Search results for: Bourgoyne and Young model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18632

Search results for: Bourgoyne and Young model

17912 Study of the Protection of Induction Motors

Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

Procedia PDF Downloads 432
17911 Dynamic Model of Heterogeneous Markets with Imperfect Information for the Optimization of Company's Long-Time Strategy

Authors: Oleg Oborin

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
17910 Life Prediction Method of Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Grey Support Vector Machines

Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

Abstract:

As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines.For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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17909 Social Construction of Merantau in Minangkabau Society in Capital City of Indonesia, Jakarta

Authors: Arfan Fadli, Marini Kristina Situmeang, Mukhammad Fatkhullah, Siti Hazar Sitorus

Abstract:

Merantau is one of the traditions that has been done by the Minangkabau tribe since the 15th century where it is based on socio-economic factors. In fact, that is not only limited to economic factors alone but more how to develop themselves through the experience to get the skills or education. The lack of jobs opportunity in the hometown causes the community, especially for young men to seek livelihoods in other areas. Unemployment impacts on the economy of the community that led to change in the pattern of employment from farmers to traders or new businesses in areas outside of their homeland. This is also worsened because many young people are not interested in becoming a farmer and working on the land in their village. In this context, merantau is considered to be an alternative to fulfilling livelihoods, and therefore this study examines how the merantau tradition constructed by the Minangkabau community, West Sumatera Province. The research method is done by literature review by collecting information related to the social construction of merantau tradition from various scientific publications. The results show how merantau becomes a solution of economic problems for Minangkabau society. Merantau which has now become an institutionalized tradition for the Minangkabau community where the culture of merantau occurred like a chain that can raise the people from the condition of poverty. When there are people who have successfully in merantau, they tend to bring other relatives who have not found a job to be able to trade with them. In the place of merantau, they will be disciplined to learn how to trade. Eventually, they will have new skills to trade and even make their own business. The tradition of bringing relatives to the rantau to be empowered is a unique side of merantau because it is influenced by the Matrilinear kinship system. The matrilineal kinship system in Minangkabau is the largest in the world where helping relatives are considered to be of the highest value. This system also places men as high positions where men should be encouraged to go abroad for financial success and to help their relatives in their hometown. The success of this tradition (to uplift and resolve the poverty and manpower issues) is demonstrated by the tradition of Minangkabau communities that have been successful in the area of Rantau that send money to their relatives in their homes (remittance). Merantau tradition can also be an alternative in reducing unemployment especially for young people where it is demonstrated by the culture of helping relatives to get work outside of their homeland.

Keywords: matrilineal kinship system, merantau, minangkabau community, reducing unemployment

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17908 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

Procedia PDF Downloads 295
17907 Simplified 3R2C Building Thermal Network Model: A Case Study

Authors: S. M. Mahbobur Rahman

Abstract:

Whole building energy simulation models are widely used for predicting future energy consumption, performance diagnosis and optimum control.  Black box building energy modeling approach has been heavily studied in the past decade. The thermal response of a building can also be modeled using a network of interconnected resistors (R) and capacitors (C) at each node called R-C network. In this study, a model building, Case 600, as described in the “Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Program”, ASHRAE standard 140, is studied along with a 3R2C thermal network model and the ASHRAE clear sky solar radiation model. Although building an energy model involves two important parts of building component i.e., the envelope and internal mass, the effect of building internal mass is not considered in this study. All the characteristic parameters of the building envelope are evaluated as on Case 600. Finally, monthly building energy consumption from the thermal network model is compared with a simple-box energy model within reasonable accuracy. From the results, 0.6-9.4% variation of monthly energy consumption is observed because of the south-facing windows.

Keywords: ASHRAE case study, clear sky solar radiation model, energy modeling, thermal network model

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17906 Maturity Model for Agro-Industrial Logistics

Authors: Erika Tatiana Ruiz, Wilson Adarme Jaimes

Abstract:

This abstract presents the methodology for improving the logistics processes of agricultural production units belonging to the coffee, cocoa, and fruit sectors, starting from the fundamental concepts and detailing each of the phases to carry out the diagnosis, which will be the basis for the formulation of its action plan and implementation of the maturity model. As a result of this work, the maturity model is formulated to improve logistics processes. This model seeks to: generate a progressive model that is useful for all productive units belonging to these sectors at the national level, regardless of their initial conditions, focus on the improvement of logistics processes as a strategy that contributes to improving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in Colombia and spread the implementation of good logistics practices in postharvest in all departments of the country through autonomous tools. This model has been built through a series of steps that allow the evaluation and improvement of the logistics dimensions or indicators. The potential improvements for each dimension provide the foundation on which to advance to the next level. Within the maturity model, a methodology is indicated for the design and execution of strategies to improve its logistics processes, taking into account the current state of each production unit.

Keywords: agroindustrial, characterization, logistics, maturity model, processes

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17905 Determinants of Contraceptive Demand among Young Nulliparous Women in India: Evidence from National Family Health Survey-4

Authors: Bhawna Verma

Abstract:

Looking at the contraceptive use and unmet need specific to the different age groups would help to understand various determinants and characteristics of women from different age groups, which are often being neglected. The study explores contraceptive behavior, unmet need for family planning and its correlates among young nulliparous women aged 15-29, using data from NFHS-4 (2015-16), India. Method: The study utilized information from 26,924 currently married women, who has no child or who have had first terminated pregnancy and was aged 15-29 at the time of the survey. Chi-Square and logistic regression analysis have been used to assess the effects of socio-economic characteristics. Results: Of all the considered explanatory variables religion, caste, education, current age, age at marriage, media exposure and regional differences were found to be significantly affecting the behavior of contraceptive use. Women of the 25-29 age group are 0.6 percent less likely to have an unmet need than women of 12-19 age group. Unmet need is increasing with the increased level of education. Muslim women are 0.3 percent less likely to have an unmet need than women of Hindu category. Conclusion: Separate considerations must be given to the needs for family planning formation among nulliparous women along with the factors associated with the use and non-use of contraceptives among them. Separate considerations must be given for effective promotion of FP knowledge through print, electronic media, towards the unequal access to the contraceptives among nulliparous women. Marriages after legal minimum age and encouraging women for higher education may address existing socio-economic barriers.

Keywords: contraceptive use, unmet need, family planning, contraceptive behavior

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17904 Starlink Satellite Collision Probability Simulation Based on Simplified Geometry Model

Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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17903 Effect of Kenaf Fibres on Starch-Grafted-Polypropylene Biopolymer Properties

Authors: Amel Hamma, Allesandro Pegoretti

Abstract:

Kenaf fibres, with two aspect ratios, were melt compounded with two types of biopolymers named starch grafted polypropylene, and then blends compression molded to form plates of 1 mm thick. Results showed that processing induced variation of fibres length which is quantified by optical microscopy observations. Young modulus, stress at break and impact resistance values of starch-grafted-polypropylenes were remarkably improved by kenaf fibres for both matrixes and demonstrated best values when G906PJ were used as matrix. These results attest the good interfacial bonding between the matrix and fibres even in the absence of any interfacial modification. Vicat Softening Point and storage modules were also improved due to the reinforcing effect of fibres. Moreover, short-term tensile creep tests have proven that kenaf fibres remarkably improve the creep stability of composites. The creep behavior of the investigated materials was successfully modeled by the four parameters Burgers model.

Keywords: creep behaviour, kenaf fibres, mechanical properties, starch-grafted-polypropylene

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17902 Modeling and Validation of Microspheres Generation in the Modified T-Junction Device

Authors: Lei Lei, Hongbo Zhang, Donald J. Bergstrom, Bing Zhang, K. Y. Song, W. J. Zhang

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for a modified T-junction device for microspheres generation. The numerical model is developed using a commercial software package: COMSOL Multiphysics. In order to test the accuracy of the numerical model, multiple variables, such as the flow rate of cross-flow, fluid properties, structure, and geometry of the microdevice are applied. The results from the model are compared with the experimental results in the diameter of the microsphere generated. The comparison shows a good agreement. Therefore the model is useful in further optimization of the device and feedback control of microsphere generation if any.

Keywords: CFD modeling, validation, microsphere generation, modified T-junction

Procedia PDF Downloads 698
17901 Modeling User Context Using CEAR Diagram

Authors: Ravindra Dastikop, G. S. Thyagaraju, U. P. Kulkarni

Abstract:

Even though the number of context aware applications is increasing day by day along with the users, till today there is no generic programming paradigm for context aware applications. This situation could be remedied by design and developing the appropriate context modeling and programming paradigm for context aware applications. In this paper, we are proposing the static context model and metrics for validating the expressiveness and understandability of the model. The proposed context modeling is a way of describing a situation of user using context entities , attributes and relationships .The model which is an extended and hybrid version of ER model, ontology model and Graphical model is specifically meant for expressing and understanding the user situation in context aware environment. The model is useful for understanding context aware problems, preparing documentation and designing programs and databases. The model makes use of context entity attributes relationship (CEAR) diagram for representation of association between the context entities and attributes. We have identified a new set of graphical notations for improving the expressiveness and understandability of context from the end user perspective .

Keywords: user context, context entity, context entity attributes, situation, sensors, devices, relationships, actors, expressiveness, understandability

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17900 Spatially Downscaling Land Surface Temperature with a Non-Linear Model

Authors: Kai Liu

Abstract:

Remote sensing-derived land surface temperature (LST) can provide an indication of the temporal and spatial patterns of surface evapotranspiration (ET). However, the spatial resolution achieved by existing commonly satellite products is ~1 km, which remains too coarse for ET estimations. This paper proposed a model that can disaggregate coarse resolution MODIS LST at 1 km scale to fine spatial resolutions at the scale of 250 m. Our approach attempted to weaken the impacts of soil moisture and growing statues on LST variations. The proposed model spatially disaggregates the coarse thermal data by using a non-linear model involving Bowen ratio, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photochemical reflectance index (PRI). This LST disaggregation model was tested on two heterogeneous landscapes in central Iowa, USA and Heihe River, China, during the growing seasons. Statistical results demonstrated that our model achieved better than the two classical methods (DisTrad and TsHARP). Furthermore, using the surface energy balance model, it was observed that the estimated ETs using the disaggregated LST from our model were more accurate than those using the disaggregated LST from DisTrad and TsHARP.

Keywords: Bowen ration, downscaling, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature

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17899 Communication Styles of Business Students: A Comparison of Four National Cultures

Authors: Tiina Brandt, Isaac Wanasika

Abstract:

Culturally diverse global companies need to understand cultural differences between leaders and employees from different backgrounds. Communication is culturally contingent and has a significant impact on effective execution of leadership goals. The awareness of cultural variations related to communication and interactions will help leaders modify their own behavior, and consequently improve the execution of goals and avoid unnecessary faux pas. Our focus is on young adults that have experienced cultural integration, culturally diverse surroundings in schools and universities, and cultural travels. Our central research problem is to understand the impact of different national cultures on communication. We focus on four countries with distinct national cultures and spatial distribution. The countries are Finland, Indonesia, Russia and USA. Our sample is based on business students (n = 225) from various backgrounds in the four countries. Their responses of communication and leadership styles were analyzed using ANOVA and post-hoc test. Results indicate that culture impacts on communication behavior. Even young culturally-exposed adults with cultural awareness and experience demonstrate cultural differences in their behavior. Apparently, culture is a deeply seated trait that cannot be completely neutralized by environmental variables. Our study offers valuable input for leadership training programs and for expatriates when recognizing specific differences on leaders’ behavior due to culture.

Keywords: communication, culture, interaction, leadership

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17898 The Effect of Goal Setting on Psychological Status and Freestyle Swimming Performance in Young Competitive Swimmers

Authors: Sofiene Amara, Mohamed Ali Bahri, Sabri Gaied Chortane

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of personal goal setting on psychological parameters (cognitive anxiety, somatic anxiety, and self-confidence) and the 50m freestyle performance. 30 young swimmers participated in this investigation, and was divided into three groups, the first group (G1, n = 10, 14 ± 0.7 years old) was prepared for the competition without a fixed target (method 1), the second group (G2, n = 10, 14 ± 0.9 years old) was oriented towards a vague goal 'Do your best' (method 2), while the third group (G3, n = 10, 14 ± 0, 5 years old) was invited to answer a goal that is difficult to reach according to a goal-setting interval (GST) (method 3). According to the statistical data of the present investigation, the cognitive and somatic anxiety scores in G1 and G3 were higher than in G2 (G1-G2, G3-G2: cognitive anxiety, P = 0.000, somatic anxiety: P = 0.000 respectively). On the other hand, the self-confidence score was lower in G1 compared with the other two groups (G1-G2, G3-G2: P = 0.02, P = 0.03 respectively). Our assessment also shows that the 50m freestyle time performance was improved better by method 3 (pre and post-Test: P = 0.006, -2.5sec, 7.83%), than by method 2 (pre and Post-Test: P = 0.03; -1sec; 3.24%), while, performance remained unchanged in G1 (P > 0.05). To conclude, the setting of a difficult goal by GST is more effective to improve the chronometric performance in the 50m freestyle, but at the same time increased the values ​​of the cognitive and somatic anxiety. For this, the mental trainers and the staff technical, invited to develop models of mental preparation associated with this method of setting a goal to help swimmers on the psychological level.

Keywords: cognitive anxiety, goal setting, performance of swimming freestyle, self-confidence, somatic anxiety

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17897 The Effectiveness of Anti-Smoking Campaign towards Young Adults (A Case Study in Bandar Sunway Institution)

Authors: Intan Abida Abu Bakar

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effectiveness of anti-smoking campaign towards youth in Bandar Sunway institution. Based from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia and the national newspapers in the country reveal that the campaigns were not effective enough to curb smoking in Malaysia. In the past, from the year 2004 to 2014, the Malaysian Health Ministry were determined to curb the smoking issue that were arising in the country especially among the youths. “Tak Nak” smoking campaign was launched and broadcast on all forms of media in Malaysia. The campaigns are to educate and create an awareness to encourage people to quit smoking besides discourage non-smokers from starting to smoke. The main objective of this research is to investigate and study the concept, storyline and appeal of ‘Tak Nak Merokok’ advertisement campaigns from 2004 to 2014. Data from questionnaires and focus group discussions indicate that the advertisement contained fear and emotional appeal with good concept and storyline are more appealing and effective compared to the humour and informational rational appeal. This research could be a guideline for advertisers who want to come up with creative anti-smoking campaigns in Malaysia. In the future, the focus group can be expanded and more feedbacks and reviews could contribute to marketers and advertisers to determine the most suitable advertisements to tackle this smoking issue.

Keywords: effectiveness, anti-smoking campaign, young adults, smoking

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17896 A Strategic Partner Evaluation Model for the Project Based Enterprises

Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han

Abstract:

The optimal partner selection is one of the most important factors to pursue the project’s success. However, in practice, there is a gaps in perception of success depending on the role of the enterprises for the projects. This frequently makes a relations between the partner evaluation results and the project’s final performances, insufficiently. To meet this challenges, this study proposes a strategic partner evaluation model considering the perception gaps between enterprises. A total 3 times of survey was performed; factor selection, perception gap analysis, and case application. After then total 8 factors are extracted from independent sample t-test and Borich model to set-up the evaluation model. Finally, through the case applications, only 16 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 22 “Good” grade from existing model. On the contrary, 12 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 19 “Bad” grade from existing model. Consequently, the perception gaps based evaluation model is expected to improve the decision making quality and also enhance the probability of project’s success.

Keywords: partner evaluation model, project based enterprise, decision making, perception gap, project performance

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17895 A Super-Efficiency Model for Evaluating Efficiency in the Presence of Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

Abstract:

In many cases, there is a time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. Multi-periods input(MpI) and Multi-periods output(MpO) models are integrated models to calculate simple efficiency considering time lag effect. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. That is, efficient DMUs can’t be discriminated because their efficiency scores are same. Thus, this paper suggests a super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect based on the MpO model. A case example using a long-term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, super-efficiency, time lag, multi-periods input

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17894 The Social Model of Disability and Disability Rights: Defending a Conceptual Alignment between the Social Model’s Concept of Disability and the Nature of Rights and Duties

Authors: Adi Goldiner

Abstract:

Historically, the social model of disability has played a pivotal role in bringing rights discourse into the disability debate. Against this backdrop, the paper explores the conceptual alignment between the social model’s account of disability and the nature of rights. Specifically, the paper examines the possibility that the social model conceptualizes disability in a way that aligns with the nature of rights and thus motivates the invocation of disability rights. Methodologically, the paper juxtaposes the literature on the social model of disability, primarily the work of the Union of the Physically Impaired Against Segregation in the UK and related scholarship, with theories of moral rights. By focusing on the interplay between the social model of disability and rights, the paper provides a conceptual explanation for the rise of disability rights. In addition, the paper sheds light on the nature of rights, their function and limitations, in the context of disability rights. The paper concludes that the social model’s conceptualization of disability is hospitable to rights, because it opens up the possibility that there are duties that correlate with disability rights. Under the social model, disability is a condition that can be eliminated by the removal of social, structural, and attitudinal barriers. Accordingly, the social model dispels the idea that the actions of others towards disabled people will have a marginal impact on their interests in not being disabled. Equally important, the social model refutes the idea that in order to significantly serve people's interest in not being disabled, it is necessary to cure bodily impairments, which is not always possible. As rights correlate with duties that are possible to comply with, as well as those that significantly serve the interests of the right holders, the social model’s conceptualization of disability invites the reframing of problems related to disability in terms of infringements of disability rights. A possible objection to the paper’s argument is raised, according to which the social model is at odds with the invocation of disability rights because disability rights are ineffective in realizing the social model's goal of improving the lives of disabled by eliminating disability. The paper responds to this objection by drawing a distinction between ‘moral rights,’ which, conceptually, are not subject to criticism of ineffectiveness, and ‘legal rights’ which are.

Keywords: disability rights, duties, moral rights, social model

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17893 Stenotrophomonas maltophilia: The Major Carbapenem Resistance Bacteria from Waste Water Treatment Plant of Pig Farm

Authors: Young-Ji Kim, Jin-Hyeong Park, Hong-Seok Kim, Jung-Whan Chon, Kwang-Yeop Kim, Dong-Hyeon Kim, Il-Byeong Kang, Da-Na Jeong, Jin-Hyeok Yim, Ho-Seok Jang, Kwang-Young Song, Kun-Ho Seo

Abstract:

Stenotrophomonas maltophilia is one of the emerging opportunistic pathogens, and also known to have extensive drug resistance intrinsically including carbepenems which is last resort for most serious infections. One possible way for S. maltophilia to infect human is via wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). In the period between October 2016 and February 2017, effluent samples of WWTP from 3 different pig farms were collected once a month and screened for isolation of S. maltophilia. Total 16 strains of S. maltophilia were isolated and, the antibiotic susceptibility phenotypes were determined by Vitek 2 system for 16 antibiotics, ampicillin (AMP), amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (AMC), piperacillin/tazobactam (TZP), cefazolin (CZ), cefoxitin (FOX), cefotaxime (CTX), ceftazidime (CAZ), cefepime (FEP), aztreonam (AZT), ertapenem (ETP), imipenem (IMP), amikacin (AK), gentamicin (GN), ciprofloxacin (CIP), tigecycline (TGC) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (SXT). All isolates showed high resistance to AMP (100%), CZ (100%), FOX (100%), CTX (100%), CAZ (100%), FEP (94%), AZT (100%), ETP (100%), IMP (100%), AK (100%), GN (100%) whereas were susceptible to CIP (0%), TGC (0%), SXT (6%). All strains harbored at least one of the antibiotic resistance determinant such as spgM, rmlA, and rpfF. Some isolates had similar MLST (multilocus sequence typing) types with clinical isolates, suggesting WWTP could have potential role in the transmission of S. maltophilia to aquatic environment and, possibly, to humans.

Keywords: Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Carbapenem resistance, waste water treatment plant, pig farm

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17892 Statistical Classification, Downscaling and Uncertainty Assessment for Global Climate Model Outputs

Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

Abstract:

Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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17891 The Influence of Using Soft Knee Pads on Static and Dynamic Balance among Male Athletes and Non-Athletes

Authors: Yaser Kazemzadeh, Keyvan Molanoruzy, Mojtaba Izady

Abstract:

The balance is the key component of motor skills to maintain postural control and the execution of complex skills. The present study was designed to evaluate the impact of soft knee pads on static and dynamic balance of male athletes. For this aim, thirty young athletes in different sport fields with 3 years professional sport training background and thirty healthy young men nonathletic (age: 24.5 ± 2.9, 24.3 ± 2.4, weight: 77.2 ± 4.3 and 80/9 ± 6/3 and height: 175 ± 2/84, 172 ± 5/44 respectively) as subjects selected. Then, subjects in two manner (without knee and with soft knee pads made of neoprene) execute standard error test (BESS) to assess static balance and star test to assess dynamic balance. For analyze of data, t-tests and one-way ANOVA were significant 05/0 ≥ α statistical analysis. The results showed that the use of soft knee significantly reduced error rate in static balance test (p ≥ 0/05). Also, use a soft knee pads decreased score of athlete group and increased score of nonathletic group in star test (p ≥ 0/05). These findings, indicates that use of knees affects static and dynamic balance in athletes and nonathletic in different manner and may increased athletic performance in sports that rely on static balance and decreased performance in sports that rely on dynamic balance.

Keywords: static balance, dynamic balance, soft knee, athletic men, non athletic men

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17890 Comparison Between Vegans and Omnivores on the Recovery of Delayed Onset Muscle Soreness in Young Females

Authors: Njeim Pressila, Hajj-Boutros Guy, Antony D. Karelis

Abstract:

Background: Acute resistance exercise is associated with an elevated inflammation response, which could lead to delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS). There is evidence that suggests that ingesting foods that have anti-inflammation properties may help reduce DOMS. A vegan diet has also been shown to be an anti-inflammatory diet which could, in turn, decrease DOMS. Objective and hypothesis: The purpose of the present study will be to compare markers of DOMS between vegans and omnivores after acute resistance exercise in young females. We hypothesize that vegans will have a better recovery of DOMS markers after a resistance exercise session compared to omnivores. Methods: Population: We will recruit30 vegans and 30 omnivores to participate in this study. Allvolunteers will follow either a vegan or an omnivore diet for at least 2 years. Anthropometric measurements, body composition, musclestrength (leg and chest press), markers of DOMS (swelling, pain, and stiffness), and dietary factors, as well as a wellness and anxiety questionnaire will be measured. All participants will also perform an acute resistance exercise session in order to induce DOMS. Pertinence: This project will give us a better understanding on the recovery process of vegans after a resistance training session and, as such, provide useful information to health professionals and athletes/coaches (kinesiologists and nutritionists)

Keywords: vgeans, omnivores, delayed onset muscle soreness, pain, stifness

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17889 A New Fuzzy Fractional Order Model of Transmission of Covid-19 With Quarantine Class

Authors: Asma Hanif, A. I. K. Butt, Shabir Ahmad, Rahim Ud Din, Mustafa Inc

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to a study of the fuzzy fractional mathematical model reviewing the transmission dynamics of the infectious disease Covid-19. The proposed dynamical model consists of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, quarantine, hospitalized and recovered compartments. In this study, we deal with the fuzzy fractional model defined in Caputo’s sense. We show the positivity of state variables that all the state variables that represent different compartments of the model are positive. Using Gronwall inequality, we show that the solution of the model is bounded. Using the notion of the next-generation matrix, we find the basic reproduction number of the model. We demonstrate the local and global stability of the equilibrium point by using the concept of Castillo-Chavez and Lyapunov theory with the Lasalle invariant principle, respectively. We present the results that reveal the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the considered model through the fixed point theorem of Schauder and Banach. Using the fuzzy hybrid Laplace method, we acquire the approximate solution of the proposed model. The results are graphically presented via MATLAB-17.

Keywords: Caputo fractional derivative, existence and uniqueness, gronwall inequality, Lyapunov theory

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17888 A New Car-Following Model with Consideration of the Brake Light

Authors: Zhiyuan Tang, Ju Zhang, Wenyuan Wu

Abstract:

In this research, a car-following model with consideration of the status of the brake light is proposed. The numerical results show that the stability of the traffic flow is improved. The ability of the brake light to reduce car accident is also showed.

Keywords: brake light, car-following model, traffic flow, regional planning, transportation

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17887 Collision Avoidance Based on Model Predictive Control for Nonlinear Octocopter Model

Authors: Doğan Yıldız, Aydan Müşerref Erkmen

Abstract:

The controller of the octocopter is mostly based on the PID controller. For complex maneuvers, PID controllers have limited performance capability like in collision avoidance. When an octocopter needs avoidance from an obstacle, it must instantly show an agile maneuver. Also, this kind of maneuver is affected severely by the nonlinear characteristic of octocopter. When these kinds of limitations are considered, the situation is highly challenging for the PID controller. In the proposed study, these challenges are tried to minimize by using the model predictive controller (MPC) for collision avoidance with a nonlinear octocopter model. The aim is to show that MPC-based collision avoidance has the capability to deal with fast varying conditions in case of obstacle detection and diminish the nonlinear effects of octocopter with varying disturbances.

Keywords: model predictive control, nonlinear octocopter model, collision avoidance, obstacle detection

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17886 The Effect of Manual Acupuncture-induced Injury as a Mechanism Contributing to Muscle Regeneration

Authors: Kamal Ameis

Abstract:

This study aims to further improve our understanding of the underlying mechanism of local injury that occurs after manual acupuncture needle manipulation, and that initiates the muscle regeneration process, which is essential for muscle maintenance and adaptation. Skeletal muscle is maintained by resident stem cells called muscle satellite cells. These cells are normally in quiescent state, but following muscle injury, they re-enter the cell cycle and execute a myogenic program resulting in muscle fiber regeneration. Our previous work in young rats demonstrated that acupuncture treatment induced injury that activated resident satellite (stem) cells, which leads to muscle regeneration. Skeletal muscle regeneration is an adaptive response to injury that requires a tightly orchestrated event between signaling pathways activated by growth factor and intrinsic regulatory program controlled by myogenic transcription factor. We identified several gene expressions uniquely important for muscle regeneration in response to acupuncture treatment at different time course using different biological techniques, including Immunocytochemistry, western blotting, and Real Time PCR. This study uses a novel but non-invasive model of injury induced by manual acupuncture to further our current understanding of regenerative mechanism of muscle stem cells. From a clinical perspective, this model of injury induced by manual acupuncture may be easily translatable into a clinical tool that can be used as an alternative to physical exercise for patients challenged by bed rest or forced inactivity. Finally, the knowledge gained from this research could be useful for studies of the local effects of various modalities of induced injury, such as the traditional method of healing by cupping (hijamah), which may enhanced muscle stem cells and muscle fiber regeneration.

Keywords: acupuncture, injury, regeneration, muscle stem cells

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17885 An Alternative Richards’ Growth Model Based on Hyperbolic Sine Function

Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

Abstract:

Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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17884 Fair Value Accounting and Evolution of the Ohlson Model

Authors: Mohamed Zaher Bouaziz

Abstract:

Our study examines the Ohlson Model, which links a company's market value to its equity and net earnings, in the context of the evolution of the Canadian accounting model, characterized by more extensive use of fair value and a broader measure of performance after IFRS adoption. Our hypothesis is that if equity is reported at its fair value, this valuation is closely linked to market capitalization, so the weight of earnings weakens or even disappears in the Ohlson Model. Drawing on Canada's adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), our results support our hypothesis that equity appears to include most of the relevant information for investors, while earnings have become less important. However, the predictive power of earnings does not disappear.

Keywords: fair value accounting, Ohlson model, IFRS adoption, value-relevance of equity and earnings

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17883 The Glycitin and 38 Combination Inhibit the UV-Induced Wrinkle Fomation in Human Primary Fibroblast

Authors: Manh Tin Ho, Phorl Sophors, Ga Young Seo, Young Mee Kim, Youngho Lim, Moonjae Cho

Abstract:

UV radiation in sunlight is one of the most potential factor induced skin ageing and photocarcinogenesis. UV may induce the melanin production and wrinkle formation. Recently, the natural secondary compounds have been reported that had the beneficial protective effects from UV light. In this study, we investigated the effects of two different compounds, glycitin and 38, on human dermal fibroblast. We first only treated the 38 on melanocyte cell to test the proliferation inhibition of 38 on this cell line. Then, we induced the combination of glycitin and 38 on human dermal fibroblast in 48h and investigate the proliferation, collagen production and the metalloproteinase family expression. The 38 alone could inhibit the proliferation of melanocyte which indicated the reduction of melanin production. The combination of glycitin and 38 truly increased the fibroblast proliferation and even they could recover the UV-induced and H2O2-induced damaged fibroblast proliferation. The co-treatment also promoted the collagen IV expression significantly and accelerated the total collagen secretion. In addition, metalloproteinase (MMPs) family such as MMP1, MMP2, MMP7 was down-regulated in transcriptional level. In conclusion, the combination of glycitin and 38 has induced the fibroblast proliferation even when it was damaged by UV exposure and H2O2, whereas augmented collagen production and inhibited the MMPs caused the wrinkle formation and decreased the melanocyte proliferation, suggested an potential UV-protective therapy.

Keywords: UV radiation, wrinkle, ageing, glycitin, dermal fibroblast

Procedia PDF Downloads 234