Search results for: transition probability function

Authors: Hussein M. Etmimi, Peter E. Mallon

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Electrospinning uses an electrical charge to draw very fine fibers (typically on the micro or nano scale) from a liquid or molten precursor. Over the years, this method has become a widely used and a successful technique to process polymer materials and their composites into nanofibers. The main focus of this work is to study the electrospinning of multi-phase amphiphilic copolymers and their nanocomposites, which contain graphene as the nanofiller material. In such amphiphilic materials, the constituents segments are incompatible and thus the solid state morphology will be determined by the composition of the various constituents as well as the method of preparation. In this study, amphiphilic block copolymers of poly(dimethyl siloxane) and poly(methyl methacrylate) (PDMS-b-PMMA) with well-defined structures were synthesized and the solution electrospinning of these materials and their properties were investigated. Atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) was used to obtain the controlled block copolymers with relatively high molar masses and narrow dispersity. First, PDMS macroinitiators with different chain length of 1000, 5000 and 10000 g/mol were synthesized by the reaction of monocarbinol terminated PDMS with α-bromoisobutyryl bromide initiator. The obtained macroinitiators were used for the polymerization of methyl methacrylate monomer to obtain the desired block copolymers using the ATRP process. Graphene oxide (GO) of different loading was then added to the copolymer solution and the resultant nanocomposites were successfully electrospun into nanofibers. The electrospinning was achieved using dimethylformamide/chloroform mixture (60:40 vl%) as electrospinning solution medium. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed the successful formation of the electrospun fibers with dimensions in the nanometer range. X-ray diffraction indicated that the GO nanosheets were of an exfoliated structure, irrespective of the filler loading. Thermogravimetric analysis also showed that the thermal stability of the nanofibers was improved in the presence of GO, which was not a function of the filler loading. Differential scanning calorimetry also showed that the mechanical properties (measured as glass transition temperature) of the nanofibers was improved significantly in the presence of GO, which was a function of the filler loading.

Keywords: elctrospinning, graphene oxide, nanofibers, polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Elnaz Entezar, Reza Ezzati

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In recent decades, trade flows, capital, workforce, technology and information have increased between international borders and the globalization has turned to an undeniable process in international economics. Meanwhile, despite the positive aspects of globalization, the critics of globalization opine that the risks and costs of globalization for developing vulnerable economies and the world's impoverished people are high and significant. In this regard, this study by using the data of KOF Economic Institute and the World Bank for 113 different countries during the period 2002-2012, by taking advantage of panel smooth transition regression, and by taking the gross domestic product as transmission variables discuss the nonlinear relationship between research variables. The results have revealed that globalization in low regime (countries with low GDP) has negative impact whereas in high regime (countries with high GDP) has a positive impact. In spite of the fact that in the early stages of growth, control of corruption has a positive impact on economic growth, after a threshold has a negative impact on economic growth.

Keywords: globalization, corruption, panel smooth transition model, economic growth, threshold, economic convergence

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Authors: Jia-Ming Kok, Javaan Chahl

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An optimisation method using both global and local optimisation is implemented to determine the flapping profile which will produce the most lift for an experimental wing-actuation system. The optimisation method is tested using a numerical quasi-steady analysis. Results of an optimised flapping profile show a 20% increase in lift generated as compared to flapping profiles obtained by high speed cinematography of a Sympetrum frequens dragonfly. Initial optimisation procedures showed 3166 objective function evaluations. The global optimisation parameters - initial sample size and stage one sample size, were altered to reduce the number of function evaluations. Altering the stage one sample size had no significant effect. It was found that reducing the initial sample size to 400 would allow a reduction in computational effort to approximately 1500 function evaluations without compromising the global solvers ability to locate potential minima. To further reduce the optimisation effort required, we increase the local solver’s convergence tolerance criterion. An increase in the tolerance from 0.02N to 0.05N decreased the number of function evaluations by another 20%. However, this potentially reduces the maximum obtainable lift by up to 0.025N.

Keywords: flapping wing, optimisation, quasi-steady model, dragonfly

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Authors: Samy Madbouly

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The relaxation behavior of biorenewable castor oil-based polyurethane-lignin thin films synthesized in homogenous waterborne dispersions was investigated as a function of concentration at different temperatures and frequencies using broadband dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (BDRS). The molecular dynamics of the glass relaxation process and the local relaxation process of the PU-LS thin films were studied over a wide range of temperatures (-70 to 30 ℃) and frequencies (5 × 10−2 to 0.5 × 107 Hz) for different lignin concentration. Four relaxation processes have been observed namely; ?-, β-, γ-relaxations and ionic conductivity for pure castor oil-based PU and castor oil-lignin-based PU thin films at different temperatures and frequencies ranges. The Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann equation was found to be well described the temperature dependence of the characteristic relaxation times of the ?-relaxation process. However, on the other hand, the molecular dynamics of both β- and γ-relaxation processes were given by the Arrhenius equation. The incorporation of lignin into the castor oil-based PU significantly increased the glass transition temperature and primitivity of the thin films. In addition, the broadness, intensity, and molecular dynamics of the only observed ?-relaxation process were found to be strongly dependent on lignin concentration.

Keywords: castor oil, lignin, polyurethane, dielectric, dispersions

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Authors: Abdelghani Boucheham, Djoudi Bouhafs, Nabil Khelifati, Baya Palahouane

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The main aim of this study is to investigate the low temperature internal gettering of manganese and chromium transition metals content in p-type multicrystalline silicon grown by Heat Exchanger Method (HEM). The minority carrier lifetime variation, the transition metal elements behavior, the sheet resistivity and the interstitial oxygen concentration after different temperatures annealing under N2 ambient were investigated using quasi-steady state photoconductance technique (QSSPC), secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS), four-probe measurement and Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR), respectively. The obtained results indicate in the temperature range of 300°C to 700°C that the effective lifetime increases and reaches its maximum values of 28 μs at 500 °C and decreasing to 6 μs at 700 °C. This amelioration is due probably to metallic impurities internal gettering in the extended defects and in the oxygen precipitates as observed on SIMS profiles and the FTIR spectra. From 300 °C to 500 °C the sheet resistivity values rest unchanged at 30 Ohm/sq and rises significantly to reach 45 Ohm/sq for T> 500 °C.

Keywords: mc-Si, low temperature annealing, internal gettering, minority carrier lifetime, interstitial oxygen, resistivity

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Authors: Redrisse Djoumessi Fobasso, Baidyanath Sahu, Andre M. Strydom

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The R₂TX₃ (R = rare-earth, T = transition, and X = s and p block element) series of compounds are interesting owing to their fascinating structural and magnetic properties. In this present work, we have studied the magnetic and physical properties of the new Gd₂AgSi₃ polycrystalline compound. The sample was synthesized by the arc-melting method and confirmed to crystallize in the tetragonal α-ThSi₂-type crystal structure with space group I4/amd. Dc– and ac–magnetic susceptibility, specific heat, electrical resistivity, and magnetoresistance measurements were performed on the new compound. The structure provides a unique position in the unit cell for the magnetic trivalent Gd ion. Two magnetic phase transitions were consistently found in dc- and ac-magnetic susceptibility, heat capacity, and electrical resistivity at temperatures Tₙ₁ = 11 K and Tₙ₂ = 20 K, which is an indication of the complex magnetic behavior in this compound. The compound is found to be metamagnetic over a range of temperatures below and above Tₙ₁. From field-dependent electrical resistivity, it is confirmed that the compound shows unusual negative magnetoresistance in the antiferromagnetically ordered region. These results contribute to a better understanding of this class of materials.

Keywords: complex magnetic behavior, metamagnetic, negative magnetoresistance, two magnetic phase transitions

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Authors: Mohamed A. Eid, Sobhy M. Aly

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Background: About 75% of children with spastic hemiplegic cerebral palsy walk independently, but most still show abnormal gait patterns because of contractures across the joints and muscle spasticity. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the effects of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) versus functional electrical stimulation (FES) on spasticity, function, and gait parameters in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: A randomized controlled trail was conducted for 45 children with hemiplegic CP ranging in age from 6 to 9 years. They were assigned randomly using opaque envelopes into three groups. Physical Therapy (PT) group consisted of 15 children and received the conventional physical therapy program (CPTP) in addition to ankle foot orthosis (AFO). ESWT group consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to ESWT. FES group also consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to FES. All groups received the program of treatment 3 days/week for 12 weeks. Evaluation of spasticity by using the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS), function by using the Pediatric Evaluation Disability Inventory (PEDI) and gait parameters by using the 3-D gait analysis was conducted at baseline and after 12 weeks of the treatment program. Results: Within groups, significant improvements in spasticity, function, and gait (P = 0.05) were observed in both ESWT and FES groups after treatment. While between groups, ESWT group showed significant improvements in all measured variables compared with FES and PT groups (P ˂ 0.05) after treatment. Conclusion: ESWT induced significant improvement than FES in decreasing spasticity and improving function and gait in children with hemiplegic CP. Therefore, ESWT should be included as an adjunctive therapy in the rehabilitation program of these children.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, extracorporeal shock wave therapy, functional electrical stimulation, function, gait, spasticity

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Authors: Yassir Yousfi

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The Ultras phenomena have become the most spectacular form of football fandom in the early twenty-first century. Yet, since their appearance in Morocco, they have been associated with violence and vandalism. This paper aims to explain the political dimension of Moroccan ultra group in terms of their chants in Morocco post-February 20thera. It seeks to analyze their narratives which have shifted to a form of social Hirak, or, using AsefBayat’s term, non-movement. The paper focuses on the dynamics of two nationally and universally notorious groups located in Casablanca, Morocco’s biggest and most densely populated city, namely the “Winners” (supporters of the Wydad Athletic Club) and the “Green Boys” (supporters of the Raja Club Athletic) of Casablanca. The paper adopts a critical perspective analysis that attempts to sketch out some examples of their “political” chants to understand their discourses, spaces of their activities, levels of their impact on the street protests, and their prospects in the political scene. It also seeks to deconstruct the concept of “social movement” while referring to the Ultras as well as discussing their political transition.

Keywords: ultra groups, transition, political chants, football violence, cultural movement

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Authors: Fatou Cisse

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Depression is one of the most serious health problems experienced by immigrants and refugees, who are likely to undergo heightened political, economic, social, and environmental stressors as they transition to a new culture. The purpose of this literature review is to identify and compare risks associated with depression among young adult immigrants and refugees aged 18 to 25. Ten articles focused on risks associated with depression symptoms among this population were reviewed, revealing several common themes: Stress, identity, culture, language barriers, discrimination, social support, self-esteem, length of time in the receiving country, origins, or background. Existing research has failed to account adequately for sample size, language barriers, how the concept of "depression" differs across cultures, and stressors immigrants and refugees experience prior to the transition to the new culture. The study revealed that immigrants and refugees are at risk for depression and that the risk is greater in the refugee population due to their history of trauma. The Roy Adaptation Model was employed to understand the coping mechanisms that refugees and immigrants could use to reduce rates of depression. The psychiatric nurse practitioner must be prepared to intervene and educate this population on these coping mechanisms to help them overcome the feelings that lead to depression and facilitate a smooth integration into the new culture.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, depression, young adults

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Authors: Pirta Palola, Richard Bailey, Lisa Wedding

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Societies and economies worldwide fundamentally depend on natural capital. Alarmingly, natural capital assets are quickly depreciating, posing an existential challenge for humanity. The development of robust natural capital accounting systems is essential for transitioning towards sustainable economic systems and ensuring sound management of capital assets. However, the accurate, equitable and comprehensive estimation of natural capital asset stocks and their accounting values still faces multiple challenges. In particular, the representation of socio-cultural values held by groups or communities has arguably been limited, as to date, the valuation of natural capital assets has primarily been based on monetary valuation methods and assumptions of individual rationality. People relate to and value the natural environment in multiple ways, and no single valuation method can provide a sufficiently comprehensive image of the range of values associated with the environment. Indeed, calls have been made to improve the representation of multiple types of value (instrumental, intrinsic, and relational) and diverse ontological and epistemological perspectives in environmental valuation. This study addresses this need by establishing a novel valuation framework, Environmental Value Functions (EVF), that allows for the integration of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems. The EVF framework is based on the estimation and application of value functions, each of which describes the relationship between the value and quantity (or quality) of an ecosystem component of interest. In this framework, values are estimated in terms of change relative to the current level instead of calculating absolute values. Furthermore, EVF was developed to also support non-marginalist conceptualizations of value: it is likely that some environmental values cannot be conceptualized in terms of marginal changes. For example, ecological resilience value may, in some cases, be best understood as a binary: it either exists (1) or is lost (0). In such cases, a logistic value function may be used as the discriminator. Uncertainty in the value function parameterization can be considered through, for example, Monte Carlo sampling analysis. The use of EVF is illustrated with two conceptual examples. For the first time, EVF offers a clear framework and concrete methodology for the representation of multiple types of value in natural capital accounting systems, simultaneously enabling 1) the complementary use and integration of multiple valuation methods (monetary and non-monetary); 2) the synthesis of information from diverse knowledge systems; 3) the recognition of value incommensurability; 4) marginalist and non-marginalist value analysis. Furthermore, with this advancement, the coupling of EVF and ecosystem modeling can offer novel insights to the study of spatial-temporal dynamics in natural capital asset values. For example, value time series can be produced, allowing for the prediction and analysis of volatility, long-term trends, and temporal trade-offs. This approach can provide essential information to help guide the transition to a sustainable economy.

Keywords: economics of biodiversity, environmental valuation, natural capital, value function

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: Vijaya K. Srivastava, Davide Spinello

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This paper presents performance of two robust gradient-based heuristic optimization procedures based on 3ⁿ enumeration and tunneling approach to seek global optimum of constrained integer problems. Both these procedures consist of two distinct phases for locating the global optimum of integer problems with a linear or non-linear objective function subject to linear or non-linear constraints. In both procedures, in the first phase, a local minimum of the function is found using the gradient approach coupled with hemstitching moves when a constraint is violated in order to return the search to the feasible region. In the second phase, in one optimization procedure, the second sub-procedure examines 3ⁿ integer combinations on the boundary and within hypercube volume encompassing the result neighboring the result from the first phase and in the second optimization procedure a tunneling function is constructed at the local minimum of the first phase so as to find another point on the other side of the barrier where the function value is approximately the same. In the next cycle, the search for the global optimum commences in both optimization procedures again using this new-found point as the starting vector. The search continues and repeated for various step sizes along the function gradient as well as that along the vector normal to the violated constraints until no improvement in optimum value is found. The results from both these proposed optimization methods are presented and compared with one provided by popular MS Excel solver that is provided within MS Office suite and other published results.

Keywords: constrained integer problems, enumerative search algorithm, Heuristic algorithm, Tunneling algorithm

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Masashi Kanazawa, Takaaki Nakano, Masaaki Takemoto, Tomonori Imamura, Mamiko Sugimura, Toshitaka Ito

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Introduction: We experienced a massive disaster due to inhalation of water-soluble paint. Sixteen patients were brought to our emergency room, and pulmonary edema was revealed on the CT images of 12 cases. Purpose: Transition of chest CT-scan findings in cases with pulmonary edema was examined. Method: CT-scans were performed on the 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 19th days after the inhalation event. Patients whose pulmonary edema showed amelioration or exacerbation were classified into the improvement or the exacerbation group, respectively. Those with lung edema findings appearing at different sites after the second day were classified into the changing group. Results: Eight, one and three patients were in the improvement, exacerbation and changing groups, respectively. In all cases, the pulmonary edema had disappeared from CT images on the 19th day after the inhalation event. Conclusion: Inhalation of water-soluble paints is considered to be relatively safe. However, our observations in these emergency cases suggest that, even if pulmonary edema is not severe immediately after the exposure, new lesions may appear later and existing lesions may worsen. Follow-up imaging is thus necessary for about two weeks.

Keywords: CT scan, intoxication, pulmonary edema, water-soluble paint

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Authors: Iwan Setiawan, Bobby Eka Gunara, Katshuhiro Nakamura

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The theory to accelerate system on quantum dynamics has been constructed to get the desired wave function on shorter time. This theory is developed on adiabatic quantum dynamics which any regulation is done on wave function that satisfies Schrödinger equation. We show accelerated manipulation of WFs with the use of a parameter-dependent in asymmetric double-well potential and also when it’s influenced by electromagnetic fields.

Keywords: driving potential, Adiabatic Quantum Dynamics, regulation, electromagnetic field

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Authors: Younes El Khchine, Mohammed Sriti

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A parametric study has been conducted to analyse the flow around S809 airfoil of a wind turbine in order to better understand the characteristics and effects of laminar separation bubble (LSB) on aerodynamic design for maximizing wind turbine efficiency. Numerical simulations were performed at low Reynolds numbers by solving the Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations based on C-type structural mesh and using the γ-Reθt turbulence model. A two-dimensional study was conducted for the chord Reynolds number of 1×10⁵ and angles of attack (AoA) between 0 and 20.15 degrees. The simulation results obtained for the aerodynamic coefficients at various angles of attack (AoA) were compared with XFoil results. A sensitivity study was performed to examine the effects of Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence intensity on the location and length of the laminar separation bubble and the aerodynamic performances of wind turbines. The results show that increasing the Reynolds number leads to a delay in the laminar separation on the upper surface of the airfoil. The increase in Reynolds number leads to an accelerated transition process, and the turbulent reattachment point moves closer to the leading edge owing to an earlier reattachment of the turbulent shear layer. This leads to a considerable reduction in the length of the separation bubble as the Reynolds number is increased. The increase in the level of free-stream turbulence intensity leads to a decrease in separation bubble length and an increase in the lift coefficient while having negligible effects on the stall angle. When the AoA increased, the bubble on the suction airfoil surface was found to move upstream to the leading edge of the airfoil, that causes earlier laminar separation.

Keywords: laminar separation bubble, turbulence intensity, S809 airfoil, transition model, Reynolds number

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Authors: Tobias Horstmann, Thomas Le Garrec, Daniel-Ciprian Mincu, Emmanuel Lévêque

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Despite the efficiency and low dissipation of the stream-collide formulation of the Lattice Boltzmann (LB) algorithm, which is nowadays implemented in many commercial LBM solvers, there are certain situations, e.g. mesh transition, in which a classical finite-volume or finite-difference formulation of the LB algorithm still bear advantages. In this paper, we present an algorithm that combines the node-based streaming of the distribution functions with a second-order finite volume discretization of the advection term of the BGK-LB equation on a uniform D2Q9 lattice. It is shown that such a coupling is possible for a multi-domain approach as long as the overlap, or buffer zone, between two domains, is achieved on at least 2Δx. This also implies that a direct coupling (without buffer zone) of a stream-collide and finite-volume LB algorithm on a single grid is not stable. The critical parameter in the coupling is the CFL number equal to 1 that is imposed by the stream-collide algorithm. Nevertheless, an explicit filtering step on the finite-volume domain can stabilize the solution. In a further investigation, we demonstrate how such a coupling can be used for mesh transition, resulting in an intrinsic conservation of mass over the interface.

Keywords: algorithm coupling, finite volume formulation, grid refinement, Lattice Boltzmann method

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Authors: Saem Lee, Thanh Nguyen, Hio-Jung Shin, Thomas Koellner

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Land-use management has an influence on the provision of ecosystem service in dynamic, agricultural landscapes. Agricultural land use is important for maintaining the productivity and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. However, in Korea, intensive farming activities in this highland agricultural zone, the upper stream of Soyang has led to contaminated soil caused by over-use pesticides and fertilizers. This has led to decrease in water and soil quality, which has consequences for ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Conventional farming has still high percentage in this area and there is no special measure to prevent low water quality caused by farming activities. Therefore, the adoption of environmentally friendly farming has been considered one of the alternatives that lead to improved water quality and increase in biomass production. Concurrently, farm households with environmentally friendly farming have occupied still low rates. Therefore, our research involved a farm household survey spanning conventional farming, the farm in transition and organic farming in Soyang watershed. Another purpose of our research was to compare economic advantage of the farmers adopting environmentally friendly farming and non-adaptors and to investigate the different factors by logistic regression analysis with socio-economic and benefit-cost ratio variables. The results found that farmers with environmentally friendly farming tended to be younger than conventional farming and farmer in transition. They are similar in terms of gender which was predominately male. Farmers with environmentally friendly farming were more educated and had less farming experience than conventional farming and farmer in transition. Based on the benefit-cost analysis, total costs that farm in transition farmers spent for one year are about two times as much as the sum of costs in environmentally friendly farming. The benefit of organic farmers was assessed with 2,800 KRW per household per year. In logistic regression, the factors having statistical significance are subsidy and district, residence period and benefit-cost ratio. And district and residence period have the negative impact on the practice of environmentally friendly farming techniques. The results of our research make a valuable contribution to provide important information to describe Korean policy-making for agricultural and water management and to consider potential approaches to policy that would substantiate ways beneficial for sustainable resource management.

Keywords: organic farming, logistic regression, profitability, agricultural land-use

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Authors: Daniel Schimmelpfennig

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This paper attempts to delineate the idea to curate the leveling up for whole-systems change. Curation is the act fo select, organize, look after, or present information from a professional point of view through expert knowledge. The trans-paradigmatic, trans-contextual, trans-disciplinary, trans-perspective of trans-media futures studies hopes to enable a move from a monochrome intellectual pursuit towards breathing a higher dimensionality. Progressing to the next level to equip actors for whole-systems change is in consideration of the commonly known symptoms of our time as well as in anticipation of future challenges, both a necessity and desirability. Systems of collective intelligence could potentially scale regenerative, adaptive, and anticipatory capacities. How could such a curation then be enacted and implemented, to initiate the process of leveling-up? The suggestion here is to focus on the metasystem transition, the bio-digital fusion, namely, by merging neurosciences, the ontological design of money as our operating system, and our understanding of the billions of years of time-proven permutations in nature, biomimicry, and biological metaphors like symbiogenesis. Evolutionary cybernetics accompanies the process of whole-systems change.

Keywords: bio-digital fusion, evolutionary cybernetics, metasystem transition, symbiogenesis, transmedia futures studies

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Authors: Bijan Nahavandi, Navid Jafarinejad, Somayeh Mehrafzad

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Strategy maps represent the way of value creation in in each organization. Nowadays, implementation of strategy is the main concern for all organizations. Strategy map establishment is the start-up point of strategy implementation and this shows the critical importance of this concept. After some years past since emergence of strategy map, there are some shortcomings in its methodology that frequently quoted by many of researchers. One of these shortcomings is the shortage of a mechanism for refinement of objectives candidate for entrance to map. Organizations in practice have obsession and avidity to determine more number of objectives in strategy map. This study wants to represent a step by step approach to help obviate this problem using quality function deployment (QFD) as a helpful tool and fuzzy screening method. Finally, represented approach applies in a practical case and conclusions have been explained.

Keywords: balanced scorecard, fuzzy screening, house of strategic objectives (HoSO), quality function deployment, strategy map

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: T. H. N. Nguyen, A. Khodan, M. Amamra, J-V. Vignes, A. Kanaev

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The ultraporous nanofibrous alumina (NOA, Al2O3·nH2O) was synthesized by oxidation of laminated aluminium plates through a liquid mercury-silver layer in a humid atmosphere ~80% at 25°C. The material has an extremely high purity (99%), porosity (90%) and specific area (300 m2/g). The subsequent annealing of raw NOA permits obtaining pure transition phase (γ and θ) nanostructured materials. In this combination, we report on chemical, structural and phase transformations of pure and modified NOA by an impregnation of trimethylethoxysilane (TMES) and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) during thermal annealing in the temperature range between 20 and 1650°C. The mass density, specific area, average diameter and specific area are analysed. The 3D model of pure NOA monoliths and silica modified NOA is proposed, which successfully describes the evolution of specific area, mass density and phase transformations. Activation energies of the mass transport in two regimes of surface diffusion and bulk sintering were obtained based on this model. We conclude about a common origin of modifications of the NOA morphology, chemical composition and phase transition.

Keywords: nanostructured materials, alumina (Al₂O₃), morphology, phase transitions

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Authors: Ryo Shikimoto, Hidehito Niimura, Hisashi Kida, Kota Suzuki, Yukiko Miyasaka, Masaru Mimura

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Introduction: In Japan, the most aged country in the world, it is important to explore predictive factors of cognitive function among the elderly. Coping behavior relieves chronic stress and improves lifestyle, and consequently may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment. One of the most widely investigated frameworks evaluated in previous studies is approach-oriented and avoidance-oriented coping strategies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cognitive function and coping strategies among elderly residents in urban areas of Japan. Method: This is a part of the cross-sectional Arakawa geriatric cohort study for 1,099 residents (aged 65 to 86 years; mean [SD] = 72.9 [5.2]). Participants were assessed for cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and diagnosed by psychiatrists in face-to-face interviews. They were then investigated for their each coping behaviors and coping strategies (approach- and avoidance-oriented coping) using stress and coping inventory. A multiple regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between MMSE score and each coping strategy. Results: Of the 1,099 patients, the mean MMSE score of the study participants was 27.2 (SD = 2.7), and the numbers of the diagnosis of normal, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia were 815 (74.2%), 248 (22.6%), and 14 (1.3%), respectively. Approach-oriented coping score was significantly associated with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = 0.12, 95% confidence interval = 0.05 to 0.19) after adjusting for confounding factors including age, sex, and education. Avoidance-oriented coping did not show a significant association with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = -0.02, 95% confidence interval = -0.09 to 0.06). Conclusion: Approach-oriented coping was clearly associated with neurocognitive function in the Japanese population. A future longitudinal trial is warranted to investigate the protective effects of coping behavior on cognitive function.

Keywords: approach-oriented coping, cognitive impairment, coping behavior, dementia

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Authors: Abhilash Sahu, Amit Priyadarshi

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In this paper, we will discuss the existence of weak solutions of the Kirchhoff type boundary value problem on the Sierpinski gasket. Where S denotes the Sierpinski gasket in R² and S₀ is the intrinsic boundary of the Sierpinski gasket. M: R → R is a positive function and h: S × R → R is a suitable function which is a part of our main equation. ∆p denotes the p-Laplacian, where p > 1. First of all, we will define a weak solution for our problem and then we will show the existence of at least two solutions for the above problem under suitable conditions. There is no well-known concept of a generalized derivative of a function on a fractal domain. Recently, the notion of differential operators such as the Laplacian and the p-Laplacian on fractal domains has been defined. We recall the result first then we will address the above problem. In view of literature, Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations are studied extensively on regular domains (open connected domains) in contrast to fractal domains. In fractal domains, people have studied Laplacian equations more than p-Laplacian probably because in that case, the corresponding function space is reflexive and many minimax theorems which work for regular domains is applicable there which is not the case for the p-Laplacian. This motivates us to study equations involving p-Laplacian on the Sierpinski gasket. Problems on fractal domains lead to nonlinear models such as reaction-diffusion equations on fractals, problems on elastic fractal media and fluid flow through fractal regions etc. We have studied the above p-Laplacian equations on the Sierpinski gasket using fibering map technique on the Nehari manifold. Many authors have studied the Laplacian and p-Laplacian equations on regular domains using this Nehari manifold technique. In general Euler functional associated with such a problem is Frechet or Gateaux differentiable. So, a critical point becomes a solution to the problem. Also, the function space they consider is reflexive and hence we can extract a weakly convergent subsequence from a bounded sequence. But in our case neither the Euler functional is differentiable nor the function space is known to be reflexive. Overcoming these issues we are still able to prove the existence of at least two solutions of the given equation.

Keywords: Euler functional, p-Laplacian, p-energy, Sierpinski gasket, weak solution

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Authors: Ratu Khabiba, Qisha Quarina

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This study aims to analyse the effect of married couples’ assortative educational attainments on the division of economic activities among themselves in the household. This study contributes to the literature on women’s participation in employment, especially among married women, to see whether the traditional values about gender roles in the household still continue to shape the employment participation among married women in Indonesia, despite increasing women’s human capital through education. This study utilizes the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2016 and estimates the results using the multinomial logit model. Our results show that compared to high-educated educational homogamy couples, educational heterogamy couples, especially hypergamy, have a higher probability of being a single-worker type. Moreover, the high-educated educational homogamy couples have the highest probability of being a dual-worker type. Thus, we found evidence that the traditional values of gender role segregation seem to still play a significant role in married women’s employment decision in Indonesia, particularly for couples’ with educational heterogamy and low-educated educational homogamy couples.

Keywords: assortative education, dual-worker, hypergamy, homogamy, traditional values, women labor participation

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Authors: Latha Krishnan, Andrew Cobley

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Epoxy resin is most widely used as matrices for composites of aerospace, automotive and electronic applications due to its outstanding mechanical properties. These properties are chiefly predetermined by the chemical structure of the prepolymer and type of hardener but can also be varied by the processing conditions such as prepolymer and hardener mixing, degassing and curing conditions. In this research, the effect of degassing on the curing behaviour and the void occurrence is experimentally evaluated for epoxy /anhydride resin system. The epoxy prepolymer was mixed with an anhydride hardener and accelerator in an appropriate quantity. In order to investigate the effect of degassing on the curing behaviour and void content of the resin, the uncured resin samples were prepared using three different methods: 1) no degassing 2) degassing on prepolymer and 3) degassing on mixed solution of prepolymer and hardener with an accelerator. The uncured resins were tested in differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) to observe the changes in curing behaviour of the above three resin samples by analysing factors such as gel temperature, peak cure temperature and heat of reaction/heat flow in curing. Additionally, the completely cured samples were tested in DSC to identify the changes in the glass transition temperature (Tg) between the three samples. In order to evaluate the effect of degassing on the void content and morphology changes in the cured epoxy resin, the fractured surfaces of cured epoxy resin were examined under the scanning electron microscope (SEM). In addition, the amount of void, void geometry and void fraction were also investigated using an optical microscope and image J software (image analysis software). It was found that degassing at different stages of resin mixing had significant effects on properties such as glass transition temperature, the void content and void size of the epoxy/anhydride resin system. For example, degassing (vacuum applied on the mixed resin) has shown higher glass transition temperature (Tg) with lower void content.

Keywords: anhydride epoxy, curing behaviour, degassing, void occurrence

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar, Shashi Janeoo, Ankit Dhiman, Siddharth Chopra

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Arynes are versatile reactive intermediates that offer broad opportunities in green organic synthesis. Arynes are potential aryl group surrogates for the transition metal-free environment friendly arylation reactions. Regioselective arylations of quinolines were achieved by the reactions of quinoline N-oxides with aryne intermediates generated in situ from the Kobayashi precursors. Various 2-substituted quinolines provided 3-arylated-2-substituted quinolines under ambient conditions. Acridine N-oxides also reacted well and provided unusual 4-arylacridines. Various fluorine containing 2,3-diarylquinaolines prepared using this approach were evaluated for antibacterial activity and two compounds inhibited the drug-resistant strains of S-aureus with a good selectivity index. Further, the 2,3-diarylquinolines as the potential optoelectronic materials were prepared by the aryne chemistry approach and their optical and electronic properties for such applications are under study. The aryne intermediates provide an effective Green Chemistry tool to achieve versatile arylated heteroarenes for diverse applications.

Keywords: arynes, arylation, quinolines, acridines.

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