Search results for: gaussian mixture models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8059

Search results for: gaussian mixture models

7429 Performance Comparison of Non-Binary RA and QC-LDPC Codes

Authors: Ni Wenli, He Jing

Abstract:

Repeat–Accumulate (RA) codes are subclass of LDPC codes with fast encoder structures. In this paper, we consider a nonbinary extension of binary LDPC codes over GF(q) and construct a non-binary RA code and a non-binary QC-LDPC code over GF(2^4), we construct non-binary RA codes with linear encoding method and non-binary QC-LDPC codes with algebraic constructions method. And the BER performance of RA and QC-LDPC codes over GF(q) are compared with BP decoding and by simulation over the Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) channels.

Keywords: non-binary RA codes, QC-LDPC codes, performance comparison, BP algorithm

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7428 Formulation and in vitro Evaluation of Sustained Release Matrix Tablets of Levetiracetam for Better Epileptic Treatment

Authors: Nagasamy Venkatesh Dhandapani

Abstract:

The objective of the present study was to develop sustained release oral matrix tablets of anti epileptic drug levetiracetam. The sustained release matrix tablets of levetiracetam were prepared using hydrophilic matrix hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) as a release retarding polymer by wet granulation method. Prior to compression, FTIR studies were performed to understand the compatibility between the drug and excipients. The study revealed that there was no chemical interaction between drug and excipients used in the study. The tablets were characterized by physical and chemical parameters and results were found in acceptable limits. In vitro release study was carried out for the tablets using 0.1 N HCl for 2 hours and in phosphate buffer pH 7.4 for remaining time up to 12 hours. The effect of polymer concentration was studied. Different dissolution models were applied to drug release data in order to evaluate release mechanisms and kinetics. The drug release data fit well to zero order kinetics. Drug release mechanism was found as a complex mixture of diffusion, swelling and erosion.

Keywords: levetiracetam, sustained-release, hydrophilic matrix tablet, HPMC grade K 100 MCR, wet granulation, zero order release kinetics

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7427 Rain Gauges Network Optimization in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd Aziz, Fadhilah Yusof, Zulkifli Yusop, Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohammad Afif Kasno

Abstract:

Recent developed rainfall network design techniques have been discussed and compared by many researchers worldwide due to the demand of acquiring higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In many studies, rain-gauge networks are designed to provide good estimation for areal rainfall and for flood modelling and prediction. In a certain study, even using lumped models for flood forecasting, a proper gauge network can significantly improve the results. Therefore existing rainfall network in Johor must be optimized and redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The well-known geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) that is combined with simulated annealing was used as an algorithm of optimization in this study to obtain the optimal number and locations of the rain gauges. Rain gauge network structure is not only dependent on the station density; station location also plays an important role in determining whether information is acquired accurately. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data during monsoon season (November – February) for the period of 1975 – 2008. Three different semivariogram models which are Spherical, Gaussian and Exponential were used and their performances were also compared in this study. Cross validation technique was applied to compute the errors and the result showed that exponential model is the best semivariogram. It was found that the proposed method was satisfied by a network of 64 rain gauges with the minimum estimated variance and 20 of the existing ones were removed and relocated. An existing network may consist of redundant stations that may make little or no contribution to the network performance for providing quality data. Therefore, two different cases were considered in this study. The first case considered the removed stations that were optimally relocated into new locations to investigate their influence in the calculated estimated variance and the second case explored the possibility to relocate all 84 existing stations into new locations to determine the optimal position. The relocations of the stations in both cases have shown that the new optimal locations have managed to reduce the estimated variance and it has proven that locations played an important role in determining the optimal network.

Keywords: geostatistics, simulated annealing, semivariogram, optimization

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7426 Towards an Enhanced Compartmental Model for Profiling Malware Dynamics

Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

Abstract:

We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
7425 Determination of Direct Solar Radiation Using Atmospheric Physics Models

Authors: Pattra Pukdeekiat, Siriluk Ruangrungrote

Abstract:

This work was originated to precisely determine direct solar radiation by using atmospheric physics models since the accurate prediction of solar radiation is necessary and useful for solar energy applications including atmospheric research. The possible models and techniques for a calculation of regional direct solar radiation were challenging and compulsory for the case of unavailable instrumental measurement. The investigation was mathematically governed by six astronomical parameters i.e. declination (δ), hour angle (ω), solar time, solar zenith angle (θz), extraterrestrial radiation (Iso) and eccentricity (E0) along with two atmospheric parameters i.e. air mass (mr) and dew point temperature at Bangna meteorological station (13.67° N, 100.61° E) in Bangkok, Thailand. Analyses of five models of solar radiation determination with the assumption of clear sky were applied accompanied by three statistical tests: Mean Bias Difference (MBD), Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD) and Coefficient of determination (R2) in order to validate the accuracy of obtainable results. The calculated direct solar radiation was in a range of 491-505 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 8.41% for winter and 532-540 Watt/m2 with relative percentage error 4.89% for summer 2014. Additionally, dataset of seven continuous days, representing both seasons were considered with the MBD, RMSD and R2 of -0.08, 0.25, 0.86 and -0.14, 0.35, 3.29, respectively, which belong to Kumar model for winter and CSR model for summer. In summary, the determination of direct solar radiation based on atmospheric models and empirical equations could advantageously provide immediate and reliable values of the solar components for any site in the region without a constraint of actual measurement.

Keywords: atmospheric physics models, astronomical parameters, atmospheric parameters, clear sky condition

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7424 Sensitive Analysis of the ZF Model for ABC Multi Criteria Inventory Classification

Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

The ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on the Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to take into account other important criteria. From these models, we will consider the ZF model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index can affect the ABC items classification. We will then focus on the weights assigned to each index and propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model

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7423 Comparative Study and Parallel Implementation of Stochastic Models for Pricing of European Options Portfolios using Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

Abstract:

Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
7422 Dielectric Study of Ethanol Water Mixtures at Different Concentration Using Hollow Channel Cantilever Platform

Authors: Maryam S. Ghoraishi, John E. Hawk, Thomas Thundat

Abstract:

Understanding liquid properties in small scale has become important in recent decades as immerging new microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices have been widely used for micro pumps, drug delivery, and many other laboratory-on-microchips analysis. Often in microfluidic devices, fluids are transported electrokinetically. Therefore, extensive knowledge of fluid flow, heat transport, electrokinetics and electrochemistry are key to successful lab on a chip design. Among different microfluidic devices, recently developed hollow channel cantilever offers an ideal platform to study different fluid properties simultaneously without drastic decrease in quality factor which normally occurs when traditional cantilevers operate in the liquid phase. Using hollow channel cantilever, we monitor changes in density and viscosity of liquid while simultaneously investigating dielectric properties of alcohol water binary mixtures. Considerable research has been conducted on alcohol-water mixtures since such a mixture is a typical prototype for biomolecules, Micelle formation, and structural stability of proteins (to name a few). Here we show that hollow channel cantilever can be employed to investigate dielectric properties of ethanol/water mixtures in different concentrations. We study dynamic amplitude shifts of hollow channel cantilever oscillation at different concentrations of ethanol/water for different voltages. Our results show how interactions between solute and solvent, and possibly cluster formation, could change dielectric properties and dipole reorientation of the mixture, as well as the resulting force on the hollow cantilever. For comparison, we also examine higher conductivity ionic mixtures of sodium sulfate solution under the same conditions as low conductivity ethanol/water mixtures. We will show the results from systematic investigation of solvent effects on dielectric properties of the binary mixture. We will also address the question of resolution limits in dielectric study of analyte molecules imposed by solvent concentrations.

Keywords: dielectric constant, cantilever sensors, ethanol water mixtures, low frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
7421 Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Students’ Academic Performance and Study Strategies Based on Their Motivation

Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

Abstract:

This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

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7420 Comparison of Unit Hydrograph Models to Simulate Flood Events at the Field Scale

Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

Abstract:

To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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7419 High-Accuracy Satellite Image Analysis and Rapid DSM Extraction for Urban Environment Evaluations (Tripoli-Libya)

Authors: Abdunaser Abduelmula, Maria Luisa M. Bastos, José A. Gonçalves

Abstract:

The modeling of the earth's surface and evaluation of urban environment, with 3D models, is an important research topic. New stereo capabilities of high-resolution optical satellites images, such as the tri-stereo mode of Pleiades, combined with new image matching algorithms, are now available and can be applied in urban area analysis. In addition, photogrammetry software packages gained new, more efficient matching algorithms, such as SGM, as well as improved filters to deal with shadow areas, can achieve denser and more precise results. This paper describes a comparison between 3D data extracted from tri-stereo and dual stereo satellite images, combined with pixel based matching and Wallis filter. The aim was to improve the accuracy of 3D models especially in urban areas, in order to assess if satellite images are appropriate for a rapid evaluation of urban environments. The results showed that 3D models achieved by Pleiades tri-stereo outperformed, both in terms of accuracy and detail, the result obtained from a Geo-eye pair. The assessment was made with reference digital surface models derived from high-resolution aerial photography. This could mean that tri-stereo images can be successfully used for the proposed urban change analyses.

Keywords: 3D models, environment, matching, pleiades

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7418 Investigation of Ignition Delay for Low Molecular Hydrocarbon Fuel and Oxygen Mixture behind the Reflected Shock

Authors: K. R. Guna, Aldin Justin Sundararaj, B. C. Pillai, A. N. Subash

Abstract:

A systematic study has been made for ignition delay times measurement behind a reflected shock wave for the low molecular weight hydrocarbon fuel in argon simulated gas mixtures. The low molecular hydrocarbon fuel–oxygen was diluted with argon for desired concentration is taken for the study. The suitability of the shock tube for measuring the ignition delay time is demonstrated by measuring the ignition delay for the liquefied petroleum gas for equivalence ratios (ф=0.5 & 1) in the temperature range 1150-1650 K. The pressure range was fixed from 5-15 bar. The ignition delay was measured by recording the ignition-induced pressure jump and emission from CH radical simultaneously. From conducting experiments, it was found that the ignition delay time for liquefied petroleum gas reduces with increase in temperature. The shock tube was calibrated for ethane-oxygen gas mixture and the results obtained from this study is compared with the earlier reported values and found to be comparably well suited for the measurement of ignition delay times. The above work was carried out using the shock tube facility at propulsion and high enthalpy laboratory, Karunya University.

Keywords: ignition delay, LPG, reflected shock, shock wave

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7417 Poisson Type Spherically Symmetric Spacetimes

Authors: Gonzalo García-Reyes

Abstract:

Conformastat spherically symmetric exact solutions of Einstein's field equations representing matter distributions made of fluid both perfect and anisotropic from given solutions of Poisson's equation of Newtonian gravity are investigated. The approach is used in the construction of new relativistic models of thick spherical shells and three-component models of galaxies (bulge, disk, and dark matter halo), writing, in this case, the metric in cylindrical coordinates. In addition, the circular motion of test particles (rotation curves) along geodesics on the equatorial plane of matter configurations and the stability of the orbits against radial perturbations are studied. The models constructed satisfy all the energy conditions.

Keywords: general relativity, exact solutions, spherical symmetry, galaxy, kinematics and dynamics, dark matter

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7416 Size Effect on Shear Strength of Slender Reinforced Concrete Beams

Authors: Subhan Ahmad, Pradeep Bhargava, Ajay Chourasia

Abstract:

Shear failure in reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement leads to loss of property and life since a very little or no warning occurs before failure as in case of flexural failure. Shear strength of reinforced concrete beams decreases as its depth increases. This phenomenon is generally called as the size effect. In this paper, a comparative analysis is performed to estimate the performance of shear strength models in capturing the size effect of reinforced concrete beams made with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete. Four shear strength models that account for the size effect in shear are selected from the literature and applied on the datasets of slender reinforced concrete beams. Beams prepared with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete are considered for the analysis. Results showed that all the four models captured the size effect in shear effectively and produced conservative estimates of the shear strength for beams made with normal strength conventional concrete. These models yielded unconservative estimates for high strength conventional concrete beams with larger effective depths ( > 450 mm). Model of Bazant and Kim (1984) captured the size effect precisely and produced conservative estimates of shear strength of self-compacting concrete beams at all the effective depths. Also, shear strength models considered in this study produced unconservative estimates of shear strength for recycled aggregate concrete beams at all effective depths.

Keywords: reinforced concrete beams; shear strength; prediction models; size effect

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7415 Modeling Pan Evaporation Using Intelligent Methods of ANN, LSSVM and Tree Model M5 (Case Study: Shahroud and Mayamey Stations)

Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

Abstract:

The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

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7414 Multilevel Modeling of the Progression of HIV/AIDS Disease among Patients under HAART Treatment

Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

Abstract:

HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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7413 Impact of Data and Model Choices to Urban Flood Risk Assessments

Authors: Abhishek Saha, Serene Tay, Gerard Pijcke

Abstract:

The availability of high-resolution topography and rainfall information in urban areas has made it necessary to revise modeling approaches used for simulating flood risk assessments. Lidar derived elevation models that have 1m or lower resolutions are becoming widely accessible. The classical approaches of 1D-2D flow models where channel flow is simulated and coupled with a coarse resolution 2D overland flow models may not fully utilize the information provided by high-resolution data. In this context, a study was undertaken to compare three different modeling approaches to simulate flooding in an urban area. The first model used is the base model used is Sobek, which uses 1D model formulation together with hydrologic boundary conditions and couples with an overland flow model in 2D. The second model uses a full 2D model for the entire area with shallow water equations at the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM). These models are compared against another shallow water equation solver in 2D, which uses a subgrid method for grid refinement. These models are simulated for different horizontal resolutions of DEM varying between 1m to 5m. The results show a significant difference in inundation extents and water levels for different DEMs. They are also sensitive to the different numerical models with the same physical parameters, such as friction. The study shows the importance of having reliable field observations of inundation extents and levels before a choice of model and data can be made for spatial flood risk assessments.

Keywords: flooding, DEM, shallow water equations, subgrid

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7412 CFD Analysis of Flow Regimes of Non-Newtonian Liquids in Chemical Reactor

Authors: Nenashev Yaroslav, Russkin Oleg

Abstract:

The mixing process is one of the most important and critical stages in many industrial sectors, such as chemistry, pharmaceuticals, and the food industry. When designing equipment with mixing impellers, technology developers often encounter working environments with complex physical properties and rheology. In such cases, the use of computational fluid dynamics tools is an excellent solution to mitigate risks and ensure the stable operation of the equipment. The research focuses on one of the designed reactors with mixing impellers intended for polymer synthesis. The study describes an approach to modeling reactors of similar configurations, taking into account the complex properties of the mixed liquids using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. To achieve this goal, a complex 3D model was created, accurately replicating the functionality of chemical equipment. The model allows for the assessment of the hydrodynamic behavior of the reaction mixture inside the reactor, consideration of heat release due to the reaction, and the heat exchange between the reaction mixture and the cooling medium. The results indicate that the choice of the type and size of the mixing device significantly affects the efficiency of the mixing process inside the chemical reactor.

Keywords: CFD, mixing, blending, chemical reactor, non-Newton liquids, polymers

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7411 Comparison of Real-Time PCR and FTIR with Chemometrics Technique in Analysing Halal Supplement Capsules

Authors: Mohd Sukri Hassan, Ahlam Inayatullah Badrul Munir, M. Husaini A. Rahman

Abstract:

Halal authentication and verification in supplement capsules are highly required as the gelatine available in the market can be from halal or non-halal sources. It is an obligation for Muslim to consume and use the halal consumer goods. At present, real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the most common technique being used for the detection of porcine and bovine DNA in gelatine due to high sensitivity of the technique and higher stability of DNA compared to protein. In this study, twenty samples of supplements capsules from different products with different Halal logos were analyzed for porcine and bovine DNA using RT-PCR. Standard bovine and porcine gelatine from eurofins at a range of concentration from 10-1 to 10-5 ng/µl were used to determine the linearity range, limit of detection and specificity on RT-PCR (SYBR Green method). RT-PCR detected porcine (two samples), bovine (four samples) and mixture of porcine and bovine (six samples). The samples were also tested using FT-IR technique where normalized peak of IR spectra were pre-processed using Savitsky Golay method before Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was performed on the database. Scores plot of PCA shows three clusters of samples; bovine, porcine and mixture (bovine and porcine). The RT-PCR and FT-IR with chemometrics technique were found to give same results for porcine gelatine samples which can be used for Halal authentication.

Keywords: halal, real-time PCR, gelatine, chemometrics

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7410 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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7409 Exploring Time-Series Phosphoproteomic Datasets in the Context of Network Models

Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

Abstract:

Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

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7408 Optical and Double Folding Analysis for 6Li+16O Elastic Scattering

Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

Abstract:

Available experimental angular distributions for 6Li elastically scattered from 16O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor NR for 6Li+16O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution

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7407 An Interpretable Data-Driven Approach for the Stratification of the Cardiorespiratory Fitness

Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

Abstract:

The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

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7406 Improving the Analytical Power of Dynamic DEA Models, by the Consideration of the Shape of the Distribution of Inputs/Outputs Data: A Linear Piecewise Decomposition Approach

Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

Abstract:

In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis, DDEA, piecewise linear inputs, piecewise linear outputs

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7405 Models of Copyrights System

Authors: A. G. Matveev

Abstract:

The copyrights system is a combination of different elements. The number, content and the correlation of these elements are different for different legal orders. The models of copyrights systems display this system in terms of the interaction of economic and author's moral rights. Monistic and dualistic models are the most popular ones. The article deals with different points of view on the monism and dualism in copyright system. A specific model of the copyright in Switzerland in the XXth century is analyzed. The evolution of a French dualistic model of copyright is shown. The author believes that one should talk not about one, but rather about a number of dualism forms of copyright system.

Keywords: copyright, exclusive copyright, economic rights, author's moral rights, rights of personality, monistic model, dualistic model

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7404 Semantic Textual Similarity on Contracts: Exploring Multiple Negative Ranking Losses for Sentence Transformers

Authors: Yogendra Sisodia

Abstract:

Researchers are becoming more interested in extracting useful information from legal documents thanks to the development of large-scale language models in natural language processing (NLP), and deep learning has accelerated the creation of powerful text mining models. Legal fields like contracts benefit greatly from semantic text search since it makes it quick and easy to find related clauses. After collecting sentence embeddings, it is relatively simple to locate sentences with a comparable meaning throughout the entire legal corpus. The author of this research investigated two pre-trained language models for this task: MiniLM and Roberta, and further fine-tuned them on Legal Contracts. The author used Multiple Negative Ranking Loss for the creation of sentence transformers. The fine-tuned language models and sentence transformers showed promising results.

Keywords: legal contracts, multiple negative ranking loss, natural language inference, sentence transformers, semantic textual similarity

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
7403 Pilot Induced Oscillations Adaptive Suppression in Fly-By-Wire Systems

Authors: Herlandson C. Moura, Jorge H. Bidinotto, Eduardo M. Belo

Abstract:

The present work proposes the development of an adaptive control system which enables the suppression of Pilot Induced Oscillations (PIO) in Digital Fly-By-Wire (DFBW) aircrafts. The proposed system consists of a Modified Model Reference Adaptive Control (M-MRAC) integrated with the Gain Scheduling technique. The PIO oscillations are detected using a Real Time Oscillation Verifier (ROVER) algorithm, which then enables the system to switch between two reference models; one in PIO condition, with low proneness to the phenomenon and another one in normal condition, with high (or medium) proneness. The reference models are defined in a closed loop condition using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) control methodology for Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems. The implemented algorithms are simulated in software implementations with state space models and commercial flight simulators as the controlled elements and with pilot dynamics models. A sequence of pitch angles is considered as the reference signal, named as Synthetic Task (Syntask), which must be tracked by the pilot models. The initial outcomes show that the proposed system can detect and suppress (or mitigate) the PIO oscillations in real time before it reaches high amplitudes.

Keywords: adaptive control, digital Fly-By-Wire, oscillations suppression, PIO

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
7402 The Use of AI to Measure Gross National Happiness

Authors: Riona Dighe

Abstract:

This research attempts to identify an alternative approach to the measurement of Gross National Happiness (GNH). It uses artificial intelligence (AI), incorporating natural language processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis to measure GNH. We use ‘off the shelf’ NLP models responsible for the sentiment analysis of a sentence as a building block for this research. We constructed an algorithm using NLP models to derive a sentiment analysis score against sentences. This was then tested against a sample of 20 respondents to derive a sentiment analysis score. The scores generated resembled human responses. By utilising the MLP classifier, decision tree, linear model, and K-nearest neighbors, we were able to obtain a test accuracy of 89.97%, 54.63%, 52.13%, and 47.9%, respectively. This gave us the confidence to use the NLP models against sentences in websites to measure the GNH of a country.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, NLP, sentiment analysis, gross national happiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
7401 Deep Learning for Renewable Power Forecasting: An Approach Using LSTM Neural Networks

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 249
7400 Predict Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Artificial Neural Networks Technique: Case Study Oued El Abiod Watershed, Algeria

Authors: Adel Bougamouza, Boualam Remini, Abd El Hadi Ammari, Feteh Sakhraoui

Abstract:

The assessment of sediments being carried by a river is importance for planning and designing of various water resources projects. In this study, Artificial Neural Network Techniques are used to estimate the daily suspended sediment concentration for the corresponding daily discharge flow in the upstream of Foum El Gherza dam, Biskra, Algeria. The FFNN, GRNN, and RBNN models are established for estimating current suspended sediment values. Some statistics involving RMSE and R2 were used to evaluate the performance of applied models. The comparison of three AI models showed that the RBNN model performed better than the FFNN and GRNN models with R2 = 0.967 and RMSE= 5.313 mg/l. Therefore, the ANN model had capability to improve nonlinear relationships between discharge flow and suspended sediment with reasonable precision.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Oued Abiod watershed, feedforward network, generalized regression network, radial basis network, sediment concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 405