Search results for: commodity price uncertainties
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1633

Search results for: commodity price uncertainties

943 Salt Scarcity and Crisis Solution in Islam Perspective

Authors: Taufik Nugroho, Firsty Dzainuurahmana, Tika Widiastuti

Abstract:

The polemic about the salt crisis re-emerged, this is a classic problem in Indonesia and is still a homework that is not finished yet. This salt crisis occurs due to low productivity of salt commodities that have not been able to meet domestic demand and lack of salt productivity caused by several factors. One of the biggest factors of the crisis is the weather anomaly that disrupts salt production, less supportive technology and price stability. This study will try to discuss the salt scarcity and crisis solution in Islamic view. As for the conclusion of this study is the need for equilibrium or balancing between demand and supply, need to optimize the role of the government as Hisbah to maintain the balance of market mechanisms and prepare the stock system of salt stock by buying farmers products at reasonable prices then storing them.

Keywords: crisis, Islamic solution, scarcity, salt

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
942 Experimental and Numerical Investigation on Delaminated Composite Plate

Authors: Sreekanth T. G., Kishorekumar S., Sowndhariya Kumar J., Karthick R., Shanmugasuriyan S.

Abstract:

Composites are increasingly being used in industries due to their unique properties, such as high specific stiffness and specific strength, higher fatigue and wear resistances, and higher damage tolerance capability. Composites are prone to failures or damages that are difficult to identify, locate, and characterize due to their complex design features and complicated loading conditions. The lack of understanding of the damage mechanism of the composites leads to the uncertainties in the structural integrity and durability. Delamination is one of the most critical failure mechanisms in laminated composites because it progressively affects the mechanical performance of fiber-reinforced polymer composite structures over time. The identification and severity characterization of delamination in engineering fields such as the aviation industry is critical for both safety and economic concerns. The presence of delamination alters the vibration properties of composites, such as natural frequencies, mode shapes, and so on. In this study, numerical analysis and experimental analysis were performed on delaminated and non-delaminated glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) plate, and the numerical and experimental analysis results were compared, and error percentage has been found out.

Keywords: composites, delamination, natural frequency, mode shapes

Procedia PDF Downloads 95
941 Unknown Groundwater Pollution Source Characterization in Contaminated Mine Sites Using Optimal Monitoring Network Design

Authors: H. K. Esfahani, B. Datta

Abstract:

Groundwater is one of the most important natural resources in many parts of the world; however it is widely polluted due to human activities. Currently, effective and reliable groundwater management and remediation strategies are obtained using characterization of groundwater pollution sources, where the measured data in monitoring locations are utilized to estimate the unknown pollutant source location and magnitude. However, accurately identifying characteristics of contaminant sources is a challenging task due to uncertainties in terms of predicting source flux injection, hydro-geological and geo-chemical parameters, and the concentration field measurement. Reactive transport of chemical species in contaminated groundwater systems, especially with multiple species, is a complex and highly non-linear geochemical process. Although sufficient concentration measurement data is essential to accurately identify sources characteristics, available data are often sparse and limited in quantity. Therefore, this inverse problem-solving method for characterizing unknown groundwater pollution sources is often considered ill-posed, complex and non- unique. Different methods have been utilized to identify pollution sources; however, the linked simulation-optimization approach is one effective method to obtain acceptable results under uncertainties in complex real life scenarios. With this approach, the numerical flow and contaminant transport simulation models are externally linked to an optimization algorithm, with the objective of minimizing the difference between measured concentration and estimated pollutant concentration at observation locations. Concentration measurement data are very important to accurately estimate pollution source properties; therefore, optimal design of the monitoring network is essential to gather adequate measured data at desired times and locations. Due to budget and physical restrictions, an efficient and effective approach for groundwater pollutant source characterization is to design an optimal monitoring network, especially when only inadequate and arbitrary concentration measurement data are initially available. In this approach, preliminary concentration observation data are utilized for preliminary source location, magnitude and duration of source activity identification, and these results are utilized for monitoring network design. Further, feedback information from the monitoring network is used as inputs for sequential monitoring network design, to improve the identification of unknown source characteristics. To design an effective monitoring network of observation wells, optimization and interpolation techniques are used. A simulation model should be utilized to accurately describe the aquifer properties in terms of hydro-geochemical parameters and boundary conditions. However, the simulation of the transport processes becomes complex when the pollutants are chemically reactive. Three dimensional transient flow and reactive contaminant transport process is considered. The proposed methodology uses HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 (HGCH) as the simulation model for flow and transport processes with chemically multiple reactive species. Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used as optimization algorithm in linked simulation-optimization methodology to identify the unknown source characteristics. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to develop a methodology to optimally design an effective monitoring network for pollution source characterization with reactive species in polluted aquifers. The performance of the developed methodology will be evaluated for an illustrative polluted aquifer sites, for example an abandoned mine site in Queensland, Australia.

Keywords: monitoring network design, source characterization, chemical reactive transport process, contaminated mine site

Procedia PDF Downloads 216
940 Mini Coal Gasifier for Fulfilling Small-Scale Industries Energy Consumption in Indonesia

Authors: Muhammad Ade Andriansyah Efendi, Ika Monika

Abstract:

Mini coal gasifier (GasMin) is a small reactor that could convert coal into combustible gas or producer gas which is designed to fulfill energy needs of small-scale industries. The producer gas can be utilized for both external and internal combustion. The design of coal gasifier is suitable for community require because it is easy to handle, affordable and environmentally friendly. The feasibility study shows that the substitution of 12 kg LPG or specially 50 kg LPG into GasMin of 20 kg coal capacity per hour is very attractive. The estimation price of 20 kg coal per hour capacity GasMin is 40 million rupiahs. In the year 2016, the implementation of GasMin conducted at alumunium industry and batik industry at Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Keywords: biomass, coal, energy, gasification

Procedia PDF Downloads 311
939 Improved Blood Glucose-Insulin Monitoring with Dual-Layer Predictive Control Design

Authors: Vahid Nademi

Abstract:

In response to widely used wearable medical devices equipped with a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) and insulin pump, the advanced control methods are still demanding to get the full benefit of these devices. Unlike costly clinical trials, implementing effective insulin-glucose control strategies can provide significant contributions to the patients suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes. This study deals with a key role of two-layer insulin-glucose regulator based on model-predictive-control (MPC) scheme so that the patient’s predicted glucose profile is in compliance with the insulin level injected through insulin pump automatically. It is achieved by iterative optimization algorithm which is called an integrated perturbation analysis and sequential quadratic programming (IPA-SQP) solver for handling uncertainties due to unexpected variations in glucose-insulin values and body’s characteristics. The feasibility evaluation of the discussed control approach is also studied by means of numerical simulations of two case scenarios via measured data. The obtained results are presented to verify the superior and reliable performance of the proposed control scheme with no negative impact on patient safety.

Keywords: blood glucose monitoring, insulin pump, predictive control, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
938 Conception of a Reliable Low Cost, Autonomous Explorative Hovercraft 1

Authors: A. Brand, S. Burgalat, E. Chastel, M. Jumeline, L. Teilhac

Abstract:

The paper presents actual benefits and drawbacks of a multidirectional Hovercraft conceived with limited resources and designed for indoor exploration. Recent developments in the field have led to apparition of very powerful automotive systems capable of very high calculation and exploration in complex unknown environments. They usually propose very complex algorithms, high precision/cost sensors and sometimes have heavy calculation consumption with complex data fusion. Those systems are usually powerful but have a certain price and the benefits may not be worth the cost, especially considering their hardware limitations and their power consumption. Present approach is to build a compromise between cost, power consumption and results preciseness.

Keywords: Hovercraft, indoor exploration, autonomous, multidirectional, wireless control

Procedia PDF Downloads 402
937 Analysis of Risks in Financing Agriculture a Case of Agricultural Cooperatives in Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: Odey Moses Ogah, Felix Terhemba Ikyereve

Abstract:

The study was carried out to analyzed risks in financing agriculture by agricultural cooperatives in Benue State, Nigeria. The study made use of research questionnaires for data collection. A multistage sampling technique was used to select a sample of 210 respondents from 21 agricultural cooperatives. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were employed in data analysis. Loan defaulting (66.7%) and reduction in savings by members (51.4%) were the major causes of risks faced by agricultural cooperatives in financing agriculture in the study area. Other causes include adverse changes in commodity prices (48.6%), disaster (45.7%), among others. It was found that risks adversely influence the profitability and competition of agricultural cooperatives (82.9%). Multiple regression analysis results showed that the coefficient of multiple determinations was 0.67, implying that the explanatory variables included in the model accounted for 67% of the variation in the level of profitability of agricultural cooperatives. The number of loans, average amount of loan and the interest rate were significant and important determinants of profitability of the cooperatives. The majority of the respondents (88.6%) made use of loan guarantors as a strategy of managing loan default/no repayment. It was found that the majority (70%) of the respondents were faced with the challenge of lack of insurance cover. The study recommends that agricultural cooperative officials should be encouraged to undergo formal training and education to easily acquire administrative skills in the management of agricultural loans; Farmer's loan size should be increased and released on time to enable them to use it effectively. Policies that enhance insuring farm activities should be put in place to discourage farmers from risk aversion.

Keywords: agriculture, analysis, cooperative, finance, risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
936 Evaluating the Service Quality and Customers’ Satisfaction for Lihpaoland in Taiwan

Authors: Wan-Yu Liu, Tiffany April Lin, Yu-Chieh Tang, Yi-Lin Wang, Chieh-Hui Li

Abstract:

As the national income in Taiwan has been raised, the life style of the public has also been changed, so that the tourism industry gradually moves from a service industry to an experience economy. The Lihpaoland is one of the most popular theme parks in Taiwan. However, the related works on performance of service quality of the park have been lacking since its re-operation in 2012. Therefore, this study investigates the quality of software/hardware facilities and services of the Lihpaoland, and aims to achieve the following three goals: 1) analyzing how various sample data of tourists leads to different results for service quality of LihpaoLand; 2) analyzing how tourists respond to the service tangibility, service reliability, service responsiveness, service guarantee, and service empathy of LihpaoLand; 3) according to the theoretical and empirical results, proposing how to improve the overall facilities and services of LihpaoLand, and hoping to provide suggestions to the LihpaoLand or other related businesses to make decision. The survey was conducted on the tourists to the LihpaoLand using convenience sampling, and 400 questionnaires were collected successfully. Analysis results show that tourists paid much attention to maintenance of amusement facilities and safety of the park, and were satisfied with them, which are great advantages of the park. However, transportation around the LihpaoLand was inadequate, and the price of the Fullon hotel (which is the hotel closest to the LihpaoLand) were not accepted by tourists – more promotion events are recommended. Additionally, the shows are not diversified, and should be improved with the highest priority. Tourists did not pay attention to service personnel’s clothing and the ticket price, but they were not satisfied with them. Hence, this study recommends to design more distinctive costumes and conduct ticket promotions. Accordingly, the suggestions made in this study for LihpaoLand are stated as follows: 1) Diversified amusement facilities should be provided to satisfy the needs at different ages. 2) Cheep but tasty catering and more distinctive souvenirs should be offered. 3) Diversified propaganda schemes should be strengthened to increase number of tourists. 4) Quality and professional of the service staff should be enhanced to acquire public praise and tourists revisiting. 5) Ticket promotions in peak seasons, low seasons, and special events should be conducted. 6) Proper traffic flows should be planned and combined with technologies to reduce waiting time of tourists. 7) The features of theme landscape in LihpaoLand should be strengthened to increase willingness of the tourists with special preferences to visit the park. 8) Ticket discounts or premier points card promotions should be adopted to reward the tourists with high loyalty.

Keywords: service quality, customers’ satisfaction, theme park, Taiwan

Procedia PDF Downloads 454
935 Marketing Factors Influencing the Decision to Choose Low Cost Airlines

Authors: Noppadol Sritragool

Abstract:

The objectives of this research were to investigate the decision of passengers who choose to fry with low cost airlines and to study marketing factors which have the influence to the decision to choose each low cost airlines. This paper was a quantitative research technique. A total of 400 low cost airlines’ passengers were interviewed via English questionnaire to collect the respondents’ opinions. The findings revealed that respondents were male and female at a similar proportion. The majority had at least an undergraduate degree, have a lower management level jobs, and had income in the range of 25,000 -35,000 baht per month.. In addition, the findings also revealed that the first three marketing factors influencing the decision of the respondents to choose low-cost airlines were low price, direct flight, and online system.

Keywords: decision to choose, marketing factors, low-cost airlines

Procedia PDF Downloads 413
934 The Use of Whatsapp Platform in Spreading Fake News among Mass Communication Students of Abdu Gusau Polytechnic, Talata Mafara

Authors: Aliyu Damri

Abstract:

In every educational institution, students of mass communication receive training to report events and issues accurately and objectively in accordance with official controls. However, the complex nature of society today made it possible to use WhatsApp platform that revolutionizes the means of sharing information, ideas, and experiences. This paper examined how students in the Department of Mass Communication, Abdu Gusau Polytechnic, Talata Mafara used WhatsApp platform in spreading fake news. It used in depth interview techniques and focus group discussion with students as well as the use of published materials to gather related and relevant data. Also, the paper used procedures involved to analyze long interview content. This procedure includes observation of a useful utterance, development of expanded observation, examination of interconnection of observed comments, collective scrutiny of observation for patterns and themes, and review and analysis of the themes across all interviews for development of thesis. The result indicated that inadequate and absent of official controls guiding the conduct of online information sharing, inaccuracies and poor source verification, lack of gate keeping procedures to ensure ethical and legal provisions, bringing users into the process, sharing all information, availability of misinformation, disinformation and rumor and problem of conversation strongly encouraged the emergence of fake news. Surprisingly, the idea of information as a commodity has increased, and transparency of a source as new ethics emerged.

Keywords: disinformation, fake news, group, mass communication, misinformation, WhatsApp

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
933 Conception of a Reliable Low Cost and Autonomous Explorative Hovercraft

Authors: S. Burgalat, L. Teilhac, A. Brand, E. Chastel, M. Jumeline

Abstract:

The paper presents actual benefits and drawbacks of a multidirectional autonomous hovercraft conceived with limited resources and designed for indoor exploration. Recent developments in the field have led to the apparition of very powerful automotive systems capable of very high calculation and exploration in complex unknown environments. They usually propose very complex algorithms, high precision/cost sensors and sometimes have heavy calculation consumption with complex data fusion. These systems are usually powerful but have a certain price, and the benefits may not be worth the cost, especially considering their hardware limitations and their power consumption. The present approach is to build a compromise between cost, power consumption and results preciseness.

Keywords: hovercraft, indoor exploration, autonomous, multidirectional, wireless control

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
932 Human Rights in Cross-Border Surrogacy: An Exploratory Study Applied to Surrogacy Facilitators

Authors: Yingyi Luo

Abstract:

Cross-border commercial surrogacy, where Australians travel overseas to access reproduction through a surrogate mother, is an increasing phenomenon. This paper focuses on the role of Australian surrogacy facilitators, including lawyers, non-for-profit agents, fertility counselors, who act as intermediaries managing cross-border surrogacy arrangements in Australia. It explores the extent to which surrogacy facilitators are concerned with the human rights of children born through cross-border surrogacy, surrogate mothers in developing countries, and intended parents. Commercial surrogacy is a matter that is often cast in the language of human rights. This paper will contribute to an in-depth understanding of the dynamics between intended parents, surrogates, and surrogacy facilitators by adopting a human rights framework to inform data analysis regarding the role of facilitators. The purpose of this research is to inform debate and discussion on law reform related to surrogacy. This paper presented here centers on interviews with surrogacy facilitators in Australia and non-participant observations in Australia to generate thick, empirical data about the fertility industry. The data showed that the process of facilitating surrogacy arrangements had prompted facilitators to form a view on human rights as they applied to their works. Although facilitators claimed that the right of intended parents, surrogate mothers, and children were all taken into consideration, the researcher observed that the commercial surrogacy contracts described by these facilitators favored the interests of intended parents with the baby acting as their unique selling point. The interests and needs of surrogate mothers were not prioritized in the views or actions of facilitators. The result was a commercial transaction that entailed the purchase, through cross-border surrogacy, of a child, as a commodity, by relatively affluent intended parents from disadvantaged surrogate mothers through unfair contracts.

Keywords: cross-border surrogacy, facilitators, human rights, surrogacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 98
931 Economic Analysis of Policy Instruments for Energy Efficiency

Authors: Etidel Labidi

Abstract:

Energy efficiency improvement is one of the means to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Recently, some developed countries have implemented the tradable white certificate scheme (TWC) as a new policy instrument based on market approach to support energy efficiency improvements. The major focus of this paper is to compare the White Certificates (TWC) scheme as an innovative policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement to other policy instruments: energy taxes and regulations setting a minimum level of energy efficiency. On the basis of our theoretical discussion and numerical simulation, we show that the white certificates system is the most interesting policy instrument for saving energy because it generates the most important level of energy savings and the least increase in energy service price.

Keywords: energy savings, energy efficiency, energy policy, white certificates

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
930 Value Relevance of Accounting Information: A Study of Steel Sector in India

Authors: Pradyumna Mohanty

Abstract:

The paper aims to explore whether accounting information of Indian companies in the Steel sector are value relevant or not. Ohlson’s model which usually takes into consideration book value per share (BV) and earnings per share (EARN) has been used and the same has been expanded to include two more variables such as cash flow from operations (CFO) and return on equity (ROE). The data were collected from CMIE-Prowess data base in respect of BSE-listed steel companies and the time frame spans from 2010 to 2014. OLS regression has been used to test the value relevance of these accounting numbers. Results indicate that both CFO and BV are having significant influence on the stock price in two out of five years of study. But, BV is emerging as the most significant and highly value relevant of all the four variables during the entire period of study.

Keywords: value relevance, accounting information, book value per share, earnings per share

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
929 Effect of Rainflow Cycle Number on Fatigue Lifetime of an Arm of Vehicle Suspension System

Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

Abstract:

Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
928 Production of Alcohol from Sweet Potato

Authors: Abhishek S. Shete

Abstract:

There is nothing new in the use of alcohol made from root crops as a motor fuel. Alcohol is an excellent alternative motor fuel for petrol engines. The reason alcohol fuel has not been fully exploited is that, up until now; gasoline has been cheap, available, and easy to produce. However, nowadays, crude oil is getting scarce, and the historic price difference between alcohol and gasoline is getting narrower. Alcohol fuel can be an important part of the solution for Rwanda because there is tremendous scope to use bulk production of sweet potato into alcohol. The total sweet potato production in both seasons is found to be 1.607.296 tones/year. The average productivity of sweet potato in the country irrespective of seasons is found to be 8.9 tones/ha. If all of the available agricultural surplus were converted to ethanol, alcohol would supply less than 5% of motor fuel needs.

Keywords: root crops, sweet potato, surplus, alcohol

Procedia PDF Downloads 410
927 Microwave Security System in Museums: Design and Implementation

Authors: Dalia Elsheakh, Hala Elsadek

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to propose a competitive microwave security system that can be applied with reasonable price at museums in Egypt, considering the priceless elements in 23 Egyptian museums countrywide and the lack of good recent security systems even in big ones. The system main goal is to detect valuable targets to ensure their presence in the pre-defined positions in order to protect them from being stolen. The system is based on real time microwave scanning for the required space volume through transmitting RF waves at consecutive angles and detecting the back scattered waves from required objects to detect their existence at pre-specified locations.

Keywords: microwave security system, object locating system, real time locating system (RTLS), antenna array, array electronic scanning

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
926 Thermographic Tests of Curved GFRP Structures with Delaminations: Numerical Modelling vs. Experimental Validation

Authors: P. D. Pastuszak

Abstract:

The present work is devoted to thermographic studies of curved composite panels (unidirectional GFRP) with subsurface defects. Various artificial defects, created by inserting PTFE stripe between individual layers of a laminate during manufacturing stage are studied. The analysis is conducted both with the use finite element method and experiments. To simulate transient heat transfer in 3D model with embedded various defect sizes, the ANSYS package is used. Pulsed Thermography combined with optical excitation source provides good results for flat surfaces. Composite structures are mostly used in complex components, e.g., pipes, corners and stiffeners. Local decrease of mechanical properties in these regions can have significant influence on strength decrease of the entire structure. Application of active procedures of thermography to defect detection and evaluation in this type of elements seems to be more appropriate that other NDT techniques. Nevertheless, there are various uncertainties connected with correct interpretation of acquired data. In this paper, important factors concerning Infrared Thermography measurements of curved surfaces in the form of cylindrical panels are considered. In addition, temperature effects on the surface resulting from complex geometry and embedded and real defect are also presented.

Keywords: active thermography, composite, curved structures, defects

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925 The Value of Store Choice Criteria on Perceived Patronage Intentions

Authors: Susana Marques

Abstract:

Research on how store environment cues influence consumers’ store choice decision criteria, such as store operations, product quality, monetary price, store image and sales promotion, is sparse. Especially absent research on the simultaneous impact of multiple store environment cues. The authors propose a comprehensive store choice model that includes: three types of store environment cues as exogenous constructs; various store choice criteria as possible mediating constructs, and store patronage intentions as an endogenous construct. On the basis of testing with a sample of 561 customers of hypermarkets, the model is partially supported. This study used structural equation modelling to test the proposed model.

Keywords: store choice, store patronage, structural equation modelling, retailing

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
924 Basket Option Pricing under Jump Diffusion Models

Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

Abstract:

Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: basket option, jump diffusion, ‎radial basis function, RBF-PUM

Procedia PDF Downloads 333
923 Nonstationarity Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series

Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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922 Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method with Dynamic Normal Inverse Gaussian Mortality Index

Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

Abstract:

Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
921 Factors Affecting Time Performance in Building Construction Projects

Authors: Ibraheem A. K. Mahameed

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to identify the risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 38 risks that might affect time performance of building construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. These risks have been classified into 6 groups: project, managerial, consultant, financial, external, and construction items. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered risks in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top five risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in Palestine are: award project to the lowest price, political situation, poor communication and coordination between construction parties, change orders, and financial status of contractor.

Keywords: delay, time performance, construction, building

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920 Evaluation and Selection of Construction Contractors by Polish Public Clients

Authors: Kozik Renata, Leśniak Agnieszka, Plebankiewicz Edyta

Abstract:

Contracting authorities in the public sector are obligated to apply the principles provided for in the Polish law for the evaluation and selection of contractors. To analyze the methods of contractors, applied in practice by public clients, the notices of contract award results for construction works were analyzed. The analysis shows that the procedure selected more and more often is open to competitive bidding, where the assessment of the competence of contractors is not very precise, as well as non-competitive bidding, i.e. single source procurement. The share of procurement procedures, where the only criterion is price, is increasing. The solution to the problems existing here might be the introduction of one of the forms of pre-selection of contractors. The article also briefly discusses verification systems for companies applying for public contracts used in EU countries.

Keywords: certification, contractors selection, open tendering, public investors

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
919 Predicting Consolidation Coefficient of Busan Clay by Time-Displacement-Velocity Methods

Authors: Thang Minh Le, Hadi Khabbaz

Abstract:

The coefficient of consolidation is a parameter governing the rate at which saturated soil particularly clay undergoes consolidation when subjected to an increase in pressure. The rate and amount of compression in soil varies with the rate that pore water is lost; and hence depends on soil permeability. Over many years, various methods have been proposed to determine the coefficient of consolidation, cv, which is an indication of the rate of foundation settlement on soft ground. However, defining this parameter is often problematic and heavily relies on graphical techniques, which are subject to some uncertainties. This paper initially presents an overview of many well-established methods to determine the vertical coefficient of consolidation from the incremental loading consolidation tests. An array of consolidation tests was conducted on the undisturbed clay samples, collected at various depths from a site in Nakdong river delta, Busan, South Korea. The consolidation test results on these soft sensitive clay samples were employed to evaluate the targeted methods to predict the settlement rate of Busan clay. In relationship of time-displacement-velocity, a total of 3 method groups from 10 common procedures were classified and compared together. Discussions on study results will be also provided.

Keywords: Busan clay, coefficient of consolidation, constant rate of strain, incremental loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
918 Investigations of Effective Marketing Metric Strategies: The Case of St. George Brewery Factory, Ethiopia

Authors: Mekdes Getu Chekol, Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Rahwa Berihu Haile

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to investigate the marketing strategy practice in the Case of St. George Brewery Factory in Addis Ababa. One of the core activities in a Business Company to stay in business is having a well-developed marketing strategy. It assessed how the marketing strategies were practiced in the company to achieve its goals aligned with segmentation, target market, positioning, and the marketing mix elements to satisfy customer requirements. Using primary and secondary data, the study is conducted by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The primary data was collected through open and closed-ended questionnaires. Considering the size of the population is small, the selection of the respondents was carried out by using a census. The finding shows that the company used all the 4 Ps of the marketing mix elements in its marketing strategies and provided quality products at affordable prices by promoting its products by using high and effective advertising mechanisms. The product availability and accessibility are admirable with the practices of both direct and indirect distribution channels. On the other hand, the company has identified its target customers, and the company’s market segmentation practice is geographical location. Communication effectiveness between the marketing department and other departments is very good. The adjusted R2 model explains 61.6% of the marketing strategy practice variance by product, price, promotion, and place. The remaining 38.4% of variation in the dependent variable was explained by other factors not included in this study. The result reveals that all four independent variables, product, price, promotion, and place, have a positive beta sign, proving that predictor variables have a positive effect on that of the predicting dependent variable marketing strategy practice. Even though the marketing strategies of the company are effectively practiced, there are some problems that the company faces while implementing them. These are infrastructure problems, economic problems, intensive competition in the market, shortage of raw materials, seasonality of consumption, socio-cultural problems, and the time and cost of awareness creation for the customers. Finally, the authors suggest that the company better develop a long-range view and try to implement a more structured approach to attain information about potential customers, competitor’s actions, and market intelligence within the industry. In addition, we recommend conducting the study by increasing the sample size and including different marketing factors.

Keywords: marketing strategy, market segmentation, target marketing, market positioning, marketing mix

Procedia PDF Downloads 34
917 Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Vibration Control of an ERF Embedded Smart Structure

Authors: Chih-Jer Lin, Chun-Ying Lee, Ying Liu, Chiang-Ho Cheng

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to present the semi-active vibration control using an electro-rheological fluid embedded sandwich structure for a cantilever beam. ER fluid is a smart material, which cause the suspended particles polarize and connect each other to form chain. The stiffness and damping coefficients of the ER fluid can be changed in 10 micro seconds; therefore, ERF is suitable to become the material embedded in the tunable vibration absorber to become a smart absorber. For the ERF smart material embedded structure, the fuzzy control law depends on the experimental expert database and the proposed self-tuning strategy. The electric field is controlled by a CRIO embedded system to implement the real application. This study investigates the different performances using the Type-1 fuzzy and interval Type-2 fuzzy controllers. The Interval type-2 fuzzy control is used to improve the modeling uncertainties for this ERF embedded shock absorber. The self-tuning vibration controllers using Type-1 and Interval Type-2 fuzzy law are implemented to the shock absorber system. Based on the resulting performance, Internal Type-2 fuzzy is better than the traditional Type-1 fuzzy control for this vibration control system.

Keywords: electro-rheological fluid, semi-active vibration control, shock absorber, type 2 fuzzy control

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916 Role of Numerical Simulation as a Tool to Enhance Climate Change Adaptation and Resilient Societies: A Case Study from the Philippines

Authors: Pankaj Kumar

Abstract:

Rapid global changes resulted in unfavorable hydrological, ecological, and environmental changes and cumulatively affected natural resources. As a result, the local communities become vulnerable to water stress, poor hygiene, the spread of diseases, food security, etc.. However, the central point for this vulnerability revolves around water resources and the way people interrelate with the hydrological system. Also, most of the efforts to minimize the adverse effect of global changes are centered on the mitigation side. Hence, countries with poor adaptive capacities and poor governance suffer most in case of disasters. However, several transdisciplinary numerical tools are well designed and are capable of answering “what-if questions” through scenario analysis using a system approach. This study has predicted the future water environment in Marikina River in the National Capital Region, Metro Manila of Philippines, using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), an integrated water resource management tool. Obtained results can answer possible adaptation measures along with their associated uncertainties. It also highlighted various challenges for the policy planners to design adaptation countermeasures as well as to track the progress of achieving SDG 6.0.

Keywords: water quality, Philippines, climate change adaptation, hydrological simulation, wastewater management, weap

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915 Ethicality of Algorithmic Pricing and Consumers’ Resistance

Authors: Zainab Atia, Hongwei He, Panagiotis Sarantopoulos

Abstract:

Over the past few years, firms have witnessed a massive increase in sophisticated algorithmic deployment, which has become quite pervasive in today’s modern society. With the wide availability of data for retailers, the ability to track consumers using algorithmic pricing has become an integral option in online platforms. As more companies are transforming their businesses and relying more on massive technological advancement, pricing algorithmic systems have brought attention and given rise to its wide adoption, with many accompanying benefits and challenges to be found within its usage. With the overall aim of increasing profits by organizations, algorithmic pricing is becoming a sound option by enabling suppliers to cut costs, allowing better services, improving efficiency and product availability, and enhancing overall consumer experiences. The adoption of algorithms in retail has been pioneered and widely used in literature across varied fields, including marketing, computer science, engineering, economics, and public policy. However, what is more, alarming today is the comprehensive understanding and focus of this technology and its associated ethical influence on consumers’ perceptions and behaviours. Indeed, due to algorithmic ethical concerns, consumers are found to be reluctant in some instances to share their personal data with retailers, which reduces their retention and leads to negative consumer outcomes in some instances. This, in its turn, raises the question of whether firms can still manifest the acceptance of such technologies by consumers while minimizing the ethical transgressions accompanied by their deployment. As recent modest research within the area of marketing and consumer behavior, the current research advances the literature on algorithmic pricing, pricing ethics, consumers’ perceptions, and price fairness literature. With its empirical focus, this paper aims to contribute to the literature by applying the distinction of the two common types of algorithmic pricing, dynamic and personalized, while measuring their relative effect on consumers’ behavioural outcomes. From a managerial perspective, this research offers significant implications that pertain to providing a better human-machine interactive environment (whether online or offline) to improve both businesses’ overall performance and consumers’ wellbeing. Therefore, by allowing more transparent pricing systems, businesses can harness their generated ethical strategies, which fosters consumers’ loyalty and extend their post-purchase behaviour. Thus, by defining the correct balance of pricing and right measures, whether using dynamic or personalized (or both), managers can hence approach consumers more ethically while taking their expectations and responses at a critical stance.

Keywords: algorithmic pricing, dynamic pricing, personalized pricing, price ethicality

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914 Musharakah Mutanaqisah Partnership as a Tool for House Financing, Its Sustainability and Issues

Authors: Imran Mehboob Shaikh, Kamaruzaman Noordin

Abstract:

Musharakah Mutanaqisah or Diminishing Partnership is a derivative of Musharakah contract, which is used by Islamic banks for housing finance facility. Most of the banks offer housing finance based on the concept of Musharakah Mutanaqisah, apart from few which still offer housing finance using BBA, Tawarruq (commodity Murabahah) and Istisna. This research attempts to compare the practice of DP housing finance offered in Malaysia. This paper will further look into challenges in Musharakah Mutanaqisah practice and its sustainability as a mortgage product. In practice there are certain issues related to Musharakah Mutanaqisah also known as Musharakah al Muntaiah bi tamlik, widely accepted and mostly used for housing finance by the Islamic banks. In Malaysia, it is in transforming stage from Bay bithamman Ajil, which is mostly used for housing finance in ASEAN region i.e., Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. In order to conduct this study, a discussion was carried out with few researchers who had worked on the topic previously and some Islamic bank officers attached to a full-fledged Islamic bank in Malaysia. Apart from that previous literature on Musharakah Mutanaqisah was also reviewed and various books, as well as online data, was considered for this study, and websites of different Islamic banks with information for Diminishing partnership, home financing were retrieved. This paper will highlight issues surrounding Diminishing Partnership contract and its conformity to Maqasid al Shariah (objectives of Shariah). Diminishing Partnership is widely accepted in different parts of the world and is mostly used for housing finance. The future prospect of DP is believed to be affirmative. As the product is a better substitute for BBA and most of the Islamic banks around the world have utilized their housing portfolio using the contract but at the same time, there are certain issues that need to be overcome. Even though Islamic banks are striving to sustain and compete the conventional banks but securing the customers from Gharar and other issues should be the primary objective of Islamic financial institutions.

Keywords: BBA, home financing, musharakah mutanaqisah, tawarruq

Procedia PDF Downloads 322