Search results for: traffic speed prediction

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: B. Karabuluter, O. Karaduman

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Connected-Vehicles consists of intelligent vehicles, each of which can communicate with each other. Smart Cities are the most prominent application area of intelligent vehicles that can communicate with each other. The most important goal that is desired to be realized in Smart Cities planned for facilitating people's lives is to make transportation more comfortable and safe with intelligent/autonomous/driverless vehicles communicating with each other. In order to ensure these, the city must have communication infrastructure in the first place, and the vehicles must have the features to communicate with this infrastructure and with each other. In this context, intelligent transport studies to solve all transportation and traffic problems in classical cities continue to increase rapidly. In this study, current connected-vehicle applications developed for smart cities are considered in terms of communication techniques, vehicular networking, IoT, urban transportation implementations, intelligent traffic management, road safety, self driving. Taxonomies and assessments performed in the work show the trend of studies in inter-vehicle communication systems in smart cities and they are contributing to by ensuring that the requirements in this area are revealed.

Keywords: smart city, connected vehicles, infrastructures, VANET, wireless communication, intelligent traffic management

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Authors: RuiJin Zhang, HengJiang Cai, JinSong Gui

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It takes Patinopecten yessoensis larvae more than 20 days from spawning to settlement. Due to the natural environmental factors such as current, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae are transported to a distance more than hundreds of kilometers, leading to a high instability of their spatial and temporal distribution and great difficulties in the natural spat collection. Therefore predicting the distribution is of great significance to improve the operating efficiency of the collecting. Hydrodynamic model of Northern China Yellow Sea was established and the motions equations of physical oceanography and verified by the tidal harmonic constants and the measured data velocities of Dalian Bay. According to the passivity drift characteristics of the larvae, combined with the hydrodynamic model and the particle tracking model, the spatial and temporal distribution prediction model was established and the spatial and temporal distribution of the larvae under the influence of flow and wind were simulated. It can be concluded from the model results: ocean currents have greatest impacts on the passive drift path and diffusion of Patinopecten yessoensis larvae; the impact of wind is also important, which changed the direction and speed of the drift. Patinopecten yessoensis larvae were generated in the sea along Zhangzi Island and Guanglu-Dachangshan Island, but after two months, with the impact of wind and currents, the larvae appeared in the west of Dalian and the southern of Lvshun, and even in Bohai Bay. The model results are consistent with the relevant literature on qualitative analysis, and this conclusion explains where the larvae come from in the perspective of numerical simulation.

Keywords: numerical simulation, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae, predicting model, spatial and temporal distribution

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Authors: Rosmini Yanti, Safira Aviolita, Marsetio

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Indonesia has several straits that are very important as a shipping lane, including the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait, which are the part of the Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lane (IASL). An increase in traffic on the Marine Archipelago makes the task of monitoring sea routes increasingly difficult. Indonesia has proposed the establishment of a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) in the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait and the country now has the right to be able to conceptualize the TSS as well as the obligation to regulate it. Indonesia has the right to maintain national safety and sovereignty. In setting the TSS, Indonesia needs to issue national regulations that are in accordance with international law and the general provisions of the IMO (International Maritime Organization) can then be used as guidelines for maritime safety and security in the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait. The research method used is a qualitative method with the concept of linguistic and visual data collection. The source of the data is the analysis of documents and regulations. The results show that the determination of TSS was justified by International Law, in accordance with article 22, article 41, and article 53 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982. The determination of TSS by the Indonesian government would be in accordance with COLREG (International Convention on Preventing Collisions at Sea) 10, which has been designed to follow IASL. Thus, TSS can provide a function as a safety and monitoring medium to minimize ship accidents or collisions, including the warship and aircraft of other countries that cross the IASL.

Keywords: archipelago state, maritime law, maritime security, traffic separation scheme

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Authors: Feixiang Zhao, Shuangcheng Jia, Qian Li

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High-precision measurement of the target’s position and size is one of the hotspots in the field of vision inspection. This paper proposes a three-dimensional object positioning and measurement method using a monocular camera and GPS, namely the Distance Area Number-New Minimize Projection Error (DAN-NMPE). Our algorithm contains two parts: DAN and NMPE; specifically, DAN is a picture sequence algorithm, NMPE is a relatively positive optimization algorithm, which greatly improves the measurement accuracy of the target’s position and size. Comprehensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our proposed method on a self-made traffic sign dataset. The results show that with the laser point cloud as the ground truth, the size and position errors of the traffic sign measured by this method are ± 5% and 0.48 ± 0.3m, respectively. In addition, we also compared it with the current mainstream method, which uses a monocular camera to locate and measure traffic signs. DAN-NMPE attains significant improvements compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, which improves the measurement accuracy of size and position by 50% and 15.8%, respectively.

Keywords: monocular camera, GPS, positioning, measurement

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Authors: Jairo Alejandro Fernandez Ortega

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Objective: Regarding effects of training velocity on strength in the functional condition of older adults controversy exists. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a twelve-week strength training program (PE) performed at high speed (GAV) versus a traditionally executed program (GBV), on functional performance, maximum strength and muscle power in a group of older adult women. Methodology: 86 women aged between 60-81 years participated voluntarily in the study and were assigned randomly to the GAV (three series at 40% 1RM at maximum speed, with maximum losses of 10% speed) or to the GBV (three series with three sets at 70% of 1RM). Both groups performed three weekly trainings. The maximum strength of upper and lower limbs (1RM), prehensile strength, walking speed, maximum power, mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and functional performance (senior fitness test) were evaluated before and after the PE. Results: Significant improvements were observed (p < 0.05) in all the tests in the two groups after the twelve weeks of training. However, the results of GAV were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of the GBV, in the tests of agility and dynamic equilibrium, stationary walking, sitting and standing, walking speed over 4 and 6 meters, MPV and peak power. In the tests of maximum strength and prehensile force, the differences were not significant. Conclusion: Strength training performed at high speeds seems to have a better effect on functional performance and muscle power than strength training performed at low speed.

Keywords: power training, resistance exercise, aging, strength, physical performance, high-velocity, resistance training

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Authors: Tim Steinhaus, Christian Beidl

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Urban air quality and climate protection are two major challenges for future mobility systems. Despite the steady reduction of pollutant emissions from vehicles over past decades, local immission load within cities partially still reaches heights, which are considered hazardous to human health. Although traffic-related emissions account for a major part of the overall urban pollution, modeling the exact interaction remains challenging. In this paper, a novel approach for the determination of the emission-immission interaction on the basis of neural network modeling for traffic induced NO2-immission load within a near-traffic hot-spot scenario is presented. In a detailed sensitivity analysis, the significance of relevant influencing variables on the prevailing NO2 concentration is initially analyzed. Based on this, the generation process of the model is described, in which not only environmental influences but also the vehicle fleet composition including its associated segment- and certification-specific real driving emission factors are derived and used as input quantities. The validity of this approach, which has been presented in the past, is re-examined in this paper using updated data on vehicle emissions and recent immission measurement data. Within the framework of a final scenario analysis, the future development of the immission load is forecast for different developments in the vehicle fleet composition. It is shown that immission levels of less than half of today’s yearly average limit values are technically feasible in hot-spot situations.

Keywords: air quality, emission, emission-immission-interaction, immission, NO2, zero impact

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Authors: A. Mohamed, A. El-Hamalawi, M. Frost, A. Connell

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Often design standards do not provide guidance or formulae for the calculation of stresses on buried pipelines caused by external loads. Frequently engineers rely on other methods and published sources of information to calculate such imposed stresses and a variety of methods can be used. This paper reviews three current approaches to soil pipeline interaction modelling to predict stresses on buried pipelines subjected to soil overburden and traffic loading. The traditional approach to use empirical stress formulas to calculate circumferential bending stresses on pipelines. The alternative approaches considered are the use of a finite element package to compute an estimate of circumferential bending stress and a proprietary stress analysis system (SURFLOAD) to estimate the circumferential bending stress. The results from analysis using the methods are presented and compared to experimental results in terms of predicted and measured circumferential stresses. This study shows that the approach used to assess externally generated stress is important and can lead to an over-conservative analysis. Using FE analysis either through SURFLOAD or a general FE package to predict circumferential stress is the most accurate way to undertake stress analysis due to traffic and soil loads. Although conservative, classical empirical methods will continue to be applied to the analysis of buried pipelines, an opportunity exists, therefore, in many circumstances, to use applied numerical techniques, made possible by advances in finite element analysis.

Keywords: buried pipelines, circumferential bending stress, finite element analysis, soil overburden, soil pipeline interaction analysis (SPIA), traffic loadings

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Authors: Lopamudra Bakshi Basu

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Transport is one of the most important characteristic features of Indian cities. The physical and societal requirements determine the selection of a particular transport system along with the uniqueness of road networks. Kolkata has a mixed traffic of which Paratransit system plays a crucial role. It is an indispensable transport system in Kolkata mainly because of its size and service flexibility which has led to a unique network character. The paratransit system, mainly the autorickshaws, is the most favoured mode of transport in the city. Its fast movement and comfortability make it a vital transport system of the city. Since the inception of the autorickshaws in Kolkata in 1981, this mode has gained popularity and presently serves nearly 80 to 90 percent of the total passenger trips. This employment generating mode of transport has increased its number rapidly affecting the city’s traffic. Minimal check on their growth by the authority has led to traffic snarls along many streets of Kolkata. Indiscipline behavior, violation of traffic rules and rash driving make situations even worse. The rise in the number and increasing popularity of the autorickshaws make it an interesting study area. Autorickshaws as a paratransit mode play its role as a leader or a follower. However, it is informal in its planning and operations, which makes it a problem area for the city. The entire research work deals with the growth and expansion of the number of vehicles and the routes within the city. The development of transport system has been interesting in the city, which has been studied. The growth of the paratransit modes in the city has been rapid. The network pattern of the paratransit mode within Kolkata has been analysed.

Keywords: growth, informal, network characteristics, paratransit, service flexibility

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Authors: Mohammad Vahedi Torshizi

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In this investigation, at first, bending stress, contact stress, Safety factor of bending and Safety factor of contact between sun gear and planet gear tooth was determined using mathematical equations. Also, The amount of Sun Revolution in, Speed carrier, power Transmitted of the sun, sun torque, sun peripheral speed, Enter the tangential force gears, was calculated using mathematical equations. According to the obtained results, maximum of bending stress and contact stress occurred in three plantary and low status of four plantary. Also, maximum of Speed carrier, sun peripheral speed, Safety factor of bending and Safety factor of contact obtained in four plantary and maximum of power Transmitted of the sun, Enter the tangential force gears, bending stress and contact stress was in three pantry and factors And other factors were equal in the two planets.

Keywords: bending stress, contact stress, plantary, mathematical equations

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Authors: Sumit Roy

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A clear understanding of pedestrian behaviour at road crossing at intersections is needed for providing necessary infrastructure and also for enhancing pedestrian safety at any intersection. Pedestrian road crossing behaviour is studied at Motijheel and Kakrail intersections where Motijheel intersection is a controlled roundabout, and Kakrail intersection is a signalized intersection. Around 60 people at each intersection were interviewed for a questionnaire survey and video recording at different time of a day was done for observation at each intersection. In case of Motijeel intersection, we got pedestrian road crossings were much higher than Kakrail intersection. It is because the number of workplaces here is higher than Kakrail. From questionnaire survey, it is found that 80% of pedestrians crosses at intersection to avail buses and their loading and unloading locations are at intersection, whereas at Kakrail intersection only 25% pedestrian crosses the road for buses as buses do not slow down here. At Motijheel intersection 25 to 40% of pedestrians choose to jump over the barricade for crossing instead of using overbridge for saving time and labour. On the other hand, the pedestrians using overbridge told that they use overbridge for safety. Moreover, pedestrian crosses at the same pace for both red and green interval with vehicle movement in the range of 12.5 to 14.5 km/h and gaps between vehicle were more than 4 m. Here pedestrian crossing speed varies from 3.5 to 7.2 km/h. In Kakrail intersection the road crossing situation can be classified into 4 categories. In case of red time, pedestrians do not wait to cross the road, and crossing speed varies from 3.5 to 7.2 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 5.4 to 7.4 km/h, and gaps between vehicle vary from 1.5 to 2 m, most of the pedestrians initially choose to wait and try to cross the road in group with crossing speed 2.7 to 3.5 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 10.8 to 18 km/h, and gaps between vehicles varies from 2 to 3 m most of the people waits and cross the road in group with crossing speed 3.5 to 5.4 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 25.2 to 32.4 km/h and gaps between vehicles vary from 4 to 6 m most of the pedestrians choose to wait until red time. In Kakrail intersection 87% of people said that they cross the road with risk and 60% of pedestrians told that it is risky to get on and off the bus at this intersection. Planned location of loading and unloading area for buses can improve the pedestrian road crossing behaviour at intersections.

Keywords: crossing speed, pedestrian behaviour, road crossing, use of overbridge

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: Amir Mahyar Khorasani, Ian Gibson, Moshe Goldberg, Mohammad Masoud Movahedi, Guy Littlefair

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One of the important factors in manufacturing processes especially machining operations is surface quality. Improving this parameter results in improving fatigue strength, corrosion resistance, creep life and surface friction. The reliability and clearance of removable joints such as thread and nuts are highly related to the surface roughness. In this work, the effect of different cutting parameters such as cutting fluid pressure, feed rate and cutting speed on the surface quality of the crest of thread in the high-speed milling of Brass C3600 have been determined. Two popular neural networks containing MLP and RBF coupling with Taguchi L32 have been used to model surface roughness which was shown to be highly adept for such tasks. The contribution of this work is modelling surface roughness on the crest of the thread by using precise profilometer with nanoscale resolution. Experimental tests have been carried out for validation and approved suitable accuracy of the proposed model. Also analysing the interaction of parameters two by two showed that the most effective cutting parameter on the surface value is feed rate followed by cutting speed and cutting fluid pressure.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, cutting conditions, high-speed machining, surface roughness, thread milling

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Authors: Debasis Mondal, Chandan Datta, S. K. Sazim

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Quantum coherence is a key resource like entanglement and discord in quantum information theory. Wigner- Yanase skew information, which was shown to be the quantum part of the uncertainty, has recently been projected as an observable measure of quantum coherence. On the other hand, the quantum speed limit has been established as an important notion for developing the ultra-speed quantum computer and communication channel. Here, we show that both of these quantities are related. Thus, cast coherence as a resource to control the speed of quantum communication. In this work, we address three basic and fundamental questions. There have been rigorous attempts to achieve more and tighter evolution time bounds and to generalize them for mixed states. However, we are yet to know (i) what is the ultimate limit of quantum speed? (ii) Can we measure this speed of quantum evolution in the interferometry by measuring a physically realizable quantity? Most of the bounds in the literature are either not measurable in the interference experiments or not tight enough. As a result, cannot be effectively used in the experiments on quantum metrology, quantum thermodynamics, and quantum communication and especially in Unruh effect detection et cetera, where a small fluctuation in a parameter is needed to be detected. Therefore, a search for the tightest yet experimentally realisable bound is a need of the hour. It will be much more interesting if one can relate various properties of the states or operations, such as coherence, asymmetry, dimension, quantum correlations et cetera and QSL. Although, these understandings may help us to control and manipulate the speed of communication, apart from the particular cases like the Josephson junction and multipartite scenario, there has been a little advancement in this direction. Therefore, the third question we ask: (iii) Can we relate such quantities with QSL? In this paper, we address these fundamental questions and show that quantum coherence or asymmetry plays an important role in setting the QSL. An important question in the study of quantum speed limit may be how it behaves under classical mixing and partial elimination of states. This is because this may help us to choose properly a state or evolution operator to control the speed limit. In this paper, we try to address this question and show that the product of the time bound of the evolution and the quantum part of the uncertainty in energy or quantum coherence or asymmetry of the state with respect to the evolution operator decreases under classical mixing and partial elimination of states.

Keywords: completely positive trace preserving maps, quantum coherence, quantum speed limit, Wigner-Yanase Skew information

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Authors: Prabhakar Sathujoda

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Vibration analysis of a misaligned rotor coupling bearing system has been carried out while decelerating through its critical speed. The finite element method (FEM) is used to model the rotor system and simulate flexural vibrations. A flexible coupling with a frictionless joint is considered in the present work. The continuous wavelet transform is used to extract the misalignment features from the simulated time response. Subcritical speeds at one-half, one-third, and one-fourth the critical speed have appeared in the wavelet transformed vibration response of a misaligned rotor coupling bearing system. These features are also verified through a parametric study.

Keywords: Continuous Wavelet Transform, Flexible Coupling, Rotor System, Sub Critical Speed

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Authors: Bernard Polednik, Adam Piotrowicz, Lukasz Guz, Marzenna Dudzinska

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Transportation is considered to be responsible for increased exposure of road users – i.e., drivers, car passengers, and pedestrians as well as inhabitants of houses located near roads - to pollutants emitted from vehicles. Accurate estimates are, however, difficult as exposure depends on many factors such as traffic intensity or type of fuel as well as the topography and the built-up area around the individual routes. The season and weather conditions are also of importance. In the case of inhabitants of houses located near roads, their exposure depends on the distance from the road, window tightness and other factors that decrease pollutant infiltration. This work reports the variations of particle concentrations along a selected road in Lublin, Poland. Their impact on the exposure for road users as well as for inhabitants of houses located near the road is also presented. Mobile and fixed-site measurements were carried out in peak (around 8 a.m. and 4 p.m.) and off-peak (12 a.m., 4 a.m., and 12 p.m.) traffic times in all 4 seasons. Fixed-site measurements were performed in 12 measurement points along the route. The number and mass concentration of particles was determined with the use of P-Trak model 8525, OPS 3330, DustTrak DRX model 8533 (TSI Inc. USA) and Grimm Aerosol Spectrometer 1.109 with Nano Sizer 1.321 (Grimm Aerosol Germany). The obtained results indicated that the highest concentrations of traffic-related pollution were measured near 4-way traffic intersections during peak hours in the autumn and winter. The highest average number concentration of ultrafine particles (PN0.1), and mass concentration of fine particles (PM2.5) in fixed-site measurements were obtained in the autumn and amounted to 23.6 ± 9.2×10³ pt/cm³ and 135.1 ± 11.3 µg/m³, respectively. The highest average number concentration of submicrometer particles (PN1) was measured in the winter and amounted to 68 ± 26.8×10³ pt/cm³. The estimated doses of particles deposited in the commuters’ and pedestrians’ lungs within an hour near 4-way TIs in peak hours in the summer amounted to 4.3 ± 3.3×10⁹ pt/h (PN0.1) and 2.9 ± 1.4 µg/h (PM2.5) and 3.9 ± 1.1×10⁹ pt/h (PN0.1) or 2.5 ± 0.4 µg/h (PM2.5), respectively. While estimating the doses inhaled by the inhabitants of premises located near the road one should take into account different fractional penetration of particles from outdoors to indoors. Such doses assessed for the autumn and winter are up to twice as high as the doses inhaled by commuters and pedestrians in the summer. In the winter traffic-related ultrafine particles account for over 70% of all ultrafine particles deposited in the pedestrians’ lungs. The share of traffic-related PM10 particles was estimated at approximately 33.5%. Concluding, the results of the particle concentration measurements along a road in Lublin indicated that the concentration is mainly affected by the traffic intensity and weather conditions. Further detailed research should focus on how the season and the metrological conditions affect concentration levels of traffic-related pollutants and the exposure of commuters and pedestrians as well as the inhabitants of houses located near traffic routes.

Keywords: air quality, deposition dose, health effects, vehicle emissions

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

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Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Tanu Aneja, Harsha Malaviya

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Capturing pose information in cricket shots poses several challenges, such as low-resolution videos, noisy data, and joint occlusions caused by the nature of the shots. In response to these challenges, we propose a CondDGConv-based framework specifically for cricket shot prediction. By analyzing the spatial-temporal relationships in batsman shot sequences from an annotated 2D cricket dataset, our model achieves a 97% accuracy in predicting shot types. This performance is made possible by conditioning the graph network on batsman 2D poses, allowing for precise prediction of shot outcomes based on pose dynamics. Our approach highlights the potential for enhancing shot prediction in cricket analytics, offering a robust solution for overcoming pose-related challenges in sports analysis.

Keywords: action recognition, cricket. sports video analytics, computer vision, graph convolutional networks

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Zhijie Li, Wenhui Peng, Zelong Yuan, Jianchun Wang

Abstract:

Turbulence is a complex phenomenon that plays a crucial role in various fields, such as engineering, atmospheric science, and fluid dynamics. Predicting and understanding its behavior over long time scales have been challenging tasks. Traditional methods, such as large-eddy simulation (LES), have provided valuable insights but are computationally expensive. In the past few years, machine learning methods have experienced rapid development, leading to significant improvements in computational speed. However, ensuring stable and accurate long-term predictions remains a challenging task for these methods. In this study, we introduce the implicit U-net enhanced Fourier neural operator (IU-FNO) as a solution for stable and efficient long-term predictions of the nonlinear dynamics in three-dimensional (3D) turbulence. The IU-FNO model combines implicit re-current Fourier layers to deepen the network and incorporates the U-Net architecture to accurately capture small-scale flow structures. We evaluate the performance of the IU-FNO model through extensive large-eddy simulations of three types of 3D turbulence: forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT), temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer, and decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The results demonstrate that the IU-FNO model outperforms other FNO-based models, including vanilla FNO, implicit FNO (IFNO), and U-net enhanced FNO (U-FNO), as well as the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), in predicting various turbulence statistics. Specifically, the IU-FNO model exhibits improved accuracy in predicting the velocity spectrum, probability density functions (PDFs) of vorticity and velocity increments, and instantaneous spatial structures of the flow field. Furthermore, the IU-FNO model addresses the stability issues encountered in long-term predictions, which were limitations of previous FNO models. In addition to its superior performance, the IU-FNO model offers faster computational speed compared to traditional large-eddy simulations using the DSM model. It also demonstrates generalization capabilities to higher Taylor-Reynolds numbers and unseen flow regimes, such as decaying turbulence. Overall, the IU-FNO model presents a promising approach for long-term dynamics prediction in 3D turbulence, providing improved accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.

Keywords: data-driven, Fourier neural operator, large eddy simulation, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Nalluri Lakshmi Ramu, C. Venkat Nihit, Narayana Kumar, Dillep

Abstract:

Masonry bridges are the iconic heritage transportation infrastructure throughout the world. Continuous increase in traffic loads and speed have kept engineers in dilemma about their structural performance and capacity. Henceforth, research community has an urgent need to propose an effective methodology and validate on real-time bridges. The presented research aims to assess the structural health of an Eighty-year-old masonry railway bridge in India using wireless accelerometer sensors. The bridge consists of 44 spans with length of 24.2 m each and individual pier is 13 m tall laid on well foundation. To calculate the dynamic characteristic properties of the bridge, ambient vibrations were recorded from the moving traffic at various speeds and the same are compared with the developed three-dimensional numerical model using finite element-based software. The conclusions about the weaker or deteriorated piers are drawn from the comparison of frequencies obtained from the experimental tests conducted on alternative spans. Masonry is a heterogeneous anisotropic material made up of incoherent materials (such as bricks, stones, and blocks). It is most likely the earliest largely used construction material. Masonry bridges, which were typically constructed of brick and stone, are still a key feature of the world's highway and railway networks. There are 1,47,523 railway bridges across India and about 15% of these bridges are built by masonry, which are around 80 to 100 year old. The cultural significance of masonry bridges cannot be overstated. These bridges are considered to be complicated due to the presence of arches, spandrel walls, piers, foundations, and soils. Due to traffic loads and vibrations, wind, rain, frost attack, high/low temperature cycles, moisture, earthquakes, river overflows, floods, scour, and soil under their foundations may cause material deterioration, opening of joints and ring separation in arch barrels, cracks in piers, loss of brick-stones and mortar joints, distortion of the arch profile. Few NDT tests like Flat jack Tests are being employed to access the homogeneity, durability of masonry structure, however there are many drawbacks because of the test. A modern approach of structural health assessment of masonry structures by vibration analysis, frequencies and stiffness properties is being explored in this paper.

Keywords: masonry bridges, condition assessment, wireless sensors, numerical analysis modal frequencies

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Authors: I. Paeglite, A. Paeglitis

Abstract:

The paper presents a study of dynamic effects obtained from the dynamic load testing of the city highway bridges in Latvia carried out from 2005 to 2012. 9 pre-stressed concrete bridges and 4 composite bridges were considered. 11 of 13 bridges were designed according to the Eurocodes but two according to the previous structural codes used in Latvia (SNIP 2.05.03-84). The dynamic properties of the bridges were obtained by heavy vehicles passing the bridge roadway with different driving speeds and with or without even pavement. The obtained values of the Dynamic amplification factor (DAF) and bridge natural frequency were analyzed and compared to the values of built-in traffic load models provided in Eurocode 1. The actual DAF values for even bridge deck in the most cases are smaller than the value adopted in Eurocode 1. Vehicle speed for uneven pavements significantly influence Dynamic amplification factor values.

Keywords: bridge, dynamic effects, load testing, dynamic amplification factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Saman Ghaffarian, Ilgin Gökaşar

Abstract:

This paper presents a new automatic vehicle detection method from very high resolution aerial images to measure traffic density. The proposed method starts by extracting road regions from image using road vector data. Then, the road image is divided into equal sections considering resolution of the images. Gradient vectors of the road image are computed from edge map of the corresponding image. Gradient vectors on the each boundary of the sections are divided where the gradient vectors significantly change their directions. Finally, number of vehicles in each section is carried out by calculating the standard deviation of the gradient vectors in each group and accepting the group as vehicle that has standard deviation above predefined threshold value. The proposed method was tested in four very high resolution aerial images acquired from Istanbul, Turkey which illustrate roads and vehicles with diverse characteristics. The results show the reliability of the proposed method in detecting vehicles by producing 86% overall F1 accuracy value.

Keywords: aerial images, intelligent transportation systems, traffic density measurement, vehicle detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

Abstract:

Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: Imen Bouazzi

Abstract:

The IEEE-802.15.4 standard utilizes the CSMA-CA mechanism to control nodes access to the shared wireless communication medium. It is becoming the popular choice for various applications of surveillance and control used in wireless sensor network (WSN). The benefit of this standard is evaluated regarding of the packet loss probability who depends on the configuration of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC parameters and the traffic load. Our exigency is to evaluate the effects of various configurable MAC parameters on the performance of beaconless IEEE 802.15.4 networks under different traffic loads, static values of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC parameters (macMinBE, macMaxCSMABackoffs, and macMaxFrame Retries) will be evaluated. To performance analysis, we use ns-2[2] network simulator.

Keywords: WSN, packet loss, CSMA/CA, IEEE-802.15.4

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 111