Search results for: agricultural engineering

Authors: Laura Piedra-Muñoz, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa

Abstract:

The current agricultural system in some arid and semi-arid areas is not sustainable in the long term. In southeast Spain, groundwater is the main water source and is overexploited, while alternatives like desalination are still limited. The Water Plan for the Mediterranean Basins 2015-2020 indicates a global deficit of 73.42 hm3 and an overexploitation of the aquifers of 205.58hm3. In order to solve this serious problem, two major actions can be taken: increasing available water, and/or improving the efficiency of its use. This study focuses on the latter. The main aim of this study is to present the major factors related to water usage efficiency in farming. It focuses on Almería province, southeast Spain, one of the most arid areas of the country, and in particular on family farms as the main direct managers of water use in this zone. Many of these farms are among the most water efficient in Spanish agriculture, but this efficiency is not generalized throughout the sector. This work conducts a comprehensive assessment of water performance in this area, using on-farm water-use, structural, socio-economic and environmental information. Two statistical techniques are used: descriptive analysis and cluster analysis. Thus, two groups are identified: the least and the most efficient farms regarding water usage. By analyzing both the common characteristics within each group and the differences between the groups with a one-way ANOVA analysis, several conclusions can be reached. The main differences between the two clusters center on the extent to which innovation and new technologies are used in irrigation. The most water efficient farms are characterized by more educated farmers, a greater degree of innovation, new irrigation technology, specialized production and awareness of water issues and environmental sustainability. The research shows that better practices and policies can have a substantial impact on achieving a more sustainable and efficient use of water. The findings of this study can be extended to farms in similar arid and semi-arid areas and contribute to foster appropriate policies to improve the efficiency of water usage in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: cluster analysis, family farms, Spain, water-use efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Madalin Enache, Simona Neagu, Roxana Cojoc, Ioana Gomoiu, Delia Ionela Dobre, Ancuta Roxana Trifoi

Abstract:

Various types of halophilic and halotolerant microorganisms able to be cultivated in laboratory on culture media with a wide range of sodium chloride content are isolated from several salted environments. The extracellular enzymes of these microorganisms showed the enzymatic activity in these spectrums of salinity thus being attractive for several biotechnological processes developed at high ionic strength. In present work, a number of amylase, protease, esterase, lipase, cellulase, pectinase, xilanases and innulinase were identified for more than 50th bacterial strains isolated from water samples and sapropelic mud from four saline and hypersaline lakes located in Romanian plain. On the other hand, the cellulase and pectinase activity were also detected in some halotolerant microorganisms isolated from secondary agricultural flow of grapes processing. The preliminary data revealed that from totally tested strains seven harbor proteases activity, eight amylase activity, four for esterase and another four for lipase, three for pectinase and for one strain were identified either cellulase or pectinase activity. There were no identified enzymes able to hydrolase innulin added to culture media. Several strains isolated from sapropelic mud showed multiple extracellular enzymatic activities, namely three strains harbor three activities and another seven harbor two activities. The data revealed that amylase and protease activities were frequently detected if compare with other tested enzymes. In the case of pectinase were investigated, their ability to be used for increasing resveratrol recovery from material resulted after grapes processing. In this way, the resulted material from grapes processing was treated with microbial supernatant for several times (two, four and 24 hours) and the content of resveratrol was detected by High Performance Liquid Chromatography method (HPLC). The preliminary data revealed some positive results of this treatment.

Keywords: halophilic microorganisms, enzymes, pectinase, salinity

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Kiana Taheri

Abstract:

Rural tourism has garnered significant attention as a catalyst for rural development and sustainability, particularly in regions like Tuscany, Italy, where the convergence of cultural heritage, picturesque landscapes, and agricultural traditions provides a fertile ground for tourism activities. This paper investigates the pivotal role of women entrepreneurs in driving sustainable rural tourism development, with a specific focus on Tuscany. Drawing upon a synthesis of literature on rural tourism, entrepreneurship, and gender studies, this research offers insights into how women entrepreneurs contribute to the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of rural tourism in Tuscany. The conceptual framework of this study is rooted in the evolving landscape of rural development, shaped by shifting paradigms in agricultural policies, such as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union. This framework underscores the transition from traditional agrarian economies to dynamic rural tourism destinations characterized by a consumer-centric approach and a focus on sustainable development. Against this backdrop, the study delves into the multifaceted contributions of women entrepreneurs within the rural tourism sector. Central to the analysis is the recognition of rural tourism as a nexus of social, cultural, economic, and environmental interactions, wherein women entrepreneurs play a pivotal role in leveraging local resources, preserving cultural heritage, and fostering community engagement. By capitalizing on their unique perspectives, skills, and networks, women entrepreneurs drive innovation, diversification, and inclusivity within the tourism sector, thereby enhancing its resilience and long-term viability. Moreover, the study highlights the symbiotic relationship between rural tourism development and women's empowerment, as evidenced by the increasing prominence of women entrepreneurs in Tuscany's rural economy. Through their leadership roles in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and agritourism ventures, women entrepreneurs not only contribute to economic growth but also challenge traditional gender norms and empower local communities. A key empirical focus of this research is a comprehensive case study of Tuscany, renowned for its successful rural tourism model and vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem. Through qualitative interviews, surveys, and archival analysis, the study elucidates the strategies, challenges, and impacts of women entrepreneurs on sustainable rural tourism development in Tuscany. By examining the experiences of women entrepreneurs across diverse sectors of rural tourism, including hospitality, gastronomy, and cultural heritage, the study offers nuanced insights into their contributions to regional development and empowerment. In conclusion, this research contributes to the burgeoning scholarship on rural tourism, entrepreneurship, and gender studies by shedding light on the transformative role of women entrepreneurs in driving sustainable development agendas in rural areas. By elucidating the interplay between gender dynamics, entrepreneurial activities, and tourism development, this study seeks to inform policy interventions and strategic initiatives aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable rural tourism ecosystems.

Keywords: rural tourism, women empowerment, entrepreneurship, sustainable development, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Radheshyam Yadav, Ramakrishna Wusirika

Abstract:

Plant Growth Promoting Bacteria (PGPB) and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal (AM) Fungi are ubiquitous in soil and often very critical for crop yield and agriculture sustainability, and this has motivated the agricultural practices to support and promote PGPB and AM Fungi in agriculture. PGPB can be involved in a range of processes that affect Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) transformations in soil and thus influence nutrient availability and uptake to the plants. A field study with two wheat cultivars, HD-3086, and HD-2967 was performed in Malwa region, Bathinda of Punjab, India, to evaluate the effect of native and non-native PGPB alone and in combination with AM fungi as an inoculant on wheat grain yield, nutrient uptake and soil health parameters (dehydrogenase, urease, β‐glucosidase). Our results showed that despite an early insignificant increase in shoot length, plants treated with PGPB (Bacillus sp.) and AM Fungi led to a significant increase in shoot growth at maturity, aboveground biomass, nitrogen (45% - 40%) and phosphorus (40% - 34%) content in wheat grains relative to untreated control plants. Similarly, enhanced grain yield and nutrients uptake i.e. copper (27.15% - 36.25%) iron (43% - 53%) and zinc (44% - 47%) was recorded in PGPB and AM Fungi treated plants relative to untreated control. Overall, inoculation with native PGPB alone and in combination with AM Fungi provided benefits to enhance grain yield, wheat biofortification, and improved soil fertility, despite this effect varied depending on different PGPB isolates and wheat cultivars. These field study results provide evidence of the benefits of agricultural practices involving native PGPB and AM Fungi to the plants. These native strains and AM Fungi increased accumulations of copper, iron, and zinc in wheat grains, enhanced grain yield, and soil fertility.

Keywords: AM Fungi, biofortification, PGPB, soil microbial enzymes

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Javeed Akhtar, R. K. Pandey, Z. R. Azaz Ahmad Azad

Abstract:

For the purpose of making different uses of food material for the development of extruded foods are produced using single and twin extruders. Extrusion cooking is a useful and economical tool for processing of novel food. This high temperature, short time processing technology causes chemical and physical changes that alter the nutritional and physical quality of the product. Extrusion processing of food ingredients characteristically depends on associating process conditions that influence the product qualities. The process parameters are optimized for extrusion of food material in order to obtain the maximum nutritive value by inactivating the anti-nutritional factors. The processing conditions such as moisture content, temperature and time are controlled to avoid over heating or under heating which otherwise would result in a product of lower nutritional quality.

Keywords: extrusion processing, single and twin extruder, operating condition of extruders and extruded novel foods, food and agricultural engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Soumen Mitra, Aparna Saha

Abstract:

The perceived link between the city and the countryside is evolving rapidly and is getting shifted away from the assumptions of mainstream paradigms to new conceptual networks where rural-urban links are being redefined. In this conceptual field, the fringe interface is still considered as a transitional zone between city and countryside, and is defined as a diffused area rather than a discrete territory. In developing countries fringe areas are said to have both rural and urban characteristics but are devoid of basic municipal facilities. Again, when the urban core areas envelopes the fringe areas along with it the character of fringe changes but services are not well facilitated which in turn results to uneven growth, rapid and haphazard development. One of the major services present in fringe areas is inter-linkages in terms of transit corridors. Planning for the appropriate and sustainable future of fringe areas requires a sheer focus on these corridors pertaining to transit facility, for better accessibility and mobility. Inducing a transit facility plan enhances the various facilities and also increases their proximity for user groups. The study focuses on the western fringe region of Kolkata metropolis which is a major source of industrial hub and housing sector, thus converting the agricultural lands into non-agricultural use. The study emphasizes on providing transit facilities both physical (stops, sheds, terminals, etc.) and operational (ticketing system, route prioritization, integration of transit modes, etc.), to facilitate the region as well as accelerate the growth pattern systematically. Hence, the scope of this work is on the basis of prevailing conditions in fringe areas and attempts for an effective transit facility plan. The strategies and recommendations are in terms of road widening, service coverage, feeder route prioritization, bus stops facilitation, pedestrian facilities, etc, which in turn enhances the region’s growth pattern. Thus, this context of transit facility planning acts as a catalytic agent to avoid the future unplanned growth and accelerates it towards an integrated development.

Keywords: feeder route, fringe, municipal planning, transit facility

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: J. E. Mendes, T. T. de Barros, O. B. G. de Assis, J. D. C. Pessoa

Abstract:

Chitosan, a natural polysaccharide of β-1,4-linked glucosamine residues, is a biopolymer obtained primarily from the exoskeletons of crustaceans. Interest in polymeric materials increases year by year. Chitosan is one of the most plentiful biomaterials, with a wide range of pharmaceutical, biomedical, industrial and agricultural applications. Chitosan nanoparticles were synthesized via the ionotropic gelation of chitosan with sodium tripolyphosphate (TPP). Two concentrations of chitosan microparticles (0.1 and 0.2%) were synthesized. In this study, it was possible to synthesize and characterize microparticles of chitosan biomaterial and this will be used for future applications in cell anchorage for 3D bioprinting.

Keywords: chitosan microparticles, biomaterial, scaffold, bioprinting

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Inom S. Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, Parviz I. Normatov

Abstract:

Problems of food security and the preservation of reserved zones in the region of Central Asia under the conditions of the climate change induced by the placement and construction of large reservoirs are considered. The criteria for the optimum placement and construction of reservoirs that entail the minimum impact on the environment are established. The need for the accounting of climatic parameters is shown by the calculation of the water quantity required for the irrigation of agricultural lands.

Keywords: adaptation, biodiversity, food security, water reservoir, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Katja Mikhailovich, Barbara Pamphilon

Abstract:

Farmer training in Papua New Guinea has focused mainly on technology transfer approaches. This has primarily benefited men and often excluded women whose literacy, low education and role in subsistence crops has precluded participation in formal training. The paper discusses an approach that uses both a brokerage model of agricultural extension to link smallholders with private sector agencies and an innovative family team’s approach that aims to support the economic empowerment of women in families and encourages sustainable and gender equitable farming and business practices.

Keywords: women, economic development, agriculture, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Andres Diaz Garcia

Abstract:

The successful technological development of any bioproduct, including those of the biostimulant type, requires to adequately completion of a series of stages allied to different disciplines that are related to microbiological, engineering, pharmaceutical chemistry, legal and market components, among others. Engineering as a discipline has a key contribution in different aspects of fermentation processes such as the design and optimization of culture media, the standardization of operating conditions within the bioreactor and the scaling of the production process of the active ingredient that it will be used in unit operations downstream. However, all aspects mentioned must take into account many biological factors of the microorganism such as the growth rate, the level of assimilation to various organic and inorganic sources and the mechanisms of action associated with its biological activity. This paper focuses on the practical experience within the Colombian Corporation for Agricultural Research (Agrosavia), which led to the development of a biostimulant bioproduct based on native rhizobacteria Bacillus amyloliquefaciens, oriented mainly to plant growth promotion in cape gooseberry nurseries and fruit crops in Colombia, and the challenges that were overcome from the expertise in the area of engineering. Through the application of strategies and engineering tools, a culture medium was optimized to obtain concentrations higher than 1E09 CFU (colony form units)/ml in liquid fermentation, the process of biomass production was standardized and a scale-up strategy was generated based on geometric (H/D of bioreactor relationships), and operational criteria based on a minimum dissolved oxygen concentration and that took into account the differences in the capacity of control of the process in the laboratory and pilot scales. Currently, the bioproduct obtained through this technological process is in stages of registration in Colombia for cape gooseberry fruits for export.

Keywords: biochemical engineering, liquid fermentation, plant growth promoting, scale-up process

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Mohammadreza Delfieh, Seyed Ali Mohammad Modarres Sanavy, Rouzbeh Farhoudi

Abstract:

Fennel is of most important medicinal plants which is widely used in food and pharmaceutical industries. In order to investigate the effect of different nitrogen nutritional systems including chemical, organic and biologic ones at different plant densities on yield, yield components and seed essential oil content and yield of this valuable medicinal plant, a field experiment was carried out in 2013-2014 agricultural season at Islamic Azad University of Shoushtar agricultural college in split plot design with 18 treatments and based on completely randomized blocks design. Different nitrogen system treatments consisting of: 1. N1 or control (Uniformly spreading urea fertilizer in the plot, 50% at planting time and 50% at stem elongation), 2. N2 (Uniformly spreading 50% of urea fertilizer in the plot at planting time and spraying the other 50% of urea fertilizer at stem elongation on fennel foliage), 3. N3 or cow manure, 4. N4 or biofertilizer (Inoculation of fennel seeds with Azotobacter and Azospirillum), 5. N5 or Integrated-1 (Cow manure + uniformly spreading urea fertilizer in the plot at stem elongation), 6. N6 or Integrated-2 (Cow manure + Inoculation of fennel seeds with Azotobacter and Azospirillum) were applied to the main plots. Three fennel densities consisting of: 1. FD1 (60 plant/m2), 2. FD2 (80 plant/m2) and 3. FD3 (100 plant/m2) were applied to subplots. Results showed that all of the traits were significantly affected by applied treatments (P 0.01). The interaction between treatments also were significant at 5 percent level for shoot dry weight and at 1 percent level for other traits. Based on the results, using the Integrated-1 treatment at 100 plant per m2 produced 94.575 g/m2 seed yield containing 3.375 percent of essential oil. Utilization of such combination not only could lead to a desirable fennel quantity and quality, but also is more consistent with environment.

Keywords: fennel (foeniculum vulgare mill.), nutritional system, nitrogen, biofertilizer, organic fertilizer, chemical fertilizer, density

Procedia PDF Downloads 446

Authors: Alondra Balbuena Medina, Carlos Diaz Delgado, Aleida Yadira Vilchis Fránces

Abstract:

In Mexico, each year news is disseminated about the ravages of floods, such as the total loss of housing, damage to the fields; the increase of the costs of the food, derived from the losses of the harvests, coupled with health problems such as skin infection, etc. In addition to social problems such as delinquency, damage in education institutions and the population in general. The flooding is a consequence of heavy rains, tropical storms and or hurricanes that generate excess water in drainage systems that exceed its capacity. In urban areas, heavy rains can be one of the main factors in causing flooding, in addition to excessive precipitation, dam breakage, and human activities, for example, excessive garbage in the strainers. In agricultural areas, these can hardly achieve large areas of cultivation. It should be mentioned that for both areas, one of the significant impacts of floods is that they can permanently affect the livelihoods of many families, cause damage, for example in their workplaces such as farmlands, commercial or industry areas and where services are provided. In recent years, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have had an accelerated development, being reflected in the growth and the exponential evolution of the innovation giving; as a result, the daily generation of new technologies, updates, and applications. Innovation in the development of Information Technology applications has impacted on all areas of human activity. They influence all the orders of life of individuals, reconfiguring the way of perceiving and analyzing the world such as, for instance, interrelating with people as individuals and as a society, in the economic, political, social, cultural, educational, environmental, etc. Therefore the present work describes the creation of a system of calculation of flood costs for housing areas, retail establishments and agricultural areas from the Mexican Republic, based on the use and application of geotechnical tools being able to be useful for the benefit of the sectors of public, education and private. To generate analysis of hydrometereologic affections and with the obtained results to realize the Geoinformatics tool was constructed from two different points of view: the geoinformatic (design and development of GIS software) and the methodology of flood damage validation in order to integrate a tool that provides the user the monetary estimate of the effects caused by the floods. With information from the period 2000-2014, the functionality of the application was corroborated. For the years 2000 to 2009 only the analysis of the agricultural and housing areas was carried out, incorporating for the commercial establishment's information of the period 2010 - 2014. The method proposed for the resolution of this research project is a fundamental contribution to society, in addition to the tool itself. Therefore, it can be summarized that the problems that are in the physical-geographical environment, conceiving them from the point of view of the spatial analysis, allow to offer different alternatives of solution and also to open up slopes towards academia and research.

Keywords: floods, technological innovation, monetary estimation, spatial analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Arkadiusz P. Wójcik, Tetsuya Sato, Shin-Ichiro Shima, Mateusz Malanowski

Abstract:

Over the last decades, new technologies have significantly changed the way information is transmitted and stored. Renewable energy sources have become prevalent and affordable. Cooperation of the Information and Communication Technology industry and Renewable Energy industry makes it possible to create a next generation, decentralized power grid. In this context, the study seeks to identify the wider benefits to the local Japanese economy as a result of the development of a decentralised electricity market. Our general approach aims to integrate an economic analysis (monetary appraisal of costs and benefits to society) with externalities that are not quantifiable in monetary terms (e.g. social impact, environmental impact). The study also highlights opportunities and sets out recommendations for the citizens of the island and the local government. The simulation is the scientific basis for economic impact analysis. Various types of sources of energy have been taken into account: residential wind farm, residential wind turbine, solar farm, residential solar panels and private solar farms. Analysis of local geographic and economic conditions allowed creating a customized business model. Very often farmers on Awaji Island are using crop cycle. During each cycle, one part of the field is resting and replenishing nutrients. In the next year another part of the field is resting. Portable solar panels could be freely set up in this part of the field. At the end of the crop cycle, portable solar panels would be moved to the next resting part. Because of spacious area, for a single household 500 square meters of portable solar panels has been proposed and simulated. The devised simulation shows that the Rate of Return on Investment for solar panels, which are on the island, could reach up to 37.21%. Supposing that about 20% of households install solar panels they could produce 49.11% of the electric energy consumed by households on the island. The analysis shows that rest of the energy supply can be produced by currently existing one huge solar farm and two wind farms to meet 97.59% of demand on electricity for households on the island. Although there are more than 7,000 agricultural fields on the island, young people tend to avoid agricultural work and prefer to move from the island to big cities, live there in little mansions and work until late night. The business model proposed in this study could increase farmer’s monthly income by ¥200,000 - ¥300,000 (1,600 euro – 2,400 euro). Young people could work less and have a higher standard of living than in a city. Creation of a decentralized electricity market can unlock significant benefits in other industries (e.g. electric vehicles), providing a welcome boost to economic growth, jobs and quality of life.

Keywords: digital twin, Matlab, model-based systems engineering, simulink, smart grid, systems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Deepak Loura

Abstract:

Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Bilge Aydın Er, Yuksel Ardalı

Abstract:

In Ayvacık village, 80-90% of the population is engaged in agriculture. The pollution was adversely affecting the properties of agricultural origin of the lake. This study is to determine pollution caused by unwanted changes in the Suat Ugurlu Dam Lake has been launched to monitor. Yesilirmak basin is located in the proximal part of the Black Sea. Therefore it was exposed to impact many pollution. In this study, sediment samples from selected points along the lake was made on the analysis. This work was supported by the results of water analyzes. It is clear that urgent measures should be taken to the area of water management

Keywords: eutrophication, Black sea, lake, pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Md Mizanur Rahman, Lotanna Micah Nneji, Adeola C. Adeniyi, Edem Archibong Eniang, Abiodun B. Onadeko, Felista Kasyoka Kilunda, Babatunde E. Adedeji, Ifeanyi C. Nneji, Adiaha A. A. Ugwumba, Jie-Qiong Jin, Min-Sheng Peng, Caroline Olory, Nsikan Eninekit, Jing Che

Abstract:

Nigeria contains a number of forest habitats that believed to host highly rich amphibian diversity. However, a dearth of herpetological studies has restricted information on the amphibian diversity in Nigeria. To cover the gap of knowledge, this study focused field surveys on relatively less studied forests–Afi Forest Reserve and Ikpan forest ecosystem. The goal of this study is to make a checklist and to investigate the habitat preferences of amphibians in these two forests. The study areas were surveyed between August 2018 and July 2019 following visual and acoustic methods. Individuals were identified using the morphological and molecular (16S ribosomal RNA) approach. Literature searches were conducted to document additional species that were not encountered during the current field surveys. Using the observational records and arrays of diversity indices, the patterns of species richness and abundance across habitat types were evaluated. Voucher specimens and tissue samples were deposited in the museums of the Department of Zoology, University of Ibadan Nigeria, and the remainder at the Kunming Institute of Zoology (KIZ), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China. The result of this study revealed the presence of 30 and 31 amphibian species from the Afi Forest Reserve and the Ikpan Forest Ecosystem, respectively. There were two unidentified species from AFR and one from IFE. In total, 324 individuals of amphibian species were observed from the two study areas. Forest and swamps showed high species diversity and richness than the agricultural field and savannah. Savannah and agricultural fields had the highest similarity in the species composition. Given the increased human disturbances and consequent threats to these forests, this study offers recommendations for the initiation of conservation plans immediately.

Keywords: biodiversity, conservation, cryptic species, ecology, integrated taxonomy, species inventory

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Mara Getachew Zenebe, Luuk Fleskens, Abdu Obieda Ahmed

Abstract:

This paper seeks to advance our scientific understanding of optimizing flood utilization in regions impacted by climate change, with a focus on enhancing agricultural productivity through effective irrigation management. The study was conducted as part of a three-year (2021 to 2023) USAID-supported initiative aimed at promoting Economic Growth and Peace in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS), situated in Sudan's water-stressed Eastern region. GAS is the country's largest flood-irrigated scheme, covering 100,800 hectares of cultivable land, with a potential to provide the food security needs of over a quarter of a million agro-pastoral community members. GAS relies on the Gash River, which sources its water from high-intensity rainfall events in the highlands of Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, climate change and variations in these highlands have led to increased variability in the Gash River's flow. The study conducted water balance analyses based on a ten-year dataset of the annual Gash River flow, irrigated area; as well as the evapotranspiration demand of the major sorghum crop. Data collection methods included field measurements, surveys, remote sensing, and CropWat modelling. The water balance assessment revealed that the existing three-year rotation-based irrigation system management, capping cultivated land at 33,000 hectares annually, is excessively risk-averse. While this system reduced conflicts among the agro-pastoral communities by consistently delivering on the land promised to be annually cultivated, it also increased GAS's vulnerability to flood damage due to several reasons. The irrigation efficiency over the past decade was approximately 30%, leaving significant unharnessed floodwater that caused damage to infrastructure and agricultural land. The three-year rotation resulted in inadequate infrastructural maintenance, given the destructive nature of floods. Additionally, it led to infrequent land tillage, allowing the encroachment of mesquite trees hindering major sorghum crop growth. Remote sensing data confirmed that mesquite trees have overtaken 70,000 hectares in the past two decades, rendering them unavailable for agriculture. The water balance analyses suggest shifting to a two-year rotation, covering approximately 50,000 hectares annually while maintaining risk aversion. This shift could boost GAS's annual sorghum production by two-thirds, exceeding 850,000 tons. The scheme's efficiency can be further enhanced through low-cost on-farm interventions. Currently, large irrigation plots that range from 420 to 756 hectares are irrigated with limited water distribution guidance, leading to uneven irrigation. As demonstrated through field trials, implementing internal longitudinal bunds and horizontal deflector bunds can increase adequately irrigated parts of the irrigation plots from 50% to 80% and thus nearly double the sorghum yield to 2 tons per hectare while reducing the irrigation duration from 30 days to a maximum of 17 days. Flow measurements in 2021 and 2022 confirmed that these changes sufficiently meet the sorghum crop's water requirements, even with a conservative 60% field application efficiency assumption. These insights and lessons from the GAS on enhancing agricultural resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change are relevant to flood-based livelihood systems globally.

Keywords: climate change, irrigation management and productivity, variable flood flows, water balance analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Wonder Ngezimana, Benjamin Alex Madzivire

Abstract:

As new public universities are being applauded for being promulgated in Zimbabwe, there is need for comprehensive plan for ensuring sustainable competitive advantages in their niche mandated areas. Unhealthy competition between university faculties for enrolment hinders growth of the newly established universities faculties, especially in the agricultural sciences related disciplines. Blue ocean metaphor is based on creation of competitor-free market unlike 'red oceans', which are well explored and crowded with competitors. This study seeks to explore the potential contribution of blue oceans strategy (BOS) for growth of universities with bias towards faculties of agriculture in public universities in Zimbabwe. Case studies with agricultural sciences related disciplines were selected across three universities for interviewing. Data was collected through 10 open ended questions on academics in different management positions within university faculties of agriculture. Summative analysis was thereafter used during coding and interpretation of the data. Study findings show that there are several important elements for making offerings more comprehendible towards fostering faculty growth and performance with bias towards student enrolment. The results points towards BOS form of value innovations with various elements to consider in faculty offerings. To create valued innovation beyond the red oceans, the cases in this study have to be modelled to foster changes in enrolment, modes of delivery, certification, being research oriented with excellence in teaching, ethics, service to the community and entrepreneurship. There is, therefore, need to rethink strategy towards reshaping inclusive enrolment, industry relevance, affiliations, lifelong learning, sustainable student welfare, ubuntu, exchange programmes, research excellence, alumni support and entrepreneurship. Innovative strategic collaborations and partnerships, anchored on technology boost the strategic offerings henceforth leveraging on various offerings in this study. Areas of further study include the amplitude of blue oceans shown in the university faculty offerings and implementation strategies of BOS.

Keywords: blue oceans strategy, collaborations, faculty offerings, value innovations

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Savannah Rugg, Carlo Moreno, Pushpa Soti, Alexis Racelis

Abstract:

Situated in deep South Texas, the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) is considered one the most productive agricultural regions in the southern US. With the highest concentration of organic farms in the state (Hidalgo county), the LRGV has a strong potential to be leaders in sustainable agriculture. Finding management practices that comply with organic certification and increase the health of the agroecosytem and the farmers working the land is increasingly pertinent. Cover cropping, or the intentional planting of non-cash crop vegetation, can serve multiple functions in an agroecosystem by decreasing environmental pollutants that originate from the agroecosystem, reducing inputs needed for crop production, and potentially decreasing on-farm costs for farmers—overall increasing the sustainability of the farm. Use of cover crops on otherwise fallow lands have shown to enhance ecosystem services such as: attracting native beneficial insects (pollinators), increase nutrient availability in topsoil, prevent nutrient leaching, increase soil organic matter, and reduces soil erosion. In this study, four cover crops (Lablab, Sudan Grass, Sunn Hemp, and Pearl Millet) were analyzed in the subtropical region of south Texas to see how their multiple functions enhance ecosystem services. The four cover crops were assessed to see their potential to harbor native insects, their potential to increase soil nitrogen, to increase soil organic matter, and to suppress weeds. The preliminary results suggest that these subtropical varieties of cover crops have potential to enhance ecosystem services on agricultural land in the RGV by increasing soil organic matter (in all varieties), increasing nitrogen in topsoil (Lablab, Sunn Hemp), and reducing weeds (Sudan Grass).

Keywords: cover crops, ecosystem services, subtropical agriculture, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Ayhan Varol, Aysenur Ugurlu

Abstract:

Due to the depletion of fossil fuels and climate change, there is a rising interest in renewable energy sources. In this concept, a wide range of biomass (energy crops, animal manure, solid wastes, etc.) are used for energy production. There has been a growing interest in biomethane production from biomass. Biomethane production from organic wastes is a promising alternative for waste management by providing organic matter stabilization. Anaerobic digestion of organic material produces biogas, and organic substrate is degraded into a more stable material. Therefore, anaerobic digestion technology helps reduction of carbon emissions and produces renewable energy. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and organic loading rate (OLR), as well as TS (VS) loadings, influences the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes significantly. The optimum range for HRT varies between 15 days to 30 days, whereas OLR differs between 0.5 to 5 g/L.d depending on the substrate type and its lipid, protein and carbohydrate contents. The organic wastes have biogas production potential through anaerobic digestion. In this study, biomethane production potential of wastes like sugar beet bagasse, agricultural residues, food wastes, olive mill pulp, and dairy manure having different characteristics was investigated in mesophilic CSTR reactor, and their performances were compared. The reactor was mixed in order to provide homogenized content at a rate of 80 rpm. The organic matter content of these wastes was between 85 to 94 % with 61% (olive pulp) to 22 % (food waste) dry matter content. The hydraulic retention time changed between 20-30 days. High biogas productions, 13.45 to 5.70 mL/day, were achieved from the wastes studied when operated at 9 to 10.5% TS loadings where OLR varied between 2.92 and 3.95 gVS/L.day. The results showed that food wastes have higher specific methane production rate and volumetric methane production potential than the other wastes studied, under the similar OLR values. The SBP was 680, 585, 540, 390 and 295 mL/g VS for food waste, agricultural residues, sugar beet bagasse, olive pulp and dairy manure respectively. The methane content of the biogas varied between 72 and 60 %. The volatile solids conversion rate for food waste was 62%.

Keywords: biogas production, organic wastes, biomethane, anaerobic digestion

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Jiri Beranovsky, Jaroslav Knapek, Tomas Kralik, Kamila Vavrova

Abstract:

The paper deals with the results of research focused on the complex aspects of the use of intentionally grown biomass on agricultural land for the production of solid biofuels as an alternative for individual household heating. . The study primarily deals with the analysis of CO2 emissions of the logistics cycle of biomass for the production of energy pellets. Growing, harvesting, transport and storage are evaluated in the pellet production cycle. The aim is also to take into account the consumption profile during the year in terms of heating of common family houses, which are typical end-market segment for these fuels. It is assumed that in family houses, bio-pellets are able to substitute typical fossil fuels, such as brown coal and old wood burning heating devices and also electric boilers. One of the competing technology with the pellets are heat pumps. The results show the CO2 emissions related with considered fuels and technologies for their utilization. Comparative analysis is aimed biopellets from intentionally grown biomass, brown coal, natural gas and electricity used in electric boilers and heat pumps. Analysis combines CO2 emissions related with individual fuels utilization with costs of these fuels utilization. Cost of biopellets from intentionally grown biomass is derived from the economic models of individual energy crop plantations. At the same time, the restrictions imposed by EU legislation on Ecodesign's fuel and combustion equipment requirements and NOx emissions are discussed. Preliminary results of analyzes show that to achieve the competitiveness of pellets produced from specifically grown biomass, it would be necessary to either significantly ecological tax on coal (from about 0.3 to 3-3.5 EUR/GJ), or to multiply the agricultural subsidy per area. In addition to the Czech Republic, the results are also relevant for other countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland, which also have a high proportion of solid fuels for household heating.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, heating costs, energy crop, pellets, brown coal, heat pumps, economical evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

Abstract:

Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Sankhanil Das, Arunava Dasgupta, Keya Mitra

Abstract:

This paper investigates the relationship between natural ecological systems and modern urban morphology. Over years, ecological conditions represented by natural resources such as natural landforms, systems of water, urban geography and land covers have been a significant driving factor of how settlements have formed, expanded and functioned. These have played a pivotal role in formation of the community character and the cultural identity of the urban spaces, and have steered cultural behavior within these settings. Such cultural behaviors have been instrumental in transforming mere spaces to places with meaning and symbolism. The natural process of city formation is principally founded upon the idea of balance and harmony, mostly in a subconscious manner. Reimaging such processes of natural evolution, this paper systematically builds a development model that generates a balance between environment and development, with specific focus on the Urban-Rural fringe areas in the Temple Town of Puri, in Eastern India. Puri represents a unique cross section of ecological landscape, cultural practices and religious symbolism with a very rich history and a vibrant heritage. While the city centre gets more and more crowded by tourists and pilgrims to accommodate related businesses, the original residents of Puri relocate to move towards the urban peripheral areas for better living conditions, gradually converting agricultural lands into non agricultural uses. This rapid spread into the rural hinterland is devoid of any connection with the rich cultural identity of Puri. These past four decades of ‘development’ has been at the cost of 810 Hectares of ecological Lake systems in the region. Invaluable ecological resources at urban rural edges are often viewed as hindrances to development and conceptualized as taking away from the image of the city. This paper attempts to understand the language of development over years on existing natural resources through topo-analysis and proposes a sustainable approach of development using different planning tools, with ecological resources as the pivotal factor of development.

Keywords: livability, sustainable development, urbanization, urban-rural edge

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Yu-Chen Chien, Sheng-Jung Ou, Shang-Ling Hsu

Abstract:

Many aboriginal tribes in the early modern began to actively promote tribal tourism. The tribe uses rich ecological environment and unique folk culture successfully attract crowds. In addition to the tribe in the construction level to consider the cultural heritage and living needs, in order to improve tribal tourism for the tribe to bring the benefits of all levels, as well as to avoid the tourism industry is too prosperous brought negative tourism impact. How to successfully create the conditions of mutual benefit of residents and tourists is an important issue common to many tribes. Hualien Turuku Hongye Tribe in Taiwan around the tourist resources are very rich. It is famous for its Hongye hot springs and Ruisui hot springs. Hongye tribe to develop tribal tourism is bound to use its own has three advantages: Truku culture, in the agricultural products experience and marketing, and the surrounding hot springs industry tourism benefits. Tribal Development Association in the past to promote these three advantages for tribal tourism. But due to the impact of many levels led to the tribes in the promotion of tourism on the ineffective. At present, in addition to the Hongye Tribal Development Association in promoting tribal tourism, local residents to promote cultural heritage workshop also gradually rise. Its purpose is to link local cultural resources, agricultural specialty resources, spa tourism industry, the revitalization of the internal development of the tribes at all levels. Each tribe to promote tribal tourism due to geographical environment, resource types have a different set of practices and patterns. This study explores the tourist opportunities and resource points of Hongye tribes, and tribal tourism has been to promote the operation practices and benefits. To understand the difficulties encountered in the implementation of tribal tourism and the impact of all levels. Reference successful development of domestic and foreign tourism tribal tribe case. Develop a questionnaire and using the questionnaire survey to understand tribal residents for the tribal tribes to promote tribal tourism views. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions and strategies to promote the tribal tourism in Hongye tribe.

Keywords: cultural tourism, tourism impact, aboriginal tribe, Hongye Tribe

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Andrés I. Ávila, Patricia Aros, César San Martín, Elizabeth Kehr, Yovana Leal

Abstract:

Planning models for fresh products is a very useful tool for improving the net profits. To get an efficient supply chain model, several functions should be considered to get a complete simulation of several operational units. We consider a linear programming model to help farmers to decide if it is convenient to choose what area should be planted for three kinds of export fruits considering their future investment. We consider area, investment, water, productivity minimal unit, and harvest restrictions to develop a monthly based model to compute the average income in five years. Also, conditions on the field as area, water availability, and initial investment are required. Using the Chilean costs and dollar-peso exchange rate, we can simulate several scenarios to understand the possible risks associated to this market. Also, this tool help to support decisions for government and individual farmers.

Keywords: mixed integer problem, fresh fruit production, support decision model, agricultural and biosystems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Bourhim Mohammad Redouane, Cheto Said, Qaddoury Ahmed, Hirich Abdelaziz, Ghoulam Cherki

Abstract:

Several abiotic stresses cause disruptions in the properties of agricultural soils and hence their loss worldwide. Among these abiotic stresses, Salinity to which most crops were exposed caused an important reduction in their productivity. Therefore, in order to deal with this challenging problem, we rely on cultivating alternative plants that can tolerate the adverse salinity stress, such as quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa). Although even it was qualified as tolerant to Salinity, the quinoa’s performance could be negatively affected under high salinity levels. Thus, our study aims to assess the effects of the application of soil amendments to improve quinoa tolerance levels under high Salinity. Thus, three quinoa varieties (Puno, ICBA-Q5, and Titicaca) were grown on agricultural soil under a greenhouse with five amendments; Biochar “Bc,” compost “Cp,” black soldier insect frass “If,” cow manure “Fb” and phosphogypsum “Pg.” Two controls without amendment were adopted consisting of the salinized negative one “T(-)” and the non-salinized positive one “T(+).” After 20 days from sowing, the plants were irrigated with a saline solution of 16 dS/m prepared with NaCl for a period of 60 days. Then plant tolerance was assessed based on agrophysiological parameters. The results showed that salinity stress negatively affected the quinoa plants for all the analyzed agrophysiological parameters in the three varieties compared to their corresponding controls “T(+).” However, most of these parameters were significantly enhanced by the application of soil amendments compared to their negative controls “T(-).” For instance, the biomass was improved by 91.8% and 69.4%, respectively, for Puno and Titicaca varieties amended with “Bc.” The total nitrogen amount was increased by 220% for Titicaca and ICBA-Q5 plants cultivated in the soil amended with “If.” One of the most important improvements was noted for potassium content in Titicaca amended with “Pg,” which was six times higher compared to the negative control. Besides, the plants of Puno amended with “Cp” showed an improvement of 75.9% for the stomatal conductance and 58.5% for nitrate reductase activity. Nevertheless, the pronounced varietal difference was registered between Puno and Titicaca, presenting the highest performances mainly for the soil amended with “If,” “Bc,” and “Pg.”

Keywords: chenopodium quinoa, salinity, soil amendments, growth, nutrients, nitrate reductase

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Nor Azian Binti Aziz, Muhammad Afiq Bin Tambichik, Zamri Bin Hashim

Abstract:

The rapid development of the construction industry has contributed to increased construction waste, with concrete waste being among the most abundant. This waste is generated from ready-mix batching plants after the concrete cube testing process is completed and disposed of in landfills, leading to increased solid waste management costs. This study aims to evaluate the engineering characteristics of foamed concrete with waste mixtures construction and agricultural waste to determine the usability of recycled materials in the construction of non-load-bearing walls. This study involves the collection of construction wastes, such as recycled aggregates (RCA) obtained from the remains of finished concrete cubes, which are then tested in the laboratory. Additionally, agricultural waste, such as rice husk ash, is mixed into foamed concrete interlock blocks to enhance their strength. The optimal density of foamed concrete for this study was determined by mixing mortar and foam-backed agents to achieve the minimum targeted compressive strength required for non-load-bearing walls. The tests conducted in this study involved two phases. In Phase 1, elemental analysis using an X-ray fluorescence spectrometer (XRF) was conducted on the materials used in the production of interlock blocks such as sand, recycled aggregate/recycled concrete aggregate (RCA), and husk ash paddy/rice husk ash (RHA), Phase 2 involved physical and thermal tests, such as compressive strength test, heat conductivity test, and fire resistance test, on foamed concrete mixtures. The results showed that foamed concrete can produce lightweight interlock blocks. X-ray fluorescence spectrometry plays a crucial role in the characterization, quality control, and optimization of foamed concrete mixes containing construction and agriculture waste. The unique composition mixer of foamed concrete and the resulting chemical and physical properties, as well as the nature of replacement (either as cement or fine aggregate replacement), the waste contributes differently to the performance of foamed concrete. Interlocking blocks made from foamed concrete can be advantageous due to their reduced weight, which makes them easier to handle and transport compared to traditional concrete blocks. Additionally, foamed concrete typically offers good thermal and acoustic insulation properties, making it suitable for a variety of building projects. Using foamed concrete to produce lightweight interlock blocks could contribute to more efficient and sustainable construction practices. Additionally, RCA derived from concrete cube waste can serve as a substitute for sand in producing lightweight interlock blocks.

Keywords: construction waste, recycled aggregates (RCA), sustainable concrete, structure material

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available. As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level. The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: biogas production, risks, risk assessment, biosystems engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Abdulmagid A. Khattabi, Abdul Fatah M. Emhamed

Abstract:

The steel alloy Introduced after becoming carbon-steel does not meet the requirements of engineering industry; and it cannot be obtained tensile strength from carbon-steel higher than (700MPa), the low alloy steel enters in a lot of heavy engineering equipment parts, molds, agricultural equipment and other industry. In addition, that may be exposed to in-service failure, which may require returned to work, to do the repairs or maintenance by one of the welding methods available. The ability of steel weld determined through palpation of the cracks, which can reduce by many ways. These ways are often expensive and difficult to implement, perhaps the control to choose the type of electrode welding user is one of the easiest and least expensive applications. It has been welding the steel low alloys high resistance by manual metal arc (MMA), and by using a set of welding electrodes which varying in chemical composition and in their prices as well and test their effect on tensile strength. Results showed that using the poles of welding, which have a high proportion of iron powder and low hydrogen. The Tensile resistance is (484MPa) and the weld joint efficiency was (56.9%), but when (OK 47.04) electrode was used the tensile strength increased to (720MPa) and the weld joint efficiency to (84.7%). Using the cheapest electrode (OK 45.00) the weld joint efficiency did not exceed (24.2%), but when using the most expensive electrode (OK 91.28) the weld joint efficiency is (38.1%).

Keywords: steel low alloys high resistance, electrodes welding, tensile test

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 210