Search results for: learning pattern
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9314

Search results for: learning pattern

2444 The EU Omnipotence Paradox: Inclusive Cultural Policies and Effects of Exclusion

Authors: Emmanuel Pedler, Elena Raevskikh, Maxime Jaffré

Abstract:

Can the cultural geography of European cities be durably managed by European policies? To answer this question, two hypotheses can be proposed. (1) Either European cultural policies are able to erase cultural inequalities between the territories through the creation of new areas of cultural attractiveness in each beneficiary neighborhood, city or country. Or, (2) each European region historically rooted in a number of endogenous socio-historical, political or demographic factors is not receptive to exogenous political influences. Thus, the cultural attractiveness of a territory is difficult to measure and to impact by top-down policies in the long term. How do these two logics - European and local - interact and contribute to the emergence of a valued, popular sense of a common European cultural identity? Does this constant interaction between historical backgrounds and new political concepts encourage a positive identification with the European project? The European cultural policy programs, such as ECC (European Capital of Culture), seek to develop new forms of civic cohesion through inclusive and participative cultural events. The cultural assets of a city elected ‘ECC’ are mobilized to attract a wide range of new audiences, including populations poorly integrated into local cultural life – and consequently distant from pre-existing cultural offers. In the current context of increasingly heterogeneous individual perceptions of Europe, the ECC program aims to promote cultural forms and institutions that should accelerate both territorial and cross-border European cohesion. The new cultural consumption pattern is conceived to stimulate integration and mobility, but also to create a legitimate and transnational ideal European citizen type. Our comparative research confronts contrasting cases of ‘European Capitals of Culture’ from the south and from the north of Europe, cities recently concerned by the ECC political mechanism and cities that were elected ECC in the past, multi-centered cultural models vs. highly centralized cultural models. We aim to explore the impacts of European policies on the urban cultural geography, but also to understand the current obstacles for its efficient implementation.

Keywords: urbanism, cultural policies, cultural institutions, european cultural capitals, heritage industries, exclusion effects

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2443 Designing Short-Term Study Abroad Programs for Graduate Students: The Case of Morocco

Authors: Elaine Crable, Amit Sen

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Short-term study abroad programs have become a mainstay of MBA programs. The benefits of international business experiences, along with its exposure to global cultures, are well documented. However, developing a rewarding study, abroad program at the graduate level can be challenging for Faculty, especially when devising such a program for a group of part-time MBA students who come with a wide range of experiences and demographic characteristics. Each student has individual expectations for the study abroad experience. This study provides suggestions and considerations for Faculty that are planning to design a short-term study abroad program, especially for part-time MBA students. Insights are based on a recent experience leading a group of twenty-one students on a ten-day program to Morocco. The trip was designed and facilitated by two faculty members and a local Moroccan facilitator. This experience led to a number of insights and recommendations. First, the choice of location is critical. The choice of Morocco was very deliberate, owing to its multi-faceted cultural landscape and international business interest. It is an Islamic State with close ties to Europe both culturally and geographically and Morocco is a multi-lingual country with some combination of three languages spoken by most – English, Arabic, and French. Second, collaboration with a local ‘academic’ partner allowed the level of instruction to be both rigorous and significantly more engaging. Third, allowing students to participate in the planning of the trip enabled the trip participants to collaborate, negotiate, and share their own experiences and strengths. The pre-trip engagement was structured by creating four sub-groups, each responsible for an assigned city. Each student sub-group had to provide a historical background of the assigned city, plan the itinerary including sites to visit, cuisine to experience, industries to explore, markets to visit, plus provide a budget for that city’s expenses. The pre-planning segment of the course was critical for the success of the program as students were able to contribute to the design of the program through collaboration and negotiation with their peers. Fourth, each student sub-group was assigned industry to study within Morocco. The student sub-group prepared a presentation and a group paper with their analysis of the chosen industries. The pre-planning activities created strong bonds among the trip participants, which was evident when faced with on-ground challenges, especially when it was necessary to quickly evacuate due to a surprise USA COVID evacuation notice. The entire group supported each other when quickly making their way back to the United States. Unfortunately, the trip was cut short by two days due to this emergency exit, but the feedback regarding the program was very positive all around. While the program design put pressure on the Faculty leads regarding planning and coordination upfront, the outcome in terms of student engagement, student learning, collaboration and negotiation were all favorable and worth the effort. Finally, an added value, the cost of the program for the student was significantly lower compared to running a program with a professional provider.

Keywords: business education, experiential learning, international education, study abroad

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2442 A Measurement and Motor Control System for Free Throw Shots in Basketball Using Gyroscope Sensor

Authors: Niloofar Zebarjad

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This research aims at finding a tool to provide basketball players with real-time audio feedback on their shooting form in free throw shots. Free throws played a pivotal role in taking the lead in fierce competitions. The major problem in performing an accurate free throw seems to be improper training. Since the arm movement during the free throw shot is complex, the coach or the athlete might miss the movement details during practice. Hence, there is a necessity to create a system that measures arm movements' critical characteristics and control for improper kinematics. The proposed setup in this study quantifies arm kinematics and provides real-time feedback as an audio signal consisting of a gyroscope sensor. Spatial shoulder angle data are transmitted in a mobile application in real-time and can be saved and processed for statistical and analysis purposes. The proposed system is easy to use, inexpensive, portable, and real-time applicable. Objectives: This research aims to modify and control the free throw using audio feedback and determine if and to what extent the new setup reduces errors in arm formations during throws and finally assesses the successful throw rate. Methods: One group of elite basketball athletes and two novice athletes (control and study group) participated in this study. Each group contains 5 participants being studied in three separate sessions over a week. Results: Empirical results showed enhancements in the free throw shooting style, shot pocket (SP), and locked position (LP). The mean values of shoulder angle were controlled on 25° and 45° for SP and LP, respectively, recommended by valid FIBA references. Conclusion: Throughout the experiments, the system helped correct and control the shoulder angles toward the targeted pattern of shot pocket (SP) and locked position (LP). According to the desired results for arm motion, adding another sensor to measure and control the elbow angle is recommended.

Keywords: audio-feedback, basketball, free-throw, locked-position, motor-control, shot-pocket

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2441 Satellite Based Assessment of Urban Heat Island Effects on Major Cities of Pakistan

Authors: Saad Bin Ismail, Muhammad Ateeq Qureshi, Rao Muhammad Zahid Khalil

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In the last few decades, urbanization worldwide has been sprawled manifold, which is denunciated in the growth of urban infrastructure and transportation. Urban Heat Island (UHI) can induce deterioration of the living environment, disabilities, and rises in energy usages. In this study, the prevalence/presence of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect in major cities of Pakistan, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar has been investigated. Landsat and SPOT satellite images were acquired for the assessment of urban sprawl. MODIS Land Surface Temperature product MOD11A2 was acquired between 1000-1200 hours (local time) for assessment of urban heat island. The results of urban sprawl informed that the extent of Islamabad and Rawalpindi urban area increased from 240 km2 to 624 km2 between 2000 and 2016, accounted 24 km2 per year, Lahore 29 km2, accounted 1.6 km2 per year, Karachi 261 km2, accounted for 16 km2/ per year, Peshawar 63 km2, accounted 4 km2/per year, and Quetta 76 km2/per year, accounted 5 km2/per year approximately. The average Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) magnitude is observed at a scale of 0.63 ᵒC for Islamabad and Rawalpindi, 1.25 ᵒC for Lahore, and 1.16 ᵒC for Karachi, which is 0.89 ᵒC for Quetta, and 1.08 ᵒC for Peshawar from 2000 to 2016. The pixel-based maximum SUHI intensity reaches up to about 11.40 ᵒC for Islamabad and Rawalpindi, 15.66 ᵒC for Lahore, 11.20 ᵒC for Karachi, 14.61 ᵒC for Quetta, and 15.22 ᵒC for Peshawar from the baseline of zero degrees Centigrade (ᵒC). The overall trend of SUHI in planned cities (e.g., Islamabad) is not found to increase significantly. Spatial and temporal patterns of SUHI for selected cities reveal heterogeneity and a unique pattern for each city. It is well recognized that SUHI intensity is modulated by land use/land cover patterns (due to their different surface properties and cooling rates), meteorological conditions, and anthropogenic activities. The study concluded that the selected cities (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar) are examples where dense urban pockets observed about 15 ᵒC warmer than a nearby rural area.

Keywords: urban heat island , surface urban heat island , urbanization, anthropogenic source

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2440 Collaborative Learning Aspect for Training Hip and Knee Joint Anatomy

Authors: Nasir Mustafa

Abstract:

One of the prerequisites required for an efficient diagnosis in a medical practice is to have a strong command of both functional and clinical anatomy. In this study, we introduce a new collaborative approach to the effective teaching of the knee and hip joints. In the present teaching model, anatomists, orthopedists and physical therapists present the anatomy of the hip and knee joints in small groups. Courses for the hip and knee joints were scheduled during the early stages of the medical curriculum. Students of nursing and physical therapy were grouped together to sensitize to the importance of a collaborative effort. The study results clearly demonstrate that nursing students and physical therapy students appreciated this teaching approach. The collaborative approach further proved to be a suitable method to teach both functional and clinical anatomy of the hip and knee joints. Aside from this training, a collaborative approach between medical students and physical therapy students was also successful for a healthcare organization.

Keywords: hip and knee joint anatomy, collaborative, Anatomy teaching, Nursing students, Physiotherapy students

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2439 French Language Teaching in Nigeria and Future with Technology

Authors: Chidiebere Samuel Ijeoma

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The impact and importance of technology in all domains of existence cannot be overemphasized. It is like a double-edged sword which can be both constructive and destructive. The paper, therefore, tends to evaluate the impact of technology so far in the teaching and learning of French language in Nigeria. According to the study, the traditional methods of teaching French as a Foreign Language and recognized as our cultural methods of knowledge transfer are being fast replaced by digitalization in teaching. This, the research tends to portray and suggest the best way forward. In the Nigerian Primary Education System, the use of some local and cultural Instructional materials (teaching aids) is now almost history which the paper frowns at. Consequently, the study has these questions to ask?; Where are the chalks and blackboards? Where are the ‘Handworks’ (local brooms) submitted by school children as part of their Continuous Assessment? Finally, the research is in no way against the application of technology in the Nigerian French Language Teaching System but tries to draw a curtain between Technological methods of teaching French as a Foreign Language and the Original Nigerian System of teaching the language before the arrival of technology.

Keywords: French language teaching, future, impact, importance of technology

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2438 Qatari Licensure System: Giving Voice to Educators at Government-Funded Schools

Authors: Abdullah Abu-Tineh, Hissa Sadiq, Fatma Al-Mutawah, Youmen Chabaan

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The current study examined the experiences of educators in Qatar with the licensure process currently implemented at government schools. Using a survey study design, a total of 1,669 participants expressed their perceptions on the strengths and weaknesses of the licensure system, the professional standards, and the professional portfolio. Findings included participants’ beliefs on the importance of the licensure system in improving their performance, the necessity of using the professional standards as tools for professional growth and development, the importance of refining the professional portfolio for authenticity and reliability, and the inclusion of multiple sources of evidence, such as classroom observations, interviews, student learning outcomes, and surveys. Documenting teachers’ and school leaders’ voices was fundamental in finding ways to successfully drive future developments of the licensure system. The findings may also provide implications for other countries interested in developing or refining their own appraisal systems.

Keywords: licensure system, educator voice, professional standards, professional portfolio

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2437 Implementation of Hybrid Curriculum in Canadian Dental Schools to Manage Child Abuse and Neglect

Authors: Priyajeet Kaur Kaleka

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Introduction: A dentist is often the first responder in the battle for a patient’s healthy body and maybe the first health professional to observe signs of child abuse, be it physical, emotional, and/or sexual mistreatment. Therefore, it is an ethical responsibility for the dental clinician to detect and report suspected cases of child abuse and neglect (CAN). The main reasons for not reporting suspected cases of CAN, with special emphasis on the third: 1) Uncertainty of the diagnosis, 2) Lack of knowledge of the reporting procedure, and 3) Child abuse and neglect somewhat remained the subject of ignorance among dental professionals because of a lack of advance clinical training. Given these epidemic proportions, there is a scope of further research about dental school curriculum design. Purpose: This study aimed to assess the knowledge and attitude of dentists in Canada regarding signs and symptoms of child abuse and neglect (CAN), reporting procedures, and whether educational strategies followed by dental schools address this sensitive issue. In pursuit of that aim, this abstract summarizes the evidence related to this question. Materials and Methods: Data was collected through a specially designed questionnaire adapted and modified from the author’s previous cross-sectional study on (CAN), which was conducted in Pune, India, in 2016 and is available on the database of PubMed. Design: A random sample was drawn from the targeted population of registered dentists and dental students in Canada regarding their knowledge, professional responsibilities, and behavior concerning child abuse. Questionnaire data were distributed to 200 members. Out of which, a total number of 157 subjects were in the final sample for statistical analysis, yielding response of 78.5%. Results: Despite having theoretical information on signs and symptoms, 55% of the participants indicated they are not confident to detect child physical abuse cases. 90% of respondents believed that recognition and handling the CAN cases should be a part of undergraduate training. Only 4.5% of the participants have correctly identified all signs of abuse due to inadequate formal training in dental schools and workplaces. Although nearly 96.3% agreed that it is a dentist’s legal responsibility to report CAN, only a small percentage of the participants reported an abuse case in the past. While 72% stated that the most common factor that might prevent a dentist from reporting a case was doubt over the diagnosis. Conclusion: The goal is to motivate dental schools to deal with this critical issue and provide their students with consummate training to strengthen their capability to care for and protect children. The educational institutions should make efforts to spread awareness among dental students regarding the management and tackling of CAN. Clinical Significance: There should be modifications in the dental school curriculum focusing on problem-based learning models to assist graduates to fulfill their legal and professional responsibilities. CAN literacy should be incorporated into the dental curriculum, which will eventually benefit future dentists to break this intergenerational cycle of violence.

Keywords: abuse, child abuse and neglect, dentist knowledge, dental school curriculum, problem-based learning

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2436 The Persistence of Abnormal Return on Assets: An Exploratory Analysis of the Differences between Industries and Differences between Firms by Country and Sector

Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

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This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

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2435 An Ethno-Scientific Approach for Restoration of South Indian Heritage Rice Varieties

Authors: A. Sathya, C. Manojkumar, D. Visithra

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The South Indian peninsula has rich diversity of both heritage and conventional rice varieties. With the prime focus set on high yield and increased productivity, a number of traditional/heritage rice varieties have dwindled into the forgotten past. At present, in the face of climate change, the hybrids and conventional varieties struggle for sustainable yield. The need of copious irrigation and high nutrient inputs for the hybrids and conventional varieties have cornered the farming and research community to resort to heritage rice varieties for their sturdy survival capability. An ethno-scientific effort has been taken in the Cauvery delta tracts of South India to restore these traditional/heritage rice varieties. A closer field level performance evaluation under organic condition has been undertaken for 10 heritage rice varieties. The morpho-agronomic characterization across vegetative and reproductive stages have revealed a pattern of variation in duration, plant height, number of tillers, productive tillers, etc. The shortest duration was recorded for a variety with the vernacular name of ‘Arubadaam kuruvai’. A traditional rice variety called ‘Maapillai samba’ is claimed to impart instant energy. The supernatant water of the overnight soaked cooked rice of Maapillai samba is a source of instant energy. The physico-chemical analysis of this variety is being explored for its instant nutritional boosting ability. Wide spectrum of nutritional characters including palatability and marketability preferences has also been analyzed for all these 10 heritage rice varieties. A ‘Farmer’s harvest day festival’ was organized, providing opportunity for the ‘Cauvery delta farmers’ to identify the special features and exchange their views on these standing golden ripe paddy varieties directly. The airing of their ethnic knowledge pooled with interesting scientific investigations of these 10 rich heritage rice varieties of South India undertaken will be elaborately discussed enlightening the perspectives on the pathway of resurrection and restoration of this heritage of the past.

Keywords: biodiversity, conservation, heritage, rice, traditional, varieties

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2434 Application of Artificial Neural Network in Assessing Fill Slope Stability

Authors: An-Jui. Li, Kelvin Lim, Chien-Kuo Chiu, Benson Hsiung

Abstract:

This paper details the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of slope stability whereby quick and convenient solutions can be obtained using the developed tool. The AI tool used in this study is the artificial neural network (ANN), while the slope stability analysis methods are the finite element limit analysis methods. The developed tool allows for the prompt prediction of the safety factors of fill slopes and their corresponding probability of failure (depending on the degree of variation of the soil parameters), which can give the practicing engineer a reasonable basis in their decision making. In fact, the successful use of the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm shows that slope stability analysis is no longer confined to the conventional methods of modeling, which at times may be tedious and repetitive during the preliminary design stage where the focus is more on cost saving options rather than detailed design. Therefore, similar ANN-based tools can be further developed to assist engineers in this aspect.

Keywords: landslide, limit analysis, artificial neural network, soil properties

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2433 Morphological Investigation of Sprawling Along Emerging Peri-Urban Transit Corridor of Mowe-Ibafo Axis of the Lagos Megacity Region

Authors: Folayele Oluyemi Akindeju, Tobi Joseph Ajoro

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The city as a complex system exhibiting chaotic behaviour is in a state of constant change, in response to prevailing social, economic, environmental and technological factors. Without adequate investigation and control mechanisms to tame the sporadic nature of growth in most urban areas of cities in developing regions, organic sprawling visibly manifests with its attendant problems, most especially at peri-urban areas. The Lagos Megacity region in southwest Nigeria, as one of the largest megacities in the world contends with the challenges of sprawling at the peri-urban areas especially along emerging transit corridors. Due to the seemingly unpredictable nature of this growth, this paper attempts a morphological investigation into the growth of peri-urban settlements along the Mowe-Ibafo transit corridor of the Megacity region over a temporal space of three decades (1984-2014). This study adopts the application of the Fractal Analysis and Regression Analysis methods through the correlation of population density and fractal dimension values to establish the pattern and nature of growth, due to the inadequacies of conventional methods of urban analysis which cannot deal with the unpredictability of such complex urban forms as the peri-urban areas. It was deduced that the dynamic urban expansion in the last three decades resulted in about 74.2% urban change rate between 1984 and 2000 and 63.4% urban change rate between 2000 and 2014. With the R2 value between the fractal dimension and population density been 1, the regression model indicates a positive correlation between Fractal Dimension (D) and Population Density (pop/km2), where the increase in the population density from 5740 pop/km2 to 8060 pop/km2 and later decrease to 7580 pop/km2 leads to an increase in the fractal dimension of urban growth from 1.451 in 1984 to 1.853 in 2014. This, therefore, justifies the ability to predict and determine the nature and direction of growth of complex entities and is sufficient to substantially suggest the need for adequate policy framework towards sustainable urban planning and infrastructural provision in the Peri-urban areas.

Keywords: fractal analysis, Lagos Megacity, peri-urban, sprawling, urban morphology

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2432 Predictive Models of Ruin Probability in Retirement Withdrawal Strategies

Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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2431 Presence and Severity of Language Deficits in Comprehension, Production and Pragmatics in a Group of ALS Patients: Analysis with Demographic and Neuropsychological Data

Authors: M. Testa, L. Peotta, S. Giusiano, B. Lazzolino, U. Manera, A. Canosa, M. Grassano, F. Palumbo, A. Bombaci, S. Cabras, F. Di Pede, L. Solero, E. Matteoni, C. Moglia, A. Calvo, A. Chio

Abstract:

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease of adulthood, which primarily affects the central nervous system and is characterized by progressive bilateral degeneration of motor neurons. The degeneration processes in ALS extend far beyond the neurons of the motor system, and affects cognition, behaviour and language. To outline the prevalence of language deficits in an ALS cohort and explore their profile along with demographic and neuropsychological data. A full neuropsychological battery and language assessment was administered to 56 ALS patients. Neuropsychological assessment included tests of executive functioning, verbal fluency, social cognition and memory. Language was assessed using tests for verbal comprehension, production and pragmatics. Patients were cognitively classified following the Revised Consensus Criteria and divided in three groups showing different levels of language deficits: group 1 - no language deficit; group 2 - one language deficit; group 3 - two or more language deficits. Chi-square for independence and non-parametric measures to compare groups were applied. Nearly half of ALS-CN patients (48%) reported one language test under the clinical cut-off, and only 13% of patents classified as ALS-CI showed no language deficits, while the rest 87% of ALS-CI reported two or more language deficits. ALS-BI and ALS-CBI cases all reported two or more language deficits. Deficits in production and in comprehension appeared more frequent in ALS-CI patients (p=0.011, p=0.003 respectively), with a higher percentage of comprehension deficits (83%). Nearly all ALS-CI reported at least one deficit in pragmatic abilities (96%) and all ALS-BI and ALS-CBI patients showed pragmatic deficits. Males showed higher percentage of pragmatic deficits (97%, p=0.007). No significant differences in language deficits have been found between bulbar and spinal onset. Months from onset and level of impairment at testing (ALS-FRS total score) were not significantly different between levels and type of language impairment. Age and education were significantly higher for cases showing no deficits in comprehension and pragmatics and in the group showing no language deficits. Comparing performances at neuropsychological tests among the three levels of language deficits, no significant differences in neuropsychological performances were found between group 1 and 2; compared to group 1, group 3 appeared to decay specifically on executive testing, verbal/visuospatial learning, and social cognition. Compared to group 2, group 3 showed worse performances specifically in tests of working memory and attention. Language deficits have found to be spread in our sample, encompassing verbal comprehension, production and pragmatics. Our study reveals that also cognitive intact patients (ALS-CN) showed at least one language deficit in 48% of cases. Pragmatic domain is the most compromised (84% of the total sample), present in nearly all ALS-CI (96%), likely due to the influence of executive impairment. Lower age and higher education seem to preserve comprehension, pragmatics and presence of language deficits. Finally, executive functions, verbal/visuospatial learning and social cognition differentiate the group with no language deficits from the group with a clinical language impairment (group 3), while attention and working memory differentiate the group with one language deficit from the clinical impaired group.

Keywords: amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, language assessment, neuropsychological assessment, language deficit

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2430 Using Design Sprint For Software Engineering Undergraduate Student Projects: A Method Paper

Authors: Sobhani U. Pilapitiya, Tharanga Peiris

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Software Engineering curriculums generally consist of industry-based practices such as project-based learning (PBL) which mainly focuses on efficient and innovative product development. These approaches can be tailored and used in project-based modules in software engineering curriculums. However, there are very limited attempts in the area especially related to the Sri Lankan context. This paper describes a tailored pedagogical approach and its results of using design sprint which can be used for project-based modules in SE curriculums. A controlled group of second-year software engineering students was selected for the study. The study results indicate that 100% of students agreed that the Design Sprint approach is effective in group-based projects and 83% of students stated that it minimized the re-work compared to traditional project approaches. The tailored process was effective, easy to implement and produced desired results at the end of the session while providing students an enjoyable experience.

Keywords: design sprint, PBL, software engineering, curriculum

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2429 Application of Heritage Clay Roof Tiles in Malaysia’s Government Buildings: Conservation Challenges

Authors: Mohd Sabere Sulaiman, Masyitah Abd Aziz, Norsiah Hassan, Jamilah Halina Abdul Halim, Mohd Saipul Asrafi Haron

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The use of clay roof tiles was spread out through Asia and Europe, including Malaysia, since the early 17th Century. Most of the common type of clay roof tiles are used in a flat and rectangular shape, measurement, styles, and characteristics through each tradition and interest, including responsive to the climate. Various types of heritage clay roof tiles were used in Malaysia’s Government Buildings dated 1865, 1919, 1936, and so forth, which mostly were imported from India, France, and Italy. Until now, these heritage clay roof tiles are still found throughout Malaysia, including the ‘Interlocking’ clay roof tile type. This study is to investigate and overview the existence of heritage clay roof tiles used in Malaysia; the ‘interlocking’ type with ‘lip’ and ‘hooks’, through literature reviews as desktop study besides carried out a preliminary observation on various sites and interviews. From the literatures, the last production and used of the local heritage clay roof tiles in Malaysia dated in mid 1900s in Batu Arang, Selangor. The brick factory was abandoned since early 2000s. Although the modern ‘Interlocking’ type were produced to duplicate its form, pattern, and size of the original one, they still facing the problem to blend and merged, which end up dismantling the original version, or replacing one to one condition and even replaced overall with the modern materials. This is quite contradicting with the basic principles of building conservation and had become a challenge. Initial findings from the preliminary observation on site in various state in Malaysia shows some evidence that the heritage clay roof tiles are still intact and been used. Some of them might change to modern roof materials such as metal deck, probably due to easy maintenance and cheaper. Also, some are still struggling to maintain and retain its looks and authenticity of the roof while facing the increasing of material cost. Those improper alteration and changes made is due to lack of knowledge among the owner and end user. Various aspect needs to be considered in order to sustain its usage and its original looks by looking at the proper maintenance aspects of the heritage clay roof tiles to prolong the building life for future generation preferences.

Keywords: challenges, clay, interlocking, maintenance

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2428 Research on Reservoir Lithology Prediction Based on Residual Neural Network and Squeeze-and- Excitation Neural Network

Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

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Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir, seismic attributes

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2427 Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis Pathogens in Malaysian Hospitals: Determining Empiric Antibiotic

Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Treatment of suspected early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is essential. However, information regarding EONS pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The inclusion criteria were neonates with blood culture taken prior to empiric antibiotics administration and within 72 hours of life. Of the study group, a total of 734 (82%) cases had documented blood culture that met the inclusion criteria. Proven EONS (as confirmed by positive blood culture) was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). In addition, other common gram positive organism isolated were Coagulase negative staphylococci (7) followed by Bacillus sp. (5) and Streptococcus pneumonia (2), and only one case isolated with GBS, Streptococcus spp. and Enterococcus sp. Meanwhile, only five cases of gram negative organisms [Stenotropomonas (xantho) maltophi (1), Haemophilus influenza (1), Spingomonas paucimobilis (1), Enterobacter gergoviae (1) and E. coli (1)] were isolated. A total of 286 (39%) cases were exposed to intrapartum antibiotics and of those, 157 (21.4%) were administered prior to delivery. All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male, surfactant, caesarean delivery and prolonged rapture of membrane >18hours were a possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance. However, by analyzing isolated pathogens it can be used as treatment guidance in managing suspected EONS.

Keywords: early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative

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2426 Geometric-Morphometric Analysis of Head, Pronotum and Elytra of Brontispa Longissima Gestro in Selected Provinces of the Philippines

Authors: Ana Marie T. Acevedo

Abstract:

This study was conducted to describe variations in the shapes of the elytra, head and pronotum of populations of adult Brontispa longissima (Gestro) infesting coconut farms from selected areas in the Philippines using Cluster Analysis, Relative Warp Analysis coupled with box plot and histograms and Procustean analysis. The data used in this study included shape residuals captured using the method of landmark based geometric morphometrics. Results: The results of the cluster analyses based on the average shapes of the elytra, head and pronotum shows no consistent pattern of similarity between and among five populations of B. longissima. When localized variations using Relative Warp Analysis coupled with box plot and histograms was done, the findings revealed that RWA was only successful in summarizing variations using two relative warps in the shape of the elytra where the first two warps contained 86.29% of the variations of the female and 85.48% for the males. For the head and pronotum, the first two relative warps captured less than 50% of the overall variation. Looking at the shapes of the frequency histograms, all were found to follow a unimodal distribution. The box plots reveal no consistent results. Among the three characters studied only the elytra were more robust and reliable compared to head and pronotum and then Tandag differ from the rest of the other over-lapping populations. On the other hand, Procustean Analyses revealed that elytra were more spread in the posterior region both in male and female. The coordinates in head and pronotum were evenly distributed. In the overlapping consensus configurations show that variability was exaggerated in the right side of the elytra and the posterior parts of the head and pronotum. Results also showed expansion among females while compression among males in elytra. For males, expansion are localized in the posterior part of the elytra, For the head, results showed asymmetry in the distribution of expansion areas where expansion are observed in the right postero-lateral aspect of the female head. Conclusion: The overall results may imply that they might belong to one operational taxonomic unit or ecotype or biotype. Geography might not be the factor responsible for the differentiation of the populations of B. longissima.

Keywords: cluster analysis, relative warp analysis, procrustean analysis, environmental parameters

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2425 The Efficacy of a Student Designed and Led Near Peer Anatomy Teaching

Authors: Mark Heads, Carrie Adamson

Abstract:

Introduction This study evaluated the educational merits of the teaching activities of ‘Sheffield Anatomy Society,’ a student society with minimal faculty oversight which delivers near peer teaching in a range of formats to support students in their revision. Near peer, teaching is defined as teaching delivered by more senior students who have themselves recently completed the course content. This study was conducted between early April and late May 2022. This programme aims to improve student knowledge of anatomy, increase student confidence in their anatomy learning and cultivate a sense of community. The sessions were delivered by more senior medical students and by medical students undertaking an intercalated Master's degree in Human Anatomy with Education. Background: The majority of studies concerning near peer teaching focus on faculty designed programmes. Few studies have examined entirely student led near peer teaching of anatomy. Existing studies have been favourable but have limited qualitative examination of the benefits and weaknesses of near peer teaching. Various drawbacks have been proposed in the literature but not extensively investigated in practice. This study examines student led near peer anatomy teaching across a range of formats and considers these proposed criticisms. Methods: The teaching series consisted of 11 online lectures, a small group teaching session, two in person mock spotter examinations, and an online mock examination. Feedback forms were given for each session, and follow up interviews were conducted. Thematic analysis utilising an interpretivist epistemology was conducted on the feedback form responses and interview transcripts. Findings: 207 first year medical students, 34 second year biomedical science students, and 12 third year biomedical science students completed one or more feedback forms following these sessions, with 875 responses being collected in total. Six interviews were conducted. 99.5% of respondents said that they would recommend these sessions to other students. The quantitative results ranged from a mean of 4.6-4.8/5 per session when asked to rate how useful the students found it. Qualitative: analysis yielded numerous strengths and some weaknesses of the programme. The most commonly cited strength was that students found the explanations readily comprehensible. Students also praised the interactive nature of the sessions, with students frequently saying they felt more able to engage with interactive elements and ask questions in these sessions than in faculty teaching. Students did, however, raise some issues. The most common drawback students mentioned was a desire for more help preparing for their examinations, especially more examination style questions. Criticisms of the teaching itself were less prominent and typically reflected time constraints and limited resources. Conclusions : This study suggests student organised near peer teaching, utilising interactive online lectures, small group teaching, and mock examinations, can be an effective method for supporting students studying anatomy. Students reported improvements in their knowledge as a result of the sessions, greater confidence approaching their examinations, and this programme has helped foster an environment where students feel able to ask questions outside of sessions and even get involved with teaching themselves the following academic year.

Keywords: medical education, near peer teaching, anatomy teaching, online learning

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2424 The Effects of Infographics as a Supplementary Tool in Promoting Academic Reading Skill in an EFL Class

Authors: Niracha Chompurach, Dararat Khampusaen

Abstract:

EFL students have to be able to synthesize the texts they are reading critically to compose and connect the information. This study focuses on the effects of the application of Infographics as a supplementary tool to improve Thai EFL students’ Academic reading skills. Infographics are graphic visual representations of information, data, and knowledge offering students to work on gathering multiple types of information, such as pictures, texts, graphs, mapping, and charts. The study aims to investigate if the Infographics as a supplementary tool in academic reading lessons can make a difference in students’ reading skills, and the students’ opinions toward the application of infographics as a reading tool. The participants of this study were 3rd year Thai EFL Khon Kaen University students who took English Academic Reading course. This study employed Infographics assignments, Infographics rubric, and Gucus group interview. This study would advantage for both EFL teachers and students as a means to engage the students to handle the larger load of and represents the complex information in visible and comprehensible way.

Keywords: EFL, e-learning, infographics, language education

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2423 Utilization and Proximate Composition of Nile Tilapia, Common Carp and African Mudfish Polycultured in Fertilized Ponds

Authors: I. A. Yola

Abstract:

Impact of poultry dropping, cow dung and rumen content on utilization and proximate composition of Oreochromis niliticus, Clarias gariepinus and Cyprinus capio in a polyculture system were studied. The research was conducted over a period of 52 weeks. Poultry droppings (PD), cow dung (CD) and rumen content (RC) were applied at three levels 30g,60g and 120g/m2/week, 25g,50g and 100g/m2/week and 22g, 44g and 88g/m2/week treatment, respectively. The control only conventional feed with 40% CP without manure application was used. Physicochemical and biological properties measured were higher in manure pond than control. The difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05) between and within treatments with exception of temperature with a combined mean of 27.900C. The water was consistently alkaline with mean values for pH of 6.61, transparency 22.6cm, conductivity 35.00µhos/cm, dissolved oxygen 4.6 mg/l, biological oxygen demand 2.8mg/l, nitrate and phosphates 0.9mg/l and 0.35mg/l, respectively. The three fish species increase in weight with increased manure rate, with a higher value in PD treatment on C. capio record 340g, O. niloticus weighed 310g and C. gariepinus 280g over the experimental period. Fishes fed supplementary diet (control) grew bigger with highest value on C. capio (685g) O. niloticus (620g) and then C. gariepinus (526g). The differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The result of whole body proximate analysis indicated that various manures and rates had an irregular pattern on the protein and ash gain per 100g of fish body weight gain. The combined means for whole fish carcass protein, lipids, moisture, ash and gross energy were 11.84, 2.43, 74.63, 3.00 and 109.9 respectively. The notable exceptions were significant (p < 0.05) increases in body fat and gross energy gains in all fish species accompanied by decreases in percentages of moisture as manure rates increased. Survival percentage decreases from 80% to 70%. It is recommended to use poultry dropping as manure/feeds at the rate of 120kg/ha/week for good performances in polyculture.

Keywords: organic manure, Nile tilapia, African mud fish, common carp, proximate composition

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2422 Why and When to Teach Definitions: Necessary and Unnecessary Discontinuities Resulting from the Definition of Mathematical Concepts

Authors: Josephine Shamash, Stuart Smith

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We examine reasons for introducing definitions in teaching mathematics in a number of different cases. We try to determine if, where, and when to provide a definition, and which definition to choose. We characterize different types of definitions and the different purposes we may have for formulating them, and detail examples of each type. Giving a definition at a certain stage can sometimes be detrimental to the development of the concept image. In such a case, it is advisable to delay the precise definition to a later stage. We describe two models, the 'successive approximation model', and the 'model of the extending definition' that fit such situations. Detailed examples that fit the different models are given based on material taken from a number of textbooks, and analysis of the way the concept is introduced, and where and how its definition is given. Our conclusions, based on this analysis, is that some of the definitions given may cause discontinuities in the learning sequence and constitute obstacles and unnecessary cognitive conflicts in the formation of the concept definition. However, in other cases, the discontinuity in passing from definition to definition actually serves a didactic purpose, is unavoidable for the mathematical evolution of the concept image, and is essential for students to deepen their understanding.

Keywords: concept image, mathematical definitions, mathematics education, mathematics teaching

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2421 Plastic Deformation Behavior of a Pre-Bored Pile Filler Material Due to Lateral Cyclic Loading in Sandy Soil

Authors: A. Y. Purnama, N. Yasufuku

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The bridge structure is a building that has to be maintained, especially for the elastomeric bearing. The girder of the bridge needs to be lifted upward to maintain this elastomeric bearing, that needs high cost. Nowadays, integral abutment bridges are becoming popular. The integral abutment bridge is less costly because the elastomeric bearings are eliminated, which reduces the construction cost and maintenance costs. However, when this elastomeric bearing removed, the girder movement due to environmental thermal forces directly support by pile foundation, and it needs to be considered in the design. In case of pile foundation in a stiff soil, in the top area of the pile cannot move freely due to the fixed condition by soil stiffness. Pre-bored pile system can be used to increase the flexibility of pile foundation using a pre-bored hole that filled with elastic materials, but the behavior of soil-pile interaction and soil response due to this system is still rarely explained. In this paper, an experimental study using small-scale laboratory model test conducted in a half size model. Single flexible pile model embedded in sandy soil with the pre-bored ring, which filled with the filler material. The testing box made from an acrylic glass panel as observation area of the pile shaft to monitor the displacement of the pile during the lateral loading. The failure behavior of the soil inside the pre-bored ring and around the pile shaft was investigated to determine the point of pile rotation and the movement of this point due to the pre-bored ring system along the pile shaft. Digital images were used to capture the deformations of the soil and pile foundation during the loading from the acrylic glass on the side of the testing box. The results were presented in the form of lateral load resistance charts against the pile shaft displacement. The failure pattern result also established due to the cyclic lateral loading. The movement of the rotational point was measured due to the pre-bored system filled with appropriate filler material. Based on the findings, design considerations for pre-bored pile system due to cyclic lateral loading can be introduced.

Keywords: failure behavior, pre-bored pile system, cyclic lateral loading, sandy soil

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2420 Thinking about Drawing: The Evolution of Architectural Education in China After 1949

Authors: Wang Yanze

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Architectural design results from the interaction between space and drawing. Stemming from the Beaux-Arts architectural education, drawing kept its dominant position in teaching and learning process for centuries. However, this education system is being challenged in the present time due to the development of the times. Based on the architectural education of China after 1949, a brief introduction to the history of the evolution of the design concept and drawing is given in this paper. Illustrating with the reference to the students’ works in Nanjing Institute of Technology, the predecessor of Southeast University, in China, the paper analyses the relationship between concept and representation, as well as the participation of Space, the modernism discourse. This process contains the transmission of the character of architects, the renovation of drawing skills and the profound social background. With different purposes, the emphasis on representation tends to be combined with the operation on space, and the role of drawing in architectural design process also changes. Therefore, based on the continuity of the traditional architectural education system, the discussion on the “Drawing of Space” in contemporary education system is proposed.

Keywords: architectural education, beaux-arts, drawing, modernism

Procedia PDF Downloads 473
2419 Language Skills in the Emergent Literacy of Spanish-Speaking Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Authors: Adriana Salgado, Sandra Castaneda, Ivan Perez

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Learning to read and write is a complex process involving several cognitive skills, contextual, and cultural environments. The basis of this development is linguistic skills, such as the ability to name and understand vocabulary, retell a story, phonological awareness, letter knowledge, among others. In children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), one of the main concerns is related to language disorders. Nevertheless, most of the children with ASD are able to decode written information but have difficulties in reading comprehension. The research of these processes in the Spanish-speaking population is limited. However, the increasing prevalence of this diagnosis (1 in 115 children) in Mexico has implications at different levels. Educational research is an important area of interest in ASD children, such as emergent literacy. Reading and writing expand the possibilities of academic, cultural, and social information access. Taking this information into account, the objective of this research was to identify the relationship between language skills, alphabet knowledge, phonological awareness, and early reading and writing in ASD Spanish-speaking children. The method used for this research was based on tasks that were selected, adapted and in some cases designed to measure initial reading and writing, as well as language skills (naming, receptive vocabulary, and narrative skills), phonological awareness (similar phonological word pairs, beginning sound awareness and spelling) and letter knowledge, in a sample of 45 children (38 boys and 7 girls) with prior diagnosis of ASD. Descriptive analyses, as well as bivariate correlations, cluster analysis, and canonical correspondence, were obtained for the data results. Results showed that variability was large; however, it was possible to characterize the sample in low, medium, and high score groups regarding children performance. The low score group (46.7% of the sample), had a null or deficient performance in language skills and phonological awareness, some could identify up to five letters of the alphabet, showed no early reading skills but they could scribble. The middle score group was characterized by a highly variable performance in different tasks, with better language skills in receptive and naming vocabulary, some narrative, letter knowledge, and phonological awareness (beginning sound awareness) skills. The high score group, (24.4% of the sample) had the best performance in language skills in relation to the sample data, as well as in the rest of the measured skills. Finally, scores were canonically correlated between naming, receptive vocabulary, narrative, phonological awareness, letter knowledge and initial learning of reading and writing skills for the high score group and letter knowledge, naming and receptive vocabulary for the lower score group, which is consistent with previous research in typical and ASD children. In conclusion, the obtained data is consistent with previous studies. Despite large variability, it was possible to identify performance profiles and relations based on linguistic, phonological awareness, and letter knowledge skills. These skills were predictor variables of the initial development of reading and writing. The above has implications for a future program and strategies development that may benefit the acquisition of reading and writing in ASD children.

Keywords: autism, autism spectrum disorders, early literacy, emergent literacy

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2418 Road Accidents Bigdata Mining and Visualization Using Support Vector Machines

Authors: Usha Lokala, Srinivas Nowduri, Prabhakar K. Sharma

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Useful information has been extracted from the road accident data in United Kingdom (UK), using data analytics method, for avoiding possible accidents in rural and urban areas. This analysis make use of several methodologies such as data integration, support vector machines (SVM), correlation machines and multinomial goodness. The entire datasets have been imported from the traffic department of UK with due permission. The information extracted from these huge datasets forms a basis for several predictions, which in turn avoid unnecessary memory lapses. Since data is expected to grow continuously over a period of time, this work primarily proposes a new framework model which can be trained and adapt itself to new data and make accurate predictions. This work also throws some light on use of SVM’s methodology for text classifiers from the obtained traffic data. Finally, it emphasizes the uniqueness and adaptability of SVMs methodology appropriate for this kind of research work.

Keywords: support vector mechanism (SVM), machine learning (ML), support vector machines (SVM), department of transportation (DFT)

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
2417 Efficacy of Botulinum Toxin in Alleviating Pain Syndrome in Stroke Patients with Upper Limb Spasticity

Authors: Akulov M. A., Zaharov V. O., Jurishhev P. E., Tomskij A. A.

Abstract:

Introduction: Spasticity is a severe consequence of stroke, leading to profound disability, decreased quality of life and decrease of rehabilitation efficacy [4]. Spasticity is often associated with pain syndrome, arising from joint damage of paretic limbs (postural arthropathy) or painful spasm of paretic limb muscles. It is generally accepted that injection of botulinum toxin into a cramped muscle leads to decrease of muscle tone and improves motion range in paretic limb, which is accompanied by pain alleviation. Study aim: To evaluate the change in pain syndrome intensity after incections of botulinum toxin A (Xeomin) in stroke patients with upper limb spasticity. Patients and methods. 21 patients aged 47-74 years were evaluated. Inclusion criteria were: acute stroke 4-7 months before the inclusion into the study, leading to spasticity of wrist and/or finger flexors, elbow flexor or forearm pronator, associated with severe pain syndrome. Patients received Xeomin as monotherapy 90-300 U, according to spasticity pattern. Efficacy evaluation was performed using Ashworth scale, disability assessment scale (DAS), caregiver burden scale and global treatment benefit assessment on weeks 2, 4, 8 and 12. Efficacy criterion was the decrease of pain syndrome by week 4 on PQLS and VAS. Results: The study revealed a significant improvement of measured indices after 4 weeks of treatment, which persisted until the 12 week of treatment. Xeomin is effective in reducing muscle tone of flexors of wrist, fingers and elbow, forearm pronators. By the 4th week of treatment we observed a significant improvement on DAS (р < 0,05), Ashworth scale (1-2 points) in all patients (р < 0,05), caregiver burden scale (р < 0,05). A significant decrease of pain syndrome by the 4th week of treatment on PQLS (р < 0,05) и VAS (р < 0,05) was observed. No adverse effect were registered. Conclusion: Xeomin is an effective treatment of pain syndrome in postural upper limb spasticity after stroke. Xeomin treatment leads to a significant improvement on PQLS and VAS.

Keywords: botulinum toxin, pain syndrome, spasticity, stroke

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2416 Modeling Child Development Factors for the Early Introduction of ICTs in Schools

Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

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One of the fundamental characteristics of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been the ever-changing nature of continuous release and models of ICTs with its impact on the academic, social, and psychological benefits of its introduction in schools. However, there seems to be a growing concern about its negative impact on students when introduced early in schools for teaching and learning. This study aims to design a model of child development factors affecting the early introduction of ICTs in schools in an attempt to improve the understanding of child development and introduction of ICTs in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of child development theories and child development factors. The child development theoretical framework that fitted to the best of all child development factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study hence found that the Jean Piaget cognitive developmental theory is the most adequate theoretical frameworks for modeling child development factors for ICT introduction in schools.

Keywords: child development factors, child development theories, ICTs, theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
2415 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 114