Search results for: discrete latent variable modeling

Authors: Alok Kumar Routa, Priya Ranjan Mohanty

Abstract:

Complex seismic signatures are generated due to the complexity of the subsurface which is difficult to interpret. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the complex subsurface using the Ray tracing modeling technique. Add to this, for the imaging of these geological features, Kirchhoff’s prestack depth migration is applied over the synthetic common shot gather dataset. It is found that the Kirchhoff’s migration technique in addition with the Ray tracing modeling concept has the flexibility towards the imaging of various complex geology which gives satisfactory results with proper delineation of the reflectors at their respective true depth position. The entire work has been carried out under the MATLAB environment.

Keywords: Kirchhoff's migration, Prestack depth migration, Ray tracing modelling, velocity model

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Marina Shakleina, Konstantin Shaklein, Stanislav Yakiro

Abstract:

The digitalization of modern human life over the last decade has facilitated the acquisition, storage, and processing of data, which are used to detect changes in consumer preferences and to improve the internal efficiency of the production process. This emerging trend has attracted academic interest in the use of big data in research. The study focuses on modeling the social comfort of the Russian population for the period 2010-2021 using big data. Big data provides enormous opportunities for understanding human interactions at the scale of society with plenty of space and time dynamics. One of the most popular big data sources is Google Trends. The methodology for assessing social comfort using big data involves several steps: 1. 574 words were selected based on the Harvard IV-4 Dictionary adjusted to fit the reality of everyday Russian life. The set of keywords was further cleansed by excluding queries consisting of verbs and words with several lexical meanings. 2. Search queries were processed to ensure comparability of results: the transformation of data to a 10-point scale, elimination of popularity peaks, detrending, and deseasoning. The proposed methodology for keyword search and Google Trends processing was implemented in the form of a script in the Python programming language. 3. Block and summary integral indicators of social comfort were constructed using the first modified principal component resulting in weighting coefficients values of block components. According to the study, social comfort is described by 12 blocks: ‘health’, ‘education’, ‘social support’, ‘financial situation’, ‘employment’, ‘housing’, ‘ethical norms’, ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘leisure’, ‘environment’, ‘infrastructure’. According to the model, the summary integral indicator increased by 54% and was 4.631 points; the average annual rate was 3.6%, which is higher than the rate of economic growth by 2.7 p.p. The value of the indicator describing social comfort in Russia is determined by 26% by ‘social support’, 24% by ‘education’, 12% by ‘infrastructure’, 10% by ‘leisure’, and the remaining 28% by others. Among 25% of the most popular searches, 85% are of negative nature and are mainly related to the blocks ‘security’, ‘political stability’, ‘health’, for example, ‘crime rate’, ‘vulnerability’. Among the 25% most unpopular queries, 99% of the queries were positive and mostly related to the blocks ‘ethical norms’, ‘education’, ‘employment’, for example, ‘social package’, ‘recycling’. In conclusion, the introduction of the latent category ‘social comfort’ into the scientific vocabulary deepens the theory of the quality of life of the population in terms of the study of the involvement of an individual in the society and expanding the subjective aspect of the measurements of various indicators. Integral assessment of social comfort demonstrates the overall picture of the development of the phenomenon over time and space and quantitatively evaluates ongoing socio-economic policy. The application of big data in the assessment of latent categories gives stable results, which opens up possibilities for their practical implementation.

Keywords: big data, Google trends, integral indicator, social comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: A. Hocine, A. Ghouaoula, S. M. Medjdoub, M. Cherifi

Abstract:

The present paper proposed a meso–macro model describing the mechanical behaviour composite laminates of staking sequence [+θ/-θ]s under tensil loading. The behaviour of a layer is ex-pressed through elasticity coupled to damage. The elastic strain is due to the elasticity of the layer and can be modeled by using the classical laminate theory, and the laminate is considered as an orthotropic material. This means that no coupling effect between strain and curvature is considered. In the present work, the damage is associated to cracking of the matrix and parallel to the fibers and it being taken into account by the changes in the stiffness of the layers. The anisotropic damage is completely described by a single scalar variable and its evolution law is specified from the principle of maximum dissipation. The stress/strain relationship is investigated in plane stress loading.

Keywords: damage, behavior modeling, meso-macro model, composite laminate, membrane loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: V. Kumar, K. Jha

Abstract:

The present study is done to explore design modifications of the vortex finder, as it has a significant effect on the cyclone separator performance. It is evident that modifications of the vortex finder improve the performance of the cyclone separator significantly. The study conducted strives to improve the overall performance of cyclone separators by utilizing a converging-diverging (CD) vortex finder instead of the traditional uniform diameter vortex finders. The velocity and pressure fields inside a Stairmand cyclone separator with body diameter 0.29m and vortex finder diameter 0.1305m are calculated. The commercial software, Ansys Fluent v14.0 is used to simulate the flow field in a uniform diameter cyclone and six cyclones modified with CD vortex finders. Reynolds stress model is used to simulate the effects of turbulence on the fluid and particulate phases, discrete phase model is used to calculate the particle trajectories. The performance of the modified vortex finders is compared with the traditional vortex finder. The effects of the lengths of the converging and diverging sections, the throat diameter and the end diameters of the convergent divergent section are also studied to achieve enhanced performance. The pressure and velocity fields inside the vortex finder are presented by means of contour plots and velocity vectors and changes in the flow pattern due to variation of the geometrical variables are also analysed. Results indicate that a convergent-divergent vortex finder is capable of decreasing the pressure drop than that achieved through a uniform diameter vortex finder. It is also observed that the end diameters of the CD vortex finder, the throat diameter and the length of the diverging part of the vortex finder have a significant impact on the cyclone separator performance. Increase in the lower diameter of the vortex finder by 66% results in 11.5% decrease in the dimensionless pressure drop (Euler number) with 5.8% decrease in separation efficiency. Whereas 50% decrease in the throat diameter gives 5.9% increase in the Euler number with 10.2% increase in the separation efficiency and increasing the length of the diverging part gives 10.28% increase in the Euler number with 5.74% increase in the separation efficiency. Increasing the upper diameter of the CD vortex finder is seen to produce an adverse effect on the performance as it increases the pressure drop significantly and decreases the separation efficiency. Increase in length of the converging is not seen to affect the performance significantly. From the present study, it is concluded that convergent-divergent vortex finders can be used in place of uniform diameter vortex finders to achieve a better cyclone separator performance.

Keywords: convergent-divergent vortex finder, cyclone separator, discrete phase modeling, Reynolds stress model

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Chaouki Ghenai

Abstract:

Computational Fluid Dynamic analysis of co-combustion of coal/biomass waste fuel blends is presented in this study. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of biomass portions (0%, 10%, 20%, 30%: weight percent) blended with coal and oxygen concentrations (21% for air, 35%, 50%, 75% and 100 % for pure oxygen) on the combustion performance and emissions. The goal is to reduce the air emissions from power plants coal combustion. Sub-bituminous Nigerian coal with calorific value of 32.51 MJ/kg and sawdust (biomass) with calorific value of 16.68 MJ/kg is used in this study. Coal/Biomass fuel blends co-combustion is modeled using mixture fraction/pdf approach for non-premixed combustion and Discrete Phase Modeling (DPM) to predict the trajectories and the heat/mass transfer of the fuel blend particles. The results show the effects of oxygen concentrations and biomass portions in the coal/biomass fuel blends on the gas and particles temperatures, the flow field, the devolitization and burnout rates inside the combustor and the CO2 and NOX emissions at the exit from the combustor. The results obtained in the course of this study show the benefits of enriching combustion air with oxygen and blending biomass waste with coal for reducing the harmful emissions from coal power plants.

Keywords: co-combustion, coal, biomass, fuel blends, CFD, air emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

Abstract:

Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Fu Jinyu, Lin Jinguan

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel approach that unifies two types of models: one is the continuous-time jump-diffusion used to model high-frequency data, and the other is discrete-time GQARCH employed to model low-frequency financial data by embedding the discrete GQARCH structure with jumps in the instantaneous volatility process. This model is named “GQARCH-It\^{o} -Jumps mode.” We adopt the realized range-based threshold estimation for high-frequency financial data rather than the realized return-based volatility estimators, which entail the loss of intra-day information of the price movement. Meanwhile, a quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GQARCH structure with jumps is developed for the parametric estimate. The asymptotic theories are mainly established for the proposed estimators in the case of finite activity jumps. Moreover, simulation studies are implemented to check the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that how our proposed approaches can be practically used on some financial data.

Keywords: It\^{o} process, GQARCH, leverage effects, threshold, realized range-based volatility estimator, quasi-maximum likelihood estimate

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Sujay Bisht

Abstract:

The purpose of the study was to evaluate and find out the effect of Hill interval training on VO₂ MAX among field Hockey players. Thirty male field hockey players were selected from LNIPE, Guwahati who were studied in B.P.Ed course. The selected subjects were aged between 18 to 23 years. The VO₂ MAX was calculated and they were divided into two group. One group (N=15) considered as control group that did not participated in any special training apart from regular scheduled/curriculum and another group (N=15) considered as an experimental group which underwent four week Hill Training program. The selected criterion variable such VO₂ Max was measured by the cooper 12min/run/walk test and scores was recorded in ml/kg/min. The subjects were tested on selected criterion variable such as VO₂ Max prior and immediately after the training program. The pretest and posttest data were evaluate by the Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) to find out the significance difference if any between the experimental and control group on selected criterion variable. The level of significance was set at 0.05 level of confidence. After applied ANCOVA it was revealed that there was a significant different among the experimental and control group on VO₂ Max. Finally it was concluded that 4 week of Hill interval training effect the VO₂ max performance of field hockey players.

Keywords: VO₂ max, hill interval training, ANCOVA, experimental group

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Fisayo G. Ojo, Shamala K. Subramaniam, Zuriati Ahmad Zukarnain

Abstract:

As technology is advancing and wireless applications are becoming dependable sources, while the physical layer of the applications are been embedded into tiny layer, so the more the problem on energy efficiency and consumption. This paper reviews works done in recent years in wireless applications and distributed computing, we discovered that applications are becoming dependable, and resource allocation sharing with other applications in distributed computing. Applications embedded in distributed system are suffering from power stability and efficiency. In the reviews, we also prove that discrete event simulation has been left behind untouched and not been adapted into distributed system as a simulation technique in scheduling of each event that took place in the development of distributed computing applications. We shed more lights on some researcher proposed techniques and results in our reviews to prove the unsatisfactory results, and to show that more work still have to be done on issues of energy efficiency in wireless applications, and congestion in distributed computing.

Keywords: discrete event simulation (DES), distributed computing, energy efficiency (EE), internet of things (IOT), quality of service (QOS), user equipment (UE), wireless mesh network (WMN), wireless sensor network (wsn), worldwide interoperability for microwave access x (WiMAX)

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

Abstract:

Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Tawfik Thelaidjia, Salah Chenikher

Abstract:

Bearing fault diagnosis has attracted significant attention over the past few decades. It consists of two major parts: vibration signal feature extraction and condition classification for the extracted features. In this paper, feature extraction from faulty bearing vibration signals is performed by a combination of the signal’s Kurtosis and features obtained through the preprocessing of the vibration signal samples using Db2 discrete wavelet transform at the fifth level of decomposition. In this way, a 7-dimensional vector of the vibration signal feature is obtained. After feature extraction from vibration signal, the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to automate the fault diagnosis procedure. To improve the classification accuracy for bearing fault prediction, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to simultaneously optimize the SVM kernel function parameter and the penalty parameter. The results have shown feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach

Keywords: condition monitoring, discrete wavelet transform, fault diagnosis, kurtosis, machine learning, particle swarm optimization, roller bearing, rotating machines, support vector machine, vibration measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Mohammad Azam

Abstract:

This work is an endeavor to empirically investigate the Gross Domestic Product-Growth as mediating variable between various factors and portfolio returns using a broad sample of 522 financial and non-financial firms enlisted on Pakistan Stock Exchange between January-1993 and June-2022. The study employs the Structural Equation modeling and Ordinary Least Square regression to determine the findings before and during the Covid-19 epidemiological situation, which has not received due attention by researchers. The analysis reveals that market and investment factors are redundant, whereas size and value show significant results, whereas Gross Domestic Product-Growth performs significant mediating impact for the whole time frame. Using before Covid-19 period, the results reveal that market, value, and investment are redundant, but size, profitability, and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are significant. During the Covid-19, the statistics indicate that market and investment are redundant, though size and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are highly significant, but value and profitability are moderately significant. The Ordinary Least Square regression shows that market and investment are statistically insignificant, whereas size is highly significant but value and profitability are marginally significant. Using the Gross Domestic Product-Growth augmented model, a slight growth in R-square is observed. The size, value and profitability factors are recommended to the investors for Pakistan Stock Exchange. Conclusively, in the Pakistani market, the Gross Domestic Product-Growth indicates a feeble moderating effect between risk-premia and portfolio returns.

Keywords: asset pricing puzzle, mediating role of GDP-growth, structural equation modeling, COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

Abstract:

Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: T. Manzur, S. Iffat, M. A. Noor

Abstract:

In this paper, relationship between different properties of IC concrete and water cement ratio, obtained from a comprehensive experiment conducted on IC using local materials (Burnt clay chips- BC) is presented. In addition, saturated SAP was used as an IC material in some cases. Relationships have been developed through regression analysis. The focus of this analysis is on developing relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable. Different percent replacements of BC and water cement ratios were used. Compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, water permeability and chloride permeability were tested and variations of these parameters were analyzed with respect to water cement ratio.

Keywords: compressive strength, concrete, curing, lightweight, aggregate, superabsorbent polymer, internal curing

Procedia PDF Downloads 457

Authors: Nejah Ben Mabrouk, Bassem Jarboui, Habib Chabchoub

Abstract:

Production and distribution planning is the most important part in supply chain management. In this paper, a NP-hard production-distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize the sum of costs of three items: production setups, inventories and distribution, while determining, for each period, the amount produced, the inventory levels and the delivery trips. To solve this difficult problem, we propose a bi-phase approach based on a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS). This heuristic is tested on 90 randomly generated instances from the literature, with 20 periods and 50, 100, 200 customers. Computational results show that our approach outperforms existing solution procedures available in the literature

Keywords: logistic, production, distribution, variable neighbourhood search

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: S. Abeysekera, M. Bazghaleh, M. P. L. Ooi, Y. C. Kuang, V. Kalavally

Abstract:

Smart LED-based lighting systems have significant advantages over traditional lighting systems due to their capability of producing tunable light spectrums on demand. The main challenge in the design of smart lighting systems is to produce sufficient luminous flux and uniformly accurate output spectrum for sufficiently broad area. This paper outlines the programmable LED lighting system design principles of design to achieve the two aims. In this paper, a seven-channel design using low-cost discrete LEDs is presented. Optimization algorithms are used to calculate the number of required LEDs, LEDs arrangements and optimum LED separation distance. The results show the illumination uniformity for each channel. The results also show that the maximum color error is below 0.0808 on the CIE1976 chromaticity scale. In conclusion, this paper considered the simulation and design of a seven-channel programmable lighting system using low-cost discrete LEDs to produce sufficient luminous flux and uniformly accurate output spectrum for sufficiently broad area.

Keywords: light spectrum control, LEDs, smart lighting, programmable LED lighting system

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Mohammad Ranjbar, Mohammad Bazyar, Blake Angell, Thomas Lung, Yibeltal Assefa

Abstract:

Background: Current health insurance programs in Iran suffer from low enrolment and are not sufficient to attain the country to universal health coverage (UHC). We hypothesize that improving the enrollment rate and moving towards a more sustainable UHC can be achieved by improving the benefits package and providing new incentives. The objective of this study is to assess public preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for social health insurance (SHI) in Iran. Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in 2021, using a self-administered questionnaire on 500 participants to estimate WTP and determine individual preferences for the SHI in Yazd, Iran. Respondents were presented with an eight-choice set and asked to select their preferred one. In each choice set, scenarios were described by eight attributes with varying levels. The conditional logit regression model was used to analyze the participants' preferences. Willingness to pay for each attribute was also calculated. Results: Most included attributes were significant predictors of the choice of a health insurance package. The maximum coverage of hospitalization costs in the private sector, ancillary services such as glasses, canes, etc., as well as coverage for hospitalization costs in the public sector and drug costs, were the most important determining factors for this choice. Coverage of preventive dental care did not significantly influence respondent choices. Estimating WTP showed that individuals are willing to pay more for higher financial protection, particularly against private sector costs; the WTP to increase the coverage of hospitalization costs in the private sector from 50% to 90% is estimated at 362,068 IR, Rials per month. Conclusion: This study identifies the key factors that the population value with regard to health insurance and the tradeoffs they are willing to make between them. Hospitalization, drugs, and ancillary services were the most important determining factors for their choice. The data suggest that additional resources coming into the Iranian health system might best be prioritized to cover hospitalization and drug costs and those associated with ancillary services.

Keywords: social health insurance, preferences, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

Abstract:

Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Martins Onyekwelu Onuorah, Jnr Dahiru Usman

Abstract:

Introduction: In the realm of public health, the threat posed by Monkeypox continues to elicit concern, prompting rigorous studies to understand its dynamics and devise effective containment strategies. Particularly significant is its recurrence in variable populations, such as the observed outbreak in Nigeria in 2022. In light of this, our study undertakes a meticulous analysis, employing a data-driven approach to explore, validate, and propose optimized intervention strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of Monkeypox within varying demographic structures. Utilizing a deterministic mathematical model, we delved into the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox, with a particular focus on a variable population context. Our qualitative analysis provided insights into the disease-free equilibrium, revealing its stability when R0 is less than one and discounting the possibility of backward bifurcation, as substantiated by the presence of a single stable endemic equilibrium. The model was rigorously validated using real-time data from the Nigerian 2022 recorded cases for Epi weeks 1 – 52. Transitioning from qualitative to quantitative, we augmented our deterministic model with optimal control, introducing three time-dependent interventions to scrutinize their efficacy and influence on the epidemic's trajectory. Numerical simulations unveiled a pronounced impact of the interventions, offering a data-supported blueprint for informed decision-making in containing the disease. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis employing the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR), Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) facilitated a balanced evaluation of the interventions’ economic and health impacts. In essence, our study epitomizes a holistic approach to understanding and mitigating Monkeypox, intertwining rigorous mathematical modeling, empirical validation, and economic evaluation. The insights derived not only bolster our comprehension of Monkeypox's intricate dynamics but also unveil optimized, cost-effective interventions. This integration of methodologies and findings underscores a pivotal stride towards aligning public health imperatives with economic sustainability, marking a significant contribution to global efforts in combating infectious diseases.

Keywords: monkeypox, equilibrium states, stability, bifurcation, optimal control, cost-effectiveness

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: A. K. O’Loughlin

Abstract:

Identity doesn’t exist in discrete categories as it is defined. Kevin Kumashiro reveals the phrase 'an impossibility of identity' in Troubling Education (2000), an investigation of the intersections of culture and gender and the impact of erasure for queer POC identity. This underscores the essentiality of an insider or an outsider identity and the appearance of 'contradiction' or impossibility of these identities. The contradictions between us as subject in our own stories and in the stories of others are often silenced. This silencing of complex, 'contradicting' identity has unmissable implications in the classroom; the developing student in question is done a serious disservice, from which they may never recover. There is no more important point of contact than the teacher, for willingness to encounter a developing person as they are, not as we already think they are, or 'know' them to be, or think they should be. To decide how to regard them based on our own unilateral identity and its associated exhortations and injunctions is, as Hannah Arendt writes in The Origins of Totalitarianism (1951), to sell off our ability to rise, human-like, to the challenge of investigating things as they are. A re-reading of Kumashiro’s impossibility of identity becomes possible through the investigation of pluralism. Identities become possible and un-paradoxical by the notion that contradictions are not problems that an individual is not unilateral, but plural. In this paper, we investigate how philosophies of pluralism can inform our understanding of impossibility of identity in classroom curriculum and pedagogy.

Keywords: identity, gender, culture, pluralism, education, philosophy of education, queer theory, philosophy of mind, adolescent development

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Yamileth P. Herrera, Ronald R. Gutierrez, Carlos, Pacheco-Bustos

Abstract:

This research aims at the numerical modeling of a rectangular contact tank in order to improve the hydrodynamic behavior and the retention time of the water to be treated with the disinfecting agent. The methodology to be followed includes a hydraulic analysis of the tank to observe the fluid velocities, which will allow evidence of low-speed areas that may generate pathogenic agent incubation or high-velocity areas, which may decrease the optimal contact time between the disinfecting agent and the microorganisms to be eliminated. Based on the results of the numerical model, the efficiency of the tank under the geometric and hydraulic conditions considered will be analyzed. This would allow the performance of the tank to be improved before starting a construction process, thus avoiding unnecessary costs.

Keywords: contact tank, numerical models, hydrodynamic modeling, residence time

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Nasir Khalid, S. Thirumalaichelvam

Abstract:

In most buildings, according to US Department of Energy Data Book, the electrical consumption attributable to centralized heating and ventilation of air- condition (HVAC) component can be as high as 40-60% of the total electricity consumption for an entire building. To provide efficient energy management for the market today, researchers are finding new ways to develop a system that can save electrical consumption of buildings even more. In this concept paper, a system known as Intelligent Chiller Energy Efficiency (iCEE) System is being developed that is capable of saving up to 25% from the chiller’s existing electrical energy consumption. In variable frequency drives (VFDs), research has found significant savings up to 30% of electrical energy consumption. Together with the VFDs at specific Air Handling Unit (AHU) of HVAC component, this system will save even more electrical energy consumption. The iCEE System is compatible with any make, model or age of centrifugal, rotary or reciprocating chiller air-conditioning systems which are electrically driven. The iCEE system uses engineering principles of efficiency analysis, enthalpy analysis, heat transfer, mathematical prediction, modified genetic algorithm, psychometrics analysis, and optimization formulation to achieve true and tangible energy savings for consumers.

Keywords: variable frequency drives, adjustable speed drives, ac drives, chiller energy system

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Mahesh K. Jat, Ankan Jana, Mahender Choudhary

Abstract:

Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) are used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.

Keywords: LULC, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, SEBAL, landsat, precipitation, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

Abstract:

Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Karitikeya Sonker

Abstract:

Religion as a discrete system through its lawful internal working produces an output in the form of realised spatial order with its social logic and a social order with its spatial logic. Thus, it appears to exhibit its duality of spatial and trans-spatial. The components of this system share a relevance forming a collective. This shared relevance creates meaning forming a group where all collectives share one identity. This group with its new social order and its spatial logic revive the already existing spatial order. These religious groups do so having a tendency to expand resulting in the production of space in a situation of encounter where they have found relevance. But an encounter without a lawful internal working of a discrete system results in anomaly because groups do not find relevance due to the absence of collective identity. Events happen all around. One of the main reasons we could say that something became an event is because of conflict. Conflict not in its definitive sense but any occurrence that happens because of an intervention that creates an event worth remembering. The unfolding of such events creates Cities and Urban spaces which exhibit their duality of spatial and trans-spatial by behaving as a discrete system. This system through its lawful internal working produces an output in the form of realized spatial order with its social logic and a social order with spatial logic. The components of this system form a collective through a shared a relevance. This shared relevance creates meaning forming a group where all collectives share one identity. This group with its new social order and its spatial logic revives the already existing spatial order. These groups do so having a tendency to expand resulting in the production of space in a situation of encounter where they have found relevance. But an encounter without a lawful internal working of the discrete system results in anomaly because groups do not find relevance due to the absence of collective identity. This paper makes an effort to explore one such even in the case of Babri Mosque and Ramjanmabhumi, Ayodhya to explain the anomaly as transposition of social and spatial. The paper through the case studies makes an attempt to generate an equation explaining the two different situations of religious encounters, former reviving the social and spatial order and the other resulting in anomaly. Through the case study, it makes an attempt to generate an equation explaining the two different situations of religious encounters, former reviving the social and spatial order and the other resulting in anomaly.

Keywords: Babri Masjid, Ayodhya, conflict, religion

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

Abstract:

The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Bayonle Abiola Omoniyi

Abstract:

In turbidite reservoirs with volumetrically significant thin-bedded turbidites (TBTs), thin-pay intervals may be underestimated during calculation of reserve volume due to poor vertical resolution of conventional well logs. This paper demonstrates the strong control of bed-scale sedimentary heterogeneity on oil recovery using six facies distribution scenarios that were generated from outcrop data from the Eocene Itzurun Formation, Basque Basin (northern Spain). The variable net sand volume in these scenarios serves as a primary source of sedimentary heterogeneity impacting sandstone-mudstone ratio, sand and shale geometry and dimensions, lateral and vertical variations in bed thickness, and attribute indices. The attributes provided input parameters for modeling the scenarios. The models are 20-m (65.6 ft) thick. Simulation of the scenarios reveals that oil production is markedly enhanced where degree of sedimentary heterogeneity and resultant permeability contrast are low, as exemplified by Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. In these scenarios, bed architecture encourages better apparent vertical connectivity across intervals of laterally continuous beds. By contrast, low net-to-gross Scenarios 4, 5, and 6, have rapidly declining oil production rates and higher water cut with more oil effectively trapped in low-permeability layers. These scenarios may possess enough lateral connectivity to enable injected water to sweep oil to production well; such sweep is achieved at a cost of high-water production. It is therefore imperative to consider not only net-to-gross threshold but also facies stack pattern and related attribute indices to better understand how to effectively manage water production for optimum oil recovery from basin-plain reservoirs.

Keywords: architecture, connectivity, modeling, turbidites

Procedia PDF Downloads 4

Authors: Ram Narayan Khare, Adhyatma Khare, Aradhna Shrivastava

Abstract:

In this study, numerical modeling of ‘Lime Surkhi’ masonry building has been carried out for a prototype ancient building situated at seismic zone III using the Finite Element Method by Abaqus software. The model is designed in order to get the failure envelope and then decide the best method of retrofitting the structure so that the structure is made to withstand more decades, given its historical background. Previously, due to a lack of technologies, it was difficult to determine the mode of failure. Present technological development can predict the mode of failure, and subsequently, the structure can be refabricated accordingly. The study makes an important addition to the understanding of retrofitting ancient and old buildings based on the results of FEM modeling.

Keywords: seismic retrofitting, Abaqus, FEM, historic building, Lime Surkhi masonry

Procedia PDF Downloads 9

Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 214