Search results for: strength prediction models

Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

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In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection

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Authors: Vivi Anggraini, Afshin Asadi, Bujang B. K. Huat

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Earth structures constructed of marine clay soils have tendency to crack. In order to improve the flexural strength and brittleness, a technique of mixing short fibers is introduced to the soil lime mixture. Coir fiber was used in this study as reinforcing elements. An experimental investigation consisting primarily of flexural tensile tests was conducted to examine the influence of coir fibers on the flexural behaviour of the reinforced soils. The test results demonstrated that the coir fibers were effective in improving the flexural strength and young’s modulus of all soils were examined and ductility after peak strength for reinforced marine clay soil was treated by lime. 5% lime treated soil and 1% coir fiber reinforced soil specimen’s demonstrated good strength and durability when submerged in water and retained 45% of their air-cured strengths.

Keywords: flexural strength, durabilty, lime, coir fibers, bending force, ductility

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Authors: Gabriele Borg, Alexei Debono, Charlie Abela

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There on a constant rise in the availability of high volumes of data gathered from multiple sources, resulting in an abundance of unprocessed information that can be used to monitor patterns and trends in user behaviour. Similarly, year after year, Malta is also constantly experiencing ongoing population growth and an increase in mobilization demand. This research takes advantage of data which is continuously being sourced and converting it into useful information related to the traffic problem on the Maltese roads. The scope of this paper is to provide a methodology to create a custom dataset (MalTra - Malta Traffic) compiled from multiple participants from various locations across the island to identify the most common routes taken to expose the main areas of activity. This use of big data is seen being used in various technologies and is referred to as ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems), which has been concluded that there is significant potential in utilising such sources of data on a nationwide scale. Furthermore, a series of traffic prediction graph neural network models are conducted to compare MalTra to large-scale traffic datasets.

Keywords: graph neural networks, traffic management, big data, mobile data patterns

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Authors: Anusha P. Wijesundara, Dulap I. Rathnayake, Nihal D. Perera

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Bathymetric information is fundamental importance to coastal and marine planning and management, nautical navigation, and scientific studies of marine environments. Satellite-derived bathymetry data provide detailed information in areas where conventional sounding data is lacking and conventional surveys are inaccessible. The two empirical approaches of log-linear bathymetric inversion model and non-linear bathymetric inversion model are applied for deriving bathymetry from high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery. This study compares these two approaches by means of geographical error analysis for the site Kankesanturai using WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method calibrated the parameters of non-linear inversion model and the multiple-linear regression model was applied to calibrate the log-linear inversion model. In order to calibrate both models, Single Beam Echo Sounding (SBES) data in this study area were used as reference points. Residuals were calculated as the difference between the derived depth values and the validation echo sounder bathymetry data and the geographical distribution of model residuals was mapped. The spatial autocorrelation was calculated by comparing the performance of the bathymetric models and the results showing the geographic errors for both models. A spatial error model was constructed from the initial bathymetry estimates and the estimates of autocorrelation. This spatial error model is used to generate more reliable estimates of bathymetry by quantifying autocorrelation of model error and incorporating this into an improved regression model. Log-linear model (R²=0.846) performs better than the non- linear model (R²=0.692). Finally, the spatial error models improved bathymetric estimates derived from linear and non-linear models up to R²=0.854 and R²=0.704 respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for all reference points in various depth ranges. The magnitude of the prediction error increases with depth for both the log-linear and the non-linear inversion models. Overall RMSE for log-linear and the non-linear inversion models were ±1.532 m and ±2.089 m, respectively.

Keywords: log-linear model, multi spectral, residuals, spatial error model

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Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

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Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

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Authors: Daniel James Pitchforth, Timothy James Rogers, Ulf Tyge Tygesen, Elizabeth Jane Cross

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Wave loading is a primary cause of fatigue within offshore structures and its quantification presents a challenging and important subtask within the SHM framework. The accurate representation of physics in such environments is difficult, however, driving the development of data-driven techniques in recent years. Within many industrial applications, empirical laws remain the preferred method of wave loading prediction due to their low computational cost and ease of implementation. This paper aims to develop an approach that combines data-driven Gaussian process models with physical empirical solutions for wave loading, including Morison’s Equation. The aim here is to incorporate physics directly into the covariance function (kernel) of the Gaussian process, enforcing derived behaviors whilst still allowing enough flexibility to account for phenomena such as vortex shedding, which may not be represented within the empirical laws. The combined approach has a number of advantages, including improved performance over either component used independently and interpretable hyperparameters.

Keywords: offshore structures, Gaussian processes, Physics informed machine learning, Kernel design

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Authors: Sultan Husein Bayqra, Ali Mardani Aghabaglou, Zia Ahmad Faqiri, Hassane Amidou Ouedraogo

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In this study, the effect of shape and size of the concrete specimen on the compressive and splitting tensile strength of the concrete mixtures in the absence and presence of steel fiber was investigated. For this aim, ten different concrete mixtures having w/c ratio of 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.7 with and without fiber were prepared. In the mixtures containing steel fibers having aspect ratio (L/D) of 64 were used by 1% of the total mixture volume. In all concrete mixtures, CEM I 42,5R type Portland cement and crushed Lime-stone aggregates having different aggregate size fractions were used. The combined aggregate was obtained by mixing %40 0-5 mm, %30 5-12 mm and %30 12-22 mm aggregate size fraction. The slump values of concrete mixtures were kept constant as 17 ± 2 cm. To provide the desired slump value, a polycarboxylate ether-based high range water reducing admixture was used. In order to investigate the effect of size and shape of concrete specimen on strength properties 10 cm, 15 cm cubic specimens and 10×20 cm, 15×30 cm cylindrical specimens were prepared for each mixture. The specimens were cured under standard conditions until testing days. The 7- and 28-day compressive and splitting tensile strengths of mixtures were determined. The results obtained from the experimental study showed that the strength ratio between the cylinder and the cube specimens increased with the increase of the strength of the concrete. Regardless of the fiber utilization and specimen shape, strength values of concrete mixtures were increased by decreasing specimen size. However, the mentioned behaviour was not observed for the case that the mixtures having high W/C ratio and containing fiber. The compressive strength of cube specimens containing fiber was less affected by the size of the specimen compared to that of cube specimens containing no fibers.

Keywords: compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, fiber reinforced concrete, size effect, shape effect

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Authors: Hossein Kabir, Mojtaba Sadeghi

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Nowadays, high-strength concrete is an integral element of a variety of high-rise buildings. On the other hand, finding a suitable aggregate size distribution is a great concern; hence, the concrete mix proportion is presented that has no coarse aggregate, which still withstands enough desirable strength. Nano Reactive Silica sand powder concrete (NRSSPC) is a type of concrete with no coarse material in its own composition. In this concrete, the only aggregate found in the mix design is silica sand powder with a size less than 150 mm that is infinitesimally small regarding the normal concrete. The research aim is to find the compressive strength of this particular concrete under the applied different conditions of curing and consolidation to compare the approaches. In this study, the young concrete specimens were compacted with a pressing or vibrating process. It is worthwhile to mention that in order to show the influence of temperature in the curing process, the concrete specimen was cured either in 20 ⁰C lime water or autoclaved in 90 ⁰C oven.

Keywords: reactive silica sand powder concrete (RSSPC), consolidation, compressive strength, normal curing, thermal accelerated curing

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Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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Authors: Ahmad Javid Zia, Abdulkerim Ilgun, Suleyman Kamil Akin, Mustafa Altin

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Curing conditions that help concrete, which is one of the most widely used building materials in construction sector, gain strength today is one the important issues. In this study the varying concrete strength depending on water temperature at curing stage is investigated through tests at laboratory. At laboratory the curing conditions has been determined according to both TS EN 12390-2 and regular construction site while performing the experiments on specimens. Five samples have been taken from concrete and cured under five different curing conditions and the compressive strength results of concrete specimens have been compared. One of these five curing conditions has been prepared accordance with TS EN 12390-2, the sample cured at 20 ± 2 ˚C and accepted as reference samples. Two of the remaining sample groups have been cured in 5 ± 2 ˚C and 15 ± 2 ˚C and the other two have been cured outside of the laboratory. One group of the samples which have been cured outside has been watered twice a day and the other group has not been watered at all. The experiments have been carried out on 150x150x150 mm cube samples of C20 (200 kg/cm2) and C25 (250 kg/cm2). 7 and 28 days compressive strength of specimens have been measured and compared.

Keywords: concrete curing, curing conditions, water temperature, concrete compressive strength

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Authors: Z. Adnan, M. M. Habib

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The laboratory tests for measuring the effects of small strain to the shear strength and maximum stiffness development of post-cyclic degradation of hemic peat are reviewed in this paper. A series of laboratory testing has been conducted to fulfil the objective of this research to study the post-cyclic behaviour of peat soil and focuses on the small strain characteristics. For this purpose, a number of strain-controlled static, cyclic and post-cyclic triaxial tests were carried out in undrained condition on hemic peat soil. The shear strength and maximum stiffness of hemic peat are evaluated immediately after post-cyclic monotonic testing. There are two soil samples taken from West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil. Based on these laboratories and field testing data, it was found that the shear strength and maximum stiffness of peat soil decreased in post-cyclic monotonic loading than its initial shear strength and stiffness. In particular, degradation in shear strength and stiffness is more sensitive for peat soil due to fragile and uniform fibre structures. Shear strength of peat soil, τ_max = 12.53 kPa (Beaufort peat, BFpt) and 36.61 kPa (Parit Nipah peat, PNpt) decreased than its initial 58.46 kPa and 91.67 kPa. The maximum stiffness, G_max = 0.23 and 0.25 decreased markedly with post-cyclic, G_max = 0.04 and 0.09. Simple correlations between the G_max and the τ_max effects due to small strain, ε = 0.1, the G_max values for post-cyclic are relatively low compared to its initial G_max. As a consequence, the reported values and patterns of both the West Johor and East Malaysia peat soil are generally the same.

Keywords: post-cyclic, strain, maximum stiffness, shear strength

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: microRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM

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Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

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Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

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Authors: Mohammed A. Tashkandi, Jawdat A. Al-Jarrah, Masoud Ibrahim

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This paper investigates the shear strength of the joints produced by friction stir spot welding process (FSSW). FSSW parameters such as tool rotational speed, plunge depth, shoulder diameter of the welding tool and dwell time play the major role in determining the shear strength of the joints. The effect of these four parameters on FSSW process as well as the shear strength of the welded joints was studied via five levels of each parameter. Taguchi method was used to minimize the number of experiments required to determine the fracture load of the friction stir spot-welded joints by incorporating independently controllable FSSW parameters. Taguchi analysis was applied to optimize the FSSW parameters to attain the maximum shear strength of the spot weld for this type of aluminum alloy.

Keywords: Friction Stir Spot Welding, Al6061 alloy, Shear Strength, FSSW process parameters

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Authors: Md. Zahirul Islam, Chad A. Ulven

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Fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites have a wide range of applications in the sectors of automotive, aerospace, sports utilities, among others, due to their high specific strength, stiffness as well as reduced weight. In addition to those favorable properties, composites composed of natural fibers and bio-based resins (i.e., biocomposites) have eco-friendliness and biodegradability. However, the applications of biocomposites are limited due to the lack of knowledge about their long-term reliability under fluctuating loads. In order to explore the long-term reliability of flax fiber reinforced composites under fluctuating loads through high cycle fatigue strength (HCFS), fatigue test were conducted on unidirectional flax fiber reinforced thermoset composites at different percentage loads of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) with a loading frequency of 5 Hz. Change of temperature of the sample during cyclic loading was captured using an IR camera. Initially, the temperature increased rapidly, but after a certain time, it stabilized. A mathematical model was developed to predict the fatigue life from the data of stabilized temperature. Stabilized temperature and dissipated energy per cycle were compared with applied stress. Both showed bilinear behavior and the intersection of those curves were used to determine HCFS. HCFS for unidirectional flax fiber reinforced composites is around 45% of UTS for a loading frequency of 5Hz. Unlike fatigue life, stabilized temperature and dissipated energy-based models are convenient to define HCFS as they have little variation from sample to sample.

Keywords: energy method, fatigue, flax fiber reinforced composite, HCFS, thermographic approach

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Authors: Ergun Guntekin

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Effects of heat treatment on elastic constants of Black pine (Pinus nigra) wood were investigated. Specimens were exposed to heat under atmospheric pressure at two different temperatures (180 and 210 °C) and three different time levels (2, 5, 8 hours). Three Young’s modulus in three anatomical directions, six Poisson’s ratios and three Shear modulus values associated with the main directions were evaluated by compression tests. Compression strength of the samples in three principal directions was also determined. All of the properties of the specimens tested were altered by heat treatment. The degree of alteration depends on the temperature as well as duration applied. Results indicate that EL and compression strength in L direction were not significantly influenced, compression strength in R direction significantly decreased, ER, ET and compression strength in T direction were increased for shorter periods, then dropped for 8-hour application of 180 ºC. ER was not significantly affected, compression strength in R direction and EL was significantly decreased, ET and compression strength in T direction were increased for shorter periods, then decreased for 8-hour application of 210 ºC. The shear modulus of the samples was decreased with application of treatment combinations. Most of the Poisson’s ratios were not affected by heat treatment.

Keywords: black pine, elastic constants, heat treatment, wood

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Authors: F. Al-Fahad, J. Chakkamalayath, A. Al-Aibani

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Conventional methods of determination of concrete strength under controlled laboratory conditions will not accurately represent the actual strength of concrete developed under site curing conditions. This difference in strength measurement will be more in the extreme environment in Kuwait as it is characterized by hot marine environment with normal temperature in summer exceeding 50°C accompanied by dry wind in desert areas and salt laden wind on marine and on shore areas. Therefore, it is required to have test methods to measure the in-place properties of concrete for quality assurance and for the development of durable concrete structures. The maturity method, which defines the strength of a given concrete mix as a function of its age and temperature history, is an approach for quality control for the production of sustainable and durable concrete structures. The unique harsh environmental conditions in Kuwait make it impractical to adopt experiences and empirical equations developed from the maturity methods in other countries. Concrete curing, especially in the early age plays an important role in developing and improving the strength of the structure. This paper investigates the use of maturity method to assess the effectiveness of three different types of curing methods on the compressive and flexural strength development of one high strength concrete mix of 60 MPa produced with silica fume. This maturity approach was used to predict accurately, the concrete compressive and flexural strength at later ages under different curing conditions. Maturity curves were developed for compressive and flexure strengths for a commonly used concrete mix in Kuwait, which was cured using three different curing conditions, including water curing, external spray coating and the use of internal curing compound during concrete mixing. It was observed that the maturity curve developed for the same mix depends on the type of curing conditions. It can be used to predict the concrete strength under different exposure and curing conditions. This study showed that concrete curing with external spray curing method cannot be recommended to use as it failed to aid concrete in reaching accepted values of strength, especially for flexural strength. Using internal curing compound lead to accepted levels of strength when compared with water cuing. Utilization of the developed maturity curves will help contactors and engineers to determine the in-place concrete strength at any time, and under different curing conditions. This will help in deciding the appropriate time to remove the formwork. The reduction in construction time and cost has positive impacts towards sustainable construction.

Keywords: curing, durability, maturity, strength

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Authors: Hizb Ullah Sajid, Muhammad Ashraf, Naveed Ahmad Qaisar Ali, Sikandar Hayat Sajid

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This research study investigates experimentally the effects of flanges (transverse walls) on the lateral in-plane response of brick masonry walls. The experimental work included lateral in-plane quasi-static cyclic tests on full-scale walls (both with & without flanges). The flanges were introduced at both ends of the in-plane wall. In particular the damage mechanism, lateral in-plane stiffness & strength, deformability and energy dissipation of the two classes of walls are compared and the differences are quantified to help understand the effects of flanges on the in-plane response of masonry walls. The available analytical models for the in-plane shear strength & deformation evaluation of masonry walls are critically analyzed. Recommendations are made for the lateral in-plane capacity assessment of brick masonry walls including the contribution of transverse walls.

Keywords: brick masonry, damage mechanism, flanges effects, in-plane response

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Authors: Jacob Green, Cecilia Cabrera, Maximilian Jakobs, Andrea Dimitracopoulos, Mark van der Wilk, Ryan Greenhalgh

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Predicting drug properties is key in drug discovery to enable de-risking of assets before expensive clinical trials and to find highly active compounds faster. Interest from the machine learning community has led to the release of a variety of benchmark datasets and proposed methods. However, it remains unclear for practitioners which method or approach is most suitable, as different papers benchmark on different datasets and methods, leading to varying conclusions that are not easily compared. Our large-scale empirical study links together numerous earlier works on different datasets and methods, thus offering a comprehensive overview of the existing property classes, datasets, and their interactions with different methods. We emphasise the importance of uncertainty quantification and the time and, therefore, cost of applying these methods in the drug development decision-making cycle. To the best of the author's knowledge, it has been observed that the optimal approach varies depending on the dataset and that engineered features with classical machine learning methods often outperform deep learning. Specifically, QSAR datasets are typically best analysed with classical methods such as Gaussian Processes, while ADMET datasets are sometimes better described by Trees or deep learning methods such as Graph Neural Networks or language models. Our work highlights that practitioners do not yet have a straightforward, black-box procedure to rely on and sets a precedent for creating practitioner-relevant benchmarks. Deep learning approaches must be proven on these benchmarks to become the practical method of choice in drug property prediction.

Keywords: activity (QSAR), ADMET, classical methods, drug property prediction, empirical study, machine learning

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Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

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Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

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Authors: Smitha Yadav, Snehal Pathak

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Aggregate compositions in the construction and demolition (C&D) waste have potential to replace normal aggregates. However, to re-utilise these aggregates, the concrete produced with these recycled aggregates needs to provide the desired compressive strength and durability. This paper examines the performance of recycled aggregate concrete made up of 60% recycled aggregates of 20 mm size in terms of durability tests namely rapid chloride permeability, drying shrinkage, water permeability, modulus of elasticity and creep without compromising the compressive strength. The experimental outcome indicates that recycled aggregate concrete provides strength and durability same as controlled concrete when processed for removal of adhered mortar.

Keywords: compressive strength, recycled aggregate, shrinkage, rapid chloride permeation test, modulus of elasticity, water permeability

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Authors: S. U. Khan, T. Ayub, N. Shafiq

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The properties of locally produced metakaolin (MK) as cement replacing material and the comparison of reactivity with commercially available micro-silica have been investigated. Compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, and load-deflection behaviour under bending are the properties that have been studied. The amorphous phase of MK with micro-silica was compared through X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern. Further, interfacial transition zone of concrete with micro-silica and MK was observed through Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM). Three mixes of concrete were prepared. One of the mix is without cement replacement as control mix, and the remaining two mixes are 10% cement replacement with micro-silica and MK. It has been found that MK, due to its irregular structure and amorphous phase, has high reactivity with portlandite in concrete. The compressive strength at early age is higher with MK as compared to micro-silica. MK concrete showed higher splitting tensile strength and higher load carrying capacity as compared to control and micro-silica concrete at all ages respectively.

Keywords: metakaolin, compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, load deflection, interfacial transition zone

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

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Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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Authors: Alaa H. J. Al-Rkaby, A. Chegenizadeh, H. R. Nikraz

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Anisotropy is one of the major aspects that affect soil behavior, and extensive efforts have investigated its effect on the mechanical properties of soil. However, very little attention has been given to the combined effect of anisotropy and fine contents. Therefore, in this paper, the anisotropic strength of sand containing different fine content (F) of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%, was investigated using hollow cylinder tests under different principal stress directions of α = 0° and α = 90°. For a given principal stress direction (α), it was found that increasing fine content resulted in decreasing deviator stress (q). Moreover, results revealed that all fine contents showed anisotropic strength where there is a clear difference between the strength under 0° and the strength under 90°. This anisotropy was greatest under F = 5% while it decreased with increasing fine contents, particularly at F = 10%. Mixtures with low fine content show low contractive behavior and tended to show more dilation. Moreover, all sand-clay mixtures exhibited less dilation and more compression at α = 90° compared with that at α = 0°.

Keywords: anisotropy, principal stress direction, fine content, hollow cylinder sample

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

Abstract:

The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Jian Zheng, Li Li, Maxime Daviault

Abstract:

In several cases, one needs apply lubrication materials in laboratory tests to reduce the friction (shear strength) along the interfaces between a tested soil and the side walls of container. Several types of lubricants are available. Their effectiveness had been tested mostly through direct shear tests. These testing conditions are quite different than those when the tested soil is placed in the container. Thus, the shear strengths measured from direct shear tests may not be totally representative of those of interfaces between the tested soil and the sidewalls of container. In this paper, the effectiveness of different lubricants used to reduce the friction (shear strength) of soil-structure interfaces has been studied. Results show that the selected lubricants do not significantly reduce the sidewall friction (shear strength). Rather, the application of wax, graphite, grease or lubricant oil has effect to increase the sidewall shear strength due probably to the high viscosity of such materials. Subsequently, the application of lubricants between tested soil and sidewall and neglecting the friction (shear strength) along the sidewalls may lead to inaccurate test results.

Keywords: arching, friction, laboratory tests, lubricants

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Abdelghafour Galadi

Abstract:

In this paper, accurate power MOSFET models including quasi-saturation effect are presented. These models have no internal node voltages determined by the circuit simulator and use one JFET or one depletion mode MOSFET transistors controlled by an “effective” gate voltage taking into account the quasi-saturation effect. The proposed models achieve accurate simulation results with an average error percentage less than 9%, which is an improvement of 21 percentage points compared to the commonly used standard power MOSFET model. In addition, the models can be integrated in any available commercial circuit simulators by using their analytical equations. A description of the models will be provided along with the parameter extraction procedure.

Keywords: power MOSFET, drift layer, quasi-saturation effect, SPICE model

Procedia PDF Downloads 194