Search results for: statistical correlation

Authors: Igor Pejic

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The main focus of this research will be on analyzing correlative links between terrorism as an asymmetrical threat and the consequences it leaves on conventional security forces. The methodology behind the research will include qualitative research methods focusing on comparative analysis of books, scientific papers, documents and other sources, in order to deduce, explore and formulate the results of the research. With the coming of the 21^st century and the rising multi-polar, new world threats quickly emerged. The realistic approach in international relations deems that relations among nations are in a constant state of anarchy since there are no definitive rules and the distribution of power varies widely. International relations are further characterized by egoistic and self-orientated human nature, anarchy or absence of a higher government, security and lack of morality. The asymmetry of power is also reflected on countries' security capabilities and its abilities to project power. With the coming of the new millennia and the rising multi-polar world order, the asymmetry of power can be also added as an important trait of the global society which consequently brought new threats. Among various others, terrorism is probably the most well-known, well-based and well-spread asymmetric threat. In today's global political arena, terrorism is used by state and non-state actors to fulfill their political agendas. Terrorism is used as an all-inclusive tool for regime change, subversion or a revolution. Although the nature of terrorist groups is somewhat inconsistent, terrorism as a security and social phenomenon has a one constant which is reflected in its political dimension. The state's security apparatus, which was embodied in the form of conventional armed forces, is now becoming fragile, unable to tackle new threats and to a certain extent outdated. Conventional security forces were designed to defend or engage an exterior threat which is more or less symmetric and visible. On the other hand, terrorism as an asymmetrical threat is a part of hybrid, special or asymmetric warfare in which specialized units, institutions or facilities represent the primary pillars of security. In today's global society, terrorism is probably the most acute problem which can paralyze entire countries and their political systems. This problem, however, cannot be engaged on an open field of battle, but rather it requires a different approach in which conventional armed forces cannot be used traditionally and their role must be adjusted. The research will try to shed light on the phenomena of modern day terrorism and to prove its correlation with the state conventional armed forces. States are obliged to adjust their security apparatus to the new realism of global society and terrorism as an asymmetrical threat which is a side-product of the unbalanced world.

Keywords: asymmetrical warfare, conventional forces, security, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Ece Cigdem Mutlu, Burak Alakent

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Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level depends on the stability of process dispersion and location parameters and detection of perturbations in these parameters as promptly as possible. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used technique in statistical process monitoring to monitor the quality of products and control process mean and variability. In the application of Xbar control charts, sample standard deviation and sample mean are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators in determining process dispersion and location parameters, respectively, based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed datasets. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the real-world data would be normally distributed. In the cases of estimated process parameters from Phase I data clouded with outliers, efficiency of traditional estimators is significantly reduced, and performance of Xbar charts are undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups in Phase I data set may considerably affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products in Phase II. For more efficient application of control charts, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations, which may exist in Phase I. In the current study, we present a simple approach to construct robust Xbar control charts using average distance to the median, Qn-estimator of scale, M-estimator of scale with logistic psi-function in the estimation of process dispersion parameter, and Harrell-Davis qth quantile estimator, Hodge-Lehmann estimator and M-estimator of location with Huber psi-function and logistic psi-function in the estimation of process location parameter. Phase I efficiency of proposed estimators and Phase II performance of Xbar charts constructed from these estimators are compared with the conventional mean and standard deviation statistics both under normality and against diffuse-localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations using 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on MATLAB. Consequently, it is found that robust estimators yield parameter estimates with higher efficiency against all types of contaminations, and Xbar charts constructed using robust estimators have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods. Additionally, utilizing individuals charts to screen outlier subgroups and employing different combination of dispersion and location estimators on subgroups and individual observations are found to improve the performance of Xbar charts.

Keywords: average run length, M-estimators, quality control, robust estimators

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Authors: Lamphong Volady

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The primary purpose of this study was to explore the traditional cuisine (local food) of Luangprabang Province in line with the Lao PDR’s One District One Product Policy. Another purpose of the study was to examine channels used to present local food, reasons to preserve and promote local food, as well as local food preservation and promotion strategies. It also aimed at testing correlation hypotheses whether there is a statistically significant relationship between enjoyment of having local food and willingness to promote local cuisines becoming international cuisines, attractiveness to consume local food, preservation and promotion of local food problems, and local people’s occupations. The Convergent Parallel Mixed Methods were employed in this study. The results of the study showed that several local cuisines were found to be local food of Luangprabang Province, namely Jeow Bon (Chilli dipping suace), Or Lam or aw lahm (stew buffalo skin, herbs, Mai sakaan), Kai Pan (River Weed Dry), Tam Mak Houng Luangprabang (Papaya Salad), Nang (Yam Buffalo Skin Dry), Sai Oor (Sausage), Laap Sin Koay Sai Mar-Keua Pao (Beef Salad with Roasted Eggplants), Orm Born (Taro leaves Stew), Oor Nor Mai (Bamboo Shoot Sausage), Jeow Nam Poo (Pickled Crab Chillies), Mok Dok Kae (steaming or roasting a Dok Kae Wrapp), Nor Sa Wan, Kao Noom Kee Noo, Kao Noom Ba Bin. It also depicted that YouTube, Facebook, and TikTok were multiple social channels or platforms which were found to be used to introduce traditional food as well as television, smartphone, word of mouth, Lao food fairs and other provincial events. The study also found that local food should be preserved and promoted since traditional food is not only ancestral, ancient, traditional, and local cuisines, but it is also wisdom, unique, and national cuisine. The study also found that people feel attracted to consuming local food because local food is delicious, unique, clean, nutritious, non-contaminated and natural. The study showed that lack of funds to produce local food, inadequate draw materials, lack material to store products, insufficient place to produce and lack of related organizations engagement were found to be problems for preserving and promoting traditional food. Finally, the result of the study revealed that there is a statistically significant weak relationship between enjoyment of having local food and willingness to promote local cuisines becoming international cuisines (R²= 4.5%), (p-value <0.001). There is a statistically significant moderate relationship between enjoyment of having local food and attractiveness to consume local food (R²= 7.8%), (p-value <0.001). However, there is a statistically insignificant relationship between enjoyment of having local food and preservation and promotion of local food problems (R²= 1.8%), (p-value = 0.086). It was found that there is a statistically insignificant relationship between enjoyment of having local food and local people’s occupations (R²= 0.0%), (p-value = 0.929).

Keywords: local food, preservation, promotion, traditional food, cuisines

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Authors: Yu-Fong Lin

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The main purpose of this study is to explore the impact of different lighting arrangements that create different visual environments in a 3C retail store on the perception, psychology, and shopping tendencies of consumers of different genders. In recent years, the ‘emotional shopping’ model has been widely accepted in the consumer market; in addition to the emotional meaning and value of a product, the in-store ‘shopping atmosphere’ has also been increasingly regarded as significant. The lighting serves as an important environmental stimulus that influences the atmosphere of a store. Altering the lighting can change the color, the shape, and the atmosphere of a space. A successful retail lighting design can not only attract consumers’ attention and generate their interest in various goods, but it can also affect consumers’ shopping approach, behavior, and desires. 3C electronic products have become mainstream in the current consumer market. Consumers of different genders may demonstrate different behaviors and preferences within a 3C store environment. This study tests the impact of a combination of lighting contrasts and color temperatures in a 3C retail store on the visual perception and psychological reactions of consumers of different genders. The research design employs an experimental method to collect data from subjects and then uses statistical analysis adhering to a 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design to identify the influences of different lighting environments. This study utilizes virtual reality technology as the primary method by which to create four virtual store lighting environments. The four lighting conditions are as follows: high contrast/cool tone, high contrast/warm tone, low contrast/cool tone, and low contrast/warm tone. Differences in the virtual lighting and the environment are used to test subjects’ visual perceptions, emotional reactions, store satisfaction, approach-avoidance intentions, and spatial atmosphere preferences. The findings of our preliminary test indicate that female subjects have a higher pleasure response than male subjects in a 3C retail store. Based on the findings of our preliminary test, the researchers modified the contents of the questionnaires and the virtual 3C retail environment with different lighting conditions in order to conduct the final experiment. The results will provide information about the effects of retail lighting on the environmental psychology and the psychological reactions of consumers of different genders in a 3C retail store lighting environment. These results will enable useful practical guidelines about creating 3C retail store lighting and atmosphere for retailers and interior designers to be established.

Keywords: 3C retail store, environmental stimuli, lighting, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Ran Vir Singh, Anuj Chauhan, Subhodh Kumar, Rajesh Rathore, Satish Kumar, B Gopi, Sushil Kumar, Tarun Kumar, Ramji Yadav, Donna Phangchopi, Shoor Vir Singh

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Paratuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) is a chronic granulomatous enteritis affecting ruminants. It is responsible for significant economic losses in livestock industry worldwide. This organism is also of public health concern due to an unconfirmed link to Crohn’s disease. Susceptibility to paratuberculosis has been suggested to have genetic component with low to moderate heritability. Number of SNPs in various candidates genes have been observed to be affecting the susceptibility toward paratuberculosis. The objective of this study was to explore the association of various SNPs in the candidate genes and QTL region with MAP. A total of 117 SNPs from SLC11A1, IFNG, CARD15, TLR2, TLR4, CLEC7A, CD209, SP110, ANKARA2, PGLYRP1 and one QTL were selected for study. A total of 1222 cattle from various organized herds, gauhsalas and farmer herds were screened for MAP infection by Johnin intradermal skin test, AGID, serum ELISA, fecal microscopy, fecal culture and IS900 blood PCR. Based on the results of these tests, a case and control population of 200 and 183 respectively was established for study. A total of 117 SNPs from 10 candidate genes and one QTL were selected and validated/tested in our case and control population by PCR-RFLP technique. Data was analyzed using SAS 9.3 software. Statistical analysis revealed that, 107 out of 117 SNPs were not significantly associated with occurrence of MAP. Only SNP rs55617172 of TLR2, rs8193046 and rs8193060 of TLR4, rs110353594 and rs41654445 of CLEC7A, rs208814257of CD209, rs41933863 of ANKRA2, two loci {SLC11A1(53C/G)} and {IFNG (185 G/r) } and SNP rs41945014 in QTL region was significantly associated with MAP. Six SNP from 10 significant SNPs viz., rs110353594 and rs41654445 from CLEC7A, rs8193046 and rs8193060 from TLR4, rs109453173 from SLC11A1 rs208814257 from CD209 were validated in new case and control population. Out of these only one SNP rs8193046 of TLR4 gene was found significantly associated with occurrence of MAP in cattle. ODD ratio indicates that animals with AG genotype were more susceptible to MAP and this finding is in accordance with the earlier report. Hence it reaffirms that AG genotype can serve as a reliable genetic marker for indentifying more susceptible cattle in future selection against MAP infection in cattle.

Keywords: SNP, candidate genes, paratuberculosis, cattle

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Authors: Sridhar A. Malkaram, Tamer E. Fandy

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Purpose: 5-Azacytidine (5AC) and decitabine (DC) are DNA hypomethylating agents. We recently demonstrated that both drugs increase the enzymatic activity of the histone deacetylase enzyme SIRT6. Accordingly, we are comparing the changes H3K9 acetylation changes in the whole genome induced by both drugs using leukemia cells. Description of Methods & Materials: Mononuclear cells from the bone marrow of six de-identified naive acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients were cultured with either 500 nM of DC or 5AC for 72 h followed by ChIP-Seq analysis using a ChIP-validated acetylated-H3K9 (H3K9ac) antibody. Chip-Seq libraries were prepared from treated and untreated cells using SMARTer ThruPLEX DNA- seq kit (Takara Bio, USA) according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Libraries were purified and size-selected with AMPure XP beads at 1:1 (v/v) ratio. All libraries were pooled prior to sequencing on an Illumina HiSeq 1500. The dual-indexed single-read Rapid Run was performed with 1x120 cycles at 5 pM final concentration of the library pool. Sequence reads with average Phred quality < 20, with length < 35bp, PCR duplicates, and those aligning to blacklisted regions of the genome were filtered out using Trim Galore v0.4.4 and cutadapt v1.18. Reads were aligned to the reference human genome (hg38) using Bowtie v2.3.4.1 in end-to-end alignment mode. H3K9ac enriched (peak) regions were identified using diffReps v1.55.4 software using input samples for background correction. The statistical significance of differential peak counts was assessed using a negative binomial test using all individuals as replicates. Data & Results: The data from the six patients showed significant (Padj<0.05) acetylation changes at 925 loci after 5AC treatment versus 182 loci after DC treatment. Both drugs induced H3K9 acetylation changes at different chromosomal regions, including promoters, coding exons, introns, and distal intergenic regions. Ten common genes showed H3K9 acetylation changes by both drugs. Approximately 84% of the genes showed an H3K9 acetylation decrease by 5AC versus 54% only by DC. Figures 1 and 2 show the heatmaps for the top 100 genes and the 99 genes showing H3K9 acetylation decrease after 5AC treatment and DC treatment, respectively. Conclusion: Despite the similarity in hypomethylating activity and chemical structure, the effect of both drugs on H3K9 acetylation change was significantly different. More changes in H3K9 acetylation were observed after 5 AC treatments compared to DC. The impact of these changes on gene expression and the clinical efficacy of these drugs requires further investigation.

Keywords: DNA methylation, leukemia, decitabine, 5-Azacytidine, epigenetics

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Authors: Bistra Kunovska, Kremena Ivanova, Jana Djounova, Desislava Djunakova, Zdenka Stojanovska

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The carcinogenic effects of radon as a radioactive noble gas have been studied and show a strong correlation between radon exposure and lung cancer occurrence, even in the case of low radon levels. The major part of the natural radiation dose in humans is received by inhaling radon and its progenies, which originates from the decay chain of U-238. Indoor radon poses a substantial threat to human health when build-up occurs in confined spaces such as homes, mines and caves and the risk increases with the duration of radon exposure and is proportional to both the radon concentration and the time of exposure. Tourist caves are a case of special environmental conditions that may be affected by high radon concentration. Tourist caves are a recognized danger in terms of radon exposure to cave workers (guides, employees working in shops built above the cave entrances, etc.), but due to the sensitive nature of the cave environment, high concentrations cannot be easily removed. Forced ventilation of the air in the caves is considered unthinkable due to the possible harmful effects on the microclimate, flora and fauna. The risks to human health posed by exposure to elevated radon levels in caves are not well documented. Various studies around the world often detail very high concentrations of radon in caves and exposure of employees but without a follow-up assessment of the overall impact on human health. This study was developed in the implementation of a national project to assess the potential health effects caused by exposure to elevated levels of radon in buildings with public access under the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, in the framework of grant No КП-06-Н23/1/07.12.2018. The purpose of the work is to assess the radon level in Bulgarian caves and the exposure of the visitors and workers. The number of caves (sampling size) was calculated for simple random selection from total available caves 65 (sampling population) are 13 caves with confidence level 95 % and confidence interval (margin of error) approximately 25 %. A measurement of the radon concentration in air at specific locations in caves was done by using CR-39 type nuclear track-etch detectors that were placed by the participants in the research team. Despite the fact that all of the caves were formed in karst rocks, the radon levels were rather different from each other (97–7575 Bq/m3). An assessment of the influence of the orientation of the caves in the earth's surface (horizontal, inclined, vertical) on the radon concentration was performed. Evaluation of health hazards and radon risk exposure causing by inhaling the radon and its daughter products in each surveyed caves was done. Reducing the time spent in the cave has been recommended in order to decrease the exposure of workers.

Keywords: tourist caves, radon concentration, exposure, Bulgaria

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Authors: Rui Huang, Thomas Richard, Masood Mostofi

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The lifetime of impregnated diamond bits and their drilling efficiency are in part governed by the bit wear conditions, not only the extent of the diamonds’ wear but also their exposure or protrusion out of the matrix bonding. As much as individual diamonds wear, the bonding matrix does also wear through two-body abrasion (direct matrix-rock contact) and three-body erosion (cuttings trapped in the space between rock and matrix). Although there is some work dedicated to the study of diamond bit wear, there is still a lack of understanding on how matrix erosion and diamond exposure relate to the bit drilling response and drilling efficiency, as well as no literature on the process that governs bit sharpening a procedure commonly implemented by drillers when the extent of diamond polishing yield extremely low rate of penetration. The aim of this research is (i) to derive a correlation between the wear state of the bit and the drilling performance but also (ii) to gain a better understanding of the process associated with tool sharpening. The research effort combines specific drilling experiments and precise mapping of the tool-cutting face (impregnated diamond bits and segments). Bit wear is produced by drilling through a rock sample at a fixed rate of penetration for a given period of time. Before and after each wear test, the bit drilling response and thus efficiency is mapped out using a tailored design experimental protocol. After each drilling test, the bit or segment cutting face is scanned with an optical microscope. The test results show that, under the fixed rate of penetration, diamond exposure increases with drilling distance but at a decreasing rate, up to a threshold exposure that corresponds to the optimum drilling condition for this feed rate. The data further shows that the threshold exposure scale with the rate of penetration up to a point where exposure reaches a maximum beyond which no more matrix can be eroded under normal drilling conditions. The second phase of this research focuses on the wear process referred as bit sharpening. Drillers rely on different approaches (increase feed rate or decrease flow rate) with the aim of tearing worn diamonds away from the bit matrix, wearing out some of the matrix, and thus exposing fresh sharp diamonds and recovering a higher rate of penetration. Although a common procedure, there is no rigorous methodology to sharpen the bit and avoid excessive wear or bit damage. This paper aims to gain some insight into the mechanisms that accompany bit sharpening by carefully tracking diamond fracturing, matrix wear, and erosion and how they relate to drilling parameters recorded while sharpening the tool. The results show that there exist optimal conditions (operating parameters and duration of the procedure) for sharpening that minimize overall bit wear and that the extent of bit sharpening can be monitored in real-time.

Keywords: bit sharpening, diamond exposure, drilling response, impregnated diamond bit, matrix erosion, wear rate

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Authors: Jihane Saad, Thomas Lendormi, Caroline Le Marechal, Anne-marie Pourcher, Céline Druilhe, Jean-louis Lanoiselle

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Agricultural anaerobic digestion consists in the conversion of animal slurry and manure into biogas and digestate. They need, however, to be treated at 70 ºC during 60 min before anaerobic digestion according to the European regulation (EC n°1069/2009 & EU n°142/2011). The impact of such heat treatment on the outcome of bacteria has been poorly studied up to now. Moreover, a recent study¹ has shown that enterococci and clostridia are still detected despite the application of such thermal treatment, questioning the relevance of this approach for the hygienisation of digestate. The aim of this study is to establish the heat inactivation kinetics of two species of enterococci (Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium) and two species of clostridia (Clostridioides difficile and Clostridium novyi as a non-toxic model for Clostridium botulinum of group III). A pure culture of each strain was prepared in a specific sterile medium at concentration of 10⁴ – 10⁷ MPN / mL (Most Probable number), depending on the bacterial species. Bacterial suspensions were then filled in sterilized capillary tubes and placed in a water or oil bath at desired temperature for a specific period of time. Each bacterial suspension was enumerated using a MPN approach, and tests were repeated three times for each temperature/time couple. The inactivation kinetics of the four indicator bacteria is described using the Weibull model and the classical Bigelow model of first-order kinetics. The Weibull model takes biological variation, with respect to thermal inactivation, into account and is basically a statistical model of distribution of inactivation times as the classical first-order approach is a special case of the Weibull model. The heat treatment at 70 ºC / 60 min contributes to a reduction greater than 5 log10 for E. faecium and E. faecalis. However, it results only in a reduction of about 0.7 log10 for C. difficile and an increase of 0.5 log10 for C. novyi. Application of treatments at higher temperatures is required to reach a reduction greater or equal to 3 log10 for C. novyi (such as 30 min / 100 ºC, 13 min / 105 ºC, 3 min / 110 ºC, and 1 min / 115 ºC), raising the question of the relevance of the application of heat treatment at 70 ºC / 60 min for these spore-forming bacteria. To conclude, the heat treatment (70 ºC / 60 min) defined by the European regulation is sufficient to inactivate non-sporulating bacteria. Higher temperatures (> 100 ºC) are required as far as spore-forming bacteria concerns to reach a 3 log10 reduction (sporicidal activity).

Keywords: heat treatment, enterococci, clostridia, inactivation kinetics

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Authors: Gadinga Walter Forje, Martin Ngankam Tchamba, Nyong Princely Awazi, Barnabas Neba Nfornka

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Ecotourism is viewed as a double edge sword for the enhancement of conservation and local livelihood within a protected landscape. The Campo Ma’an National Park (CMNP) adopted ecotourism in its management plan as a strategic axis for better management of the park. The growing importance of ecotourism as a strategy for the sustainable management of CMNP and its environs requires adequate information to bolster the sector. This study was carried out between November 2018 and September 2021, with the main objective to contribute to the sustainable management of the CMNP through suggestions for enhancing the capacity of ecotourism in and around the park. More specifically, the study aimed at; 1) Analyse the governance of ecotourism in the CMNP and its surrounding; 2) Assessing the impact of ecotourism on local livelihood around the CMNP; 3) Evaluating the contribution of ecotourism to biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP; 4) Evaluate the determinants of ecotourism possibilities in achieving sustainable livelihood and biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained from household surveys (N=124), focus group discussions (N=8), and key informant interviews (N=16). Data collected were coded and imputed into SPSS (version 19.0) software and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Findings from the Chi-square test revealed overall poor ecotourism governance in and around the CMNP, with benefit sharing (X2 = 122.774, p <0.01) and conflict management (X2 = 90.839, p<0.01) viewed to be very poor. For the majority of the local population sampled, 65% think ecotourism does not contribute to local livelihood around CMNP. The main factors influencing the impact of ecotourism around the CMNP on the local population’s livelihood were gender (logistic regression (β) = 1.218; p = 0.000); and level of education (logistic regression (β) = 0.442; p = 0.000). Furthermore, 55.6% of the local population investigated believed ecotourism activities do not contribute to the biodiversity conservation of CMNP. Spearman correlation between socio-economic variables and ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation indicated relationships with gender (r = 0.200, p = 0.032), main occupation (r = 0.300 p = 0.012), time spent in the community (r = 0.287 p = 0.017), and number of children (r =-0.286 p = 0.018). Variables affecting ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation were age (logistic regression (β) = -0.683; p = 0.037) and gender (logistic regression (β) = 0.917; p = 0.045). This study recommends the development of ecotourism-friendly policies that can accelerate Public Private Partnership for the sustainable management of the CMNP as a commitment toward good governance. It also recommends the development of gender-sensitive ecotourism packages, with fair opportunities for rural women and more parity in benefit sharing to improve livelihood and contribute more to biodiversity conservation in and around the Park.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Campo Ma’an national park, ecotourism, ecotourism governance, rural livelihoods, protected area management

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Authors: Nazia Muhsin, Tofael Ahamed, Ryozo Noguchi, Tomohiro Takigawa

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One of the most challenging issues to achieve sustainable development on food security is land use changes. The crisis of lands for agricultural production mainly arises from the unplanned transformation of agricultural lands to infrastructure development i.e. urbanization and industrialization. Land use without sustainability assessment could have impact on the food security and environmental protections. Bangladesh, as the densely populated country with limited arable lands is now facing challenges to meet sustainable food security. Agricultural lands are using for economic growth by establishing industries. The industries are spreading from urban areas to the suburban areas and using the agricultural lands. To minimize the agricultural land losses for unplanned industrialization, compact economic zones should be find out in a scientific approach. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to find out suitable sites for industrial growth by land suitability analysis (LSA) by using Geographical Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The goal of the study was to emphases both agricultural lands and industries for sustainable development in land use. The study also attempted to analysis the agricultural land use changes in a suburban area by statistical data of agricultural lands and primary data of the existing industries of the study place. The criteria were selected as proximity to major roads, and proximity to local roads, distant to rivers, waterbodies, settlements, flood-flow zones, agricultural lands for the LSA. The spatial dataset for the criteria were collected from the respective departments of Bangladesh. In addition, the elevation spatial dataset were used from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) data source. The criteria were further analyzed with factors and constraints in ArcGIS®. Expert’s opinion were applied for weighting the criteria according to the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-criteria technique. The decision rule was set by using ‘weighted overlay’ tool to aggregate the factors and constraints with the weights of the criteria. The LSA found only 5% of land was most suitable for industrial sites and few compact lands for industrial zones. The developed LSA are expected to help policy makers of land use and urban developers to ensure the sustainability of land uses and agricultural production.

Keywords: AHP (analytical hierarchy process), GIS (geographic information system), LSA (land suitability analysis), MCA (multi-criteria analysis)

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Authors: A. Shakoor, M. Arshad

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The utilization of groundwater resources in irrigation has significantly increased during the last two decades due to constrained canal water supplies. More than 70% of the farmers in the Punjab, Pakistan, depend directly or indirectly on groundwater to meet their crop water demands and hence, an unchecked paradigm shift has resulted in aquifer depletion and deterioration. Therefore, a comprehensive research was carried at central Punjab-Pakistan, regarding spatiotemporal variation in groundwater level and quality. Processing MODFLOW for window (PMWIN) and MT3D (solute transport model) models were used for existing and future prediction of groundwater level and quality till 2030. The comprehensive data set of aquifer lithology, canal network, groundwater level, groundwater salinity, evapotranspiration, groundwater abstraction, recharge etc. were used in PMWIN model development. The model was thus, successfully calibrated and validated with respect to groundwater level for the periods of 2003 to 2007 and 2008 to 2012, respectively. The coefficient of determination (R2) and model efficiency (MEF) for calibration and validation period were calculated as 0.89 and 0.98, respectively, which argued a high level of correlation between the calculated and measured data. For solute transport model (MT3D), the values of advection and dispersion parameters were used. The model used for future scenario up to 2030, by assuming that there would be no uncertain change in climate and groundwater abstraction rate would increase gradually. The model predicted results revealed that the groundwater would decline from 0.0131 to 1.68m/year during 2013 to 2030 and the maximum decline would be on the lower side of the study area, where infrastructure of canal system is very less. This lowering of groundwater level might cause an increase in the tubewell installation and pumping cost. Similarly, the predicted total dissolved solids (TDS) of the groundwater would increase from 6.88 to 69.88mg/L/year during 2013 to 2030 and the maximum increase would be on lower side. It was found that in 2030, the good quality would reduce by 21.4%, while marginal and hazardous quality water increased by 19.28 and 2%, respectively. It was found from the simulated results that the salinity of the study area had increased due to the intrusion of salts. The deterioration of groundwater quality would cause soil salinity and ultimately the reduction in crop productivity. It was concluded from the predicted results of groundwater model that the groundwater deteriorated with the depth of water table i.e. TDS increased with declining groundwater level. It is recommended that agronomic and engineering practices i.e. land leveling, rainwater harvesting, skimming well, ASR (Aquifer Storage and Recovery Wells) etc. should be integrated to meliorate management of groundwater for higher crop production in salt affected soils.

Keywords: groundwater quality, groundwater management, PMWIN, MT3D model

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Authors: Mmbulaheni Ramulondi, Sandy Van Vuuren, Helene De Wet

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The use of plant combinations to treat various medical conditions is not a new concept, and it is known that traditional people do not only rely on a single plant extract for efficacy but often combine various plant species for treatment. The knowledge of plant combinations is transferred from one generation to the other in the belief that combination therapy may enhance efficacy, reduce toxicity, decreases adverse effects, increase bioavailability and result in lower dosages. However, combination therapy may also be harmful when the interaction is antagonistic, since it may result in increasing toxicity. Although a fair amount of research has been done on the toxicity of medicinal plants, there is very little done on the toxicity of medicinal plants in combination. The aim of the study was to assess the toxicity potential of 19 plant combinations which have been documented as treatments of hypertension in northern KwaZulu-Natal by lay people. The aqueous extracts were assessed using two assays; the Brine shrimp assay (Artemia franciscana) and the Ames test (Mutagenicity). Only one plant combination (Aloe marlothii with Hypoxis hemerocallidea) in the current study has been previously assessed for toxicity. With the Brine shrimp assay, the plant combinations were tested in two concentrations (2 and 4 mg/ml), while for mutagenicity tests, they were tested at 5 mg/ml. The results showed that in the Brine shrimp assay, six combinations were toxic at 4 mg/ml. The combinations were Albertisia delagoensis with Senecio serratuloides (57%), Aloe marlothii with Catharanthus roseus (98%), Catharanthus roseus with Hypoxis hemerocallidea (66%), Catharanthus roseus with Musa acuminata (89%), Catharanthus roseus with Momordica balsamina (99%) and Aloe marlothii with Trichilia emetica and Hyphaene coriacea (50%). However when the concentration was reduced to 2 mg/ml, only three combinations were toxic which were Aloe marlothii with Catharanthus roseus (76%), Catharanthus roseus with Musa acuminata (66%) and Catharanthus roseus with Momordica balsamina (73%). For the mutagenicity assay, only the combinations between Catharanthus roseus with Hypoxis hemerocallidea and Catharanthus roseus with Momordica balsamina were mutagenic towards the Salmonella typhimurium strains TA98 and TA100. Most of the combinations which were toxic involve C. roseus which was also toxic when tested singularly. It is worth noting that C. roseus was one of the most frequently used plant species both to treat hypertension singularly and in combination and some of the individuals have been using this for the last 20 years. The mortality percentage of the Brine shrimp showed a significant correlation between dosage and toxicity thus toxicity was dosage dependant. A combination which is worth noting is the combination between A. delagoensis and S. serratuloides. Singularly these plants were non-toxic towards Brine shrimp, however their combination resulted in antagonism with the mortality rate of 57% at the total concentration of 4 mg/ml. Low toxicity was mostly observed, giving some validity to combined use, however the few combinations showing increased toxicity demonstrate the importance of analysing plant combinations.

Keywords: dosage, hypertension, plant combinations, toxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Leif Inge Tjelta, Gerd Lise Nordbotten, Cathrine Nyhus Hagum, Merete Hagen Helland

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Overweight and obesity can lead to numerous health problems, and inactive people are more often overweight and obese compared to physically active people. Even a moderate weight loss can improve cardiovascular and endocrine disease risk factors. The aim of the study was to examine to what extent overweight and obese adults starting up with two weekly intensive running sessions had an increase in aerobic capacity, reduction in BMI and waist circumference and changes in body composition after 33 weeks of training. An additional aim was to see if there were differences between participants who, in addition to training, also received lifestyle modification education, including practical cooking (nutritional guidance and training group (NTG =32)) compared to those who were not given any nutritional guidance (training group (TG=40)). 72 participants (49 women), mean age of 46.1 ( ± 10.4) were included. Inclusion Criteria: Previous untrained and inactive adults in all age groups, BMI ≥ 25, desire to become fitter and reduce their BMI. The two weekly supervised training sessions consisted of 10 min warm up followed by 20 to 21 min effective interval running where the participants’ heart rate were between 82 and 92% of hearth rate maximum. The sessions were completed with ten minutes whole body strength training. Measures of BMI, waist circumference (WC) and 3000m running time were performed at the start of the project (T1), after 15 weeks (T2) and at the end of the project (T3). Measurements of fat percentage, muscle mass, and visceral fat were performed at T1 and T3. Twelve participants (9 women) from both groups, who all scored around average on the 3000 m pre-test, were chosen to do a VO₂max test at T1 and T3. The NTG were given ten theoretical sessions (80 minutes each) and eight practical cooking sessions (140 minutes each). There was a significant reduction in bout groups for WC and BMI from T1 to T2. There was not found any further reduction from T2 to T3. Although not significant, NTG reduced their WC more than TG. For both groups, the percentage reduction in WC was similar to the reduction in BMI. There was a decrease in fat percentage in both groups from pre-test to post-test, whereas, for muscle mass, a small, but insignificant increase was observed for both groups. There was a decrease in 3000m running time for both groups from T1 to T2 as well as from T2 to T3. The difference between T2 and T3 was not statistically significant. The 12 participants who tested VO₂max had an increase of 2.86 ( ± 3.84) mlkg⁻¹ min⁻¹ in VO₂max and 3:02 min (± 2:01 min) reduction in running time over 3000 m from T1 until T3. There was a strong, negative correlation between the two variables. The study shows that two intensive running session in 33 weeks can increase aerobic fitness and reduce BMI, WC and fat percent in inactive adults. Cost guidance in addition to training will give additional effect.

Keywords: interval training, nutritional guidance, fitness, BMI

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Ketevan Janashia, Tamar Tsibadze, Levan Tvildiani, Nikoloz Invia, Elguja Kubaneishvili, Vasili Kukhianidze, George Ramishvili

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This study considers the possible effects of geomagnetic activity (GMA) on humans situated on Earth by performing experiments concerning specific sensitive reactions in humans in both: natural conditions during different GMA and by the simulation of different GMA in the lab. The measurements of autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses to different GMA via measuring the heart rate variability (HRV) indices and stress index (SI) and their comparison with the K-index of GMA have been presented and discussed. The results of experiments indicate an intensification of the sympathetic part of the ANS as a stress reaction of the human organism when it is exposed to high level of GMA as natural as well as in simulated conditions. Aim: We tested the hypothesis whether the GMF when disturbed can have effects on human ANS causing specific sensitive stress-reactions depending on the initial type of ANS. Methods: The study focuses on the effects of different GMA on ANS by comparing of HRV indices and stress index (SI) of n= 78, 18-24 years old healthy male volunteers. Experiments were performed as natural conditions on days of low (K= 1-3) and high (K= 5-7) GMA as well as in the lab by the simulation of different GMA using the device of geomagnetic storm (GMS) compensation and simulation. Results: In comparison with days of low GMA (K=1-3) the initial values of HRV shifted towards the intensification of the sympathetic part (SP) of the ANS during days of GMSs (K=5-7) with statistical significance p-values: HR (heart rate, p= 0.001), SDNN (Standard deviation of all Normal to Normal intervals, p= 0.0001), RMSSD (The square root of the arithmetical mean of the sum of the squares of differences between adjacent NN intervals, p= 0.0001). In comparison with conditions during GMSs compensation mode (K= 0, B= 0-5nT), the ANS balance was observed to shift during exposure to simulated GMSs with intensities in the range of natural GMSs (K= 7, B= 200nT). However, the initial values of the ANS resulted in different dynamics in its variation depending of GMA level. In the case of initial balanced regulation type (HR > 80) significant intensification of SP was observed with p-values: HR (p= 0.0001), SDNN (p= 0.047), RMSSD (p= 0.28), LF/HF (p=0.03), SI (p= 0.02); while in the case of initial parasympathetic regulation type (HR < 80), an insignificant shift to the intensification of the parasympathetic part (PP) was observed. Conclusions: The results indicate an intensification of SP as a stress reaction of the human organism when it is exposed to high level of GMA in both natural and simulated conditions.

Keywords: autonomic nervous system, device of magneto compensation/simulation, geomagnetic storms, heart rate variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Doaa H. Elgohary, Tamer F. Khalifa, Mona M. Salem, M. A. Saad, Ehab Haider Sherazy

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Textiles have conquered new areas over the past three decades, including agriculture, transportation, filtration, military, and medicine. The use of textiles in the medical field has increased significantly in recent years and covers almost everything. Medical textiles represent a huge market as they are widely used not only in hospitals, hygiene, and healthcare but also in hotels and other environments where hygiene is required. However, not all fibers are suitable for the manufacture of medical textile products. Some special properties are required for the manufactured materials, e.g. Strength, elasticity, spinnability, etc. In addition to the usual properties of medical fibers, non-toxicity, sterilizability, biocompatibility, biodegradability, good absorbability, softness, and freedom from additives, etc., desirable properties include impurities. Stitching is one of the most common practices in the medical field. as it is a biomaterial device, either natural or synthetic, used to connect blood vessels and connect tissues. In addition to being very strong, suture material should easily dissolve in bodily fluids and lose strength as the tissue gains strength. In this work, a study to select the most used materials for sutures, it was found that silk, VICRYL and polypropylene were the most used materials in varying numbers. The research involved the analysis of 36 samples from three different materials (mostly commonly used), the tests were carried out on 36 imported samples for four different companies. Each company supplied three different materials (silk, VICRYL and polypropylene) with three different gauges (4, 3.5 and 3 metric). The results of the study were tabulated, presented, and discussed. Practical statistical science serves to support the practical analysis of experimental work products and the various relationships between variables to achieve the best sampling performance with the functional purpose generated for it. Analysis of the imported sutures shows that VICRYL sutures had the highest tensile strength, toughness, knot tensile strength and knot toughness, followed by polypropylene and silk. As yarn counts, weight and diameter increase, its tensile strength and toughness increase while its elongation and knot tension decrease. The multifilament yarn construction (silk and VICRYL) scores higher compared to the monofilament construction (polypropylene), resulting in increases in tenacity, toughness, knot tensile strength and knot toughness.

Keywords: biodegradable yarns, braided sutures, irritation, knot tying, medical textiles, surgical sutures, wound healing

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Mona Mohamed Shawkt Ragab, Heba Mohamed Darwish

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Context: Comfort properties of garments are crucial for the wearer, and with the increasing demand for cotton fabric, there is a need to explore alternative fabrics that can offer similar or superior comfort properties. This study focuses on comparing the comfort properties of tencel/cotton single jersey fabric and cotton single jersey fabric, with the aim of identifying fabrics that are more suitable for summer clothes. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to evaluate the comfort properties of tencel/cotton single jersey fabric and cotton single jersey fabric, with the goal of identifying fabrics that can serve as alternatives to cotton, considering their comfort properties for summer clothing. Methodology: An experimental, analytical approach was employed in this study. Two circular knitting machines were used to produce the fabrics, one with a 24 inches gauge and the other with a 28 inches gauge. Both fabrics were knitted with three different loop lengths (3.05 mm, 2.9 mm, and 2.6 mm) to obtain loose, medium, and tight fabrics for evaluation. Various comfort properties, including air permeability, water vapor permeability, wickability, and thermal resistance, were measured for both fabric types. Findings: The study found a significant difference in comfort properties between tencel/cotton single jersey fabric and cotton single jersey fabric. Tencel/cotton fabric exhibited higher air permeability, water vapor permeability, and wickability compared to cotton fabric. These findings suggest that tencel fabric is more suitable for summer clothes due to its superior ventilation and absorption properties. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the exploration of alternative fabrics to cotton by evaluating their comfort properties. By identifying fabrics that offer better comfort properties than cotton, particularly in terms of water usage, the study provides valuable insights into sustainable fabric choices for the fashion industry. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The comfort properties of the fabrics were measured using appropriate testing methods. Paired comparison t-tests were conducted to determine the significant differences between tencel/cotton fabric and cotton fabric in the measured properties. Correlation coefficients were also calculated to examine the relationships between the factors under study. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether tencel/cotton single jersey fabric can serve as an alternative to cotton fabric for summer clothes, considering their comfort properties. Conclusion: The study concludes that tencel/cotton single jersey fabric offers superior comfort properties compared to cotton single jersey fabric, making it a suitable alternative for summer clothes. The findings also highlight the importance of considering fabric properties, such as air permeability, water vapor permeability, and wickability, when selecting materials for garments to enhance wearer comfort. This research contributes to the search for sustainable alternatives to cotton and provides valuable insights for the fashion industry in making informed fabric choices.

Keywords: comfort properties, cotton fabric, tencel fabric, single jersey

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Chalachew Kassaw, Henok Ababu, Bethelhem Sileshy, Lulu Abebe, Birhanie Mekuriaw

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Background: Psychological discomfort is a state of emotional distress caused by everyday stressors and obligations that are difficult to manage. Orthopedic trauma has a wide range of effects on survivors' physical health, as well as a variety of mental health concerns that impede recovery. Psychiatric and behavioral conditions are 3-5 times more common in people who have undergone physical trauma, and they are a predictor of poor outcomes. Despite the above facts, there is a shortage of research done on the subject. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the magnitude of psychological distress and associated factor among patients attending orthopedic treatment at Gedeo zone, South Ethiopia 2022. Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken at Dilla University Referral Hospital from October –November 2022. The data was collected via a face-to-face interview, and the Kessler psychological distress scale (K-10) was used to assess psychological distress. A total of 386 patients receiving outpatient and inpatient services at the orthopedic unit were chosen using a simple random selection technique. A Statistical Package for the Social Science version 21 (SPSS-21) was used to enter and evaluate the data. To find related factors, bivariate, and multivariate logistic regressions were used. Variables having a p-value of less than 0.05 were deemed statistically significant. Result: A total of 386 participants with a response rate of 94.8% were included in the study. Out of all respondents, 114 (31.4%) of the individuals have experienced psychological distress. Independent variables such as Females [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.8, 95%CI=(4.6-15.6)], Average monthly income of <3500 birrs [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =4.8, 95% CI=(2.4-9.8) ], Current history of substance use [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.6, 95% CI=(1.66-4.7)], Strong social support [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=0.4, 95% CI= 0.4(0.2-0.8)], and Poor sleep quality (PSQI score>5) [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.0, 95%CI= 2.0(1.2-2.8)] were significantly associated with psychological distress. Conclusion: The prevalence of psychological distress was high. Being female, having poor social support, and having a high PSQI score were significantly associated factors with psychological distress. It is good if clinicians emphasize orthopedic patients, especially females and those having poor social support and low sleep quality symptoms.

Keywords: psychological distress, orthopedic unit, Dilla University hospital, Dilla Town, Southern Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Christoph Opperer

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Space syntax is a theory and method for analyzing the spatial layout of buildings and urban environments to understand how they can influence patterns of human movement, social interaction, and behavior. While direct visibility is a key factor in space syntax research, important visual information such as light, color, texture, etc., are typically not considered, even though psychological studies have shown a strong correlation to the human perceptual experience within physical space – with light and color, for example, playing a crucial role in shaping the perception of spaciousness. Furthermore, these surface properties are often the visual features that are most salient and responsible for drawing attention to certain elements within the environment. This paper explores the potential of integrating these factors into general space syntax methods and visibility-based analysis of space, particularly for architectural spatial layouts. To this end, we use a combination of geometric (isovist) and topological (visibility graph) approaches together with image-based methods, allowing a comprehensive exploration of the relationship between spatial geometry, visual aesthetics, and human experience. Custom-coded ray-tracing techniques are employed to generate spherical panorama images, encoding three-dimensional spatial data in the form of two-dimensional images. These images are then processed through computer vision algorithms to generate saliency-maps, which serve as a visual representation of areas most likely to attract human attention based on their visual properties. The maps are subsequently used to weight the vertices of isovists and the visibility graph, placing greater emphasis on areas with high saliency. Compared to traditional methods, our weighted visibility analysis introduces an additional layer of information density by assigning different weights or importance levels to various aspects within the field of view. This extends general space syntax measures to provide a more nuanced understanding of visibility patterns that better reflect the dynamics of human attention and perception. Furthermore, by drawing parallels to traditional isovist and VGA analysis, our weighted approach emphasizes a crucial distinction, which has been pointed out by Ervin and Steinitz: the difference between what is possible to see and what is likely to be seen. Therefore, this paper emphasizes the importance of including surface properties in visibility-based analysis to gain deeper insights into how people interact with their surroundings and to establish a stronger connection with human attention and perception.

Keywords: space syntax, visibility analysis, isovist, visibility graph, visual features, human perception, saliency detection, raytracing, spherical images

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Orit Baruth, Anat Cohen

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Online courses have become common in many learning programs and various learning environments, particularly in higher education. Social distancing forced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the demand for these courses. Yet, despite the frequency of use, online learning is not free of limitations and may not suit all learners. Hence, the growth of online learning alongside with learners' diversity raises the question: is online learning, as it currently offered, meets the needs of each learner? Fortunately, today's technology allows to produce tailored learning platforms, namely, personalization. Personality influences learner's satisfaction and therefore has a significant impact on learning effectiveness. A better understanding of personality can lead to a greater appreciation of learning needs, as well to assists educators ensure that an optimal learning environment is provided. In the context of online learning and personality, the research on learning design according to personality traits is lacking. This study explores the relations between personality traits (using the 'Big-five' model) and students' satisfaction with five techno-pedagogical learning solutions (TPLS): discussion groups, digital books, online assignments, surveys/polls, and media, in order to provide an online learning process to students' satisfaction. Satisfaction level and personality identification of 108 students who participated in a fully online learning course at a large, accredited university were measured. Cluster analysis methods (k-mean) were applied to identify learners’ clusters according to their personality traits. Correlation analysis was performed to examine the relations between the obtained clusters and satisfaction with the offered TPLS. Findings suggest that learners associated with the 'Neurotic' cluster showed low satisfaction with all TPLS compared to learners associated with the 'Non-neurotics' cluster. learners associated with the 'Consciences' cluster were satisfied with all TPLS except discussion groups, and those in the 'Open-Extroverts' cluster were satisfied with assignments and media. All clusters except 'Neurotic' were highly satisfied with the online course in general. According to the findings, dividing learners into four clusters based on personality traits may help define tailor learning paths for them, combining various TPLS to increase their satisfaction. As personality has a set of traits, several TPLS may be offered in each learning path. For the neurotics, however, an extended selection may suit more, or alternatively offering them the TPLS they less dislike. Study findings clearly indicate that personality plays a significant role in a learner's satisfaction level. Consequently, personality traits should be considered when designing personalized learning activities. The current research seeks to bridge the theoretical gap in this specific research area. Establishing the assumption that different personalities need different learning solutions may contribute towards a better design of online courses, leaving no learner behind, whether he\ she likes online learning or not, since different personalities need different learning solutions.

Keywords: online learning, personality traits, personalization, techno-pedagogical learning solutions

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Tirtha Raj Adhikari, Lochan Prasad Devkota

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This research studied the hydrological regime of three glacierized river basins in Khumbu, Langtang and Annapurna regions of Nepal using the Hydraologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavde (HBV), HVB-light 3.0 model. Future scenario of discharge is also studied using downscaled climate data derived from statistical downscaling method. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data from Coupled Global Circulation Model 3 (CGCM3) was used for the climate projection, under A2 and A1B SRES scenarios. In addition, the observed historical temperature, precipitation and discharge data were collected from 14 different hydro-metrological locations for the implementation of this study, which include watershed and hydro-meteorological characteristics, trends analysis and water balance computation. The simulated precipitation and temperature were corrected for bias before implementing in the HVB-light 3.0 conceptual rainfall-runoff model to predict the flow regime, in which Groups Algorithms Programming (GAP) optimization approach and then calibration were used to obtain several parameter sets which were finally reproduced as observed stream flow. Except in summer, the analysis showed that the increasing trends in annual as well as seasonal precipitations during the period 2001 - 2060 for both A2 and A1B scenarios over three basins under investigation. In these river basins, the model projected warmer days in every seasons of entire period from 2001 to 2060 for both A1B and A2 scenarios. These warming trends are higher in maximum than in minimum temperatures throughout the year, indicating increasing trend of daily temperature range due to recent global warming phenomenon. Furthermore, there are decreasing trends in summer discharge in Langtang Khola (Langtang region) which is increasing in Modi Khola (Annapurna region) as well as Dudh Koshi (Khumbu region) river basin. The flow regime is more pronounced during later parts of the future decades than during earlier parts in all basins. The annual water surplus of 1419 mm, 177 mm and 49 mm are observed in Annapurna, Langtang and Khumbu region, respectively.

Keywords: temperature, precipitation, water discharge, water balance, global warming

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Ahmed A. El-Gindy, Elham S. El-Nashar, Abdallah Nafaa, Sameh El-Kafrawy

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The generation of energy from marine energy became one of the most preferable resources since it is a clean source and friendly to environment. Egypt has long shores along Mediterranean with important cities that need energy resources with significant wave energy. No detailed studies have been done on wave energy distribution in the Egyptian waters. The objective of this paper is to assess the energy wave power available in the Egyptian waters for the choice of the most suitable devices to be used in this area. This paper deals the characteristics and power of the offshore waves in the Egyptian waters. Since the field observations of waves are not frequent and need much technical work, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis data in Mediterranean, with a grid size 0.75 degree, which is a relatively course grid, are considered in the present study for preliminary assessment of sea waves characteristics and power. The used data covers the period from 2012 to 2014. The data used are significant wave height (swh), mean wave period (mwp) and wave direction taken at six hourly intervals, at seven chosen stations, and at grid points covering the Egyptian waters. The wave power (wp) formula was used to calculate energy flux. Descriptive statistical analysis including monthly means and standard deviations of the swh, mwp, and wp. The percentiles of wave heights and their corresponding power are done, as a tool of choice of the best technology suitable for the site. The surfer is used to show spatial distributions of wp. The analysis of data at chosen 7 stations determined the potential of wp off important Egyptian cities. Offshore of Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and October (1.49-1.69) ± (1.45-1.74) kw/m. In front of Alexandria and Rashid, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and September (1.29-2.01) ± (1.31-1.83) kw/m. In front of Damietta and Port Said, the highest wp occurred in February (14.29-17.61) ± (21.61-27.10) kw/m and the lowest occurred in June (0.94-0.96) ± (0.71-0.72) kw/m. In winter, the probabilities of waves higher than 0.8 m in percentage were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (76.56-80.33) ± (11.62-12.05), at Alexandria and Rashid (73.67-74.79) ± (16.21-18.59) and at Damietta and Port Said (66.28-68.69) ± (17.88-17.90). In spring, the percentiles were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, (48.17-50.92) ± (5.79-6.56), at Alexandria and Rashid, (39.38-43.59) ± (9.06-9.34) and at Damietta and Port Said, (31.59-33.61) ± (10.72-11.25). In summer, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (57.70-66.67) ± (4.87-6.83), at Alexandria and Rashid (59.96-65.13) ± (9.14-9.35) and at Damietta and Port Said (46.38-49.28) ± (10.89-11.47). In autumn, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (58.75-59.56) ± (2.55-5.84), at Alexandria and Rashid (47.78-52.13) ± (3.11-7.08) and at Damietta and Port Said (41.16-42.52) ± (7.52-8.34).

Keywords: distribution of sea waves energy, Egyptian Mediterranean waters, waves characteristics, waves power

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Nicole Harley, Mahmoud Eid, Abdurahman Tarmal, Vishal Dey

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Histological sampling plays an integral role in the diagnostic process of renal diseases. Percutaneous native renal biopsy is typically performed under ultrasound guidance, with this service usually being provided by nephrologists. In some centers, there is a role for radiologists in performing renal biopsies. Previous comparative studies have demonstrated non-inferiority between outcomes of percutaneous native renal biopsies performed by nephrologists compared with radiologists. We sought to compare biopsy adequacy between nephrologists and radiologists in University Hospital Crosshouse. The online system SERPR (Scottish Electronic Renal Patient Record) contains information pertaining to patients who have undergone renal biopsies. An online search was performed to acquire a list of all patients who underwent renal biopsy between 2013 and 2020 in University Hospital Crosshouse. 355 native renal biopsies were performed in total across this 7-year period. A retrospective analysis was performed on these cases, with records and reports being assessed for: the total number of glomeruli obtained per biopsy, whether the number of glomeruli obtained was adequate for diagnosis, as per an internationally agreed standard, and whether a histological diagnosis was achieved. Nephrologists performed 43.9% of native renal biopsies (n=156) and radiologists performed 56.1% (n=199). The mean number of glomeruli obtained by nephrologists was 17.16+/-10.31. The mean number of glomeruli obtained by radiologists was 18.38+/-10.55. T-test demonstrated no statistically significant difference between specialties comparatively (p-value 0.277). Native renal biopsies are required to obtain at least 8 glomeruli to be diagnostic as per internationally agreed criteria. Nephrologists met these criteria in 88.5% of native renal biopsies (n=138) and radiologists met this criteria in 89.5% (n=178). T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.663 and 0.922, respectively). Biopsies performed by nephrologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 91.0% (n=142) of sampling. Biopsies performed by radiologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 92.4% (n=184) of sampling. T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.625 and 0.889, respectively). This project demonstrates that at University Hospital Crosshouse, there is no statistical difference between radiologists and nephrologists in terms of glomeruli acquisition or samples achieving a histological diagnosis. Given the non-inferiority between specialties demonstrated by previous studies and this project, this evidence could support the restructuring of services to allow more renal biopsies to be performed by renal services and allow reallocation of radiology department resources.

Keywords: biopsy, medical imaging, nephrology, radiology

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Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

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Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability

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Authors: Mahmood Naghizadeh, Maryam Memarian, Hourshad Irvash

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Following the rise in the world population and the upward growth of urbanization, the design, planning, and management of the site scenery for the purpose of presentation and expansion of sustainable site scenery has turned to be the greatest concern to experts. Since the fundamental principles of the site scenery change more and less haphazardly over time, sustainable site scenery can be viewed as an ideal goal because both sustainability and dynamism come into view in urban site scenery and it wouldn’t be designed according to a set of pre-determined principles. Sustainable site scenery, as the ongoing interaction between idealism and pragmatism with sustainability factors, is a dynamic phenomenon created by bringing cultural, historical, social and natural scenery together. Such an interaction is not to subdue other factors but to reinforce the aforementioned factors. The sustainable site scenery is a persistently occurring event not only has attenuated over time but has gained strength. The sustainability of a site scenery or an event over time depends on its site identity which grows out of its continuous association with the past. The sustainability of a site scene or an event in a time frame intertwined with the identity of the place from past to present. This past history supports the present and future of the scene. The result of such a supportive role is the sustainability of site scenery. Isfahan Naqsh-e-Jahan Square is one of the most outstanding squares in the world and the best embodiment of Iranian site scenery architecture. This square is an arena that brings people together and a dynamic city center comprising various urban and religious complexes, spaces and facilities and is considered as one of the most favorable traditional urban space of Iran. Such a place can illustrate many factors related to sustainable site scenery. One the other hand, there are still no specific principles concerning sustainability in the architecture of site scenery. Meanwhile, sustainability is recognized as a rather modern view in architecture. The purpose of this research is to identify factors involved in sustainability in general and to examine their effects on site scenery architecture in particular. Finally, these factors will be studied with taking Naqsh-e-Jahan Square into account. This research adopts an analytic-descriptive approach that has benefited from the review of literature available in library studies and the documents related to sustainability and site scenery architecture. The statistical population used for the purpose of this research includes square constructed during the Safavid dynasty and Naqsh-e-Jahan Square was picked out as the case study. The purpose of this paper is to come up with a rough definition of sustainable site scenery and demonstrate this concept by analyzing it and recognizing the social, economic and ecological aspects of this project.

Keywords: Naqsh-e-Jahan Square, site scenery architecture, sustainability, sustainable site scenery

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Authors: Huixia Shi, Can Hu, Jun Zhu, Hongling Guo, Haiyan Li, Hongyan Du

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The identification of human body fluids during forensic investigations is a critical step to determine key details, and present strong evidence to testify criminal in a case. With the popularity of DNA and improved detection technology, the potential question must be revolved that whether the suspect’s DNA derived from saliva or semen, menstrual or peripheral blood, how to identify the red substance or aged blood traces on the spot is blood; How to determine who contribute the right one in mixed stains. In recent years, molecular approaches have been developing increasingly on mRNA, miRNA, DNA methylation and microbial markers, but appear expensive, time-consuming, and destructive disadvantages. Physicochemical methods are utilized frequently such us scanning electron microscopy/energy spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence and so on, but results only showing one or two characteristics of body fluid itself and that out of working in unknown or mixed body fluid stains. This paper focuses on using chemistry methods Raman spectroscopy and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry to discriminate species of peripheral blood, menstrual blood, semen, saliva, vaginal secretions, urine or sweat. Firstly, non-destructive, confirmatory, convenient and fast Raman spectroscopy method combined with more accurate matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry method can totally distinguish one from other body fluids. Secondly, 11 spectral signatures and specific metabolic molecules have been obtained by analysis results after 70 samples detected. Thirdly, Raman results showed peripheral and menstrual blood, saliva and vaginal have highly similar spectroscopic features. Advanced statistical analysis of the multiple Raman spectra must be requested to classify one to another. On the other hand, it seems that the lactic acid can differentiate peripheral and menstrual blood detected by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, but that is not a specific metabolic molecule, more sensitivity ones will be analyzed in a forward study. These results demonstrate the great potential of the developed chemistry methods for forensic applications, although more work is needed for method validation.

Keywords: body fluids, identification, Raman spectroscopy, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry

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Authors: Ana Jelenkovic, Nevena Kardum, Vuk Stevanovic, Ivana Šarac, Kristina Dmitrovic, Stevan Stevanovic, Maria Glibetic

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Physical activity is well known for its beneficial health implications, however, excess oxygen consumption may impair oxidative status of the cell and affect membrane fatty acid (FA) composition. Polyphenols are well-established antioxidants, which can incorporate in cell membranes and protect them from oxidation. Therefore, our aim was to investigate how an 8-week aerobic training alters erythrocyte FA composition and activities of enzymes (superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase and catalase), and to what extent polyphenol-rich Aronia juice (AJ) counteracts these potential alterations. We included 28 healthy women aged 19-29, with mean body mass index (BMI) of 21.2±2.7kg/m² and assigned them into three groups. The first group performed 1 hour of aerobic training three times per week (T); the second group trained in the same way and received 100 ml/day AJ as a part of their regular diet (TAJ), while the third group was the control one (C). Study analyses were performed at baseline and at the end of the intervention and included: anthropometric and biochemical measurements, determination of erythrocyte FA profile with gas-liquid chromatography and determination of enzymes’ activity with spectrophotometry. Statistical analyses were carried out with SPSS 20.0, with p < 0.05 considered as significant. The paired t-test revealed a significant decrease in the saturated FA content and in ω6/ω3 ratio in TAJ group. Furthermore, ω3 and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) content increased, as well as the percentage of polyunsaturated FA and unsaturation index, which clearly pointed out that AJ supplementation with aerobic training protected cellular membranes from lipid peroxidation. No significant changes were observed in the two other groups. The between-group comparisons (ANCOVA) confirmed the synergistic effect of AJ supplementation and physical activity: DHA and ω3 contents were much higher, while ω6/ω3 ratio was significantly lower in the TAJ group compared with C. We also found that after the 8 weeks period, participants in TAJ group had a higher unsaturation index and lower saturated FA concentration than subjects from T group, suggesting that AJ polyphenols might be involved in that particular pathway. We found no significant changes in enzymes’ activities apart from a significantly higher superoxide dismutase activity in T group compared with the other two groups. Our results imply that supplementation with polyphenol-rich AJ may prevent membrane lipids from peroxidation in healthy subjects with regular aerobic activity.

Keywords: Aronia juice, aerobic training, fatty acids, oxidative status

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Lake Aswan is one of the largest man-made reservoirs in the world. The reservoir began to fill in 1964 and the level rose gradually, with annual irrigation cycles, until it reached a maximum water level of 181.5 m in November 1999, with a capacity of 160 km3. The filling of such large reservoir changes the stress system either through increasing vertical compressional stress by loading and/or increased pore pressure through the decrease of the effective normal stress. The resulted effect on fault zones changes stability depending strongly on the orientation of pre-existing stress and geometry of the reservoir/fault system. The main earthquake occurred on November 14, 1981, with magnitude 5.5. This event occurred after 17 years of the reservoir began to fill, along the active part of the Kalabsha fault and located not far from the High Dam. Numerous of small earthquakes follow this earthquake and continue till now. For this reason, 13 seismograph stations (radio-telemetry network short-period seismometers) were installed around the northern part of Lake Aswan. The main purpose of the network is to monitor the earthquake activity continuously within Aswan region. The data described here are obtained from the continuous record of earthquake activity and lake-water level variation through the period from 1982 to 2015. The seismicity is concentrated in the Kalabsha area, where there is an intersection of the easterly trending Kalabsha fault with the northerly trending faults. The earthquake foci are distributed in two seismic zones, shallow and deep in the crust. Shallow events have focal depths of less than 12 km while deep events extend from 12 to 28 km. Correlation between the seismicity and the water level variation in the lake provides great suggestion to distinguish the micro-earthquakes, particularly, those in shallow seismic zone in the reservoir–triggered seismicity category. The water loading is one factor from several factors, as an activating medium in triggering earthquakes. The common factors for all cases of induced seismicity seem to be the presence of specific geological conditions, the tectonic setting and water loading. The role of the water loading is as a supplementary source of earthquake events. So, the earthquake activity in the area originated tectonically (ML ≥ 4) and the water factor works as an activating medium in triggering small earthquakes (ML ≤ 3). Study of the inducing seismicity from the water level variation in Aswan Lake is of great importance and play great roles necessity for the safety of the High Dam body and its economic resources.

Keywords: Aswan lake, Aswan seismic network, seismicity, water level variation

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Authors: Roman Khanferyan, Levon Gevorkyan, Ivan Radysh

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Skin barrier dysfunction induces multiple inflammatory skin diseases. Epidemiological studies clearly support the link between most dermatological pathologies, immune disorders and metabolic disorders. Among them most common are psoriasis (PS) and Atopic dermatitis (AD). Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory skin disease that affects 1.5 to 3.0% of the world's population. Comorbid metabolic disorders play an important role in the progression of PS and AD, as well. It is well known that PS, AD and overweight/obesity are associated with common pathophysiological mechanisms of mild chronic inflammation. The goal of the study was to study the immune disturbances in patients with PS, AD and comorbid metabolic disorders. To study the prevalence of comorbidity of PS and AD (data from 1406 patient’s histories of diseases) were analyzed. The severity of the disease is assessed using the PASI index (Psoriasis Area and Severity Index). 59 patients with psoriasis of different localizations of lesions and severity, as well as with different body mass index (BMI), were examined. The determination of the concentration of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-8, IFNγ, IL-17, L-18 and TNFa) and chemokines (RANTES, IP-10, MCP-1 and Eotaxin) in sera and supernatants of 48h-cultivated peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) of psoriasis patients and healthy volunteers (36 adults) have been carried out by multiplex assay (Luminex Corporation, USA). It has been demonstrated that 42% of PS patients had comorbidity with different types of atopies. The most common was bronchial asthma and allergic rhinitis. At the same time, the prevalence of AD in PS patients was determined in 8.7% of patients. It has been shown that serum levels of all studied cytokines (IL-6, IL-8, IFNγ, IL-17, L-18 and TNF) in most of the studied patients were higher in PS patients than in those with AD and healthy controls (p<0.05). An in vitro synthesis of the IL-6 and IFNγ by PBMC demonstrated similar results to those determined in blood sera. There was a high correlation between BMI, immune mediators and the concentrations of adipokines and chemokines (p<0.05). The concentrations of Leptin and Resistin in obese psoriatic patients were greater by 28.6% and 17%, respectively, compared to non-obese psoriatic patients. In obese patients with psoriasis the serum levels of adiponectin were decreased up to 1.3-fold. The mean serum RANTES, IP-10, MCP-1, EOTAXIN levels in obese psoriatic patients were decreased by up to 13.1%, 21.9%, 40.4% and 28.2%, respectively. Similar results have been demonstrated in AD patients with comorbid overweight and obesity. Thus, the study demonstrated the important role of cytokines and chemokines dysregulation in inflammatory skin diseases, especially in patients with comorbid obesity and overweight. Metabolic disorders promote the severity of PS and AD, highly increase immune dysregulation, and synthesis of adipokines, which correlates with the production of proinflammatory immune mediators in comorbid obesity and overweight.

Keywords: psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, pro-inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, comorbid obesity

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