Search results for: mixed effects models

Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: audit fee lagrange multiplier test, heteroscedasticity, lagrange multiplier test, Monte-Carlo scheme, periodicity

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Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

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When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

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Authors: Nodelman V.

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Despite serious difficulties in the assimilation of the conceptual system of Calculus, software in the educational process is used only occasionally, and even then, mainly for illustration purposes. The following are a few reasons: The non-trivial nature of the studied material, Lack of skills in working with software, Fear of losing time working with software, The variety of the software itself, the corresponding interface, syntax, and the methods of working with the software, The need to find suitable models, and familiarize yourself with working with them, Incomplete compatibility of the found models with the content and teaching methods of the studied material. This paper proposes an active use of the developed non-commercial software VusuMatica, which allows removing these restrictions through Broad support for the studied mathematical material (and not only Calculus). As a result - no need to select the right software, Emphasizing the unity of mathematics, its intrasubject and interdisciplinary relations, User-friendly interface, Absence of special syntax in defining mathematical objects, Ease of building models of the studied material and manipulating them, Unlimited flexibility of models thanks to the ability to redefine objects, which allows exploring objects characteristics, and considering examples and counterexamples of the concepts under study. The construction of models is based on an original approach to the analysis of the structure of the studied concepts. Thanks to the ease of construction, students are able not only to use ready-made models but also to create them on their own and explore the material studied with their help. The presentation includes examples of using VusuMatica in studying the concepts of limit and continuity of a function, its derivative, and integral.

Keywords: counterexamples, limitations and requirements, software, teaching and learning calculus, user-friendly interface and syntax

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Authors: S. K. Mohapatra, K. Ramanujam, S. Sankararaman

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Redox flow battery (RFB) is a preferred energy storage option for grid stabilisation and energy arbitrage as it offers energy and power decoupling. In contrast to aqueous RFBs (ARFBs), nonaqueous RFBs (NARFBs) could offer high energy densities due to the wider electrochemical window of the solvents used, which could handle high and low voltage organic redox couples without undergoing electrolysis. In this study, a RFB based on benzyl viologen hexafluorophosphate [BV(PF6)2] as anolyte and N-hexyl phenothiazine [HPT] as catholyte demonstrated. A cell operated with mixed electrolyte (1:1) containing 0.2 M [BV(PF₆)₂] and 0.2 M [HPT] delivered a coulombic efficiency (CE) of 95.3 % and energy efficiency (EE) 53%, with nearly 68.9% material utilisation at 40 mA cm-2 current density.

Keywords: non-aqueous redox flow battery, benzyl viologen, N-hexyl phenothiazine, mixed electrolyte

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Authors: H. Djebar, L. Khene, M. Boucenna, M. R. Djebar, M. N. Khebbeb, M. Djekoun

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Currently in toxicology, use of alternative models permits to understand the mechanisms of toxicity at different levels of cells. Objectives of our research concern the determination of NPs ZnO, TiO2, AlO2, and FeO2 effect on ciliate protist freshwater Paramecium sp and Helix aspersa. The result obtained show that NPs increased antioxidative enzyme activity like catalase, glutathione –S-transferase and level GSH. Also, cells treated with high concentrations of NPs showed a high level of MDA. In conclusion, observations from growth and enzymatic parameters suggest on one hand that treatment with NPs provokes an oxidative stress and on the other that snale and paramecium are excellent alternatives models for ecotoxicological studies.

Keywords: NPs, GST, catalase, GSH, MDA, toxicity, snale and paramecium

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Authors: Wannakarn Likitrattanaporn

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The purposes of this investigation were to investigate the effects of applying linguistic principles and teaching techniques in teaching English through experimenting the Adapted English Lessons and to determine the teachers’ opinions as well as students’ opinions towards the Adapted Lessons. The subjects of the study were 5 Thai teachers, who teach English, and 85 Grade 10 mixed-ability students at Triamudom Suksa Pattanakarn Ratchada School, Bangkok, Thailand. The research instruments included the Adapted English Lessons, questionnaires asking teachers’ and students’ opinions towards the Adapted Lessons and the informal interview. The data from the research instruments was collected and analyzed concerning the teachers’ and students’ opinions towards adapting linguistic principles and teaching techniques. Linguistic principles of minimal pair and articulatory phonetics and teaching techniques of mimicry-memorization; vocabulary substitution drills, language pattern drills, reading comprehension exercise, practicing listening, speaking and writing skill and communicative activities; informal talk and free writing are applied. The data was statistically compiled according to an arithmetic percentage. The results showed that the teachers and students have very highly positive opinions towards adapting linguistic principles for teaching and learning phonological accuracy. Teaching techniques provided in the Adapted English Lessons can be used efficiently in the classroom. The teachers and students have positive opinions towards them too.

Keywords: applying linguistic principles and teaching techniques, teachers’ and students’ opinions, teaching English, the adapted English lessons

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Authors: Mohd Noah A. Rahman, Afzaal H. Seyal, Norhafilah Bara

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Developing a software application using an interface with computers and peripheral devices using gestures of human body such as hand movements keeps growing in interest. A review on this hand gesture detection and recognition based on computer vision technique remains a very challenging task. This is to provide more natural, innovative and sophisticated way of non-verbal communication, such as sign language, in human computer interaction. Nevertheless, this paper explores hand detection and hand gesture recognition applying a vision based approach. The hand detection and recognition used skin color spaces such as HSV and YCrCb are applied. However, there are limitations that are needed to be considered. Almost all of skin color space models are sensitive to quickly changing or mixed lighting circumstances. There are certain restrictions in order for the hand recognition to give better results such as the distance of user’s hand to the webcam and the posture and size of the hand.

Keywords: hand detection, hand gesture, hand recognition, sign language

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Authors: Thirsa Sherry, Utkarsh Shrivastav, Kannan B. T., Iynthezhuton K.

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The field of aerodynamics and aeroacoustics remains one of the most poignant and well-researched fields of today. The current paper aims to investigate the predominant problem concerning the effects of noise of varying frequencies and waveforms on airflow surrounding an airfoil. Using a single speaker beneath the airfoil at different positions, we wish to simulate the effects of sound directly impinging on an airfoil and study its direct effects on airflow. We wish to study the same using smoke visualization methods with incense as our smoke-generating material in a variable-speed subsonic wind tunnel. Using frequencies and wavelengths similar to those of common engine noise, we wish to simulate real-world conditions of engine noise interfering with airflow and document the arising trends. These results will allow us to look into the real-world effects of noise on airflow and how to minimize them and expand on the possible relation between waveforms and noise. The parameters used in the study include frequency, Reynolds number, waveforms, angle of attack, and the effects on airflow when varying these parameters.

Keywords: engine noise, aeroacoustics, acoustic excitation, low speed

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Authors: Zihan Geng, L. Quentin Dixon

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It has been proposed that early bilingual experience confers a number of advantages in the development of executive control mechanisms. Although the literature provides empirical evidence for bilingual benefits, some studies also reported null or mixed results. To make sense of these contradictory findings, the current review synthesize recent empirical studies investigating bilingual effects on children’s executive function and attention control. The publication time of the studies included in the review ranges from 2010 to 2017. The key searching terms are bilingual, bilingualism, children, executive control, executive function, and attention. The key terms were combined within each of the following databases: ERIC (EBSCO), Education Source, PsycINFO, and Social Science Citation Index. Studies involving both children and adults were also included but the analysis was based on the data generated only by the children group. The initial search yielded 137 distinct articles. Twenty-eight studies from 27 articles with a total of 3367 participants were finally included based on the selection criteria. The selective studies were then coded in terms of (a) the setting (i.e., the country where the data was collected), (b) the participants (i.e., age and languages), (c) sample size (i.e., the number of children in each group), (d) cognitive outcomes measured, (e) data collection instruments (i.e., cognitive tasks and tests), and (f) statistic analysis models (e.g., t-test, ANOVA). The results show that the majority of the studies were undertaken in western countries, mainly in the U.S., Canada, and the UK. A variety of languages such as Arabic, French, Dutch, Welsh, German, Spanish, Korean, and Cantonese were involved. In relation to cognitive outcomes, the studies examined children’s overall planning and problem-solving abilities, inhibition, cognitive complexity, working memory (WM), and sustained and selective attention. The results indicate that though bilingualism is associated with several cognitive benefits, the advantages seem to be weak, at least, for children. Additionally, the nature of the cognitive measures was found to greatly moderate the results. No significant differences are observed between bilinguals and monolinguals in overall planning and problem-solving ability, indicating that there is no bilingual benefit in the cooperation of executive function components at an early age. In terms of inhibition, the mixed results suggest that bilingual children, especially young children, may have better conceptual inhibition measured in conflict tasks, but not better response inhibition measured by delay tasks. Further, bilingual children showed better inhibitory control to bivalent displays, which resembles the process of maintaining two language systems. The null results were obtained for both cognitive complexity and WM, suggesting no bilingual advantage in these two cognitive components. Finally, findings on children’s attention system associate bilingualism with heightened attention control. Together, these findings support the hypothesis of cognitive benefits for bilingual children. Nevertheless, whether these advantages are observable appears to highly depend on the cognitive assessments. Therefore, future research should be more specific about the cognitive outcomes (e.g., the type of inhibition) and should report the validity of the cognitive measures consistently.

Keywords: attention, bilingual advantage, children, executive function

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Authors: M. C. A. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto

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A long-term goal of sustainable forest management is a relatively stable source of wood and a stable forest age-class structure has become the goal of many forest management practices. In the absence of disturbances, this forest management goal could easily be achieved. However, in the face of recurring insect outbreaks and other disruptive processes forest planning becomes more difficult, requiring knowledge of the effects on the forest of a wide variety of environmental factors (e.g., habitat heterogeneity, fire size and frequency, harvesting, insect outbreaks, and age distributions). The association between distinct forest disturbances and the potential effect on forest dynamics is a complex matter, particularly when evaluated over time and at large scale, and is not well understood. However, gaining knowledge in this area is crucial for a sustainable forest management. Mathematical modeling is a tool that can be used to broader the understanding in this area. In this talk we will introduce mathematical models formulation incorporating the effect of insect outbreaks either as a single disturbance in the forest population dynamics or coupled with other disturbances: either wildfire or harvesting. The results and ecological insights will be discussed.

Keywords: age-structured forest population, disturbances interaction, harvesting insects outbreak dynamics, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Orsolya Horvath, Laszlo Deres, Krisztian Eros, Katalin Ordog, Tamas Habon, Balazs Sumegi, Kalman Toth, Robert Halmosi

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Introduction: Oxidative stress induces an imbalance in mitochondrial fusion and fission processes, finally leading to cell death. The two antioxidant molecules, BGP-15 and L2286 have beneficial effects on mitochondrial functions and on cellular oxidative stress response. In this work, we studied the effects of these compounds on the processes of mitochondrial quality control. Methods: We used H9c2 cardiomyoblast and isolated neonatal rat cardiomyocytes (NRCM) for the experiments. The concentration of stressors and antioxidants was beforehand determined with MTT test. We applied 1-Methyl-3-nitro-1-nitrosoguanidine (MNNG) in 125 µM, 400 µM and 800 µM concentrations for 4 and 8 hours on H9c2 cells. H₂O₂ was applied in 150 µM and 300 µM concentration for 0.5 and 4 hours on both models. L2286 was administered in 10 µM, while BGP-15 in 50 µM doses. Cellular levels of the key proteins playing role in mitochondrial dynamics were measured in Western blot samples. For the analysis of mitochondrial network dynamics, we applied electron microscopy and immunocytochemistry. Results: Due to MNNG treatment the level of fusion proteins (OPA1, MFN2) decreased, while the level of fission protein DRP1 elevated markedly. The levels of fusion proteins OPA1 and MNF2 increased in the L2286 and BGP-15 treated groups. During the 8 hour treatment period, the level of DRP1 also increased in the treated cells (p < 0.05). In the H₂O₂ stressed cells, administration of L2286 increased the level of OPA1 in both H9c2 and NRCM models. MFN2 levels in isolated neonatal rat cardiomyocytes raised considerably due to BGP-15 treatment (p < 0.05). L2286 administration decreased the DRP1 level in H9c2 cells (p < 0.05). We observed that the H₂O₂-induced mitochondrial fragmentation could be decreased by L2286 treatment. Conclusion: Our results indicated that the PARP-inhibitor L2286 has beneficial effect on mitochondrial dynamics during oxidative stress scenario, and also in the case of directly induced DNA damage. We could make the similar conclusions in case of BGP-15 administration, which, via reducing ROS accumulation, propagates fusion processes, this way aids preserving cellular viability. Funding: GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00049; GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00048; GINOP-2.3.3-15-2016-00025; EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00004; ÚNKP-17-4-I-PTE-209

Keywords: H9c2, mitochondrial dynamics, neonatal rat cardiomyocytes, oxidative stress

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Authors: Jiahui Song

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In order to predict or explain a complicated biological process, it is important first to construct mathematical models that can be used to yield analytical solutions. Through numerical simulation, mathematical model results can be used to test scenarios that might not be easily attained in a laboratory experiment, or to predict parameters or phenomena. High-intensity, nanosecond pulse electroporation has been a recent development in bioelectrics. The dynamic pore model can be achieved by including a dynamic aspect and a dependence on the pore population density into pore formation energy equation to analyze and predict such electroporation effects. For greater accuracy, with inclusion of atomistic details, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were also carried out during this study. Besides inducing pores in cells, external voltages could also be used in principle to modulate action potential generation in nerves. This could have an application in electrically controlled ‘pain management’. Also a simple model-based rate equation treatment of the various cellular bio-chemical processes has been used to predict the pulse number dependent cell survival trends.

Keywords: model, high-intensity, nanosecond, bioelectrics

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Authors: DRIS Mohammed El-Amine, BOUNIF Abdelhamid

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This paper considers an experimental and numerical investigation of variable density in axisymmetric turbulent free jets. Special attention is paid to the study of the scalar dissipation rate. In this case, dynamic field equations are coupled to scalar field equations by the density which can vary by the thermal effect (jet heating). The numerical investigation is based on the first and second order turbulence models. For the discretization of the equations system characterizing the flow, the finite volume method described by Patankar (1980) was used. The experimental study was conducted in order to evaluate dynamical characteristics of a heated axisymmetric air flow using the Laser Doppler Anemometer (LDA) which is a very accurate optical measurement method. Experimental and numerical results are compared and discussed. This comparison do not show large difference and the results obtained are in general satisfactory.

Keywords: Scalar dissipation rate, thermal effects, turbulent axisymmetric jets, second order modelling, Velocimetry Laser Doppler.

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Authors: Avijit Dey, Shyam S. Paul, Satbir S. Dahiya, Balbir S. Punia, Luciano A. Gonzalez

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Methane emitted from ruminant livestock not only reduces the efficiency of feed energy utilization but also contributes to global warming. Vegetable oils, a source of poly unsaturated fatty acids, have potential to reduce methane production and increase conjugated linoleic acid in the rumen. However, characteristics of oils, level of inclusion and composition of basal diet influences their efficacy. Therefore, this study was aimed to investigate the effects of sunflower (SFL) and cottonseed (CSL) oils on methanogenesis, volatile fatty acids composition and feed fermentation pattern by in vitro gas production (IVGP) test. Four concentrations (0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4ml /30ml buffered rumen fluid) of each oil were used. Fresh rumen fluid was collected before morning feeding from two rumen cannulated buffalo steers fed a mixed ration. In vitro incubation was carried out with sorghum hay (200 ± 5 mg) as substrate in 100 ml calibrated glass syringes following standard IVGP protocol. After 24h incubation, gas production was recorded by displacement of piston. Methane in the gas phase and volatile fatty acids in the fermentation medium were estimated by gas chromatography. Addition of oils resulted in increase (p<0.05) in total gas production and decrease (p<0.05) in methane production, irrespective of type and concentration. Although the increase in gas production was similar, methane production (ml/g DM) and its concentration (%) in head space gas was lower (p< 0.01) in CSL than in SFL at corresponding doses. Linear decrease (p<0.001) in degradability of DM was evident with increasing doses of oils (0.2ml onwards). However, these effects were more pronounced with SFL. Acetate production tended to decrease but propionate and butyrate production increased (p<0.05) with addition of oils, irrespective of type and doses. The ratio of acetate to propionate was reduced (p<0.01) with addition of oils but no difference between the oils was noted. It is concluded that both the oils can reduce methane production. However, feed degradability was also affected with higher doses. Cotton seed oil in small dose (0.1ml/30 ml buffered rumen fluid) exerted greater inhibitory effects on methane production without impeding dry matter degradability. Further in vivo studies need to be carried out for their practical application in animal ration.

Keywords: buffalo, methanogenesis, rumen fermentation, vegetable oils

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Authors: Raninder Kaur Dhillon, Mayur Jethwa, Hardeep Singh Rai

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Information technology has made a pivotal progress across disparate disciplines, one of which is AEC (Architecture, Engineering and Construction) industry. CAD is a form of computer-aided building modulation that architects, engineers and contractors use to create and view two- and three-dimensional models. The AEC industry also uses building information modeling (BIM), a newer computerized modeling system that can create four-dimensional models; this software can greatly increase productivity in the AEC industry. BIM models generate open source IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) files which aim for interoperability for exchanging information throughout the project lifecycle among various disciplines. The methods developed in previous studies require either an IFC schema or MVD and software applications, such as an IFC model server or a Building Information Modeling (BIM) authoring tool, to extract a partial or complete IFC instance model. This paper proposes an efficient algorithm for extracting a partial and total model from an Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) instance model without an IFC schema or a complete IFC model view definition (MVD).

Keywords: BIM, CAD, IFC, MVD

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Authors: Daniel Fulus Fom, Gau Patrick Damulak

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In this study, the Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) models were employed to model the forecasting performance of the daily turbidity flow of White Clay Creek (WCC). The two methods were applied to the log difference series of the daily turbidity flow series of WCC. The measurements of error employed to investigate the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA and JRNN models are the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The outcome of the investigation revealed that the forecasting performance of the JRNN technique is better than the forecasting performance of the ARFIMA technique in the mean square error sense. The results of the ARFIMA and JRNN models were obtained by the simulation of the models using MATLAB version 8.03. The significance of using the log difference series rather than the difference series is that the log difference series stabilizes the turbidity flow series than the difference series on the ARFIMA and JRNN.

Keywords: auto regressive, mean absolute error, neural network, root square mean error

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Wassie Molla, Klaas Frankena, Mart De Jong

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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle, which often occurs in epidemic form. It is caused by lumpy skin disease virus of the genus capripoxvirus of family poxviridae. Mathematical models play important role in the study of infectious diseases epidemiology. They help to explain the dynamics and understand the transmission of an infectious disease within a population. Understanding the transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease between animals is important for the implementation of effective prevention and control measures against the disease. This study was carried out in central and north-western part of Ethiopia with the objectives to understand LSD outbreak dynamics, quantify the transmission between animals and herds, and estimate the disease reproduction ratio in dominantly crop-livestock mixed and commercial herd types. Field observation and follow-up study were undertaken, and the transmission parameters were estimated based on a SIR epidemic model in which individuals are susceptible (S), infected and infectious (I), and recovered and immune or dead (R) using the final size and generalized linear model methods. The result showed that a higher morbidity was recorded in infected crop-livestock (24.1%) mixed production system herds than infected commercial production (17.5%) system herds whereas mortality was higher in intensive (4.0%) than crop-livestock (1.5%) system and the differences were statistically significant. The transmission rate among animals and between herds were 0.75 and 0.68 per week, respectively in dominantly crop-livestock production system. The transmission study undertaken in dominantly crop-livestock production system highlighted the presence of statistically significant seasonal difference in LSD transmission among animals. The reproduction numbers of LSD in dominantly crop-livestock production system were 1.06 among animals and 1.28 between herds whereas it varies from 1.03 to 1.31 among animals in commercial production system. Though the R estimated for LSD in different production systems at different localities is greater than 1, its magnitude is low implying that the disease can be easily controlled by implementing the appropriate control measures.

Keywords: commercial, crop-livestock, Ethiopia, LSD, reproduction number, transmission

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Authors: Orogun Daniel Oghenekevhwe

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Africa being an agrarian continent has an abundance of fruits that are both nutritional and medicinal. Regardless of the abundance of these healing elements, Africa leads the statistics of poor healthcare globally. Among others, there are two noticeable challenges in the healthcare system which are ‘Poor access and high cost of medical healthcare’. The effects of both the access and economic implications are (1) Low responsiveness and (2) High mortality rate. While the United Nations and the global health community continue to work towards reduced mortality rates and poor responsiveness to healthcare and wellness, this paper investigates how some Africans use the spiritual symbols of African fruits as responsive catalysts to embrace naturopathy thereby reducing the effects and impacts of poor healthcare challenges in Africa. The main argument is whether there are links between spiritual symbols and fruits that influence Africans' response to naturopathy and low-cost healthcare. Following that is the question of how medical healthcare responds to such development. Bitter Kola (Garcinia) is the case study fruit, and Sunnyside in Pretoria, South Africa, has been spotted as one of the high-traffic selling points of herbal fruits. A mixed research method is applicable with an expected 20 Quantitative data respondents among sellers and nutritionists and 50 Qualitative Data respondents among consumers. Based on the results, it should be clear how spirituality contributes to alternative healthcare and how it can be further encouraged to bridge the gap between the high demand and low supply of healthcare in Africa and beyond.

Keywords: spiritual symbols, naturopathy, African fruits, spirituality, healthcare

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Authors: Christina Wainikka, Besrat Tesfaye

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Several of the countries in the Baltic Sea region are ranked high in international innovations rankings, such as the Global Innovation Index and European Innovation Scoreboard. There are however some concerns in the performance of different countries. For example, there is a widely spread notion about “The Swedish Paradox”. Sweden is ranked high due to investments in R&D and patent activity, but the outcome is not as high as could be expected. SMEs in Sweden are also below EU average when it comes to registering intellectual property rights such as patents and trademarks. This study is concentrating on the protection of utility model. This intellectual property right does not exist in Sweden, but in for example Finland and Germany. The utility model protection is sometimes referred to as a “patent light” since it is easier to obtain than the patent protection but at the same time does cover technical solutions. In examining statistics on patent activities and activities in registering utility models it is clear that utility model protection is scarcely used in the countries that have the protection. In Germany 10 577 applications were made in 2021. In Finland there were 259 applications made in 2021. This can be compared with patent applications that were 58 568 in Germany in 2021 and 1 662 in Finland in 2021. In Sweden there has never been a protection for utility models. The only protection for technical solutions is patents and business secrets. The threshold for obtaining a patent is high, due to the legal requirements and the costs. The patent protection is there for often not chosen by SMEs in Sweden. This study examines whether the protection of utility models in other countries in the Baltic region provide SMEs in these countries with better options to protect their innovations. The legal methodology is comparative law. In order to study the effects of the legal differences statistics are examined and interviews done with SMEs from different industries.

Keywords: baltic sea region, comparative law, SME, utility model

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Authors: Elham Allahmoradi, Bahman Allahmoradi, Ali Bonyadi Naeini

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Complex systems have many aspects. A variety of methods have been developed to analyze these systems. The most efficient of these methods should not only be simple, but also provide useful and comprehensive information about many aspects of the system. Matrix methods are considered the most commonly methods used to analyze and design systems. Each matrix method can examine a particular aspect of the system. If these methods are combined, managers can access to more comprehensive and broader information about the system. This study was conducted in four steps. In the first step, a process model of a real project has been extracted through IDEF3. In the second step, activity levels have been attained by writing a process model in the form of a design structure matrix (DSM) and sorting it through triangulation algorithm (TA). In the third step, sub-processes have been obtained by writing the process model in the form of an interface structure matrix (ISM) and clustering it through cluster identification algorithm (CIA). In the fourth step, a mixed model has been developed to provide a unified picture of the project structure through the simultaneous presentation of activities and sub-processes. Finally, the paper is completed with a conclusion.

Keywords: integrated definition for process description capture (IDEF3) method, design structure matrix (DSM), interface structure matrix (ism), mixed matrix model, activity level, sub-process

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Authors: S.K. Bhandari, E. Veneklaas, L. McCaw, R. Mazanec, K. Whitford, M. Renton

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Eucalyptus marginata, E. diversicolor and Corymbia calophylla form widespread forests in south-west Western Australia (SWWA). These forests have economic and ecological importance, and therefore, tree growth and sustainable management are of high priority. This paper aimed to analyse and model the growth of these species at both stand and individual levels, but this presentation will focus on predicting the growth of E. Marginata at the individual tree level. More specifically, the study wanted to investigate how well individual E. marginata tree growth could be predicted by considering the diameter and height of the tree at the start of the growth period, and whether this prediction could be improved by also accounting for the competition from neighbouring trees in different ways. The study also wanted to investigate how many neighbouring trees or what neighbourhood distance needed to be considered when accounting for competition. To achieve this aim, the Pearson correlation coefficient was examined among competition indices (CIs), between CIs and dbh growth, and selected the competition index that can best predict the diameter growth of individual trees of E. marginata forest managed under different thinning regimes at Inglehope in SWWA. Furthermore, individual tree growth models were developed using simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, and linear mixed effect modelling approaches. Individual tree growth models were developed for thinned and unthinned stand separately. The developed models were validated using two approaches. In the first approach, models were validated using a subset of data that was not used in model fitting. In the second approach, the model of the one growth period was validated with the data of another growth period. Tree size (diameter and height) was a significant predictor of growth. This prediction was improved when the competition was included in the model. The fit statistic (coefficient of determination) of the model ranged from 0.31 to 0.68. The model with spatial competition indices validated as being more accurate than with non-spatial indices. The model prediction can be optimized if 10 to 15 competitors (by number) or competitors within ~10 m (by distance) from the base of the subject tree are included in the model, which can reduce the time and cost of collecting the information about the competitors. As competition from neighbours was a significant predictor with a negative effect on growth, it is recommended including neighbourhood competition when predicting growth and considering thinning treatments to minimize the effect of competition on growth. These model approaches are likely to be useful tools for the conservations and sustainable management of forests of E. marginata in SWWA. As a next step in optimizing the number and distance of competitors, further studies in larger size plots and with a larger number of plots than those used in the present study are recommended.

Keywords: competition, growth, model, thinning

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Authors: Cheikh Bamba Dione, Alla Lo, Elhadji Mamadou Nguer, Siley O. Ba

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In this paper, we propose two neural machine translation (NMT) systems (French-to-Wolof and Wolof-to-French) based on sequence-to-sequence with attention and transformer architectures. We trained our models on a parallel French-Wolof corpus of about 83k sentence pairs. Because of the low-resource setting, we experimented with advanced methods for handling data sparsity, including subword segmentation, back translation, and the copied corpus method. We evaluate the models using the BLEU score and find that transformer outperforms the classic seq2seq model in all settings, in addition to being less sensitive to noise. In general, the best scores are achieved when training the models on word-level-based units. For subword-level models, using back translation proves to be slightly beneficial in low-resource (WO) to high-resource (FR) language translation for the transformer (but not for the seq2seq) models. A slight improvement can also be observed when injecting copied monolingual text in the target language. Moreover, combining the copied method data with back translation leads to a substantial improvement of the translation quality.

Keywords: backtranslation, low-resource language, neural machine translation, sequence-to-sequence, transformer, Wolof

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Authors: Diana Islam, Juan Fang, Vito Fanelli, Bing Han, Julie Khang, Jianfeng Wu, Arthur S. Slutsky, Haibo Zhang

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Introduction: MSC delivery in preclinical models of ARDS has demonstrated significant improvements in lung function and recovery from acute injury. However, the role of MSC delivery in ARDS associated pulmonary fibrosis is not well understood. Some animal studies using bleomycin, asbestos, and silica-induced pulmonary fibrosis show that MSC delivery can suppress fibrosis. While other animal studies using radiation induced pulmonary fibrosis, liver, and kidney fibrosis models show that MSC delivery can contribute to fibrosis. Hypothesis: The beneficial and deleterious effects of MSC in ARDS are modulated by the lung microenvironment at the time of MSC delivery. Methods: To induce ARDS a two-hit mouse model of Hydrochloric acid (HCl) aspiration (day 0) and mechanical ventilation (MV) (day 2) was used. HCl and injurious MV generated fibrosis within 14-28 days. 0.5x106 mouse MSCs were delivered (via both intratracheal and intravenous routes) either in the active inflammatory phase (day 2) or during the remodeling phase (day 14) of ARDS (mouse fibroblasts or PBS used as a control). Lung injury accessed using inflammation score and elastance measurement. Pulmonary fibrosis was accessed using histological score, tissue collagen level, and collagen expression. In addition alveolar epithelial (E) and mesenchymal (M) marker expression profile was also measured. All measurements were taken at day 2, 14, and 28. Results: MSC delivery 2 days after HCl exacerbated lung injury and fibrosis compared to HCl alone, while the day 14 delivery showed protective effects. However in the absence of HCl, MSC significantly reduced the injurious MV-induced fibrosis. HCl injury suppressed E markers and up-regulated M markers. MSC delivery 2 days after HCl further amplified M marker expression, indicating their role in myofibroblast proliferation/activation. While with 14-day delivery E marker up-regulation was observed indicating their role in epithelial restoration. Conclusions: Early MSC delivery can be protective of injurious MV. Late MSC delivery during repair phase may also aid in recovery. However, early MSC delivery during the exudative inflammatory phase of HCl-induced ARDS can result in pro-fibrotic profiles. It is critical to understand the interaction between MSC and the lung microenvironment before MSC-based therapies are utilized for ARDS.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mesenchymal stem cells (MSC), hydrochloric acid (HCl), mechanical ventilation (MV)

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Authors: Javier Muro, Anja Linstadter, Florian Manner, Lisa Schwarz, Stephan Wollauer, Paul Magdon, Gohar Ghazaryan, Olena Dubovyk

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Monitoring the trade-off between biomass production and biodiversity in grasslands is critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can model grasslands’ characteristics with varying accuracies. However, studies often fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and evidence suggests that prediction models might be case specific. In this study, biomass production and biodiversity indices (species richness and Fishers’ α) are modeled in 150 grassland plots for three sites across Germany. These sites represent a North-South gradient and are characterized by distinct soil types, topographic properties, climatic conditions, and management intensities. Predictors used are derived from Sentinel-1 & 2 and a set of topoedaphic variables. The transferability of the models is tested by training and validating at different sites. The performance of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNN) is compared to a random forest algorithm. While biomass predictions across gradients and sites were acceptable (r2 0.5), predictions of biodiversity indices were poor (r2 0.14). DNN showed higher generalization capacity than random forest when predicting biomass across gradients and sites (relative root mean squared error of 0.5 for DNN vs. 0.85 for random forest). DNN also achieved high performance when using the Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data rather than different combinations of spectral indices, Sentinel-1 data, or topoedaphic variables, simplifying dimensionality. This study demonstrates the necessity of training biomass and biodiversity models using a broad range of environmental conditions and ensuring spatial independence to have realistic and transferable models where plot level information can be upscaled to landscape scale.

Keywords: ecosystem services, grassland management, machine learning, remote sensing

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Authors: Samiah Rehman, Kashmira J. Gohil

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Objective: Dracaena trifascaita extract (DTE) possesses strong antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties that play a vital role in the treatment of mental disorders like depression. The present study was designed to evaluate the antidepressant effects of hydroalcoholic extracts of DT on behavioral models of depression. Methodology: Animals were randomly divided into 6 groups of 5 each: Group 1 and 2 received distilled water and standard drug, imipramine: 25mg/kg, respectively. Groups 4, 5 and 6 received DTE treatment orally at doses of 200 ,400 and 600mg/ kg, respectively, for 14 days. Time of immobility was noted by force swimming test (FST)and tail suspension test (TST) on the 1st,7th and 14th days. Results: The time of immobility was reduced in the treatment group as compared to the control and standard. DTE600 mg/kg showed the highest and most significant antidepressant effects as compared to the standard drug imipramine. (25mg/kg). Conclusion: DTE has good potential as an alternative therapy for depression.

Keywords: Dracaena trifasciata, antidepressants, force swimming test, tail suspension test, herbal drug of depression

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Authors: Lidiia Nazarenko, Henryk Stolarski, Holm Altenbach

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In the paper, a (hierarchical) approach to analysis of thermo-elastic properties of random composites with interphases is outlined and illustrated. It is based on the statistical homogenization method – the method of conditional moments – combined with recently introduced notion of the energy-equivalent inhomogeneity which, in this paper, is extended to include thermal effects. After exposition of the general principles, the approach is applied in the investigation of the effective thermo-elastic properties of a material with randomly distributed nanoparticles. The basic idea of equivalent inhomogeneity is to replace the inhomogeneity and the surrounding it interphase by a single equivalent inhomogeneity of constant stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal expansion, combining thermal and elastic properties of both. The equivalent inhomogeneity is then perfectly bonded to the matrix which allows to analyze composites with interphases using techniques devised for problems without interphases. From the mechanical viewpoint, definition of the equivalent inhomogeneity is based on Hill’s energy equivalence principle, applied to the problem consisting only of the original inhomogeneity and its interphase. It is more general than the definitions proposed in the past in that, conceptually and practically, it allows to consider inhomogeneities of various shapes and various models of interphases. This is illustrated considering spherical particles with two models of interphases, Gurtin-Murdoch material surface model and spring layer model. The resulting equivalent inhomogeneities are subsequently used to determine effective thermo-elastic properties of randomly distributed particulate composites. The effective stiffness tensor and coefficient of thermal extension of the material with so defined equivalent inhomogeneities are determined by the method of conditional moments. Closed-form expressions for the effective thermo-elastic parameters of a composite consisting of a matrix and randomly distributed spherical inhomogeneities are derived for the bulk and the shear moduli as well as for the coefficient of thermal expansion. Dependence of the effective parameters on the interphase properties is included in the resulting expressions, exhibiting analytically the nature of the size-effects in nanomaterials. As a numerical example, the epoxy matrix with randomly distributed spherical glass particles is investigated. The dependence of the effective bulk and shear moduli, as well as of the effective thermal expansion coefficient on the particle volume fraction (for different radii of nanoparticles) and on the radius of nanoparticle (for fixed volume fraction of nanoparticles) for different interphase models are compared to and discussed in the context of other theoretical predictions. Possible applications of the proposed approach to short-fiber composites with various types of interphases are discussed.

Keywords: effective properties, energy equivalence, Gurtin-Murdoch surface model, interphase, random composites, spherical equivalent inhomogeneity, spring layer model

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Authors: Stuart Bradley, Mathew Legg, Lilyan Panton

Abstract:

Ultrasonic remote sensing is a useful tool for assessing the interior structure of complex targets. For these methods, significantly enhanced spatial resolution is obtained if the pulse is coded, for example using a linearly changing frequency during the pulse duration. Such pulses have a time-dependent spectral structure. Interpretation of the backscatter from targets is, therefore, complicated if the scattering is frequency-dependent. While analytic models are well established for steady sinusoidal excitations applied to simple shapes such as spheres, such models do not generally exist for temporally evolving excitations. Therefore, models are developed in the current paper for handling such signals so that the properties of the targets can be quantitatively evaluated while maintaining very high spatial resolution. Laboratory measurements on simple shapes are used to confirm the validity of the models.

Keywords: linear FM chirp, time-dependent acoustic scattering, ultrasonic remote sensing, ultrasonic scattering

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