Search results for: Cox proportional hazard regression

Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vicky Dradaki, Tamta Sirbilatze, Irini Dri, Christina Kordali, Vaggelis Lambas, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of our study was to examine the hypothesis that Mediterranean diet may protect against mortality and reduce admission duration in elderly, hospitalized patients. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). The following data were taken into account in analysis: anthropometric and laboratory data, dietary habits (MedDiet score), patients’ nutritional status [Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score], physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Logistic regression and linear regression analysis were performed in order to identify independent predictors for mortality and admission duration difference respectively. Results: According to MNA, nutrition was normal in 54/150 (36%) of patients, 46/150 (30.7%) of them were at risk of malnutrition and the rest 50/150 (33.3%) were malnourished. After performing multivariate logistic regression analysis we found that the odds of death decreased 30% per each unit increase of MedDiet score (OR=0.7, 95% CI:0.6-0.8, p < 0.0001). Patients with cancer-related admission were 37.7 times more likely to die, compared to those with infection (OR=37.7, 95% CI:4.4-325, p=0.001). According to multivariate linear regression analysis, admission duration was inversely related to Mediterranean diet, since it is decreased 0.18 days on average for each unit increase of MedDiet score (b:-0.18, 95% CI:-0.33 - -0.035, p=0.02). Additionally, the duration of current admission increased on average 0.83 days for each previous hospital admission (b:0.83, 95% CI:0.5-1.16, p<0.0001). The admission duration of patients with cancer was on average 4.5 days higher than the patients who admitted due to infection (b:4.5, 95% CI:0.9-8, p=0.015). Conclusion: Mediterranean diet adequately protects elderly, hospitalized patients against mortality and reduces the duration of hospitalization.

Keywords: Mediterranean diet, malnutrition, nutritional status, prognostic factors for mortality

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: C. S. Bianca Sabrina, N. Egidio Raimundo, L. Alexandre Baratella, C. H. João Paulo

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This paper aims to present a study, with the theoretical concepts and applications of the Quadcopter, using the MATLAB simulator. In order to use this tool, the study of the stability of the drone through a Proportional - Integral - Derivative (PID) controller will be presented. After the stability study, some tests are done on the simulator and its results will be presented. From the mathematical model, it is possible to find the Newton-Euler angles, so that it is possible to stabilize the quadcopter in a certain position in the air, starting from the ground. In order to understand the impact of the controllers gain values on the stabilization of the Euler-Newton angles, three conditions will be tested with different controller gain values.

Keywords: controllers, drones, quadcopter, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu

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With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.

Keywords: traffic app, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables

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Authors: Svetlana Gusarova

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The essential role in the recent development of world economy has led to the developing countries, notably to BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Over the next 50 years the BRICS countries are expected to be the engines of global trade and economic growth. Trade cooperation of BRICS countries can enhance their economic development. BRICS countries were among Top 10 world exporters of office and telecom equipment, of textiles, of clothing, of iron and steel, of chemicals, of agricultural products, of automotive products, of fuel and mining products. China was one of the main trading partners of all BRICS countries, maintaining close relationship with all BRICS countries in the development of trade. Author analyzed trade complementarity of BRICS countries and revealed the high level of complementarity of their trade flows in connection with availability of specialization in different types of goods. The correlation and regression analysis of communication of Intra-BRICS merchandise turnover and their GDP (PPP) revealed very strong impact on the development of their economies.

Keywords: BRICS countries, trade cooperation, complementarity, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Yaroslav Pavlov

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In the modern world, ensuring quality has become increasingly important in various fields of human activity. One universal approach to quality management, proven effective in the food industry, is the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) concept. Based on principles of preventing potential hazards to consumers at all stages of production, from raw materials to the final product, HACCP offers a systematic approach to identifying, assessing risks, and managing critical control points (CCPs). Initially used primarily for food production, it was later effectively adapted to the food service sector. Implementing HACCP provides organizations with a reliable foundation for improving food safety, covering all links in the food chain from producer to consumer, making it an integral part of modern quality management systems. The main principles of HACCP—hazard identification, CCP determination, effective monitoring procedures, corrective actions, regular checks, and documentation—are universal and can be adapted to other areas. The adaptation of the HACCP concept is relevant for continuing professional education (CPE) with certain reservations. Specifically, it is reasonable to abandon the term ‘hazards’ as deviations in CCPs do not pose dangers, unlike in food production. However, the approach through CCP analysis and the use of HACCP's main principles for educational services are promising. This is primarily because it allows for identifying key CCPs based on the value creation model of a specific educational organization and consequently focusing efforts on specific CCPs to manage the quality of educational services. This methodology can be called the Analysis of Critical Points in Educational Services (ACPES). ACPES offers a similar approach to managing the quality of educational services, focusing on preventing and eliminating potential risks that could negatively impact the educational process, learners' achievement of set educational goals, and ultimately lead to students rejecting the organization's educational services. ACPES adapts proven HACCP principles to educational services, enhancing quality management effectiveness and student satisfaction. ACPES includes identifying potential problems at all stages of the educational process, from initial interest to graduation and career development. In ACPES, the term "hazards" is replaced with "problematic areas," reflecting the specific nature of the educational environment. Special attention is paid to determining CCPs—stages where corrective measures can most effectively prevent or minimize the risk of failing educational goals. The ACPES principles align with HACCP's principles, adjusted for the specificities of CPE. The method of the learner's journey map (variation of Customer Journey Map, CJM) can be used to overcome the complexity of formalizing the production chain in educational services. CJM provides a comprehensive understanding of the learner's experience at each stage, facilitating targeted and effective quality management. Thus, integrating the learner's journey map into ACPES represents a significant extension of the methodology's capabilities, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the educational process and forming an effective quality management system focused on meeting learners' needs and expectations.

Keywords: quality management, continuing professional education, customer journey map, HACCP

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, Hsiao-Yi Lin

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This study aims to determine the impact of the disclosure of flood potential map on housing prices. The disclosure is supposed to mitigate the market failure by reducing information asymmetry. On the other hand, opponents argue that the official disclosure of simulated results will only create unnecessary disturbances on the housing market. This study identifies the impact of the disclosure of the flood potential map by comparing the hedonic price of flood potential before and after the disclosure. The flood potential map used in this study is published by Taipei municipal government in 2015, which is a result of a comprehensive simulation based on geographical, hydrological, and meteorological factors. The residential property sales data of 2013 to 2016 is used in this study, which is collected from the actual sales price registration system by the Department of Land Administration (DLA). The result shows that the impact of flood potential on residential real estate market is statistically significant both before and after the disclosure. But the trend is clearer after the disclosure, suggesting that the disclosure does have an impact on the market. Also, the result shows that the impact of flood potential differs by the severity and frequency of precipitation. The negative impact for a relatively mild, high frequency flood potential is stronger than that for a heavy, low possibility flood potential. The result indicates that home buyers are of more concern to the frequency, than the intensity of flood. Another contribution of this study is in the methodological perspective. The classic hedonic price analysis with OLS regression suffers from two spatial problems: the endogeneity problem caused by omitted spatial-related variables, and the heterogeneity concern to the presumption that regression coefficients are spatially constant. These two problems are seldom considered in a single model. This study tries to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problem together by combining the spatial fixed-effect model and geographically weighted regression (GWR). A series of literature indicates that the hedonic price of certain environmental assets varies spatially by applying GWR. Since the endogeneity problem is usually not considered in typical GWR models, it is arguable that the omitted spatial-related variables might bias the result of GWR models. By combing the spatial fixed-effect model and GWR, this study concludes that the effect of flood potential map is highly sensitive by location, even after controlling for the spatial autocorrelation at the same time. The main policy application of this result is that it is improper to determine the potential benefit of flood prevention policy by simply multiplying the hedonic price of flood risk by the number of houses. The effect of flood prevention might vary dramatically by location.

Keywords: flood potential, hedonic price analysis, endogeneity, heterogeneity, geographically-weighted regression

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Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

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This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

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Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram

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This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.

Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model

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Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu

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Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.

Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP

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Authors: Ishtiaq Wahid, Masood Ahmad, Nighat Ayub, Sajad Ali

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Lifetime of a wireless sensor network (WSN) is directly proportional to the energy consumption of its constituent nodes. Routing in wireless sensor network is very challenging due its inherit characteristics. In hierarchal routing the sensor filed is divided into clusters. The cluster-heads are selected from each cluster, which forms a hierarchy of nodes. The cluster-heads are used to transmit the data to the base station while other nodes perform the sensing task. In this way the lifetime of the network is increased. In this paper a comparative study of hierarchal routing protocols are conducted. The simulation is done in NS-2 for validation.

Keywords: WSN, cluster, routing, sensor networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Shu-Hsi Ho

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The problems of aging and number of widowed peers gradually rise in Taiwan. It is worth to concern the related issues for elderly after the death of a spouse. Hence, this study is to examine the impact of spousal death on the surviving spouse’s self-perceived health and mental health for the elderly in Taiwan. A cross section data design and ordered logistic regression models are applied to investigate whether marriage is associated significantly to self-perceived health and mental health for the widowed older Taiwanese. The results indicate that widowed marriage shows significant negative effects on self-perceived health and mental health regardless of widows or widowers. Among them, widows might be more likely to show worse mental health than widowers. The belief confirms that marriage provides effective sources to promote self-perceived health and mental health, particularly for females. In addition, since the social welfare system is not perfect in Taiwan, the findings also suggest that family and social support reveal strongly association with the self-perceived health and mental health for the widows and widowers elderly.

Keywords: logistic regression models, self-perceived health, widow, widower

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Aayushi Lyngwa, Bimal Kishore Sahoo

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The study discusses the relationship between cognitive ability and the level of education attained by the tribal street entrepreneurs on their financial literacy. It is driven by the objective of examining the effect of cognitive ability on financial ability on the one hand and determining the effect of the same on financial literacy on the other. A field experiment was conducted on 203 tribal street vendors in the north-eastern Indian state of Mizoram. This experiment's calculations are conditioned by providing each question scores like math score (cognitive ability), financial score and debt score (financial ability). After that, categories for each of the variables, like math category (math score), financial category (financial score) and debt category (debt score), are generated to run the regression model. Since the dependent variable is ordinal, an ordered logit regression model was applied. The study shows that street vendors' cognitive and financial abilities are highly correlated. It, therefore, confirms that cognitive ability positively affects the financial literacy of street vendors through the increase in attainment of educational levels. It is also found that concerning the type of street vendors, regular street vendors are more likely to have better cognitive abilities than temporary street vendors. Additionally, street vendors with more cognitive and financial abilities gained better monthly profits and performed habits of bookkeeping. The study attempts to draw a particular focus on a set-up which is economically and socially marginalized in the Indian economy. Its finding contributes to understanding financial literacy in an understudied area and provides policy implications through inclusive financial systems solutions in an economy limited to tribal street vendors.

Keywords: financial literacy, education, street entrepreneurs, tribals, cognitive ability, financial ability, ordered logit regression.

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Authors: M. Firoz Kalam, Wilfried Schuetz, Jan Hendrik Bredehoeft

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Thiophene sulfur compounds' removal from diesel oil by batch adsorption process using commercial powdered activated carbon was designed and optimized in two-level factorial design method. This design analysis was used to find out the effects of operating parameters directing the adsorption process, such as amount of adsorbent, temperature and stirring time. The desulfurization efficiency was considered the response or output variable. Results showed that the stirring time had the largest effects on sulfur removal efficiency as compared with other operating parameters and their interactions under the experimental ranges studied. A regression model was generated to observe the closeness between predicted and experimental values. The three-dimensional plots and contour plots of main factors were generated according to the regression results to observe the optimal points.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorptive desulfurization, factorial design, process optimization

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Zachary Huffman, Joana Rocha

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Wall-pressure fluctuations induced by the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) developed over aircraft are a significant source of aircraft cabin noise. Since the power spectral density (PSD) of these pressure fluctuations is directly correlated with the amount of sound radiated into the cabin, the development of accurate empirical models that predict the PSD has been an important ongoing research topic. The sound emitted can be represented from the pressure fluctuations term in the Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Therefore, early TBL empirical models (including those from Lowson, Robertson, Chase, and Howe) were primarily derived by simplifying and solving the RANS for pressure fluctuation and adding appropriate scales. Most subsequent models (including Goody, Efimtsov, Laganelli, Smol’yakov, and Rackl and Weston models) were derived by making modifications to these early models or by physical principles. Overall, these models have had varying levels of accuracy, but, in general, they are most accurate under the specific Reynolds and Mach numbers they were developed for, while being less accurate under other flow conditions. Despite this, recent research into the possibility of using alternative methods for deriving the models has been rather limited. More recent studies have demonstrated that an artificial neural network model was more accurate than traditional models and could be applied more generally, but the accuracy of other machine learning techniques has not been explored. In the current study, an original model is derived using a stepwise regression algorithm in the statistical programming language R, and TBL wall-pressure fluctuations PSD data gathered at the Carleton University wind tunnel. The theoretical advantage of a stepwise regression approach is that it will automatically filter out redundant or uncorrelated input variables (through the process of feature selection), and it is computationally faster than machine learning. The main disadvantage is the potential risk of overfitting. The accuracy of the developed model is assessed by comparing it to independently sourced datasets.

Keywords: aircraft noise, machine learning, power spectral density models, regression models, turbulent boundary layer wall-pressure fluctuations

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Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo

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Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.

Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Lina Wu, Wenyi Lu, Ye Li

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Regarding heavy video game players for boys and super online chat lovers for girls as a symbolic phrase in the current adolescent culture, this project of data analysis verifies the displacement effect on deteriorating mathematics performance. To evaluate correlation or regression coefficients between a factor of playing video games or chatting online and mathematics performance compared with other factors, we use multivariate analysis technique and take gender difference into account. We find the most important reason for the negative sign of the displacement effect on mathematics performance due to students’ poor academic background. Statistical analysis methods in this project could be applied to study internet users’ academic performance from the high school education to the college education.

Keywords: correlation coefficients, displacement effect, multivariate analysis technique, regression coefficients

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Eric Dada Mungatana

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This study estimates the effect of climate-induced rural-urban migrants (RUM) on maize productivity. It uses panel data gathered by the National Statistics Office and the World Bank to understand the effect of RUM on the technical efficiency of maize production in rural Malawi. The study runs the two-stage Tobit regression to isolate the real effect of rural-urban migration on the technical efficiency of maize production. The results show that RUM significantly reduces the technical efficiency of maize production. However, the interaction of RUM and climate-smart agriculture has a positive and significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production, suggesting the need for re-investing migrants’ remittances in agricultural activities.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, farm productivity, rural-urban migration, panel stochastic frontier models, two-stage Tobit regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

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Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: H. E. Keshta, A. A. Ali

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Three phase grid-tied inverters are widely employed in micro-grids (MGs) as interphase between DC and AC systems. These inverters are usually controlled through standard decoupled d–q vector control strategy based on proportional integral (PI) controllers. Recently, advanced meta-heuristic optimization techniques have been used instead of deterministic methods to obtain optimum PI controller parameters. This paper provides a comparative study between the performance of the global Porcellio Scaber algorithm (GPSA) based PI controller and Manta Ray foraging optimization (MRFO) based PI controller.

Keywords: micro-grids, optimization techniques, grid-tied inverter control, PI controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Wondmnew Derebe

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Increased adoption of modern beehives improves the livelihood of smallholder farmers whose income largely depends on mixed crop-livestock farming. Improved beehives have been disseminated to farmers in many parts of Ethiopia. However, its impact on income is less investigated. Thus, this study estimates how adopting improved beehives impacts rural households' income. Survey data were collected from 350 randomly selected households' and analyzed using an endogenous switching regression model. The result revealed that the adoption of improved beehives is associated with a higher annual income. On average, improved beehive adopters earned about 6,077 (ETB) more money than their counterparts. However, the impact of adoption would have been larger for actual non-adopters, as reflected in the negative transitional heterogeneity effect of 1792 (ETB). The result also indicated that the decision to adopt or not to adopt improved beehives was subjected to individual self-selection. Improved beehive adoption can increase farmers' income and can be used as an alternative poverty reduction strategy.

Keywords: impact, adoption, endogenous switching regression, income, improved

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Authors: Ming Su, Ziqiang Mu

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This paper proposes a synthesis method for nonuniform linear antenna arrays that combine Gaussian process regression (GPR) and genetic algorithm (GA). In this method, the GPR model can be used to calculate the array radiation pattern in the presence of mutual coupling effects, and then the GA is used to optimize the excitations and locations of the elements so as to generate the desired radiation pattern. In this paper, taking a 9-element nonuniform linear array as an example and the desired radiation pattern corresponding to a Chebyshev distribution as the optimization objective, optimize the excitations and locations of the elements. Finally, the optimization results are verified by electromagnetic simulation software CST, which shows that the method is effective.

Keywords: nonuniform linear antenna arrays, GPR, GA, mutual coupling effects, active element pattern

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Authors: Matt Stallwood, Michael Spearpoint

Abstract:

In 2020, the UK government announced that sales of new petrol and diesel cars would end in 2030, and battery-powered cars made up 1 in 8 new cars sold in 2021 – more than the total from the previous five years. The guidance across the UK for the fire safety design of covered car parks is changing in response to the projected rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) use. This paper discusses the current knowledge on the fire safety concerns posed by EVs, in particular those powered by lithium-ion batteries, when considering the likelihood of vehicle ignition, fire severity and spread of fire to other vehicles. The paper builds on previous work that has investigated the frequency of fires starting in cars powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), the hazard posed by such fires in covered car parks and the potential for neighboring vehicles to become involved in an incident. Historical data has been used to determine the ignition frequency of ICE car fires, whereas such data is scarce when it comes to EV fires. Should a fire occur, then the fire development has conventionally been assessed to match a ‘medium’ growth rate and to have a 95th percentile peak heat release of 9 MW. The paper examines recent literature in which researchers have measured the burning characteristics of EVs to assess whether these values need to be changed. These findings are used to assess the risk posed by EVs when compared to ICE vehicles. The paper examines what new design guidance is being issued by various organizations across the UK, such as fire and rescue services, insurers, local government bodies and regulators and discusses the impact these are having on the arrangement of parking bays, particularly in residential and mixed-use buildings. For example, the paper illustrates how updated guidance published by the Fire Protection Association (FPA) on the installation of sprinkler systems has increased the hazard classification of parking buildings that can have a considerable impact on the feasibility of a building to meet all its design intents when specifying water supply tanks. Another guidance on the provision of smoke ventilation systems and structural fire resistance is also presented. The paper points to where further research is needed on the fire safety risks posed by EVs in covered car parks. This will ensure that any guidance is commensurate with the need to provide an adequate level of life and property safety in the built environment.

Keywords: covered car parks, electric vehicles, fire safety, risk

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Authors: Arjun G. Koppad

Abstract:

The study was conducted in Joida taluk of Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka, India, to assess the land use land cover (LULC) and forest aboveground biomass using L band SAR data. The study area covered has dense, moderately dense, and sparse forests. The sampled area was 0.01 percent of the forest area with 30 sampling plots which were selected randomly. The point center quadrate (PCQ) method was used to select the tree and collected the tree growth parameters viz., tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and diameter at the tree base. The tree crown density was measured with a densitometer. Each sample plot biomass was estimated using the standard formula. In this study, the LULC classification was done using Freeman-Durden, Yamaghuchi and Pauli polarimetric decompositions. It was observed that the Freeman-Durden decomposition showed better LULC classification with an accuracy of 88 percent. An attempt was made to estimate the aboveground biomass using SAR backscatter. The ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 L-band data (HH, HV, VV &VH) fully polarimetric quad-pol SAR data was used. SAR backscatter-based regression model was implemented to retrieve forest aboveground biomass of the study area. Cross-polarization (HV) has shown a good correlation with forest above-ground biomass. The Multi Linear Regression analysis was done to estimate aboveground biomass of the natural forest areas of the Joida taluk. The different polarizations (HH &HV, VV &HH, HV & VH, VV&VH) combination of HH and HV polarization shows a good correlation with field and predicted biomass. The RMSE and value for HH & HV and HH & VV were 78 t/ha and 0.861, 81 t/ha and 0.853, respectively. Hence the model can be recommended for estimating AGB for the dense, moderately dense, and sparse forest.

Keywords: forest, biomass, LULC, back scatter, SAR, regression

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Authors: Saima Shafiq, Najma Iqbal Malik

Abstract:

This study was aimed to explore the relationship of perceived stigma, perception of burden and psychological distress among parents of intellectually disabled children. The study also aimed to explore the moderating role of perceived social support on all the variables of the study. The sample of the study comprised of (N = 250) parents of intellectually disabled children. The present study utilized the co-relational research design. It consists of two phases. Phase-I consisted of two steps which contained the translation of two scales that were used in the present study and tried out on the sample of parents (N = 70). The Affiliated Stigma Scale and Care Giver Burden Inventory were translated into Urdu for the present study. Phase-1 revealed that translated scaled entailed satisfactory psychometric properties. Phase -II of the study was carried out in order to test the hypothesis. Correlation, linear regression analysis, and t-test were computed for hypothesis testing. Hierarchical regression analysis was applied to study the moderating effect of perceived social support. Findings revealed that there was a positive relationship between perceived stigma and psychological distress, perception of burden and psychological distress. Linear regression analysis showed that perceived stigma and perception of burden were positive predictors of psychological distress. The study did not show the moderating role of perceived social support among variables of the present study. The major limitation of the study is the sample size and the major implication is awareness regarding problems of parents of intellectually disabled children.

Keywords: perceived stigma, perception of burden, psychological distress, perceived social support

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Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

Abstract:

Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, Retailer

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Authors: Chi-Yueh Hsu, Hsuan-Liang Hsu, Hsiu-Hui Chiang

Abstract:

This study is to explore the relationship between the conspicuous consumption, leisure involvement and physical and mental health, and to understand the prediction of conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement to physical and mental health. The data was collected and analysed by purposive sampling, and the research objects were the dog walkers in Taiwan area. A total of 300 questionnaires were issued and after shaving the invalid questionnaire, a total of 246 valid samples were collected, and the effective rate was 82%.. The data were analyzed by correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement, and the conspicuous consumption and leisure involvement of dog walkers have a significant impact on physical and mental health, especially in self-expression, attractiveness and centrality of leisure involvement have a significant impact on physical and mental health.

Keywords: walking dog, attractiveness, self-expression, multiple stepwise regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 262