Search results for: decisions under uncertainty

Authors: Gaoguang Yang, Shan Fu

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Human-machine interface (HMI) intermediate system information to human operators to facilitate human ability to manage and control the system. Well-designed HMI would enhance human ability. An evaluation must be performed to confirm that the designed HMI would enhance but not degrade human ability. However, the prevalent HMI evaluation techniques have difficulties in more thoroughly and accurately evaluating the suitability and fitness of a given HMI for the wide variety of uncertainty contained in both the existing HMI evaluation techniques and the large number of task scenarios. The first limitation should be attributed to the subjective and qualitative analysis characteristics of these evaluation methods, and the second one should be attributed to the cost balance. This study aims to explore the connection between objective HMI characters and ergonomic safety and step forward toward solving these limitations with objective, characterized HMI parameters. A simulation experiment was performed with the time needed for human operators to recognize the HMI information as characterized HMI parameter, and the result showed a strong correlation between the parameter and ergonomic safety level.

Keywords: Human-Machine Interface (HMI), evaluation, objective, characterization, simulation

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Authors: Hong-Ming Chen

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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.

Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic

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Authors: Abigail Mosetsanagape Mooketsi, Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale, Joel Hinaunye Eita

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The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth in South Africa through Engle Granger two step approach using the data from 1970 to 2013. GDP is used as a proxy for economic growth whilst rail transport (rail lines, rail goods transported) and air transport(air passengers carried, air freight) are used as proxies for transport infrastructure. The results showed that there is a positive long-run relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth. The results show that South Africa’s economic growth can be boosted by providing transport infrastructure. The estimated models were simulated and the results that the model is a good fit. The findings of this research will be beneficial to policy makers, academics and it will also enhance the ability of the investors to make informed decisions about investing in South Africa.

Keywords: transport, infrastructure, economic growth, South Africa

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Authors: Ali Allahverdi, Harun Aydilek, Asiye Aydilek

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Minimizing the number of tardy jobs is an important factor to consider while making scheduling decisions. This is because on-time shipments are vital for lowering cost and increasing customers’ satisfaction. This paper addresses the single machine scheduling problem with the objective of minimizing the number of tardy jobs. The only known information is the lower and upper bounds for processing times, and deterministic job due dates. A dominance relation is established, and an algorithm is proposed. Several heuristics are generated from the proposed algorithm. Computational analysis indicates that the performance of one of the heuristics is very close to the optimal solution, i.e., on average, less than 1.5 % from the optimal solution.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, number of tardy jobs, heuristi, lower and upper bounds

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Authors: Yashar Ibragimov, Nino Berishvili

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Technological, economic and other innovation-related advances of the 21st century have influenced the old, traditional business models. Presently, organizational change has become an integral part of corporate strategy for the majority of businesses. Such shifts have resulted in both new challenges and opportunities. The expansion of the use of information and communication technologies has driven fundamental shifts towards digital change. Organizations are being forced to revise processes, goals and overall mission in order to stay competitive in the marketplace. However, the implementation of digital transformation brings uncertainty, causes stress and raises concerns about future jobs. The study employs systematic literature review to fill the gap in understanding relationship between employee motivation and commitment during the transformation. A conceptual model proposes the antecedents (OCB and Leader Member Exchange) of employee motivation and investigates its impact on employee commitment to change. The utilized model elucidates how to maintain employee motivation and commitment in the context of organizational transformation and sets the ground for future research.

Keywords: employee motivation, change commitment, change management, leader member exchange, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: Xin Jie Li

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Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

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Authors: Caner Koc, Dilara Gerdan Koc, Mustafa Vatandas

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The fundamental components of autonomous agricultural robot design, such as having a working understanding of coordinates, correctly constructing the desired route, and sensing environmental elements, are the most important. A variety of sensors, hardware, and software are employed by agricultural robots to find these systems.These enable the fully automated driving system of an autonomous vehicle to simulate how a human-driven vehicle would respond to changing environmental conditions. To calculate the vehicle's motion trajectory using data from the sensors, this automation system typically consists of a sophisticated software architecture based on object detection and driving decisions. In this study, the software architecture of an autonomous agricultural vehicle is compared to the trajectory planning techniques.

Keywords: agriculture 5.0, computational intelligence, motion planning, trajectory planning

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Authors: Hugh Byrd, Steve Matthewnan

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The devastation of the city centre of Christchurch, New Zealand, after the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes presented an opportunity to rebuild infrastructure in a coordinated and efficient manner to allow for a city that was energy efficient, low carbon, resilient and provided both energy security and justice. The research described in this paper records the processes taken to attempt to rebuild the energy infrastructure. The story is one of political decisions overriding appropriate technology and ultimately is a lesson in how not to handle the implementation of post-disaster energy infrastructure. Lack of clarity in decision making by central government and then not pursuing consultant’s recommendations led to a scheme that was effectively abandoned in 2016 and described as ‘a total failure’. The paper records the critical events that occurred and explains why the proposed energy infrastructure was both politically and technologically inappropriate.

Keywords: energy infrastructure, policy and governance, post-disaster rebuilding

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Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

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Authors: Zylfi Shehu, Rozeta Shatku

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The aim of this study is the identification of the goods and the consequences it brings up the mountain climbing to the youth, how mountain climbing influences in physical activity and the health of young people. Taken to study 37 young people aged 18-30 years, 25 males and 12 females. The selection was made at random and voluntary. Subjects were not professionals but amateurs climbing in the mountain. They were informed and instructed for the test to be carried out. The ascent was made in January 2016 in the Mount of Gjallica in Kukës, Albania, the height of the mountain is 2489 m above sea level. Backpack for each subject weighing 32 kg. Time of ascent, attitude and descent was 6 days. In 22 males, 2 of them did not afford the ascent on the first day and went back. Of the 12 women, 5 of them withdrew on the first day. During the descent on day six, 20 males 7 of them had minor injuries, three with serious injuries. While a total of 7 women, 4 of them had minor injuries and one with serious injuries. Most of the men and women who deal with physical activity throughout life faced the light and were not injured, and the rest that were not dealt with physical activity were more injured. Lack of experience and knowledge was one of the causes of injuries. The subjects had anxiety all the time, uncertainty and fear of avalanches of snow and difficult terrain.

Keywords: climbing, physical activity, young people

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Kioumarsi

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In this paper, using the response surface method (RSM), tornado diagram method and non-linear finite element analysis, the effect of four parameters on residual bending capacity of a corroded RC beam was investigated. The parameters considered are amount of localised cross section reduction, ratio of pit distance on adjacent bars to rebar distance, concrete compressive strength, and rebar tensile strength. The focus is on the influence on the bending ultimate limit state. Based on the obtained results, the effects of the ratio of pit distance to rebar distance (Lp⁄Lr) and the ratio of the localised cross section reduction to the original area of the rebar (Apit⁄A0) were found significant. The interference of localised corrosion on adjacent reinforcement bars reduces the bending capacity of under-reinforced concrete beam. Using the sensitivity analysis could lead to recognize uncertainty parameters, which have the most influences on the performance of the structure.

Keywords: localised corrosion, concrete beam, sensitivity analyses, ultimate capacity

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Authors: Hassina Gheribi, Salim Boukebbab

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The measurement of the parts manufactured on CMM (coordinate measuring machine) is based on the association of a surface of perfect geometry to the group of dots palpated via a mathematical calculation of the distances between the palpated points and itself surfaces. Surfaces not being never perfect, they are measured by a number of points higher than the minimal number necessary to define them mathematically. However, the central problems of three-dimensional metrology are the estimate of, the orientation parameters, location and intrinsic of this surface. Including the numerical uncertainties attached to these parameters help the metrologist to make decisions to be able to declare the conformity of the part to specifications fixed on the design drawing. During this paper, we will present a data-processing model in Visual Basic-6 which makes it possible automatically to determine the whole of these parameters, and their uncertainties.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machines (CMM), associated surface, uncertainties of measurement, acquisition and modeling

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Authors: Zhengyang Ma, Zhiyao Li, Jiayi Zhang

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This article examines the prospect theory’s arguments about decision-making through two case studies, the First Gulf War and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The article uses the methods of comparative case analysis and process tracing to investigate the prospect theory’s fundamental arguments. Through evidence derived from existing primary and secondary sources, this paper argues that both former U.S. President Bush and Russian President Putin viewed their situations as a domain of loss and made risky decisions to prevent further deterioration, which attests the arguments of the prospect theory. After the two case studies, this article also discusses how the prospect theory could be used in analyzing the decision-making process that led to the current Russia-Ukraine War.

Keywords: the prospect theory, international relations, the first gulf war, the crimea crisis

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Authors: Ahteshamul Haq, Srikant Gupta, Murshid Kamal, Irfan Ali

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This case study designs and builds a multi-objective production planning model for a hardware firm with certain & uncertain data. During the time of interaction with the manager of the firm, they indicate some of the parameters may be vague. This vagueness in the formulated model is handled by the concept of fuzzy set theory. Triangular & Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to represent the uncertainty in the collected data. The fuzzy nature is de-fuzzified into the crisp form using well-known defuzzification method via graded mean integration representation method. The proposed model attempts to maximize the production of the firm, profit related to the manufactured items & minimize the carrying inventory costs in both certain & uncertain environment. The recommended optimal plan is determined via fuzzy programming approach, and the formulated models are solved by using optimizing software LINGO 16.0 for getting the optimal production plan. The proposed model yields an efficient compromise solution with the overall satisfaction of decision maker.

Keywords: production planning problem, multi-objective optimization, fuzzy programming, fuzzy sets

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Authors: Ismatilla Mardanov

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There are three types of countries, the first of which is willing to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in enormous amounts and do whatever it takes to make this happen. Therefore, FDI pours into such countries. In the second cluster of countries, even if the country is suffering tremendously from the shortage of investments, the governments are hesitant to attract investments because they are at the hands of local oligarchs/cartels. Therefore, FDI inflows are moderate to low in such countries. The third type is countries whose companies prefer investing in the most efficient locations globally and are hesitant to invest in the homeland. Sorting countries into such clusters, the present study examines the essential institutions and economic factors that make these countries different. Past literature has discussed various determinants of FDI in all kinds of countries. However, it did not classify countries based on government motivation, institutional setup, and economic factors. A specific approach to each target country is vital for corporate foreign direct investment risk analysis and decisions. The research questions are 1. What specific institutional and economic factors paint the pictures of the three clusters; 2. What specific institutional and economic factors are determinants of FDI; 3. Which of the determinants are endogenous and exogenous variables? 4. How can institutions and economic and political variables impact corporate investment decisions Hypothesis 1: In the first type, country institutions and economic factors will be favorable for FDI. Hypothesis 2: In the second type, even if country economic factors favor FDI, institutions will not. Hypothesis 3: In the third type, even if country institutions favorFDI, economic factors will not favor domestic investments. Therefore, FDI outflows occur in large amounts. Methods: Data come from open sources of the World Bank, the Fraser Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and other reliable sources. The dependent variable is FDI inflows. The independent variables are institutions (economic and political freedom indices) and economic factors (natural, material, and labor resources, government consumption, infrastructure, minimum wage, education, unemployment, tax rates, consumer price index, inflation, and others), the endogeneity or exogeneity of which are tested in the instrumental variable estimation. Political rights and civil liberties are used as instrumental variables. Results indicate that in the first type, both country institutions and economic factors, specifically labor and logistics/infrastructure/energy intensity, are favorable for potential investors. In the second category of countries, the risk of loss of assets is very high due to governmentshijacked by local oligarchs/cartels/special interest groups. In the third category of countries, the local economic factors are unfavorable for domestic investment even if the institutions are well acceptable. Cluster analysis and instrumental variable estimation were used to reveal cause-effect patterns in each of the clusters.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, economy, institutions, instrumental variable estimation

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Authors: Sylvain Caillol

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Uncertainty in terms of price and availability of petroleum, in addition to global political and institutional tendencies toward the principles of sustainable development, urge chemical industry to a sustainable chemistry and particularly the use of renewable resources in order to synthesize biobased chemicals and products. We propose a platform approach for the synthesis of various building blocks from cardanol in one or two-steps syntheses. Cardanol, which is a natural phenol, is issued from Cashew Nutshell Liquid (CNSL), a non-edible renewable resource, co-produced from cashew industry in large commercial volumes. Cardanol is particularly interesting to replace fossil aromatic groups in polymers and materials. Our team studied various routes for the synthesis of cardanol-derived biobased building blocks used after that in polymer syntheses. For example, we used phenolation to dimerize/oligomerize cardanol to propose increase functionality of cardanol. Thio-ene was used to synthesize new reactive amines. Epoxidation and (meth)acrylation were also used to insert oxirane or (meth)acrylate groups in order to synthesize polymers and materials.

Keywords: cardanol, cashew nutshell liquid, epoxy, vinyl ester, latex, emulsion

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Authors: Alexis Naranjo

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In the current global stage, a new sense and mix feelings against the globalization has started to take shape thanks to events such as Brexit and the 2016 US election. The perceptions towards the globalization have started to focus in a resistance movement called the 'anti-globalization movement'. This paper examines the current global stage vs. leadership decisions in a time when market integrations are not longer seeing as an opportunity for an economic growth buster. The biggest economy in the world the United States of America has started to face a new beginning of something called 'anti-globalization', in the current global stage starting with the United Kingdom to the United States a new strategy to help local economies has started to emerge. A new nationalist movement has started to focus on their local economies which now represents a direct threat to the globalization, trade agreements, wages and free markets. Business leaders of multinationals now in our days face a new dilemma, how to address the feeling that globalization and outsourcing destroy and take away jobs from local economies. The initial perception of the literature and data rebels that companies in Western countries like the US sees many risks associate with outsourcing, however, saving cost associated with outsourcing is greater than the firm’s local reputation. Starting with India as a good example of a supplier of IT developers, analysts and call centers we can start saying that India is an industrialized nation which has not yet secured its spot and title. India has emerged as a powerhouse in the outsource industry, which makes India hold the number one spot in the world to outsource IT services. Thanks to the globalization of economies and markets around the globe that new ideas to increase productivity at a lower cost has been existing for years and has started to offer new ideas and options to businesses in different industries. The economic growth of the information technology (IT) industry in India is an example of the power of the globalization which in the case of India has been tremendous and significant especially in the economic arena. This research paper concentrates in understand the behavior of business leaders: First, how multinational’s leaders will face the new challenges and what actions help them to lead in turbulent times. Second, if outsourcing or withdraw from a market is an option what are the consequences and how you communicate and negotiate from the business leader perspective. Finally, is the perception of leaders focusing on financial results or they have a different goal? To answer these questions, this study focuses on the most recent data available to outline and present the findings of the reason why outsourcing is and option and second, how and why those decisions are made. This research also explores the perception of the phenomenon of outsourcing in many ways and explores how the globalization has contributed to its own questioning.

Keywords: anti-globalization, globalization, leadership, outsourcing

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Authors: Daniel C. S. Lim

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There are numerous nutritional supplements, such as multivitamins and nutrition drinks, in the market today. Many of these supplements are expensive and tend to be driven commercially by business decisions and big marketing budgets. Many of the costs are ultimately borne by the end user in the quest for keeping to a healthy lifestyle. This paper proposes a system with a list of ten determinants to gauge how to decide the value of various supplements. It suggests variables such as composition, safety, efficacy and bioavailability, as well as several other considerations. These guidelines can help to tackle many of the issues that people of all ages face in the way that they receive essential nutrients. The system also aims to promote and improve the safety and choice of foods and supplements. In so doing, the system aims to promote the individual’s or population’s control over their own health and reduce the growing health care burden on the society.

Keywords: choice of foods and supplements, essential nutrients, nutritional supplements, system safety

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Shyamani Hettiarachchi

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Aim: Siblings of children with cerebral palsy are often in the periphery of discussions; their views not always taken into account. The aim of this study was to uncover the narratives of young siblings of children with cerebral palsy in Sri Lanka. Methods: Semi-structured interviews and artwork were gathered from 10 children who have siblings diagnosed with cerebral palsy. The data was analyzed using the key principles of Framework Analysis to determine the key themes within the narratives. Results: The key themes to emerge were complex and nuanced. These included themes of love and feeling of protectiveness; jealousy and uncertainly; guilt and hope. Conclusions: The results highlight the need to take document the views of siblings who are often on the margins of the family and of family decisions and discussions. It also supports the need to offer safe spaces and opportunities for siblings of children with disabilities to express their feelings and to receive support where required.

Keywords: disability, grandmothers, mothers, narratives, women

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Authors: Dalia Rimawi, Walid Salameh, Amal Al-Omari, Hadeel AbdelKhaleq

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Predication of Survival time of patients with cancer, is a core factor that influences oncologist decisions in different aspects; such as offered treatment plans, patients’ quality of life and medications development. For a long time proportional hazards Cox regression (ph. Cox) was and still the most well-known statistical method to predict survival outcome. But due to the revolution of data sciences; new predication models were employed and proved to be more flexible and provided higher accuracy in that type of studies. Artificial neural network is one of those models that is suitable to handle time to event predication. In this study we aim to compare ph Cox regression with artificial neural network method according to data handling and Accuracy of each model.

Keywords: Cox regression, neural networks, survival, cancer.

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Authors: Farzane Sadatnia, Bahram Fathi

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Today, all public and private organizations have found that the management of the world for key information related to the activities of a staff and its main essence and philosophy, though they constitute the management information systems are very helpful in this respect the right to apply systems can save a lot in terms of economic organizations including reducing the time decision - making, improve the quality of decision making, and cost savings to bring information systems is a backup system that can never be instead of logic and human reasoning, which can be used in the series is spreading, providing resources, and provide the necessary facilities, provide better services for users, balanced budget allocation, determine strengths and weaknesses and previous plans to review the current decisions and especially the decision . Hence; in this study attempts to the effect of an information system on a review of the organization.

Keywords: information system, planning, organization, coordination, control

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Authors: Ming-Yue Zhai

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Due to the multipath and pulse noise nature, power line communications(PLC) channel can be modelled as a memory one with the finite states Markov model(FSMC). As the most important parameter modelling a Markov channel,the memory order in an FSMC is not solved in PLC systems yet. In the paper, the mutual information is used as a measure of the dependence between the different symbols, treated as the received SNA or amplitude of the current channel symbol or that of previous symbols. The joint distribution probabilities of the envelopes in PLC systems are computed based on the multi-path channel model, which is commonly used in PLC. we confirm that given the information of the symbol immediately preceding the current one, any other previous symbol is independent of the current one in PLC systems, which means the PLC channels is a Markov chain with the first-order. The field test is also performed to model the received OFDM signals with the help of AR model. The results show that the first-order AR model is enough to model the fading channel in PLC systems, which means the amount of uncertainty remaining in the current symbol should be negligible, given the information corresponding to the immediately preceding one.

Keywords: power line communication, channel model, markovian, information theory, first-order

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Authors: Svetlana Pushkar

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Eco-indicator 99 (EI99) considers fundamental life cycle assessment (LCA) uncertainties via egalitarian/egalitarian (e/e), hierarchist/hierarchist (h/h), individualist/individualist (i/i), individualist/average (i/a), egalitarian/average (e/a), and hierarchist/average (h/a) methodological options. The objective of this study is to provide a reliable two-stage nested mixed balanced Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test as a supplemental test to EI99 to address the problematic combination of similarly and not similarly produced materials usually found in building technologies. The robustness of the test was determined from both the “EI99 (all options)” stage (including e/e, i/i, h/h, e/a, i/a, and h/a - all methodological options) and the “EI99 (perspectives)” stage (including e/e, i/i, and h/h methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with their particular weighting set or e/a, i/a, and h/a methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with the average weighting set) of evaluating building technologies.

Keywords: building technologies, LCA uncertainty, Eco-indicator 99, two-stage nested mixed ANOVA test

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Authors: Josiah A. Adeyemo, Fred A. O. Otieno, Olumuyiwa I. Ojo

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South Africa is water-stressed being a semi-arid country with limited annual rainfall supply and a lack of perennial streams. The future implications of population growth combined with the uncertainty of climate change are likely to have significant financial, human and ecological impacts on already scarce water resources. The waste water from the drainage canals of the Vaal-Harts irrigation scheme (VHS) located in Jan Kempdorp, a farming community in South Africa, were investigated for possible irrigation re-use and their effects on the immediate environment. Three major drains within the scheme were identified and sampled. Drainage water samples were analysed to determine its characteristics. The water samples analyzed had pH values in the range of 5.5 and 6.4 which is below the normal range for irrigation water and very low to moderate salinity (electrical conductivity 0.09-0.82 dS/m). The adjusted sodium adsorption ratio values in all the samples were also very low (<0.2), indicating very low sodicity hazards. The nitrate concentration in most of the samples was high, ranging from 4.8 to 53 mg/l. The reuse of the drainage water for irrigation is possible, but with further treatment. Some suggestions were offered in the safe management of drainage water in VHS.

Keywords: drainage canal, water quality, irrigation, pollutants, environment

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Authors: Jun Yuan

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Shipping is a major transportation mode all over the world, and it has a significant contribution to global carbon emissions. Electrification of ships is one of the main strategies to reduce shipping carbon emissions. The number of electric ships has continued to grow in recent years. However, charging infrastructure is still scarce, which severely restricts the development of electric ships. Therefore, it is very important to design ship charging stations reasonably by comprehensively considering charging demand and investment costs. This study aims to minimize the full life cycle cost of charging stations, considering the uncertainty of charging demand. A mixed integer programming model is developed for this optimization problem. Based on the characteristics of the mathematical model, a simulation based optimization method is proposed to find the optimal number and rated power of chargers. In addition, the impact of renewable energy and storage systems is analyzed. The results can provide decision support and a reference basis for the design of ship charging stations.

Keywords: shipping emission, electricity ship, charging station, optimal design

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Authors: Rik van Leeuwen, Ger Koole

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Within hospitality, marketing departments use segmentation to create tailored strategies to ensure personalized marketing. This study provides a data-driven approach by segmenting guest profiles via hierarchical clustering based on an extensive set of features. The industry requires understandable outcomes that contribute to adaptability for marketing departments to make data-driven decisions and ultimately driving profit. A marketing department specified a business question that guides the unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Features of guests change over time; therefore, there is a probability that guests transition from one segment to another. The purpose of the study is to provide steps in the process from raw data to actionable insights, which serve as a guideline for how hospitality companies can adopt an algorithmic approach.

Keywords: hierarchical cluster analysis, hospitality, market segmentation

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Authors: Nicolay Worren, Christopher A. Brown

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Axiomatic design (AD) has mainly been applied to support the design of physical products and software solutions. However, it was intended as a general design approach that would also be applicable to the design of social systems, including organizations (i.e., organization design). In this article, we consider how AD may be successfully transferred to the field of organizational design. On the one hand, it provides a much-needed pragmatic approach that can help leaders clarify the link between the purpose and structure of their organizations, identify ineffective organizational structures, and increase the chance of achieving strategic goals. On the other hand, there are four conceptual challenges that may create uncertainty and resistance among scholars and practitioners educated in the social sciences: 1) The exclusive focus in AD on negative interdependencies ('coupling'); 2) No obvious way of representing the need for integration across design parameters (DPs); 3) A lack of principles for handling control processes that seem to require 'deliberate coupling' of FRs; and 4) A lack of principles for handling situations where conflicting FRs (i.e., coupling) might require integration rather than separation. We discuss alternative options for handling these challenges so that scholars and practitioners can make use of AD for organization design.

Keywords: axiomatic design, organization design, social systems, concept definitions

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Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

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