Search results for: aerosol dynamics

Authors: Andrew Couch, Nicholas Loyd, Nathan Tenhundfeld

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The rapid emergence of technology observably induces disruptive effects that carry implications for internal organizational dynamics as well as external market opportunities, strategic pressures, and threats. An examination of the historical tendencies of technology innovation shows that the body of managerial knowledge for addressing such disruption is underdeveloped. Fundamentally speaking, the impacts of innovation are unique and situationally oriented. Hence, the appropriate managerial response becomes a complex function that depends on the nature of the emerging technology, the posturing of internal organizational dynamics, the rate of technological growth, and much more. This research considers a particular case of mismanagement, the BP Texas City Refinery explosion of 2005, that carries notable discrepancies on the basis of human factors principles. Moreover, this research considers the modern technological climate (shaped by Industry 4.0 technologies) and seeks to arrive at an appropriate conceptual lens by which human factors principles and Industry 4.0 may be favorably integrated. In this manner, the careful examination of these phenomena helps to better support the sustainment of human factors principles despite the disruptive impacts that are imparted by technological innovation. In essence, human factors considerations are assessed through the application of principles that stem from usability engineering, the Swiss Cheese Model of accident causation, human-automation interaction, signal detection theory, alarm design, and other factors. Notably, this stream of research supports a broader framework in seeking to guide organizations amid the uncertainties of Industry 4.0 to capture higher levels of adoption, implementation, and transparency.

Keywords: Industry 4.0, human factors engineering, management, case study

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Authors: Larisa Gheber

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Mitosis is an essential process by which duplicated genetic information is transmitted from mother to daughter cells. Incorrect chromosome segregation during mitosis can lead to genetic diseases, chromosome instability and cancer. This process is mediated by a dynamic microtubule-based intracellular structure, the mitotic spindle. One of the major factors that govern the mitotic spindle dynamics are the kinesin-5 biological nano motors that were believed to move unidirectionally on the microtubule filaments, using ATP hydrolysis, thus performing essential functions in mitotic spindle dynamics. Surprisingly, several reports from our and other laboratories have demonstrated that some kinesin-5 motors are bi-directional: they move in minus-end direction on the microtubules as single-molecules and can switch directionality under a number of conditions. These findings broke a twenty-five-years old dogma regarding kinesin directionality (1, 2). The mechanism of this bi-directional motility and its physiological significance remain unclear. To address this unresolved problem, we apply an interdisciplinary approach combining live cell imaging, biophysical single molecule, and structural experiments to examine the activity of these motors and their mutated variants in vivo and in vitro. Our data shows that factors such as protein phosphorylation (3, 4), motor clustering on the microtubules (5, 6) and structural elements (7, 8) regulate the bi-directional motility of kinesin motors. We also show, using Cryo-EM, that bi-directional kinesin motors obtain non-canonical microtubule binding, which is essential to their special motile properties and intracellular functions. We will discuss the implication of these findings to mechanism bi-directional motility and physiological roles in mitosis.

Keywords: mitosis, cancer, kinesin, microtubules, biochemistry, biophysics

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Authors: Damaris Estrella Castillo, Zacil ha Vilchis Zapata, Leydi Peraza Gómez

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Hearing loss is an etiologically heterogeneous condition, where almost 60% is genetic in origin, 20% is due to environmental factors, and 20% have unknown causes. However, it is now known that the gene, GJB2, which encodes the connexin 26 protein, accounts for a large percentage of non-syndromic genetic hearing loss, and variants in this gene have been identified to be a common cause of hereditary hearing loss in many populations. The literature reports that the etiology in deafness helps improve family functioning but low-income countries this is difficult. Therefore, it is difficult to contribute the right of families to know about the genetic risk in future pregnancies as well as determining the certainty of being a carrier or affected. In order to assess the impact of genetic counseling and the functionality, 100 families with at least one child with profound hearing loss, were evaluated by specialists in audiology, clinical genetics and psychology. Targeted mutation analysis for one of the two known large deletions of upstream of GJB2/GJB6 gene (35delG; and including GJB2 regulatory sequences and GJB6) were performed in patients with diagnosis of non-syndromic hearing loss. Genetic counseling was given to all parents and primary caregivers, and APGAR family test was applied before and after the counseling. We analyzed a total of 300 members (children, parents) to determine the presence of the GJB2 gene mutation. Twelve patients (carriers and affected) were positive for the mutation, from 5 different families. The subsequent family APGAR testing and genetic counseling, showed that 14% perceived their families as functional, 62 % and 24 % moderately functional dysfunctional. This shows the importance of genetic counseling in the perception of family function that can directly impact the quality of life of these families.

Keywords: family dynamics, deafness, APGAR, counseling

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Authors: Hadjer Didouh, Izzaddine Sameut Bouhaik, Mohammed Hadj Meliani

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This research delves into the intricate dynamics of biofilm adhesion on surfaces, particularly focusing on the widely employed X52 surface in oil and gas industry pipelines. Biofilms, characterized by microorganisms within a self-produced matrix, pose significant challenges due to their detrimental impact on surfaces. Our study integrates advanced molecular techniques and cutting-edge microscopy, such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM), to identify microbial communities and visually assess biofilm adhesion. Simultaneously, we concentrate on the X52 surface, utilizing impedance spectroscopy and potentiodynamic polarization to gather electrochemical responses under various conditions. In conjunction with the broader investigation, we propose a novel approach to mitigate biofilm-induced corrosion challenges. This involves environmentally friendly inhibitors derived from plants, offering a sustainable alternative to conventional chemical treatments. Our inquiry screens and selects inhibitors based on their efficacy in hindering biofilm formation and reducing corrosion rates on the X52 surface. This study contributes valuable insights into the interplay between electrochemical processes and biofilm attachment on the X52 surface. Furthermore, the outcomes of this research have broader implications for the oil and gas industry, where biofilm-related corrosion is a persistent concern. The exploration of eco-friendly inhibitors not only holds promise for corrosion control but also aligns with environmental considerations and sustainability goals. The comprehensive nature of this research aims to enhance our understanding of biofilm dynamics, provide effective strategies for corrosion mitigation, and contribute to sustainable practices in pipeline management within the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: bio-corrosion, biofilm, attachment, X52, metal/bacteria interface

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Authors: R. Whalley

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The heat transfer modelling for a diffusion process will be considered. Difficulties in computing the time-distance dynamics of the representation will be addressed. Incomplete and irrational Laplace function will be identified as the computational issue. Alternative approaches to the response evaluation process will be provided. An illustration application problem will be presented. Graphical results confirming the theoretical procedures employed will be provided.

Keywords: heat, transfer, diffusion, modelling, computation

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Authors: V. Bezverbny

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The actuality of the project deals with stable growing of deviant behavior’ statistics among Moscow citizens. During the recent years the socioeconomic health, wealth and life expectation of Moscow residents is regularly growing up, but the limits of crime and drug addiction have grown up seriously. Another serious Moscow problem has been economical stratification of population. The cost of identical residential areas differs at 2.5 times. The project is aimed at complex research and the development of methodology for main factors and reasons evaluation of deviant behavior growing in Moscow. The main project objective is finding out the links between the urban environment quality and dynamics of citizens’ deviant behavior in regional and municipal aspect using the statistical research methods and GIS modeling. The conducted research allowed: 1) to evaluate the dynamics of deviant behavior in Moscow different administrative districts; 2) to describe the reasons of crime increasing, drugs addiction, alcoholism, suicides tendencies among the city population; 3) to develop the city districts classification based on the level of the crime rate; 4) to create the statistical database containing the main indicators of Moscow population deviant behavior in 2010-2015 including information regarding crime level, alcoholism, drug addiction, suicides; 5) to present statistical indicators that characterize the dynamics of Moscow population deviant behavior in condition of expanding the city territory; 6) to analyze the main sociological theories and factors of deviant behavior for concretization the deviation types; 7) to consider the main theoretical statements of the city sociology devoted to the reasons for deviant behavior in megalopolis conditions. To explore the level of deviant behavior’ factors differentiation, the questionnaire was worked out, and sociological survey involved more than 1000 people from different districts of the city was conducted. Sociological survey allowed to study the socio-economical and psychological factors of deviant behavior. It also included the Moscow residents’ open-ended answers regarding the most actual problems in their districts and reasons of wish to leave their place. The results of sociological survey lead to the conclusion that the main factors of deviant behavior in Moscow are high level of social inequality, large number of illegal migrants and bums, nearness of large transport hubs and stations on the territory, ineffective work of police, alcohol availability and drug accessibility, low level of psychological comfort for Moscow citizens, large number of building projects.

Keywords: deviant behavior, megapolis, Moscow, urban environment, social stratification

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Authors: Can Huang, Xiaoliang Wang, Qingquan Liu

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Soil‒water coupling is an important process in landslide-generated impulse waves (LGIW) problems, accompanied by large deformation of soil, strong interface coupling and three-dimensional effect. A meshless particle method, smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has great advantages in dealing with complex interface and multiphase coupling problems. This study presents an improved soil‒water coupled model to simulate LGIW problems based on an open source code DualSPHysics (v4.0). Aiming to solve the low efficiency problem in modeling real large-scale LGIW problems, graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration technology is implemented into this code. An experimental example, subaerial landslide-generated water waves, is simulated to demonstrate the accuracy of this model. Then, the Huangtian LGIW, a real large-scale LGIW problem is modeled to reproduce the entire disaster chain, including landslide dynamics, fluid‒solid interaction, and surge wave generation. The convergence analysis shows that a particle distance of 5.0 m can provide a converged landslide deposit and surge wave for this example. Numerical simulation results are in good agreement with the limited field survey data. The application example of the Huangtian LGIW provides a typical reference for large-scale LGIW assessments, which can provide reliable information on landslide dynamics, interface coupling behavior, and surge wave characteristics.

Keywords: soil‒water coupling, landslide-generated impulse wave, large-scale, SPH

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Authors: Sajjad Esmaeili Aghdam

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Economics typically conceptualizes individual behavior as the consequence of external states, for example, budgets and prices (or respective beliefs) and choices. As the main goal, we focus on the influence of a range of Behavioral Economics factors on Strategies of Digital Marketing, evaluation of strategies and deformation of it into highly prospective marketing strategies. The different forms of behavioral prospects all lead to the succeeding two main results. First, the steadiness of the economic dynamics in a currency union be contingent fatefully on the level of economic incorporation. More economic incorporation leads to more steady economic dynamics. Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) is “all casual communications focused at consumers through Internet-based technology connected to the usage or characteristics of specific properties and services or their venders.” eWOM can take many methods, the most significant one being online analyses. Writing this paper, 72 articles have been gathered, focusing on the title and the aim of the article from research search engines like Google Scholar, Web of Science, and PubMed. Recent research in strategic management and marketing proposes that markets should not be viewed as a given and deterministic setting, exogenous to the firm. Instead, firms are progressively abstracted as dynamic inventors of market prospects. The use of new technologies touches all spheres of the modern lifestyle. Social and economic life becomes unbearable without fast, applicable, first-class and fitting material. Psychology and economics (together known as behavioral economics) are two protruding disciplines underlying many theories in marketing. The wide marketing works papers consumers’ none balanced behavior even though behavioral biases might not continuously be steadily called or officially labeled.

Keywords: behavioral economics, digital marketing, marketing strategy, high impact strategies

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Authors: Mónica Arroyo

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South America shows increasing decline in regional export values in the last years, after a strong growth of trade flows especially with China up to 2013. This change is due to the end of the commodity price boom, the slowing of the Chinese economy and the effects of the 2008 economic crisis. This paper examines the integration of regional economies in this context, particularly the situation in Brazil and Argentina. Based on transformations over the last two decades, the analysis is focused on the spatial circuits of production linked to foreign markets, contributing to the understanding of the different uses of territory and the within-country inequality. The South American regional exports, consisting basically of raw materials, are concentrated in a few companies. Large areas are intended for the production of agriculture and mining commodities, under the command of major economic groups, both domestic and foreign, relegating the local population to less productive places or, in most cases, forcing them to change their activity and to migrate to other regions in search of some source of income. On the other hand, the dynamics of these commodities’ spatial circuits of production print requirements in territories in terms of infrastructure and regulation. Capturing this movement requires understanding businesses and government’s role in territorial regulation, and consequently how regional systems are changing – for instance, economic specialisation, growing role of services, investment in roads, railways, ports, and airports. This paper aims to highlight topics for discussion on regional economic dynamics and their different degrees of internationalisation. The intention is to contribute to the debate about the relations between trade, globalization, and development.

Keywords: regional inequality, international trade, developing world, South America

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Authors: Przemyslaw Nogly, Tobias Weinert, Daniel James, Sergio Carbajo, Dmitry Ozerov, Antonia Furrer, Dardan Gashi, Veniamin Borin, Petr Skopintsev, Kathrin Jaeger, Karol Nass, Petra Bath, Robert Bosman, Jason Koglin, Matthew Seaberg, Thomas Lane, Demet Kekilli, Steffen Brünle, Tomoyuki Tanaka, Wenting Wu, Christopher Milne, Thomas A. White, Anton Barty, Uwe Weierstall, Valerie Panneels, Eriko Nango, So Iwata, Mark Hunter, Igor Schapiro, Gebhard Schertler, Richard Neutze, Jörg Standfuss

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Ultrafast isomerization of retinal is the primary step in a range of photoresponsive biological functions including vision in humans and ion-transport across bacterial membranes. We studied the sub-picosecond structural dynamics of retinal isomerization in the light-driven proton pump bacteriorhodopsin using an X-ray laser. Twenty snapshots with near-atomic spatial and temporal resolution in the femtosecond regime show how the excited all-trans retinal samples conformational states within the protein binding pocket prior to passing through a highly-twisted geometry and emerging in the 13-cis conformation. The aspartic acid residues and functional water molecules in proximity of the retinal Schiff base respond collectively to formation and decay of the initial excited state and retinal isomerization. These observations reveal how the protein scaffold guides this remarkably efficient photochemical reaction.

Keywords: bacteriorhodopsin, free-electron laser, retinal isomerization mechanism, time-resolved crystallography

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Authors: Wen-Jay Lee, Kuo-Ning Chiang

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The graphene binding with silicon substrate has apparently Schottky barriers property, which can be used in the application of solar cell and light source. Because graphene has only one atom layer, the atomistic structure of graphene binding with the silicon surface plays an important role to affect the properties of graphene. In this work, temperature effect on the morphology of graphene sheet attached on different crystal planes of silicon substrates are investigated by Molecular dynamics (MD) (LAMMPS, developed by Sandia National Laboratories). The results show that the covered graphene sheet would cause the structural deformation of the surface Si atoms of stubtrate. To achieve a stable state in the binding process, the surface Si atoms would adjust their position and fit the honeycomb structure of graphene after the graphene attaches to the Si surface. The height contour of graphene on different plane of silicon surfaces presents different pattern, leading the local residual stress at the interface. Due to the high density of dangling bond on the Si (111)7x7 surface, the surface of Si(111)7x7 is not matching with the graphene so well in contrast with Si(100)2x1and Si(111)2x1. Si(111)7x7 is found that only partial silicon adatoms are rearranged on surface after the attachment when the temperature is lower than 200K, As the temperature gradually increases, the deformation of surface structure becomes significant, as well as the residue stress. With increasing temperature till the 815K, the graphene sheet begins to destroy and mixes with the silicon atoms. For the Si(100)2x1 and Si(111)2x1, the silicon surface structure keep its structural arrangement with a higher temperature. With increasing temperature, the residual stress gradually decrease till a critical temperatures. When the temperature is higher than the critical temperature, the residual stress gradually increases and the structural deformation is found on the surface of the Si substrates.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, graphene, silicon, Schottky barriers, interface

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Authors: Jiahua Zhang, Qing Chang, Fengmei Yao

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Studying on the response of vegetation phenology to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is important for understanding and predicting future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics andthe adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset and climate data were used to analyze the dynamics of grassland phenology as well as their correlation with climatic factors in different eco-geographic regions and elevation units across the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that during 2003–2012, the start of the grassland greening season (SOS) appeared later while the end of the growing season (EOS) appeared earlier following the plateau’s precipitation and heat gradients from southeast to northwest. The multi-year mean value of SOS showed differences between various eco-geographic regions and was significantly impacted by average elevation and regional average precipitation during spring. Regional mean differences for EOS were mainly regulated by mean temperature during autumn. Changes in trends of SOS in the central and eastern eco-geographic regions were coupled to the mean temperature during spring, advancing by about 7d/°C. However, in the two southwestern eco-geographic regions, SOS was delayed significantly due to the impact of spring precipitation. The results also showed that the SOS occurred later with increasing elevation, as expected, with a delay rate of 0.66 d/100m. For 2003–2012, SOS showed an advancing trend in low-elevation areas, but a delayed trend in high-elevation areas, while EOS was delayed in low-elevation areas, but advanced in high-elevation areas. Grassland SOS and EOS changes may be influenced by a variety of other environmental factors in each eco-geographic region.

Keywords: grassland, phenology, MODIS, eco-geographic regions, elevation, climatic factors, Tibetan Plateau

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Authors: Jae-Yeong Choi, Gyu-Mok Jeon, Jong-Chun Park, Yong-Jin Cho, Seok-Tae Yoon

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When air flow is injected into water, bubbles are formed in various types inside the water pool along with the air flow rate. The bubbles are floated in equilibrium with forces such as buoyancy, surface tension and shear force. Single bubble generated at low flow rate maintains shape, but bubbles with high flow rate break up to make mixing and turbulence. In addition to this phenomenon, as the hot air bubbles are injected into the water, heat affects the interface of phases. Therefore, the main scope of the present work reveals how to proceed heat transfer between water and hot air bubbles injected into water. In the present study, a series of CFD simulation for the heat transfer of hot bubbles injected through a nozzle near the bottom in a cylindrical water column are performed using a commercial CFD software, STAR-CCM+. The governing equations for incompressible and viscous flow are the continuous and the RaNS (Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes) equations and discretized by the FVM (Finite Volume Method) manner. For solving multi-phase flow, the Eulerian multiphase model is employed and the interface is defined by VOF (Volume-of-Fluid) technique. As a turbulence model, the SST k-w model considering the buoyancy effects is introduced. For spatial differencing the 3th-order MUSCL scheme is adopted and the 2nd-order implicit scheme for time integration. As the results, the dynamic behavior of the rising hot bubbles with the flow rate injected and regarding heat transfer mechanism are discussed based on the simulation results.

Keywords: heat transfer, hot bubble injection, eulerian multiphase model, flow rate, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Vagolu S. Krishna, Shan Zheng, Estharla M. Rekha, Luke W. Guddat, Dharmarajan Sriram

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Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to human health. This due to the fact that current drug treatments are less than optimal as well as the rising occurrence of multi drug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant strains of the etiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mt). Given the wide-spread significance of this disease, we have undertaken a design and evaluation program to discover new anti-TB drug leads. Here, our attention is focused on ketol-acid reductoisomerase (KARI), the second enzyme in the branched-chain amino acid biosynthesis pathway. Importantly, this enzyme is present in bacteria but not in humans, making it an attractive proposition for drug discovery. In the present work, we used high-throughput virtual screening to identify seventeen potential inhibitors of KARI using the Birla Institute of Technology and Science in-house database. Compounds were selected based on high docking scores, which were assigned as the result of favourable interactions between the compound and the active site of KARI. The Ki values for two leads, compounds 14 and 16 are 3.71 and 3.06 µM, respectively for Mt KARI. To assess the mode of binding, 100 ns molecular dynamics simulations for these two compounds in association with Mt KARI were performed and showed that the complex was stable with an average RMSD of less than 2.5 Å for all atoms. Compound 16 showed an MIC of 2.06 ± 0.91 µM and a 1.9 fold logarithmic reduction in the growth of Mt in an infected macrophage model. The two compounds exhibited low toxicity against murine macrophage RAW 264.7 cell lines. Thus, both compounds are promising candidates for development as an anti-TB drug leads.

Keywords: ketol-acid reductoisomerase, macrophage, molecular docking and dynamics, tuberculosis

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Authors: Driss Cherqaoui, Nouhaila Ait Lahcen, Ismail Hdoufane, Mehdi Oubahmane, Wissal Liman, Christelle Delaite, Mohammed M. Alanazi

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The Ebola virus is a highly contagious and deadly pathogen that causes Ebola virus disease. The Ebola virus glycoprotein (EBOV-GP) is a key factor in viral entry into host cells, making it a critical target for therapeutic intervention. Using a combination of computational approaches, this study focuses on the identification of natural compounds that could serve as potent inhibitors of EBOV-GP. The 3D structure of EBOV-GP was selected, with missing residues modeled, and this structure was minimized and equilibrated. Two large natural compound databases, COCONUT and NPASS, were chosen and filtered based on toxicity risks and Lipinski’s Rule of Five to ensure drug-likeness. Following this, a pharmacophore model, built from 22 reported active inhibitors, was employed to refine the selection of compounds with a focus on structural relevance to known Ebola inhibitors. The filtered compounds were subjected to virtual screening via molecular docking, which identified ten promising candidates (five from each database) with strong binding affinities to EBOV-GP. These compounds were then validated through molecular dynamics simulations to evaluate their binding stability and interactions with the target. The top three compounds from each database were further analyzed using ADMET profiling, confirming their favorable pharmacokinetic properties, stability, and safety. These results suggest that the selected compounds have the potential to inhibit EBOV-GP, offering new avenues for antiviral drug development against the Ebola virus.

Keywords: EBOV-GP, Ebola virus glycoprotein, high-throughput drug screening, molecular docking, molecular dynamics, natural compounds, pharmacophore modeling, virtual screening

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Authors: Joulié Aurélien, Isabelle Desjardins, Elsa Jourdain, Sophie Pradier, Dufour Philippe, Elodie Rousset, Agnès Leblond

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Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. It may infect a broad range of host species, including horses. Although the role of horses in C. burnetii infections remains unknown, their use as sentinel species may be interesting to better assess the human risk exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess the C. burnetii horse exposition in a French endemic area by describing the antibody dynamics detected in serum; investigating the pathogen circulation in the horse environment, and exploring potential links with unexplained syndromes. Blood samples were collected in 2015 and 2016 on 338 and 294 horses, respectively and analyzed by ELISA. Ticks collected on horses were identified, and C. burnetii DNA detection was performed by qPCR targeting the IS1111 gene. Blood sample analyses revealed a significant increase of the seroprevalence in horses between both years, from 11% [7.67; 14.43] to 25% [20.06; 29.94]. On 36 seropositive horses in 2015 and 73 in 2016, 5 and four respectively showed clinical signs compatible with a C. burnetii infection (i.e., chronic fever or respiratory disorders, unfitness and unexplained weight loss). DNA was detected in almost 40% of ticks (n=59/148 in 2015 and n=103/305 in 2016) and exceptionally in dust samples (n=2/46 in 2015 and n=1/14 in 2016) every year. The C. burnetti detection in both the serum and the environment of horses confirm their exposure to the bacterium. Therefore, consideration should be given to target a relevant sentinel species to better assess the Q fever surveillance depending on the epidemiological context.

Keywords: ELISA, Q fever, qPCR, syndromic surveillance

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Authors: Aneesh Joshi, Sagil James

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Cold Spray (CS) process is deposition of solid particles over a substrate above a certain critical impact velocity. Unlike thermal spray processes, CS process does not melt the particles thus retaining their original physical and chemical properties. These characteristics make CS process ideal for various engineering applications involving metals, polymers, ceramics and composites. The bonding mechanism involved in CS process is extremely complex considering the dynamic nature of the process. Though CS process offers great promise for several engineering applications, the realization of its full potential is limited by the lack of understanding of the complex mechanisms involved in this process and the effect of critical process parameters on the deposition efficiency. The goal of this research is to understand the complex nanoscale mechanisms involved in CS process. The study uses Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation technique to understand the material deposition phenomenon during the CS process. Impact of a single crystalline copper nanoparticle on copper substrate is modelled under varying process conditions. The quantitative results of the impacts at different velocities, impact angle and size of the particles are evaluated using flattening ratio, von Mises stress distribution and local shear strain. The study finds that the flattening ratio and hence the quality of deposition was highest for an impact velocity of 700 m/s, particle size of 20 Å and an impact angle of 90°. The stress and strain analysis revealed regions of shear instabilities in the periphery of impact and also revealed plastic deformation of the particles after the impact. The results of this study can be used to augment our existing knowledge in the field of CS processes.

Keywords: cold spray process, molecular dynamics simulation, nanoparticles, particle impact

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Authors: Qian Yi Ooi

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At present, airfoil parameters are still designed and optimized according to the scale of conventional aircraft, and there are still some slight deviations in terms of scale differences. However, insufficient parameters or poor surface mesh quality is likely to occur if these small deviations are embedded in a future civil aircraft with a size that is quite different from conventional aircraft, such as a blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft with future potential, resulting in large deviations in geometric similarity in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. To avoid this situation, the study on the CFD calculation on the geometric similarity of airfoil parameters and the quality of the surface mesh is conducted to obtain the ability of different parameterization methods applied on different airfoil scales. The research objects are three airfoil scales, including the wing root and wingtip of conventional civil aircraft and the wing root of the giant hybrid wing, used by three parameterization methods to compare the calculation differences between different sizes of airfoils. In this study, the constants including NACA 0012, a Reynolds number of 10 million, an angle of attack of zero, a C-grid for meshing, and the k-epsilon (k-ε) turbulence model are used. The experimental variables include three airfoil parameterization methods: point cloud method, B-spline curve method, and class function/shape function transformation (CST) method. The airfoil dimensions are set to 3.98 meters, 17.67 meters, and 48 meters, respectively. In addition, this study also uses different numbers of edge meshing and the same bias factor in the CFD simulation. Studies have shown that with the change of airfoil scales, different parameterization methods, the number of control points, and the meshing number of divisions should be used to improve the accuracy of the aerodynamic performance of the wing. When the airfoil ratio increases, the most basic point cloud parameterization method will require more and larger data to support the accuracy of the airfoil’s aerodynamic performance, which will face the severe test of insufficient computer capacity. On the other hand, when using the B-spline curve method, average number of control points and meshing number of divisions should be set appropriately to obtain higher accuracy; however, the quantitative balance cannot be directly defined, but the decisions should be made repeatedly by adding and subtracting. Lastly, when using the CST method, it is found that limited control points are enough to accurately parameterize the larger-sized wing; a higher degree of accuracy and stability can be obtained by using a lower-performance computer.

Keywords: airfoil, computational fluid dynamics, geometric similarity, surface mesh quality

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Authors: Rewati Raman, Uttam K. Roy

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One of the main adversaries of city planning in present times is the ever-expanding problem of urbanization and the antagonistic issues accompanying it. The prevalent challenges in urbanization such as population growth, urban sprawl, poverty, inequality, pollution, congestion, etc. call for reforms in the urban fabric as well as in planning theory and practice. One of the various paradigms of city planning, land use planning, has been the major instruments for spatial planning of cities and regions in India. Zoning regulation based land use planning in the form of land use and development control plans (LUDCP) and development control regulations (DCR) have been considered mainstream guiding principles in land use planning for decades. In spite of many advantages of such zoning based regulations, over a period of time, it has been critiqued by scholars for its own limitations of isolation and lack of vitality, inconvenience in business in terms of proximity to residence and low operating cost, unsuitable environment for small investments, higher travel distance for facilities, amenities and thereby higher expenditure, safety issues etc. Mixed land use has been advocated as a tool to avoid such limitations in city planning by researchers. In addition, mixed land use can offer many advantages like housing variety and density, the creation of an economic blend of compatible land use, compact development, stronger neighborhood character, walkability, and generation of jobs, etc. Alternatively, the mixed land use beyond a suitable balance of use can also bring disadvantages like traffic congestion, encroachments, very high-density housing leading to a slum like condition, parking spill out, non-residential uses operating on residential premises paying less tax, chaos hampering residential privacy, pressure on existing infrastructure facilities, etc. This research aims at studying and outlining the various challenges and potentials of mixed land use zoning, through modeling tools, as a competent instrument for city planning in lieu of the present urban scenario. The methodology of research adopted in this paper involves the study of a mixed land use neighborhood in India, identification of indicators and parameters related to its extent and spatial pattern and the subsequent use of system dynamics as a modeling tool for simulation. The findings from this analysis helped in identifying the various advantages and challenges associated with the dynamic nature of a mixed use urban settlement. The results also confirmed the hypothesis that mixed use neighborhoods are catalysts for employment generation, socioeconomic gains while improving vibrancy, health, safety, and security. It is also seen that certain challenges related to chaos, lack of privacy and pollution prevail in mixed use neighborhoods, which can be mitigated by varying the percentage of mixing as per need, ensuring compatibility of adjoining use, institutional interventions in the form of policies, neighborhood micro-climatic interventions, etc. Therefore this paper gives a consolidated and holistic framework and quantified outcome pertaining to the extent and spatial pattern of mixed land use that should be adopted to ensure sustainable urban planning.

Keywords: mixed land use, sustainable development, system dynamics analysis, urban dynamics modelling

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Authors: Guanyu Jiang, Donghai Xu, Huanteng Liu

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After the Fukushima-Daiichi accident, the development of accident tolerant fuel cladding materials to improve reactor safety has become a hot topic in the field of nuclear industry. ZrO₂ has a satisfactory neutron economy and can guarantee the fission chain reaction process, which enables it to be a promising coating for zirconium alloy cladding. Maintaining a good corrosion resistance in primary coolant loop during normal operations of Pressurized Water Reactors is a prerequisite for ZrO₂ as a protective coating on zirconium alloy cladding. Research on the corrosion performance of ZrO₂ coating in nuclear water chemistry is relatively scarce, and existing reports failed to provide an in-depth explanation for the failure causes of ZrO₂ coating. Herein, a detailed corrosion process of ZrO₂ coating in lithiated water at 360 °C and 18.5 MPa was proposed based on experimental research and molecular dynamics simulation. Lithiated water with different LiOH solutions in the present work was deaerated and had a dissolved oxygen concentration of < 10 ppb. The concentration of Li (as LiOH) was determined to be 2.3 ppm, 70 ppm, and 500 ppm, respectively. Corrosion tests were conducted in a static autoclave. Modeling and corresponding calculations were operated on Materials Studio software. The calculation of adsorption energy and dynamics parameters were undertaken by the Energy task and Dynamics task of the Forcite module, respectively. The protective effect and failure mechanism of ZrO₂ coating on Zry-4 under varied LiOH concentrations was further revealed by comparison with the coating corrosion performance in pure water (namely 0 ppm Li). ZrO₂ coating provided a favorable corrosion protection with the occurrence of localized corrosion at low LiOH concentrations. Factors influencing corrosion resistance mainly include pitting corrosion extension, enhanced Li+ permeation, short-circuit diffusion of O²⁻ and ZrO₂ phase transformation. In highly-concentrated LiOH solutions, intergranular corrosion, internal oxidation, and perforation resulted in coating failure. Zr ions were released to coating surface to form flocculent ZrO₂ and ZrO₂ clusters due to the strong diffusion and dissolution tendency of α-Zr in the Zry-4 substrate. Considering that primary water of Pressurized Water Reactors usually includes 2.3 ppm Li, the stability of ZrO₂ make itself a candidate fuel cladding coating material. Under unfavorable conditions with high Li concentrations, more boric acid should be added to alleviate caustic corrosion of ZrO₂ coating once it is used. This work can provide some references to understand the service behavior of nuclear coatings under variable water chemistry conditions and promote the in-pile application of ZrO₂ coating.

Keywords: ZrO₂ coating, Zry-4, corrosion behavior, failure mechanism, LiOH concentration

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Authors: Jorge Duarte de Sá

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The project presented in this investigation is part of the multidisciplinary field of Architecture and explores an experience in media architecture, integrated in Arts, Science and Technology. The objective of this work is to create a visual experience comprehending Architecture, Media and Art. It is intended to specifically explore the sacred spaces that are losing social, cultural or religious dynamics and insert new Media technologies to create a new generate momentum, testing tools, techniques and methods of implementation. Given an architectural project methodology, it seems essential that 'the location' should be the starting point for the development of this technological apparatus: the church of Santa Clara in Santarém, Portugal emerged as an experimental space for apparatus, presenting itself as both temple and museum. We also aim to address the concept of rehabilitation through media technologies, directed at interventions that may have an impact on energizing spaces. The idea is emphasized on the rehabilitation of spaces that, one way or another, may gain new dynamics after a media intervention. Thus, we intend to affect the play with a sensitive and spiritual character which endemically, sacred spaces have, by exploring a sensitive aspect of the subject and drawing up new ideas for meditation and spiritual reflection. The work is designed primarily as a visual experience that encompasses the space, the object and the subject. It is a media project supported by a dual structure with two transparent screens operating in a holographic screen which will be projecting two images that complement the translucent overlay film, thus making the merger of two projections. The digitally created content reacts to the presence of observers through infrared cameras, placed strategically. The object revives the memory of the altarpiece as an architectural surface, promoting the expansion of messages through the media technologies.

Keywords: architecture, media, sacred, technology

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Authors: Kodo Sektani, Apostolos Tsouvalas, Andrei Metrikine

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The reassessment of existing movable bridges in The Netherlands has created the need for acceptance/rejection criteria to assess whether the machineries are meet certain design demands. However, the existing design code defines a different limit state design, meant for new machineries which is based on a simple linear spring-mass model. Observations show that existing bridges do not confirm the model predictions. In fact, movable bridges are nonlinear systems consisting of mechanical components, such as, gears, electric motors and brakes. Next to that, each movable bridge is characterized by a unique set of parameters. However, in the existing code various variables that describe the physical characteristics of the bridge are neglected or replaced by partial factors. For instance, the damping ratio ζ, which is different for drawbridges compared to bascule bridges, is taken as a constant for all bridge types. In this paper, a model is developed that overcomes some of the limitations of existing modelling approaches to capture the dynamics of the powertrain of a class of bridge machineries First, a semidefinite dynamic model is proposed, which accounts for stiffness, damping, and some additional variables of the physical system, which are neglected by the code, such as nonlinear braking torques. The model gives an upper bound of the peak forces/torques occurring in the powertrain during emergency braking. Second, a discrete nonlinear dynamic model is discussed, with realistic motor torque characteristics during normal operation. This model succeeds to accurately predict the full time history of the occurred stress state of the opening and closing cycle for fatigue purposes.

Keywords: Dynamics of movable bridges, Bridge machinery, Powertrains, Torque measurements

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Authors: P. Haldar, P. Ghosh, S. Ghoshdastidar, K. Kargupta

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In polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) is consisting of two platinum coated carbon electrodes, sandwiched with one proton conducting phosphoric acid doped polymeric membrane. Due to low mechanical stability, flooding and fuel cell crossover, application of phosphoric acid in polymeric membrane is very critical. Phosphorous and silica based 3D inorganic gel gains the attention in the field of supercapacitors, fuel cells and metal hydrate batteries due to its thermally stable highly proton conductive behavior. Also as a large amount of water molecule and phosphoric acid can easily get trapped in Si-O-Si network cavities, it causes a prevention in the leaching out. In this study, we have performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and first principle calculations to understand the structural, electronics and electrochemical and morphological behavior of this inorganic gel at various P to Si ratios. We have used dipole-dipole interactions, H bonding, and van der Waals forces to study the main interactions between the molecules. A 'structure property-performance' mapping is initiated to determine optimum P to Si ratio for best proton conductivity. We have performed the MD simulations at various temperature to understand the temperature dependency on proton conductivity. The observed results will propose a model which fits well with experimental data and other literature values. We have also studied the mechanism behind proton conductivity. And finally we have proposed a structure for the gel paste with optimum P to Si ratio.

Keywords: first principle calculation, molecular dynamics simulation, phosphorous and silica based 3D inorganic gel, polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells, proton conductivity

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Authors: Bharti Singh, Shri K. Singh

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Child malnutrition is a multifaceted issue that transcends geographical boundaries. Malnutrition not only stunts physical growth but also leads to a spectrum of morbidities and child mortality. It is one of the leading causes of death (~50 %) among children under age five. Despite economic progress and advancements in healthcare, child malnutrition remains a formidable challenge for India. The objective is to investigate the impact of women's empowerment on child nutrition outcomes in India from 2006 to 2021. A composite index of women's empowerment was constructed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), a rigorous technique that validates the measurement model by assessing how well-observed variables represent latent constructs. This approach ensures the reliability and validity of the empowerment index. Secondly, kernel density plots were utilised to visualise the distribution of key nutritional indicators, such as stunting, wasting, and overweight. These plots offer insights into the shape and spread of data distributions, aiding in understanding the prevalence and severity of malnutrition. Thirdly, linear polynomial graphs were employed to analyse how nutritional parameters evolved with the child's age. This technique enables the visualisation of trends and patterns over time, allowing for a deeper understanding of nutritional dynamics during different stages of childhood. Lastly, multilevel analysis was conducted to identify vulnerable levels, including State-level, PSU-level, and household-level factors impacting undernutrition. This approach accounts for hierarchical data structures and allows for the examination of factors at multiple levels, providing a comprehensive understanding of the determinants of child malnutrition. Overall, the utilisation of these statistical methodologies enhances the transparency and replicability of the study by providing clear and robust analytical frameworks for data analysis and interpretation. Our study reveals that NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 exhibit an equal density of severely stunted cases. NFHS-5 indicates a limited decline in wasting among children aged five, while the density of severely wasted children remains consistent across NFHS-3, 4, and 5. In 2019-21, women with higher empowerment had a lower risk of their children being undernourished (Regression coefficient= -0.10***; Confidence Interval [-0.18, -0.04]). Gender dynamics also play a significant role, with male children exhibiting a higher susceptibility to undernourishment. Multilevel analysis suggests household-level vulnerability (intra-class correlation=0.21), highlighting the need to address child undernutrition at the household level.

Keywords: child nutrition, India, NFHS, women’s empowerment

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Authors: S.I.Mukhin, S. Seidov, A. Mukherjee

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The Dicke model is a key tool for the description of correlated states of quantum atomic systems, excited by resonant photon absorption and subsequently emitting spontaneous coherent radiation in the superradiant state. The Dicke Hamiltonian (DH) is successfully used for the description of the dynamics of the Josephson Junction (JJ) array in a resonant cavity under applied current. In this work, we have investigated a generalized model, which is described by DH with a frustrating interaction term. This frustrating interaction term is explicitly the infinite coordinated interaction between all the spin half in the system. In this work, we consider an array of N superconducting islands, each divided into two sub-islands by a Josephson Junction, taken in a charged qubit / Cooper Pair Box (CPB) condition. The array is placed inside the resonant cavity. One important aspect of the problem lies in the dynamical nature of the physical observables involved in the system, such as condensed electric field and dipole moment. It is important to understand how these quantities behave with time to define the quantum phase of the system. The Dicke model without frustrating term is solved to find the dynamical solutions of the physical observables in analytic form. We have used Heisenberg’s dynamical equations for the operators and on applying newly developed Rotating Holstein Primakoff (HP) transformation and DH we have arrived at the four coupled nonlinear dynamical differential equations for the momentum and spin component operators. It is possible to solve the system analytically using two-time scales. The analytical solutions are expressed in terms of Jacobi's elliptic functions for the metastable ‘bound luminosity’ dynamic state with the periodic coherent beating of the dipoles that connect the two double degenerate dipolar ordered phases discovered previously. In this work, we have proceeded the analysis with the extended DH with a frustrating interaction term. Inclusion of the frustrating term involves complexity in the system of differential equations and it gets difficult to solve analytically. We have solved semi-classical dynamic equations using the perturbation technique for small values of Josephson energy EJ. Because the Hamiltonian contains parity symmetry, thus phase transition can be found if this symmetry is broken. Introducing spontaneous symmetry breaking term in the DH, we have derived the solutions which show the occurrence of finite condensate, showing quantum phase transition. Our obtained result matches with the existing results in this scientific field.

Keywords: Dicke Model, nonlinear dynamics, perturbation theory, superconductivity

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Authors: Azadeh Jafari, Robert G. Owens

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In this study, a geometrical multiscale approach which means coupling together the 2-D Navier-Stokes equations, constitutive equations and 0-D lumped parameter models is investigated. A multiscale approach, suggest a natural way of coupling detailed local models (in the flow domain) with coarser models able to describe the dynamics over a large part or even the whole cardiovascular system at acceptable computational cost. In this study we introduce a new velocity correction scheme to decouple the velocity computation from the pressure one. To evaluate the capability of our new scheme, a comparison between the results obtained with Neumann outflow boundary conditions on the velocity and Dirichlet outflow boundary conditions on the pressure and those obtained using coupling with the lumped parameter model has been performed. Comprehensive studies have been done based on the sensitivity of numerical scheme to the initial conditions, elasticity and number of spectral modes. Improvement of the computational algorithm with stable convergence has been demonstrated for at least moderate Weissenberg number. We comment on mathematical properties of the reduced model, its limitations in yielding realistic and accurate numerical simulations, and its contribution to a better understanding of microvascular blood flow. We discuss the sophistication and reliability of multiscale models for computing correct boundary conditions at the outflow boundaries of a section of the cardiovascular system of interest. In this respect the geometrical multiscale approach can be regarded as a new method for solving a class of biofluids problems, whose application goes significantly beyond the one addressed in this work.

Keywords: geometrical multiscale models, haemorheology model, coupled 2-D navier-stokes 0-D lumped parameter modeling, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: I. M. Salama, R. N. Miftahof

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A functional element of the myenteric nervous plexus is a morphologically distinct ganglion. Composed of sensory, inter- and motor neurons and arranged via synapses in neuronal circuits, their task is to decipher and integrate spike coded information within the plexus into regulatory output signals. The stability of signal processing in response to a wide range of internal/external perturbations depends on the plasticity of individual neurons. Any aberrations in this inherent property may lead to instability with the development of a dynamics chaos and can be manifested as pathological conditions, such as intestinal dysrhythmia, irritable bowel syndrome. The aim of this study is to investigate patterns of signal transduction within a two-neuronal chain - a ganglion - under normal physiological and structurally altered states. The ganglion contains the primary sensory (AH-type) and motor (S-type) neurons linked through a cholinergic dendro somatic synapse. The neurons have distinguished electrophysiological characteristics including levels of the resting and threshold membrane potentials and spiking activity. These are results of ionic channel dynamics namely: Na+, K+, Ca++- activated K+, Ca++ and Cl-. Mechanical stretches of various intensities and frequencies are applied at the receptive field of the AH-neuron generate a cascade of electrochemical events along the chain. At low frequencies, ν < 0.3 Hz, neurons demonstrate strong connectivity and coherent firing. The AH-neuron shows phasic bursting with spike frequency adaptation while the S-neuron responds with tonic bursts. At high frequency, ν > 0.5 Hz, the pattern of electrical activity changes to rebound and mixed mode bursting, respectively, indicating ganglionic loss of plasticity and adaptability. A simultaneous increase in neuronal conductivity for Na+, K+ and Ca++ ions results in tonic mixed spiking of the sensory neuron and class 2 excitability of the motor neuron. Although the signal transduction along the chain remains stable the synchrony in firing pattern is not maintained and the number of discharges of the S-type neuron is significantly reduced. A concomitant increase in Ca++- activated K+ and a decrease in K+ in conductivities re-establishes weak connectivity between the two neurons and converts their firing pattern to a bistable mode. It is thus demonstrated that neuronal plasticity and adaptability have a stabilizing effect on the dynamics of signal processing in the ganglion. Functional modulations of neuronal ion channel permeability, achieved in vivo and in vitro pharmacologically, can improve connectivity between neurons. These findings are consistent with experimental electrophysiological recordings from myenteric ganglia in intestinal dysrhythmia and suggest possible pathophysiological mechanisms.

Keywords: neuronal chain, signal transduction, plasticity, stability

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Authors: Pegah Ebrahimi, Farshad Oveissi, Iman Manavi-Tehrani, Sina Naficy, David F. Fletcher, Fariba Dehghani, David S. Winlaw

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Despite advances in modern surgery, congenital heart disease remains a medical challenge and a major cause of infant mortality. Cardiovascular prostheses are routinely used in surgical procedures to address congenital malformations, for example establishing a pathway from the right ventricle to the pulmonary arteries in pulmonary valvar atresia. Current off-the-shelf options including human and adult products have limited biocompatibility and durability, and their fixed size necessitates multiple subsequent operations to upsize the conduit to match with patients’ growth over their lifetime. Non-physiological blood flow is another major problem, reducing the longevity of these prostheses. These limitations call for better designs that take into account the hemodynamical and anatomical characteristics of different patients. We have integrated tissue engineering techniques with modern medical imaging and image processing tools along with mathematical modeling to optimize the design of cardiovascular grafts in a patient-specific manner. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis is done according to models constructed from each individual patient’s data. This allows for improved geometrical design and achieving better hemodynamic performance. Tissue engineering strives to provide a material that grows with the patient and mimic the durability and elasticity of the native tissue. Simulations also give insight on the performance of the tissues produced in our lab and reduce the need for costly and time-consuming methods of evaluation of the grafts. We are also developing a methodology for the fabrication of the optimized designs.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, cardiovascular grafts, design optimization, tissue engineering

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Authors: Suprehatin Suprehatin

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Improving the participation of smallholder farmers in horticultural value chains to benefit from the rapidly growing demand for high-value agricultural products is one strategy for raising farm income. However, smallholder farmer participation in Indonesian horticultural value chains is under-researched. To address this knowledge gap, this study aims to describe the current status of horticultural crop adoption in Indonesia and analyze the motivations and dynamics of smallholder farmer participation in horticultural value chains: why some small farmers join these new and potentially profitable chains and continue their participation. This study also examines the characteristics of farmers who adopted and those who did not adopt a new horticultural crop with respect to the household (farmer), farm and institutional characteristics. The analysis was conducted using unique data from a 2013 survey of 960 Indonesian farmers on Java Island that produce a variety of agricultural products. Basic statistical analysis showed relatively low adoption rates (10%) of new horticultural crops amongst 960 selected Indonesian farmers with different decisions made in terms of number and timing of new horticultural crop adoption. Adopters were motivated mainly by higher profit, higher yield, and more cash opportunities. The result also showed that current low rates of horticultural crop adoption are associated with a variety of factors, such as lower levels of education among farmers, resource constraints, lack of information on horticultural crop production and low participation in farmer groups. These findings will be helpful for policymakers when designing policies and programs to promote greater participation of Indonesian smallholder farmers in horticultural value chains. In other words, a revitalisation of agricultural policy beyond staple food is important to seize potential benefits from the ongoing agricultural food market transformation.

Keywords: farmer adoption, high value, horticultural crops, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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