Search results for: weather forecasting

Authors: Santiranjan Shannigrahi, Mohit Sharma, Ivan Tan Chee Kiang, Yong Anna Marie

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Polymer-ceramics composites are gaining importance due to their high specific strength, corrosion resistance, and high mechanical properties, as well as low cost. As a result, polymer composites are suitable for various industrial applications, like automobiles, aerospace, and biomedical areas. The present work comprises the development of polymer-ceramic composite films and is tested for the harsh environment including weatherability and UV barrier property. The polymer composite films are kept in weather chamber for a fixed period of time followed by tested for their physical, mechanical and chemical properties. The composite films are fabricated using compounding followed by hot pressing. UV-visible spectroscopy results reveal that the pure polymer polyethylene (PE) films are transparent in the visible range and do not absorb UV. However, polymer ceramic composite films start absorbing UV completely even at very low filler loading amount of 5 wt.%. The changes in tensile properties of the various composite films before and after UV illuminations for 40 hrs at 60 degC are analyzed. The tensile strength of neat PE film has been observed 8% reduction, whereas the remarkable increase in tensile strength has been observed (18% improvement for 10 wt. % filled composites films). The UV exposure leads to strengthen the crosslinking among PE polymer chains in the filled composite films, which contributes towards the incremented tensile strength properties.

Keywords: polymer ceramic composite, processing, harsh environment, mechanical properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: S. Farid F. Mojtahedi, Ali Khosravi, Behnaz Naeimian, S. Adel A. Hosseini

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Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the land surface from changes that take place underground. There are different causes of land subsidence; most notably, ground-water overdraft and severe weather conditions. Subsidence of the land surface due to ground water overdraft is caused by an increase in the intergranular pressure in unconsolidated aquifers, which results in a loss of buoyancy of solid particles in the zone dewatered by the falling water table and accordingly compaction of the aquifer. On the other hand, exploitation of underground water may result in significant changes in degree of saturation of soil layers above the water table, increasing the effective stress in these layers, and considerable soil settlements. This study focuses on estimation of soil moisture at surface using different methods. Specifically, different methods for the estimation of moisture content at the soil surface, as an important term to solve Richard’s equation and estimate soil moisture profile are presented, and their results are discussed through comparison with field measurements obtained from Yanco1 station in south-eastern Australia. Surface soil moisture is not easy to measure at the spatial scale of a catchment. Due to the heterogeneity of soil type, land use, and topography, surface soil moisture may change considerably in space and time.

Keywords: artificial neural network, empirical method, remote sensing, surface soil moisture, unsaturated soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Sunghun Jung

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The existing web map service providers contract with the satellite operators to update their maps by paying an astronomical amount of money, but the cost could be minimized by operating a cheap and small UAV. In contrast to the satellites, we only need to replace aged battery packs from time to time for the usage of UAVs. Utilizing both a regular camera and an infrared camera mounted on a small, solar-powered, long-endurance, and hoverable UAV, daytime ground surface photographs, and nighttime infrared photographs will be continuously and repeatedly uploaded to the web map server and overlapped with the existing ground surface photographs in real-time. The real-time web map service using a small, solar-powered, long-endurance, and hoverable UAV can also be applied to the surveillance missions, in particular, to detect border area intruders. The improved real-time image stitching algorithm is developed for the graphic map data overlapping. Also, a small home server will be developed to manage the huge size of incoming map data. The map photographs taken at tens or hundreds of kilometers by a UAV would improve the map graphic resolution compared to the map photographs taken at thousands of kilometers by satellites since the satellite photographs are limited by weather conditions.

Keywords: long-endurance, real-time web map service (RWMS), solar-powered, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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Authors: Anukriti Kumar, Tanmay Singh, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma

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Traffic control has been one of the most common and irritating problems since the time automobiles have hit the roads. Problems like traffic congestion have led to a significant time burden around the world and one significant solution to these problems can be the proper implementation of the Intelligent Transport System (ITS). It involves the integration of various tools like smart sensors, artificial intelligence, position technologies and mobile data services to manage traffic flow, reduce congestion and enhance driver's ability to avoid accidents during adverse weather. Road and traffic signs’ recognition is an emerging field of research in ITS. Classification problem of traffic signs needs to be solved as it is a major step in our journey towards building semi-autonomous/autonomous driving systems. The purpose of this work focuses on implementing an approach to solve the problem of traffic sign classification by developing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier using the GTSRB (German Traffic Sign Recognition Benchmark) dataset. Rather than using hand-crafted features, our model addresses the concern of exploding huge parameters and data method augmentations. Our model achieved an accuracy of around 97.6% which is comparable to various state-of-the-art architectures.

Keywords: multiclass classification, convolution neural network, OpenCV

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Mbambu K. Shaloom, Biba Kalengo, Pierre Echard, Olivier Gilson, Tshiswaka Ngalula, Léonard Kabeya Mukeba Yakasham

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In this 21st century, while design and eco-construction continue to be governed by considerations of functionality, safety, comfort and initial investment cost. Today, the principles of sustainable development lead us to think over longer time frames, to take into account new issues and the operating costs of green energy. DR Congo (sub-Saharan Africa) still suffers from the unusability of certain bio-sourced materials (such as bamboo, branches, etc.) and the lack of energy, i.e. 9% of the population has access to electricity and 21% of access to water. Ecoconstruction involves the energy performance of buildings which carry out a dynamic thermal simulation, which targets the different assumptions and conventional parameters (weather, occupancy, materials, thermal comfort, green energies, etc.). The objective of this article is to remedy the thermal, economic and technical artisanal problems in an aqueous environment in the city of Kinshasa. In order to establish a behavioral model to mitigate environmental impacts on architectural modifications and low-cost eco-construction through the approach of innovation and design thinking.

Keywords: thermal comfort, bio-sourced material, eco-architecture, eco-construction, squatting, design thinking

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Authors: Fei Gao, Xinyang Dong, Yisu Ge, Shufang Lu, Libo Weng

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Vehicle color recognition plays an important role in traffic accident investigation. However, due to the influence of illumination, weather, and noise, vehicle color recognition still faces challenges. In this paper, a vehicle color classification network based on spatial cluster loss and channel attention mechanism (SCNet) is proposed for vehicle color recognition. A channel attention module is applied to extract the features of vehicle color representative regions and reduce the weight of nonrepresentative color regions in the channel. The proposed loss function, called spatial clustering loss (SC-loss), consists of two channel-specific components, such as a concentration component and a diversity component. The concentration component forces all feature channels belonging to the same class to be concentrated through the channel cluster. The diversity components impose additional constraints on the channels through the mean distance coefficient, making them mutually exclusive in spatial dimensions. In the comparison experiments, the proposed method can achieve state-of-the-art performance on the public datasets, VCD, and VeRi, which are 96.1% and 96.2%, respectively. In addition, the ablation experiment further proves that SC-loss can effectively improve the accuracy of vehicle color recognition.

Keywords: feature extraction, convolutional neural networks, intelligent transportation, vehicle color recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Ali Kazemi

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Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

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Authors: Tarek Dandashi

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WSNs may provide a fast and reliable solution for the early detection of environment events like forest fires. This is crucial for alerting and calling for fire brigade intervention. Sensor nodes communicate sensor data to a host station, which enables a global analysis and the generation of a reliable decision on a potential fire and its location. A WSN with TinyOS and nesC for the capturing and transmission of a variety of sensor information with controlled source, data rates, duration, and the records/displaying activity traces is presented. We propose a similarity distance (SD) between the distribution of currently sensed data and that of a reference. At any given time, a fire causes diverging opinions in the reported data, which alters the usual data distribution. Basically, SD consists of a metric on the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). SD is designed to be invariant versus day-to-day changes of temperature, changes due to the surrounding environment, and normal changes in weather, which preserve the data locality. Evaluation shows that SD sensitivity is quadratic versus an increase in sensor node temperature for a group of sensors of different sizes and neighborhood. Simulation of fire spreading when ignition is placed at random locations with some wind speed shows that SD takes a few minutes to reliably detect fires and locate them. We also discuss the case of false negative and false positive and their impact on the decision reliability.

Keywords: forest fire, WSN, wireless sensor network, algortihm

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Zichu Liu, Zhenhua Quan, Xin Liu, Yaohua Zhao

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Enhancing the heat transfer characteristics of the bobsleigh/skeleton ice track and reducing the energy consumption of the bobsleigh/skeleton ice track plays an important role in energy saving of the refrigeration systems. In this study, a track ice-making test rig was constructed to verify the accuracy of the established ice track heat transfer model. The different meteorological conditions on the variations in the heat transfer characteristics of the ice surface, ice temperature, and evaporation temperature with or without Terrain Weather Protection System (TWPS) were investigated, and the influence of the TWPS with and without low emissivity materials on these indexes was also compared. In addition, the influence of different pipe spacing and diameters of refrigeration pipe on the heat transfer resistance of the track is also analyzed. The results showed that compared with the ice track without sunshade facilities, TWPS could reduce the heat transfer between ice surface and air by 17.6% in the transition season, and TWPS with low emissivity material could reduce the heat transfer by 37%. The thermal resistance of the ice track decreased by 8.9×10⁻⁴ m²·°C/W, and the refrigerant evaporation temperature increased by 0.25 °C when the cooling pipes spacing decreased by every 10 mm. The thermal resistance decreased by 1.46×10⁻³ m²·°C/W, and the refrigerant evaporation temperature increased by 0.3 °C when the pipe diameter increased by one nominal diameter.

Keywords: bobsleigh/skeleton ice track, calculation model, heat transfer characteristics, refrigeration

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Authors: Huicong Jia, Donghua Pan

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As a key component of disaster reduction management, disaster emergency relief and reconstruction is an important process. Based on disaster system theory, this study analyzed the Jiangsu tornado from the formation mechanism of disasters, through to the economic losses, loss of life, and social infrastructure losses along the tornado disaster chain. The study then assessed the emergency relief and reconstruction efforts, based on an analytic hierarchy process method. The results were as follows: (1) An unstable weather system was the root cause of the tornado. The potentially hazardous local environment, acting in concert with the terrain and the river network, was able to gather energy from the unstable atmosphere. The wind belt passed through a densely populated district, with vulnerable infrastructure and other hazard-prone elements, which led to an accumulative disaster situation and the triggering of a catastrophe. (2) The tornado was accompanied by a hailstorm, which is an important triggering factor for a tornado catastrophe chain reaction. (3) The evaluation index (EI) of the emergency relief and reconstruction effect for the ‘‘6.23’’ tornado disaster in Yancheng was 91.5. Compared to other relief work in areas affected by disasters of the same magnitude, there was a more successful response than has previously been experienced. The results provide new insights for studies of disaster systems and the recovery measures in response to tornado catastrophe in China.

Keywords: China, disaster system, emergency relief, tornado catastrophe

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Marie Alaghband, Niloofar Yousefi, Ivan Garibay

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Facial expressions are important parts of both gesture and sign language recognition systems. Despite the recent advances in both fields, annotated facial expression datasets in the context of sign language are still scarce resources. In this manuscript, we introduce an annotated sequenced facial expression dataset in the context of sign language, comprising over 3000 facial images extracted from the daily news and weather forecast of the public tv-station PHOENIX. Unlike the majority of currently existing facial expression datasets, FePh provides sequenced semi-blurry facial images with different head poses, orientations, and movements. In addition, in the majority of images, identities are mouthing the words, which makes the data more challenging. To annotate this dataset we consider primary, secondary, and tertiary dyads of seven basic emotions of "sad", "surprise", "fear", "angry", "neutral", "disgust", and "happy". We also considered the "None" class if the image’s facial expression could not be described by any of the aforementioned emotions. Although we provide FePh as a facial expression dataset of signers in sign language, it has a wider application in gesture recognition and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) systems.

Keywords: annotated facial expression dataset, gesture recognition, sequenced facial expression dataset, sign language recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Zama Mahmood

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The increasing demand of food management, monitoring of the crop growth and forecasting its yield well before harvest is very important. These days, yield assessment together with monitoring of crop development and its growth are being identified with the help of satellite and remote sensing images. Studies using remote sensing data along with field survey validation reported high correlation between vegetation indices and yield. With the development of remote sensing technique, the detection of crop and its mechanism using remote sensing data on regional or global scales have become popular topics in remote sensing applications. Punjab, specially the southern Punjab region is extremely favourable for wheat production. But measuring the exact amount of wheat production is a tedious job for the farmers and workers using traditional ground based measurements. However, remote sensing can provide the most real time information. In this study, using the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicator developed from Landsat satellite images, the yield of wheat has been estimated during the season of 2013-2014 for the agricultural area around Bahawalpur. The average yield of the wheat was found 35 kg/acre by analysing field survey data. The field survey data is in fair agreement with the NDVI values extracted from Landsat images. A correlation between wheat production (ton) and number of wheat pixels has also been calculated which is in proportional pattern with each other. Also a strong correlation between the NDVI and wheat area was found (R2=0.71) which represents the effectiveness of the remote sensing tools for crop monitoring and production estimation.

Keywords: landsat, NDVI, remote sensing, satellite images, yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Sahabeh Safarpour, Khiruddin Abdullah, Hwee San Lim, Mohsen Dadras

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Air pollution is a growing problem arising from domestic heating, high density of vehicle traffic, electricity production, and expanding commercial and industrial activities, all increasing in parallel with urban population. Monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters are important due to health impact. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. Seasonal aerosol optical depth (AOD) values at 550 nm derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard NASA’s Terra satellites, for the 10 years period of 2000-2010 were used to test 7 different spatial interpolation methods in the present study. The accuracy of estimations was assessed through visual analysis as well as independent validation based on basic statistics, such as root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient. Based on the RMSE and R values of predictions made using measured values from 2000 to 2010, Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) yielded the best results for spring, summer, and winter and ordinary kriging yielded the best results for fall.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, MODIS, spatial interpolation techniques, Radial Basis Functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: Linet Melisa Daubanes, Nhleko Monique Chiloane

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The shovel-truck system is the most prevalent material handling system used in surface mining operations. Material handling entails the loading and hauling of material from production areas to dumping areas. The material handling process has operational delays that have a negative impact on the productivity of the load and haul fleet. Factors that may contribute to operational delays include shovel-truck mismatch, haul routes, machine breakdowns, extreme weather conditions, etc. The aim of this paper is to investigate factors that contribute to operational delays affecting the productivity of the load and haul fleet at the mine. Productivity is the measure of the effectiveness of producing products from a given quantity of units, the ratio of output to inputs. Productivity can be improved by producing more outputs with the same or fewer units and/or introducing better working methods etc. Several key performance indicators (KPI) for the evaluation of productivity will be discussed in this study. These KPIs include but are not limited to hauling conditions, bucket fill factor, cycle time, and utilization. The research methodology of this study is a combination of on-site time studies and observations. Productivity can be optimized by managing the factors that affect the operational performance of the haulage fleet.

Keywords: cycle time, fleet performance, load and haul, surface mining

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Authors: Hadis Pouyafar, D. Matin Alaghmandan

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Gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells are widely used in applications like spacecraft and satellites because they have a high absorption coefficient and efficiency and can withstand high-energy particles such as electrons and protons. With the energy crisis, there's a growing need for efficiency and cost-effective solar cells. GaAs cells, with their 46% efficiency compared to silicon cells 23% can be utilized in buildings to achieve nearly zero emissions. This way, we can use irradiation and convert more solar energy into electricity. III V semiconductors used in these cells offer performance compared to other technologies available. However, despite these advantages, Si cells dominate the market due to their prices. In our study, we took an approach by using software from the start to gather all information. By doing so, we aimed to design the optimal building that harnesses the full potential of solar energy. Our modeling results reveal a future; for GaAs cells, we utilized the Grasshopper plugin for modeling and optimization purposes. To assess radiation, weather data, solar energy levels and other factors, we relied on the Ladybug and Honeybee plugins. We have shown that silicon solar cells may not always be the choice for meeting electricity demands, particularly when higher power output is required. Therefore, when it comes to power consumption and the available surface area for photovoltaic (PV) installation, it may be necessary to consider efficient solar cell options, like GaAs solar cells. By considering the building requirements and utilizing GaAs technology, we were able to optimize the PV surface area.

Keywords: gallium arsenide (GaAs), optimization, sustainable building, GaAs solar cells

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Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

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In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Tugba Gurler, Irfan Kurtbas

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Roof influences considerably energy demand of buildings. In order to reduce this energy demand, various solutions have been proposed, such as roofs with variable thermal insulation, cool roofs, green roofs, heat exchangers and ventilated roofs, and phase change material (PCM) layered roofs. PCMs suffer from relatively low thermal conductivity despite of their promise of the energy-efficiency initiatives for thermal energy storage (TES). This study not only presents the thermal performance of the concrete roof with PCM layers but also evaluates the products with different design configurations and thicknesses under Central Anatolia Region, Turkey and Nottinghamshire, UK weather conditions. System design limitations and proposed prediction models are discussed in this study. A two-dimensional numerical model has been developed, and governing equations have been solved at each time step. Upper surfaces of the roofs have been modelled with heat flux conditions, while lower surfaces of the roofs with boundary conditions. In addition, suitable roofs have been modeled under symmetry boundary conditions. The results of the designed concrete roofs with PCM layers have been compared with common concrete roofs in Turkey. The UK and the numerical modeling results have been validated with the data given in the literature.

Keywords: phase change material, regional energy demand, roof layers, thermal energy storage

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Authors: Amit Kumar Gupta, Rohit Vashistha, G. P. Ravishankar, Mahesh P. Padwale

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A cold soaked gas turbine engine have known starting problems in high altitude and low temperature conditions. The high altitude results in lower ambient temperature, pressure, and density. Soaking at low temperature leads to higher oil viscosity, increasing the engine starter system torque requirement. Also, low temperature soaks results in a cold compressor rotor and casing. Since the thermal mass of rotor is higher than casing, casing expands faster, thereby, increasing the blade-casing tip clearance. The low pressure flow over the compressor blade coupled with the secondary flow through the compressor tip clearance during start result in stall inception. The present study discusses engine instrumentation required for capturing the stall inception event. The engine fan exit and combustion chamber were instrumented with dynamic pressure probes to capture the pressure characteristic and clamp-on current meter on primary igniter cable to capture ignition event during start cycle. The experiment was carried out at 10500 Ft. pressure altitude and -15°C ambient temperature. The high pressure compressor stall events were recorded during the starts.

Keywords: compressor inlet, dynamic pressure probe, engine start cycle, flight test instrumentation

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Authors: Niklas Panten, Eberhard Abele

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This paper presents a novel approach for real-time and near-optimal control of industrial smart grids by deep reinforcement learning (DRL). To achieve highly energy-efficient factory systems, the energetic linkage of machines, technical building equipment and the building itself is desirable. However, the increased complexity of the interacting sub-systems, multiple time-variant target values and stochastic influences by the production environment, weather and energy markets make it difficult to efficiently control the energy production, storage and consumption in the hybrid industrial smart grids. The studied deep reinforcement learning approach allows to explore the solution space for proper control policies which minimize a cost function. The deep neural network of the DRL agent is based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and convolutional layers. The agent is trained within multiple Modelica-based factory simulation environments by the Advantage Actor Critic algorithm (A2C). The DRL controller is evaluated by means of the simulation and then compared to a conventional, rule-based approach. Finally, the results indicate that the DRL approach is able to improve the control performance and significantly reduce energy respectively operating costs of industrial smart grids.

Keywords: industrial smart grids, energy efficiency, deep reinforcement learning, optimal control

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Bakr Gomaa

Abstract:

Wind driven Cross ventilation is achieved when air moves indoors due to the pressure difference on the building envelope. This is especially important in breezy moderate to humid settings in which fast air flow can promote thermal comfort. Studies have shown that the use of simple building forms or ignoring the urban context when studying natural ventilation can lead to inaccurate results. In this paper, the impact of the urban form of a regular array of buildings is investigated to define the impact of this urban setting on cross ventilation potential. The objective of this paper is to provide the necessary tools to achieve natural ventilation for cooling purposes in an array of building blocks context. The array urban form has been studied before for natural ventilation purposes yet to the best of our knowledge no study has considered the relationship between the urban form and the pressure patterns that develop on the buildings envelope for cross ventilation. For this we use detailed weather data for a case study city of Alexandria (Egypt), as well as a validated CFD simulations to investigate the cross ventilation potential in terms of pressure patterns in waterfront as well as in-city wind flows perpendicular to the buildings array. it was found that for both waterfront and in-city wind speeds the windows needed for cross ventilation in rear raws of the array are significantly larger than those needed for front raw.

Keywords: Alexandria, CFD, cross ventilation, pressure coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

Abstract:

Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: O. R. Obalowu, F. B. Akande, T. P Abegunrin

Abstract:

Maize (Zea may) is mostly grown and consumed by Nigeria farmers using different tillage practices which have a great effect on its growth and yield. In order to maximize output, there is need to recommend a suitable tillage practice for crop production which will increase the growth and yield of maize. This study investigated the effect of tillage practices and planting pattern on the growth and yield of maize. The experiment was arranged in a 4x3x3 Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) layout, with four tillage practices consisting of no-tillage (NT), disc ploughing only (Ponly), disc ploughing followed by harrowing (PH), and disc ploughing, harrowing then ridging (PHR). Three planting patterns which include; 65 x 75, 75 x 75 and 85 x 75 cm spacing within and between the rows respectively, were randomly applied on the plots. All treatments were replicated three times. Data which consist of plant height, stem girth, leaf area and weight of maize per plots were taken and recorded. Data gathered were analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in the Minitab Software Package. The result shows that PHR under the third planting pattern has the highest growth rate (216.50 cm) while NT under the first planting pattern has the lowest mean value of growth rate (115.60 cm). Also, Ponly under the first planting pattern gives a better maize yield (19.45 kg) when compared with other tillage practices while NT under first planting pattern recorded the least yield of maize (9.40 kg). In conclusion, considering soil and weather conditions of the research area, plough only under the first planting pattern (65 x 75 cm) is the best alternative for the production of the Swan maize variety.

Keywords: tillage practice, planting pattern, disc ploughing, harrowing, ridging

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Evangelos Tsakalos, Maria Kazantzaki, Eleni Filippaki, Yannis Bassiakos

Abstract:

The coastal areas of the Mediterranean have been extensively affected by the transgressive event that followed the Last Glacial Maximum, with many studies conducted regarding the stratigraphic configuration of coastal sediments around the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of the Messologi area, western Greece, consists of low relief beaches containing low cliffs and eroded dunes, a fact which, in combination with the rising sea level and tectonic subsidence of the area, has led to substantial coastal. Coastal vulnerability assessment is a useful means of identifying areas of coastline that are vulnerable to impacts of climate change and coastal processes, highlighting potential problem areas. Commonly, coastal vulnerability assessment takes the form of an ‘index’ that quantifies the relative vulnerability along a coastline. Here we make use of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) methodology by Thieler and Hammar-Klose, by considering geological features, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, and mean significant wave height as well as mean tide range to assess the present-day vulnerability of the coastal zone of Messologi area. In light of this, an impact assessment is performed under three different sea level rise scenarios, and adaptation measures to control climate change events are proposed. This study contributes toward coastal zone management practices in low-lying areas that have little data information, assisting decision-makers in adopting best adaptations options to overcome sea level rise impact on vulnerable areas similar to the coastal zone of Messologi.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, coastal erosion, sea level rise, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

Abstract:

The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

Abstract:

How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

Procedia PDF Downloads 365