content in biomass ash, this oil palm residue shows high tendency to bed agglomeration in a fluidized-bed combustion system using conventional bed material (silica sand). In this study, palm kernel shell was burned in the conical fluidized-bed combustor (FBC) using alumina and dolomite as alternative bed materials to prevent bed agglomeration. For each bed material, the combustion tests were performed at 45kg/h fuel feed rate with excess air within 20–80%. Experimental results revealed rather weak effects of the bed material type but substantial influence of excess air on the behaviour of temperature, O2, CO, CxHy, and NO inside the reactor, as well as on the combustion efficiency and major gaseous emissions of the conical FBC. The optimal level of excess air ensuring high combustion efficiency (about 98.5%) and acceptable level of the emissions was found to be about 40% when using alumina and 60% with dolomite. By using these alternative bed materials, bed agglomeration can be prevented when burning the shell in the proposed conical FBC. However, both bed materials exhibited significant changes in their morphological, physical and chemical properties in the course of the time.

Keywords: palm kernel shell, fluidized-bed combustion, alternative bed materials, combustion and emission performance, bed agglomeration prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

Abstract:

Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

Abstract:

The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

Abstract:

It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Erdem Meriç

Abstract:

Measuring total temperature of air flow accurately is a very important requirement in the development phases of many industrial products, including gas turbines and rockets. Thermocouples are very practical devices to measure temperature in such cases, but in high speed and high temperature flows, the temperature of thermocouple junction may deviate considerably from real flow total temperature due to the effects of heat transfer mechanisms of convection, conduction, and radiation. To avoid errors in total temperature measurement, special probe designs which are experimentally characterized are used. In this study, a validation case which is an experimental characterization of a specific class of total temperature probes is selected from the literature to develop a numerical conjugate heat transfer analysis methodology to study the total temperature probe flow field and solid temperature distribution. Validated conjugate heat transfer methodology is used to investigate flow structures inside and around the probe and effects of probe design parameters like the ratio between inlet and outlet hole areas and prob tip geometry on measurement accuracy. Lastly, a thermal model is constructed to account for errors in total temperature measurement for a specific class of probes in different operating conditions. Outcomes of this work can guide experimentalists to design a very accurate total temperature probe and quantify the possible error for their specific case.

Keywords: conjugate heat transfer, recovery factor, thermocouples, total temperature probes

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

Abstract:

Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

Abstract:

Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Malorzata Kmiotek, Anna Kucaba-Pietal, Robert Smusz

Abstract:

Due to the miniaturisation process, in many technical devices, microchannels are used in cooling systems. Because of the small size of microchannels, the flow inside is laminar, which caused a slow heat exchange. In order to intensify the heat exchange, the flow must be disturbed, for example, by introducing obstacles. We present results on the influence of a thin obstacle, placed on microchannel wall, on the fluid and heat flow in the aspect of their use by constructors of heat exchangers. The obstacle is called 'thin' when its geometrical parameter (o=w/h, w- width, h - height of the obstacle) satisfies inequality: o < 0.5. In this work, we report numerical results on heat and mass transfer in the microchannels of 400 micrometer height (H - height of the microchannel), where thin obstacles are immersed on the walls, to disturb the flow. The Reynolds number of the flow in microchannel varies between 20 and 200 and is typical for the flow in micro heat exchangers. The equations describing the fluid and heat flows in microchannels were solved numerically by using the finite element method with an application of CFD&FSI package of ADINA R&D, Inc. 9.4 solver. In the case of flows in the microchannels with sequences of thin rectangular obstacles placed on the bottom and the top wall of a microchannel, the influence of distances s (s is the distance between two thin obstacles) and heights of obstacles on the fluid and heat transfer was investigated. Thermal and flow conditions of the application area of microchannels in electronic cooling systems, i.e., wall temperature of 60 °C, the fluid temperature of 20°C were used to solve equations. Additionally, the distance s between the thin obstacles in microchannels as a multiple of the amount of the channel height was determined. Results show that placing thin obstacles on microchannel walls increase the length of recirculation zones of the flow and improves the heat transfer.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, heat transfer, mechanical engineering, microchannel

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

Abstract:

Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Tamanna Rimi

Abstract:

A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: M. D. Antoine

Abstract:

Despite the widespread use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for autistic children, little is known about the communication flow between the different parties involved in autism care (e.g., parents/caregivers, conventional providers, alternative practitioners). This study aimed to describe how communication occurs through the first year following an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis to identify challenges and potential barriers to communication within the healthcare system in Ottawa, Canada. From an ecological perspective, we collected qualitative data through 12 semi-structured interviews with six parents/caregivers, three conventional providers (e.g., family doctor, neurodevelopmental pediatrician, psychologist), and three alternative practitioners (e.g., naturopath, occupational therapist, speech and language pathologist) operating in Ottawa. We interpreted the data using thematic analysis. Findings revealed communication challenges between the parents/caregivers and conventional providers while they experience better communication flow with fewer challenges in alternative care settings. However, parents/caregivers are the only links between the health professionals of both streams. From the five contexts examined: organizational, interpersonal, media, cultural, and political-legal, we found four themes (provider knowledge, care integration, flexible care, and time constraints) underlining specific barriers to communication flow between the parties involved in the care of autistic children. The increasing interest in alternative medicine is forcing changes in the healthcare system. Communications occur outside the norms making openings for better communication and information-sharing increasingly essential. Within the identified themes in the current study, the necessity for better communication between all parties involved in the care of autistic children is evident. More ASD and CAM-related training for providers would support effective parent/caregiver-provider communication. The findings of the current study contribute to a better understanding of the role of communication in the care management of autism, which has implications for effective autism care.

Keywords: alternative medicine, autism care management, autism spectrum disorder, conventional medicine, parent-provider communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: J. Stejskal, P. Hajek

Abstract:

The goal of this article is the analysis of knowledge transfer at the regional level of the Czech Republic. We show how goals of enterprises´ innovative activities are related to the rate of cooperation with different actors within regional innovative systems as well as in other world regions. The results show that the most important partners of enterprises are their suppliers and clients in most Czech regions. The cooperation rate of enterprises correlates significantly mainly with enterprises´ efforts to enter new markets and reduce labour costs per unit output. The meaning of this cooperation decreases with the increase of partner’s distance. Regarding the type of a cooperating partner, cooperation within an enterprise had to do with the increase of market share and decrease of labour costs. On the other hand, cooperation with clients had to do with efforts to replace outdated products or processes or enter new markets. We can pay less attention to the cooperation with government authorities and organizations. The reasons for marginalization of this cooperation should be submitted to further detailed investigation.

Keywords: knowledge, transfer, innovative process, Czech republic, region

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Nora Kuiper, Candace Rowell, Hugues Preud'Homme, Basem Shomar

Abstract:

As the global dependence on seawater desalination as a primary drinking water resource increases, a unique class of secondary pollutants is emerging. The presence of bromide salts in seawater may result in increased levels of bromine and brominated byproducts in drinking water. The State of Qatar offers a unique setting to study these pollutants and their impacts on consumers as the country is 100% dependent on seawater desalination to supply municipal tap water and locally produced bottled water. Tap water (n=115) and bottled water (n=62) samples were collected throughout the State of Qatar and analyzed for a suite of inorganic and organic compounds, including 54 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with an emphasis on brominated byproducts. All VOC identification and quantification was completed using a Bruker Scion GCMSMS with static headspace technologies. A risk survey tool was used to collect information regarding local consumption habits, health outcomes and perception of water sources for adults and children. This study is the first of its kind in the country. Dibromomethane, bromoform, and bromobenzene were detected in 61%, 88% and 2%, of the drinking water samples analyzed. The levels of dibromomethane ranged from approximately 100-500 ng/L and the concentrations of bromoform ranged from approximately 5-50 µg/L. Additionally, bromobenzene concentrations were 60 ng/L. The presence of brominated compounds in drinking water is a public health concern specific to populations using seawater as a feed water source and may pose unique risks that have not been previously studied. Risk assessments are ongoing to quantify the risks associated with prolonged consumption of disinfection byproducts; specifically the risks of brominated trihalomethanes as the levels of bromoform found in Qatar’s drinking water reach more than 60% of the US EPA’s Maximum Contaminant Level of all THMs.

Keywords: brominated byproducts, desalination, trihalomethanes, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: D. Nkazi, S. E. Iyuke, J. Mulopo

Abstract:

Increasing global energy demand as well as air quality concerns have in recent years led to the search for alternative clean fuels to replace fossil fuels. One such alternative is the blending of petrol with ethanol, which has numerous advantages such ethanol’s ability to act as oxygenate thus reducing the carbon monoxide emissions from the exhaust of internal combustion engines of vehicles. However, the hygroscopic nature of ethanol is a major concern in obtaining a perfectly homogenized petrol-ethanol fuel. This problem has led to the study of ways of homogenizing the petrol-ethanol mixtures. During the blending process, volumes fraction of ethanol and petrol were studied with respect to the depth within the storage container to confirm homogenization of the blend and time of storage. The results reveal that the density of the mixture was constant. The binodal curve of the ternary diagram shows an increase of homogeneous region, indicating an improved of interaction between water and petrol. The concentration distribution in the reactor showed proof of cavitation formation since in both directions, the variation of concentration with both time and distance was found to be oscillatory. On comparing the profiles in both directions, the concentration gradient, diffusion flux, and energy and diffusion rates were found to be higher in the vertical direction compared to the horizontal direction. It was therefore concluded that ultrasonication creates cavitation in the mixture which enhances mass transfer and mixing of ethanol and petrol. The horizontal direction was found to be the diffusion rate limiting step which proposed that the blender should have a larger height to diameter ratio. It is, however, recommended that further studies be done on the rate-limiting step so as to have actual dimensions of the reactor.

Keywords: ultrasonication, petrol, ethanol, concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: M. V. Bartashevich

Abstract:

The problem of heat transfer at thin laminar liquid film is solved numerically. A thin film of liquid flows down an inclined surface under conditions of variable heat flux on the wall. The use of thin films of liquid allows to create the effective technologies for cooling surfaces. However, it is important to investigate the most suitable cooling regimes from a safety point of view, in order, for example, to avoid overheating caused by the ruptures of the liquid film, and also to study the most effective cooling regimes depending on the character of the distribution of the heat flux on the wall, as well as the character of the blowing of the film surface, i.e., the external shear stress on its surface. In the statement of the problem on the film surface, the heat transfer coefficient between the liquid and gas is set, as well as a variable external shear stress - the intensity of blowing. It is shown that the combination of these factors - the degree of uniformity of the distribution of heat flux on the wall and the intensity of blowing, affects the efficiency of heat transfer. In this case, with an increase in the intensity of blowing, the cooling efficiency increases, reaching a maximum, and then decreases. It is also shown that the more uniform the heating of the wall, the more efficient the heat sink. A separate study was made for the flow regime along the horizontal surface when the liquid film moves solely due to external stress influence. For this mode, the analytical solution is used for the temperature at the entrance region for further numerical calculations downstream. Also the influence of the degree of uniformity of the heat flux distribution on the wall and the intensity of blowing of the film surface on the heat transfer efficiency was also studied. This work was carried out at the Kutateladze Institute of Thermophysics SB RAS (Russia) and supported by FASO Russia.

Keywords: Heat Flux, Heat Transfer Enhancement, External Blowing, Thin Liquid Film

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Anne Mette Nyvad, Ken Ramshøj Christensen

Abstract:

In the syntax literature, it has standardly been assumed that relative clauses and complement wh-clauses are islands for extraction in English, and that constraints on extraction from syntactic islands are universal. However, the Mainland Scandinavian languages has been known to provide counterexamples. Previous research on Danish has shown that neither relative clauses nor embedded questions are strong islands in Danish. Instead, extraction from this type of syntactic environment is degraded due to structural complexity and it interacts with nonstructural factors such as the frequency of occurrence of the matrix verb, the possibility of temporary misanalysis leading to semantic incongruity and exposure over time. We argue that these facts can be accounted for with parametric variation in the availability of CP-recursion, resulting in the patterns observed, as Danish would then “suspend” the ban on movement out of relative clauses and embedded questions. Given that Danish does not seem to adhere to allegedly universal syntactic constraints, such as the Complex NP Constraint and the Wh-Island Constraint, what happens in L2 English? We present results from a study investigating how native Danish speakers judge extractions from island structures in L2 English. Our findings suggest that Danes transfer their native language parameter setting when asked to judge island constructions in English. This is compatible with the Full Transfer Full Access Hypothesis, as the latter predicts that Danish would have difficulties resetting their [+/- CP-recursion] parameter in English because they are not exposed to negative evidence.

Keywords: syntax, islands, second language acquisition, danish

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ahmed Abdulrahman, Jalal Foroozesh

Abstract:

CO₂ based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques have gained massive attention from major oil firms since they resolve the industry's two main concerns of CO₂ contribution to the greenhouse effect and the declined oil production. Carbonated water injection (CWI) is a promising EOR technique that promotes safe and economic CO₂ storage; moreover, it mitigates the pitfalls of CO₂ injection, which include low sweep efficiency, early CO₂ breakthrough, and the risk of CO₂ leakage in fractured formations. One of the main challenges that hinder the wide adoption of this EOR technique is the complexity of accurate modeling of the kinetics of CO₂ mass transfer. The mechanisms of CO₂ mass transfer during CWI include the slow and gradual cross-phase CO₂ diffusion from carbonated water (CW) to the oil phase and the CO₂ dispersion (within phase diffusion and mechanical mixing), which affects the oil physical properties and the spatial spreading of CO₂ inside the reservoir. A 2D non-equilibrium compositional simulator has been developed using a fully implicit finite difference approximation. The material balance term (k) was added to the governing equation to account for the slow cross-phase diffusion of CO₂ from CW to the oil within the gird cell. Also, longitudinal and transverse dispersion coefficients have been added to account for CO₂ spatial distribution inside the oil phase. The CO₂-oil diffusion coefficient was calculated using the Sigmund correlation, while a scale-dependent dispersivity was used to calculate CO₂ mechanical mixing. It was found that the CO₂-oil diffusion mechanism has a minor impact on oil recovery, but it tends to increase the amount of CO₂ stored inside the formation and slightly alters the residual oil properties. On the other hand, the mechanical mixing mechanism has a huge impact on CO₂ spatial spreading (accurate prediction of CO₂ production) and the noticeable change in oil physical properties tends to increase the recovery factor. A sensitivity analysis has been done to investigate the effect of formation heterogeneity (porosity, permeability) and injection rate, it was found that the formation heterogeneity tends to increase CO₂ dispersion coefficients, and a low injection rate should be implemented during CWI.

Keywords: CO₂ mass transfer, carbonated water injection, CO₂ dispersion, CO₂ diffusion, cross phase CO₂ diffusion, within phase CO2 diffusion, CO₂ mechanical mixing, non-equilibrium simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Zhao Bo

Abstract:

The TiO2-Na2SO3 and SiO2-Na2SO3 nano-fluids were prepared using ultrasonic dispertion method without any surfactant addition to study the influence of nano-fluids on the mass transfer during forced sulfite oxidation in a thermostatic stirred tank, and the kinetic viscosity of nano-fluids was measured. The influence of temperature (30 ℃ ~ 50 ℃), solid loading of fine particle (0 Kg/m³~1.0 Kg/m³), stirring speed (50 r/min ~ 400 r/min), and particle size (10 nm~100 nm) on the average oxygen absorption rate were investigated in detail. Both TiO2 nano-particles and SiO2 nano-particles could remarkably improve the gas-liquid mass transfer. Oxygen absorption enhancement factor increases with the increase of solid loading of nano-particles to a critical value and then decreases with further increase of solid loading under 30℃. Oxygen absorption rate together with absorption enhancement factor increases with stirring speed. However, oxygen absorption enhancement factor decreases with the increase of temperature due to aggregation of nano-particles. Further inherent relationship between particle size, loading, surface area, viscosity, stirring speed, temperature, adsorption, desorption, and mass transfer was discussed in depth by analyzing the interaction mechanism.

Keywords: fine particles, nano-fluid, mass transfer enhancement, solid loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: J. R. Lee, E. V. Lau

Abstract:

Ionic wind is developed when high voltage is supplied to an anode and a grounded cathode in a gaseous medium. This paper studies the ionic wind profile with different anode configurations, the relationship between electrode gap against the voltage supplied and finally a comparison of the heat transfer coefficient of ionic wind over a horizontal flat plate against a conventional fan experimentally. It is observed that increase in the distance between electrodes decreases at a rate of 1-e-0.0206x as the voltage supply is increased until a distance of 3.1536cm. It is also observed that the wind speed produced by ionic wind is stronger, 2.7ms-1 at 2W compared to conventional fan, 2.5ms-1 at 2W but the wind produced decays at a fast exponential rate and is more localized as compared to conventional fan wind that decays at a slower exponential rate and is less localized. Next, it is found out that the ionic wind profile is the same regardless of the position of the anode relative to the cathode. Lastly, it is discovered that ionic wind produced a heat transfer coefficient that is almost 1.6 times higher compared to a conventional fan with Nusselt number reaching 164 compared to 102 for conventional fan.

Keywords: conventional fan, heat transfer, ionic wind, wind profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 546

Authors: Michael Zaidman, Naum Simanovsky

Abstract:

The most of brachial birth palsies are transient. Children with incomplete recovery almost always develop an internal rotation and adduction contracture. The muscle imbalance around the shoulder results in glenohumeral joint deformity and functional limitations. Natural history of glenohumeral deformity is it’s progression with worsening of function. Anteversion glenoid osteotomy with latissimus dorsi and teres major tendon transfers could be an alternative procedure of proximal humeral external rotation osteotomy for patients with severe glenohumeral dysplasia secondary to brachial plexus birth palsy. We will discuss pre-operative planning and stepped operative technique of the procedure on clinical example.

Keywords: obstetric brachial plexus palsy, glenoid anteversion osteotomy, tendon transfer, operative technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Nicolas Thiers, Romain Gers, Olivier Skurtys

Abstract:

In this work, we study numerically the effect of a thermal perturbation on the heat transfer in a rectangular differentially heated cavity of aspect ratio 4, filled by air. In order to maintain the center symmetry, the thermal perturbation is imposed by a square wave at both active walls, at the same relative position of the hot or cold boundary layers. The influences of the amplitude and the vertical location of the perturbation are investigated. The air flow is calculated solving the unsteady Boussinesq-Navier-Stokes equations using the PN - PN-2 Spectral Element Method (SEM) programmed in the Nek5000 opencode, at RaH= 9x107, just before the first bifurcation which leads to periodical flow. The results show that the perturbation has a major impact for the highest amplitude, and at about three quarters of the cavity height, upstream, in both hot and cold boundary layers.

Keywords: direct numerical simulation, heat transfer enhancement, localized thermal perturbations, natural convection, rectangular differentially-heated cavity

Procedia PDF Downloads 145