Search results for: volatility clustering

Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Vladimir A. Basiuk, Laura J. Flores-Sanchez, Victor Meza-Laguna, Jose O. Flores-Flores, Lauro Bucio-Galindo, Elena V. Basiuk

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Noncovalent nanohybrid materials combining carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with phthalocyanines (Pcs) is a subject of increasing research effort, with a particular emphasis on the design of new heterogeneous catalysts, efficient organic photovoltaic cells, lithium batteries, gas sensors, field effect transistors, among other possible applications. The possibility of using unsubstituted Pcs for CNT functionalization is very attractive due to their very moderate cost and easy commercial availability. However, unfortunately, the deposition of unsubstituted Pcs onto nanotube sidewalls through the traditional liquid-phase protocols turns to be very problematic due to extremely poor solubility of Pcs. On the other hand, unsubstituted free-base H₂Pc phthalocyanine ligand, as well as many of its transition metal complexes, exhibit very high thermal stability and considerable volatility under reduced pressure, which opens the possibility for their physical vapor deposition onto solid surfaces, including nanotube sidewalls. In the present work, we show the possibility of simple, fast and efficient noncovalent functionalization of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) with a series of 3d metal(II) phthalocyanines Me(II)Pc, where Me= Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn. The functionalization can be performed in a temperature range of 400-500 °C under moderate vacuum and requires about 2-3 h only. The functionalized materials obtained were characterized by means of Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), Raman, UV-visible and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), scanning and transmission electron microscopy (SEM and TEM, respectively) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). TGA suggested that Me(II)Pc weight content is 30%, 17% and 35% for NiPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively (CoPc exhibited anomalous thermal decomposition behavior). The above values are consistent with those estimated from EDS spectra, namely, of 24-39%, 27-36% and 27-44% for CoPc, CuPc, and ZnPc, respectively. A strong increase in intensity of D band in the Raman spectra of SWNT‒Me(II)Pc hybrids, as compared to that of pristine nanotubes, implies very strong interactions between Pc molecules and SWNT sidewalls. Very high absolute values of binding energies of 32.46-37.12 kcal/mol and the highest occupied and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO and LUMO, respectively) distribution patterns, calculated with density functional theory by using Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof general gradient approximation correlation functional in combination with the Grimme’s empirical dispersion correction (PBE-D) and the double numerical basis set (DNP), also suggested that the interactions between Me(II) phthalocyanines and nanotube sidewalls are very strong. The authors thank the National Autonomous University of Mexico (grant DGAPA-IN200516) and the National Council of Science and Technology of Mexico (CONACYT, grant 250655) for financial support. The authors are also grateful to Dr. Natalia Alzate-Carvajal (CCADET of UNAM), Eréndira Martínez (IF of UNAM) and Iván Puente-Lee (Faculty of Chemistry of UNAM) for technical assistance with FTIR, TGA measurements, and TEM imaging, respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, functionalization, gas-phase, metal(II) phthalocyanines

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Authors: Abigail Bentley, Audrey Prost, Nayreen Daruwalla, Apoorwa Gupta, David Osrin

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BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) can impact a woman’s physical, reproductive and mental health, including common mental disorders such as anxiety and depression. However, people other than an intimate partner may also perpetrate violence against women in the family, particularly in India. This study aims to investigate the relationship between experiences of violence perpetrated by the husband and other members of the wider household and symptoms of common mental disorders in women residing in informal settlement (slum) areas of Mumbai. METHODS: Experiences of violence were assessed through a detailed cross-sectional survey of 598 women, including questions about specific acts of emotional, economic, physical and sexual violence across different time points in the woman’s life and the main perpetrator of each act. Symptoms of common mental disorders were assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). The GHQ-12 scores were divided into four groups and the relationship between experiences of each type of violence in the last 12 months and GHQ-12 score group was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression, adjusted for the woman’s age and clustering. RESULTS: 482 (81%) women consented to interview. On average, they were 28.5 years old, had completed 7 years of education and had been married 9 years. 88% were Muslim and 47% lived in joint and 53% in nuclear families. 44% of women had experienced at least one act of violence in their lifetime (33% emotional, 22% economic, 23% physical, 12% sexual). 7% had a high GHQ-12 score (6 or above). For violence experiences in the last 12 months, the odds of being in the highest GHQ-12 score group versus the lower groups combined were 13.1 for emotional violence, 6.5 for economic, 5.7 for physical and 6.3 for sexual (p<0.001 for all outcomes). DISCUSSION: The high level of violence reported across the lifetime could be due to the detailed assessment of violent acts at multiple time points and the inclusion of perpetrators within the family other than the husband. Each type of violence was associated with greater odds of a higher GHQ-12 score and therefore more symptoms of common mental disorders. Emotional violence was far more strongly associated with symptoms of common mental disorders than physical or sexual violence. However, it is not possible to attribute causal directionality to the association. Further work to investigate the relationship between differing severity of violence experiences and women’s mental health and the components of emotional violence that make it so strongly associated with symptoms of common mental disorders would be beneficial.

Keywords: common mental disorders, family violence, India, informal settlements, mental health, violence against women

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Authors: Mariam Jaber, Abdullah Yahya, Mohammad Alkhedher

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The shift toward sustainable energy solutions increasingly focuses on hydrogen, recognized for its potential as a clean energy carrier. Despite its benefits, hydrogen storage poses significant challenges, primarily due to its low energy density and high volatility. Among the various solutions, pressure vessels designed for hydrogen storage range from Type I to Type V, each tailored for specific needs and benefits. Notably, Type V vessels, with their all-composite, liner-less design, significantly reduce weight and costs while optimizing space and decreasing maintenance demands. This study focuses on optimizing Type V hydrogen storage tanks by examining how different shapes affect performance in drop tests—a crucial aspect of achieving ISO 15869 certification. This certification ensures that if a tank is dropped, it will fail in a controlled manner, ideally by leaking before bursting. While cylindrical vessels are predominant in mobile applications due to their manufacturability and efficient use of space, spherical vessels offer superior stress distribution and require significantly less material thickness for the same pressure tolerance, making them advantageous for high-pressure scenarios. However, spherical tanks are less efficient in terms of packing and more complex to manufacture. Additionally, this study introduces toroidal vessels to assess their performance relative to the more traditional shapes, noting that the toroidal shape offers a more space-efficient option. The research evaluates how different shapes—spherical, cylindrical, and toroidal—affect drop test outcomes when combined with various composite materials and layup configurations. The ultimate goal is to identify optimal vessel geometries that enhance the safety and efficiency of hydrogen storage systems. For our materials, we selected high-performance composites such as Carbon T-700/Epoxy, Kevlar/Epoxy, E-Glass Fiber/Epoxy, and Basalt/Epoxy, configured in various orientations like [0,90]s, [45,-45]s, and [54,-54]. Our tests involved dropping tanks from different angles—horizontal, vertical, and 45 degrees—with an internal pressure of 35 MPa to replicate real-world scenarios as closely as possible. We used finite element analysis and first-order shear deformation theory, conducting tests with the Abaqus Explicit Dynamics software, which is ideal for handling the quick, intense stresses of an impact. The results from these simulations will provide valuable insights into how different designs and materials can enhance the durability and safety of hydrogen storage tanks. Our findings aim to guide future designs, making them more effective at withstanding impacts and safer overall. Ultimately, this research will contribute to the broader field of lightweight composite materials and polymers, advancing more innovative and practical approaches to hydrogen storage. By refining how we design these tanks, we are moving toward more reliable and economically feasible hydrogen storage solutions, further emphasizing hydrogen's role in the landscape of sustainable energy carriers.

Keywords: hydrogen storage, drop test, composite materials, type V tanks, finite element analysis

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Authors: M. Kharrat, G. Moreau, Z. Aboura

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The latest advances in the weaving industry, combined with increasingly sophisticated means of materials processing, have made it possible to produce complex 3D composite structures. Mainly used in aeronautics, composite materials with 3D architecture offer better mechanical properties than 2D reinforced composites. Nevertheless, these materials require a good understanding of their behavior. Because of the complexity of such materials, the damage mechanisms are multiple, and the scenario of their appearance and evolution depends on the nature of the exerted solicitations. The AE technique is a well-established tool for discriminating between the damage mechanisms. Suitable sensors are used during the mechanical test to monitor the structural health of the material. Relevant AE-features are then extracted from the recorded signals, followed by a data analysis using pattern recognition techniques. In order to better understand the damage scenarios of interlock composite materials, a multi-instrumentation was set-up in this work for tracking damage initiation and development, especially in the vicinity of the first significant damage, called macro-damage. The deployed instrumentation includes video-microscopy, Digital Image Correlation, Acoustic Emission (AE) and micro-tomography. In this study, a multi-variable AE data analysis approach was developed for the discrimination between the different signal classes representing the different emission sources during testing. An unsupervised classification technique was adopted to perform AE data clustering without a priori knowledge. The multi-instrumentation and the clustered data served to label the different signal families and to build a learning database. This latter is useful to construct a supervised classifier that can be used for automatic recognition of the AE signals. Several materials with different ingredients were tested under various solicitations in order to feed and enrich the learning database. The methodology presented in this work was useful to refine the damage threshold for the new generation materials. The damage mechanisms around this threshold were highlighted. The obtained signal classes were assigned to the different mechanisms. The isolation of a 'noise' class makes it possible to discriminate between the signals emitted by damages without resorting to spatial filtering or increasing the AE detection threshold. The approach was validated on different material configurations. For the same material and the same type of solicitation, the identified classes are reproducible and little disturbed. The supervised classifier constructed based on the learning database was able to predict the labels of the classified signals.

Keywords: acoustic emission, classifier, damage mechanisms, first damage threshold, interlock composite materials, pattern recognition

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Authors: Satish Kumar, Nisha Goyal

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In the stock market, individual investors exhibit different kinds of behaviour. Traditional finance is built on the notion of 'homo economics', which states that humans always make perfectly rational choices to maximize their wealth and minimize risk. That is, traditional finance has concern for how investors should behave rather than how actual investors are behaving. Behavioural finance provides the explanation for this phenomenon. Although finance has been studied for thousands of years, behavioural finance is an emerging field that combines the behavioural or psychological aspects with conventional economic and financial theories to provide explanations on how emotions and cognitive factors influence investors’ behaviours. These emotions and cognitive factors are known as behavioural biases. Because of these biases, investors make irrational investment decisions. Besides, the emotional and cognitive factors, the social influence of media as well as friends, relatives and colleagues also affect investment decisions. Psychological factors influence individual investors’ investment decision making, but few studies have used qualitative methods to understand these factors. The aim of this study is to explore the behavioural factors or biases that affect individuals’ investment decision making. For the purpose of this exploratory study, an in-depth interview method was used because it provides much more exhaustive information and a relaxed atmosphere in which people feel more comfortable to provide information. Twenty investment advisors having a minimum 5 years’ experience in securities firms were interviewed. In this study, thematic content analysis was used to analyse interview transcripts. Thematic content analysis process involves analysis of transcripts, coding and identification of themes from data. Based on the analysis we categorized the statements of advisors into various themes. Past market returns and volatility; preference for safe returns; tendency to believe they are better than others; tendency to divide their money into different accounts/assets; tendency to hold on to loss-making assets; preference to invest in familiar securities; tendency to believe that past events were predictable; tendency to rely on the reference point; tendency to rely on other sources of information; tendency to have regret for making past decisions; tendency to have more sensitivity towards losses than gains; tendency to rely on own skills; tendency to buy rising stocks with the expectation that this rise will continue etc. are some of the major concerns showed by experts about investors. The findings of the study revealed 13 biases such as overconfidence bias, disposition effect, familiarity bias, framing effect, anchoring bias, availability bias, self-attribution bias, representativeness, mental accounting, hindsight bias, regret aversion, loss aversion and herding bias/media biases present in Indian investors. These biases have a negative connotation because they produce a distortion in the calculation of an outcome. These biases are classified under three categories such as cognitive errors, emotional biases and social interaction. The findings of this study may assist both financial service providers and researchers to understand the various psychological biases of individual investors in investment decision making. Additionally, individual investors will also be aware of the behavioural biases that will aid them to make sensible and efficient investment decisions.

Keywords: financial advisors, individual investors, investment decisions, psychological biases, qualitative thematic content analysis

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Authors: Noureddine Henka, Sami Tazi, Mohamad Assaad

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The electrical grid is a highly intricate system designed to transfer electricity from production areas to consumption areas. The Transmission System Operator (TSO) is responsible for ensuring the efficient distribution of electricity and maintaining the grid's safety and quality. However, due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, there is a growing level of uncertainty, which requires a faster responsive approach. A potential solution involves the use of electrical segmentation, which involves creating coherence zones where electrical disturbances mainly remain within the zone. Indeed, by means of coherent electrical zones, it becomes possible to focus solely on the sub-zone, reducing the range of possibilities and aiding in managing uncertainty. It allows faster execution of operational processes and easier learning for supervised machine learning algorithms. Electrical segmentation can be applied to various applications, such as electrical control, minimizing electrical loss, and ensuring voltage stability. Since the electrical grid can be modeled as a graph, where the vertices represent electrical buses and the edges represent electrical lines, identifying coherent electrical zones can be seen as a clustering task on graphs, generally called community detection. Nevertheless, a critical criterion for the zones is their ability to remain resilient to the electrical evolution of the grid over time. This evolution is due to the constant changes in electricity generation and consumption, which are reflected in graph structure variations as well as line flow changes. One approach to creating a resilient segmentation is to design robust zones under various circumstances. This issue can be represented through a multiplex graph, where each layer represents a specific situation that may arise on the grid. Consequently, resilient segmentation can be achieved by conducting community detection on this multiplex graph. The multiplex graph is composed of multiple graphs, and all the layers share the same set of vertices. Our proposal involves a model that utilizes a unified representation to compute a flattening of all layers. This unified situation can be penalized to obtain (K) connected components representing the robust electrical segmentation clusters. We compare our robust segmentation to the segmentation based on a single reference situation. The robust segmentation proves its relevance by producing clusters with high intra-electrical perturbation and low variance of electrical perturbation. We saw through the experiences when robust electrical segmentation has a benefit and in which context.

Keywords: community detection, electrical segmentation, multiplex graph, power grid

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Authors: Jae-Hyeon Kim, Michael Lee

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Intrinsic and acquired resistance limits the therapeutic benefits of oncogenic BRAF inhibitors in melanoma. MicroRNAs (miRNA) regulate the expression of target mRNAs by repressing their translation. Thus, we investigated miRNA expression patterns in melanoma cell lines to identify candidate biomarkers for acquired resistance to BRAF inhibitor. Here, we used Affymetrix miRNA V3.0 microarray profiling platform to compare miRNA expression levels in three cell lines containing BRAF inhibitor-sensitive A375P BRAF V600E cells, their BRAF inhibitor-resistant counterparts (A375P/Mdr), and SK-MEL-2 BRAF-WT cells with intrinsic resistance to BRAF inhibitor. The miRNAs with at least a two-fold change in expression between BRAF inhibitor-sensitive and –resistant cell lines, were identified as differentially expressed. Averaged intensity measurements identified 138 and 217 miRNAs that were differentially expressed by 2 fold or more between: 1) A375P and A375P/Mdr; 2) A375P and SK-MEL-2, respectively. The hierarchical clustering revealed differences in miRNA expression profiles between BRAF inhibitor-sensitive and –resistant cell lines for miRNAs involved in intrinsic and acquired resistance to BRAF inhibitor. In particular, 43 miRNAs were identified whose expression was consistently altered in two BRAF inhibitor-resistant cell lines, regardless of intrinsic and acquired resistance. Twenty five miRNAs were consistently upregulated and 18 downregulated more than 2-fold. Although some discrepancies were detected when miRNA microarray data were compared with qPCR-measured expression levels, qRT-PCR for five miRNAs (miR-3617, miR-92a1, miR-1246, miR-1936-3p, and miR-17-3p) results showed excellent agreement with microarray experiments. To further investigate cellular functions of miRNAs, we examined effects on cell proliferation. Synthetic oligonucleotide miRNA mimics were transfected into three cell lines, and proliferation was quantified using a colorimetric assay. Of the 5 miRNAs tested, only miR-1246 altered cell proliferation of A375P/Mdr cells. The transfection of miR-1246 mimic strongly conferred PLX-4720 resistance to A375P/Mdr cells, implying that miR-1246 upregulation confers acquired resistance to BRAF inhibition. We also found that PLX-4720 caused much greater G2/M arrest in A375P/Mdr cells transfected with miR-1246mimic than that seen in scrambled RNA-transfected cells. Additionally, miR-1246 mimic partially caused a resistance to autophagy induction by PLX-4720. These results indicate that autophagy does play an essential death-promoting role inPLX-4720-induced cell death. Taken together, these results suggest that miRNA expression profiling in melanoma cells can provide valuable information for a network of BRAF inhibitor resistance-associated miRNAs.

Keywords: microRNA, BRAF inhibitor, drug resistance, autophagy

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Authors: Mwehe Mathenge, Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld, Jacqueline E. W. Broerse

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Smallholder farmers are important drivers of agriculture productivity, food security, and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, they are faced with myriad challenges in their efforts at participating in agribusiness markets. How the geographic explicit factors existing at the local level interact to impede smallholder farmers' decision to participates (or not) in agribusiness markets is not well understood. Deconstructing the spatial complexity of the local environment could provide a deeper insight into how geographically explicit determinants promote or impede resource-poor smallholder farmers from participating in agribusiness. This paper’s objective was to identify, map, and analyze local spatial autocorrelation in factors that impede poor smallholders from participating in agribusiness markets. Data were collected using geocoded researcher-administered survey questionnaires from 392 households in Western Kenya. Three spatial statistics methods in geographic information system (GIS) were used to analyze data -Global Moran’s I, Cluster and Outliers Analysis (Anselin Local Moran’s I), and geographically weighted regression. The results of Global Moran’s I reveal the presence of spatial patterns in the dataset that was not caused by spatial randomness of data. Subsequently, Anselin Local Moran’s I result identified spatially and statistically significant local spatial clustering (hot spots and cold spots) in factors hindering smallholder participation. Finally, the geographically weighted regression results unearthed those specific geographic explicit factors impeding market participation in the study area. The results confirm that geographically explicit factors are indispensable in influencing the smallholder farming decisions, and policymakers should take cognizance of them. Additionally, this research demonstrated how geospatial explicit analysis conducted at the local level, using geographically disaggregated data, could help in identifying households and localities where the most impoverished and resource-poor smallholder households reside. In designing spatially targeted interventions, policymakers could benefit from geospatial analysis methods in understanding complex geographic factors and processes that interact to influence smallholder farmers' decision-making processes and choices.

Keywords: agribusiness markets, GIS, smallholder farmers, spatial statistics, disaggregated spatial data

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Authors: Kumar Divyendra

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Underwater Sensor Networks (UWSNs) have wide applications in areas such as water quality monitoring, marine wildlife management etc. A typical UWSN system consists of a set of sensors deployed randomly underwater which communicate with each other using acoustic links. RF communication doesn't work underwater, and GPS too isn't available underwater. Additionally Automated Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are deployed to collect data from some special nodes called Cluster Heads (CHs). These CHs aggregate data from their neighboring nodes and forward them to the AUVs using optical links when an AUV is in range. This helps reduce the number of hops covered by data packets and helps conserve energy. We consider the three-dimensional model of the UWSN. Nodes are initially deployed randomly underwater. They attach themselves to the surface using a rod and can only move upwards or downwards using a pump and bladder mechanism. We use graph theory concepts to maximize the coverage volume while every node maintaining connectivity with at least one surface node. We treat the surface nodes as landmarks and each node finds out its hop distance from every surface node. We treat these hop-distances as coordinates and use them for AUV navigation. An AUV intending to move closer to a node with given coordinates moves hop by hop through nodes that are closest to it in terms of these coordinates. In absence of GPS, multiple different approaches like Inertial Navigation System (INS), Doppler Velocity Log (DVL), computer vision-based navigation, etc., have been proposed. These systems have their own drawbacks. INS accumulates error with time, vision techniques require prior information about the environment. We propose a method that makes use of the earth's magnetic field values for navigation and combines it with other methods that simultaneously increase the coverage volume under the UWSN. The AUVs are fitted with magnetometers that measure the magnetic intensity (I), horizontal inclination (H), and Declination (D). The International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) is a mathematical model of the earth's magnetic field, which provides the field values for the geographical coordinateson earth. Researchers have developed an inverse deep learning model that takes the magnetic field values and predicts the location coordinates. We make use of this model within our work. We combine this with with the hop-by-hop movement described earlier so that the AUVs move in such a sequence that the deep learning predictor gets trained as quickly and precisely as possible We run simulations in MATLAB to prove the effectiveness of our model with respect to other methods described in the literature.

Keywords: clustering, deep learning, network backbone, parallel computing

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Authors: M. Bagavandas

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Introduction: South Indian stone sculptures are known for their elegance and history. They are available in large numbers in different monuments situated different parts of South India. These art pieces have been studied using iconography details, but this pioneering study introduces a novel method known as iconometry which is a quantitative study that deals with measurements of different parts of icons to find answers for important unanswered questions. The main aim of this paper is to compare iconometric measurements of the sculptures with canonical proportion to determine whether the sculptors of the past had followed any of the canonical proportions prescribed in the ancient text. If not, this study recovers the proportions used for carving sculptures which is not available to us now. Also, it will be interesting to see how these sculptural proportions of different monuments belonging to different dynasties differ from one another in terms these proportions. Methods and Materials: As Indian sculptures are depicted in different postures, one way of making measurements independent of size, is to decode on a suitable measurement and convert the other measurements as proportions with respect to the chosen measurement. Since in all canonical texts of Indian art, all different measurements are given in terms of face length, it is chosen as the required measurement for standardizing the measurements. In order to compare these facial measurements with measurements prescribed in Indian canons of Iconography, the ten facial measurements like face length, morphological face length, nose length, nose-to-chin length, eye length, lip length, face breadth, nose breadth, eye breadth and lip breadth were standardized using the face length and the number of measurements reduced to nine. Each measurement was divided by the corresponding face length and multiplied by twelve and given in angula unit used in the canonical texts. The reason for multiplying by twelve is that the face length is given as twelve angulas in the canonical texts for all figures. Clustering techniques were used to determine whether the sculptors of the past had followed any of the proportions prescribed in the canonical texts of the past to carve sculptures and also to compare the proportions of sculptures of different monuments. About one hundred twenty-seven stone sculptures from four monuments belonging to the Pallava, the Chola, the Pandya and the Vijayanagar dynasties were taken up for this study. These art pieces belong to a period ranging from the eighth to the sixteenth century A.D. and all of them adorning different monuments situated in different parts of Tamil Nadu State, South India. Anthropometric instruments were used for taking measurements and the author himself had measured all the sample pieces of this study. Result: Statistical analysis of sculptures of different centers of art from different dynasties shows a considerable difference in facial proportions and many of these proportions differ widely from the canonical proportions. The retrieved different facial proportions indicate that the definition of beauty has been changing from period to period and region to region.

Keywords: iconometry, proportions, sculptures, statistics

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Authors: Kanogkan Leerojanaprapa

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Textile and garment industry is used to a major exporting industry of Thailand. According to lacking of the nation's price-competitiveness by stopping the EU's GSP (Generalised Scheme of Preferences) and ‘Nationwide Minimum Wage Policy’ that Thailand’s employers must pay all employees at least 300 baht (about $10) a day, the supply chains of the Thai textile and garment industry is affected and need to be reformed. Therefore, either Thai textile or garment industry will be existed or not would be concerned. This is also challenged for the government to decide which industries should be promoted the future industries of Thailand. Recently Thai government launch The Cluster-based Special Economic Development Zones Policy for promoting business cluster (effect on September 16, 2015). They define a cluster as the concentration of interconnected businesses and related institutions that operate within the same geographic areas and textiles and garment is one of target industrial clusters and 9 provinces are targeted (Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Prachinburi, and Sa Kaeo). The cluster zone are defined to link west-east corridor connected to manufacturing source in Cambodia and Mynmar to Bangkok where are promoted to be design, sourcing, and trading hub. The Thai government will provide tax and non-tax incentives for targeted industries within the clusters and expects these businesses are scattered to where they can get the most benefit which will identify future industrial cluster. This research will show the difference between the current cluster and future cluster following the target provinces of the textile and garment. The current cluster is analysed from secondary data. The four characteristics of the numbers of plants in Spinning, weaving and finishing of textiles, Manufacture of made-up textile articles, except apparel, Manufacture of knitted and crocheted fabrics, and Manufacture of other textiles, not elsewhere classified in particular 77 provinces (in total) are clustered by K-means cluster analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. In addition, the cluster can be confirmed and showed which variables contribute the most to defined cluster solution with ANOVA test. The results of analysis can identify 22 provinces (which the textile or garment plants are located) into 3 clusters. Plants in cluster 1 tend to be large numbers of plants which is only Bangkok, Next plants in cluster 2 tend to be moderate numbers of plants which are Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Finally plants in cluster 3 tend to be little numbers of plants which are other 18 provinces. The same methodology can be implemented in other industries for future study.

Keywords: ANOVA, hierarchical cluster analysis, industrial clusters, K -means cluster analysis, textile and garment industry

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Authors: Masilonyane Mokhele

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Across the world, different planning models of the so-called airport-led developments are becoming bandwagons hailed as key to the future of cities. However, in the existing knowledge, there is paucity of empirically informed description and explanation of the economic fundamentals driving the forces of attraction of airports. This void is arguably a result of the absence of an appropriate theoretical framework to guide the analyses. Given this paucity, the aim of the paper is to contribute towards a theoretical framework that could be used to describe and explain forces that drive the location and mix of airport-centric developments. Towards achieving this aim, the objectives of the paper are: one, to establish the type of economic activities that are located on and around O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA), and analyse the reasons for locating there; two, to establish changes that have occurred over time in the form of the airport-centric development of ORTIA; three, to identify the propulsive economic qualities of ORTIA; four, to analyse the spatial, economic and structural linkages within the airport-centric development of ORTIA, between the airport-centric development and the airport, as well as the airport-centric development’s linkages with their metropolitan area and other regional, national and international airport-centric developments and locations. To address the objectives above, the study adopted a case study approach, centred on ORTIA in South Africa: Africa’s busiest airport in terms of passengers and airfreight handled. Using a lens of location theory, a survey was adopted as a main research method, wherein telephonic interviews were conducted with a representative number of firms on and around ORTIA. Other data collection methods encompassed in-depth qualitative interviews (to augment the information obtained through the survey) and analysis of secondary information, particularly as regards establishing changes that have occurred in the form of ORTIA and surrounds. From the empirical findings, ORTIA was discovered to have propulsive economic qualities that act as significant forces of attraction in the clustering of firms. Together with its airport-centric development, ORTIA was discovered to have growth pole properties because of the linkages that occur within the study area, and the linkages that exist between the airport-centric firms and the airport. It was noted that the transport-oriented firms (typified by couriers and freight carriers) act as anchors in some fellow airport-centric firms making use of elements of urbanisation economies, particularly as regards the use of the airport for airfreight services. The empirical findings presented in the paper (in conjunction with results from other airport-centric development case studies) could be used as contribution towards extending theory that describes and explains forces that drive the location and mix of airport-centric developments.

Keywords: airports, airport-centric development, O. R. Tambo international airport, South Africa

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Authors: E. O. Clarke, O. J. Aderinola, O. A. Adeboyejo, M. A. Anetekhai

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Aims: The study is aimed at establishing the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on the abundance, distribution pattern and seasonal variations of the planktonic crustacean populations. Place and Duration of Study: A premier investigation into the dynamics of planktonic crustacean populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out from January 2011 to December 2012. Study Design: The study covered identification, temporal abundance, spatial distribution and diversity of the planktonic crustacea. Methodology: Standard techniques were used to collect samples from eleven stations covering five proximal satellite towns (Idoluwo, Oto, Ibiye, Obele, and Gbanko) bordering the lagoon. Data obtained were statistically analyzed using linear regression and hierarchical clustering. Results:Thirteen (13) planktonic crustacean populations were identified. Total percentage abundance was highest for Bosmina species (20%) and lowest for Polyphemus species (0.8%). The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (“r” values) between total planktonic crustacean population and some physical and chemical parameters showed that positive correlations having low level of significance occurred with salinity (r = 0.042) (sig = 0.184) and with surface water dissolved oxygen (r = 0.299) (sig = 0.155). Linear regression plots indicated that, the total population of planktonic crustacea were mainly influenced and only increased with an increase in value of surface water temperature (Rsq = 0.791) and conductivity (Rsq = 0.589). The total population of planktonic crustacea had a near neutral (zero correlation) with the surface water dissolved oxygen and thus, does not significantly change with the level of the surface water dissolved oxygen. The correlations were positive with NO3-N (midstream) at Ibiye (Rsq =0.022) and (downstream) Gbanko (Rsq =0.013), PO4-P at Ibiye (Rsq =0.258), K at Idoluwo (Rsq =0.295) and SO4-S at Oto (Rsq = 0.094) and Gbanko (Rsq = 0.457). The Berger-Parker Dominance Index (BPDI) showed that the most dominant species was Bosmina species (BPDI = 1.000), followed by Calanus species (BPDI = 1.254). Clusters by squared Euclidan distances using average linkage between groups showed proximities, transcending the borders of genera. Conclusion: The results revealed that planktonic crustacean population in Ologe lagoon undergo seasonal perturbations, were highly influenced by nutrient, metal and organic matter inputs from river Owoh, Agbara industrial estate and surrounding farmlands and were patchy in spatial distribution.

Keywords: diversity, dominance, perturbations, richness, crustacea, lagoon

Procedia PDF Downloads 723

Authors: Felix Schumann, Giorgia Carratta, Tobias Dauth, Liv Jaeckel

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In the last few decades, the rapid growth of the use and disposal of plastic items has led to their overaccumulation in the environment. As a result, plastic pollution has become a subject of global concern. Today plastics are used as raw materials in almost every industry. While the recognition of the ecological, social, and economic impact of plastics in academic research is on the rise, the potential role of the ‘plastic industry’ in dealing with such issues is still largely underestimated. Therefore, the literature on sustainable plastic management is still nascent and fragmented. Working towards sustainability requires a fundamental shift in the way companies employ plastics in their day-to-day business. For that reason, the applicability of the business model concept has recently gained momentum in environmental research. Business model innovation is increasingly recognized as an important driver to re-conceptualize the purpose of the firm and to readily integrate sustainability in their business. It can serve as a starting point to investigate whether and how sustainability can be realized under industry- and firm-specific circumstances. Yet, there is no comprehensive view in the plastic industry on how firms start refining their business models to embed sustainability in their operations. Our study addresses this gap, looking primarily at the industrial sectors responsible for the production of the largest amount of plastic waste today: plastic packaging, consumer goods, construction, textile, and transport. Relying on the archetypes of sustainable business models and applying them to the aforementioned sectors, we try to identify companies’ current strategies to make their business models more sustainable. Based on the thematic clustering, we can develop an integrative framework for the plastic industry. The findings are underpinned and illustrated by a variety of relevant plastic management solutions that the authors have identified through a systematic literature review and analysis of existing, empirically grounded research in this field. Using the archetypes, we can promote options for business model innovations for the most important sectors in which plastics are used. Moreover, by linking the proposed business model archetypes to the plastic industry, our research approach guides firms in exploring sustainable business opportunities. Likewise, researchers and policymakers can utilize our classification to identify best practices. The authors believe that the study advances the current knowledge on sustainable plastic management through its broad empirical industry analyses. Hence, the application of business model archetypes in the plastic industry will be useful for shaping companies’ transformation to create and deliver more sustainability and provides avenues for future research endeavors.

Keywords: business models, environmental economics, plastic management, plastic pollution, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: A. Bentley, A. Prost, N. Daruwalla, D. Osrin

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Background: This study aims to investigate the relationship between experiences of violence against women in the family, and levels of self-esteem in women residing in informal settlement (slum) areas of Mumbai, India. The authors hypothesise that violence against women in Indian households extends beyond that of intimate partner violence (IPV), to include other members of the family and that experiences of violence are associated with lower levels of self-esteem. Methods: Experiences of violence were assessed through a cross-sectional survey of 598 women, including questions about specific acts of emotional, economic, physical and sexual violence across different time points, and the main perpetrator of each. Self-esteem was assessed using the Rosenberg self-esteem questionnaire. A global score for self-esteem was calculated and the relationship between violence in the past year and Rosenberg self-esteem score was assessed using multivariable linear regression models, adjusted for years of education completed, and clustering using robust standard errors. Results: 482 (81%) women consented to interview. On average, they were 28.5 years old, had completed 6 years of education and had been married 9.5 years. 88% were Muslim and 46% lived in joint families. 44% of women had experienced at least one act of violence in their lifetime (33% emotional, 22% economic, 24% physical, 12% sexual). Of the women who experienced violence after marriage, 70% cited a perpetrator other than the husband for at least one of the acts. 5% had low self-esteem (Rosenberg score < 15). For women who experienced emotional violence in the past year, the Rosenberg score was 2.6 points lower (p < 0.001). It was 1.2 points lower (p = 0.03) for women who experienced economic violence. For physical or sexual violence in the past year, no statistically significant relationship with Rosenberg score was seen. However, for a one-unit increase in the number of different acts of each type of violence experienced in the past year, a decrease in Rosenberg score was seen (-0.62 for emotional, -0.76 for economic, -0.53 for physical and -0.47 for sexual; p < 0.05 for all). Discussion: The high prevalence of violence experiences across the lifetime was likely due to the detailed assessment of violence and the inclusion of perpetrators within the family other than the husband. Experiences of emotional or economic violence in the past year were associated with lower Rosenberg scores and therefore lower self-esteem, but no relationship was seen between experiences of physical or sexual violence and Rosenberg score overall. For all types of violence in the past year, a greater number of different acts were associated with a decrease in Rosenberg score. Emotional violence showed the strongest relationship with self-esteem, but for all types of violence the more complex the pattern of perpetration with different methods used, the lower the levels of self-esteem. Due to the cross-sectional nature of the study causal directionality cannot be attributed. Further work to investigate the relationship between severity of violence and self-esteem and whether self-esteem mediates relationships between violence and poorer mental health would be beneficial.

Keywords: family violence, India, informal settlements, Rosenberg self-esteem scale, self-esteem, violence against women

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Shengnan Chen, Shuhua Wang

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Successful production of hydrocarbon from unconventional tight oil reserves has changed the energy landscape in North America. The oil contained within these reservoirs typically will not flow to the wellbore at economic rates without assistance from advanced horizontal well and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. Efficient and economic development of these reserves is a priority of society, government, and industry, especially under the current low oil prices. Meanwhile, society needs technological and process innovations to enhance oil recovery while concurrently reducing environmental impacts. Recently, big data analysis and artificial intelligence become very popular, developing data-driven insights for better designs and decisions in various engineering disciplines. However, the application of data mining in petroleum engineering is still in its infancy. The objective of this research aims to apply intelligent data analysis and data-driven models to exploit unconventional oil reserves both efficiently and economically. More specifically, a comprehensive database including the reservoir geological data, reservoir geophysical data, well completion data and production data for thousands of wells is firstly established to discover the valuable insights and knowledge related to tight oil reserves development. Several data analysis methods are introduced to analysis such a huge dataset. For example, K-means clustering is used to partition all observations into clusters; principle component analysis is applied to emphasize the variation and bring out strong patterns in the dataset, making the big data easy to explore and visualize; exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is used to identify the complex interrelationships between well completion data and well production data. Different data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and machine learning technique are then summarized, and appropriate ones are selected to analyze the database based on the prediction accuracy, model robustness, and reproducibility. Advanced knowledge and patterned are finally recognized and integrated into a modified self-adaptive differential evolution optimization workflow to enhance the oil recovery and maximize the net present value (NPV) of the unconventional oil resources. This research will advance the knowledge in the development of unconventional oil reserves and bridge the gap between the big data and performance optimizations in these formations. The newly developed data-driven optimization workflow is a powerful approach to guide field operation, which leads to better designs, higher oil recovery and economic return of future wells in the unconventional oil reserves.

Keywords: big data, artificial intelligence, enhance oil recovery, unconventional oil reserves

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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To develop a machine learning model to predict diabetes (DM) prevalence in the U.S. population using demographic characteristics, physical indicators, and lifestyle habits, and to analyze how these factors contribute to the likelihood of diabetes. We analyzed data from 23,546 participants aged 20 and older, who were non-pregnant, from the 2009-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The dataset included key demographic (age, sex, ethnicity), physical (BMI, leg length, total cholesterol [TCHOL], fasting plasma glucose), and lifestyle indicators (smoking habits). A weighted sample was used to account for NHANES survey design features such as stratification and clustering. A classification machine learning model was trained to predict diabetes status. The target variable was binary (diabetes or non-diabetes) based on fasting plasma glucose measurements. The following models were evaluated: Logistic Regression (baseline), Random Forest Classifier, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM). Model performance was assessed using accuracy, F1-score, AUC-ROC, and precision-recall metrics. Feature importance was analyzed using SHAP values to interpret the contributions of variables such as age, BMI, ethnicity, and smoking status. The Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model outperformed other classifiers with an AUC-ROC score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis revealed the following key predictors: Age: The most significant predictor, with diabetes prevalence increasing with age, peaking around the 60s for males and 70s for females. BMI: Higher BMI was strongly associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Ethnicity: Black participants had the highest predicted prevalence of diabetes (14.6%), followed by Mexican-Americans (13.5%) and Whites (10.6%). TCHOL: Diabetics had lower total cholesterol levels, particularly among White participants (mean decline of 23.6 mg/dL). Smoking: Smoking showed a slight increase in diabetes risk among Whites (0.2%) but had a limited effect in other ethnic groups. Using machine learning models, we identified key demographic, physical, and lifestyle predictors of diabetes in the U.S. population. The results confirm that diabetes prevalence varies significantly across age, BMI, and ethnic groups, with lifestyle factors such as smoking contributing differently by ethnicity. These findings provide a basis for more targeted public health interventions and resource allocation for diabetes management.

Keywords: diabetes, NHANES, random forest, gradient boosting machine, support vector machine

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Authors: Hongyan Chen, Megan Jobson, Andrew J. Masters, Maria Gonzalez-Miquel, Simon Halstead, Mayri Diaz de Rienzo

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Ionic liquids offer excellent advantages over conventional solvents for industrial extraction of metals from aqueous solutions, where such extraction processes bring opportunities for recovery, reuse, and recycling of valuable resources and more sustainable production pathways. Recent research on the use of ionic liquids for extraction confirms their high selectivity and low volatility, but there is relatively little focus on how their properties can be best exploited in practice. This work addresses gaps in research on process modelling and simulation, to support development, design, and optimisation of these processes, focusing on the separation of the highly similar transition metals, cobalt, and nickel. The study exploits published experimental results, as well as new experimental results, relating to the separation of Co and Ni using trihexyl (tetradecyl) phosphonium chloride. This extraction agent is attractive because it is cheaper, more stable and less toxic than fluorinated hydrophobic ionic liquids. This process modelling work concerns selection and/or development of suitable models for the physical properties, distribution coefficients, for mass transfer phenomena, of the extractor unit and of the multi-stage extraction flowsheet. The distribution coefficient model for cobalt and HCl represents an anion exchange mechanism, supported by the literature and COSMO-RS calculations. Parameters of the distribution coefficient models are estimated by fitting the model to published experimental extraction equilibrium results. The mass transfer model applies Newman’s hard sphere model. Diffusion coefficients in the aqueous phase are obtained from the literature, while diffusion coefficients in the ionic liquid phase are fitted to dynamic experimental results. The mass transfer area is calculated from the surface to mean diameter of liquid droplets of the dispersed phase, estimated from the Weber number inside the extractor. New experiments measure the interfacial tension between the aqueous and ionic phases. The empirical models for predicting the density and viscosity of solutions under different metal loadings are also fitted to new experimental data. The extractor is modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor with mass transfer between the two phases and perfect phase separation of the outlet flows. A multistage separation flowsheet simulation is set up to replicate a published experiment and compare model predictions with the experimental results. This simulation model is implemented in gPROMS software for dynamic process simulation. The results of single stage and multi-stage flowsheet simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the published experimental results. The estimated diffusion coefficient of cobalt in the ionic liquid phase is in reasonable agreement with published data for the diffusion coefficients of various metals in this ionic liquid. A sensitivity study with this simulation model demonstrates the usefulness of the models for process design. The simulation approach has potential to be extended to account for other metals, acids, and solvents for process development, design, and optimisation of extraction processes applying ionic liquids for metals separations, although a lack of experimental data is currently limiting the accuracy of models within the whole framework. Future work will focus on process development more generally and on extractive separation of rare earths using ionic liquids.

Keywords: distribution coefficient, mass transfer, COSMO-RS, flowsheet simulation, phosphonium

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Ruchi B. Semwal, Deepak K. Semwal, Thobile A. N. Nkosi, Alvaro M. Viljoen

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The use of Lawsonia inermis L. (Lythraeae), commonly known as henna, has many medicinal benefits and is used as a remedy for the treatment of diarrhoea, cancer, inflammation, headache, jaundice and skin diseases in folk medicine. Although widely used for hair dyeing and temporary tattooing, henna body art has popularized over the last 15 years and changed from being a traditional bridal and festival adornment to an exotic fashion accessory. The naphthoquinone, lawsone, is one of the main constituents of the plant and responsible for its dyeing property. Henna leaves typically contain 1.8–1.9% lawsone, which is used as a marker compound for the quality control of henna products. Adulteration of henna with various toxic chemicals such as p-phenylenediamine, p-methylaminophenol, p-aminobenzene and p-toluenodiamine to produce a variety of colours, is very common and has resulted in serious health problems, including allergic reactions. This study aims to assess the quality of henna products collected from different parts of the world by determining the lawsone content, as well as the concentrations of any adulterants present. Ultra high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS) was used to determine the lawsone concentrations in 172 henna products. Separation of the chemical constituents was achieved on an Acquity UPLC BEH C18 column using gradient elution (0.1% formic acid and acetonitrile). The results from UPLC-MS revealed that of 172 henna products, 11 contained 1.0-1.8% lawsone, 110 contained 0.1-0.9% lawsone, whereas 51 samples did not contain detectable levels of lawsone. High performance thin layer chromatography was investigated as a cheaper, more rapid technique for the quality control of henna in relation to the lawsone content. The samples were applied using an automatic TLC Sampler 4 (CAMAG) to pre-coated silica plates, which were subsequently developed with acetic acid, acetone and toluene (0.5: 1.0: 8.5 v/v). A Reprostar 3 digital system allowed the images to be captured. The results obtained corresponded to those from UPLC-MS analysis. Vibrational spectroscopy analysis (MIR or NIR) of the powdered henna, followed by chemometric modelling of the data, indicates that this technique shows promise as an alternative quality control method. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to investigate the data by observing clustering and identifying outliers. Partial least squares (PLS) multivariate calibration models were constructed for the quantification of lawsone. In conclusion, only a few of the samples analysed contain lawsone in high concentrations, indicating that they are of poor quality. Currently, the presence of adulterants that may have been added to enhance the dyeing properties of the products, is being investigated.

Keywords: Lawsonia inermis, paraphenylenediamine, temporary tattooing, lawsone

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Elia Favarelli, Enrico Testi, Andrea Giorgetti

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Autonomous structural health monitoring (SHM) of many structures and bridges became a topic of paramount importance for maintenance purposes and safety reasons. This paper proposes a set of machine learning (ML) tools to perform automatic feature selection and detection of anomalies in a bridge from vibrational data and compare different feature extraction schemes to increase the accuracy and reduce the amount of data collected. As a case study, the Z-24 bridge is considered because of the extensive database of accelerometric data in both standard and damaged conditions. The proposed framework starts from the first four fundamental frequencies extracted through operational modal analysis (OMA) and clustering, followed by density-based time-domain filtering (tracking). The fundamental frequencies extracted are then fed to a dimensionality reduction block implemented through two different approaches: feature selection (intelligent multiplexer) that tries to estimate the most reliable frequencies based on the evaluation of some statistical features (i.e., mean value, variance, kurtosis), and feature extraction (auto-associative neural network (ANN)) that combine the fundamental frequencies to extract new damage sensitive features in a low dimensional feature space. Finally, one class classifier (OCC) algorithms perform anomaly detection, trained with standard condition points, and tested with normal and anomaly ones. In particular, a new anomaly detector strategy is proposed, namely one class classifier neural network two (OCCNN2), which exploit the classification capability of standard classifiers in an anomaly detection problem, finding the standard class (the boundary of the features space in normal operating conditions) through a two-step approach: coarse and fine boundary estimation. The coarse estimation uses classics OCC techniques, while the fine estimation is performed through a feedforward neural network (NN) trained that exploits the boundaries estimated in the coarse step. The detection algorithms vare then compared with known methods based on principal component analysis (PCA), kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), and auto-associative neural network (ANN). In many cases, the proposed solution increases the performance with respect to the standard OCC algorithms in terms of F1 score and accuracy. In particular, by evaluating the correct features, the anomaly can be detected with accuracy and an F1 score greater than 96% with the proposed method.

Keywords: anomaly detection, frequencies selection, modal analysis, neural network, sensor network, structural health monitoring, vibration measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Thor Alexis Sazon, Alexander Guzman-Urbina, Yasuhiro Fukushima

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This study outlines the method of how to develop a surrogate life cycle model based on fuzzy logic using three fuzzy inference methods: (1) the conventional Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), (2) the hybrid system of Data Analytics and Fuzzy Inference (DAFIS), which uses data clustering for defining the membership functions, and (3) the Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a combination of fuzzy inference and artificial neural network. These methods were demonstrated with a case study where the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) were estimated using Solar Irradiation, Module Efficiency, and Performance Ratio as inputs. The effects of using different fuzzy inference types, either Sugeno- or Mamdani-type, and of changing the number of input membership functions to the error between the calibration data and the model-generated outputs were also illustrated. The solution spaces of the three methods were consequently examined with a sensitivity analysis. ANFIS exhibited the lowest error while DAFIS gave slightly lower errors compared to FIS. Increasing the number of input membership functions helped with error reduction in some cases but, at times, resulted in the opposite. Sugeno-type models gave errors that are slightly lower than those of the Mamdani-type. While ANFIS is superior in terms of error minimization, it could generate solutions that are questionable, i.e. the negative GWP values of the Solar PV system when the inputs were all at the upper end of their range. This shows that the applicability of the ANFIS models highly depends on the range of cases at which it was calibrated. FIS and DAFIS generated more intuitive trends in the sensitivity runs. DAFIS demonstrated an optimal design point wherein increasing the input values does not improve the GWP and LCOE anymore. In the absence of data that could be used for calibration, conventional FIS presents a knowledge-based model that could be used for prediction. In the PV case study, conventional FIS generated errors that are just slightly higher than those of DAFIS. The inherent complexity of a Life Cycle study often hinders its widespread use in the industry and policy-making sectors. While the methodology does not guarantee a more accurate result compared to those generated by the Life Cycle Methodology, it does provide a relatively simpler way of generating knowledge- and data-based estimates that could be used during the initial design of a system.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic, fuzzy logic, inference system, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Getachew Weldemichael, Sentayehu Alamerew, Leta Tulu, Gezahegn Berecha

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Coffee quality improvement program is becoming the focus of coffee research, as the world coffee consumption pattern shifted to high-quality coffee. However, there is limited information on the genetic variation of C. Arabica for quality improvement in potential specialty coffee growing areas of Ethiopia. Therefore, this experiment was conducted with the objectives of determining the magnitude of variation among 105 coffee accessions collected from east Wollega coffee growing areas and assessing correlations between the different coffee qualities attributes. It was conducted in RCRD with three replications. Data on green bean physical characters (shape and make, bean color and odor) and organoleptic cup quality traits (aromatic intensity, aromatic quality, acidity, astringency, bitterness, body, flavor, and overall standard of the liquor) were recorded. Analysis of variance, clustering, genetic divergence, principal component and correlation analysis was performed using SAS software. The result revealed that there were highly significant differences (P<0.01) among the accessions for all quality attributes except for odor and bitterness. Among the tested accessions, EW104 /09, EW101 /09, EW58/09, EW77/09, EW35/09, EW71/09, EW68/09, EW96 /09, EW83/09 and EW72/09 had the highest total coffee quality values (the sum of bean physical and cup quality attributes). These genotypes could serve as a source of genes for green bean physical characters and cup quality improvement in Arabica coffee. Furthermore, cluster analysis grouped the coffee accessions into five clusters with significant inter-cluster distances implying that there is moderate diversity among the accessions and crossing accessions from these divergent inter-clusters would result in hetrosis and recombinants in segregating generations. The principal component analysis revealed that the first three principal components with eigenvalues greater than unity accounted for 83.1% of the total variability due to the variation of nine quality attributes considered for PC analysis, indicating that all quality attributes equally contribute to a grouping of the accessions in different clusters. Organoleptic cup quality attributes showed positive and significant correlations both at the genotypic and phenotypic levels, demonstrating the possibility of simultaneous improvement of the traits. Path coefficient analysis revealed that acidity, flavor, and body had a high positive direct effect on overall cup quality, implying that these traits can be used as indirect criteria to improve overall coffee quality. Therefore, it was concluded that there is considerable variation among the accessions, which need to be properly conserved for future improvement of the coffee quality. However, the variability observed for quality attributes must be further verified using biochemical and molecular analysis.

Keywords: accessions, Coffea arabica, cluster analysis, correlation, principal component

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

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The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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Authors: Khin Aye Myint, Mohd Rafii Yusop, Mohd Yusoff Abd Samad, Shairul Izan Ramlee, Mohd Din Amiruddin, Zulkifli Yaakub

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The narrow base of genetic is the main obstacle of breeding and genetic improvement in oil palm industry. In order to broaden the genetic bases, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board has been extensively collected wild germplasm from its original area of 11 African countries which are Nigeria, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Cameroon, Zaire, Angola, Madagascar, and Tanzania. The germplasm collections were established and maintained as a field gene bank in Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) Research Station in Kluang, Johor, Malaysia to conserve a wide range of oil palm genetic resources for genetic improvement of Malaysian oil palm industry. Therefore, assessing the performance and genetic diversity of the wild materials is very important for understanding the genetic structure of natural oil palm population and to explore genetic resources. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Cluster analysis are very efficient multivariate tools in the evaluation of genetic variation of germplasm and have been applied in many crops. In this study, eight populations of MPOB-Senegal oil palm germplasm were studied to explore the genetic variation pattern using PCA and cluster analysis. A total of 20 yield and yield component traits were used to analyze PCA and Ward’s clustering using SAS 9.4 version software. The first four principal components which have eigenvalue >1 accounted for 93% of total variation with the value of 44%, 19%, 18% and 12% respectively for each principal component. PC1 showed highest positive correlation with fresh fruit bunch (0.315), bunch number (0.321), oil yield (0.317), kernel yield (0.326), total economic product (0.324), and total oil (0.324) while PC 2 has the largest positive association with oil to wet mesocarp (0.397) and oil to fruit (0.458). The oil palm population were grouped into four distinct clusters based on 20 evaluated traits, this imply that high genetic variation existed in among the germplasm. Cluster 1 contains two populations which are SEN 12 and SEN 10, while cluster 2 has only one population of SEN 3. Cluster 3 consists of three populations which are SEN 4, SEN 6, and SEN 7 while SEN 2 and SEN 5 were grouped in cluster 4. Cluster 4 showed the highest mean value of fresh fruit bunch, bunch number, oil yield, kernel yield, total economic product, and total oil and Cluster 1 was characterized by high oil to wet mesocarp, and oil to fruit. The desired traits that have the largest positive correlation on extracted PCs could be utilized for the improvement of oil palm breeding program. The populations from different clusters with the highest cluster means could be used for hybridization. The information from this study can be utilized for effective conservation and selection of the MPOB-Senegal oil palm germplasm for the future breeding program.

Keywords: cluster analysis, genetic variability, germplasm, oil palm, principal component analysis

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Authors: Luzie Krings

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The electrification of the transport sector is increasingly recognized as a vital strategy for decarbonization. However, integrating electric vehicles (EVs) into the energy grid poses challenges due to decentralized power units and the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology offers a compelling solution by enabling EVs to function as mobile storage units, providing system services, reducing grid congestion, and offering economic incentives. This potential is particularly significant in freight transport, which accounts for 38% of transport-related emissions. The aggregated use of energy storage in this sector can facilitate grid stability and renewable energy integration. Despite this, existing optimization methods for energy markets frequently overlook operational constraints, such as fixed schedules and state-of-charge requirements, while redispatch markets remain underutilized. This study introduces a risk-averse optimization model for marketing EV flexibilities across multiple energy markets in Germany. Using a linear optimization framework, the model incorporates technical, regulatory, and user constraints. EVs are modeled as energy storage units, and the integration of renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, is evaluated. To benchmark performance, unidirectional charging with dynamic tariffs is used as the reference scenario. The research examines four distinct logistics depot fleets, each with varying capacities and schedules, to simulate commercial EV operations. The methodology employs a multi-market optimization model that integrates Day-Ahead, Intraday, and Redispatch energy markets, each with specific trading conditions and temporal offsets. The tool, developed using the Python-based library energy pilot by Fraunhofer IEE, also explores scenarios where proprietary renewable energy sources are incorporated to maximize benefits. By accounting for charging schedules, market requirements, and technical constraints, the study aims to enhance grid stability and improve economic outcomes and integration of renewable energies. The findings highlight the economic, environmental, and grid-related advantages of optimizing EV flexibility. Compared to the reference scenario of unidirectional charging, bidirectional strategies delivered an approximate economic benefit of 20%. Furthermore, the integration of proprietary renewable energy sources increased by 15%, demonstrating the potential for environmental gains. The study revealed that the duration of a single charging cycle has a greater impact on economic benefits than the total daily charging time spread across multiple cycles. This underscores the marketing potential of vehicles with extended idle times rather than frequent charging cycles. In conclusion, optimizing energy trading through flexible EV portfolios and efficient charging infrastructure offers substantial cost savings, particularly by increasing the number of charging stations and extending charging cycle durations. By leveraging multiple marketing options, high investment costs can be offset through enhanced revenues. Further gains could be achieved by simultaneously optimizing all trading options, though this approach introduces risks from price volatility and unreliable redispatch capacities. As electrified trucks are modeled as energy storage units, the study's findings are applicable to other forms of energy storage, offering a scalable and transferable framework for future energy systems.

Keywords: electric vehicles, energy markets, energy storage, energy grid

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Authors: Soowon Park, Min-Ji Kim, Jun-Young Lee

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Motivation: The stigma of mental illness has been studied in many disciplines, including social psychology, counseling psychology, sociology, psychiatry, public health care, and related areas, because individuals labeled as ‘mentally ill’ are often deprived of their rights and their life opportunities. To understand the factors that deepen the stigma of mental illness, it is important to understand the influencing factors of the stigma. Problem statement: Depression is a common disorder in adults, but the incidence of help-seeking is low. Researchers have believed that this poor help-seeking behavior is related to the stigma of mental illness, which results from low mental health literacy. However, it is uncertain that increasing mental health literacy decreases mental health stigmatization. Furthermore, even though decreasing stigmatization is important, the stigma of mental illness is still a stable and long-lasting phenomenon. Thus, factors other than knowledge about mental disorders have the power to maintain the stigma. Investigating the influencing factors that facilitate the stigma of psychiatric disease could help lower the social stigmatization. Approach: Face-to-face interviews were conducted with a multi-clustering sample. A total of 700 Korean participants (38% male), ranging in age from 18 to 78 (M(SD)age= 48.5(15.7)) answered demographical questions, Korean version of Link’s Perceived Devaluation and Discrimination (PDD) scale for the assessment of social stigmatization against depression, and the Korean version of the WHO-Composite International Diagnostic Interview for the assessment of mental disorders. Multiple-regression was conducted to find the predicting factors of social stigmatization against depression. Ages, sex, years of education, income, living location, and experience of mental illness were used as the predictors. Results: Predictors accounted for 14% of the variance in the stigma of depressive disorders (F(6, 693) = 20.27, p < .001). Among those, only age, years of education, and experience of mental illness significantly predicted social stigmatization against depression. The standardized regression coefficient of age had a negative association with stigmatization (β = -.20, p < .001), but years of education (β = .20, p < .001) and experience of mental illness (β = .08, p < .05) positively predicted depression stigmatization. Conclusions: The present study clearly demonstrates the association between personal factors and depressive disorder stigmatization. Younger age, more education, and self-stigma appeared to increase the stigmatization. Young, highly educated, and mentally ill people tend to reject patients with depressive disorder as friends, teachers, or babysitters; they also tend to think that those patients have lower intelligence and abilities. These results suggest the possibility that people from a high social class, or highly educated people, who have the power to make decisions, help maintain the social stigma against mental illness patients. To increase the awareness that people from high social classes have more stigmatization against depressive disorders will help decrease the biased attitudes against mentally ill patients.

Keywords: depressive disorder stigmatization, age, education, self-stigma

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Authors: Afifa Mohammed, Gloria Pignatta, Mattheos Santamouris, Evangelia Topriska

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the global challenges that is exacerbated by the rapid growth of urbanizations. Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon can be considered as an effect of the urbanization and it is responsible together with the Climate change of the overheating of urban cities and downtowns. The purpose of this paper is to quantify and perform analysis of UHI Intensity in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), through checking the relationship between the UHI and different meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, winds speed, winds direction). Climate data were collected from three meteorological stations in Dubai (e.g., Dubai Airport - Station 1, Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3) for a period of five years (e.g., 2014 – 2018) based upon hourly rates, and following clustering technique as one of the methodology tools of measurements. The collected data of each station were divided into six clusters upon the winds directions, either from the seaside or from the desert side, or from the coastal side which is in between both aforementioned winds sources, to investigate the relationship between temperature degrees and winds speed values through UHI measurements for Dubai Airport - Station 1 compared with the same of Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2. In this case, the UHI value is determined by the temperature difference of both stations, where Station 1 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 2 is considered as located in a suburban area. The same UHI calculations has been applied for Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Salem - Station 3 where Station 2 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 3 is considered as located in a suburban area. The performed analysis aims to investigate the relation between the two environmental parameters (e.g., Temperature and Winds Speed) and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity when the wind comes from the seaside, from the desert, and the remaining directions. The analysis shows that the correlation between the temperatures with both UHI intensity (e.g., temperature difference between Dubai Airport - Station 1 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 and between Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 (through station 1 & 2) is strong and has a negative relationship when the wind is coming from the seaside comparing between the two stations 1 and 2, while the relationship is almost zero (no relation) when the wind is coming from the desert side. The relation is independent between the two parameters, e.g., temperature and UHI, on Station 2, during the same procedures, the correlation between the urban heat island UHI phenomenon and wind speed is weak for both stations when wind direction is coming from the seaside comparing the station 1 and 2, while it was found that there’s no relationship between urban heat island phenomenon and wind speed when wind direction is coming from desert side. The conclusion could be summarized saying that the wind coming from the seaside or from the desert side have a different effect on UHI, which is strongly affected by meteorological parameters. The output of this study will enable more determination of UHI phenomenon under desert climate, which will help to inform about the UHI phenomenon and intensity and extract recommendations in two main categories such as planning of new cities and designing of buildings.

Keywords: meteorological data, subtropical desert climate, urban climate, urban heat island (UHI)

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Authors: Luisa Windhagen, Atsumi Hirose, Alex Bottle

Abstract:

Global urbanization has resulted in the expansion of slums, leaving over 10 million Tanzanians in urban poverty and at risk of poor health. Whilst rural residence has historically been associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, recent studies found higher perinatal mortality rates in urban Tanzania. This study aims to understand to what extent slum neighborhoods may account for the spatial disparities seen in Tanzania. We generated a slum indicator based on UN-HABITAT criteria to identify slum clusters within the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics, disaggregated by urban slum, urban non-slum, and rural areas, were produced. Simple and multivariable logistic regression examined the association between cluster residence type and neonatal mortality and stillbirth. For neonatal mortality, we additionally built a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for confounding and clustering. The neonatal mortality ratio was highest in slums (38.3 deaths per 1000 live births); the stillbirth rate was three times higher in slums (32.4 deaths per 1000 births) than in urban non-slums. Neonatal death was more likely to occur in slums than in urban non-slums (aOR=2.15, 95% CI=1.02-4.56) and rural areas (aOR=1.78, 95% CI=1.15-2.77). Odds of stillbirth were over five times higher among rural than urban non-slum residents (aOR=5.25, 95% CI=1.31-20.96). The results suggest that slums contribute to the urban disadvantage in Tanzanian neonatal health. Higher neonatal mortality in slums may be attributable to lack of education, lower socioeconomic status, poor healthcare access, and environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and unsanitary conditions from inadequate housing. However, further research is required to ascertain specific causalities as well as significant associations between residence type and other pregnancy outcomes. The high neonatal mortality, stillbirth, and slum formation rates in Tanzania signify that considerable change is necessary to achieve international goals for health and human settlements. Disparities in access to adequate housing, safe water and sanitation, high standard antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal care, and maternal education need to urgently be addressed. This study highlights the spatial neonatal mortality shift from rural settings to urban informal settlements in Tanzania. Importantly, other low- and middle-income countries experiencing overwhelming urbanization and slum expansion may also be at risk of a reversing trend in residential neonatal health differences.

Keywords: urban health, slum residence, neonatal mortality, stillbirth, global urbanisation

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Authors: Donald Wright

Abstract:

The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

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