Search results for: harmonics estimation

Authors: Elia Favarelli, Enrico Testi, Andrea Giorgetti

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Autonomous structural health monitoring (SHM) of many structures and bridges became a topic of paramount importance for maintenance purposes and safety reasons. This paper proposes a set of machine learning (ML) tools to perform automatic feature selection and detection of anomalies in a bridge from vibrational data and compare different feature extraction schemes to increase the accuracy and reduce the amount of data collected. As a case study, the Z-24 bridge is considered because of the extensive database of accelerometric data in both standard and damaged conditions. The proposed framework starts from the first four fundamental frequencies extracted through operational modal analysis (OMA) and clustering, followed by density-based time-domain filtering (tracking). The fundamental frequencies extracted are then fed to a dimensionality reduction block implemented through two different approaches: feature selection (intelligent multiplexer) that tries to estimate the most reliable frequencies based on the evaluation of some statistical features (i.e., mean value, variance, kurtosis), and feature extraction (auto-associative neural network (ANN)) that combine the fundamental frequencies to extract new damage sensitive features in a low dimensional feature space. Finally, one class classifier (OCC) algorithms perform anomaly detection, trained with standard condition points, and tested with normal and anomaly ones. In particular, a new anomaly detector strategy is proposed, namely one class classifier neural network two (OCCNN2), which exploit the classification capability of standard classifiers in an anomaly detection problem, finding the standard class (the boundary of the features space in normal operating conditions) through a two-step approach: coarse and fine boundary estimation. The coarse estimation uses classics OCC techniques, while the fine estimation is performed through a feedforward neural network (NN) trained that exploits the boundaries estimated in the coarse step. The detection algorithms vare then compared with known methods based on principal component analysis (PCA), kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), and auto-associative neural network (ANN). In many cases, the proposed solution increases the performance with respect to the standard OCC algorithms in terms of F1 score and accuracy. In particular, by evaluating the correct features, the anomaly can be detected with accuracy and an F1 score greater than 96% with the proposed method.

Keywords: anomaly detection, frequencies selection, modal analysis, neural network, sensor network, structural health monitoring, vibration measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

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The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Longxiang Guo, Haoyan Hao, Xueli Sheng, Hanjun Yu, Jingwei Yin

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In order to prevent target splitting and ensure the accuracy of fusion, system error registration is an important step in multi-static sonar fusion detection system. To eliminate the inherent system errors including distance error and angle error of each sonar in detection, this paper uses offline estimation method for error registration. Suppose several sonars from different platforms work together to detect a target. The target position detected by each sonar is based on each sonar’s own reference coordinate system. Based on the two-dimensional stereo projection method, this paper uses real-time quality control (RTQC) method and least squares (LS) method to estimate sensor biases. The RTQC method takes the average value of each sonar’s data as the observation value and the LS method makes the least square processing of each sonar’s data to get the observation value. In the underwater acoustic environment, matlab simulation is carried out and the simulation results show that both algorithms can estimate the distance and angle error of sonar system. The performance of the two algorithms is also compared through the root mean square error and the influence of measurement noise on registration accuracy is explored by simulation. The system error convergence of RTQC method is rapid, but the distribution of targets has a serious impact on its performance. LS method can not be affected by target distribution, but the increase of random noise will slow down the convergence rate. LS method is an improvement of RTQC method, which is widely used in two-dimensional registration. The improved method can be used for underwater multi-target detection registration.

Keywords: data fusion, multi-static sonar detection, offline estimation, sensor registration problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Mohamed El Morsy, Gabriela Achtenová

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Research on damage of gears and gear pairs using vibration signals remains very attractive, because vibration signals from a gear pair are complex in nature and not easy to interpret. Predicting gear pair defects by analyzing changes in vibration signal of gears pairs in operation is a very reliable method. Therefore, a suitable vibration signal processing technique is necessary to extract defect information generally obscured by the noise from dynamic factors of other gear pairs. This article presents the value of cepstrum analysis in vehicle gearbox fault diagnosis. Cepstrum represents the overall power content of a whole family of harmonics and sidebands when more than one family of sidebands is present at the same time. The concept for the measurement and analysis involved in using the technique are briefly outlined. Cepstrum analysis is used for detection of an artificial pitting defect in a vehicle gearbox loaded with different speeds and torques. The test stand is equipped with three dynamometers; the input dynamometer serves as the internal combustion engine, the output dynamometers introduce the load on the flanges of the output joint shafts. The pitting defect is manufactured on the tooth side of a gear of the fifth speed on the secondary shaft. Also, a method for fault diagnosis of gear faults is presented based on order cepstrum. The procedure is illustrated with the experimental vibration data of the vehicle gearbox. The results show the effectiveness of cepstrum analysis in detection and diagnosis of the gear condition.

Keywords: cepstrum analysis, fault diagnosis, gearbox, vibration signals

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Antonella Falanga, Armando Cartenì

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Today, an unprecedented amount of data coming from several sources, including mobile devices, sensors, tracking systems, and online platforms, characterizes our lives. The term “big data” not only refers to the quantity of data but also to the variety and speed of data generation. These data hold valuable insights that, when extracted and analyzed, facilitate informed decision-making. The 4Vs of big data - velocity, volume, variety, and value - highlight essential aspects, showcasing the rapid generation, vast quantities, diverse sources, and potential value addition of these kinds of data. This surge of information has revolutionized many sectors, such as business for improving decision-making processes, healthcare for clinical record analysis and medical research, education for enhancing teaching methodologies, agriculture for optimizing crop management, finance for risk assessment and fraud detection, media and entertainment for personalized content recommendations, emergency for a real-time response during crisis/events, and also mobility for the urban planning and for the design/management of public and private transport services. Big data's pervasive impact enhances societal aspects, elevating the quality of life, service efficiency, and problem-solving capacities. However, during this transformative era, new challenges arise, including data quality, privacy, data security, cybersecurity, interoperability, the need for advanced infrastructures, and staff training. Within the transportation sector (the one investigated in this research), applications span planning, designing, and managing systems and mobility services. Among the most common big data applications within the transport sector are, for example, real-time traffic monitoring, bus/freight vehicle route optimization, vehicle maintenance, road safety and all the autonomous and connected vehicles applications. Benefits include a reduction in travel times, road accidents and pollutant emissions. Within these issues, the proper transport demand estimation is crucial for sustainable transportation planning. Evaluating the impact of sustainable mobility policies starts with a quantitative analysis of travel demand. Achieving transportation decarbonization goals hinges on precise estimations of demand for individual transport modes. Emerging technologies, offering substantial big data at lower costs than traditional methods, play a pivotal role in this context. Starting from these considerations, this study explores the usefulness impact of big data within transport demand estimation. This research focuses on leveraging (big) data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the evolution of the mobility demand in Italy. Estimation results reveal in the post-COVID-19 era, more than 96 million national daily trips, about 2.6 trips per capita, with a mobile population of more than 37.6 million Italian travelers per day. Overall, this research allows us to conclude that big data better enhances rational decision-making for mobility demand estimation, which is imperative for adeptly planning and allocating investments in transportation infrastructures and services.

Keywords: big data, cloud computing, decision-making, mobility demand, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

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In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural net-work, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Jules Selles

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The Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna fishery have been considered as the archetype of an overfished and mismanaged fishery. This crisis has demonstrated the role of public awareness and the importance of the interactions between science and management about scientific uncertainties. This work aims at investigating the policy making process associated with a regional fisheries management organization. We propose a contextualized computer-based experimental approach, in order to explore the effects of key factors on the cooperation process in a complex straddling stock management setting. Namely, we analyze the effects of the introduction of a socio-economic tipping point and the uncertainty surrounding the estimation of the resource level. Our approach is based on a Gordon-Schaefer bio-economic model which explicitly represents the decision making process. Each participant plays the role of a stakeholder of ICCAT and represents a coalition of fishing nations involved in the fishery and decide unilaterally a harvest policy for the coming year. The context of the experiment induces the incentives for exploitation and collaboration to achieve common sustainable harvest plans at the Atlantic bluefin tuna stock scale. Our rigorous framework allows testing how stakeholders who plan the exploitation of a fish stock (a common pool resource) respond to two kinds of effects: i) the inclusion of a drastic shift in the management constraints (beyond a socio-economic tipping point) and ii) an increasing uncertainty in the scientific estimation of the resource level.

Keywords: economic experiment, fisheries management, game theory, policy making, Atlantic Bluefin tuna

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Kayode A. Olaniyi, Adeola A. Ogunleye, Tola M. Osifeko

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Electric Vehicles (EV) appear to be gaining increasing patronage as a feasible alternative to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) for having low emission and high operation efficiency. The EV energy storage systems are required to handle high energy and power density capacity constrained by limited space, operating temperature, weight and cost. The choice of strategies for energy storage evaluation, monitoring and control remains a challenging task. This paper presents review of various energy storage technologies and recent researches in battery evaluation techniques used in EV applications. It also underscores strategies for the hybrid energy storage management and control schemes for the improvement of EV stability and reliability. The study reveals that despite the advances recorded in battery technologies there is still no cell which possess both the optimum power and energy densities among other requirements, for EV application. However combination of two or more energy storages as hybrid and allowing the advantageous attributes from each device to be utilized is a promising solution. The review also reveals that State-of-Charge (SoC) is the most crucial method for battery estimation. The conventional method of SoC measurement is however questioned in the literature and adaptive algorithms that include all model of disturbances are being proposed. The review further suggests that heuristic-based approach is commonly adopted in the development of strategies for hybrid energy storage system management. The alternative approach which is optimization-based is found to be more accurate but is memory and computational intensive and as such not recommended in most real-time applications.

Keywords: battery state estimation, hybrid electric vehicle, hybrid energy storage, state of charge, state of health

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: M. E. Razipoor, T. Masunaga, K. Sato, M. S. Saboory

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Estimation of soil erosion is economically and environmentally important in Herat, Afghanistan. Degradation of soil has negative impact (decreased soil fertility, destroyed soil structure, and consequently soil sealing and crusting) on life of Herat residents. Water and wind are the main erosive factors causing soil erosion in Herat. Furthermore, scarce vegetation cover, exacerbated by socioeconomic constraint, and steep slopes accelerate soil erosion. To sustain soil productivity and reduce soil erosion impact on human life, due to sustaining agricultural production and auditing the environment, it is needed to quantify the magnitude and extent of soil erosion in a spatial domain. Thus, this study aims to estimate soil loss potential and its spatial distribution in Herat, Afghanistan by applying RUSLE in GIS environment. The rainfall erosivity factor ranged between values of 125 and 612 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1). Soil erodibility factor varied from 0.036 to 0.073 (Mg h MJ-1 mm-1). Slope length and steepness factor (LS) values were between 0.03 and 31.4. The vegetation cover factor (C), derived from NDVI analysis of Landsat-8 OLI scenes, resulting in range of 0.03 to 1. Support practice factor (P) were assigned to a value of 1, since there is not significant mitigation practices in the study area. Soil erosion potential map was the product of these factors. Mean soil erosion rate of Herat Province was 29 Mg ha-1 year-1 that ranged from 0.024 Mg ha-1 year-1 in flat areas with dense vegetation cover to 778 Mg ha-1 year-1 in sharp slopes with high rainfall but least vegetation cover. Based on land cover map of Afghanistan, areas with soil loss rate higher than soil loss tolerance (8 Mg ha-1 year-1) occupies 98% of Forests, 81% rangelands, 64% barren lands, 60% rainfed lands, 28% urban area and 18% irrigated Lands.

Keywords: Afghanistan, erosion, GIS, Herat, RUSLE

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Ismatilla Mardanov

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There are three types of countries, the first of which is willing to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in enormous amounts and do whatever it takes to make this happen. Therefore, FDI pours into such countries. In the second cluster of countries, even if the country is suffering tremendously from the shortage of investments, the governments are hesitant to attract investments because they are at the hands of local oligarchs/cartels. Therefore, FDI inflows are moderate to low in such countries. The third type is countries whose companies prefer investing in the most efficient locations globally and are hesitant to invest in the homeland. Sorting countries into such clusters, the present study examines the essential institutions and economic factors that make these countries different. Past literature has discussed various determinants of FDI in all kinds of countries. However, it did not classify countries based on government motivation, institutional setup, and economic factors. A specific approach to each target country is vital for corporate foreign direct investment risk analysis and decisions. The research questions are 1. What specific institutional and economic factors paint the pictures of the three clusters; 2. What specific institutional and economic factors are determinants of FDI; 3. Which of the determinants are endogenous and exogenous variables? 4. How can institutions and economic and political variables impact corporate investment decisions Hypothesis 1: In the first type, country institutions and economic factors will be favorable for FDI. Hypothesis 2: In the second type, even if country economic factors favor FDI, institutions will not. Hypothesis 3: In the third type, even if country institutions favorFDI, economic factors will not favor domestic investments. Therefore, FDI outflows occur in large amounts. Methods: Data come from open sources of the World Bank, the Fraser Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and other reliable sources. The dependent variable is FDI inflows. The independent variables are institutions (economic and political freedom indices) and economic factors (natural, material, and labor resources, government consumption, infrastructure, minimum wage, education, unemployment, tax rates, consumer price index, inflation, and others), the endogeneity or exogeneity of which are tested in the instrumental variable estimation. Political rights and civil liberties are used as instrumental variables. Results indicate that in the first type, both country institutions and economic factors, specifically labor and logistics/infrastructure/energy intensity, are favorable for potential investors. In the second category of countries, the risk of loss of assets is very high due to governmentshijacked by local oligarchs/cartels/special interest groups. In the third category of countries, the local economic factors are unfavorable for domestic investment even if the institutions are well acceptable. Cluster analysis and instrumental variable estimation were used to reveal cause-effect patterns in each of the clusters.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, economy, institutions, instrumental variable estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Solomon Neway Jida, Jean-Francois Hetet, Pascal Chesse

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Vehicular emission is the key source of air pollution in the urban environment. This includes both fine particles (PM_2.5) and coarse particulate matters (PM₁₀). However, particulate matter emissions from road traffic comprise emissions from exhaust tailpipe and emissions due to wear and tear of the vehicle part such as brake, tire and clutch and re-suspension of dust (non-exhaust emission). This study estimates the share of the two sources of pollutant particle emissions from on-roadside vehicles in the Addis Ababa municipality, Ethiopia. To calculate its share, two methods were applied; the exhaust-tailpipe emissions were calculated using the Europeans emission inventory Tier II method and Tier I for the non-exhaust emissions (like vehicle tire wear, brake, and road surface wear). The results show that of the total traffic-related particulate emissions in the city, 63% emitted from vehicle exhaust and the remaining 37% from non-exhaust sources. The annual roads transport exhaust emission shares around 2394 tons of particles from all vehicle categories. However, from the total yearly non-exhaust particulate matter emissions’ contribution, tire and brake wear shared around 65% and 35% emanated by road-surface wear. Furthermore, vehicle tire and brake wear were responsible for annual 584.8 tons of coarse particles (PM₁₀) and 314.4 tons of fine particle matter (PM_2.5) emissions in the city whereas surface wear emissions were responsible for around 313.7 tons of PM₁₀ and 169.9 tons of PM_2.5 pollutant emissions in the city. This suggests that non-exhaust sources might be as significant as exhaust sources and have a considerable contribution to the impact on air quality.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, automotive emission, emission estimation, particulate matters

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Seyedamir Makinejadsanij

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One of the most important factors in the production of quality steel is to know the exact weight of steel in the steelmaking area. In this study, a calculation method is presented to estimate the exact weight of the melt as well as the objects transported by the overhead crane. Iran Alloy Steel Company's steelmaking area has three 90-ton cranes, which are responsible for transferring the ladles and ladle caps between 34 areas in the melt shop. Each crane is equipped with a Disomat Tersus weighing system that calculates and displays real-time weight. The moving object has a variable weight due to swinging, and the weighing system has an error of about +-5%. This means that when the object is moving by a crane, which weighs about 80 tons, the device (Disomat Tersus system) calculates about 4 tons more or 4 tons less, and this is the biggest problem in calculating a real weight. The k-means algorithm is an unsupervised clustering method that was used here. The best result was obtained by considering 3 centers. Compared to the normal average(one) or two, four, five, and six centers, the best answer is with 3 centers, which is logically due to the elimination of noise above and below the real weight. Every day, the standard weight is moved with working cranes to test and calibrate cranes. The results are shown that the accuracy is about 40 kilos per 60 tons (standard weight). As a result, with this method, the accuracy of moving weight is calculated as 99.95%. K-means is used to calculate the exact mean of objects. The stopping criterion of the algorithm is also the number of 1000 repetitions or not moving the points between the clusters. As a result of the implementation of this system, the crane operator does not stop while moving objects and continues his activity regardless of weight calculations. Also, production speed increased, and human error decreased.

Keywords: k-means, overhead crane, melt weight, weight estimation, swing problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Amine Ben Slama, Aymen Mouelhi, Sondes Manoubi, Chiraz Mbarek, Hedi Trabelsi, Mounir Sayadi, Farhat Fnaiech

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Vertigo is a sensation of feeling off balance; the cause of this symptom is very difficult to interpret and needs a complementary exam. Generally, vertigo is caused by an ear problem. Some of the most common causes include: benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV), Meniere's disease and vestibular neuritis (VN). In clinical practice, different tests of videonystagmographic (VNG) technique are used to detect the presence of vestibular neuritis (VN). The topographical diagnosis of this disease presents a large diversity in its characteristics that confirm a mixture of problems for usual etiological analysis methods. In this study, a vestibular neuritis analysis method is proposed with videonystagmography (VNG) applications using an estimation of pupil movements in the case of an uncontrolled motion to obtain an efficient and reliable diagnosis results. First, an estimation of the pupil displacement vectors using with Hough Transform (HT) is performed to approximate the location of pupil region. Then, temporal and frequency features are computed from the rotation angle variation of the pupil motion. Finally, optimized features are selected using Fisher criterion evaluation for discrimination and classification of the VN disease.Experimental results are analyzed using two categories: normal and pathologic. By classifying the reduced features using the Support Vector Machine (SVM), 94% is achieved as classification accuracy. Compared to recent studies, the proposed expert system is extremely helpful and highly effective to resolve the problem of VNG analysis and provide an accurate diagnostic for medical devices.

Keywords: nystagmus, vestibular neuritis, videonystagmographic system, VNG, Fisher criterion, support vector machine, SVM

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Kamyar Maleki Bagherabadi, Torstein Aarseth Bø, Truls Flatberg, Olve Mo

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Hydrogen fuel cells and batteries are one of the promising solutions aligned with carbon emission reduction goals for the marine sector. However, the higher installation and operation costs of hydrogen-based systems compared to conventional diesel gensets raise questions about the appropriate hydrogen tank size, energy, and fuel consumption estimations. Ship designers need methodologies and tools to calculate energy and fuel consumption for different component sizes to facilitate decision-making regarding feasibility and performance for retrofits and design cases. The aim of this work is to compare three alternative modeling approaches for the estimation of energy and fuel consumption with various hydrogen tank sizes, battery capacities, and load-sharing strategies. A fishery vessel is selected as an example, using logged load demand data over a year of operations. The modeled power system consists of a PEM fuel cell, a diesel genset, and a battery. The methodologies used are: first, an energy-based model; second, considering load variations during the time domain with a rule-based Power Management System (PMS); and third, a load variations model and dynamic PMS strategy based on optimization with perfect foresight. The errors and potentials of the methods are discussed, and design sensitivity studies for this case are conducted. The results show that the energy-based method can estimate fuel and energy consumption with acceptable accuracy. However, models that consider time variation of the load provide more realistic estimations of energy and fuel consumption regarding hydrogen tank and battery size, still within low computational time.

Keywords: fuel cell, battery, hydrogen, hybrid power system, power management system

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

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The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Purnima Dhall, Rita Kumar

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Introduction: River Yamuna, in the national capital territory (NCT), and also the primary source of drinking water for the city. Delhi discharges about 3,684 MLD of sewage through its 18 drains in to the Yamuna. Water quality monitoring is an important aspect of water management concerning to the pollution control. Public concern and legislation are now a day’s demanding better environmental control. Conventional method for estimating BOD5 has various drawbacks as they are expensive, time-consuming, and require the use of highly trained personnel. Stringent forthcoming regulations on the wastewater have necessitated the urge to develop analytical system, which contribute to greater process efficiency. Biosensors offer the possibility of real time analysis. Methodology: In the present study, a novel rapid method for the determination of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) has been developed. Using the developed method, the BOD of a sample can be determined within 2 hours as compared to 3-5 days with the standard BOD3-5day assay. Moreover, the test is based on specified consortia instead of undefined seeding material therefore it minimizes the variability among the results. The device is coupled to software which automatically calculates the dilution required, so, the prior dilution of the sample is not required before BOD estimation. The developed BOD-Biosensor makes use of immobilized microorganisms to sense the biochemical oxygen demand of industrial wastewaters having low–moderate–high biodegradability. The method is quick, robust, online and less time consuming. Findings: The results of extensive testing of the developed biosensor on drains demonstrate that the BOD values obtained by the device correlated with conventional BOD values the observed R2 value was 0.995. The reproducibility of the measurements with the BOD biosensor was within a percentage deviation of ±10%. Advantages of developed BOD biosensor • Determines the water pollution quickly in 2 hours of time; • Determines the water pollution of all types of waste water; • Has prolonged shelf life of more than 400 days; • Enhanced repeatability and reproducibility values; • Elimination of COD estimation. Distinctiveness of Technology: • Bio-component: can determine BOD load of all types of waste water; • Immobilization: increased shelf life > 400 days, extended stability and viability; • Software: Reduces manual errors, reduction in estimation time. Conclusion: BiosensorBOD can be used to measure the BOD value of the real wastewater samples. The BOD biosensor showed good reproducibility in the results. This technology is useful in deciding treatment strategies well ahead and so facilitating discharge of properly treated water to common water bodies. The developed technology has been transferred to M/s Forbes Marshall Pvt Ltd, Pune.

Keywords: biosensor, biochemical oxygen demand, immobilized, monitoring, Yamuna

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Huan-Chieh Chiu, Hung-Shuo Wu, Chien-Hao Wang, Yu-Cheng Yang, Ching-Ya Tseng, Joe-Air Jiang

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Power failure resulting from tower collapse due to violent seismic events might bring enormous and inestimable losses. The Chi-Chi earthquake, for example, strongly struck Taiwan and caused huge damage to the power system on September 21, 1999. Nearly 10% of extra high voltage (EHV) transmission towers were damaged in the earthquake. Therefore, seismic hazards of EHV transmission towers should be monitored and evaluated. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a damage level assessment model for EHV transmission towers. The data of earthquakes provided by Taiwan Central Weather Bureau serve as a reference and then lay the foundation for earthquake simulations and analyses afterward. Some parameters related to the damage level of each point of an EHV tower are simulated and analyzed by the data from monitoring stations once an earthquake occurs. Through the Fourier transform, the seismic wave is then analyzed and transformed into different wave frequencies, and the data would be shown through a response spectrum. With this method, the seismic frequency which damages EHV towers the most is clearly identified. An estimation model is built to determine the damage level caused by a future seismic event. Finally, instead of relying on visual observation done by inspectors, the proposed model can provide a power company with the damage information of a transmission tower. Using the model, manpower required by visual observation can be reduced, and the accuracy of the damage level estimation can be substantially improved. Such a model is greatly useful for health and construction monitoring because of the advantages of long-term evaluation of structural characteristics and long-term damage detection.

Keywords: damage level monitoring, drift ratio, fragility curve, smart grid, transmission tower

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Katri K. Cornelissen, Lise Gulli Brokjob, Kristofor McCarty, Jiri Gumancik, Martin J. Tovee, Piers L. Cornelissen

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Recent research has shown that body size estimation of healthy women is driven by independent attitudinal and perceptual components. The attitudinal component represents psychological concerns about body, coupled to low self-esteem and a tendency towards depressive symptomatology, leading to over-estimation of body size, independent of the Body Mass Index (BMI) someone actually has. The perceptual component is a normal bias known as contraction bias, which, for bodies is dependent on actual BMI. Women with a BMI less than the population norm tend to overestimate their size, while women with a BMI greater than the population norm tend to underestimate their size. Women whose BMI is close to the population mean are most accurate. This is indexed by a regression of estimated BMI on actual BMI with a slope less than one. It is well established that body dissatisfaction, i.e. an attitudinal distortion, leads to body size overestimation in eating disordered individuals. However, debate persists as to whether women with eating disorders may also suffer a perceptual body distortion. Therefore, the current study was set to ask whether women with eating disorders exhibit the normal contraction bias when they estimate their own body size. If they do not, this would suggest differences in the way that women with eating disorders process the perceptual aspects of body shape and size in comparison to healthy controls. 100 healthy controls and 33 women with a history of eating disorders were recruited. Critically, it was ensured that both groups of participants represented comparable and adequate ranges of actual BMI (e.g. ~18 to ~40). Of those with eating disorders, 19 had a history of anorexia nervosa, 6 bulimia nervosa, and 8 OSFED. 87.5% of the women with a history of eating disorders self-reported that they were either recovered or recovering, and 89.7% of them self-reported that they had had one or more instances of relapse. The mean time lapsed since first diagnosis was 5 years and on average participants had experienced two relapses. Participants were asked to fill number of psychometric measures (EDE-Q, BSQ, RSE, BDI) to establish the attitudinal component of their body image as well as their tendency to internalize socio-cultural body ideals. Additionally, participants completed a method of adjustment psychophysical task, using photorealistic avatars calibrated for BMI, in order to provide an estimate of their own body size and shape. The data from the healthy controls replicate previous findings, revealing independent contributions to body size estimation from both attitudinal and perceptual (i.e. contraction bias) body image components, as described above. For the eating disorder group, once the adequacy of their actual BMI ranges was established, a regression of estimated BMI on actual BMI had a slope greater than 1, significantly different to that from controls. This suggests that (some) eating disordered individuals process the perceptual aspects of body image differently from healthy controls. It therefore is necessary to develop interventions which are specific to the perceptual processing of body shape and size for the management of (some) individuals with eating disorders.

Keywords: body image distortion, perception, recovery, relapse, BMI, eating disorders

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Authors: Said Ali Al-Hadhrami, Amer Ibrahim Al-Omari

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In this paper, Bayesian estimation for the mean of exponential distribution is considered using Moving Extremes Ranked Set Sampling (MERSS). Three priors are used; Jeffery, conjugate and constant using MERSS and Simple Random Sampling (SRS). Some properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. It is found that the suggested estimators using MERSS are more efficient than its counterparts based on SRS.

Keywords: Bayesian, efficiency, moving extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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A method is proposed for stable detection of seismoacoustic sources in C-OTDR systems that guarantee given upper bounds for probabilities of type I and type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this.

Keywords: guaranteed detection, C-OTDR systems, change point, interval estimation

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Authors: Apurva Singh, S. P. Jaiswar, Apala Priyadarshini, Akancha Pandey

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Objective: The aim of this study is to find the association of PON1 gene polymorphism with pesticides In RPL subjects. Background: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) is defined as three or more sequential abortions before the 20th week of gestation. Pesticides and its derivatives (organochlorine and organophosphate) are proposed to accommodate a ruler chemical for RPL in the sub-humid region of India. The paraoxonase-1 enzyme (PON1) plays an important role in the toxicity of some organophosphate pesticides, with low PON1 activity being associated with higher pesticide sensitivity Methodology: This is a case-control study done in Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology & Department of Biochemistry, K.G.M.U, Lucknow, India. The subjects were enrolled after fulfilling the inclusion & exclusion criteria. Inclusion criteria: Cases- Subject having two or more spontaneous abortions & Control- Healthy female having one or more alive child was selected. Exclusion criteria: Cases & Control- Subject having the following disease will be excluded from the study Diabetes mellitus, Hypertension, Tuberculosis, Immunocompromised patients, any endocrine disorder and genital, colon or breast cancer any other malignancies. Blood samples were collected in EDTA tubes from cases & healthy control women & genomic DNA was extracted by phenol-chloroform method. The estimation of pesticides residue from blood was done by HPLC. Biochemical estimation was also performed. Genotyping of PON1 gene polymorphism was performed by RFLP. Statistical analysis of the data was performed using the SPSS16.3 software. Results: A sum of total 14 pesticides (12 organochlorine and 2 organophosphate) selected on the basis of their persistent nature and consumption rate. The significant level of pesticide (ppb) estimated by the Mann whiney test and it was found to be significant at higher level of β-HCH (p:0.04), γ-HCH (p:0.001), δ-HCH (p: 0.002), chloropyrifos (p:0.001), pp-DDD (p:0.001) and fenvalrate (p: 0.001) in case group compare to its control. The level of antioxidant enzymes were found to be significantly decreased among the cases. Wild homozygous TT was more frequent and prevalent among control groups. However, heterozygous group (Tt) was more in cases than control groups (CI-0.3-1.3) (p=0.06). Conclusion: Higher levels of pesticides with endocrine disrupting potential in cases indicate the possible role of these compounds as one of the causes of recurrent pregnancy loss. Possibly, increased pesticide level appears to indicate increased levels of oxidative damage that has been associated with the possible cause of Recurrent Miscarriage, it may reflect indirect evidence of toxicity rather than the direct cause. Since both factors are reported to increase risk, individuals with higher levels of these 'Toxic compounds' especially in 'high-risk genotypes' might be more susceptible to recurrent pregnancy loss.

Keywords: paraoxonase, pesticides, PON1, RPL

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Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

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Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: dynamic modeling, missing data, mobility, multiple imputation

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Authors: Abderrahmane Diaf, Assia Cherfa, Lamia Karadaniz

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Multiple tray solar distillation offers an interesting alternative for small-scale desalination and production high quality distilled water at a competitive cost using solar energy. In this work, we present indoor/outdoor trial performance data of our multiple tray solar distillation as well as the results of cost estimation analysis.

Keywords: solar desalination, tray distillation, multi-étages solaire, solar distillation

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Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

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Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

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Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

Abstract:

Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

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Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

Abstract:

The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Saeed Asiri, Yousuf Z. AL-Zahrani

Abstract:

A new class of support structures, called periodic structures, is introduced in this paper as a viable means for isolating the vibration transmitted from the sea waves to offshore platform structures through its legs. A passive approach to reduce transmitted vibration generated by waves is presented. The approach utilizes the property of periodic structural components that creates stop and pass bands. The stop band regions can be tailored to correspond to regions of the frequency spectra that contain harmonics of the wave frequency, attenuating the response in those regions. A periodic structural component is comprised of a repeating array of cells, which are themselves an assembly of elements. The elements may have differing material properties as well as geometric variations. For the purpose of this research, only geometric and material variations are considered and each cell is assumed to be identical. A periodic leg is designed in order to reduce transmitted vibration of sea waves. The effectiveness of the periodicity on the vibration levels of platform will be demonstrated theoretically. The theory governing the operation of this class of periodic structures is introduced using the transfer matrix method. The unique filtering characteristics of periodic structures are demonstrated as functions of their design parameters for structures with geometrical and material discontinuities; and determine the propagation factor by using the spectral finite element analysis and the effectiveness of design on the leg structure by changing the ratio of step length and area interface between the materials is demonstrated in order to find the propagation factor and frequency response.

Keywords: vibrations, periodic structures, offshore, platforms, transfer matrix method

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