Search results for: online flood prediction system
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21275

Search results for: online flood prediction system

20675 Sensing to Respond & Recover in Emergency

Authors: Alok Kumar, Raviraj Patil

Abstract:

The ability to respond to an incident of a disastrous event in a vulnerable area is very crucial an aspect of emergency management. The ability to constantly predict the likelihood of an event along with its severity in an area and react to those significant events which are likely to have a high impact allows the authorities to respond by allocating resources optimally in a timely manner. It provides for measuring, monitoring, and modeling facilities that integrate underlying systems into one solution to improve operational efficiency, planning, and coordination. We were particularly involved in this innovative incubation work on the current state of research and development in collaboration. technologies & systems for a disaster.

Keywords: predictive analytics, advanced analytics, area flood likelihood model, area flood severity model, level of impact model, mortality score, economic loss score, resource allocation, crew allocation

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20674 The Potentials of Online Learning and the Challenges towards Its Adoption in Nigeria's Higher Institutions of Learning

Authors: Kuliya Muhammed

Abstract:

This paper examines the potentials of online learning and the challenges to its adoption in Nigeria’s higher institutions of learning. The research would assist in tackling the challenges of online learning adoption and enlighten institutions on the numerous benefits of online learning in Nigeria. The researcher used survey method for the study and questionnaires were used to obtain the needed data from 230 respondents cut across 20 higher institutions in the country. The findings revealed that online learning has the prospect to boost access to learning tools, assist students’ to learn from the comfort of their offices or homes, reduce the cost of learning, and enable individuals to gain self-knowledge. The major challenges in the adoption of e-learning are poor Information and Communication Technology infrastructures, poor internet connectivity where available, lack of Information and Communication Technology background, problem of power supply, lack of commitment by institutions, poor maintenance of Information and Communication Technology tools, inadequate facilities, lack of government funding and fraud. Recommendations were also made at the end of the research work.

Keywords: electronic, ICT, institution, internet, learning, technology

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20673 Rumour Containment Using Monitor Placement and Truth Propagation

Authors: Amrah Maryam

Abstract:

The emergence of online social networks (OSNs) has transformed the way we pursue and share information. On the one hand, OSNs provide great ease for the spreading of positive information while, on the other hand, they may also become a channel for the spreading of malicious rumors and misinformation throughout the social network. Thus, to assure the trustworthiness of OSNs to its users, it is of vital importance to detect the misinformation propagation in the network by placing network monitors. In this paper, we aim to place monitors near the suspected nodes with the intent to limit the diffusion of misinformation in the social network, and then we also detect the most significant nodes in the network for propagating true information in order to minimize the effect of already diffused misinformation. Thus, we initiate two heuristic monitor placement using articulation points and truth propagation using eigenvector centrality. Furthermore, to provide real-time workings of the system, we integrate both the monitor placement and truth propagation entities as well. To signify the effectiveness of the approaches, we have carried out the experiment and evaluation of Stanford datasets of online social networks.

Keywords: online social networks, monitor placement, independent cascade model, spread of misinformation

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20672 Hydrological Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products Using IHACRES Rainfall-Runoff Model over a Basin in Iran

Authors: Mahmoud Zakeri Niri, Saber Moazami, Arman Abdollahipour, Hossein Ghalkhani

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to hydrological evaluation of four widely-used satellite precipitation products named PERSIANN, TMPA-3B42V7, TMPA-3B42RT, and CMORPH over Zarinehrood basin in Iran. For this aim, at first, daily streamflow of Sarough-cahy river of Zarinehrood basin was simulated using IHACRES rainfall-runoff model with daily rain gauge and temperature as input data from 1988 to 2008. Then, the model was calibrated in two different periods through comparison the simulated discharge with the observed one at hydrometric stations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of satellite precipitation products in streamflow simulation, the calibrated model was validated using daily satellite rainfall estimates from the period of 2003 to 2008. The obtained results indicated that TMPA-3B42V7 with CC of 0.69, RMSE of 5.93 mm/day, MAE of 4.76 mm/day, and RBias of -5.39% performs better simulation of streamflow than those PERSIANN and CMORPH over the study area. It is noteworthy that in Iran, the availability of ground measuring station data is very limited because of the sparse density of hydro-meteorological networks. On the other hand, large spatial and temporal variability of precipitations and lack of a reliable and extensive observing system are the most important challenges to rainfall analysis, flood prediction, and other hydrological applications in this country.

Keywords: hydrological evaluation, IHACRES, satellite precipitation product, streamflow simulation

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20671 A Prediction Model Using the Price Cyclicality Function Optimized for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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20670 A Neural Network System for Predicting the Hardness of Titanium Aluminum Nitrite (TiAlN) Coatings

Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk

Abstract:

The cutting tool, in the high-speed machining process, is consistently dealing with high localized stress at the tool tip, tip temperature exceeds 800°C and the chip slides along the rake face. These conditions are affecting the tool wear, the cutting tool performances, the quality of the produced parts and the tool life. Therefore, a thin film coating on the cutting tool should be considered to improve the tool surface properties while maintaining its bulks properties. One of the general coating processes in applying thin film for hard coating purpose is PVD magnetron sputtering. In this paper, the prediction of the effects of PVD magnetron sputtering coating process parameters, sputter power in the range of (4.81-7.19 kW), bias voltage in the range of (50.00-300.00 Volts) and substrate temperature in the range of (281.08-600.00 °C), were studied using artificial neural network (ANN). The results were compared with previously published results using RSM model. It was found that the ANN is more accurate in prediction of tool hardness, and hence, it will not only improve the tool life of the tool but also significantly enhances the efficiency of the machining processes.

Keywords: artificial neural network, hardness, prediction, titanium aluminium nitrate coating

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20669 Technical Aspects of Closing the Loop in Depth-of-Anesthesia Control

Authors: Gorazd Karer

Abstract:

When performing a diagnostic procedure or surgery in general anesthesia (GA), a proper introduction and dosing of anesthetic agents are one of the main tasks of the anesthesiologist. However, depth of anesthesia (DoA) also seems to be a suitable process for closed-loop control implementation. To implement such a system, one must be able to acquire the relevant signals online and in real-time, as well as stream the calculated control signal to the infusion pump. However, during a procedure, patient monitors and infusion pumps are purposely unable to connect to an external (possibly medically unapproved) device for safety reasons, thus preventing closed-loop control. The paper proposes a conceptual solution to the aforementioned problem. First, it presents some important aspects of contemporary clinical practice. Next, it introduces the closed-loop-control-system structure and the relevant information flow. Focusing on transferring the data from the patient to the computer, it presents a non-invasive image-based system for signal acquisition from a patient monitor for online depth-of-anesthesia assessment. Furthermore, it introduces a UDP-based communication method that can be used for transmitting the calculated anesthetic inflow to the infusion pump. The proposed system is independent of a medical device manufacturer and is implemented in Matlab-Simulink, which can be conveniently used for DoA control implementation. The proposed scheme has been tested in a simulated GA setting and is ready to be evaluated in an operating theatre. However, the proposed system is only a step towards a proper closed-loop control system for DoA, which could routinely be used in clinical practice.

Keywords: closed-loop control, depth of anesthesia (DoA), modeling, optical signal acquisition, patient state index (PSi), UDP communication protocol

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20668 The Online Power of Values: Adolescents’ Values as Predicting Factors of Their Online Bystanders’ Behavior While Witnessing Cyberbullying

Authors: Sharon Cayzer-Haller, Shir Ginosar-Yaari, Ariel Knafo-Noam

Abstract:

The 21st century emerged as the digital century, and it is marked by a wide range of technological developments and changes, followed by potential changes in human communication skills. This technological revolution has changed human means of communication in many different ways: children and adolescents are spending much of their time in front of screens, participating in all sorts of online activities (even more so since the outbreak of COVID-19). The current study focuses on the role of values in adolescents' online bystanders' behavior. Values are cognitive, abstract representations of desirable goals that motivate behavior, and we hypothesized finding significant associations between specific values and differential online bystanders' feelings and behavior. Data was collected through online questionnaires that measured the participants' values, using Schwartz's short version of the Portrait Values Questionnaire (Schwartz, 2012). Participants’ online behavior was assessed in a questionnaire addressing reactions to situations of cyber shaming and cyberbullying, and specifically positive feelings and pro-social behavior (e.g., more supportive reactions) toward the victims, as opposed to different offensive behavioral reactions (such as laughing at the victim or ignoring the situation). Participants were recruited with a commercial research panel company, and 308 Israeli adolescents' values and online behavior were examined (mean age 15.2). As hypothesized, results show significant associations between self-transcendence values (universalism and benevolence) and conservation values (conformity, tradition, and security). These two groups of values were positively correlated with pro-social bystanders' feelings and behavior. On the opposite side of the values scale, the value of power was negatively associated with the participants' pro-social behavior, and positively associated with offensive behavioral reactions. Further research is needed, but we conclude that values serve as crucial guiding factors in directing adolescents' online feelings and behavior.

Keywords: adolescents, values, cyberbullying, online behavior, power

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20667 Efl Learner’s Perceptions of Online Learning and Motivation

Authors: Sonia Achour

Abstract:

Owing to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, the shift to online learning took place abruptly. Neither practitioners nor learners were prepared for this sudden move. Higher education providers were compelled to implement online courses on a very short notice. Sultan Qaboos University is one among these. The question of motivation attracted a great number of educators. A case study was carried out so as to shed some lights on students' perceptions towards virtual learning and how it influenced their motivation to learning. The data was collected by means of semi-structured interviews of a focused group of 16 students along with classroom observation over a 12 week period. Both interviews and class observation revealed that there was a general negative feeling about the online teaching platform and its impact on the learners' motivation. Several factors were identified, namely the absence of interaction, social isolation, inconsistency of instructional knowledge, unfamiliarity with the new learning environment, IT illiteracy, and teacher development. The researcher aims at demonstrating the effect of virtual classrooms on students' motivation to acquire L2. The findings may be used to inform future decisions about courses, curriculum design. And teacher development

Keywords: online learning, motivation, EFL context, virtual setting

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20666 Measuring Organizational Resiliency for Flood Response in Thailand

Authors: Sudha Arlikatti, Laura Siebeneck, Simon A. Andrew

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to measure organizational resiliency through five attributes namely, rapidity, redundancy, resourcefulness, and robustness and to provide recommendations for resiliency building in flood risk communities. The research was conducted in Thailand following the severe floods of 2011 triggered by Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The floods lasted over eight months starting in June 2011 affecting 65 of the country’s 76 provinces and over 12 million people. Funding from a US National Science Foundation grant was used to collect ephemeral data in rural (Ayutthaya), suburban (Pathum Thani), and urban (Bangkok) provinces of Thailand. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted in Thai with 44 contacts from public, private, and non-profit organizations including universities, schools, automobile companies, vendors, tourist agencies, monks from temples, faith based organizations, and government agencies. Multiple triangulations were used to analyze the data by identifying selective themes from the qualitative data, validated with quantitative data and news media reports. This helped to obtain a more comprehensive view of how organizations in different geographic settings varied in their understanding of what enhanced or hindered their resilience and consequently their speed and capacities to respond. The findings suggest that the urban province of Bangkok scored highest in resourcefulness, rapidity of response, robustness, and ability to rebound. This is not surprising considering that it is the country’s capital and the seat of government, economic, military and tourism sectors. However, contrary to expectations all 44 respondents noted that the rural province of Ayutthaya was the fastest to recover amongst the three. Its organizations scored high on redundancy and rapidity of response due to the strength of social networks, a flood disaster sub-culture due to annual flooding, and the help provided by monks from and faith based organizations. Organizations in the suburban community of Pathum Thani scored lowest on rapidity of response and resourcefulness due to limited and ambiguous warnings, lack of prior flood experience and controversies that government flood protection works like sandbagging favored the capital city of Bangkok over them. Such a micro-level examination of organizational resilience in rural, suburban and urban areas in a country through mixed methods studies has its merits in getting a nuanced understanding of the importance of disaster subcultures and religious norms for resilience. This can help refocus attention on the strengths of social networks and social capital, for flood mitigation.

Keywords: disaster subculture, flood response, organizational resilience, Thailand floods, religious beliefs and response, social capital and disasters

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20665 Research on Air pollution Spatiotemporal Forecast Model Based on LSTM

Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

Abstract:

At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

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20664 Challenges and Opportunities for Online Consumer Selling Process Development in Coming Years in World

Authors: Prakash Prajapati

Abstract:

E commerce is certainly one of the business alternatives that individual will have to analyze in the forthcoming years. E-commerce is said to bring about arched type conversion in the world for exchange market. Prognosis E-commerce is presenting dreadful business advancement in our country. Endorsed by ascending online user base & mobile phone presentation, Indian e-commerce has been splendid development in the last few years. Conceding India’s analytical dividend and spiraling internet admittance, the sector is contracted to scale higher heights. Although, India’s overall peddle opportunity is consequential, the sector is beset with some deliberate challenges. The current study has been proceeded to explore the present scenario, status & future advancement of e-commerce in India and review the challenges and opportunities of e-commerce in India.

Keywords: online selling, retail selling online, product process, business opportunity

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20663 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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20662 River's Bed Level Changing Pattern Due to Sedimentation, Case Study: Gash River, Kassala, Sudan

Authors: Faisal Ali, Hasssan Saad Mohammed Hilmi, Mustafa Mohamed, Shamseddin Musa

Abstract:

The Gash rivers an ephemeral river, it usually flows from July to September, it has a braided pattern with high sediment content, of 15200 ppm in suspension, and 360 kg/sec as bed load. The Gash river bed has an average slope of 1.3 m/Km. The objectives of this study were: assessing the Gash River bed level patterns; quantifying the annual variations in Gash bed level; and recommending a suitable method to reduce the sediment accumulation on the Gash River bed. The study covered temporally the period 1905-2013 using datasets included the Gash river flows, and the cross sections. The results showed that there is an increasing trend in the river bed of 5 cm3 per year. This is resulted in changing the behavior of the flood routing and consequently the flood hazard is tremendously increased in Kassala city.

Keywords: bed level, cross section, gash river, sedimentation

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20661 Using Technology to Enhance the Student Assessment Experience

Authors: Asim Qayyum, David Smith

Abstract:

The use of information tools is a common activity for students of any educational stage when they encounter online learning activities. Finding the relevant information for particular learning tasks is the topic of this paper as it investigates the use of information tools for a group of student participants. The paper describes and discusses the results with particular implications for use in higher education, and the findings suggest that improvement in assessment design and subsequent student learning may be achieved by structuring the purposefulness of information tools usage and online reading behaviors of university students.

Keywords: information tools, assessment, online learning, student assessment experience

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20660 Communication in Inclusive Education: A Qualitative Study in Poland

Authors: Klara Królewiak-Detsi, Anna Orylska, Anna Gorgolewska, Marta Boczkowska, Agata Graczykowska

Abstract:

This study investigates the communication between students and teachers in inclusive education in Poland. Specifically, we examine the communication and interaction of students with special educational needs during online learning compared to traditional face-to-face instruction. Our research questions are (1) how children with special educational needs communicate with their teachers and peers during online learning, and (2) what strategies can improve their communication skills. We conducted five focus groups with: (1) 55 children with special educational needs, (2) 65 typically developing pupils, (3) 28 professionals (psychologists and special education therapists), (4) 16 teachers, and (5) 16 parents of children with special educational needs. Our analysis focused on primary schools and used thematic analysis according to the 6-step procedure of Braun and Clarke. Our findings reveal that children with disabilities faced more difficulties communicating and interacting with others online than in face-to-face lessons. The online tools used for education were not adapted to the needs of children with disabilities, and schools lacked clear guidelines on how to pursue inclusive education online. Based on the results, we offer recommendations for online communication training and tools that are dedicated to children with special educational needs. Additionally, our results demonstrate that typically developing pupils are better in interpersonal relations and more often and effectively use social support. Children with special educational needs had similar emotional and communication challenges compared to their typically developing peers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of providing adequate support for the online education of children with special educational needs in inclusive classrooms.

Keywords: Inclusive education, Special educational needs, Social skills development, Online communication

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20659 Predicting the Frequencies of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Rainfall Events in the US Using a Machine-Learning Model

Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

Abstract:

Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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20658 The Synchronous Online Environment: Impact on Instructor’s Empathy

Authors: Lystra Huggins

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic affected all facets of life, including pedagogical strategies and perceptual experiences for both instructors and students. While there have also been many challenges and advantages to the online teaching and learning environment, when students’ cameras are on, the daily experiences of students’ lives have been magnified during synchronous online instruction and have served to humanize them in the classroom. This means that students’ everyday experiences, now often on display on ZOOM, allow instructors to see the realities of students. They include children running, spouses walking by parents cooking or sitting on the sofa following the lecture, students at their place of employment or driving from work, or having their classroom engagement interrupted by a delivery. Students’ backgrounds and spaces create unique dynamics during synchronous instruction, which offers a holistic view of them outside academia. This research explores whether witnessing students’ daily experiences leads to empathy from their instructors and whether it results in a greater understanding of students’ challenges and circumstances. Ultimately, it will amplify instructors’ stance on the advantages of students having their cameras on during synchronous online classes to develop a connection with the instructor and a more cohesive classroom environment.

Keywords: instructor’s empathy, synchronous class, asynchronous class, online environment

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20657 Regional Adjustment to the Analytical Attenuation Coefficient in the GMPM BSSA 14 for the Region of Spain

Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

Abstract:

There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

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20656 Artificial Intelligence Based Online Monitoring System for Cardiac Patient

Authors: Syed Qasim Gilani, Muhammad Umair, Muhammad Noman, Syed Bilawal Shah, Aqib Abbasi, Muhammad Waheed

Abstract:

Cardiovascular Diseases(CVD's) are the major cause of death in the world. The main reason for these deaths is the unavailability of first aid for heart failure. In many cases, patients die before reaching the hospital. We in this paper are presenting innovative online health service for Cardiac Patients. The proposed online health system has two ends. Users through device developed by us can communicate with their doctor through a mobile application. This interface provides them with first aid.Also by using this service, they have an easy interface with their doctors for attaining medical advice. According to the proposed system, we developed a device called Cardiac Care. Cardiac Care is a portable device which a patient can use at their home for monitoring heart condition. When a patient checks his/her heart condition, Electrocardiogram (ECG), Blood Pressure(BP), Temperature are sent to the central database. The severity of patients condition is checked using Artificial Intelligence Algorithm at the database. If the patient is suffering from the minor problem, our algorithm will suggest a prescription for patients. But if patient's condition is severe, patients record is sent to doctor through the mobile Android application. Doctor after reviewing patients condition suggests next step. If a doctor identifies the patient condition as critical, then the message is sent to the central database for sending an ambulance for the patient. Ambulance starts moving towards patient for bringing him/her to hospital. We have implemented this model at prototype level. This model will be life-saving for millions of people around the globe. According to this proposed model patients will be in contact with their doctors all the time.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, classification, electrocardiogram, blood pressure

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20655 Market Index Trend Prediction using Deep Learning and Risk Analysis

Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

Abstract:

Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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20654 A Pilot Study of Bangkok High School Students’ Satisfaction Towards Online Learning Platform During Covid-19 Pandemic

Authors: Aung Aung Kyi, Khin Khin Aye

Abstract:

The mode of teaching and learning has been changed dramatically due to the Covid-19 pandemic that made schools close and students may have been away from the campus. However, many schools all over the countries are helping students to facilitate e-learning through online teaching and learning platform. Regarding this, Sarasas bilingual school in Bangkok conducted the high school students’ satisfaction survey since it is important for every school to improve its quality of education that must meet the students' need. For the good of the school's reputation, the purpose of the study is to examine the level of satisfaction that enhances the best services in the future. This study applied random sampling techniques and the data were collected using a self-administered survey. Descriptive analysis and independent sample t-tests were used to measure the importance of satisfaction components. The results showed G-11 (A) students were extremely satisfied with “Accessibility of course resources and materials through online platform” and “Ontime homework submission” while G-11 (B) students were extremely satisfied with “Teacher assisted with guiding my learning activities” and “Course teacher for this online course interacted with me in a timely fashion”. Additionally, they were also satisfied with a clear understanding of the teacher’s introduction during online learning. A significant difference in the satisfaction was observed between G-11 (A) and G-11 (B) students in terms of “A clear understanding on introduction was given by the teacher at the beginning of this online course”(P=0.03), “Teacher assisted with guiding my learning activities” (P=0.003), and “Comfortable surrounding during online learning” (P=0.02). With regard to gender, it has been seen that female high school students were extremely satisfied with the amount of course interaction with their teacher and her guidance with learning activities during online learning. By understanding the survey assessment, schools can improve their quality of education through the best digital educational platform that helps satisfy their students in the future.

Keywords: Bangkok high school students., covid-19 pandemic, online learning platform, satisfaction

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20653 Teaching Writing in the Virtual Classroom: Challenges and the Way Forward

Authors: Upeksha Jayasuriya

Abstract:

The sudden transition from onsite to online teaching/learning due to the COVID-19 pandemic called for a need to incorporate feasible as well as effective methods of online teaching in most developing countries like Sri Lanka. The English as a Second Language (ESL) classroom faces specific challenges in this adaptation, and teaching writing can be identified as the most challenging task compared to teaching the other three skills. This study was therefore carried out to explore the challenges of teaching writing online and to provide effective means of overcoming them while taking into consideration the attitudes of students and teachers with regard to learning/teaching English writing via online platforms. A survey questionnaire was distributed (electronically) among 60 students from the University of Colombo, the University of Kelaniya, and The Open University in order to find out the challenges faced by students, while in-depth interviews were conducted with 12 lecturers from the mentioned universities. The findings reveal that the inability to observe students’ writing and to receive real-time feedback discourage students from engaging in writing activities when taught online. It was also discovered that both students and teachers increasingly prefer Google Slides over other platforms such as Padlet, Linoit, and Jam Board as it boosts learner autonomy and student-teacher interaction, which in turn allows real-time formative feedback, observation of student work, and assessment. Accordingly, it can be recommended that teaching writing online can be better facilitated by using interactive platforms such as Google Slides, for it promotes active learning and student engagement in the ESL class.

Keywords: ESL, teaching writing, online teaching, active learning, student engagement

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20652 Research Methods and Design Strategies to Improve Resilience in Coastal and Estuary Cities

Authors: Irene Perez Lopez

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Delta and estuary cities are spaces constantly evolving, incessantly altered by the ever-changing actions of water transformation. Strategies that incorporate comprehensive and integrated approaches to planning and design with water will play a powerful role in defining new types of flood defense. These strategies will encourage more resilient and active urban environments, allowing for new spatial and functional programs. This abstract presents the undergoing research in Newcastle, the first urbanized delta in New South Wales (Australia), and the region's second-biggest catchment and estuary. The research methodology is organized in three phases: 1) a projective cartography that analyses maps and data across the region's recorded history, identifying past and present constraints, and predicting future conditions. The cartography aids to identify worst-case scenarios, revealing the implications of land reclamation that have not considered the confronting evolution of climate change and its conflicts with inhabitation; 2) the cartographic studies identify the areas under threat and form the basis for further interdisciplinary research, complimented by community consultation, to reduce flood risk and increase urban resilience and livability; 3) a speculative or prospective phase of design with water to generate evidence-based guidelines that strengthen urban resilience of shorelines and flood prone areas.

Keywords: coastal defense, design, urban resilience, mapping

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20651 Precision Grinding of Titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) Alloy Using Nanolubrication

Authors: Ahmed A. D. Sarhan, Hong Wan Ping, M. Sayuti

Abstract:

In this current era of competitive machinery productions, the industries are designed to place more emphasis on the product quality and reduction of cost whilst abiding by the pollution-preventing policy. In attempting to delve into the concerns, the industries are aware that the effectiveness of existing lubrication systems must be improved to achieve power-efficient and pollution-preventing machining processes. As such, this research is targeted to study on a plausible solution to the issue in grinding titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) by using nanolubrication, as an alternative to flood grinding. The aim of this research is to evaluate the optimum condition of grinding force and surface roughness using MQL lubricating system to deliver nano-oil at different level of weight concentration of Silicon Dioxide (SiO2) mixed normal mineral oil. Taguchi Design of Experiment (DoE) method is carried out using a standard Taguchi orthogonal array of L16(43) to find the optimized combination of weight concentration mixture of SiO2, nozzle orientation and pressure of MQL. Surface roughness and grinding force are also analyzed using signal-to-noise(S/N) ratio to determine the best level of each factor that are tested. Consequently, the best combination of parameters is tested for a period of time and the results are compared with conventional grinding method of dry and flood condition. The results show a positive performance of MQL nanolubrication.

Keywords: grinding, MQL, precision grinding, Taguchi optimization, titanium alloy

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20650 Principle Components Updates via Matrix Perturbations

Authors: Aiman Elragig, Hanan Dreiwi, Dung Ly, Idriss Elmabrook

Abstract:

This paper highlights a new approach to look at online principle components analysis (OPCA). Given a data matrix X R,^m x n we characterise the online updates of its covariance as a matrix perturbation problem. Up to the principle components, it turns out that online updates of the batch PCA can be captured by symmetric matrix perturbation of the batch covariance matrix. We have shown that as n→ n0 >> 1, the batch covariance and its update become almost similar. Finally, utilize our new setup of online updates to find a bound on the angle distance of the principle components of X and its update.

Keywords: online data updates, covariance matrix, online principle component analysis, matrix perturbation

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20649 Performance and Emission Prediction in a Biodiesel Engine Fuelled with Honge Methyl Ester Using RBF Neural Networks

Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

Abstract:

In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

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20648 Examining Foreign Student Visual Perceptions of Online Marketing Tools at a Hungarian University

Authors: Anita Kéri

Abstract:

Higher education marketing has been a widely researched field in recent years. Due to the increasing competition among higher education institutions worldwide, it has become crucial to target foreign students with effective marketing tools. Online marketing tools became central to attracting, retaining, and satisfying the needs of foreign students. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to reveal how the online marketing tools of a Hungarian university are perceived visually by its first-year foreign students, with special emphasis on the university webpage content. Eye-camera tracking and retrospective think-aloud interviews were used to measure visual perceptions. Results show that freshmen students remember those online marketing content more that has familiar content on them. Pictures of real-life students and their experiences attract students’ attention more, and they also remember information on these webpage elements more, compared to designs with stock photos. This research is novel in the sense that it uses eye-camera tracking in the field of higher education marketing, thereby providing insight into the perception of online higher education marketing for foreign students.

Keywords: higher education, marketing, eye-camera, visual perceptions

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20647 Cyber Bullying, Online Risks and Parental Mediation: A Comparison between Adolescent Reports and Parent Perceptions in South Africa

Authors: Masa Popovac, Philip Fine

Abstract:

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have altered our social environments, and young people in particular have immersed themselves in the digital age. Despite countless benefits, younger ICT users are being exposed to various online risks such as contact with strangers, viewing of risky content, sending or receiving sexually themed images or comments (i.e. ‘sexting’) as well as cyber bullying. Parents may not be fully aware of the online spaces their children inhabit and often struggle to implement effective mediation strategies. This quantitative study explored (i) three types of online risks (contact risks, content risks and conduct risks), (ii) cyber bullying victimization and perpetration, and (iii) parental mediation among a sample of 689 South African adolescents aged between 12-17 years. Survey data was also collected for 227 of their parents relating to their perceptions of their child’s online experiences. A comparison between adolescent behaviors and parental perceptions was examined on the three variables in the study. Findings reveal various online risk taking behaviors. In terms of contact risks, 56% of adolescents reported having contact with at least one online stranger, with many meeting these strangers in person. Content risks included exposure to harmful information such as websites promoting extreme diets or self-harm as well as inappropriate content: 84% of adolescents had seen violent content and 75% had seen sexual content online. Almost 60% of adolescents engaged in conduct risks such as sexting. Eight online victimization behaviors were examined in the study and 79% of adolescents had at least one of these negative experiences, with a third (34%) defining this experience as cyber bullying. A strong connection between victimization and perpetration was found, with 63% of adolescents being both a victim and perpetrator. Very little parental mediation of ICT use was reported. Inferential statistics revealed that parents consistently underestimated their child’s online risk taking behaviors as well as their cyber bullying victimization and perpetration. Parents also overestimated mediation strategies in the home. The generational gap in the knowledge and use of ICTs is a barrier to effective parental mediation and online safety, since many negative online experiences by adolescents go undetected and can continue for extended periods of time thereby exacerbating the potential psychological and emotional distress. The study highlights the importance of including parents in online safety efforts.

Keywords: cyber bullying, online risk behaviors, parental mediation, South Africa

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20646 Optimisation of B2C Supply Chain Resource Allocation

Authors: Firdaous Zair, Zoubir Elfelsoufi, Mohammed Fourka

Abstract:

The allocation of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players, manufacturers and Click & Mortars that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. Our contribution is a decision support system and tool for improving the allocation of resources in logistics chains e-commerce B2C context. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. In addition, every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource allocation in customized online shopping service mode, which is different from the supply chain resource allocation under traditional manufacturing or service circumstances. Then we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the allocation of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: e-commerce, supply chain, B2C, optimisation, resource allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 254