Search results for: risk of type 2 diabetes

Authors: Oseyemi Omowunmi Olubomehin, Olufemi Michael Denton

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Diabetes mellitus is a disease that is related to the digestion of carbohydrates, proteins and fats and how this affects the blood glucose levels. Various synthetic drugs employed in the management of the disease work through different mechanisms. Keeping postprandial blood glucose levels within acceptable range is a major factor in the management of type 2 diabetes and its complications. Thus, the inhibition of carbohydrate-hydrolyzing enzymes such as α-amylase is an important strategy in lowering postprandial blood glucose levels, but synthetic inhibitors have undesirable side effects like flatulence, diarrhea, gastrointestinal disorders to mention a few. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and explore the α-amylase inhibitors from plants due to their availability, safety, and low costs. In the present study, extracts from the leaves of Rauvolfia vomitoria and seeds of Picralima nitida which are used in the Nigeria traditional system of medicine to treat diabetes were tested for their α-amylase inhibitory effect. The powdered plant samples were subjected to phytochemical screening using standard procedures. The leaves and seeds macerated successively using n-hexane, ethyl acetate and methanol resulted in the crude extracts which at different concentrations (0.1, 0.5 and 1 mg/mL) alongside the standard drug acarbose, were subjected to α-amylase inhibitory assay using the Benfield and Miller methods, with slight modification. Statistical analysis was done using ANOVA, SPSS version 2.0. The phytochemical screening results of the leaves of Rauvolfia vomitoria and the seeds of Picralima nitida showed the presence of alkaloids, tannins, saponins and cardiac glycosides while in addition Rauvolfia vomitoria had phenols and Picralima nitida had terpenoids. The α-amylase assay results revealed that at 1 mg/mL the methanol, hexane, and ethyl acetate extracts of the leaves of Rauvolfia vomitoria gave (15.74, 23.13 and 26.36 %) α-amylase inhibitions respectively, the seeds of Picralima nitida gave (15.50, 30.68, 36.72 %) inhibitions which were not significantly different from the control at p < 0.05, while acarbose gave a significant 56 % inhibition at p < 0.05. The presence of alkaloids, phenols, tannins, steroids, saponins, cardiac glycosides and terpenoids in these plants are responsible for the observed anti-diabetic activity. However, the low percentages of α-amylase inhibition by these plant samples shows that α-amylase inhibition is not the major way by which both plants exhibit their anti-diabetic effect.

Keywords: alpha-amylase, Picralima nitida, postprandial hyperglycemia, Rauvolfia vomitoria

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Authors: Mohamed Fairooz Abdul Khir

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The linkage between liability for risk and legitimacy of reward is a governing principle that must be fully observed in financial transactions. It is the cornerstone of any Islamic business or financial deal. The absence of risk taking principle may give rise to numerous prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and gambling that violate the objectives of financial transactions. However, fiqhī domains from which it emanates have not been clearly spelled out by the scholars. In addition, the concept of risk taking in relation to contemporary risks associated with financial contracts, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and market risk, needs further scrutiny as regard their Sharīʿah bases. Hence, this study is imperatively significant to prove that absence of risk taking concept in Islamic financial instruments give rise to prohibited elements particularly ribā. This study is primarily intended to clarify the concept of risk in Islamic financial transactions from the fiqhī perspective and evaluate analytically the selected issues involving risk taking based on the established concept of risk taking from fiqhī viewpoint. The selected issues are amongst others charging cost of fund on defaulting customers, holding the lessee liable for total loss of leased asset under ijārah thumma al-bayʿ and capital guarantee under mushārakah based instruments. This is a library research in which data has been collected from various materials such as classical fiqh books, regulators’ policy guidelines and journal articles. This study employed deductive and inductive methods to analyze the data critically in search for conclusive findings. It suggests that business risks have to be evaluated based on their subjects namely (i) property (māl) and (ii) work (ʿamal) to ensure that Islamic financial instruments structured based on certain Sharīʿah principles are not diverted from the risk taking concept embedded in them. Analysis of the above selected cases substantiates that when risk taking principle is breached, the prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and maysir do arise and that they impede the realization of the maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah intended from Islamic financial contracts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, ownership risk, ribā, risk taking

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Authors: Kobus-Cisowska Joanna, Flaczyk Ewa, Gramza-Michalowska Anna, Kmiecik Dominik, Przeor Monika, Marcinkowska Agata

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In recent years, proceed to the attractiveness of typical bakery products. Expanding the education and nutrition knowledge society will develop the production of functional foods, which has a positive impact on human health. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the addition of white mulberry fruit on the content of biologically active compounds in the new designed functional bread premixes designed for selected disease: anemia, diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. For flavonols and phenolic acids content UPLC was conducted, using an NovaPack C18 column and a gradient elution system. It was found that all attempts bread characterized by a high content of biologically active compounds: polyphenols, phenolic acids, and flavonoids. The highest total content of polyphenolic compounds found in the samples of bread for anemia, diabetes and cardiovascular disease both before and after storage. The analyzed sample differed in content of phenolic acids. The highest content of these compounds were found in samples of bread for anemia and diabetes. It was found that the analyzed sample contained phenolic acids that are derivatives of hydroxybenzoic and hydroxycinnamic acid. The new designed bread contained significant amounts of flavonols, of which the dominant was routine.

Keywords: mulberry, antioxidant, polyphenols, phenolic acids, flavonols

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Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi

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The project of helping students at risk started at the Math department in the new foundation program at Qatar University in the fall 2012 semester. The purpose was to find ways to help students who were struggling with their math courses Elementary algebra or Precalculus course due to many factors. Department had formed the Committee “students at Risk” at the start of 12-13 to assist struggling students in our math courses to get their studies on track. A mechanism was developed to support students who are at risk using a developed E-Monitoring system. E-Monitoring system was developed to manage automatically all transactions relevant to the students’ attendance, Students ‘‘warning Students’’ grading, etc. E-Monitoring System produce various statistics such as, Overall course statistics, Performance, Students at Risk… to help department to develop a higher quality of education in the Foundation Program at Math department. The mechanism was studies and evaluated. Whatever the cause, the sooner we identify students who are not performing well academically, the sooner we can provide, or direct them to the resources that are available to them. In this paper, we outline the mechanism and its effect on students’ performance. The collected data from various exams shows that students had benefited from the mechanism.

Keywords: students at risk, e-monitoring system, warning students, performance

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Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Jia-Ling Ho, Xiu-Ru Zhang, Zwe-Ling Kong

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major health problem that affects patients’ life quality throughout the world due to its many complications. It characterized by chronic hyperglycemia with oxidative stress, which impaired male reproductive function. Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a metabolic regulator that is required for normal spermatogenesis and protects against diabetes-induced germ cell apoptosis. Echinacea purpurea ethanol extract (EE), which contain phenolic acid and isobutylamide, had been proven to have antidiabetic property. Silica-chitosan nanoparticles (Nano-CS) has drug delivery and controlled release properties. This study aims to investigate whether silica-chitosan nanoparticles encapsulated EE (Nano-EE) had more ameliorating male infertility by analyzing the effect of testicular FGF21. The Nano-EE was characterized before used to treatment the diabetic rat model. Male Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were obtained and divided into seven groups. A group was no induced Streptozotocin (STZ), marked as normal group. Diabetic rats were induced into diabetes by STZ (33 mg/kg). A diabetic group was no treatment with sample (diabetic control group), and other groups were treatment by Nano-CS (465 mg/kg), Nano-EE (93, 279, 465 mg/kg), and metformin (Met) (200 mg/kg) used as reference drug for 7 weeks. Our results indicated that the average nanoparticle size and zeta potential of Nano-EE were 2630 nm and -21.3 mV, respectively. The encapsulation ratio of Nano-EE was about 70%. It also confirmed the antioxidative activity was unchanged by comparing the DPPH and ABTS scavenging of Nano-EE and EE. In vivo test, Nano-EE can improve the STZ induced hyperglycemia, insulin resistance, and plasma FGF21 levels. Nano-EE has increased sperm motility, mitochondria membrane potential (MMP), plasma testosterone level, and reduction of abnormal sperm, nitric oxide (NO), superoxide production as well as reactive oxygen species (ROS). In addition, in plasma antioxidant enzymes glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) was increased whereas pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α, and IL-1β were decreased. Further, in testis, protein content of FGF21, PGC-1α, and SIRT1 were improved. Nano-EE might improve diabetes-induced down-regulation of testicular FGF21 and SIRT1/PGC-1α signaling hence maintain spermatogenesis.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, Echinacea purpurea, reproductive dysfunction, silica-chitosan nanoparticles

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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Authors: Isaac Gbadura Adanlawo, Olusola Olalekan Elekofehinti

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This work investigated the antihyperglycemic, antioxidant and antihyperlipidemic effects of saponins from the fruit of Solanum anguivi, a plant generally used in folk medicine to treat diabetes and hypertension and to compare its effect with metformin in streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetic rats. Diabetes was induced in albino rats by administration of STZ (65 mg/kg) intraperitoneally. Saponin (40 and 100 mg/kg) was administered by oral gavage once daily for 21 days. Metformin (200 mg/kg b.w.) was administered as the positive control. The effect of saponin on blood glucose, serum lipids and enzymatic antioxidants defense systems, like superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), as well as MDA levels in serum, liver and pancreas were studied. Saponins from S. anguivi fruits reduced the blood glucose, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels in STZ-diabetic rats. They also significantly abolished the increase in MDA level in serum, liver and pancreas of diabetic rats. The activities of SOD and CAT in serum, liver and pancreas were significantly increased as well as concentration of HDL in the serum. Metformin had the same effect as saponin but saponins seems to be more potent in reducing serum TC, TG, LDL, and MDA, and increasing SOD and CAT. Conclusions: These results suggest that saponins from S. anguivi fruits have anti-diabetic and antihypercholesterolemic, antihypertriglyceridemic antiperoxidative activities mediated through their antioxidant properties. Also, saponins appeared to have more hypolipidemic, antiperoxidative and antioxidant activity than metformin.

Keywords: saponin, diabetes, metformin, streptozotocin, Solanum anguivi

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Authors: Nicholas Abdilmasih, Habib Rezanejad

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This study investigates the gene expression induction efficiency of single versus multiple guide RNAs (gRNAs) targeting the NGN3 gene using the CRISPR activation system in HEK293 cells. Our study aimed to contribute to optimizing the use of gRNAs in gene therapy applications, particularly in treating diseases like diabetes, where precise gene regulation is essential. The experimental design involves culturing HEK293 cells, and once they reach approximately 70-80% confluence, cells were transfected with specific gRNAs targeting the NGN3 gene promoter. Specific gRNAs targeting the NGN3 promoter that was previously designed, incorporated into plasmid clone cassettes and introduced into HEK293 cells through co-transfection using pCAG-DDdCas9-VP192-EGFP transactivator. Post-transfection, cell viability, and fluorescence were monitored to assess transfection efficiency. RNA was extracted, converted to cDNA, and analyzed via qPCR to measure NGN3 expression levels. Results indicated that specific combinations of fewer gRNAs led to higher NGN3 activation compared to multiple gRNAs, challenging the assumption that more gRNAs result in synergistic gene activation. These findings suggest that optimized gRNA combinations can enhance gene therapy efficiency, potentially leading to more effective treatments for conditions like diabetes.

Keywords: CRISPR activation, Diabetes mellitus, gene therapy, guide RNA, Neurogenin3

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: derivatives, exchange traded products (ETP), financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange

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Authors: Shakila Singh

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This research was conducted at a selected South African university campus with women students who drink alcohol. The purpose of the study was to examine their perspectives on the role of alcohol in their lives, their understandings about women’s vulnerability to alcohol-related sexual risk and their strategies against these. The study draws on feminist principles and practices to challenge gendered inequalities that legitimate and facilitate violence against women. Recognising the danger of focusing on risk management in ways that place the burden of responsibility entirely on young women to prevent their violation, this article focuses on women students’ agency in managing risk while taking up opportunities for self-discovery. Participation was voluntary, and a student-researcher administered an open-ended questionnaire to 55 participants. The findings suggest that young women position alcohol- use as a common activity at university, and that it gives them much pleasure. They recognise that it is riskier for women and articulate valuable strategies to manage the risk to their sexual safety when drinking. These include drinking within supportive networks, avoiding financial dependence, and managing their alcohol intake. This article argues that alcohol at university is an integral part of expressions of gender and sexuality and that risk-taking is a normal part of university students’ lives. Consequently, arguments about equality need to consider risk-taking as part of young people’s lives and promote ways of managing alcohol-related risks, rather than imagining that alcohol can be avoided entirely.

Keywords: alcohol-related sexual risk, drinking at university, managing risk, women students

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: Abbas Sedighinejad, Hossein Khoshrang, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ashraf, Mostafa Saeedinia, Gelareh Biazar, Zahra Atrkarroushan, Mahdi Ajdadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an alarming attack broke out in China and spread rapidly worldwide. Objectives: Based on a theory indicating the correlation between some viral diseases and blood types, we investigated the relationship between blood groups and coronavirus infection risk in Guilan Province, Iran. Methods: Retrospectively, all the files of the admitted patients with suspected COVID-19, in peak conditions of the disease between March 1 and May 30, 2020, were reviewed using the Census method. The required data, including epidemiological and clinical information and outcomes, were obtained from electronic records. Results: A total of 249 cases were analyzed, of whom 109 were collected from governmental centers, and the rest were collected from private hospitals. The most common co-morbidity was diabetes with 71 (37.6%) cases and the main symptom at the admission time was dyspnea with 170 (24.5%) cases. Of the total patients, 155 (62.2%) were discharged, and the rest died. The most common blood group among our patients was O Rh-positive with 91 (36.5%) cases. No meaningful correlation was found between outcomes and blood groups in terms of ABO types (P = 0.89) or Rh factor (P = 0.456). The Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the general population (P = 0.038). Conclusions: We found that the Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the healthy individuals. However, no correlation was observed between the groups regarding ABO typing.

Keywords: ABO blood group, COVID 19, association, personal protection

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: A. M. Abd-Elfattah, M. H. Abu-Moussa

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In this paper, the estimation of stress-strength parameter R = P(Y < X) is considered when X; Y the strength and stress respectively are two independent random variables of Burr Type XII distribution. The samples taken for X and Y are progressively censoring of type II. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of R is obtained when the common parameter is unknown. But when the common parameter is known the MLE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) and the Bayes estimator of R = P(Y < X) are obtained. The exact condence interval of R based on MLE is obtained. The performance of the proposed estimators is compared using the computer simulation.

Keywords: Burr Type XII distribution, progressive type-II censoring, stress-strength model, unbiased estimator, maximum-likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, confidence intervals, Bayes estimator

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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1) Background It has been hypothesized that, in individuals with diabetes mellitus, the peripheral nerve is swollen due to sorbitol over-accumulation. Additionally growing evidence supported electro diagnostic study of diabetes induced neuropathy as a method having some challenges. 2) Objective To examine the performance of sonographic cross-sectional area (CSA) measurements in the diagnosis of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN). 3) Data Sources Electronic databases, comprising PubMed and EMBASE and Google scholar, were searched for the appropriate studies before Jan 1, 2020. 4) Study Selection Eleven trials comparing different peripheral nerve CSA measurements between participants with and without DPN were included. 5) Data Extraction Study design, participants' demographic characteristics, diagnostic reference of DPN, and evaluated peripheral nerves and methods of CSA measurement. 6) Data Synthesis Among different peripheral nerves, Tibial nerve diagnostic odds ratios pooled from five studies (713 participants) were 4.46 (95% CI, 0.35–8.57) and the largest one with P<0.0001, I²:64%. Median nerve CSA at wrist and mid-arm took second and third place with ORs= 2.82 (1.50-4.15), 2.02(0.26-3.77) respectively. The sensitivities and specificities pooled from two studies for Sural nerve were 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68–0.89), and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.53–0.74). Included studies for other nerves were limited to one study. The largest sensitivity was for Sural nerve and the largest specificity was for Tibial nerve. 7) Conclusions The peripheral nerves CSA measured by ultrasound imaging is useful for the diagnosis of DPN and is most significantly different between patients and participants without DPN at the Tibial nerve. Because the Tibial nerve CSA in healthy participants, at various locations, rarely exceeds 24 mm2, this value can be considered as a cutoff point for diagnosing DPN.

Keywords: diabetes, diagnosis, polyneuropathy, ultrasound

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Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour

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Purposes: The activation of coagulation in patients with cancer contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and may play a fundamental role in the host response to growing tumor’s. Patients with cancer are clearly at high risk for the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE), particularly during chemotherapy and surgery. This situation is aggravated by the use of venous access catheters and possibly growth factors. Methods: Data derived from large, randomized, controlled trials have been used to determine the true incidence of this complication of cancer and its treatment. The incidence based on the analyses of these randomized controlled trials varies from 1% for limited stage patients with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen to 60% for patients with any type of cancer who are subjected to orthopedic surgery and do not receive prophylactic therapy. Results: In view of the morbidity and mortality attributable to VTE in cancer, widespread utilization of prophylactic anticoagulation therapy, which has proven safe and effective in a variety of situations, should be considered. While migratory thrombophlebitis is a clear indicator of an underlying neoplasm, the risk of cancer in patients with the more typical form of VTE has been the subject of intense debate over recent years. Conclusion: Some investigators have suggested that the relative risk of being diagnosed with occult cancer within six months of an episode of VTE (particularly recurrent VTE) could be up to 10-fold. However, the cost-effectiveness of aggressive screening for cancer in patients with VTE has not yet been defined adequately.

Keywords: venous thromboembolism, malignancy, cancer, tumor, heparin

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Fengmei Li, Li Xu, Guoliang Xia

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Lysozyme is a catalytic enzyme that performs bacterial cell lysis by cleaving the β-1,4-glycosidic bond between N-acetylmuramic acid and N-acetylglucosamine of peptidoglycan in cell walls. In the present study, an invertebrate-type (i-type) lysozyme gene was cloned from Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis (designated as EsLysozyme) based on PCR-based rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) technology. The full-length cDNA of EsLysozyme was of 831 bp. SMART and SIGNALP 3.0 program analysis revealed that EsLysozyme contained a signal peptide and a destabilase domain. The five amino acid residues (Tyr63, Trp64, Tyr91, His110, Pro114) and the conserved motif GSLSCG(P/Y)FQI and CL(E/L/R/H)C(I/M)C in i-type lysozymes were also found in EsLysozyme. The high similarity of EsLysozyme with L. vannamei lysozymes and phylogenetic analysis suggested that EsLysozyme should be a new member of i-type lysozyme family.

Keywords: i-type lysozyme, Eriocheir sinensis, cloning, characterization

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Authors: Ouahiba Bechiri, Mostefa Abbessi

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In recent year, polyoxometallates are intensely being explored because of their applications as new materiels, structural aesthetics, catalysts, and biologically active compounds. heteropolyanions of general formulae [X2M18O62] n- (X= heteroatom, e.g. P, Si) and (M=W, Mo), known as Dawson-type anions, constitue a special class of polyoxometallate compounds. In this present work, cobalt substituted heteropolyanion Dawson-type [HP2W15Mo3CoO61] were synthesized and characterized by IR spectroscopy, 31 P NMR, cyclic voltammetry.

Keywords: heteropolyanions, nanomaterials, Dawson-type, characterization

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

Abstract:

When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

Procedia PDF Downloads 128