Search results for: Bayesian multilevel modeling

Authors: Arun Prabhakar

Abstract:

Threat modeling is an important activity carried out in the initial stages of the development lifecycle that helps in building proactive security measures in the product. Though there are many techniques and tools available today, one of the common challenges with the traditional methods is the lack of a systematic approach in identifying security threats. The proposed solution describes an organized model by defining ontologies that help in building patterns to enumerate threats. The concepts of graph theory are applied to build the pattern for discovering threats for any given scenario. This graph-based solution also brings in other benefits, making it a customizable and scalable model.

Keywords: directed acyclic graph, ontology, patterns, threat identification, threat modeling

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Authors: F. Clara Fang, Hernan Castaneda

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The Connecticut Department of Transportation (ConnDOT) has constructed four roundabouts in the State of Connecticut within the past ten years. VISSIM traffic simulation software was utilized to analyze these roundabouts during their design phase. The queue length and level of service observed in the field appear to be better than predicted by the VISSIM model. The objectives of this project are to: identify VISSIM input variables most critical to accurate modeling; recommend VISSIM calibration factors; and, provide other recommendations for roundabout traffic operations modeling. Traffic data were collected at these roundabouts using Miovision Technologies. Cameras were set up to capture vehicle circulating activity and entry behavior for two weekdays. A large sample size of filed data was analyzed to achieve accurate and statistically significant results. The data extracted from the videos include: vehicle circulating speed; critical gap estimated by Maximum Likelihood Method; peak hour volume; follow-up headway; travel time; and, vehicle queue length. A VISSIM simulation of existing roundabouts was built to compare both queue length and travel time predicted from simulation with measured in the field. The research investigated a variety of simulation parameters as calibration factors for describing driver behaviors at roundabouts. Among them, critical gap is the most effective calibration variable in roundabout simulation. It has a significant impact to queue length, particularly when the volume is higher. The results will improve the design of future roundabouts in Connecticut and provide decision makers with insights on the relationship between various choices and future performance.

Keywords: driver critical gap, roundabout analysis, simulation, VISSIM modeling

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Authors: Hadi Ardiny, Amir Mohammad Beigzadeh

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Through the utilization of a combination of various sensors and data fusion methods, the detection of potential nuclear threats can be significantly enhanced by extracting more information from different data. In this research, an experimental and modeling approach was employed to track a radioactive source by combining a surveillance camera and a radiation detector (NaI). To run this experiment, three mobile robots were utilized, with one of them equipped with a radioactive source. An algorithm was developed in identifying the contaminated robot through correlation between camera images and camera data. The computer vision method extracts the movements of all robots in the XY plane coordinate system, and the detector system records the gamma-ray count. The position of the robots and the corresponding count of the moving source were modeled using the MCNPX simulation code while considering the experimental geometry. The results demonstrated a high level of accuracy in finding and locating the target in both the simulation model and experimental measurement. The modeling techniques prove to be valuable in designing different scenarios and intelligent systems before initiating any experiments.

Keywords: nuclear threats, radiation detector, MCNPX simulation, modeling techniques, intelligent systems

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Authors: Motalleb Byzedi, Seyedeh Chaman Naderi Korvandan

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Regarding annual statistics of groundwater level resources about current piezometers at Qorveh plains, both ARMA & PARMA modeling methods were applied in this study by the using of SAMS software. Upon performing required tests, a model was used with minimum amount of Akaike information criteria and suitable model was selected for piezometers. Then it was possible to make necessary estimations by using these models for future fluctuations in each piezometer. According to the results, ARMA model had more facilities for modeling of aquifer. Also it was cleared that eastern parts of aquifer had more failures than other parts. Therefore it is necessary to prohibit critical parts along with more supervision on taking rates of wells.

Keywords: qorveh plain, groundwater level, ARMA, PARMA

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Authors: Serena Gomez, Raeesa Tanseen, Netra Shaligram, Nithin Francis, Sandesh B. J.

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The human gut consists of a community of microbes which has a lot of effects on human health disease. Metabolic modeling can help to predict relative populations of stable microbes and their effect on health disease. In order to study and visualize microbes in the human gut, we developed a tool that offers the following modules: Build a tool that can be used to perform Flux Balance Analysis for microbes in the human gut using the Artificial Bee Colony optimization algorithm. Run simulations for an individual microbe in different conditions, such as aerobic and anaerobic and visualize the results of these simulations.

Keywords: microbes, metabolic modeling, flux balance analysis, artificial bee colony

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Authors: Ghasem Sharifi, Hamed Shahmohamadi Ousaloo, Milad Azimi, Mehran Mirshams

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The ever-increasing use of satellites demands a search for increasingly accurate and reliable pointing systems. Reaction wheels are rotating devices used commonly for the attitude control of the spacecraft since provide a wide range of torque magnitude and high reliability. The numerical modeling of this device can significantly enhance the accuracy of the satellite control in space. Modeling the wheel rotation in the presence of the various frictions is one of the critical parts of this approach. This paper presents a Dynamic Model Control of a Reaction Wheel (DMCR) in the current control mode. In current-mode, the required current is delivered to the coils in order to achieve the desired torque. During this research, all the friction parameters as viscous and coulomb, motor coefficient, resistance and voltage constant are identified. In order to model identification of a reaction wheel, numerous varying current commands apply on the particular wheel to verify the estimated model. All the parameters of DMCR are identified by classical Levenberg-Marquardt (CLM) optimization method. The experimental results demonstrate that the developed model has an appropriate precise and can be used in the satellite control simulation.

Keywords: experimental modeling, friction parameters, model identification, reaction wheel

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Authors: Donald G. Danmeier, Gian Marco Pizzo, Matthew Brennan

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Although wetlands have been proposed as a green alternative to manage coastal flood hazards because of their capacity to adapt to sea level rise and provision of multiple ecological and social co-benefits, they are often overlooked due to challenges in quantifying the uncertainty and naturally, variability of these systems. This objective of this study was to quantify wave attenuation provided by a natural marsh surrounding a large oil refinery along the US Gulf Coast that has experienced steady erosion along the shoreward edge. The vegetation module of the SWAN was activated and coupled with a hydrodynamic model (DELFT3D) to capture two-way interactions between the changing water level and wavefield over the course of a storm event. Since the marsh response to relative sea level rise is difficult to predict, a range of future marsh morphologies is explored. Numerical results were examined to determine the amount of wave attenuation as a function of marsh extent and the relative contributions from white-capping, depth-limited wave breaking, bottom friction, and flexing of vegetation. In addition to the coupled DELFT3D-SWAN modeling of a storm event, an uncoupled SWAN-VEG model was applied to a simplified bathymetry to explore a larger experimental design space. The wave modeling revealed that the rate of wave attenuation reduces for higher surge but was still significant over a wide range of water levels and outboard wave heights. The results also provide insights to the minimum marsh extent required to fully realize the potential wave attenuation so the changing coastal hazards can be managed.

Keywords: green infrastructure, wave attenuation, wave modeling, wetland

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Authors: Vladimir A. Vinnikov

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The paper proposes a model of an inhomogeneous rock mass with initially random distribution of microcracks on mineral grain boundaries. It describes the behavior of cracks in a medium under the effect of thermal field, the medium heated instantaneously to a predetermined temperature. Crack growth occurs according to the concept of fracture mechanics provided that the stress intensity factor K exceeds the critical value of Kc. The modeling of thermally induced acoustic emission memory effects is based on the assumption that every event of crack nucleation or crack growth caused by heating is accompanied by a single acoustic emission event. Parameters of the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect produced by cyclic heating and cooling (with the temperature amplitude increasing from cycle to cycle) were calculated for several rock texture types (massive, banded, and disseminated). The study substantiates the adaptation of the proposed model to humidity interference with the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect. The influence of humidity on the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect in quasi-homogeneous and banded rocks is estimated. It is shown that such modeling allows the structure and texture of rocks to be taken into account and the influence of interference factors on the distinctness of the thermally induced acoustic emission memory effect to be estimated. The numerical modeling can be used to obtain information about the thermal impacts on rocks in the past and determine the degree of rock disturbance by means of non-destructive testing.

Keywords: degree of rock disturbance, non-destructive testing, thermally induced acoustic emission memory effects, structure and texture of rocks

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Authors: Cristian Patrascioiu, Loredana Negoita

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This paper is focused on modeling and simulation of the tubular heaters. The paper is structured in four parts: the structure of the tubular convection section, the heat transfer model, the adaptation of the mathematical model and the solving model. The main hypothesis of the heat transfer modeling is that the heat exchanger of the convective tubular heater is a lumped system. In the same time, the model uses the heat balance relations, Newton’s law and criteria relations. The numerical program achieved allows for the estimation of the burn gases outlet temperature and the heated flow outlet temperature.

Keywords: heat exchanger, mathematical modelling, nonlinear equation system, Newton-Raphson algorithm

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Authors: Miral Selim, May Haggag, Ibrahim Abotaleb

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The aging of transportation infrastructure presents significant challenges, particularly concerning the monitoring and maintenance of bridges. This study investigates the application of Random Forest algorithms for predictive modeling of bridge conditions, utilizing data from the US National Bridge Inventory (NBI). The research is significant as it aims to improve bridge management through data-driven insights that can enhance maintenance strategies and contribute to overall safety. Random Forest is chosen for its robustness, ability to handle complex, non-linear relationships among variables, and its effectiveness in feature importance evaluation. The study begins with comprehensive data collection and cleaning, followed by the identification of key variables influencing bridge condition ratings, including age, construction materials, environmental factors, and maintenance history. Random Forest is utilized to examine the relationships between these variables and the predicted bridge conditions. The dataset is divided into training and testing subsets to evaluate the model's performance. The findings demonstrate that the Random Forest model effectively enhances the understanding of factors affecting bridge conditions. By identifying bridges at greater risk of deterioration, the model facilitates proactive maintenance strategies, which can help avoid costly repairs and minimize service disruptions. Additionally, this research underscores the value of data-driven decision-making, enabling better resource allocation to prioritize maintenance efforts where they are most necessary. In summary, this study highlights the efficiency and applicability of Random Forest in predictive modeling for bridge management. Ultimately, these findings pave the way for more resilient and proactive management of bridge systems, ensuring their longevity and reliability for future use.

Keywords: data analysis, random forest, predictive modeling, bridge management

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Authors: Sven Tackenberg, Sönke Duckwitz, Andreas Petz, Christopher M. Schlick

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This paper introduces an extension to the well-established Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) to apply it to complex maintenance problems. The problem is to assign technicians to a team which has to process several tasks with multi-level skill requirements during a work shift. Here, several alternative activities for a task allow both, the temporal shift of activities or the reallocation of technicians and tools. As a result, switches from one valid work process variant to another can be considered and may be selected by the developed evolutionary algorithm based on the present skill level of technicians or the available tools. An additional complication of the observed scheduling problem is that the locations of the construction sites are only temporarily accessible during a day. Due to intensive rail traffic, the available time slots for maintenance and repair works are extremely short and are often distributed throughout the day. To identify efficient working periods, a first concept of a Bayesian network is introduced and is integrated into the extended RCPSP with pre-emptive and non-pre-emptive tasks. Thereby, the Bayesian network is used to calculate the probability of a maintenance task to be processed during a specific period of the shift. Focusing on the domain of maintenance of the railway infrastructure in metropolitan areas as the most unproductive implementation process at construction site, the paper illustrates how the extended RCPSP can be applied for maintenance planning support. A multi-criteria evolutionary algorithm with a problem representation is introduced which is capable of revising technician-task allocations, whereas the duration of the task may be stochastic. The approach uses a novel activity list representation to ensure easily describable and modifiable elements which can be converted into detailed shift schedules. Thereby, the main objective is to develop a shift plan which maximizes the utilization of each technician due to a minimization of the waiting times caused by rail traffic. The results of the already implemented core algorithm illustrate a fast convergence towards an optimal team composition for a shift, an efficient sequence of tasks and a high probability of the subsequent implementation due to the stochastic durations of the tasks. In the paper, the algorithm for the extended RCPSP is analyzed in experimental evaluation using real-world example problems with various size, resource complexity, tightness and so forth.

Keywords: maintenance management, scheduling, resource constrained project scheduling problem, genetic algorithms

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Authors: Saeed Zeinali, Nasser Talebbeydokhti, Mehdi Saeidian, Shahrad Vosough

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In this article, bathymetry changes have been studied as a case study for Larak Island, located in The South of Iran. The advanced 2D model of Mike21 has been used for this purpose. A simple procedure has been utilized in this model. First, the hydrodynamic (HD) module of Mike21 has been used to obtain the required output for sediment transport model (ST module). The ST module modeled the area for tidal currents only. Bed level changes are resulted by series of modeling for both HD and ST module in 3 months time step. The final bathymetry in each time step is used as the primary bathymetry for next time step. This consecutive procedure been continued until bathymetry for the year 2020 is obtained.

Keywords: bed level changes, Larak Island, hydrodynamic, sediment transport

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Authors: Jamel Boukhatem, Mouldi Djelassi

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Contrary to the existing literature generally focusing on the role played by Sukuk in enhancing investors' and shareholders' wealth, this paper sheds some light on the Sukuk wealth effect across all economic agents: households, government, and investors by implementing a two-period life-cycle model with overlapping generations to show whether Sukuk is net wealth. The main findings are threefold: i) the effect of a change in Sukuk issuances on the consumers’ utility level will be different from one generation to another, ii) an increase in taxes due to the increase in Sukuk and rents is covered by transfers made by the members of generation 1 in the form of inheritance, and iii) the existence of a positive relationship between the asset prices representative of Sukuk and the real activity.

Keywords: Sukuk, households, investors, overlapping generations model, wealth, modeling

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Authors: Mei-Chun Chang

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Due to digital transformation and social media development in recent years, various real-time interactive digital tools have been developed to meet the design demands for virtual reality avatars, which also promote digital content learners' active participation in the creation process. As a result, new social media design tools have the characteristics of intuitive operation with a simplified interface for fast production, from which works can be simply created. This study carried out observations, records, questionnaire surveys, and interviews on the creation and learning of visual avatars made by students of the National Taiwan University of Science and Technology (NTUST) with the VRoid Studio 3D modeling tool so as to explore their learning effectiveness on the design of visual avatars. According to the results of this study, the VRoid Studio 3D character modeling tool has a positive impact on the learners and helps to improve their learning effectiveness. Students with low academic achievements said that they could complete the conceived modeling with their own thinking by using the design tool, which increased their sense of accomplishment. Conclusions are drawn according to the results, and relevant future suggestions are put forward.

Keywords: virtual avatar, character design, social media, vroid studio, creation, digital learning

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: K. Passbakhsh

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Determination of reinforcement forces is one of the most important and main discussions in designing retaining walls. By determining these forces we refrain from conservative planning. By numerically modeling the reinforced soil retaining walls under dynamic loading reinforcement forces can be calculated. In this study we try to approach the gained forces by pseudo-static method according to FHWA code and gained forces from numerical modeling by finite element method, by selecting seismic horizontal coefficient for different wall height. PLAXIS software was used for numerical analysis. Then the effect of reinforcement stiffness and soil type on reinforcement forces is examined.

Keywords: reinforced soil, PLAXIS, reinforcement forces, retaining walls

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Authors: Rouaz Idriss, Bourahla Nour-Eddine, Kahlouche Farah, Rafa Sid Ali

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The stability of structures made of light-gauge steel depends highly on the contribution of Shear Wall Panel (SWP) systems under horizontal forces due to wind or earthquake loads. Steel plate sheathing is often used with these panels made of cold formed steel (CFS) to improve its shear strength. In order to predict the shear strength resistance, two methods are presented in this paper. In the first method, the steel plate sheathing is modeled with plats strip taking into account only the tension and compression force due to the horizontal load, where both track and stud are modeled according to the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the specimen used in the experiments. The theoretical background and empirical formulations of this method are presented in this paper. However, the second method is based on a micro modeling of the cold formed steel Shear Wall Panel “CFS-SWP” using Abaqus software. A nonlinear analysis was carried out with an in-plan monotonic load. Finally, the comparison between these two methods shows that the micro modeling with Abaqus gives better prediction of shear resistance of SWP than strips method. However, the latter is easier and less time consuming than the micro modeling method.

Keywords: cold formed steel 'CFS', shear wall panel, strip method, finite elements

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Authors: Furkan Ozkan, M. Selcuk Arslan, Hatice Mercan

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Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular asa sustainable alternative to traditional combustion engine vehicles. However, to fully realize the potential of EVs in reducing environmental impact and energy consumption, efficient control strategies are essential. This study explores the application of green wave control using model predictive control for electric vehicles, coupled with energy consumption modeling using neural networks. The use of MPC allows for real-time optimization of the vehicles’ energy consumption while considering dynamic traffic conditions. By leveraging neural networks for energy consumption modeling, the EV's performance can be further enhanced through accurate predictions and adaptive control. The integration of these advanced control and modeling techniques aims to maximize energy efficiency and range while navigating urban traffic scenarios. The findings of this research offer valuable insights into the potential of green wave control for electric vehicles and demonstrate the significance of integrating MPC and neural network modeling for optimizing energy consumption. This work contributes to the advancement of sustainable transportation systems and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. To evaluate the effectiveness of the green wave control strategy in real-world urban environments, extensive simulations were conducted using a high-fidelity vehicle model and realistic traffic scenarios. The results indicate that the integration of model predictive control and energy consumption modeling with neural networks had a significant impact on the energy efficiency and range of electric vehicles. Through the use of MPC, the electric vehicle was able to adapt its speed and acceleration profile in realtime to optimize energy consumption while maintaining travel time objectives. The neural network-based energy consumption modeling provided accurate predictions, enabling the vehicle to anticipate and respond to variations in traffic flow, further enhancing energy efficiency and range. Furthermore, the study revealed that the green wave control strategy not only reduced energy consumption but also improved the overall driving experience by minimizing abrupt acceleration and deceleration, leading to a smoother and more comfortable ride for passengers. These results demonstrate the potential for green wave control to revolutionize urban transportation by enhancing the performance of electric vehicles and contributing to a more sustainable and efficient mobility ecosystem.

Keywords: electric vehicles, energy efficiency, green wave control, model predictive control, neural networks

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Authors: V. Pourmostaghimi, M. Zadshakoyan

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Efficiency and productivity of the finish hard turning can be enhanced impressively by utilizing accurate predictive models for cutting tool wear. However, the ability of genetic programming in presenting an accurate analytical model is a notable characteristic which makes it more applicable than other predictive modeling methods. In this paper, the genetic equation for modeling of tool flank wear is developed with the use of the experimentally measured flank wear values and genetic programming during finish turning of hardened AISI D2. Series of tests were conducted over a range of cutting parameters and the values of tool flank wear were measured. On the basis of obtained results, genetic model presenting connection between cutting parameters and tool flank wear were extracted. The accuracy of the genetically obtained model was assessed by using two statistical measures, which were root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). Evaluation results revealed that presented genetic model predicted flank wear over the study area accurately (R² = 0.9902 and RMSE = 0.0102). These results allow concluding that the proposed genetic equation corresponds well with experimental data and can be implemented in real industrial applications.

Keywords: cutting parameters, flank wear, genetic programming, hard turning

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Authors: Soulayma Smirani, Mourad Aidi, Taoufik Aguili

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Energy harvesting has arisen as a prominent research area for low power delivery to RF devices. Rectennas have become a key element in this technology. In this paper, electromagnetic modeling of a rectenna system is presented. In our approach, a hybrid technique was demonstrated to associate both the method of auxiliary sources (MAS) and MoM-GEC (the method of moments combined with the generalized equivalent circuit technique). Auxiliary sources were used in order to substitute specific electronic devices. Therefore, a simple and controllable model is obtained. Also, it can easily be interconnected to form different topologies of rectenna arrays for more energy harvesting. At last, simulation results show the feasibility and simplicity of the proposed rectenna model with high precision and computation efficiency.

Keywords: computational electromagnetics, MoM-GEC method, rectennas, RF energy harvesting

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Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

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Modeling users’ decisions on departure time choice is the main motivation for this research. In particular, it examines the impact of social-demographic features, household, job characteristics and trip qualities on individuals’ departure time choice. Departure time alternatives are presented as adjacent discrete time periods. The choice between these alternatives is done using a discrete choice model. Since a great deal of early morning trips and traffic congestion at that time of the day comprise work trips, the focus of this study is on the work trip over the entire day. Therefore, this study by using the users’ stated preference in questionnaire models users’ departure time choice affected by congestion pricing schemes in high traffic suburban entrance roads of Tehran. The results demonstrate efficient social-demographic impact on work trips’ departure time. These findings have substantial outcomes for the analysis of transportation planning. Particularly, the analysis shows that ignoring the effects of these variables could result in erroneous information and consequently decisions in the field of transportation planning and air quality would fail and cause financial resources loss.

Keywords: congestion pricing, departure time, modeling, travel timing, time of the day, transportation planning

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The modeling of a spatial-economic database is crucial in recitation economic network structure to social development. Sustainability within the spatial-economic model gives attention to green businesses to comply with Earth’s Systems. The natural exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy and materials flow in systems ecology. When network topology influences formal and informal communication to function in systems ecology, ecosystems are postulated to valence the basic level of spatial sustainable outcome (i.e., project compatibility success). These referred instrumentalities impact various aspects of the second level of spatial sustainable outcomes (i.e., participant social security satisfaction). The sustainability outcomes are modeling composite structure based on a network analysis model to calculate the prosperity of panel databases for efficiency value, from 2005 to 2025. The database is modeling spatial structure to represent state-of-the-art value-orientation impact and corresponding complexity of sustainability issues (e.g., build a consistent database necessary to approach spatial structure; construct the spatial-economic-ecological model; develop a set of sustainability indicators associated with the model; allow quantification of social, economic and environmental impact; use the value-orientation as a set of important sustainability policy measures), and demonstrate spatial structure reliability. The structure of spatial-ecological model is established for management schemes from the perspective pollutants of multiple sources through the input–output criteria. These criteria evaluate the spillover effect to conduct Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis in a unique spatial structure. The balance within “equilibrium patterns,” such as collective biosphere features, has a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. The following have a dynamic structure related to physical and chemical properties for gradual prolong to incremental patterns. While these spatial structures argue from ecological modeling of resource savings, static loads are not decisive from an artistic/architectural perspective. The model attempts to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for the development of urban environments in a relational database setting, using optimization software to integrate spatial structure where the process is based on the engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: ecological modeling, spatial structure, orientation impact, composite index, industrial ecology

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Authors: Sina Saadati, Mohammadreza Razzazi

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In this article, we have tried to present an agent-based model of human muscle. A suitable model of muscle is necessary for the analysis of mankind's movements. It can be used by clinical researchers who study the influence of motion sicknesses, like Parkinson's disease. It is also useful in the development of a prosthesis that receives the electromyography signals and generates force as a reaction. Since we have focused on computational efficiency in this research, the model can compute the calculations very fast. As far as it concerns prostheses, the model can be known as a charge-efficient method. In this paper, we are about to illustrate an agent-based model. Then, we will use it to simulate the human gait cycle. This method can also be done reversely in the analysis of gait in motion sicknesses.

Keywords: agent-based modeling and simulation, human muscle, gait cycle, motion sickness

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Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar, Chirag Gupta

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This work presents a comprehensive study on the employment of Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a three-phase voltage-source inverter to regulate the output voltage efficiently. The inverter is modeled via the Clarke Transformation, considering a scenario where the load is unknown. An LC filter model is developed, demonstrating its efficacy in Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) reduction. The system, when implemented with fault-tolerant multilevel inverter topologies, ensures reliable operation even under fault conditions, a requirement that is paramount with the increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. The research also integrates a Fuzzy Logic based fault tolerance system which identifies and manages faults, ensuring consistent inverter performance. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated through rigorous simulations and comparative results, shedding light on the voltage prediction efficiency and the robustness of the model even under fault conditions.

Keywords: total harmonic distortion, fuzzy logic, renewable energy sources, MLI

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Virendra J. Majarikar, Harikrishnan N. Unni

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This paper sets to demonstrate a modeling of electrokinetic mixing employing electroosmotic stationary and time-dependent microchannel using alternate zeta patches on the lower surface of the micromixer in a lab on chip microfluidic device. Electroosmotic flow is amplified using different 2D and 3D model designs with alternate and geometric zeta potential values such as 25, 50, and 100 mV, respectively, to achieve high concentration mixing in the electrokinetically-driven microfluidic system. The enhancement of electrokinetic mixing is studied using Finite Element Modeling, and simulation workflow is accomplished with defined integral steps. It can be observed that the presence of alternate zeta patches can help inducing microvortex flows inside the channel, which in turn can improve mixing efficiency. Fluid flow and concentration fields are simulated by solving Navier-Stokes equation (implying Helmholtz-Smoluchowski slip velocity boundary condition) and Convection-Diffusion equation. The effect of the magnitude of zeta potential, the number of alternate zeta patches, etc. are analysed thoroughly. 2D simulation reveals that there is a cumulative increase in concentration mixing, whereas 3D simulation differs slightly with low zeta potential as that of the 2D model within the T-shaped micromixer for concentration 1 mol/m³ and 0 mol/m³, respectively. Moreover, 2D model results were compared with those of 3D to indicate the importance of the 3D model in a microfluidic design process.

Keywords: COMSOL Multiphysics®, electrokinetic, electroosmotic, microfluidics, zeta potential

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Authors: Felix U. Asoiro, Kingsley O. Anyichie, Meshack I. Simeon, Chinenye E. Azuka

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The work was aimed at studying the effects of microwave drying (450 W) and hot air oven drying on the drying kinetics and physico-functional properties of yams and cocoyams species. The yams and cocoyams were cut into chips of thicknesses of 3mm, 5mm, 7mm, 9mm, and 11mm. The drying characteristics of yam and cocoyam chips were investigated under microwave drying and hot air oven temperatures (50oC – 90oC). Drying methods, temperature, and thickness had a significant effect on the drying characteristics and physico-functional properties of yam and cocoyam. The result of the experiment showed that an increase in the temperature increased the drying time. The result also showed that the microwave drying method took lesser time to dry the samples than the hot air oven drying method. The iodine affinity of starch for yam was higher than that of cocoyam for the microwaved dried samples over those of hot air oven-dried samples. The results of the analysis would be useful in modeling the drying behavior of yams and cocoyams under different drying methods. It could also be useful in the improvement of shelf life for yams and cocoyams as well as designs of efficient systems for drying, handling, storage, packaging, processing, and transportation of yams and cocoyams.

Keywords: coco yam, drying, microwave, modeling, energy consumption, iodine affinity, drying ate

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Authors: Csaba Tóth, Éva Lakatos, László Pethő, Seoyoung Cho

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The temperature effect on asphalt pavement structure is a crucial factor at the design stage. In this paper, by applying the German guidelines for temperature along the asphalt depth is estimated. The aim is to consider temperature profiles in different seasons in numerical modelling. The model is built with an elastic and isotropic solid element with 19 subdivisions of asphalt layers to reflect the temperature variation. Comparison with the simple three-layer pavement system (asphalt layers, base, and subgrade layers) will be followed to see the difference in result without temperature variation along with the depth. Finally, the fatigue life calculation was checked to prove the validity of the methodology of considering the temperature in the numerical modelling.

Keywords: temperature profile, flexible pavement modeling, finite element method, temperature modeling

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Authors: José M. Carmona, Diana Puigserver, Jofre Herrero

Abstract:

Chlorinated solvents belong to the group of nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPL) and have been involved in many contamination episodes. They are carcinogenic and recalcitrant pollutants that may be found in granular aquifers as: i) pools accumulated on low hydraulic conductivity layers; ii) immobile residual phase retained at the pore-scale by capillary forces; iii) dissolved phase in groundwater; iv) sorbed by particulate organic matter; and v) stored into the matrix of low hydraulic conductivity layers where they penetrated by molecular diffusion. The transition zone between granular aquifers and basal aquitards constitute the lowermost part of the aquifer and presents numerous fine-grained interbedded layers that give rise to significant textural contrasts. These layers condition the transport and fate of contaminants and lead to differences from the rest of the aquifer, given that: i) hydraulic conductivity of these layers is lower; ii) DNAPL tends to accumulate on them; iii) groundwater flow is slower in the transition zone and consequently pool dissolution is much slower; iv) sorbed concentrations are higher in the fine-grained layers because of their higher content in organic matter; v) a significant mass of pollutant penetrates into the matrix of these layers; and vi) this contaminant mass back-diffuses after remediation and the aquifer becomes contaminated again. Thus, contamination sources of chlorinated solvents are extremely more recalcitrant in transition zones, which has far-reaching implications for the environment. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal differences in the evolution of biogeochemical processes in the transition zone and in the rest of the aquifer. For this, an unconfined aquifer with a transition zone in the lower part was selected at Vilafant (NE Spain). This aquifer was contaminated by perchloroethylene (PCE) in the 80’s. Distribution of PCE and other chloroethenes in groundwater and porewater was analyzed in: a) conventional piezometers along the plume and in two multilevel wells at the source of contamination; and b) porewater of fine grained materials from cores recovered when drilled the two multilevel wells. Currently, the highest concentrations continue to be recorded in the source area in the transition zone. By contrast, the lowest concentrations in this area correspond to the central part of the aquifer, where flow velocities are higher and a greater washing of the residual phase initially retained has occurred. The major findings of the study were: i) PCE metabolites were detected in the transition zone, where conditions were more reducing than in the rest of the aquifer; ii) however, reductive dechlorination was partial since only the formation of cis-dicholoroethylene (DCE) was reached; iii) In the central part of the aquifer, where conditions were predominantly oxidizing, the presence of nitrate significantly hindered the reductive declination of PCE. The remediation strategies to be implemented should be directed to enhance dissolution of the source, especially in the transition zone, where it is more recalcitrant. For example, by combining chemical and bioremediation methods, already tested at the laboratory scale with groundwater and sediments of this site.

Keywords: chlorinated solvents, chloroethenes, DNAPL, partial reductive dechlorination, PCE, transition zone to basal aquitard

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