Search results for: transit trade

Authors: Esra Cebeci

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As a result of acceleration of globalization in the 21st century economic boundaries are removed. With liberalization of capital and foreign trade, not only developed countries but also developing countries get into rapid growth efforts. In developing countries, one of the most important problem is insufficient capital accumulation. For reduce this deficit, one of the general approaches that is offered increasing amount of foreign direct investments. Also, in developing countries saving rates are low. So, foreign direct investments make possible an increase for domestic savings. In this regard, the multinational corporations are capable of these investments have importance. By providing micro-macro effects for countries, demand for these firms are many. These effects in general positive, some negative effects may able to come into being especially for developing countries. Foreign direct investments are performed buying an existing corporation, merging or greenfield investments. In recent, foreign direct investments are performed as a green field investments for developing countries. The study aims to analysis foreign direct investment trends for 2000-2013 years. In the first part of this study, the importance of foreign direct investments and their determinants are explained. In the second part, the article also shows that comparative analysis of the inward and outward investments for developing and developed countries. In conclusion, while developed countries can stand competition against other countries with these investments, developing countries can provide a sustainable growth with capital inflows.

Keywords: foreign direct investments, multinational corporations, determinants of FDI, FDI trend

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Authors: Navid Mirzaei Varzeghani, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Ali Naderan, Amirhossein Taheri

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Countries are progressing, and the world's busiest airports see year-on-year increases in travel demand. Passenger acceptability of an airport depends on the airport's appeals, which may include one of these routes between the city and the airport, as well as the facilities to reach them. One of the critical roles of transportation planners is to predict future transportation demand so that an integrated, multi-purpose system can be provided and diverse modes of transportation (rail, air, and land) can be delivered to a destination like an airport. In this study, 356 questionnaires were filled out in person over six days. First, the attraction of business and non-business trips was studied using data and a linear regression model. Lower travel costs, a range of ages more significant than 55, and other factors are essential for business trips. Non-business travelers, on the other hand, have prioritized using personal vehicles to get to the airport and ensuring convenient access to the airport. Business travelers are also less price-sensitive than non-business travelers regarding airport travel. Furthermore, carrying additional luggage (for example, more than one suitcase per person) undoubtedly decreases the attractiveness of public transit. Afterward, based on the manner and purpose of the trip, the locations with the highest trip generation to the airport were identified. The most famous district in Tehran was District 2, with 23 visits, while the most popular mode of transportation was an online taxi, with 12 trips from that location. Then, significant variables in separation and behavior of travel methods to access the airport were investigated for all systems. In this scenario, the most crucial factor is the time it takes to get to the airport, followed by the method's user-friendliness as a component of passenger preference. It has also been demonstrated that enhancing public transportation trip times reduces private transportation's market share, including taxicabs. Based on the responses of personal and semi-public vehicles, the desire of passengers to approach the airport via public transportation systems was explored to enhance present techniques and develop new strategies for providing the most efficient modes of transportation. Using the binary model, it was clear that business travelers and people who had already driven to the airport were the least likely to change.

Keywords: multimodal transportation, demand modeling, travel behavior, statistical models

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Authors: N. Balamurugan, N. V. Mahalakshmi

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Compression ignition (CI) engines are known for their high thermal efficiency in comparison with spark-ignited (SI) engines. This makes CI engines a potential candidate for the future prime source of power for transportation sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to shrink carbon footprint. However, CI engines produce high levels of NOx and soot emissions. Conventional methods to reduce NOx and soot emissions often result in the infamous NOx-soot trade-off. The injection parameters are one of the most important factors in the working of CI engines. The engine performance, power output, economy etc., is greatly dependent on the effectiveness of the injection parameters. The injection parameter has their direct impact on combustion process and pollutant formation. The injection parameter’s values are required to be optimised according to the application of the engine. Control of fuel injection mode is one method for reduction of NOx and soot emissions that is achievable. This study aims to assess, compare and analyse the influence of the effect of injection characteristics that is SOI timing studied on combustion and emissions in in-cylinder combustion processes with that of conventional DI Diesel Engine system using the commercial Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) package STAR- CD ES-ICE.

Keywords: variation of injection timing, compression ignition engine, spark-ignited, Computational Fluid Dynamic

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Authors: Qing Wu, Fei-Yan Li, Heng-Chang Zhang

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Multitask learning support vector machines (SVMs) have recently attracted increasing research attention. Given several related tasks, the single-task learning methods trains each task separately and ignore the inner cross-relationship among tasks. However, multitask learning can capture the correlation information among tasks and achieve better performance by training all tasks simultaneously. In addition, the asymmetric squared loss function can better improve the generalization ability of the models on the most asymmetric distributed data. In this paper, we first make two assumptions on the relatedness among tasks and propose two multitask learning proximal support vector machine algorithms, named MTL-a-PSVM and EMTL-a-PSVM, respectively. MTL-a-PSVM seeks a trade-off between the maximum expectile distance for each task model and the closeness of each task model to the general model. As an extension of the MTL-a-PSVM, EMTL-a-PSVM can select appropriate kernel functions for shared information and private information. Besides, two corresponding special cases named MTL-PSVM and EMTLPSVM are proposed by analyzing the asymmetric squared loss function, which can be easily implemented by solving linear systems. Experimental analysis of three classification datasets demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed multitask learning algorithms.

Keywords: multitask learning, asymmetric squared loss, EMTL-a-PSVM, classification

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Authors: Fatemeh Noughani, Seyd Mehdi Sadat

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Medical tourism or travel therapy is travelling from one country to another to be under medical treatment, utilizing the health factors of natural sector like mineral water springs and so on. From 1990s medical tourism around the world developed and grew because of different factors like globalization and free trade in the fields of health services, changes in exchange rates in the world economy (which caused the desirability of Asian countries as a medical tourist attraction) in a way that currently there is a close competition in this field among famous countries in medical services to make them find a desirable place in medical tourism market of the world as a complicated and growing industry in a short time. Perhaps tourism is an attractive industry and a good support for the economy of Iran, if we try to merge oil earnings and tourism industry it would be better and more constructive than putting them in front of each other. Moving from oil toward tourism economy especially medical tourism, must be one of the prospects of Iran's government for the oil industry to provide a few percent of the yearly earnings of the country. Among the achievements in medical tourism we can name the prevention of brain drain to other countries and an increase in employment rate for healthcare staff, increase in foreign exchange earnings of the country because of the tourists' staying and followed by increasing the quality of life and cultural transmission as well as empowering the medical human resources.

Keywords: developing countries, health tourism, quality of life, cultural transmission

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Authors: Kulwinder Singh

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Punjab is one of the major labour exporting states of India. Every year more than 20,000 youths from Punjab attempt irregular migration. About 84 irregular migrants are from rural areas and 16 per cent from urban areas. Irregular migration could only be achieved if be organized through highly efficient international networks with the countries of origin, transit, and destination. A good number of Punjabis continue to immigrate into the UK for work through unauthorized means entering the country on visit visas and overstaying or getting ‘smuggled into’ the country with the help of transnational networks of agents. Although, the efforts are being made by the government to curb irregular migration through The Punjab Prevention of Human Smuggling Rules (2012, 2014) and Punjab Travel Regulation Act (2012), but yet it exists parallel to regular migration. Despite unprecedented miseries of irregular migrants and strict laws implemented by the state government to check this phenomenon, ‘why do Punjabis migrate abroad irregularly’ is the important question to answer. This study addresses this question through the comparison of irregular migration with regular one. In other words, this analysis reveals major causes, specifically economic ones, of irregular migration from rural Punjab. This study is unique by presenting economics of irregular migration, given previous studies emphasize the role of sociological and psychological factors. Addressing important question “why do Punjabis migrate abroad irregularly?”, the present study reveals that Punjabi, being far-sighted, endeavor irregular migration as it is, though, economically nonviable in short run, but offers lucrative economic gains as gets older. Despite its considerably higher cost viz-a-viz regular migration, it is the better employment option to irregular migrants with higher permanent income than local low paid jobs for which risking life has become the mindset of the rural Punjabis. Although, it carries considerably lower economic benefits as compared to regular migration, but provides the opportunity of migrating abroad to less educated, semi-skilled and language-test ineligible Punjabis who cannot migrate through regular channels. As its positive impacts on source and destination countries are evident, it might not be restricted, rather its effective management, through liberalising restrictive migration policies by destination nations, can protect the interests of all involved stakeholders.

Keywords: cost, migration, income, irregular, regular, remittances

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Authors: Olanrewaju B. Lasisi

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The position of Ijebu-Ode, the historical capital of the Ijebu Kingdom, at the center of gravity of Ijebu land is enclosed by the 180-km-long earthwork and suggests a centrally controlled project. This paper reflects on the first stratigraphic drawing of the banks and ditches of this earthwork, and place its construction mechanism in a chronological framework. Nine radiocarbon dates obtained at the site suggest that the earthwork was built in the late 14th or early 15th century. This suggests a relationship with the Ijebu Kingdom, which pre-existed the opening of the Atlantic trade but first became visible only in the Portuguese records in the 1480s. In June 2017, more earthworks were found but within the core of Ijebu Land. This most recent finding points to an extension of territory from the center to the outlying villages. One central question about this discovery of monumental architectures that was functional around the 14th century or before is in its mode of construction. Apparently, iron tools must have been used in the construction of ‘a 20m deep ditch that runs 180km in circumference.’ Thus, the discovery of iron-working sites around the vicinity of the earthwork is a pointer to this building process that is up till now shrouded in mystery. By comparing the chronology of Ijebu earthworks with the evidence of Iron working in south western Nigeria around the first half of the first millennium AD, it can be thought that the rise in polity triggered the knowledge of metallurgy in the region.

Keywords: archaeology, earthworks, Ijebu, metallurgy

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Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

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Hosting international major sports events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. Most modern countries believe that MSEs can bring the hosting countries with substantial and considerable economic and non-economic benefits; so many cities also input a huge of resources to bid for hosting MSEs. Despite the growing importance of MSEs, limited longitudinal analysis has been carried out to understand and explain the long term economic effects of such events. This paper is to continue the focus of previous literature on the economic effects of hosting MSEs. The study periods are from 1950 to 2014 and the secondary macro-economic data are selected from the countries that have hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games (including summer and winter) to precede a longitudinal analysis. A comparison of the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade of hosting countries and the duration of these economic effects are also explored and discussed. Based on the countries’ attributes and locating area, aiming to ascertain whether hosting MSEs is economically worthwhile and whether the economic effects from MSEs are realized as anticipated. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like GDP growth or long-term employment may be a myth even for developing countries. However, the empirical findings can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.

Keywords: Asian Games, economic effects, major sports events (MSEs), olympic games

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Authors: Mariam Aref Mahmoud

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A myth surrounding the development of Cairo bases itself in the Fatimid era when the city, as we know it today, was built. Surrounding the city was a wall meant to protect the main center from any possible attack. The effects of global hierarchies of power extend further than labor regulations and trade statistics. Beyond that, they form dialectical oppositions between local and global identities within urban space. As such, those in power often aim to claim national identity as what they perceive to be the most nationally beneficial strategy. These claims over perceptions of national identity take over the streets, the advertisements, and the parks and eventually make their way into the different forms of media. Often, these claims take over the main planning goals of the city. Whether it is through the control over which sounds are allowed to be produced in public space, what type of people are encouraged to enter which spaces, or other forms of performing local and national identity, public space, property, and land have often been used as a method to present to both the public and the global population what people in power wish for these spaces to represent. In Egypt, these developments have been changing since the end of colonial rule. In particular, this paper will analyze how Hosni Mubarak, and to a certain extent Anwar el-Sadat, enacted neoliberal designs dedicated towards modernization in order to present an image of a Cairo that is not uniquely Egyptian but essentially Western cosmopolitan - a Cairo that belongs to a globalized world.

Keywords: Egypt, imperialism, westernization, housing

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Authors: Lorand Ujhazi

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The vast majority of existing canonical studies about migration are focused on examining the general pastoral and legal regulations of the Catholic Church. The weakness of this approach is that it ignores a number of important factors; like the financial, legal and personal circumstances of a particular church or the canonical position of certain organizations which actually look after the immigrants. This paper is a case study, which analyses the current and historical migration related policies and activities of the Catholic Church in Hungary. To achieve this goal the study uses canon law, historical publications, various instructions and communications issued by church superiors, Hungarian and foreign media reports and the relevant Hungarian legislation. The paper first examines how the Hungarian Catholic Church assisted migrants like Armenians fleeing from the Ottoman Empire, Poles escaping during the Second World War, East German and Romanian citizens in the 1980s and refugees from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. These events underline the importance of past historical experience in the development of contemporary pastoral and humanitarian policy of the Catholic Church in Hungary. Then the paper turns to the events of the ongoing crisis by describing the unique challenges faced by churches in transit countries like Hungary. Then the research contrasts these findings with the typical responsibilities of churches in countries which are popular destinations for immigrants. The next part of the case study focuses on the changes to the pre-crisis legal and canonical framework which influenced the actions of hierarchical and charity organizations in Hungary. Afterwards, the paper illustrates the dangers of operating in an unclear legal environment, where some charitable activities of the church like a fundraising campaign may be interpreted as a national security risk by state authorities. Then the paper presents the reactions of Hungarian academics to the current migration crisis and finally it offers some proposals how to improve parts of Canon Law which govern immigration. The conclusion of the paper is that during the formulation of the central refugee policy of the Catholic Church decision makers must take into consideration the peculiar circumstances of its particular churches. This approach may prevent disharmony between the existing central regulations, the policy of the Vatican and the operations of the local church organizations.

Keywords: canon law, Catholic Church, civil law, Hungary, immigration, national security

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Authors: Darshini Mahadevia, Kanika Gounder, Saumya Lathia

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Cities, an outcome of natural growth and migration, are ever-expanding due to urban sprawl. In the Global South, urban areas are experiencing a switch from public transport to private vehicles, coupled with intensified urban agglomeration, leading to frequent longer commutes by automobiles. This increase in travel distance and motorized vehicle kilometres lead to unsustainable cities. To achieve the nationally pledged GHG emission mitigation goal, the government is prioritizing a modal shift to low-carbon transport modes like mass transit and paratransit. Mixed land-use and urban densification are crucial for the economic viability of these projects. Informed by desktop assessment of mobility plans and in-person primary surveys, the paper explores the challenges around urban densification and travel patterns in two Indian cities of contrasting nature- Surat, a metropolitan industrial city with a 5.9 million population and a very compact urban form, and Udaipur, a heritage city attracting large international tourists’ footfall, with limited scope for further densification. Dense, mixed-use urban areas often improve access to basic services and economic opportunities by reducing distances and enabling people who don't own personal vehicles to reach them on foot/ cycle. But residents travelling on different modes end up contributing to similar trip lengths, highlighting the non-uniform distribution of land-uses and lack of planned transport infrastructure in the city and the urban-peri urban networks. Additionally, it is imperative to manage these densities to reduce negative externalities like congestion, air/noise pollution, lack of public spaces, loss of livelihood, etc. The study presents a comparison of the relationship between transport systems with the built form in both cities. The paper concludes with recommendations for managing densities in urban areas along with promoting low-carbon transport choices like improved non-motorized transport and public transport infrastructure and minimizing personal vehicle usage in the Global South.

Keywords: India, low-carbon transport, travel behaviour, trip length, urban densification

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Authors: Hyun-Soo Seol, In-Gun Kim, Hyun Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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Rotor of Spoke-Type PMSM is divided into permanent magnet and rotor core. Moreover, rotor core is composed of pole-piece, Bridge and rib. Piece between the permanent magnet N and S poles is pole-piece. Bridge and rib hold pole-piece. In the case of pole-piece and bridge, it is essential structure of Spoke-Type PMSM. However, Rib can be selected by the designer depending on the operating conditions and constraints. If rib is present in the rotor, rib which acts in the leak path generates a leakage flux. Although the leakage flux reduces the torque in low speed, it expands speed range in high speed. So, there is a relationship of trade off. Viewed from the standpoint of permanent magnet demagnetization, since the magnetic flux by the stator winding leaks to the rib, it is an advantage. In addition, rib affects the safety factor of the rotor. For application required high speed operation, since the securing the safety factor of the rotor is important, rib structure is advantageous. On the other hand, in the case of the application that does not require high speed operation, it is desirable to increase the output power by designing without rib. In this paper, Effects on rib structure is analyzed in detail and this paper provides designer with information about rotor design of spoke-type PMSM according to rib structure.

Keywords: spoke-Type PMSM, rotor shape, rib, operation range

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Authors: Madhura Yadav

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Urban redevelopment planning initiatives in developing countries have been largely criticised due to top-down planning approach and lack of involvement of the targeted beneficiaries which have led to a challenging situation which is contrary to the perceived needs of beneficiaries. Urban renewal projects improve the lives of people and meaningful participation of community plays a pivotal role. Public perceptions on satisfaction and participation have been given less priority in the investigation, which hinders effective planning and implementation of urban renewal projects. Moreover, challenges of community participation in urban renewal projects are less documented, particularly in relation to public participation and satisfaction. There is a need for new paradigm shift focusing on community participatory approach in urban renewal projects. The over 125-year-old Bhendi Bazar in Mumbai, India is the country’s first ever cluster redevelopment project, popularly known as Bhendi Bazaar redevelopment and it will be one of the largest projects for urban rejuvenation of one of Mumbai’s oldest and dying inner city areas. The project is led by the community trust, inputs were taken from various stakeholders, including residents, commercial tenants and expert consultants to shape the master plan and design of the project. The project started in 2016 but there is a significant delay in implementing the project. The study aimed at studying and assessing public perceptions on satisfaction and the relationship between community participation and community satisfaction in Bhendi Bazaar of Mumbai, India. Furthermore, the study will outline the challenges and problems of community participation in urban renewal projects and it suggests recommendations for the future. The qualitative and quantitative methods such as reconnaissance survey, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, walking interviews, a narrative inquiry is used for analysis of data. Preliminary findings revealed that all tenants are satisfied for the redevelopment of an area but the willingness of residential tenants to move in transit accommodation has made the projects successful and reductant of some residential and commercial tenants, regulatory provisions rising to face challenges in implementation. Experiences from the case study can help to understand dynamics behind public participation and government. At the same time, they serve as an inspiration and learning opportunity for future projects to ensure that they are sustainable not only from an economic standpoint but also, a social perspective.

Keywords: urban renewal, Bhendi Bazaar, community participation, satisfaction, social perspective

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Authors: Gabriella Fardhiyanti, Victor Wee

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Air connectivity is the crucial factors to boost a region economics growth. It will open the accessibility to support regional competitiveness and helps to achieve ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) integration in term of economic integration, business investment, promote intra-regional trade, and creates the sense of belongingness among ASEAN people in the region. An increasing number of air connectivity and transportation will be benefiting the region because air transportation is a vital hub for ASEAN. The aim of this paper is to address the importance of air connectivity in promoting ASEAN Integration, by focusing on the ASEAN vision for a more integrated region. The assessment uses based on the Netscan Air connectivity model based on the flight destination and airport connectivity index, further analysis present that air connectivity significantly influence ASEAN tourism sector. Follow by the implications of open skies policy for the liberation of the aviation industry and the growth of low cost-carriers (LCCs) in the region. This paper provides recommendation and strategy for overcoming the challenges faced by ASEAN to boost ASEAN tourism integration successfully. The findings can assist in guiding policy and industry stakeholders in the future decision relating to air liberalization and more integrated system in the region.

Keywords: air connectivity, ASEAN integration, low-cost carries, NetScan connectivity model, open skies policy

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Authors: Ezechi Onyerionwu

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If there is a modern world literary culture that has so tremendously patronized the tragic mode, it has to be that of Africa, and this has been largely true to the extent that the African socio-historical process has been given strong projection by its literature and other art forms. From the three-century-long transatlantic slave trade which brutally translocated millions of Africans to the ‘outermost parts of the earth’, to the vicious partitioning of Africa among European powers and the subsequent imposition of colonial authority on a pulverized people, Africa has really been at the receiving end of the big negatives of global transactions. The African tale has largely been one long tragic narrative. However, the postcolonial African tragic saga has presented an interesting variety of forms and approaches, which have seen to the production of some of the most thought-provoking and acclaimed African novels of the late 20th and early 21st century. Some of the defining characteristics of the African tragic prose has been: the exploration of the many neocolonial implications of the African contemporary existence; the significance of the robust interplay between the essentially foreign, and the originally indigenous elements of the modern African society; and the implosive aftermaths of the individual modern African’s attempt to rationalize his position at the centre of a very complex society. Obioma’s incredible novel, The Fishermen, is in many ways, a classic of the African postcolonial narrative tragedy. The reasons for this bold categorization would occupy the present paper.

Keywords: African narrative tragedy, neocolonialism, postcolonial literature, twenty first century African literature

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Authors: R. A. Retno Hastijanti, David Agus Sagita, Arum Lintang Cahyani, Tectona Radike, Andreas Suluh Putra

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Surabaya, is one of the oldest cities in Indonesia. Most of the old quarter city of Surabaya is an ancient Kampong. Ketandan is one ancient Kampong in the center of Surabaya, surrounded by a thriving trade area. These conditions make Kampong vulnerably degraded of environmental quality and tended to lose their cultural identity. Norms and values eroded by the rapid development of its local surroundings. Through Kampong conservation programs, Surabaya city government established Ketandan as one of the urban heritage. To achieve the ideal condition of urban heritage, public participation is required. One thing that can generate a motivation for Kampong Ketandan community participation is to rediscover the identity of Kampong Ketandan. This research aims to explore the appropriate method to rediscover the identity of Kampong Ketandan. Through qualitative research methods, based on observations and focus group discussions, it was concluded that mural mentoring program was the best method that can be accepted by the Kampong community to rediscover their identity. Mural as one of the urban art form, able to motivate Kampong community to express their self and bring an icon to their Kampong. The benefits of this research are to provide input to the city government and the private sector to preserve urban heritage, moreover, to transform an urban heritage into a productive space in urban areas in order to enhance city revenues.

Keywords: Kampong, Kampong Ketandan, mural, Surabaya, urban, urban heritage, urban art

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Authors: Sakapas Saengchai, Vilasinee Jintalikhitdee, Mathinee Khongsatid, Nattapol Pourprasert

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This paper studied the preparing education enter the ASEAN Community by the year 2015 the Ministry of Education has policy on ASEAN Charter, including the dissemination of information to create a good attitude about ASEAN, development of students' skills appropriately, development of educational standards to prepare for the liberalization of education in the region and Youth Development as a vital resource in advancing the ASEAN community. Preparing for the liberalization of education Commission on Higher Education (CHE) has prepared Thailand strategic to become ASEAN and support the free trade in higher education service; increasing graduate capability to reach international standards; strengthening higher educational institutions; and enhancing roles of educational institutions in the ASEAN community is main factor in set up long-term education frame 15 years, volume no. 2. As well as promoting Thailand as a center for education in the neighbor countries. As well as development data centers of higher education institutions in the region make the most of the short term plan is to supplement the curriculum in the ASEAN community. Moreover, provides a teaching of English and other languages used in the region, creating partnerships with the ASEAN countries to exchange academics staff and students, research, training, development of joint programs, and system tools in higher education.

Keywords: ASEAN community, education, institution, dissemination of information

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Authors: Regina Chua

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To reduce the costs of re-fielding a large survey, a Random Forest classifier was applied to measure the accuracy of classifying individuals into their assigned segments with the fewest possible questions. Given a long survey, one needed to determine the most predictive ten or fewer questions that would accurately assign new individuals to custom segments. Furthermore, the solution needed to be quick in its classification and usable in non-Python environments. In this paper, a supervised Random Forest classifier was modeled on a dataset with 7,000 individuals, 60 questions, and 254 features. The Random Forest consisted of an iterative collection of individual decision trees that result in a predicted segment with robust precision and recall scores compared to a single tree. A random 70-30 stratified sampling for training the algorithm was used, and accuracy trade-offs at different depths for each segment were identified. Ultimately, the Random Forest classifier performed at 87% accuracy at a depth of 10 with 20 instead of 254 features and 10 instead of 60 questions. With an acceptable accuracy in prioritizing feature selection, new tools were developed for non-Python environments: a worksheet with a formulaic version of the algorithm and an embedded function to predict the segment of an individual in real-time. Random Forest was determined to be an optimal classification model by its feature selection, performance, processing speed, and flexible application in other environments.

Keywords: machine learning, supervised learning, data science, random forest, classification, prediction, predictive modeling

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Authors: Oentoeng Wahjoe

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Liberalisation of air transportation practically is known as open sky policy. In the practice, the liberalisation of air transportation is divided into two group of services, i.e.: air transportation services, for passengers and goods (air service) which is categorized as hard rights and supporting services of the air transportation services (ancillary services) which is categorized as soft rights. The research in this paper focused in air transportation services for passengers and goods, consists of nine freedom of the air. The impact of the policy such as the Agreement regarding ASEAN open sky policy, is the readiness of Indonesian air transportation companies to compete with foreign air transportation companies. The goverment of Indonesia has to regulate the implementation of ASEAN Open Sky Policy to be projected in order to comply with national development, i.e. the function of air law in national development. The policy has been implemented by enact or amend the existing law as air law that regulate flight lines, the following provisions: To regulate flight line for foreign airlines to open flight lines in Indonesia region which may not or have not land and sea transportation. The regulation is intended to supprot mobility of humans, goods and services that may fulfil the needs of the people of Indonesia, which materially and spiritually and the development of the region. The regulation of flight lines of foreign air transportation for region of tourism, industrial and trade centre. The regulation is intended to support the national economic development of Indonesia.

Keywords: transport, liberalization, impact, Indonesian air service

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Authors: Helena Susana Afonso Alves, Natália Maria Rafael Canadas, Ana Maria Rodrigues

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We examined the impact of governance rules on information asymmetry, using the turnover ratio and the bid-ask spread as proxies for the information asymmetry. We used a SEM model and analyzed the indirect relations through the voluntary disclosure of information and the organizational performance. We built a voluntary disclosure index based on the information firms provided in their annual reports and divided the governance characteristics in two constructs: directors’ and supervisors’ structures and ownership structure. We concluded that the ownership structure exerts a direct influence on share price and share liquidity, Otherwise, the directors’ and supervisors’ structures exert an indirect influence, through the organizational performance and the voluntary disclosure of information. The results also show that for firms with high levels of disclosure the bid-ask spread is lower. However, in firms with a high ownership concentration investors tend to increase the bid-ask spreads and trade less, which, in this case, reduces the liquidity of the stock. The failure to find the relationship between voluntary disclosure of information and the turnover ratio shows us that the liquidity of shares is more related to the greater or lesser concentration of shareholders, with the performance of their companies than with the access to information. Moreover, it is clear that the role that information disclosure plays is mainly at the level of price formation.

Keywords: corporate governance, information asymmetry, voluntary disclosure, structural equation modelling, SEM

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Authors: Arjun K., Arumugam Sankaran, Sanjay Kumar, Mousumi Das

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The paper analyses the existence of endogenous growth scenario emanating from the demographic dividend in India during the liberalization period starting from 1980. Demographic dividend creates a fertile ground for the cultivation of human and knowledge capitals contributing to technological progress which can be measured using total factor productivity. The relationship among total factor productivity, human and knowledge capitals are examined in an open endogenous framework for the period 1980-2016. The control variables such as foreign direct investment, trade openness, energy consumption are also employed. The data are sourced from Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, International Energy Agency and The National Science and Technology Management Information System. To understand the dynamic association among variables, ARDL bounds approach to cointegration followed by Toda-Yamamoto causality test are used. The results reveal a short run and long run relationship among the variables supported by the existence of causality. This calls for an integrated policy to build and augment human capital and research and development activities to sustain and pace up growth and development in the nation.

Keywords: demographic dividend, young population, open endogenous growth models, human and knowledge capital

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Authors: Laila Algalal, Chen Xi

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The US dollar has long served as the world's primary reserve currency. However, this dominance faces growing challenges from internal US economic pressures and the rise of alternative currencies. Internally, issues like high debt, inflation, reduced competitiveness, and economic instability due to inequality in economic policies threaten the dollar's position. Externally, more countries are establishing alternative currencies, payment systems, and regional financial institutions to reduce dollar dependence. These drivers have contributed to a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 71% in 2001 to an estimated 58% in 2022. While this 13-percentage point drop took two decades, recent initiatives suggest de-dollarization could accelerate in the coming few decades. Efforts to establish non-dollar trade deals and alternative financial systems show more substantial progress compared to initiatives in the early 2000s. As the nature of the world system is anarchic, states make either individual or group efforts to guarantee their economic security and achieve their interests. Based on neoclassical realism, this paper analyzes both internal and external US economic factors driving current and future de-dollarization and the implications on the international monetary system, in addition to examining the motivation for such moves.

Keywords: de-dollarization, US dollar, monetary system, economic security, economic policies.

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Authors: Federico Pittino, Thomas Arnold

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The shredding of waste materials is a key step in the recycling process towards the circular economy. Industrial shredders for waste processing operate in very harsh operating conditions, leading to the need for frequent maintenance of critical components. Maintenance optimization is particularly important also to increase the machine’s efficiency, thereby reducing the operational costs. In this work, a monitoring system has been developed and deployed on an industrial shredder located at a waste recycling plant in Austria. The machine has been monitored for one year, and methods for predictive maintenance have been developed for two key components: the cutting knives and the drive belt. The large amount of collected data is leveraged by statistical machine learning techniques, thereby not requiring very detailed knowledge of the machine or its live operating conditions. The results show that, despite the wide range of operating conditions, a reliable estimate of the optimal time for maintenance can be derived. Moreover, the trade-off between the cost of maintenance and the increase in power consumption due to the wear state of the monitored components of the machine is investigated. This work proves the benefits of real-time monitoring system for the efficient operation of industrial shredders.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, circular economy, industrial shredder, cost optimization, statistical machine learning

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Authors: Shanti Swaroop Gupta, Bibekananda Mohapatra, S. K. Chaturvedi, Anand Bohra

Abstract:

For sustainable development in India, there is an urgent need to follow the principles of industrial symbiosis in the industrial processes, under which the scraps, wastes, or by‐products of one industry can become the raw materials for another. This will not only help in reducing the dependence on natural resources but also help in gaining economic advantage to the industry. Gypsum is one such area in India, where the linear economy model of by-product gypsum utilization has resulted in unutilized legacy phosphogypsum stock of 64.65 million tonnes (mt) at phosphoric acid plants in 2020-21. In the future, this unutilized gypsum stock will increase further due to the expected generation of Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) gypsum in huge quantities from thermal power plants. Therefore, it is essential to transit from the linear to circular economy in Gypsum in India, which will result in huge environmental as well as ecological benefits. Gypsum is required in many sectors like Construction (Cement industry, gypsum boards, glass fiber reinforced gypsum panels, gypsum plaster, fly ash lime bricks, floor screeds, road construction), agriculture, in the manufacture of Plaster of Paris, pottery, ceramic industry, water treatment processes, manufacture of ammonium sulphate, paints, textiles, etc. The challenges faced in areas of quality, policy, logistics, lack of infrastructure, promotion, etc., for complete utilization of by-product gypsum have been discussed. The untapped potential of by-product gypsum utilization in various sectors like the use of gypsum in agriculture for sodic soil reclamation, utilization of legacy stock in cement industry on mission mode, improvement in quality of by-product gypsum by standardization and usage in building materials industry has been identified. Based on the measures required to tackle the various challenges and utilization of the untapped potential of gypsum, a comprehensive action plan for the transition from linear to the circular economy in gypsum in India has been formulated. The strategies and policy measures required to implement the action plan to achieve a circular economy in Gypsum have been recommended for various government departments. It is estimated that the focused implementation of the proposed action plan would result in a significant decrease in unutilized gypsum legacy stock in the next five years and it would cease to exist by 2027-28 if the proposed action plan is effectively implemented.

Keywords: circular economy, FGD gypsum, India, phosphogypsum

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Authors: S. Albert, R. Cossu, A. Grinham, C. Heatherington, C. Wilson

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Shipping trends suggest increasing vessel size and draught visiting Australian ports highlighting potential challenges to port infrastructure and requiring optimization of shipping channels to ensure safe passage for vessels. The Port of Brisbane in Queensland, Australia has an 80 km long access shipping channel which vessels must transit 15 km of relatively shallow coffee rock (generic class of indurated sands where sand grains are bound within an organic clay matrix) outcrops towards the northern passage in Moreton Bay. This represents a risk to shipping channel deepening and maintenance programs as the dredgeability of this material is more challenging due to its high cohesive strength compared with the surrounding marine sands and potential higher acid sulfate risk. In situ assessment of acid sulfate sediment for dredge spoil control is an important tool in mitigating ecological harm. The coffee rock in an anoxic undisturbed state does not pose any acid sulfate risk, however when disturbed via dredging it’s vital to ensure that any present iron sulfides are either insignificant or neutralized. To better understand the potential risk we examined the reduction potential of coffee rock across the entire dredge cycle in order to accurately portray the true outcome of disturbed acid sulfate sediment in dredging operations in Moreton Bay. In December 2014 a dredge trial was undertaken with a trailing suction hopper dredger. In situ samples were collected prior to dredging revealed acid sulfate potential above threshold guidelines which could lead to expensive dredge spoil management. However, potential acid sulfate risk was then monitored in the hopper and subsequent discharge, both showing a significant reduction in acid sulfate potential had occurred. Additionally, the acid neutralizing capacity significantly increased due to the inclusion of shell fragments (calcium carbonate) from the dredge target areas. This clearly demonstrates the importance of assessing potential acid sulfate risk across the entire dredging cycle and highlights the need to carefully evaluate sources of acidity.

Keywords: acid sulfate, coffee rock, indurated sand, dredging, maintenance dredging

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

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Authors: Gabriel Sitler, Yousef Sardahi, Asad Salem

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This paper presents an optimal and robust sliding mode controller (SMC) to regulate the position of the knee joint angle for patients suffering from knee injuries. The controller imitates the role of active orthoses that produce the joint torques required to overcome gravity and loading forces and regain natural human movements. To this end, a mathematical model of the shank, the lower part of the leg, is derived first and then used for the control system design and computer simulations. The design of the controller is carried out in optimal and multi-objective settings. Four objectives are considered: minimization of the control effort and tracking error; and maximization of the control signal smoothness and closed-loop system’s speed of response. Optimal solutions in terms of the Pareto set and its image, the Pareto front, are obtained. The results show that there are trade-offs among the design objectives and many optimal solutions from which the decision-maker can choose to implement. Also, computer simulations conducted at different points from the Pareto set and assuming knee squat movement demonstrate competing relationships among the design goals. In addition, the proposed control algorithm shows robustness in tracking a standard gait signal when accounting for uncertainty in the shank’s parameters.

Keywords: optimal control, multi-objective optimization, sliding mode control, wearable knee exoskeletons

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Authors: K. Debkowska

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The aim of this article is presenting the possibilities of using Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) in researches concerning business models of enterprises. FsQCA is a bridge between quantitative and qualitative researches. It's potential can be used in analysis and evaluation of business models. The article presents the results of a study conducted on the basis of enterprises belonging to different sectors: transport and logistics, industry, building construction, and trade. The enterprises have been researched taking into account the components of business models and the financial condition of companies. Business models are areas of complex and heterogeneous nature. The use of fsQCA has enabled to answer the following question: which components of a business model and in which configuration influence better financial condition of enterprises. The analysis has been performed separately for particular sectors. This enabled to compare the combinations of business models' components which actively influence the financial condition of enterprises in analyzed sectors. The following components of business models were analyzed for the purposes of the study: Key Partners, Key Activities, Key Resources, Value Proposition, Channels, Cost Structure, Revenue Streams, Customer Segment and Customer Relationships. These components of the study constituted the variables shaping the financial results of enterprises. The results of the study lead us to believe that fsQCA can help in analyzing and evaluating a business model, which is important in terms of making a business decision about the business model used or its change. In addition, results obtained by fsQCA can be applied by all stakeholders connected with the company.

Keywords: business models, components of business models, data analysis, fsQCA

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Authors: Seung-Seok Bak, Chang-Mu Jung

Abstract:

An enough amount supply of industrial complexes is an important national policy in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade. A development process of the industrial complex can distinguish between the planning stage and the construction stage. The planning stage consists of the process of consulting with many stakeholders on the contents of the development of industrial complex, feasibility study, compliance with the Regional policies, and so on. The industrial complex planning stage, including licensing procedure, usually takes about three years in South Korea. The government determined that the appropriate supply of industrial complexes have been delayed, due to the long licensing period and drafted a law to shorten the license period in 2008. The law was expected to shorten the period of licensing, which was about three years, to six months. This paper attempts to show that the shortening of the licensing period does not positively affect the appropriate supply of industrial complexes. To do this, we used Interrupted Time Series Designs. As a result, it was found that the supply of industrial complexes was influenced more by other factors such as actual industrial complex demand of private sector and macro-level economic variables. In addition, the specific provisions of the law conflict with local policy and cause some problems such as damage to nature and agricultural land, traffic congestion.

Keywords: development of industrial complexes, industrial complexes, interrupted time series designs, simplification of licensing procedures for industrial complexes, time series regression

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Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 84