Search results for: long term instability risks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9562

Search results for: long term instability risks

2272 The Effects of Future Priming on Resource Concern

Authors: Calvin Rong, Regina Agassian, Mindy Engle-Friedman

Abstract:

Climate changes, including rising sea levels and increases in global temperature, can have major effects on resource availability, leading to increased competition for resources and rising food prices. The abstract nature and often delayed consequences of many ecological problems cause people focus on immediate, specific, and personal events and circumstances that compel immediate and emotional involvement. This finding may be explained by the challenges humans have in imagining themselves in the future, a shortcoming that interferes with decision-making involving far-off rewards, and leads people to indicate a lower concern toward the future than to present circumstances. The present study sought to assess whether priming people to think of themselves in the future might strengthen the connection to their future selves and stimulate environmentally-protective behavior. We hypothesize that priming participants to think about themselves in the future would increase concern for the future environment. 45 control participants were primed to think about themselves in the present, and 42 participants were primed to think about themselves in the futures. After priming, the participants rated their concern over access to clean water, food, and energy on a scale of 1 to 10. They also rated their predicted care levels for the environment at age points 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 on a scale of 1(not at all) to 10 (very much). Predicted care levels at age 90 for the experimental group was significantly higher than for the control group. Overall the experimental group rated their concern for resources higher than the control. In comparison to the control group (M=7.60, SD=2.104) participants in the experimental group had greater concern for clean water (M=8.56, SD=1.534). In comparison to the control group (M=7.49, SD=2.041) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about food resources (M=8.41, SD=1.830). In comparison to the control group (M=7.22, SD=1.999) participants in the experimental group were more concerned about energy resources (M=8.07, SD=1.967). This study assessed whether a priming strategy could be used to encourage pro-environmental practices that protect limited resources. Future-self priming helped participants see past short term issues and focus on concern for the future environment.

Keywords: climate change, future, priming, global warming

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2271 Usage the Point Analysis Algorithm (SANN) on Drought Analysis

Authors: Khosro Shafie Motlaghi, Amir Reza Salemian

Abstract:

In arid and semi-arid regions like our country Evapotranspiration is the greatestportion of water resource. Therefor knowlege of its changing and other climate parameters plays an important role for planning, development, and management of water resource. In this search the Trend of long changing of Evapotranspiration (ET0), average temprature, monthly rainfall were tested. To dose, all synoptic station s in iran were divided according to the climate with Domarton climate. The present research was done in semi-arid climate of Iran, and in which 14 synoptic with 30 years period of statistics were investigated with 3 methods of minimum square error, Mann Kendoll, and Vald-Volfoytz Evapotranspiration was calculated by using the method of FAO-Penman. The results of investigation in periods of statistic has shown that the process Evapotranspiration parameter of 24 percent of stations is positive, and for 2 percent is negative, and for 47 percent. It was without any Trend. Similary for 22 percent of stations was positive the Trend of parameter of temperature for 19 percent , the trend was negative and for 64 percent, it was without any Trend. The results of rainfall trend has shown that the amount of rainfall in most stations was not considered as a meaningful trend. The result of Mann-kendoll method similar to minimum square error method. regarding the acquired result was can admit that in future years Some regions will face increase of temperature and Evapotranspiration.

Keywords: analysis, algorithm, SANN, ET0

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2270 Short-Term Effects of an Open Monitoring Meditation on Cognitive Control and Information Processing

Authors: Sarah Ullrich, Juliane Rolle, Christian Beste, Nicole Wolff

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Inhibition and cognitive flexibility are essential parts of executive functions in our daily lives, as they enable the avoidance of unwanted responses or selectively switch between mental processes to generate appropriate behavior. There is growing interest in improving inhibition and response selection through brief mindfulness-based meditations. Arguably, open-monitoring meditation (OMM) improves inhibitory and flexibility performance by optimizing cognitive control and information processing. Yet, the underlying neurophysiological processes have been poorly studied. Using the Simon-Go/Nogo paradigm, the present work examined the effect of a single 15-minute smartphone app-based OMM on inhibitory performance and response selection in meditation novices. We used both behavioral and neurophysiological measures (event-related potentials, ERPs) to investigate which subprocesses of response selection and inhibition are altered after OMM. The study was conducted in a randomized crossover design with N = 32 healthy adults. We thereby investigated Go and Nogo trials in the paradigm. The results show that as little as 15 minutes of OMM can improve response selection and inhibition at behavioral and neurophysiological levels. More specifically, OMM reduces the rate of false alarms, especially during Nogo trials regardless of congruency. It appears that OMM optimizes conflict processing and response inhibition compared to no meditation, also reflected in the ERP N2 and P3 time windows. The results may be explained by the meta control model, which argues in terms of a specific processing mode with increased flexibility and inclusive decision-making under OMM. Importantly, however, the effects of OMM were only evident when there was the prior experience with the task. It is likely that OMM provides more cognitive resources, as the amplitudes of these EKPs decreased. OMM novices seem to induce finer adjustments during conflict processing after familiarization with the task.

Keywords: EEG, inhibition, meditation, Simon Nogo

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2269 An Interior Design Project Interventions about Changing Student Beliefs about Poverty, Homelessness, and Community Service

Authors: Alireza Derambakhsh

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The reason for this study was to inspect undergraduate interior design student state of mind toward destitution, vagrancy, and group administration. An auxiliary intention was to figure out whether introduction to plan ventures for the individuals who have encountered hardship would change student convictions. All first year recruits (n = 18), sophomore (n = 26), junior (n = 17), and senior (n = 25) interior design undergraduate students at a public university completed a questionnaire in light of a few current scales. Amid the semester, the sophomores dealt with assignments that were intended to provide exposure to different socio-economic groups. Students finished three projects. Initially, the outline of a makeshift destitute asylum. Second, a re-model of a childcare focus office and gathering region that gives administrations to low-salary families, and third, the outline of a low-wage, private home. In these ventures, students were obliged to direct broad data assembling so they could better comprehend the issues connected with destitution. Toward the end of the semester, the sophomores finished the survey again and were asked extra inquiries in regards to the class and projects. Students’ sentiments towards the poor were more individualistic when contrasted with the white collar class, yet when the working class correlation was uprooted, some of their mentality gave a more unpredictable comprehension of destitution and vagrancy. The semester-long intercession fundamentally moved students' understanding that underscored auxiliary and multifaceted reason.

Keywords: interior design, destitution, vagrancy, group administration

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2268 Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management System Through Corrosion Mitigation and Inspection Strategy: A Case Study of Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline from Wafa Field to Mellitah Gas Plant in Libya

Authors: Osama Sassi, Manal Eltorki, Iftikhar Ahmad

Abstract:

Poor integrity is one of the major causes of leaks and accidents in gas transmission pipelines. To ensure safe operation, it is must to have efficient and effective pipeline integrity management (PIM) system. The corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful pipeline integrity management program together design, material selection, operations, risk evaluation and communication aspects to maintain pipelines in a fit-for-service condition. The objective of a corrosion management plan is to design corrosion mitigation, monitoring, and inspection strategy, and for maintenance in a timely manner. This paper presents the experience of corrosion management of a gas transmission pipeline from Wafa field to Mellitah gas plant in Libya. The pipeline is 525.5 km long and having 32 inches diameter. It is a buried pipeline. External corrosion on pipeline is controlled with a combination of coatings and cathodic protection while internal corrosion is controlled with a combination of chemical inhibitors, periodic cleaning and process control. The monitoring and inspection techniques provide a way to measure the effectiveness of corrosion control systems and provide an early warning when changing conditions may be causing a corrosion problem. This paper describes corrosion management system used in Mellitah Oil & Gas BV for its gas transmission pipeline based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: corrosion mitigation on gas transmission pipelines, pipeline integrity management, corrosion management of gas pipelines, prevention and inspection of corrosion

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2267 Entrepreneurship, Institutional Quality, and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

Authors: Cleopatra Oluseye Ibukun

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Following the endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurship has been considered pivotal to economic growth and development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce unemployment has yielded minimal result with over 36% of youth unemployment and a dwindling economic growth despite the country’s natural and human resource endowment. This study, therefore, investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and institutional quality on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 1996 to 2018. The data is obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). The study period is guided by the availability of data, and the study employs both descriptive and econometric techniques of analysis (specifically, the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Approach). This approach is preferable given that the variables are stationary at the first difference, while the bounds test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. By implication, an increase in entrepreneurship significantly improves economic growth, and it reduces unemployment in both the short-run and the long-run. Besides, institutional quality proxied by the control of corruption, political stability, and government effectiveness significantly mediates the interaction between entrepreneurship and macroeconomic performance. This study concludes that improved institutional quality enhances the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria, and it recommends an improvement in Nigeria’s institutional quality because it can jeopardise or augment the effect of entrepreneurship on macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, institutional quality, unemployment, gross domestic product, Nigeria

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2266 Influence of Cooking on the Functional Properties of Dioscorea Schimperiana During Chips Production

Authors: Djeukeu Asongni William, Leng Marlyse, Gouado Inocent

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Background: Process for obtaining D. schimperiana chips involves a long period of cooking followed by drying of obtained products in the sun. Such a process could induce the modification of the functional properties of the chips, thus reducing the technological uses of these products. This study was conducted with a view to assessing the impact of this process on the chips of D. schimperiana. Methods: The chips used were purchased in Baham, Bamendjou and Bagangté markets during the month of February 2013. A representative sample of each market chips was formed by mixing the chips of several sellers. The control sample consisted of fresh yams that have been sliced to the average size of local chips then dried in the oven at 45 ° C for 36 h. On each sample was performed the analysis of the physico-chemical properties (carbohydrates, lipids, proteins, iron , phosphorus, reducing sugars, ash and total starch) and gelling properties both with and without inhibitor alpha-amylases (0.018 and 0.146 mol / l). Results: Results show that the levels of ash 2.99 g / 100gms, iron 1.01 g / 100gms and phosphorus 532.06 mg / 100gms fresh sample were significantly higher than those of the products obtained in the traditional process. The functional properties of the chips obtained from different methods shows that the peak viscosity of the fresh sample is larger than the other samples with or without inhibitor. In addition, the fresh sample has the lowest breakdown under the same conditions. Conclusion: These results show that traditional process reduces technological potential of chips, thus limiting the value of D. schimperiana.

Keywords: Dioscorea schimperiana, chips, functional properties, technological properties, valorization

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2265 Comparison of Non-destructive Devices to Quantify the Moisture Content of Bio-Based Insulation Materials on Construction Sites

Authors: Léa Caban, Lucile Soudani, Julien Berger, Armelle Nouviaire, Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga

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Improvement of the thermal performance of buildings is a high concern for the construction industry. With the increase in environmental issues, new types of construction materials are being developed. These include bio-based insulation materials. They capture carbon dioxide, can be produced locally, and have good thermal performance. However, their behavior with respect to moisture transfer is still facing some issues. With a high porosity, the mass transfer is more important in those materials than in mineral insulation ones. Therefore, they can be more sensitive to moisture disorders such as mold growth, condensation risks or decrease of the wall energy efficiency. For this reason, the initial moisture content on the construction site is a piece of crucial knowledge. Measuring moisture content in a laboratory is a mastered task. Diverse methods exist but the easiest and the reference one is gravimetric. A material is weighed dry and wet, and its moisture content is mathematically deduced. Non-destructive methods (NDT) are promising tools to determine in an easy and fast way the moisture content in a laboratory or on construction sites. However, the quality and reliability of the measures are influenced by several factors. Classical NDT portable devices usable on-site measure the capacity or the resistivity of materials. Water’s electrical properties are very different from those of construction materials, which is why the water content can be deduced from these measurements. However, most moisture meters are made to measure wooden materials, and some of them can be adapted for construction materials with calibration curves. Anyway, these devices are almost never calibrated for insulation materials. The main objective of this study is to determine the reliability of moisture meters in the measurement of biobased insulation materials. The determination of which one of the capacitive or resistive methods is the most accurate and which device gives the best result is made. Several biobased insulation materials are tested. Recycled cotton, two types of wood fibers of different densities (53 and 158 kg/m3) and a mix of linen, cotton, and hemp. It seems important to assess the behavior of a mineral material, so glass wool is also measured. An experimental campaign is performed in a laboratory. A gravimetric measurement of the materials is carried out for every level of moisture content. These levels are set using a climatic chamber and by setting the relative humidity level for a constant temperature. The mass-based moisture contents measured are considered as references values, and the results given by moisture meters are compared to them. A complete analysis of the uncertainty measurement is also done. These results are used to analyze the reliability of moisture meters depending on the materials and their water content. This makes it possible to determine whether the moisture meters are reliable, and which one is the most accurate. It will then be used for future measurements on construction sites to assess the initial hygrothermal state of insulation materials, on both new-build and renovation projects.

Keywords: capacitance method, electrical resistance method, insulation materials, moisture transfer, non-destructive testing

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2264 Identity and Economics: The Economic Welfare and Behavior of Romani People in Turkey

Authors: Sinem Bagce, Ensar Yilmaz

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As a well-known fact, neoclassical economics excludes 'what is humanized' out of the literature for a long time. Rationality is defined in a very narrow context in the mainstream economics. Identity economics is one of the challenges raised against this tradition. The concept of 'identity' has been introduced to economics by Akerlof and Kranton (2000). The identity-based analysis mainly searches the links between economic welfare and decision of the actors in question related to ethnic, racial, gender and immigrant issues. This is more about discrimination and its repercussions on economic decisions of the relevant actors in a social sphere. In this article, we, in the context of identity economics, search the economic welfare and decisions of Romani people in Turkey. It is plainly observed that identity is clearly the major determinant for Romani people in economic and social life. They have their own distinctive rationality in making economic decisions. For a more scrutinized and academic analysis, we aim to trace their economic identity in their real social environment. This study is an extension of surveys conducted on Romani people in Turkey. Using data similar to SILC (Statistics for Income and Living Conditions) conducted on Romani people across the whole Turkey, we look for some questions about the income/welfare distribution among them, consumer preferences/habits, living conditions, occupations, education and as such. For this, by employing econometric and statistical analytical tools, we aim to obtain the answers for these questions. We think these analytic results will provide us to evaluate the links between their economic state and their identity more thoroughly. JEL Codes: D1, J 15, R23.

Keywords: identity economics, Romani people, discrimination, social identity and preferences

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2263 Rural Development through Women Participation in Livestock Care and Management in District Faisalabad

Authors: Arfan Riasat, M. Iqbal Zafar, Gulfam Riasat

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Pakistani women actively participate in livestock management activities, along with their normal domestic chores. The study was designed to measure the position and contribution of rural women, their constraints in livestock management activities and mainly how the rural women contribute for development in the district Faisalabad. It was envisioned that women participation in livestock activities have rarely been investigated. A multistage random sampling technique was used to collect the data from Tehsil Summandry of the district selected at random. Two union councils were taken by using simple random sampling technique. Four Chak (village) from each union council were selected at random and fifteen woman were further selected randomly from each selected chak. The results show that a vast majority of women were illiterate, having annual family income of one to two lac. They are living in joint family system. Their main occupation is agriculture and they spend long hours in whole livestock related activities to support their families. A large proportion of the respondents reported that they had to face problems and constraints in livestock activities in the context of decision making, medication, awareness, training along with social and economic issues. Analysis indicated that education level of women, income of household, age were significantly associated with level of participation. Women participation in livestock activities increased production and they were involved in income generating activities for better economic conditions of their families.

Keywords: women, participation, livestock, management, rural development

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2262 Quantification of Dowel-Concrete Interaction in Jointed Plain Concrete Pavements Using 3D Numerical Simulation

Authors: Lakshmana Ravi Raj Gali, K. Sridhar Reddy, M. Amaranatha Reddy

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Load transfer between adjacent slabs of the jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP) system is inevitable for long-lasting performance. Dowel bars are generally used to ensure sufficient degree of load transfer, in addition to the load transferred by aggregate interlock mechanism at the joints. Joint efficiency is the measure of joint quality, a major concern and therefore the dowel bar system should be designed and constructed well. The interaction between dowel bars and concrete that includes various parameters of dowel bar and concrete will explain the degree of joint efficiency. The present study focuses on the methodology of selecting contact stiffness, which quantifies dowel-concrete interaction. In addition, a parametric study which focuses on the effect of dowel diameter, dowel shape, the spacing between dowel bars, joint opening, the thickness of the slab, the elastic modulus of concrete, and concrete cover on contact stiffness was also performed. The results indicated that the thickness of the slab is most critical among various parameters to explain the joint efficiency. Further displacement equivalency method was proposed to find out the contact stiffness. The proposed methodology was validated with the available field surface deflection data collected by falling weight deflectometer (FWD).

Keywords: contact stiffness, displacement equivalency method, Dowel-concrete interaction, joint behavior, 3D numerical simulation

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2261 Ecocriticism and Sustainable Development: A Study of Kamila Shamsie's a God in Every Stone

Authors: Shaista Maseeh

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English Literature from the beginning itself has had psychological, social and environment concerns. Virgil, Shakespeare, John Milton, William Wordsworth to the most current Robert Hass have shown and proved their environmental and ecological interests as well as distress related to its loss. Pastoral literature is also one such genre that links literature with environment. Thanks to the contemporary literary theories that they successfully are relating Literature formally to the subjects other than written text. One of such literary theory is 'Ecocriticism.' It stands under the umbrella of the Economics term, Sustainable Development,' or it can also be understood as an ecological extension of it. Ecocriticism helps the reader to study the dynamic relation between literature and our degrading environment. It draws attention towards the ravaged condition of nature and animals, that how nature is exploited by human beings for their own benefit leaving nature at a repairable loss. For instance, deforestation is reducing the size of forest every year, injuring permanently flora, fauna and also the habitat of animals. This paper will study the ecological and environmental concerns in the latest novel by Pakistani British writer Kamila Shamsie, A God in every Stone (2014). The book is not only a literary masterpiece in elegant prose, but also a novel posing a lot of questions about 'nature and environment' in general and 'animals' in particular. It gives the glimpses of the interesting history of Temple of Zeus in Greece and Ancient Caria, and covers many episodes of history the Indian freedom struggle. In course of novel's narrative Kamila Shamsie poses disturbing question about environmental abuse, about how human beings are more 'beasts' than so call beasts, poor animals. She also glorifies the simplicity of past. The novel has enough instances to prove Shamsie's positive stand on saving the earth that is being more abused than used by human beings. This paper will provide an ecocritical approach to study A God in Every Stone (2014).

Keywords: animals, ecocriticism, environment, nature

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2260 The Impact of Gestational Weight Gain on Subclinical Atherosclerosis, Placental Circulation and Neonatal Complications

Authors: Marina Shargorodsky

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Aim: Gestational weight gain (GWG) has been related to altering future weight-gain curves and increased risks of obesity later in life. Obesity may contribute to vascular atherosclerotic changes as well as excess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality observed in these patients. Noninvasive arterial testing, such as ultrasonographic measurement of carotid IMT, is considered a surrogate for systemic atherosclerotic disease burden and is predictive of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals as well as recurrent events in patients with known cardiovascular disease. Currently, there is no consistent evidence regarding the vascular impact of excessive GWG. The present study was designed to investigate the impact of GWG on early atherosclerotic changes during late pregnancy, using intima-media thickness, as well as placental vascular circulation and inflammatory lesions and pregnancy outcomes. Methods: The study group consisted of 59 pregnant women who gave birth and underwent a placental histopathological examination at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Edith Wolfson Medical Center, Israel, in 2019. According to the IOM guidelines the study group has been divided into two groups: Group 1 included 32 women with pregnancy weight gain within recommended range; Group 2 included 27 women with excessive weight gain during pregnancy. The IMT was measured from non-diseased intimal and medial wall layers of the carotid artery on both sides, visualized by high-resolution 7.5 MHz ultrasound (Apogee CX Color, ATL). Placental histology subdivided placental findings to lesions consistent with maternal vascular and fetal vascular malperfusion according to the criteria of the Society for Pediatric Pathology, subdividing placental findings to lesions consistent with maternal vascular and fetal vascular malperfusion, as well as the inflammatory response of maternal and fetal origin. Results: IMT levels differed between groups and were significantly higher in Group 1 compared to Group 2 (0.7+/-0.1 vs 0.6+/-0/1, p=0.028). Multiple linear regression analysis of IMT included variables based on their associations in univariate analyses with a backward approach. Included in the model were pre-gestational BMI, HDL cholesterol and fasting glucose. The model was significant (p=0.001) and correctly classified 64.7% of study patients. In this model, pre-pregnancy BMI remained a significant independent predictor of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by IMT (OR 4.314, 95% CI 0.0599-0.674, p=0.044). Among placental lesions related to fetal vascular malperfusion, villous changes consistent with fetal thrombo-occlusive disease (FTOD) were significantly higher in Group 1 than in Group 2, p=0.034). In Conclusion, the present study demonstrated that excessive weight gain during pregnancy is associated with an adverse effect on early stages of subclinical atherosclerosis, placental vascular circulation and neonatal complications. The precise mechanism for these vascular changes, as well as the overall clinical impact of weight control during pregnancy on IMT, placental vascular circulation as well as pregnancy outcomes, deserves further investigation.

Keywords: obesity, pregnancy, complications, weight gain

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2259 An Investigation into the Social Factors that Influence Sport Participation: A Case of Gymnastics in the Western Cape

Authors: W. C. Lucas, S. Titus, M. E. M. Young

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Gymnastics is the umbrella term that represents seven different and unique disciplines of gymnastics. Men and women of all ages and abilities practice this sport, and participation in gymnastics can develop both gross and fine motor skills, strength, flexibility, coordination and balance. There are various social factors, such as a family’s socioeconomic status or accessibility to sports facilities that may play a role in affecting levels of participation. The aim of this study is to investigate the social factors that have an influence on gymnastics participation in the Western Cape. To this end, a qualitative approach is adopted to collect data. This study also adopts the ecological systems theory as the theoretical framework, and is used to analyze and interpret current social factors that directly or indirectly influence participation in gymnastics. The study’s objectives were to ascertain which social factors hinder participation, and which social factors promote participation, thus, coaches, parents and gymnasts participated in focus group discussions. Key informant interviews took place with experts in the field of gymnastics in the Western Cape. A thematic analysis was conducted on transcriptions from the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Social factors investigated in this study occurred in the chronosystem, macrosystem, exosystem, mesosystem, and microsystem, and had both a direct and indirect influence on the gymnast’s continued participation. These systems are defined as the environment of the individual, in which they grow and develop. The research findings of this paper are used to draw conclusions and make specific recommendations for practice and further research. The information gathered in this study can assist all stakeholders within the field of gymnastics, such as parents, judges, coaches, gymnasts, and the supporting community which surround the participating gymnast.

Keywords: developing child, ecological systems theory, facilities, federation, gymnastics, influence, participation, social factors, socioeconomic status, sport

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2258 Comparison of Small Ruminants (Sheep) Production Efficiency of Nomadic and Transhumance Flocks in Malakand, Pakistan

Authors: Akbar Nawaz Khan, Abdul Ghaffar, Abdur Rehman, Muhammad Naeem Riaz, Sayed Muhammad Hassan Andrabi

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The present study was conducted to compare sheep rearing in nomadic with transhumance system in term of production parameters. The following parameters which studied for comparison were household size, landholding area, flock size, body condition score, fecal egg count and live weight change in sheep under nomadic and transhumance systems of management in Malakand since October 2010 to March 2011. Further the effects of Body Condition Score (BCS) and Fecal Egg Count (FEC) on production were also examined. Two systems were checked for the purpose to check the efficiency of production. A total of eight flocks, four each from nomadic and transhumance system were selected for the study; each flock was divided into treatment and controlled groups to check the effect of treatment or de-wormers. A total of 160 animals were selected randomly (80 treated, 80 controlled). The adult ram average weight transhumance system was 55.58 kg while in nomadic that was 54.16 kg, weight change was positive, and the highest change was recorded in transhumance treated which was 13%. Fecal egg count was record low (75 EPG) in transhumance treated group while high (330 EPG) in nomadic controlled. Body condition score was recorded 3.6 for transhumance treated and 3.32 for nomadic treated. It is concluded from the present study that transhumance system performed significantly (p < 0.05) better in respect of live weight, BCS, FEC, family size, Landholding area, number of animals in a flock, offspring record, culling, and mortality. Mean values are 7.367 ± 0221, 0.900 ± 0.071, 63.167 ± 1.559, 55.600 ± 1.480, 8.300 ± 0.321 and 2.500 ± 0.158 respectively. De-wormer effect on FEC showed a significant reduction in egg load in mature sheep on both systems.

Keywords: small ruminant, sheep, nomadic, transhumance, Malakand, production efficiency

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2257 Thermomechanical Behavior of Asphalt Modified with Thermoplastic Polymer and Nanoclay Dellite 43B

Authors: L. F. Tamele Jr., G. Buonocore, H. F. Muiambo

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Asphalt binders play an essential role in the performance and properties of asphalt mixtures. The increase in heavy loads, greater traffic volume, and high tire pressure, combined with a substantial variation in daily and seasonal pavement temperatures, are the main responsible for the failure of asphalt pavements. To avoid or mitigate these failures, the present research proposes the use of thermoplastic polymers, HDPE and LLDPE, and nanoclay Dellite 43B for modification of asphalt in order to improve its thermomechanical and rheological properties. The nanocomposites were prepared by the solution intercalation method in a high shear mixer for a mixing time of 2 h, at 180℃ and 5000 rpm. The addition of Dellite 43B improved the physical, rheological, and thermal properties of asphalt, either separated or in the form of polymer/bitumen blends. The results of the physical characterization showed a decrease in penetration and an increase in softening point, thermal susceptibility, viscosity, and stiffness. On the other hand, thermal characterization showed that the nanocomposites have greater stability at higher temperatures by exhibiting greater amounts of residues and improved initial and final decomposition temperatures. Thus, the modification of asphalt by polymers and nanoclays seems to be a suitable solution for road pavement in countries which experiment with high temperatures combined with long heavy rain seasons.

Keywords: asphalt, nanoclay dellite 43B, polymer modified asphalt, thermal and rheological properties

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2256 Child Labor and Injury Occurrence in Nicaragua: A Gender Perspective Analysis

Authors: Cristina Domínguez, Steven N. Cuadra

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Aims: The aims of this study are: 1) to describe the occurrence and estimate the risk of suffering injuries of any kind, especially work-related injuries, in rural children working in agricultural activities and in urban children working on the street 2) to explore factors that might be associated with the occurrence of work-related injuries among child workers such as gender, school attendance, and performance of household chore. Method: We performed a crossectional study among working children in agricultural activities (120) and on the street (108) and in non-working referents (140) in 2019. We investigated self-reported injuries during the last 12 months, with focus on work-related injuries. Incidence rate, rate ratios, and 95% CI were calculated by Poisson regression. Results: Agricultural workers have a higher incidence of work-related injuries (2.1 per 1000 person-days) than children working on the street (1.8 per 1000 person-days). However, when considering girl’s unpaid work at home, girls had higher occurrence. Girls had a 30% increase on the risk of suffering work related injuries compared to boys. Performing household chore and attending school were the major predictors of injury occurrence. Discussion: Our data suggest If such partial and full-time girl’s housework is taken into account, there would be little or no variation between the sexes with regard to injuries occurrence, and the incidence rate of work related injuries among girls could even exceed that of boys A greater understanding of the interaction of factors related to how child workers spend their time, and its impact on children’s health, is needed in order to identify feasible and appropriate strategies to reduce the negative effect of work on children when elimination of child labor is not reachable in the short term. Clearly, gender aspects on child labor may allow for more effective targeting of prevention efforts.

Keywords: injuries, child labor, agricultural work, gender

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2255 Theatre, Tea-Time and Harpsichords: Women’s Entertainment and Sensibility in Eighteenth-Century England

Authors: Ayako Otomo

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This paper will examines the rise of a feminine orientation regarding arts and culture associated with the notion of Sensibility during the early part of the English long eighteenth century. As is widely known, the prosperous modernisation that occurred in this period was a significant factor in the nation taking a leading role in the emergent Enlightenment via the social, political and scientific advancement of Britain. As a result, this prompted the relaxing of the strictures of class and gender hierarchies in line with the new consumerism and cosmopolitanism of the nation. Accordingly, there was a significant increase of female involvement in artistic and cultural consumption. This can be understood in terms of the notion of Sensibility, associating it further with the fields of physiology, psychology and aesthetics, indebted in their turn to British Empiricism. This paper first traces the background of how women were recognisably involved in artistic and cultural circulation within an historical perspective that is articulated by the notion of Sensibility. Then, the discussion turns to the confluence of the issues of female association, creativity and the feminisation of the aesthetic of the arts and culture employing an interdisciplinary perspective. Arts and culture can also classified by public and private social spheres and gender according to Jürgen Habermas. The relationship between women and the theatre became a public issue. Music-making such as playing the harpsichord, reading, and conversation within the ritualistic teatime space dominated many of the artistic and cultural activities within the domestic private sphere.

Keywords: theatre, arts, sensibility, 18th century England

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2254 Development of pm2.5 Forecasting System in Seoul, South Korea Using Chemical Transport Modeling and ConvLSTM-DNN

Authors: Ji-Seok Koo, Hee‑Yong Kwon, Hui-Young Yun, Kyung-Hui Wang, Youn-Seo Koo

Abstract:

This paper presents a forecasting system for PM2.5 levels in Seoul, South Korea, leveraging a combination of chemical transport modeling and ConvLSTM-DNN machine learning technology. Exposure to PM2.5 has known detrimental impacts on public health, making its prediction crucial for establishing preventive measures. Existing forecasting models, like the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), are hindered by their reliance on uncertain input data, such as anthropogenic emissions and meteorological patterns, as well as certain intrinsic model limitations. The system we've developed specifically addresses these issues by integrating machine learning and using carefully selected input features that account for local and distant sources of PM2.5. In South Korea, the PM2.5 concentration is greatly influenced by both local emissions and long-range transport from China, and our model effectively captures these spatial and temporal dynamics. Our PM2.5 prediction system combines the strengths of advanced hybrid machine learning algorithms, convLSTM and DNN, to improve upon the limitations of the traditional CMAQ model. Data used in the system include forecasted information from CMAQ and WRF models, along with actual PM2.5 concentration and weather variable data from monitoring stations in China and South Korea. The system was implemented specifically for Seoul's PM2.5 forecasting.

Keywords: PM2.5 forecast, machine learning, convLSTM, DNN

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2253 From a Madwoman in the Attic to a Fairy Land: A Conversation with Antoinette in Jean Rhys's Wide Sargasso Sea

Authors: Prasenjit Panda

Abstract:

Jean Rhys’s Wide Sargasso Sea, a prequel to Bronte’s Jane Eyre, explores the history of the other and gives voices to the people who were silenced and kept under the darkness of negation and denial for a long time. Jean Wide Sargasso Sea provides an alternative understanding of Charlotte Brontë’s mad Creole woman, i.e., Bertha Mason of Jane Eyre in the postcolonial context. Rhys transforms Charlotte Bronte’s Victorian romance into a realistic narrative. In doing so, she re-reads Bertha as Antoinette, the unspeakable figure of otherness, into an unnameable self, and creates a new stage for the inner self. She in the novel is no longer a lunatic heiress in Rochester’s attic rather in this novel she finds her fantasy, dream and most importantly, voice. Rhys peeps through the character of Antoinette through her fragmented memories, dreams, and identity. Antoinette’s identity is mutilated constantly in the conflicts between colonizers and colonized, male and female, black and white. We shall use postcolonial theories like Bhaba’s hybridity and third space as a methodology to reveal the dialectics of struggle of a doubly colonized woman.We shall see that Bertha Mason was neglected by Bronte because of her madness and was locked in the Rochester’s Attic, but here Rhys beautifully converts her madness as a language of Antoinette, a language for her protest, a language for her liberation, a language for her dreams. In this present paper, we shall try to show how Antoinette tries to free her soul and body from the clutches of her multiple existences, identity, and narratives.

Keywords: colonizer, dislocation, fragmented memories, identity, narratives

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2252 A Two-Stage Process for the Sustainable Production of Aliphatic Polyesters

Authors: A. Douka, S. Vouyiouka, L. M. Papaspyridi, D. Korres, C. Papaspyrides

Abstract:

A "green" process was studied for the preparation of partially renewable aliphatic polyesters based on 1,4-butanediol and 1,8-octanediol with various diacids and derivatives, namely diethyl succinate, adipic acid, sebacic acid, 1,12-dodecanedioic acid and 1,14-tetradecanedioic acid. A first step of enzymatic prepolymerization was carried out in the presence of two different solvents, toluene and diphenylether, applying molecular sieves and vacuum, respectively, to remove polycondensation by-products. Poly(octylene adipate) (PE 8.6), poly(octylene dodecanate)(PE 8.12) and poly(octylene tetradecanate) (PE 8.14) were firstly enzymatically produced in toluene using molecular sieves giving however, low-molecular-weight products. Thereafter, the synthesis of PE 8.12 and PE 8.14 was examined under optimized conditions using diphenylether as solvent and a more vigorous by-product removal step, such as application of vacuum. Apart from these polyesters, the optimized process was also implemented for the production of another long-chain polyester-poly(octylene sebacate) (PE 8.10) and a short-chain polyester-poly(butylene succinate) (PE 4.4). Subsequently, bulk post-polymerization in the melt or solid state was performed. SSP runs involved absence of biocatalyst and reaction temperatures (T) in the vicinity of the prepolymer melting point (Tm-T varied between 15.5 up to 4oC). Focusing on PE 4.4 and PE 8.12, SSP took place under vacuum or flowing nitrogen leading to increase of the molecular weight and improvement of the end product physical appearance and thermal properties.

Keywords: aliphatic polyester, enzymatic polymerization, solid state polymerization, Novozym 435

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2251 Tom Stoppard: The Amorality of the Artist

Authors: Majeed Mohammed Midhin, Clare Finburgh

Abstract:

To maintain a healthy balanced loyalty between art and politics posits a debatable issue. The artist is always on the look out for the potential tension between those two realms. Therefore, one of the most painful dilemmas the artist finds is how to function in a society without sacrificing the aesthetic values of his/her work. In other words, the life-long awareness of failure which derives from the concept of the artist as caught between unflattering social realities and the need to invent genuine art forms becomes a fertilizing soil for the artists to dig deep into its origin. Thus, within the framework of this dilemma, the question of the responsibility of the artist and the relationship of the art to politics will be illuminating. The present paper tackles the idea of the amorality of the artist in selected plays by Tom Stoppard. However, Stoppard’s awareness of his situation as a refugee has led him to keep at a distance from politics. He tried hard to avoid any intervention into the realms of political debate, especially in his earliest work. On the one hand, it is not meant that he did not interest in politics as such, but rather he preferred to question it than to create a fixed ideological position. On the other hand, Stoppard’s refusal to intervene in politics is ascribed to his feeling of gratitude to Britain where he settled. As a result, Stoppard has frequently been criticized for a lack of political engagement and also for not leaning too much for the left when he does engage. His reaction to these public criticisms finds expression in his self-conscious statements which defensively stressed the artifice of his work. He, like Oscar Wilde thinks that the responsibility of the artist is devoted to the realm of his/her art. Consequently, his consciousness for the role of the artist is truly reflected in his two plays, Artist Descending a Staircase(1972) and Travesties(1974).

Keywords: amorality, dilemma, aesthetic, responsibility of the artist, political theatre

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2250 The Correlation between Political Awareness and Political Participation for University Students’ “Applied Study”

Authors: Rana Mohamed

Abstract:

Despite youth in Egypt were away from political life for a long time; they are able to make a tangible difference in political status. Purpose: This exploratory study aims to determine whether and how much the prevailing political culture influence participatory behavior with a special focus on political awareness factors among university students in Egypt. Methodology: The study employed several data collection methods to ensure the validity of the results, quantitative and qualitative, verifying the positive relationships between the levels of political awareness and political participation and between political values in society and the level of political participation among university students. For achieving the objectives of the paper in the light of the pool of available literature and data, the study adopts system analysis method to apply input-output and conversions associated with the phenomena of political participation to analyze the different factors that have an effect upon the prevailing political culture and the patterns of values in Egyptian society. Findings: The result reveals that the level of political awareness and political participation for students were low, with a statistically significant relationship. In addition, the patterns of values in Egyptian culture significantly influence the levels of student participation. Therefore, the study recommends formulating policies that aim to increase awareness levels and integrate youth into the political process. Originality/Value: The importance of the academic study stems from addressing one of the central issues in political science; this study measures the change in the Egyptian patterns of culture and values among university students.

Keywords: political awareness, political participation, civic culture, citizenship, Egyptian universities, political knowledge

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2249 High Piezoelectric and Magnetic Performance Achieved in the Lead-free BiFeO3-BaTiO3 Cceramics by Defect Engineering

Authors: Muhammad Habib, Xuefan Zhou, Lin Tang, Guoliang Xue, Fazli Akram, Dou Zhang

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Defect engineering approach is a well-established approach for the customization of functional properties of perovskite ceramics. In modern technology, the high multiferroic properties for elevated temperature applications are greatly demanding. In this work, the Bi-nonstoichiometric lead-free 0.67Biy-xSmxFeO3-0.33BaTiO3 ceramics (Sm-doped BF-BT for Bi-excess; y = 1.03 and Bi-deficient; y = 0.975 with x = 0.00, 0.04 and 0.08) were design for the high-temperature multiferroic property. Enhanced piezoelectric (d33  250 pC/N and d33* 350 pm/V) and magnetic properties (Mr  0.25 emu/g) with a high Curie temperature (TC  465 ℃) were obtained in the Bi-deficient pure BF-BT ceramics. With Sm-doping (x = 0.04), the TC decrease to 350 ℃ a significant improvement occurred in the d33* to 504 pm/V and 450 pm/V for Bi-excess and Bi-deficient compositions, respectively. The structural origin of the enhanced piezoelectric strain performance is related to the soft ferroelectric effect by Sm-doping and reversible phase transition from the short-range relaxor ferroelectric state to the long-range order under the applied electric field. However, a slight change occurs in the Mr 0.28 emu/g value with Sm-doping for Bi-deficient ceramics, whereas the Bi-excess ceramics shows completely paramagnetic behavior. Hence, the origin of high magnetic properties in the Bi-deficient BF-BT ceramics is mainly attributed to the proposed double exchange mechanism. We believe that this strategy will provide a new perspective for the development of lead-free multiferroic ceramics for high-temperature applications.

Keywords: BiFeO3-BaTiO3, lead-free piezoceramics, magnetic properties, defect engineering

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2248 A New Cytoprotective Drug on the Basis of Cytisine: Phase I Clinical Trial Results

Authors: B. Yermekbayeva, A. Gulyayaev, T. Nurgozhin, C. Bektur

Abstract:

Cytisine aminophosphonate under the name "Cytafat" was approved for clinical trials in Republic of Kazakhstan as a putative liver protecting drug for the treatment of acute toxic hepatitis. A method of conducting the clinical trial is a double blind study. Total number of patients -71, aged from 16 to 56 years. Research on healthy volunteers determined the maximal tolerable doze of "Cytafat" as 200 mg/kg. Side effects when administered at high dozes (100-200 mg/kg) are tachycardia and increase of arterial blood pressure. The drug is tested in the treatment of 28 patients with a syndrome of hepatocellular failure (a poisoning with substitutes of alcohol, rat poison, or medical products). "Cytafat" was intravenously administered at a dose of 10 mg/kg in 200 ml of 5 % glucose solution once daily. The number of administrations: 1-3. In the comparison group, 23 patients were treated intravenously once a day with “Essenciale H” at a dose of 10 ml. 20 patients received a placebo (10 ml of glucose intravenously). In all cases of toxic hepatopathology the significant positive clinical effect of the testing drug distinguishable from placebo and surpassing the alternative was observed. Within a day after administration a sharp reduction of cytolitic syndrome parameters (ALT, AST, alkaline phosphatase, thymol turbidity test, GGT) was registered, a reduction of the severity of cholestatic syndrome (bilirubin decreased) was recorded, significantly decreased indices of lipid peroxidation. The following day, in all cases the positive dynamics was determined with ultrasound study (reduction of diffuse changes and events of reactive pancreatitis), hepatomegaly disappeared. Normalization of all parameters occurred in 2-3 times faster, than when using the drug "Essenciale H" and placebo. Average term of elimination of toxic hepatopathy when using the drug "Cytafat" -2,8 days, "Essenciale H" -7,2 days, and placebo -10,6 days. The new drug "Cytafat" has expressed cytoprotective properties.

Keywords: cytisine, cytoprotection, hepatopathy, hepatoprotection

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2247 First-Year Growth and Development of 445 Preterm Infants: A Clinical Study

Authors: Ying Deng, Fan Yang

Abstract:

Aim: To study the growth pattern of preterm infants during the first year of life and explore the association between head circumference (HC) and neurodevelopment sequences and to get a general knowledge of the incidence of anemia in preterm babies in Chengdu, Southwest China. Method: We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, neonates with gestational age < 37 weeks were enrolled this study from 2012.1.1 to 2014.7.9. Anthropometry (weight, height, HC) was obtained at birth, every month before 6 months-old and every 2 months in the next half year. All the infants’ age were corrected to 40 weeks. Growth data presented as Z-scores which was calculated by WHO Anthro software. Z-score defined as (the actual value minus the average value)/standard deviation. Neurodevelopment was assessed at 12 months-old [9-11 months corrected age (CA)] by using “Denver Development Screen Test (DDST)". The hemoglobin (Hb) was examined at 6 months for CA. Result: 445 preterm infants were followed-up 1 year, including 64 very low birth weight infants (VLBW), 246 low birth weight infants (LBW) and 135 normal birth weight infants(NBW). From full-term to 12 months after birth, catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. From VLBW to NBW, HCZ was -1.17 (95 % CI: -1.53,-0.80; P value < 0.0001) lower during the first12 months. WAZ was-1.12(95 % CI: -1.47,-0.76; p < 0.0001) lower. WHZ and HAZ were -1.04 (95%CI:-1.38, -0.69; P<0.0001) and -0.69 (95%CI:-1.06,-0.33; P < 0.0001) lower respectively. The peak of WAZ appeared during 0-3 months CA among preterm infants. For VLBW infants, the peak of HAZ and HCZ emerged at 8-11 months CA. However, the trend of HAZ and HCZ is the same as WAZ in LBW and NBW infants. Growth in the small for gestational age (SGA) infants was poorer than appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants. The rate of DQ < 70 in VLBW and LBW were 29.6%, 7.7%, respectively (P < 0.0001). HCZ < -1SD at 3 months emerged as an independent predictor of DQ scores below 85 at 12 months after birth. The incidence of anemia in preterm infants was 11% at 6 months for CA. Moreover, 7 children (1.7%) diagnosed with Cerebral palsy (CP). Conclusions: The catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. VLBW and SGA showed poor growth. There was imbalance between WAZ and HAZ in VLBW infants. The VLBW babies had higher severe abnormal scores than LBW and NBW, especially in boys. Z score for HC at 3 months < -1SDwas a significant risk factor for abnormal DQ scores at the first year. The iron supplement reduced the morbidity of anemia in preterm infants.

Keywords: preterm infant, growth and development, DDST, Z-scores

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2246 Production Increase of C-Central Wells Baher Essalm-Libya

Authors: Emed Krekshi, Walid Ben Husein

Abstract:

The Bahr Essalam gas-condensate field is located off the Libyan coast and is currently being produced by Mellitah Oil and Gas (MOG). Gas and condensate are produced from the Bahr Essalam reservoir through a mixture of platform and subsea wells, with the subsea wells being gathered at the western manifolds and delivered to the Sabratha platform via a 22-inch pipeline. Gas is gathered and dehydrated on the Sabratha platform and then delivered to the Mellitah gas plant via an existing 36-inch gas export pipeline. The condensate separated on the Sabratha platform will be delivered to the Mellitah gas plant via an existing 10-inch export pipeline. The Bahr Essalam Phase II project includes 2 production wells (CC16 & CC17) at C-Central A connected to the Sabratha platform via a new 10.9 km long 10”/14” production pipeline. Production rates from CC16 and CC17 have exceeded the maximum planned rate of 40 MMSCFD per well. A hydrothermal analysis was conducted to review and Verify input data, focusing on the variation of flowing well head as a function of flowrate.as well as Review available input data against the previous design input data to determine the extent of change. The steady-state and transient simulations performed with Olga yielded coherent results and confirmed the possibility of achieving flow rates of up to 60MMSCFD per well without exceeding the design temperatures, pressures, and velocities.

Keywords: Bahr Essalam, Mellitah Oil and Gas, production flow rates, steady and transient

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2245 Designing an Operational Control System for the Continuous Cycle of Industrial Technological Processes Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Teimuraz Manjapharashvili, Ketevani Manjaparashvili

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Fuzzy logic is a modeling method for complex or ill-defined systems and is a relatively new mathematical approach. Its basis is to consider overlapping cases of parameter values and define operations to manipulate these cases. Fuzzy logic can successfully create operative automatic management or appropriate advisory systems. Fuzzy logic techniques in various operational control technologies have grown rapidly in the last few years. Fuzzy logic is used in many areas of human technological activity. In recent years, fuzzy logic has proven its great potential, especially in the automation of industrial process control, where it allows to form of a control design based on the experience of experts and the results of experiments. The engineering of chemical technological processes uses fuzzy logic in optimal management, and it is also used in process control, including the operational control of continuous cycle chemical industrial, technological processes, where special features appear due to the continuous cycle and correct management acquires special importance. This paper discusses how intelligent systems can be developed, in particular, how fuzzy logic can be used to build knowledge-based expert systems in chemical process engineering. The implemented projects reveal that the use of fuzzy logic in technological process control has already given us better solutions than standard control techniques. Fuzzy logic makes it possible to develop an advisory system for decision-making based on the historical experience of the managing operator and experienced experts. The present paper deals with operational control and management systems of continuous cycle chemical technological processes, including advisory systems. Because of the continuous cycle, many features are introduced in them compared to the operational control of other chemical technological processes. Among them, there is a greater risk of transitioning to emergency mode; the return from emergency mode to normal mode must be done very quickly due to the impossibility of stopping the technological process due to the release of defective products during this period (i.e., receiving a loss), accordingly, due to the need for high qualification of the operator managing the process, etc. For these reasons, operational control systems of continuous cycle chemical technological processes have been specifically discussed, as they are different systems. Special features of such systems in control and management were brought out, which determine the characteristics of the construction of control and management systems. To verify the findings, the development of an advisory decision-making information system for operational control of a lime kiln using fuzzy logic, based on the creation of a relevant expert-targeted knowledge base, was discussed. The control system has been implemented in a real lime production plant with a lime burn kiln, which has shown that suitable and intelligent automation improves operational management, reduces the risks of releasing defective products, and, therefore, reduces costs. The special advisory system was successfully used in the said plant both for the improvement of operational management and, if necessary, for the training of new operators due to the lack of an appropriate training institution.

Keywords: chemical process control systems, continuous cycle industrial technological processes, fuzzy logic, lime kiln

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2244 Tracing Ethnic Identity through Prehistoric Paintings and Tribal Art in Central India

Authors: Indrani Chattopadhyaya

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This paper seeks to examine how identity – a cultural self-image of a group of people develops – how they live, they think, they celebrate and express their world view through language, gesture, symbols, and rituals. 'Culture' is a way of life and 'identity' is assertion of that cultural self-image practiced by the group. The way in which peoples live varies from time to time and from place to place. This variation is important for their identity. Archaeologists have classified these patterns of spacial variations as 'archaeological culture.' These cultures are identified 'self-consciously' with a particular social group indicating ethnicity. The ethnic identity as archaeological cultures also legitimizes the claims of modern groups to territory. In prehistoric research problems of ethnicity and multiculturalism, stylistic attributes significantly reflect both group membership and individuality. In India, anthropologists feel that though tribes have suffered relative isolation through history, they have remained an integral part of Indian civilization. The term 'tribe' calls for substitution with a more meaningful name with an indigenous flavour 'Adivasi' (original inhabitants of the land).While studying prehistoric rock paintings from central India - Sonbhadra (Uttar Pradesh) and Bhimbetka (Madhya Pradesh), one is struck by the similarity between stylistic attributes of painted motifs in the prehistoric rock shelters and the present day indigenous art of Kol and Bhil tribes in the area, who have not seen these prehistoric rock paintings, yet are carrying on with the tradition of painting and decorating their houses in the same way. They worship concretionary sandstone blocks with triangular laminae as Goddess, Devi, Shakti. This practice is going on since Upper Palaeolithic period confirmed by archaeological excavation. The past is legitimizing the role of the present groups by allowing them to trace their roots from earlier times.

Keywords: ethnic identity, hermeneutics, semiotics, Adivasi

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2243 Examining the Predictors of Non-Urgent Emergency Department Visits: A Population Based Study

Authors: Maher El-Masri, Jamie Crawley, Judy Bornais, Abeer Omar

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Background: Misuse of Emergency Department (ED) for non-urgent healthcare results in unnecessary crowdedness that can result in long ED waits and delays in treatment, diversion of ambulances to other hospitals, poor health outcomes for patients, and increased risk of death Objectives: The main purpose of this study was to explore the independent predictors of non-urgent ED visits in Erie St. Clair LHIN. Secondary purposes of the study include comparison of the rates of non-urgent ED visits between urban and rural hospitals Design: A secondary analysis of archived population-based data on 597,373 ED visits in southwestern Ontario Results The results suggest that older (OR = .992; 95% CI .992 – .993) and female patients (OR = .940; 95% CI .929 - .950) were less likely to visit ED for non-urgent causes. Non-urgent ED visits during the winter, spring, and fall were 13%, 5.8%, and 7.5%, respectively, lesser than they were during the summer time. The data further suggest that non-urgent visits were 19.6% and 21.3% less likely to occur in evening and overnight shifts compared to the day shift. Non-urgent visits were 2.76 times more likely to present to small community hospitals than large community hospitals. Health care providers were 1.92 times more likely to refer patients with non-urgent health problem to the ED than the decision taken by patients, family member or caretakers. Conclusion: In conclusion, our study highlights a number of important factors that are associated with inappropriate use of ED visits for non-urgent health problems. Knowledge of these factors could be used to address the issue of unnecessary ED crowdedness.

Keywords: emergency department, non-urgent visits, predictors, logistic regression

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