Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 23002

Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

15382 A 'German Europe' Emerged from the Euro Crisis: A Study through the Portuguese Quality Press

Authors: Ana Luísa Mouro

Abstract:

When the financial crisis exploded in 2008 in the United States, unleashed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and contaminated the economies of the European periphery, Germany appeared as the anchor of the stability of all European institutions and countries in difficulty. The solutions provided by the German government have triggered a deep political debate about the key position Germany has conquered at the heart of Europe - a new “German question” has been created. Some say Germany has achieved by peaceful means what was not able to get through military conquest - the domination of Europe – and many fear Germany’s economic power. This debate about the new role of Germany in Europe has received special attention in the European media and Portugal has not been the exception. The present study has been based on the survey, selection and critical analysis of news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the weekly Expresso and in the daily Público, between 2008 and 2015 (year of the 25th anniversary of Germany’s unification). The findings of this study will show the paradox of German power and its relevance for Europe’s future.

Keywords: Euro crises, German Europe, intercultural hermeneutics, Portuguese quality press

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
15381 A Multi-Output Network with U-Net Enhanced Class Activation Map and Robust Classification Performance for Medical Imaging Analysis

Authors: Jaiden Xuan Schraut, Leon Liu, Yiqiao Yin

Abstract:

Computer vision in medical diagnosis has achieved a high level of success in diagnosing diseases with high accuracy. However, conventional classifiers that produce an image to-label result provides insufficient information for medical professionals to judge and raise concerns over the trust and reliability of a model with results that cannot be explained. In order to gain local insight into cancerous regions, separate tasks such as imaging segmentation need to be implemented to aid the doctors in treating patients, which doubles the training time and costs which renders the diagnosis system inefficient and difficult to be accepted by the public. To tackle this issue and drive AI-first medical solutions further, this paper proposes a multi-output network that follows a U-Net architecture for image segmentation output and features an additional convolutional neural networks (CNN) module for auxiliary classification output. Class activation maps are a method of providing insight into a convolutional neural network’s feature maps that leads to its classification but in the case of lung diseases, the region of interest is enhanced by U-net-assisted Class Activation Map (CAM) visualization. Therefore, our proposed model combines image segmentation models and classifiers to crop out only the lung region of a chest X-ray’s class activation map to provide a visualization that improves the explainability and is able to generate classification results simultaneously which builds trust for AI-led diagnosis systems. The proposed U-Net model achieves 97.61% accuracy and a dice coefficient of 0.97 on testing data from the COVID-QU-Ex Dataset which includes both diseased and healthy lungs.

Keywords: multi-output network model, U-net, class activation map, image classification, medical imaging analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
15380 The Role of Time Management Skills in Academic Performance of the University Lecturers

Authors: Thuduwage Lasanthika Sajeevanie

Abstract:

Success is very important, and there are many factors affecting the success of any situation or a person. In Sri Lankan Context, it is hardly possible to find an empirical study relating to time management and academic success. Globally many organizations, individuals practice time management to be effective. Hence it is very important to examine the nature of time management practice. Thus this study will fill the existing gap relating to achieving academic success through proper time management practices. The research problem of this study is what is the relationship exist among time management skills and academic success of university lecturers in state universities. The objective of this paper is to identify the impact of time management skills for academic success of university lecturers. This is a conceptual study, and it was done through a literature survey by following purposive sampling technique for the selection of literature. Most of the studies have found that time management is highly related to academic performance. However, most of them have done on the academic performance of the students, and there were very few studies relating to academic performance of the university lecturers. Hence it can be further suggested to conduct a study relating to identifying the relationship between academic performance and time management skills of university lecturers.

Keywords: academic success, performance, time management skills, university lecturers

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15379 The Effect of Dark energy on Amplitude of Gravitational Waves

Authors: Jafar Khodagholizadeh

Abstract:

In this talk, we study the tensor mode equation of perturbation in the presence of nonzero $-\Lambda$ as dark energy, whose dynamic nature depends on the Hubble parameter $ H$ and/or its time derivative. Dark energy, according to the total vacuum contribution, has little effect during the radiation-dominated era, but it reduces the squared amplitude of gravitational waves (GWs) up to $60\%$ for the wavelengths that enter the horizon during the matter-dominated era. Moreover, the observations bound on dark energy models, such as running vacuum model (RVM), generalized running vacuum model (GRVM), and generalized running vacuum subcase (GRVS), are effective in reducing the GWs’ amplitude. Although this effect is less for the wavelengths that enter the horizon at later times, this reduction is stable and permanent.

Keywords: gravitational waves, dark energy, GW's amplitude, all stage universe

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15378 Behaviour of Model Square Footing Resting on Three Dimensional Geogrid Reinforced Sand Bed

Authors: Femy M. Makkar, S. Chandrakaran, N. Sankar

Abstract:

The concept of reinforced earth has been used in the field of geotechnical engineering since 1960s, for many applications such as, construction of road and rail embankments, pavements, retaining walls, shallow foundations, soft ground improvement and so on. Conventionally, planar geosynthetic materials such as geotextiles and geogrids were used as the reinforcing elements. Recently, the use of three dimensional reinforcements becomes one of the emerging trends in this field. So, in the present investigation, three dimensional geogrid is proposed as a reinforcing material. Laboratory scaled plate load tests are conducted on a model square footing resting on 3D geogrid reinforced sand bed. The performance of 3D geogrids in triangular and square pattern was compared with conventional geogrids and the improvement in bearing capacity and reduction in settlement and heave are evaluated. When single layer of reinforcement was placed at an optimum depth of 0.25B from the bottom of the footing, the bearing capacity of conventional geogrid reinforced soil improved by 1.85 times compared to unreinforced soil, where as 3D geogrid reinforced soil with triangular pattern and square pattern shows 2.69 and 3.05 times improvement respectively compared to unreinforced soil. Also, 3D geogrids performs better than conventional geogrids in reducing the settlement and heave of sand bed around the model footing.

Keywords: 3D reinforcing elements, bearing capacity, heavy, settlement

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15377 Thermal Characterization of Graphene Oxide-Epoxy Nanocomposites Produced by Aqueous Emulsion

Authors: H. A. Brandão Cordeiro, M. G. Bocardo, N. C. Penteado, V. T. de Moraes, S. M. Giampietri Lebrão, G. W. Lebrão

Abstract:

The present study desired to obtain a nanocomposite of epoxy resin reinforced with graphene oxide (OG), for aerospace application, produced by aqueous emulsion. It was obtained proof bodies with 0.00 wt%, 0.10 wt%, 0.25 wt% and 0.50 wt% in weight of nanoparticles, to check the influence of it in the final quality of the obtained product. The validation of the results was done by the application thermal characterization by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). It was seen that the nanocomposite reinforced with 0.10 wt% of OG showed the best results, the average glass transition temperature, at 2 °C, compared to the pure resin.

Keywords: aqueous emulsion, graphene, nanocomposites, thermal characterization

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15376 EMG Based Orthosis for Upper Limb Rehabilitation in Hemiparesis Patients

Authors: Nancy N. Sharmila, Aparna Mishra

Abstract:

Hemiparesis affects almost 80% of stroke patients each year. It is marked by paralysis or weakness on one half of the body. Our model provides both assistance and physical therapy for hemiparesis patients for swift recovery. In order to accomplish our goal a force is provided that pulls the forearm up (as in flexing the arm), and pushes the forearm down (as in extending the arm), which will also assist the user during ADL (Activities of Daily Living). The model consists of a mechanical component which is placed around the patient’s bicep and an EMG control circuit to assist patients in daily activities, which makes it affordable and easy to use. In order to enhance the neuromuscular system’s effectiveness in synchronize the movement, proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) concept is used. The EMG signals are acquired from the unaffected arm as an input to drive the orthosis. This way the patient is invigorated to use the orthosis for regular exercise.

Keywords: EMG, hemiparesis, orthosis, rehabilitation

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15375 A Ku/K Band Power Amplifier for Wireless Communication and Radar Systems

Authors: Meng-Jie Hsiao, Cam Nguyen

Abstract:

Wide-band devices in Ku band (12-18 GHz) and K band (18-27 GHz) have received significant attention for high-data-rate communications and high-resolution sensing. Especially, devices operating around 24 GHz is attractive due to the 24-GHz unlicensed applications. One of the most important components in RF systems is power amplifier (PA). Various PAs have been developed in the Ku and K bands on GaAs, InP, and silicon (Si) processes. Although the PAs using GaAs or InP process could have better power handling and efficiency than those realized on Si, it is very hard to integrate the entire system on the same substrate for GaAs or InP. Si, on the other hand, facilitates single-chip systems. Hence, good PAs on Si substrate are desirable. Especially, Si-based PA having good linearity is necessary for next generation communication protocols implemented on Si. We report a 16.5 to 25.5 GHz Si-based PA having flat saturated power of 19.5 ± 1.5 dBm, output 1-dB power compression (OP1dB) of 16.5 ± 1.5 dBm, and 15-23 % power added efficiency (PAE). The PA consists of a drive amplifier, two main amplifiers, and lump-element Wilkinson power divider and combiner designed and fabricated in TowerJazz 0.18µm SiGe BiCMOS process having unity power gain frequency (fMAX) of more than 250 GHz. The PA is realized as a cascode amplifier implementing both heterojunction bipolar transistor (HBT) and n-channel metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (NMOS) devices for gain, frequency response, and linearity consideration. Particularly, a body-floating technique is utilized for the NMOS devices to improve the voltage swing and eliminate parasitic capacitances. The developed PA has measured flat gain of 20 ± 1.5 dB across 16.5-25.5 GHz. At 24 GHz, the saturated power, OP1dB, and maximum PAE are 20.8 dBm, 18.1 dBm, and 23%, respectively. Its high performance makes it attractive for use in Ku/K-band, especially 24 GHz, communication and radar systems. This paper was made possible by NPRP grant # 6-241-2-102 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors.

Keywords: power amplifiers, amplifiers, communication systems, radar systems

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15374 Language Activation Theory: Unlocking Bilingual Language Processing

Authors: Leorisyl D. Siarot

Abstract:

It is conventional to see and hear Filipinos, in general, speak two or more languages. This phenomenon brings us to a closer look on how our minds process the input and produce an output with a specific chosen language. This study aimed to generate a theoretical model which explained the interaction of the first and the second languages in the human mind. After a careful analysis of the gathered data, a theoretical prototype called Language Activation Model was generated. For every string, there are three specialized banks: lexico-semantics, morphono-syntax, and pragmatics. These banks are interrelated to other banks of other language strings. As the bilingual learns more languages, a new string is replicated and is filled up with the information of the new language learned. The principles of the first and second languages' interaction are drawn; these are expressed in laws, namely: law of dominance, law of availability, law of usuality and law of preference. Furthermore, difficulties encountered in the learning of second languages were also determined.

Keywords: bilingualism, psycholinguistics, second language learning, languages

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15373 Destination Decision Model for Cruising Taxis Based on Embedding Model

Authors: Kazuki Kamada, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In Japan, taxi is one of the popular transportations and taxi industry is one of the big businesses. However, in recent years, there has been a difficult problem of reducing the number of taxi drivers. In the taxi business, mainly three passenger catching methods are applied. One style is "cruising" that drivers catches passengers while driving on a road. Second is "waiting" that waits passengers near by the places with many requirements for taxies such as entrances of hospitals, train stations. The third one is "dispatching" that is allocated based on the contact from the taxi company. Above all, the cruising taxi drivers need the experience and intuition for finding passengers, and it is difficult to decide "the destination for cruising". The strong recommendation system for the cruising taxies supports the new drivers to find passengers, and it can be the solution for the decreasing the number of drivers in the taxi industry. In this research, we propose a method of recommending a destination for cruising taxi drivers. On the other hand, as a machine learning technique, the embedding models that embed the high dimensional data to a low dimensional space is widely used for the data analysis, in order to represent the relationship of the meaning between the data clearly. Taxi drivers have their favorite courses based on their experiences, and the courses are different for each driver. We assume that the course of cruising taxies has meaning such as the course for finding business man passengers (go around the business area of the city of go to main stations) and course for finding traveler passengers (go around the sightseeing places or big hotels), and extract the meaning of their destinations. We analyze the cruising history data of taxis based on the embedding model and propose the recommendation system for passengers. Finally, we demonstrate the recommendation of destinations for cruising taxi drivers based on the real-world data analysis using proposing method.

Keywords: taxi industry, decision making, recommendation system, embedding model

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15372 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach in Prediction of Potential Water Pollution Across Different Land-Use Patterns

Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

Abstract:

Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

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15371 An Assessment of Floodplain Vegetation Response to Groundwater Changes Using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool Hydrological Model, Geographic Information System, and Machine Learning in the Southeast Australian River Basin

Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek N. Marasani, Gebiaw T. Ayele

Abstract:

The changing climate has degraded freshwater availability in Australia that influencing vegetation growth to a great extent. This study assessed the vegetation responses to groundwater using Terra’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil water content (SWC). A hydrological model, SWAT, has been set up in a southeast Australian river catchment for groundwater analysis. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly streamflow from 2001 to 2006 and 2007 to 2010, respectively. The SWAT simulated soil water content for 43 sub-basins and monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) were applied in the machine learning tool, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), using two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The assessment shows that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet seasons. The WEKA model generated high positive relationships (r = 0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between NDVI values of all vegetation in the sub-basins against soil water content (SWC), the groundwater flow (GW), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these responses were reduced by 36.8% (r = 0.48) and 13.6% (r = 0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. Although the rainfall pattern is highly variable in the study area, the summer rainfall is very effective for the growth of the grass vegetation type. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

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15370 Sweden’s SARS-CoV-2 Mitigation Failure as a Science and Solutions Principle Case Study

Authors: Dany I. Doughan, Nizam S. Najd

Abstract:

Different governments in today’s global pandemic are approaching the challenging and complex issue of mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus differently while simultaneously considering their national economic and operational bottom lines. One of the most notable successes has been Taiwan's multifaceted virus containment approach, which resulted in a substantially lower incidence rate compared to Sweden’s chief mitigation tactic of herd immunity. From a classic Swiss Cheese Model perspective, integrating more fail-safe layers of defense against the virus in Taiwan’s approach compared to Sweden’s meant that in Taiwan, the government did not have to resort to extreme measures like the national lockdown Sweden is currently contemplating. From an optimized virus spread mitigation solution development standpoint using the Solutions Principle, the Taiwanese and Swedish solutions were desirable economically by businesses that remained open and non-economically or socially by individuals who enjoyed fewer disruptions from what they considered normal before the pandemic. Out of the two, the Taiwanese approach was more feasible long-term from a workforce management and quality control perspective for healthcare facilities and their professionals who were able to provide better, longer, more attentive care to the fewer new positive COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the Taiwanese approach was more applicable as an overall model to emulate thanks in part to its short-term and long-term multilayered approach, which allows for the kind of flexibility needed by other governments to fully or partially adapt or adopt said, model. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, ignored the biochemical nature of the virus and relied heavily on short-term personal behavioral adjustments and conduct modifications, which are not as reliable as establishing required societal norms and awareness programs. The available international data on COVID-19 cases and the published governmental approaches to control the spread of the coronavirus support a better fit into the Solutions Principle of Taiwan’s Swiss Cheese Model success story compared to Sweden’s.

Keywords: coronavirus containment and mitigation, solutions principle, Swiss Cheese Model, viral mutation

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15369 Improved Regression Relations Between Different Magnitude Types and the Moment Magnitude in the Western Balkan Earthquake Catalogue

Authors: Anila Xhahysa, Migena Ceyhan, Neki Kuka, Klajdi Qoshi, Damiano Koxhaj

Abstract:

The seismic event catalog has been updated in the framework of a bilateral project supported by the Central European Investment Fund and with the extensive support of Global Earthquake Model Foundation to update Albania's national seismic hazard model. The earthquake catalogue prepared within this project covers the Western Balkan area limited by 38.0° - 48°N, 12.5° - 24.5°E and includes 41,806 earthquakes that occurred in the region between 510 BC and 2022. Since the moment magnitude characterizes the earthquake size accurately and the selected ground motion prediction equations for the seismic hazard assessment employ this scale, it was chosen as the uniform magnitude scale for the catalogue. Therefore, proxy values of moment magnitude had to be obtained by using new magnitude conversion equations between the local and other magnitude types to this unified scale. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue was considered the most authoritative for moderate to large earthquakes for moment magnitude reports; hence it was used as a reference for calibrating other sources. The best fit was observed when compared to some regional agencies, whereas, with reports of moment magnitudes from Italy, Greece and Turkey, differences were observed in all magnitude ranges. For teleseismic magnitudes, to account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used the exponential model for the derivation of the regression equations. The obtained regressions for the surface wave magnitude and short-period body-wave magnitude show considerable differences with Global Earthquake Model regression curves, especially for low magnitude ranges. Moreover, a conversion relation was obtained between the local magnitude of Albania and the corresponding moment magnitude as reported by the global and regional agencies. As errors were present in both variables, the Deming regression was used.

Keywords: regression, seismic catalogue, local magnitude, tele-seismic magnitude, moment magnitude

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15368 Impact Evaluation of Discriminant Analysis on Epidemic Protocol in Warships’s Scenarios

Authors: Davi Marinho de Araujo Falcão, Ronaldo Moreira Salles, Paulo Henrique Maranhão

Abstract:

Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTN) are an evolution of Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET) and work good in scenarioswhere nodes are sparsely distributed, with low density, intermittent connections and an end-to-end infrastructure is not possible to guarantee. Therefore, DTNs are recommended for high latency applications that can last from hours to days. The maritime scenario has mobility characteristics that contribute to a DTN network approach, but the concern with data security is also a relevant aspect in such scenarios. Continuing the previous work, which evaluated the performance of some DTN protocols (Epidemic, Spray and Wait, and Direct Delivery) in three warship scenarios and proposed the application of discriminant analysis, as a classification technique for secure connections, in the Epidemic protocol, thus, the current article proposes a new analysis of the directional discriminant function with opening angles smaller than 90 degrees, demonstrating that the increase in directivity influences the selection of a greater number of secure connections by the directional discriminant Epidemic protocol.

Keywords: DTN, discriminant function, epidemic protocol, security, tactical messages, warship scenario

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15367 Anaerobic Digestion of Green Wastes at Different Solids Concentrations and Temperatures to Enhance Methane Generation

Authors: A. Bayat, R. Bello-Mendoza, D. G. Wareham

Abstract:

Two major categories of green waste are fruit and vegetable (FV) waste and garden and yard (GY) waste. Although, anaerobic digestions (AD) is able to manage FV waste; there is less confidence in the conditions for AD to handle GY wastes (grass, leaves, trees and bush trimmings); mainly because GY contains lignin and other recalcitrant organics. GY in the dry state (TS ≥ 15 %) can be digested at mesophilic temperatures; however, little methane data has been reported under thermophilic conditions, where conceivably better methane yields could be achieved. In addition, it is suspected that at lower solids concentrations, the methane yield could be increased. As such, the aim of this research is to find the temperature and solids concentration conditions that produce the most methane; under two different temperature regimes (mesophilic, thermophilic) and three solids states (i.e. 'dry', 'semi-dry' and 'wet'). Twenty liters of GY waste was collected from a public park located in the northern district in Tehran. The clippings consisted of freshly cut grass as well as dry branches and leaves. The GY waste was chopped before being fed into a mechanical blender that reduced it to a paste-like consistency. An initial TS concentration of approximately 38 % was achieved. Four hundred mL of anaerobic inoculum (average total solids (TS) concentration of 2.03 ± 0.131 % of which 73.4% were volatile solid (VS), soluble chemical oxygen demand (sCOD) of 4.59 ± 0.3 g/L) was mixed with the GY waste substrate paste (along with distilled water) to achieve a TS content of approximately 20 %. For comparative purposes, approximately 20 liters of FV waste was ground in the same manner as the GY waste. Since FV waste has a much higher natural water content than GY, it was dewatered to obtain a starting TS concentration in the dry solid-state range (TS ≥ 15 %). Three samples were dewatered to an average starting TS concentration of 32.71 %. The inoculum was added (along with distilled water) to dilute the initial FV TS concentrations down to semi-dry conditions (10-15 %) and wet conditions (below 10 %). Twelve 1-L batch bioreactors were loaded simultaneously with either GY or FV waste at TS solid concentrations ranging from 3.85 ± 1.22 % to 20.11 ± 1.23 %. The reactors were sealed and were operated for 30 days while being immersed in water baths to maintain a constant temperature of 37 ± 0.5 °C (mesophilic) or 55 ± 0.5 °C (thermophilic). A maximum methane yield of 115.42 (L methane/ kg VS added) was obtained for the GY thermophilic-wet AD combination. Methane yield was enhanced by 240 % compared to the GY waste mesophilic-dry condition. The results confirm that high temperature regimes and small solids concentrations are conditions that enhance methane yield from GY waste. A similar trend was observed for the anaerobic digestion of FV waste. Furthermore, a maximum value of VS (53 %) and sCOD (84 %) reduction was achieved during the AD of GY waste under the thermophilic-wet condition.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, thermophilic, mesophilic, total solids concentration

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15366 Cost Efficiency of European Cooperative Banks

Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

Abstract:

This paper analyzes recent trends in cost efficiency of European cooperative banks using efficient frontier analysis. Our methodology is based on stochastic frontier analysis which is run on a set of 649 European cooperative banks using data between 2006 and 2015. Our results show that average inefficiency of European cooperative banks is increasing since 2008, smaller cooperative banks are significantly more efficient than the bigger ones over the whole time period and that share of net fee and commission income to total income surprisingly seems to have no impact on bank cost efficiency.

Keywords: cooperative banks, cost efficiency, efficient frontier analysis, stochastic frontier analysis, net fee and commission income

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15365 Possibilities to Evaluate the Climatic and Meteorological Potential for Viticulture in Poland: The Case Study of the Jagiellonian University Vineyard

Authors: Oskar Sekowski

Abstract:

Current global warming causes changes in the traditional zones of viticulture worldwide. During 20th century, the average global air temperature increased by 0.89˚C. The models of climate change indicate that viticulture, currently concentrating in narrow geographic niches, may move towards the poles, to higher geographic latitudes. Global warming may cause changes in traditional viticulture regions. Therefore, there is a need to estimate the climatic conditions and climate change in areas that are not traditionally associated with viticulture, e.g., Poland. The primary objective of this paper is to prepare methodology to evaluate the climatic and meteorological potential for viticulture in Poland based on a case study. Moreover, the additional aim is to evaluate the climatic potential of a mesoregion where a university vineyard is located. The daily data of temperature, precipitation, insolation, and wind speed (1988-2018) from the meteorological station located in Łazy, southern Poland, was used to evaluate 15 climatological parameters and indices connected with viticulture. The next steps of the methodology are based on Geographic Information System methods. The topographical factors such as a slope gradient and slope exposure were created using Digital Elevation Models. The spatial distribution of climatological elements was interpolated by ordinary kriging. The values of each factor and indices were also ranked and classified. The viticultural potential was determined by integrating two suitability maps, i.e., the topographical and climatic ones, and by calculating the average for each pixel. Data analysis shows significant changes in heat accumulation indices that are driven by increases in maximum temperature, mostly increasing number of days with Tmax > 30˚C. The climatic conditions of this mesoregion are sufficient for vitis vinifera viticulture. The values of indicators and insolation are similar to those in the known wine regions located on similar geographical latitudes in Europe. The smallest threat to viticulture in study area is the occurrence of hail and the highest occurrence of frost in the winter. This research provides the basis for evaluating general suitability and climatologic potential for viticulture in Poland. To characterize the climatic potential for viticulture, it is necessary to assess the suitability of all climatological and topographical factors that can influence viticulture. The methodology used in this case study shows places where there is a possibility to create vineyards. It may also be helpful for wine-makers to select grape varieties.

Keywords: climatologic potential, climatic classification, Poland, viticulture

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15364 Preparation of Fe, Cr Codoped TiO2 Nanostructure for Phenol Removal from Wastewaters

Authors: N. Nowzari-Dalini, S. Sabbaghi

Abstract:

Phenol is a hazardous material found in many industrial wastewaters. Photocatalytic degradation and furthermore catalyst doping are promising techniques in purpose of effective phenol removal, which have been studied comprehensively in this decade. In this study, Fe, Cr codoped TiO2 were prepared by sol-gel method, and its photocatalytic activity was investigated through degradation of phenol under visible light. The catalyst was characterized by XRD, SEM, FT-IR, BET, and EDX. The results showed that nanoparticles possess anatase phase, and the average size of nanoparticles was about 21 nm. Also, photocatalyst has significant surface area. Effect of experimental parameters such as pH, irradiation time, pollutant concentration, and catalyst concentration were investigated by using Design-Expert® software. 98% of phenol degradation was achieved after 6h of irradiation.

Keywords: doping, metals, sol-gel, titanium dioxide, wastewater

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15363 Cooling Profile Analysis of Hot Strip Coil Using Finite Volume Method

Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

Abstract:

Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

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15362 The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Bond Market

Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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15361 The Effect of Oil Price Uncertainty on Food Price in South Africa

Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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15360 Simulation of Wet Scrubbers for Flue Gas Desulfurization

Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Kim Sorensen, Thomas Condra

Abstract:

Wet scrubbers are used for flue gas desulfurization by injecting water directly into the flue gas stream from a set of sprayers. The water droplets will flow freely inside the scrubber, and flow down along the scrubber walls as a thin wall film while reacting with the gas phase to remove SO₂. This complex multiphase phenomenon can be divided into three main contributions: the continuous gas phase, the liquid droplet phase, and the liquid wall film phase. This study proposes a complete model, where all three main contributions are taken into account and resolved using OpenFOAM for the continuous gas phase, and MATLAB for the liquid droplet and wall film phases. The 3D continuous gas phase is composed of five species: CO₂, H₂O, O₂, SO₂, and N₂, which are resolved along with momentum, energy, and turbulence. Source terms are present for four species, energy and momentum, which are affecting the steady-state solution. The liquid droplet phase experiences breakup, collisions, dynamics, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, energy transfer and wall film interactions. Numerous sub-models have been implemented and coupled to realise the above-mentioned phenomena. The liquid wall film experiences impingement, acceleration, atomization, separation, internal chemistry, evaporation and condensation, species mass transfer, and energy transfer, which have all been resolved using numerous sub-models as well. The continuous gas phase has been coupled with the liquid phases using source terms by an approach, where the two software packages are couples using a link-structure. The complete CFD model has been verified using 16 experimental tests from an existing scrubber installation, where a gradient-based pattern search optimization algorithm has been used to tune numerous model parameters to match the experimental results. The CFD model needed to be fast for evaluation in order to apply this optimization routine, where approximately 1000 simulations were needed. The results show that the complex multiphase phenomena governing wet scrubbers can be resolved in a single model. The optimization routine was able to tune the model to accurately predict the performance of an existing installation. Furthermore, the study shows that a coupling between OpenFOAM and MATLAB is realizable, where the data and source term exchange increases the computational requirements by approximately 5%. This allows for exploiting the benefits of both software programs.

Keywords: desulfurization, discrete phase, scrubber, wall film

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15359 An Interaction Model of Communication Skills and Participation in Social Work among Youth

Authors: Mohd Yusri Ibrahim

Abstract:

Youth participation in social work is essential in social and community development. Although many studies have been conducted to identify the determinant of youth involvement, few studies were discussed interaction between communication skills and youth participation in volunteerism. This article will discuss a cross-sectional study that was conducted to identify the relationship between communication skills and youth participation in social work. The results were successfully developed an interaction model of communication skills as predictor to participation criteria among youth. Finally, the article was suggested several ways to encourage youth participation in community by developing their communication skill in various stages.

Keywords: youth, participation, communication skill, social work

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
15358 Formation of Nanostructured Surface Layers of a Material with TiNi-Based Shape Memory by Diffusion Metallization

Authors: Zh. M. Blednova, P. O. Rusinov

Abstract:

Results of research on the formation of the surface layers of a material with shape memory effect (SME) based on TiNi diffusion metallization in molten Pb-Bi under isothermal conditions in an argon atmosphere are presented. It is shown that this method allows obtaining of uniform surface layers in nanostructured state of internal surfaces on the articles of complex shapes with stress concentrators. Structure, chemical and phase composition of the surface layers provide a manifestation of TiNi shape memory. The average grain size of TiNi coatings ranges between 60 ÷ 160 nm.

Keywords: diffusion metallization, nikelid titanium surface layers, shape memory effect, nanostructures

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15357 Internet of Things Based Process Model for Smart Parking System

Authors: Amjaad Alsalamah, Liyakathunsia Syed

Abstract:

Transportation is an essential need for many people to go to their work, school, and home. In particular, the main common method inside many cities is to drive the car. Driving a car can be an easy job to reach the destination and load all stuff in a reasonable time. However, deciding to find a parking lot for a car can take a long time using the traditional system that can issue a paper ticket for each customer. The old system cannot guarantee a parking lot for all customers. Also, payment methods are not always available, and many customers struggled to find their car among a numerous number of cars. As a result, this research focuses on providing an online smart parking system in order to save time and budget. This system provides a flexible management system for both parking owner and customers by receiving all request via the online system and it gets an accurate result for all available parking and its location.

Keywords: smart parking system, IoT, tracking system, process model, cost, time

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15356 Retrospective Analysis of 142 Cases of Incision Infection Complicated with Sternal Osteomyelitis after Cardiac Surgery Treated by Activated PRP Gel Filling

Authors: Daifeng Hao, Guang Feng, Jingfeng Zhao, Tao Li, Xiaoye Tuo

Abstract:

Objective: To retrospectively analyze the clinical characteristics of incision infection with sternal osteomyelitis sinus tract after cardiac surgery and the operation method and therapeutic effect of filling and repairing with activated PRP gel. Methods: From March 2011 to October 2022, 142 cases of incision infection after cardiac surgery with sternal osteomyelitis sinus were retrospectively analyzed, and the causes of poor wound healing after surgery, wound characteristics, perioperative wound management were summarized. Treatment during operation, collection and storage process of autologous PRP before debridement surgery, PRP filling repair and activation method after debridement surgery, effect of anticoagulant drugs on surgery, postoperative complications and average wound healing time, etc.. Results: Among the cases in this group, 53.3% underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, 36.8% underwent artificial heart valve replacement, 8.2% underwent aortic artificial vessel replacement, and 1.7% underwent allogeneic heart transplantation. The main causes of poor incision healing were suture reaction, fat liquefaction, osteoporosis, diabetes, and metal allergy in sequence. The wound is characterized by an infected sinus tract. Before the operation, 100-150ml of PRP with 4 times the physiological concentration was collected separately with a blood component separation device. After sinus debridement, PRP was perfused to fill the bony defect in the middle of the sternum, activated with thrombin freeze-dried powder and calcium gluconate injection to form a gel, and the outer skin and subcutaneous tissue were sutured freely. 62.9% of patients discontinued warfarin during the perioperative period, and 37.1% of patients maintained warfarin treatment. There was no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative wound hematoma. The average postoperative wound healing time was 12.9±4.7 days, and there was no obvious postoperative complication. Conclusions: Application of activated PRP gel to fill incision infection with sternal osteomyelitis sinus after cardiac surgery has a less surgical injury and satisfactory and stable curative effect. It can completely replace the previously used pectoralis major muscle flap transplantation operation scheme.

Keywords: platelet-rich plasma, negative-pressure wound therapy, sternal osteomyelitis, cardiac surgery

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15355 Creativity and Innovation in a Military Unit of South America: Decision Making Process, Socio-Emotional Climate, Shared Flow and Leadership

Authors: S. da Costa, D. Páez, E. Martínez, A. Torres, M. Beramendi, D. Hermosilla, M. Muratori

Abstract:

This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.

Keywords: creativity, innovation, military, organization, teams

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15354 CFD Analysis of an Aft Sweep Wing in Subsonic Flow and Making Analogy with Roskam Methods

Authors: Ehsan Sakhaei, Ali Taherabadi

Abstract:

In this study, an aft sweep wing with specific characteristic feature was analysis with CFD method in Fluent software. In this analysis wings aerodynamic coefficient was calculated in different rake angle and wing lift curve slope to rake angle was achieved. Wing section was selected among NACA airfoils version 6. The sweep angle of wing is 15 degree, aspect ratio 8 and taper ratios 0.4. Designing and modeling this wing was done in CATIA software. This model was meshed in Gambit software and its three dimensional analysis was done in Fluent software. CFD methods used here were based on pressure base algorithm. SIMPLE technique was used for solving Navier-Stokes equation and Spalart-Allmaras model was utilized to simulate three dimensional wing in air. Roskam method is one of the common and most used methods for determining aerodynamics parameters in the field of airplane designing. In this study besides CFD analysis, an advanced aircraft analysis was used for calculating aerodynamic coefficient using Roskam method. The results of CFD were compared with measured data acquired from Roskam method and authenticity of relation was evaluated. The results and comparison showed that in linear region of lift curve there is a minor difference between aerodynamics parameter acquired from CFD to relation present by Roskam.

Keywords: aft sweep wing, CFD method, fluent, Roskam, Spalart-Allmaras model

Procedia PDF Downloads 494
15353 Climate Change Effects of Vehicular Carbon Monoxide Emission from Road Transportation in Part of Minna Metropolis, Niger State, Nigeria

Authors: H. M. Liman, Y. M. Suleiman A. A. David

Abstract:

Poor air quality often considered one of the greatest environmental threats facing the world today is caused majorly by the emission of carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. The principal air pollutant is carbon monoxide. One prominent source of carbon monoxide emission is the transportation sector. Not much was known about the emission levels of carbon monoxide, the primary pollutant from the road transportation in the study area. Therefore, this study assessed the levels of carbon monoxide emission from road transportation in the Minna, Niger State. The database shows the carbon monoxide data collected. MSA Altair gas alert detector was used to take the carbon monoxide emission readings in Parts per Million for the peak and off-peak periods of vehicular movement at the road intersections. Their Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates were recorded in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM). Bar chart graphs were plotted by using the emissions level of carbon dioxide as recorded on the field against the scientifically established internationally accepted safe limit of 8.7 Parts per Million of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. Further statistical analysis was also carried out on the data recorded from the field using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software and Microsoft excel to show the variance of the emission levels of each of the parameters in the study area. The results established that emissions’ level of atmospheric carbon monoxide from the road transportation in the study area exceeded the internationally accepted safe limits of 8.7 parts per million. In addition, the variations in the average emission levels of CO between the four parameters showed that morning peak is having the highest average emission level of 24.5PPM followed by evening peak with 22.84PPM while morning off peak is having 15.33 and the least is evening off peak 12.94PPM. Based on these results, recommendations made for poor air quality mitigation via carbon monoxide emissions reduction from transportation include Introduction of the urban mass transit would definitely reduce the number of traffic on the roads, hence the emissions from several vehicles that would have been on the road. This would also be a cheaper means of transportation for the masses and Encouraging the use of vehicles using alternative sources of energy like solar, electric and biofuel will also result in less emission levels as the these alternative energy sources other than fossil fuel originated diesel and petrol vehicles do not emit especially carbon monoxide.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, climate change emissions, road transportation, vehicular

Procedia PDF Downloads 364