Search results for: supply chain risk management

Authors: Carly Madge, Melanie Zurba, Ryan Bullock

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The Boreal Forest has experienced some of the most drastic climate change-induced temperature rises in Canada, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3°C since 1948. One of the main concerns of the province of Saskatchewan, and particularly wildfire managers, is the increased risk of wildfires due to climate change. With these concerns in mind Sakaw Askiy Management Inc., a forestry corporation located in Prince Albert, Saskatchewan with operations in the Boreal Forest biome, is developing wildfire risk reduction strategies that are supported by the shareholders of the corporation as well as the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Forest Management Area (which includes citizens, hunters, trappers, cottage owners, and outfitters). In the past, wildfire management strategies implemented through harvesting have been received with skepticism by some community members of Prince Albert. Engagement of the stakeholders of the Prince Albert Management Area through the development of the wildfire risk reduction strategies aims to reduce this skepticism and rebuild some of the trust that has been lost between industry and community. This research project works with the framework of social learning, which is defined as the learning that occurs when individuals come together to form a group with the purpose of understanding environmental challenges and determining appropriate responses to them. The project evaluates the social learning processes that occur through the development of the risk reduction strategies and how the learning has allowed Sakaw to work towards implementing the strategies into their forest harvesting plans. The incorporation of wildfire risk reduction strategies works to increase the adaptive capacity of Sakaw, which in this case refers to the ability to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, and cope with consequences. Using semi-structured interviews and wildfire workshop meetings shareholders and stakeholders shared their knowledge of wildfire, their main wildfire concerns, and changes they would like to see made in the Prince Albert Forest Management Area. Interviews and topics discussed in the workshops were inductively coded for themes related to learning, adaptive capacity, areas of concern, and preferred methods of wildfire risk reduction strategies. Analysis determined that some of the learning that has occurred has resulted through social interactions and the development of networks oriented towards wildfire and wildfire risk reduction strategies. Participants have learned new knowledge and skills regarding wildfire risk reduction. The formation of wildfire networks increases access to information on wildfire and the social capital (trust and strengthened relations) of wildfire personnel. Both factors can be attributed to increases in adaptive capacity. Interview results were shared with the General Manager of Sakaw, where the areas of concern and preferred strategies of wildfire risk reduction will be considered and accounted for in the implementation of new harvesting plans. This research also augments the growing conceptual and empirical evidence of the important role of learning and networks in regional wildfire risk management efforts.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, community-engagement, social learning, wildfire risk reduction

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Authors: Hiroyuki Aoki

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The physical properties of polymer materials are dependent on the conformation and molecular motion of a polymer chain. Therefore, the structure and dynamic behavior of the single polymer chain have been the most important concerns in the field of polymer physics. However, it has been impossible to directly observe the conformation of the single polymer chain in a bulk medium. In the current work, the novel techniques to study the conformation and dynamics of a single polymer chain are proposed. Since a fluorescence method is extremely sensitive, the fluorescence microscopy enables the direct detection of a single molecule. However, the structure of the polymer chain as large as 100 nm cannot be resolved by conventional fluorescence methods because of the diffraction limit of light. In order to observe the single chains, we developed the labeling method of polymer materials with a photo-switchable dye and the super-resolution microscopy. The real-space conformational analysis of single polymer chains with the spatial resolution of 15-20 nm was achieved. The super-resolution microscopy enables us to obtain the three-dimensional coordinates; therefore, we succeeded the conformational analysis in three dimensions. The direct observation by the nanometric optical microscopy would reveal the detailed information on the molecular processes in the various polymer systems.

Keywords: polymer materials, single molecule, super-resolution techniques, conformation

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Authors: Rachita Lal

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Solar energy is a clean energy source. Because it is readily available in India and has many potential decentralized uses, urban local authorities may use it in various ways to manage the energy needs in the territory under their control. Apart from these and other services for which people pay a substantial number of money, urban local councils play a crucial role in administering essential services like water supply, street lighting, and health care. ULBs may contribute considerably to the transition to solar energy, both for their benefit and simultaneously for several additional direct and indirect advantages at multiple levels. The research primarily focuses on using clean energy management to reduce urban areas' reliance on traditional (electricity) energy. A technique for estimating the rooftop solar power potential using GIS (Geographical Information System) is described. Given that the combustion of fossil fuels produces 75% of India's power, meeting the country's energy needs through renewable energy sources is a step toward sustainable development and combating climate change. The study will further help in categorization, phasing, and understanding the demand and supply and thus calculating the cumulative benefits. The main objectives are to study the consumption of conventional energy in the study area and to identify the potential areas where solar photovoltaic intervention can be installed.

Keywords: solar energy, GIS, clean energy management, sustainable development

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Authors: Edward Nartey

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Although the boundaries of sustainable performance and growth in the field of service supply chains (SCs) have been broadened by scholars in recent years, research on the impact and promises of Industry 4.0 Destructive Technologies (IDTs) on sustainability performance under disruptive events is still scarce. To mitigate disruptions in the SC and improve efficiency by identifying areas for cost savings, organizations have resorted to investments in digitalization, automation, and control mechanisms in recent years. However, little is known about the sustainability implications for IDT adoption and controls in service SCs, especially during disruptive events. To investigate this paradox, survey data were sought from 223 public health managers across Ghana and analyzed via covariance-based structural equations modelling. The results showed that both formal and informal control have a positive and significant relationship with IDT adoption. In addition, formal control has a significant and positive relationship with environmental and economic sustainability but an insignificant relationship with social sustainability. Furthermore, informal control positively impacts economic performance but has an insignificant relationship with social and environmental sustainability. While the findings highlight the prevalence of the IDTs being initiated by Ghanaian public health institutions (PHIs), this study concludes that the installed control systems in these organizations are inadequate for promoting sustainable SC behaviors under destructive events. Thus, in crisis situations, PHIs need to redesign their control systems to facilitate IDT integration towards sustainability issues in SCs.

Keywords: industry 4.0 destructive technologies, formal control, informal control, sustainable supply chain performance, public health organizations

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Jerónimo De Burgos-Jiménez, José F. Bienvenido-Bárcena, José F. Jiménez-Guerrero

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Environmental cost and transport congestion on roads resulting from product distribution in Europe have to lead to the creation of various programs and studies seeking to reduce these negative impacts. In this regard, apart from other institutions, the European Commission (EC) has designed plans in recent years promoting a more sustainable transportation model in an attempt to ultimately shift traffic from the road to the sea by using intermodality to achieve a model rebalancing. This issue proves especially relevant in supply chains from peripheral areas of the continent, where the supply of certain agrifood products is high. In such cases, the most difficult challenge is managing perishable goods. This study focuses on new approaches that strengthen the modal shift, as well as the reduction of externalities. This problem is analyzed by attempting to promote intermodal system (truck and short sea shipping) for transport, taking as point of reference highly perishable products (vegetables) exported from southeast Spain, which is the leading supplier to Europe. Methodologically, this paper seeks to contribute to the literature by proposing a different and complementary approach to establish a comparison between intermodal and the “only road” alternative. For this purpose, the multicriteria decision is utilized in a p-median model (P-M) adapted to the transport of perishables and to a means of shipping selection problem, which must consider different variables: transit cost, including externalities, time, and frequency (including agile response time). This scheme avoids bias in decision-making processes. By observing the results, it can be seen that the influence of the externalities as drivers of the modal shift is reduced when transit time is introduced as a decision variable. These findings confirm that the general strategies, those of the EC, based on environmental benefits lose their capacity for implementation when they are applied to complex circumstances. In general, the different estimations reveal that, in the case of perishables, intermodality would be a secondary and viable option only for very specific destinations (for example, Hamburg and nearby locations, the area of influence of London, Paris, and the Netherlands). Based on this framework, the general outlook on this subject should be modified. Perhaps the government should promote specific business strategies based on new trends in the supply chain, not only on the reduction of externalities, and find new approaches that strengthen the modal shift. A possible option is to redefine ports, conceptualizing them as digitalized redistribution and coordination centers and not only as areas of cargo exchange.

Keywords: environmental externalities, intermodal transport, perishable food, transit time

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Authors: Siti Rahmawati

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Indonesia has had long period of monetary economic crisis and it is followed by an upward trend in the price of fuel oil. This situation impacts all aspects of tuna fishermen community. For instance, the basic needs of fishing communities increase and the lower purchasing power then lead to economic and social instability as well as the health of fishermen household. To understand this AHP method is applied to acknowledge the model of tuna fisheries management priorities and cold chain marketing channel and the utilization levels that impact on human health. The study is designed as a development research with the number of 180 respondents. The data were analyzed by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The development of tuna fishery business can improve productivity of production with economic empowerment activities for coastal communities, improving the competitiveness of products, developing fish processing centers and provide internal capital for the development of optimal fishery business. From economic aspects, fishery business is more attracting because the benefit cost ratio of 2.86. This means that for 10 years, the economic life of this project can work well as B/C> 1 and therefore the rate of investment is economically viable. From the health aspects, tuna can reduce the risk of dying from heart disease by 50%, because tuna contain selenium in the human body. The consumption of 100 g of tuna meet 52.9% of the selenium in the body and activating the antioxidant enzyme glutathione peroxidaxe which can protect the body from free radicals and stimulate various cancers. The results of the analytic hierarchy process that the quality of tuna products is the top priority for export quality as well as quality control in order to compete in the global market. The implementation of the policy can increase the income of fishermen and reduce the poverty of fishermen households and have impact on the human health whose has high risk of disease.

Keywords: management of tuna, social, economic, health

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

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In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: location-routing problem, robust optimization, stochastic programming, variable neighborhood search

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Authors: Maria M. Giannakou, Athanasios K. Ziliaskopoulos

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Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are often routed through populated cities, industrial and environmentally sensitive areas. While the need for these networks is unquestionable, there are serious concerns about the risk these lifeline networks pose to the people, to their habitat and to the critical infrastructures, especially in view of natural disasters such as earthquakes. This work presents an Integrated Pipeline Risk Management methodology (IPRM) for assessing the hazard associated with a natural gas pipeline failure due to natural or manmade disasters. IPRM aims to optimize the allocation of the available resources to countermeasures in order to minimize the impacts of pipeline failure to humans, the environment, the infrastructure and the economic activity. A proposed knapsack mathematical programming formulation is introduced that optimally selects the proper mitigation policies based on the estimated cost – benefit ratios. The proposed model is demonstrated with a small numerical example. The vulnerability analysis of these pipelines and the quantification of consequences from such failures can be useful for natural gas industries on deciding which mitigation measures to implement on the existing pipeline networks with the minimum cost in an acceptable level of hazard.

Keywords: cost benefit analysis, knapsack problem, natural gas distribution network, risk management, risk mitigation

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Authors: Didier Birimwiragi Namogo

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The Kivu Lake Basin is located in the Western Branch of the East African Rift. In this basin is located a multitude of active faults, on which earthquakes occur regularly. The most recent earthquakes date from 2008, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The cities of Bukabu and Goma in DR Congo and Giseyi in Rwanda are the most impacted by this intense seismic activity in the region. The magnitude of the strongest earthquakes in the region is 6.1. The 2008 earthquake was particularly destructive, killing several people in DR Congo and Rwanda. This work aims to complete the distribution of seismicity in the region, deduce areas of weakness and establish a hazard map that can assist in seismic risk management. Using the local seismic network of the Goma Volcano Observatory, the earthquakes were relocated, and their focus mechanism was studied. The results show that most of these earthquakes occur on active faults described by Villeneuve in 1938. The alignment of the earthquakes shows a pace that follows directly the directions of the faults described by this author. The study of the focus mechanism of these earthquakes, also shows that these are in particular normal faults whose stresses show an extensive activity. Such study can be used for the establishment of seismic risk management tools.

Keywords: earthquakes, hazard map, faults, focus mechanism

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: F. Gallop, C. Ward, M. Zaky, M. Vaghela, R. Sabaratnam

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Nitrous oxide (N₂O) has been used in anaesthesia for over 150 years owing to advantageous physical and pharmacological properties. However, with a global warming potential of 310, we have an urgent responsibility to reduce its usage and emission. Anecdotal evidence in our hospital trust suggests minimal N₂O usage, yet our theatres receive a staggering supply. This warranted further investigation. We used a data collection tool to prospectively capture quantitative and qualitative data regarding N₂O cases during one week: this recorded demographics, N₂O indications, clinical management, and total N₂O consumption in litres. In addition, N₂O usage in dental sedation suites and paediatric theatres was separately quantified. Pipeline supply data was acquired from British Oxygen Company accounts. We captured 490 cases. 4% (n=19) used N₂O, 63% (n=12) of these in dental theatres. Common N₂0 indications were induction speed (37%) and rapidly increasing anaesthesia depth (32%). In adult cases, N₂O was always used intraoperatively rather than solely at induction. 74% (n=14) of anaesthetists reported environmental concern over using N₂O. The week’s total N₂O usage was 8109 litres, amounting to 421,668 litres annually. However, the annual N₂O pipeline supply is 2,997,000 litres; an enormous 1.8 million Kg of CO₂. Our results supportively demonstrate that the N₂O pipeline supply greatly exceeds its clinical use. Acknowledging clinical areas not audited, the discrepancy between supply and usage suggests approximately 2.5 million litres of yearly wastage. We consequently recommend terminating the N₂O pipeline supply in minimally used areas, eliminating 1.5 million Kg of CO₂ emissions. High usage clinical areas could consider portable N₂O cylinders as an alternative. In Sweden, N₂O destruction technology is routinely used to minimise CO₂ emissions. Our results support National Health System investment in similar infrastructure.

Keywords: anaesthesia, environment, medical gases, nitrous oxide, sustainability

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Authors: Eman Hegazy, Stefan Anderberg, Joakim Krook

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Urban water infrastructure systems are central to functioning cities. For securing a continuous and efficient supply of the systems services, continuous investment, maintenance, and renewal are needed. Neglecting maintenance and renewal can lead to recurrent breakdown problems as systems age, which makes it more and more difficult to secure efficient long-term supply. Globally, many cities struggle with aging water infrastructure, often due to competing funding priorities. Investment in maintenance and renewal is not prioritized. The problem primarily stems from the challenge of reaping the benefits of investments promptly. The long-term benefits gained from investing in the renewal of water infrastructure may be achievable in the long run, resulting in the oversight of such investments. This leads to a build-up of "renewal debt" for future generations to inherit. Addressing this issue is difficult due to various contributing factors and the complex nature of the systems. The study aims to contribute to an increased understanding of the long-term management challenges of urban water infrastructure, the development of improved maintenance and renewal strategies through the examination of water infrastructure management, and the assessment of the adequacy of the maintenance and renewal in a case study, the city of Linköping, Sweden. Employing a multi-methods approach, this study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods, including interviews, workshops, and data analysis. The findings of the study provided insights into the current status of the water and sewerage networks in Linkoping, highlighting the risks to ensuring reliable and sustainable water supply and discussing strategies for improving maintenance and renewal.

Keywords: case study, infrastructure management, renewal needs, Sweden, urban water infrastructure

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Authors: Beenish Urooj, Ubaid Ullah, Sidra Riasat

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National Testing Service-Pakistan (NTS) is an agency in Pakistan that conducts student success appraisal examinations. In this research paper, we must present a security model for the NTS organization. The security model will depict certain security countermeasures for a better defense against certain types of breaches and system malware. We will provide a security roadmap, which will help the company to execute its further goals to maintain security standards and policies. We also covered multiple aspects in securing the environment of the organization. We introduced the processes, architecture, data classification, auditing approaches, survey responses, data handling, and also training and awareness of risk for the company. The primary contribution is the Risk Survey, based on the maturity model meant to assess and examine employee training and knowledge of risks in the company's activities.

Keywords: NTS, risk assessment, threat factors, security, services

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Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

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An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Hadi Khorashadi Zadeh, Amin Karkon, Seyd Mohammad Reza Mashhoori ‎

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the technology of Computer audit played a major role in the progress and ‎prospects of a proper application to improve the quality and efficiency of audit ‎work. But due to the technical complexity and the specific risks of computer ‎audit, it should be shown effective in audit and preventive action. Mainly through ‎research in this paper, we proposes the causes of audit risk in a computer ‎environment and the risk of further proposals for measures to control, to some ‎extent reduce the risk of computer audit and improve the audit quality.‎

Keywords: computer auditing, risk, measures to prevent, information technology

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Authors: Debabrata Das

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This paper explains how to design a regulation loop for a power supply circuit. It also discusses the need of a regulation loop and the improvement of a circuit with regulation loop. A sample design is used to demonstrate how to use PSpice to design feedback loop to control output voltage of a power supply and how to check if the power supply is stable or oscillatory. A sample design is made using a specific Integrated Circuit (IC) available in the PSpice library. A designer can experiment feedback loop design using Cadence Pspice tool. PSpice is easy to use, reliable, and convenient. To test a feedback loop, generally, engineers use trial and error method with the hardware which takes a lot of time and manpower. Moreover, it is expensive because component and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) may go bad. PSpice can be used by designers to test their loop designs without using hardware circuits. A designer can save time, cost, manpower and simulate his/her power supply circuit accurately before making a real hardware using this software package.

Keywords: power electronics, feedback loop, regulation, stability, pole, zero, oscillation

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Authors: Naif A. Haddad

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Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatre heritage are exposed to multiple risks at varied times or simultaneously. There is no single reason why a theatre building becomes ‘at risk’, as each case has different circumstances which have led to the theatre building decay. There are complicated processes of destruction and distress that show divergence in theatre building materials' decay. Theatre modern use for cultural performances causes much of the risks concerning the physical structure and authenticity of theatre sites. In addition, there are some deterioration and deformations due to previous poor quality restorations and interventions through related excavation and conservation programmes as also risks to authenticity due to new additions. For preventive conservation, theatre natural and anthropogenic risks management can provide a framework for decision making. These risks to ancient theatre heritage may stem from exposure to one or more risk or synergy of many factors. We, therefore, need to link the theatre natural risks to the risks that come from anthropogenic factors associated with social and economic development. However, this requires a holistic approach, and systematic methodology for understanding these risks from various sources while incorporating specific actions, planning and strategies for each specific risk. Elaborating on recent relevant studies, and ERATO and ATHENA EU projects for ancient theaters and odea and general surveys, this paper attempts to discuss the main aspects of the ancient Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatres risk related issues. Relevant case studies shall also be discussed and investigated to examine frameworks for risk mitigation, and related guidelines and recommendations that provide a systematic approach for sustainable management and planning in relation mainly to ‘compatible use’ of theatre sites.

Keywords: cultural heritage management, European ancient theatres projects, Anthropogenic risks mitigation, sustainable management and planning, preventive conservation, modern use, compatible use

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Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

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Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Climate change has led to decreased water availability in the Gomti Nagar area of Uttar Pradesh, India. Climate change has reduced the amount of precipitation and increased the rate of evaporation. The region is heavily reliant on surface water sources (Gomti river, Sharda Canal) and groundwater. Efficient management of groundwater resources is crucial for addressing water shortages. These may include: Exploring alternative water sources, such as wastewater recycling and desalination, can help augment water supply and reduce dependency on rainfall-dependent sources. Promoting the use of water-efficient technologies in industries, agriculture, and water-efficient infrastructure in urban areas can contribute to reducing water demand and optimizing water use. Incorporating climate change considerations into urban planning and infrastructure development can help ensure water security in the face of future climate uncertainties. Addressing water scarcity in the Gomti Nagar area requires a multi-pronged approach that combines sustainable groundwater management practices, climate change adaptation strategies, and integrated water resource management. By implementing these measures, the region can work towards ensuring a more sustainable and reliable water supply in the context of climate change. Water is the most important natural resource for the existence of living beings in the Earth's ecosystem. On Earth, 1.2 percent of the water is drinkable, but only 0.3 percent is usable by people. Water scarcity is a growing concern in India due to the impact of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources. Excess groundwater withdrawal causes regular declines in groundwater level. Due to city boundary expansion and growing urbanization, the recharge point for groundwater tables is decreasing. Rainwater infiltration into the subsoil is also reduced by unplanned, uneven settlements in urban change.

Keywords: climate change, water scarcity, groundwater, rainfall, water supply

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Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Tzu-Chiao Yuan

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This research aims to construct the supply indicators and weights of shelter space from a perspective of the needs of the elderly by virtue of literature review, a systematical compilation of related regulations, and the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process method, the questionnaires regarding the indicators filled out by 16 experts and scholars. The researcher then used 3 schools and 2 activity centers in Banqiao District, New Taipei City, as study cases to evaluate the ‘friendliness’ degree/level for the supply of shelters meeting the needs of elderly people. The supply evaluation indicators of friendly shelters meeting the needs of the elderly include "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" and "Residence-related and Living Needs"; under the "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" are "Management Operations and Information Provision", "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support", "Medical Care and Social Support", and "Shelters and Medical Environment", a total of 17 assessment items in four indicators, while under the "Residence-related and Living Needs" are "Dietary Needs", "Sleep Needs", "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs", "Accessibility and Convenience Needs ", etc., a total of 18 assessment items in four indicators. The results show that "Residence-related and Living Needs" is the most important item in the main levels of the supply indicators of the needs for friendly shelters to elderly people (weigh value 0.5504), followed by "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" (0.4496). The order of importance of the supply indicators of friendly shelters for the needs of elderly people is as follows: "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs" (0.1721), "Dietary Needs" (0.1340), "Medical Care and Social Support" (0.1300), "Sleep Needs" (0.1277), "Accessibility and Convenience Needs" (0.1166), "Basic Environment of Shelters" (0.1145), "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support" (0.1115) and "Management Operations and Information Provision" (0.0936). In addition, it can be noticed from the results of the case evaluation that the provision of refuges and shelters, mainly from schools and activity centers, is extremely inadequate for the needs of the elderly. In a set of comprehensive comparisons and contrasts, the evaluation indicators of refuges and shelters that need to be improved are "Medical Care and Social Support", "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs", "Sleep Needs", "Dietary Needs", and "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support".

Keywords: needs of the elderly people, urban shelters, evaluation indicators/indices., taiwan

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Authors: Rama Bhattacharyya, S. N. Ojha, Umesh K. Singh

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Anthropogenic control on groundwater chemistry has emerged as a critical concern now-a-days, especially in the industrial areas. In view of this, a comprehensive study on the distribution of the heavy metal in the groundwater was conducted to investigate the impact of urbanization in the aquatic media. Water samples either from well or borehole from Fourty different sites in and around, Durgapur, West Bengal were collected for this purpose. The samples were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) for Calcium (Ca), Cobalt (Co), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Magnesium (Mg), Manganese (Mn), Sodium (Na), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn) content and the levels were compared with WHO specified maximum contaminant level as well as permissible limits given by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The result obtained from the present study indicates a significant risk to the population of this important emerging ‘smart city’ of eastern India. Because of the toxicity of these metals and the fact that for many tube-wells, dug-wells and bore-wells are the only sources of the water supply for a major fraction of the population in this environment. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop metal contamination risk map.

Keywords: heavy metals, ground water, maximum contamination level, ICP-MS

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Authors: Ali Bakari Mohammed

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Transitioning is a continuous process of radical change in a society which involves co-evolution of institutional, technological, socio-cultural, and ecological developments at different scales and levels. Transition management model is a methodology that influences structural change of complex systems over a period (0-30 years) by experimenting and implementing new techniques. A transition management in the context of groundwater is a radical change from the current operate and control system to a next generation integrated and sustainable system that takes into account quality protection and sustained supply into the future. This study evaluates the transition management model in adopting it as a viable tool for the attainment of sustainable groundwater management. The outcome of the evaluation shows that there are three levels (strategic, tactical and operational) of operating the transition management model. At the strategic level, long-term goals for sustainable groundwater management are formulated, at the tactical level activities such as inter institutional networking, negotiation, planning and financing are carried out, and at the operational level, transition experiments and strategic niche management are carried out at the societal level. Overall, different actors and set of activities are required to partake at each management level. The outcome of this paper will provide basis for the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 in Nigeria.

Keywords: transition management, groundwater, sustainable management, tool, Nigeria

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Authors: Vrajesh Chokshi

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In last three decades, the global economy is substantially changed. Today, we are living in highly inter-connected world. The global markets are more open and consumers are well informed about products and services. The information technology revolution has broken all barriers in global business. The E-commerce has given opportunities of global trades to corporate. The IT is extensively used in almost all industries. After liberalization in 1992, the Indian economy is also significantly changed. The IT (information technology) and ITES (IT enable services) are extensively used in supply chain management. In India, previously car rental service business was dominated by local organization and operated through local contact. This industry is very lucrative and to catch this opportunity, many new corporate have ventured into e-commerce car rental service business in India. As the market is very competitive, branding is also very important part of marketing strategy. Now, the E-commerce portals those are in car rental business in India have realized the importance of the same and have started usage of all types of communication channel to promote their brand in different Indian markets. At consumer side, the awareness is also being considerably increased due to marketing communication campaign run by these companies. This paper aims to understand effectiveness of branding strategies in car rental business in India and also tries to identify unique promotional strategies to consolidate brand image of this business in different Indian markets.

Keywords: branding strategies, car rental business, CRM (customer relationship management), ITES (information technology enabled services)

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Authors: Geday Elias, Montaigne Etienne, Padilla Martine, Tollossa Degefa

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Smallholder farmers’ participation in agricultural value chain identified as a pathway to get out of poverty trap in Ethiopia. The smallholder dairy activities have a huge potential in poverty reduction through enhancing income, achieving food and nutritional security in the country. However, much less is known about the effects of smallholder’s participation in milk value chain on household food security and nutrition. This paper therefore, aims at evaluating the effects of smallholders’ participation in milk value chain on household food security taking in to account the four pillars of food security measurements (availability, access, utilization and stability). Using a semi-structured interview, a cross sectional farm household data collected from a randomly selected sample of 333 households (170 in Amhara and 163 in Oromia regions).Binary logit and propensity score matching( PSM) models are employed to examine the mechanisms through which smallholder’s participation in the milk value chain affects household food security where crop production, per capita calorie intakes, diet diversity score, and food insecurity access scale are used to measure food availability, access, utilization and stability respectively. Our findings reveal from 333 households, only 34.5% of smallholder farmers are participated in the milk value chain. Limited access to inputs and services, limited access to inputs markets and high transaction costs are key constraints for smallholders’ limited access to the milk value chain. To estimate the true average participation effects of milk value chain for participated households, the outcome variables (food security) of farm households who participated in milk value chain are compared with the outcome variables if the farm households had not participated. The PSM analysis reveals smallholder’s participation in milk value chain has a significant positive effect on household income, food security and nutrition. Smallholder farmers who are participated in milk chain are better by 15 quintals crops production and 73 percent of per capita calorie intakes in food availability and access respectively than smallholder farmers who are not participated in the market. Similarly, the participated households are better in dietary quality by 112 percents than non-participated households. Finally, smallholders’ who are participated in milk value chain are better in reducing household vulnerability to food insecurity by an average of 130 percent than non participated households. The results also shows income earned from milk value chain participation contributed to reduce capital’s constraints of the participated households’ by higher farm income and total household income by 5164 ETB and 14265 ETB respectively. This study therefore, confirms the potential role of smallholders’ participation in food value chain to get out of poverty trap through improving rural household income, food security and nutrition. Therefore, identified the determinants of smallholder participation in milk value chain and the participation effects on food security in the study areas are worth considering as a positive knock for policymakers and development agents to tackle the poverty trap in the study area in particular and in the country in general.

Keywords: effects, food security and nutrition, milk, participation, smallholders, value chain

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Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system

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Authors: Lo Kar Yin

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In view of the increasing speed and quantity of the housing supply, building, and civil engineering infrastructure works triggered by the pandemic across the globe, contractors, professional services providers (PSP), including consultants (e.g., architect, project manager, civil/geotechnical/structural engineer, building services engineer, quantity surveyor/cost manager, etc.) and suppliers have faced tremendous challenges of the fierce market, limited manpower, and resources under contract prices fluctuation and competitive fee and price. With qualitative analysis, this paper is to review the available information from the industry stakeholders with a view to finding solutions for enhancing efficiency, safety, and quality of construction value chain services for public and private organizations/companies’ sustainable growth, not limited to checking the deliverables and data transfer from multi-disciplinary parties. Technology, contracts, and people are the key requirements for shaping the construction industry. With the integration of a modern engineering contract (e.g., NEC) collaborative approach, practical workflows are designed to address loopholes together with different levels of people employment/retention and technology adoption to achieve the best value for money.

Keywords: efficiency, safety, quality, technology, contract, people, sustainable solutions, construction, services, integration

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

Procedia PDF Downloads 163