Search results for: climate model

Authors: Amylyn F. Labasano, M. S. Econ

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The study predicts the impact of collective bargaining agreement and its related factors on employees’ perceived productivity in terms of union-management relation’s climate, income, fringe benefits, and job satisfaction of the employees. It also determines whether there are significant differences in the employees’ perceived productivity based on the demographic characteristics of the respondents. The results revealed that the relationship climate which exists between the union and the management is found to have significant adverse effect on the average unpaid hours spent by employees working within the college. On the other hand, the total monthly wage earnings of employees have negative effect on the average hours an employee spent in bringing his work home while job satisfaction positively influences the overall productivity level of employees. The result further shows significant differences in the productivity level of employees across civil status and current designation.

Keywords: perceived productivity, collective bargaining agreement, union, union-management relations climate, income, fringe benefits, job satisfaction

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Authors: Nuno M. Pereira

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In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Osama Ahmed Ibrahim Masoud, Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Abdelhadi, Ahmed Mohamed Seddik Hassan

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The problem of study focuses on thermal comfort realization in a residential building during hot and dry climate periods consumes a major electrical energy for air conditioning operation. Thermal comfort realization in a residential building during such climate becomes more difficult regarding the phenomena of climate change, and the use of building and construction materials which have the feature of heat conduction as (bricks-reinforced concrete) and the global energy crises. For that, this study aims to how to realize internal thermal comfort through how to make the best use of building services (temporarily used service spaces) for reducing the electrical energy transfer and saving self-shading. In addition, the possibility of reduction traditional energy (fossil fuel) consumed in cooling through the use of building services for reducing the internal thermal comfort and the relationship between them. This study is based on measuring the consumed electrical energy rate in cooling (by using Design-Builder program) for a residential building (the place of study is: Egypt- Suez Canal- Suez City), this design model has lots of alternatives designs for the place of building services (center of building- the eastern front- southeastern front- the southern front- the south-west front, the western front). The building services are placed on the fronts with different rates for determining the best rate on fronts which realizes thermal comfort with the lowest of energy consumption used in cooling. Findings of the study indicate to that the best position for building services is on the west front then the south-west front, and the more the building services increase, the more energy consumption used in cooling of residential building decreases. Recommendations indicate to the need to study the building services positions in the new projects progress to select the best alternatives to realize ‘Energy conservation’ used in cooling or heating into the buildings in general, residential buildings particularly.

Keywords: residential buildings, energy conservation, thermal comfort, building services, temporary used service spaces, DesignBuilder

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Authors: Kimberley Rain Miner, Karl Kreutz, Larry LeBlanc

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During the period of 1950-1970 persistent organic pollutants such as DDT, dioxin and PCB were released in the atmosphere and distributed through precipitation into glaciers throughout the world. Recent abrupt climate change is increasing the melt rate of these glaciers, introducing the toxins to the watershed. Studies have shown the existence of legacy pollutants in glacial ice, but neither the impact nor quantity of these toxins on downstream populations has been assessed. If these pollutants are released at toxic levels it will be necessary to create a mitigation plan to lower their impact on the affected communities.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, mitigation, risk management

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Zahra Yazdani Paraii, Zohreh Yazdani Paraei

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Many urban designers and planners have been involved in the design of environmentally friendly or nature adaptable urban development models due to increase in urban populations in the recent century, limitation on natural resources, climate change, and lack of enough water and food. Ecological city is one of the latest models proposed to accomplish the latter goal. In this work, the existing establishing indicators of the ecological city are used regarding energy, water, land use and transportation issues. The model is used to compare the function of traditional settlements of Iran. The result of investigation shows that the specifications and functions of the traditional settlements of Iran fit well into the ecological city model. It is found that the inhabitants of the old cities and villages in Iran had founded ecological cities based on their knowledge of the environment and its natural opportunities and limitations.

Keywords: ecological city, traditional city, urban design, environment

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Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni

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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.

Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique

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Authors: Sinem Yıldırım, Çimen Özburak, Özge Özden

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Cities are facing a growing environmental issue as a result of the combined effect of urbanization and climate change. Climate change is the most conspicuousimpact on environmental issues. Nowadays, energy conservation is a very important subject for planners. It is known that green roofs can provide environmental benefits, which include building insulation and mitigating urban heat island effect within the cities. Some of the studies shown that green roofs regulate roof temperature and they have an effect on indoor temperatures of buildings. This research looks at the experimental investigation of different type green roof vegetation with control of no vegetation and their effect on indoor temperatures. The research has been carried out at Near East University Campus with the duration of four months in Nicosia, Cyprus. The experiment was consisting of four green roof types; three of them covered with vegetation, and one of them was not vegetated for control of the experiment. Each hut had 2.7 m2 roof areas, and the soil depth was 8 cm. Mediterranean climate drought resistant ground covers and shrubs were planted on the roof of the three huts. Three different vegetation type was used: 1-Low growing ground cover succulents 2-Mixture of low growing succulents and low shrubs 3-Mixture of low growing succulents, low shrubs, and high growing foliage plantsElitech RC-5 temperature data loggers were used in order to measure indoor temperatures of the huts. Research results were shown that the hut with a highly vegetated roof had the lowest temperatures during hot summer period in Cyprus.

Keywords: green roofs, indoor temperature, vegetation, mediterranean, cyprus

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Authors: Ashik Sarder

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Bangladesh is a disaster-prone and one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. The country has a long coastal area which is frequently being affected by several types of natural disasters due to climate change. The disasters have impacts on the life and livelihood of different natural resources depending on communities living in the coastal areas. The Malo is a Hindu religious traditional fishing community living at Sarafpur Union of Dumuria Upazila of Khulna district of south-west coastal Bangladesh. Fishing is the only means of their livelihood and the community has been engaged in fishing practices inherently in rivers, estuaries, and sea for more than 300 years. and they are totally dependent on this traditional occupation. But, in recent year’s climate change has negative impacts on their only livelihood option. The study aims to examine the impacts of climate change on the livelihood of Malo fishing community in south-west coastal Bangladesh, identify the adaptation strategies undertaken and practiced by Malo fishing community to cope with climate change and sustain their livelihood and explore the changing adaptation strategies undertaken by Malo fishing community and others. The study has been conducted from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives. Data has been collected from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data has been collected in the participatory observation approach following both qualitative and quantitative method. The primary source of data includes village census, face-to-face interview and in-depth case studies using structured questionnaire. The secondary source of the literature includes different national and international documents, policy papers, books and articles; related websites and peer-viewed documents on climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, livelihood, and fisheries. The study has identified different practices of adaption to climate change by Malo fishing community and others in the selected area. Three types of adaption practices have been identified. Firstly, the indigenous adaptation practices by Malo fishing community to cope with climate change have been identified. These identified adaptation practices by Malo fishing community include; ensuring drinking water and sanitation facilities, planting trees to tackle impacts of cyclone, excavating dumps to preserve the valuable assets, growing vegetables and rearing domestic livestock to earn surplus money, taking loans for ensuring continuation of present livelihood and migrating to near city or towns for better livelihood options. Secondly, adaptation initiatives undertaken by the government have provided limited facility to this vulnerable fishing community and made them benefited. And thirdly, some adaptation initiatives commenced by few non-government and community-based organizations have also made the Malo fishing community as beneficiaries. The study has suggested recommendations for Malo fishing community to overcome the challenges and impacts of climate change for retaining their traditional fishing livelihood. The accumulated recommendations would be very useful for the researchers, academicians, policy-makers of Government and non-government organizations to conduct more researches and take initiatives for Malo fishing community to make them more capable to sustain their fishing livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, livelihood, adaptation, anthropology, vulnerability

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Authors: Tamas Garamhegyi, Jozsef Kovacs, Rita Pongracz, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Norbert Magyar, Istvan G. Hatvani

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Like most environmental processes, shallow groundwater fluctuation under natural circumstances also behaves periodically. With the statistical tools at hand, it can easily be determined if a period exists in the data or not. Thus, the question may be raised: Does the estimated average period time characterize the whole time period, or not? This is especially important in the case of such complex phenomena as shallow groundwater fluctuation, driven by numerous factors. Because of the continuous changes in the oscillating components of shallow groundwater time series, the most appropriate method should be used to investigate its periodicity, this is wavelet spectrum analysis. The aims of the research were to investigate the periodic behavior of the shallow groundwater time series of an agriculturally important and drought sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe and its relationship to the European pressure action centers. During the research ~216 shallow groundwater observation wells located in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain with a temporal coverage of 50 years were scanned for periodicity. By taking the full-time interval as 100%, the presence of any period could be determined in percentages. With the complex hydrogeological/meteorological model developed in this study, non-periodic time intervals were found in the shallow groundwater levels. On the local scale, this phenomenon linked to drought conditions, and on a regional scale linked to the maxima of the regional air pressures in the Gulf of Genoa. The study documented an important link between shallow groundwater levels and climate variables/indices facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, which have to take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, drought, groundwater periodicity, wavelet spectrum and coherence analyses

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Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman

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The growing consensus among scientists and world leaders indicates that immediate action should be considered regarding the climate change phenomenon. However, climate change is no more a global issue but a personal one. Thus, individual participation is necessary to address such a significant issue. Studies show that individuals who perceive climate change as a personal issue are more likely to act toward it. This abstract presents augmented reality (A.R.) technology in the social media platform Facebook video advertising. The idea involves creating a video advertisement that enables users to interact with the video by navigating its features and experiencing the result uniquely and engagingly. This advertisement uses A.R. to bring changes, such as people making changes in real-life scenarios by simple clicks on the video and hearing an instant rewarding fact about their choices. The video shows three options: room, lawn, and driveway. Users select one option and engage in interaction based on while holding the camera in their personal spaces: Suppose users select the first option, room, and hold their camera toward spots such as by the windows, balcony, corners, and even walls. In that case, the A.R. offers users different plants appropriate for those unoccupied spaces in the room. Users can change the options of the plants and see which space at their house deserves a plant that makes it more natural. When a user adds a natural element to the video, the video content explains a piece of beneficiary information about how the user contributes to the world more to be livable and why it is necessary. With the help of A.R., if users select the second option, lawn, and hold their camera toward their lawn, the options are various small trees for their lawn to make it more environmentally friendly and decorative. The video plays a beneficiary explanation here too. Suppose users select the third option, driveway, and hold their camera toward their driveway. In that case, the A.R. video option offers unique recycle bin designs using A.I. measurement of spaces. The video plays audio information on anthropogenic contribution to greenhouse gas emission. IoT embeds tracking code in the video ad on Facebook, which stores the exact number of views in the cloud for data analysis. An online survey at the end collects short qualitative answers. This study helps understand the number of users involved and willing to change their behavior; It makes personalized advertising in social media. Considering the current state of climate change, the urgency for action is increasing. This ad increases the chance to make direct connections with individuals and gives a sense of personal responsibility for climate change to act

Keywords: motivations, climate, iot, personalized-advertising, action

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Authors: Silvano Salvador, Maryam Zarrinderakht, Alan Martin

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Open pits, which are the result of mining, are filled by water over time until the water reaches the elevation of the local water table and generates mine pit lakes. There are several specific regulations about the water quality of pit lakes, and mining operations should keep the quality of groundwater above pre-defined standards. Therefore, an accurate, acceptable numerical model predicting pit lakes’ water balance and water quality is needed in advance of mine excavation. We carry on analyzing and developing the model introduced by Crusius, Dunbar, et al. (2002) for pit lakes. This model, called “PitMod”, simulates the physical and geochemical evolution of pit lakes over time scales ranging from a few months up to a century or more. Here, a lake is approximated as one-dimensional, horizontally averaged vertical layers. PitMod calculates the time-dependent vertical distribution of physical and geochemical pit lake properties, like temperature, salinity, conductivity, pH, trace metals, and dissolved oxygen, within each model layer. This model considers the effect of pit morphology, climate data, multiple surface and subsurface (groundwater) inflows/outflows, precipitation/evaporation, surface ice formation/melting, vertical mixing due to surface wind stress, convection, background turbulence and equilibrium geochemistry using PHREEQC and linking that to the geochemical reactions. PitMod, which is used and validated in over 50 mines projects since 2002, incorporates physical processes like those found in other lake models such as DYRESM (Imerito 2007). However, unlike DYRESM PitMod also includes geochemical processes, pit wall runoff, and other effects. In addition, PitMod is actively under development and can be customized as required for a particular site.

Keywords: pit lakes, mining, modeling, hydrology

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Authors: H. M. El-Askary, S. A. Abd El-Mawla, M. Allali, M. M. El-Hattab, M. El-Raey, A. M. Farahat, M. Kafatos, S. Nickovic, S. K. Park, A. K. Prasad, C. Rakovski, W. Sprigg, D. Struppa, A. Vukovic

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A clear distinction between weather and climate is a necessity because while they are closely related, there are still important differences. Climate change is identified when we compute the statistics of the observed changes in weather over space and time. In this work we will show how the changing climate contribute to the frequency, magnitude and extent of different extreme events using a multi sensor approach with some synergistic modeling activities. We are exploring satellite observations of dust over North Africa, Gulf Region and the Indo Gangetic basin as well as dust versus anthropogenic pollution events over the Delta region in Egypt and Seoul through remote sensing and utilize the behavior of the dust and haze on the aerosol optical properties. Dust impact on the retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas is also presented. In this study we also focus on the identification and monitoring of a massive dust plume that blew off the western coast of Africa towards the Atlantic on October 8th, 2012 right before the development of Hurricane Sandy. There is evidence that dust aerosols played a non-trivial role in the cyclogenesis process of Sandy. Moreover, a special dust event "An American Haboob" in Arizona is discussed as it was predicted hours in advance because of the great improvement we have in numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events. Therefore we performed a full numerical simulation to that event using the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME–DREAM after generating a mask of the potentially dust productive regions using land cover and vegetation data obtained from satellites. Climate change also contributes to the deterioration of different marine habitats. In that regard we are also presenting some work dealing with change detection analysis of Marine Habitats over the city of Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt. The motivation for this work came from the fact that coral reefs at Hurghada have undergone significant decline. They are damaged, displaced, polluted, stepped on, and blasted off, in addition to the effects of climate change on the reefs. One of the most pressing issues affecting reef health is mass coral bleaching that result from an interaction between human activities and climatic changes. Over another location, namely California, we have observed that it exhibits highly-variable amounts of precipitation across many timescales, from the hourly to the climate timescale. Frequently, heavy precipitation occurs, causing damage to property and life (floods, landslides, etc.). These extreme events, variability, and the lack of good, medium to long-range predictability of precipitation are already a challenge to those who manage wetlands, coastal infrastructure, agriculture and fresh water supply. Adding on to the current challenges for long-range planning is climate change issue. It is known that La Niña and El Niño affect precipitation patterns, which in turn are entwined with global climate patterns. We have studied ENSO impact on precipitation variability over different climate divisions in California. On the other hand the Nile Delta has experienced lately an increase in the underground water table as well as water logging, bogging and soil salinization. Those impacts would pose a major threat to the Delta region inheritance and existing communities. There has been an undergoing effort to address those vulnerabilities by looking into many adaptation strategies.

Keywords: remote sensing, modeling, long range transport, dust storms, North Africa, Gulf Region, India, California, climate extremes, sea level rise, coral reefs

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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Authors: Muna Shalan

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Climate change is a systemic challenge for cities, with its impacts not happening in isolation but rather intertwined, thus increasing hazards and the vulnerability of the exposed population. The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, for example, is associated with multiple repercussions on the quality of life of city inhabitants, including health discomfort, a rise in mortality and morbidity, increasing energy demand for cooling, and shrinking of green areas due to drought. To address the multi-faceted impact of urbanisation-induced warming, municipalities and local governments are challenged with devising strategies and implementing effective response measures. Municipalities are recognising the importance of guiding urban concepts to drive climate action in the urban environment. An example is climate proofing, which refers to a process of mainstreaming climate change into development strategies and programs, i.e., urban planning is viewed through a climate change lens. There is a multitude of interconnected aspects that are critical to paving the path toward climate-proofing of urban areas and avoiding poor planning of layouts and spatial arrangements. Navigating these aspects through an analysis of the overarching practices governing municipal planning processes, which is the focus of this research, will highlight entry points to improve procedures, methods, and data availability for optimising planning processes and municipal actions. By employing a case study approach, the research investigates how municipalities in different contexts, namely in the city of Sahab in Jordan, Chililabombwe in Zambia, and the city of Dortmund in Germany, are integrating guiding urban concepts to shrink the deficit in adaptation and mitigation and achieve climate proofing goals in their respective local contexts. The analysis revealed municipal strategies and measures undertaken to optimize existing building and urban design regulations by introducing key performance indicators and improving in-house capacity. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that establishing or optimising interdepartmental communication frameworks or platforms is key to strengthening the steering structures governing local climate action. The most common challenge faced by municipalities is related to their role as a regulator and implementers, particularly in budget analysis and instruments for cost recovery of climate action measures. By leading organisational changes related to improving procedures and methods, municipalities can mitigate the various challenges that may emanate from uncoordinated planning and thus promote action against urbanisation-induced warming.

Keywords: urbanisation-induced warming, response measures, municipal planning processes, key performance indicators, interdepartmental communication frameworks, cost recovery

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Authors: Sadia Imran, Zenab Naseem

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Dengue fever is one of the most alarming mosquito-borne viral diseases. Dengue virus has been distributed over the years exponentially throughout the world be it tropical or sub-tropical regions of the world, particularly in the last ten years. Changing topography, climate change in terms of erratic seasonal trends, rainfall, untimely monsoon early or late and longer or shorter incidences of either summer or winter. Globalization, frequent travel throughout the world and viral evolution has lead to more severe forms of Dengue. Global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. In recent years, Pakistan experienced a deadly outbreak of the disease. The reason could be that they have the maximum exposure outdoors. Public organizations have observed that changing climate, especially lower average summer temperature, and increased vegetation have created tropical-like conditions in the city, which are suitable for Dengue virus growth. We will conduct a time-series analysis to study the interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in Pakistan, Lahore being the main focus of our study. We have used annual data from 2005 to 2015. We have investigated the relationship between climatic variables and dengue incidence. We used time series analysis to describe temporal trends. The result shows rising trends of Dengue over the past 10 years along with the rise in temperature & rainfall in Lahore. Hence this seconds the popular statement that the world is suffering due to Climate change and Global warming at different levels. Disease outbreak is one of the most alarming indications of mankind heading towards destruction and we need to think of mitigating measures to control epidemic from spreading and enveloping the cities, countries and regions.

Keywords: Dengue, epidemic, globalization, climate change

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Authors: Laabassi Ayache, Boudehane Asma

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Macrophyte pond has developed strongly in the field of wastewater treatment for irrigation in rural areas and small communities. Their association allows, in some cases, to increase the hydraulic capacity while maintaining the highest level of quality. The present work is devoted to the treatment of domestic wastewater under climatic conditions of Algeria (semi-arid) through a system using two tanks planted with Salvinia natans. The performance study and treatment efficiency of the system overall shows that the latter provides a significant removal of nitrogen pollution: total Kjeldahl nitrogen NTK (85.2%), Ammonium NH₄⁺-N (79%), Nitrite NO₂⁻-N (40%) also, a major meaningful reduction of biochemical oxygen demand BOD₅ was observed at the output of the system (96.9 %). As BOD₅, the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal was higher than 95% at the exit of the two tanks. A moderately low yield of phosphate-phosphorus (PO₄³-P) was achieved with values not exceeding 37%. In general, the quality of treated effluent meets the Algerian standard of discharge and which allows us to select a suitable species in constructed wetland treatment systems under semi-arid climate.

Keywords: nutrient removal, Salvinia natans, semi-arid climate, wastewater treatment

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Authors: Rehan Siddiqui, Brendan Quine

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The Radiance Enhancement (RE) and integrated absorption technique is applied to develop a synthetic model to determine the enhancement in radiance due to cloud scene and Shortwave upwelling Radiances (SHupR) by O2, H2O, CO2 and CH4. This new model is used to estimate the magnitude variation for RE and SHupR over spectral range of 900 nm to 1700 nm by varying surface altitude, mixing ratios and surface reflectivity. In this work, we employ satellite real observation of space orbiting Argus 1000 especially for O2, H2O, CO2 and CH4 together with synthetic model by using line by line GENSPECT radiative transfer model. All the radiative transfer simulations have been performed by varying over a different range of percentages of water vapor contents and carbon dioxide with the fixed concentration oxygen and methane. We calculate and compare both the synthetic and real measured observed data set of different week per pass of Argus flight. Results are found to be comparable for both approaches, after allowing for the differences with the real and synthetic technique. The methodology based on RE and SHupR of the space spectral data can be promising for the instant and reliable classification of the cloud scenes.

Keywords: radiance enhancement, radiative transfer, shortwave upwelling radiative flux, cloud reflectivity, greenhouse gases

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Authors: Karan Gupta

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The floods cause huge loos each year, and their impact gets manifold with the increase of total duration of flood as well as recession time. Moreover, floods have increased in recent years due to climate change in floodplains. In the context of global climate change, the agreement in Paris convention (2015) stated to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C and keep it at the limit of 1.5°C. Thus, this study investigates the impact of increasing temperature on the stage, discharge as well as total flood duration and recession time in the Meghna River basin in Bangladesh. This study considers the 100-year return period flood flows in the Meghna river under the specific warming levels (SWLs) of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C. The results showed that the rate of increase of duration of flood is nearly 50% lesser at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C, whereas the rate of increase of duration of recession is 75% lower at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C. Understanding the change of total duration of flood as well as recession time of the flood gives a better insight to effectively plan for flood mitigation measures.

Keywords: flood, climate change, Paris convention, Bangladesh, inundation duration, recession duration

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Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

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This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

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Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

Abstract:

Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Clince Rodrigues

Abstract:

Due to high dense areas, there is a continuous increase in the global warming and urban pollution, thus integrating green with the built environment is vital. The paper deals with the understanding of vegetation in architecture and how a proper design strategy can aim at improving not only the performances of buildings but also the outdoor climate. In the present scenario of cities, one cannot inhale pure air. Vegetations combat global warming by absorbing the carbon emitted by vehicles, lowering carbon emissions from fossil fuel-burning plants, and reducing the energy used for climate control in buildings by the use of plants which can reduce the carbon emission and thus, making the environment less polluted. A comparative study of areas, neighborhood and dwelling unit has been used as a scope for understanding different scenarios and scale. By comparing a system (area; building) with and without vegetation, and then finding out the difference. Understanding the Vijayawada city by taking its past and present conditions, and how these changes have affected the environment and people at a macro and micro level. Built environment and climactic performance at the building level and surrounding spaces are the areas that are covered in the study.

Keywords: climate, environment, neighborhood, pollution, vegetation, Vijayawada, urban

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Authors: Yosiya Chanta, Jantrararuk Tovaranont

Abstract:

Species distribution model (SDMs) is one of the powerful tools used to create a suitability map used to predict and address ecology and conservation approaches. MaxEnt is a tool used among SDMs that is highly popular because it only uses presence data. Zanthoxylum rhetsa has more than 200 species distributed in the tropics. Most commonly found in cooler forest environments, there are 8-9 species found in Thailand. In northern Thailand, 3 varieties are commonly grown: Zanthoxylum myriacanthum, Zanthoxylum rhetsa and Zanthoxylum armatum. In the northern regions, these varieties are mainly used as a spice and as a cooking ingredient. MaxEnt has been used in this study to predict potential habitats for these Zanthoxylums in current and future times (2041and 2060). Suitable habitats are predicted using data from the EC-Earth3-Veg general circulation model with 19 climatic variables. The results indicate that the suitability of future habitats of Zanthoxylum rhetsa may expand into the lower northern part of Thailand. The habitat suitability map obtained from the MaxEnt tool shows that the Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (Bio16) is the most important climatic variable influencing the current and future spread of Zanthoxylum rhetsa.

Keywords: MaxEnt, Zanthoxylum rhets, species distribution modelling, climate change

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Authors: Pascal U. Onu, Doris A. Ogbang, Emmanuel Okechukwu.

Abstract:

Background: Plastics in their various forms have become ubiquitous in a very short space of time. This ubiquitous nature has plagued and daunted nations globally, overwhelming their ability to manage the environmental impact, especially its linkages to climate change. This has mobilized nations globally and triggered debates on the best approaches to ensure sustainability in terms of its production and utilization, as total elimination seems unrealistic. Objective: This study undertook to understand the pattern of plastic waste management, and its pollution awareness levels by the residents of the study area. Methods: Data were obtained through questionnaires designed specifically for plastic waste and qualitatively via journals and articles. Simple descriptive survey techniques with a survey population size of 300 respondents using kobo collect were employed. Results: Analysis based on disaggregated data indicated a proportionate distribution among male and female respondents (53% male and 47% female, respectively). Overall awareness levels on plastic waste's contribution to climate change, compared to its environmental impact, are reflective of a dire need for increased efforts in strengthening awareness creation, especially across gender populations and religious backgrounds. Drainage blockage topped the ranks among common problems caused by plastic waste within the area. Various plastic waste disposal methods were ranked, while pro-environmental measures for reducing the waste menace showed more willingness from males at 52%. Conclusion: These outcomes are instructive and suggest the need for renewed and increased awareness/education on the nexus of plastic pollution to climate change and also appropriate synergies/collaboration between government, private sector, and local communities, especially in the area of recycling to improve sustainability in plastic waste management.

Keywords: plastic waste, KAP, climate change, Nigeria

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Authors: Norhayati Mat Wajid, Abdul Murad Zainal Abidin, Hasila Jarimi, Kamaruzaman Sopian, Adnan Ibrahim, Ahmad Fazlizan, Afif Safwan

Abstract:

Solar-adsorption air-conditioning system (SADCS) is an alternative to the conventional vapor compression system (VCS). SADCS have advantages over VCS system, such as 1) a green cooling technology which utilizes solar energy to drive the adsorption/desorption cycle, 2) can be operated using green refrigerant HFC free pure water, 3) mechanically simpler, and 4) lower operating noise level since it has no moving parts other than the magnetic valves. Several advancements have been achieved in these fields in the last decade, but further research is still needed to escalate this technology to a practical level. Hence, this paper presents a literature survey and a review that add insights into the current state-of-the-art of SADCS technologies with emphasis on the practical researches that were conducted at the laboratory scale and commercial level. In this paper, the performance evaluation of vermiculite as adsorbent material for SADCS in tropical climate discussed in comparison to other adsorbent material such as silica gel.

Keywords: adsorption cooling, solar-assisted cooling, HVAC, tropical climate, solar thermal

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Authors: Bikram Jung Kunwar

Abstract:

Forests have central roles in climate change. The conservation of forests sequestrates the carbon from the atmosphere and also regulates the carbon cycle. However, knowingly and unknowingly the world’s forests were deforested and degraded annually at the rate of 0.18% and emitted the carbon to the atmosphere. The IPCC reports claimed that the deforestation and forest degradation accounts 1/5th of total carbon emission, which is second position after fossil fuels. Since 1.6 billion people depend on varying degree on forests for their daily livelihood, not all deforestation are undesirable. Therefore, to conserve the forests and find the livelihood opportunities for forest surrounding people is prerequisites to address the climate change problems especially in developing countries, and also a growing concern to the forestry sector researchers, planners and policy makers. The study examines the role of community based forest management in carbon mitigation and adaptation taking the examples of Nepal’s community forestry program. In the program, the government hands over a part of national forests to the local communities with sole forest management authorities. However, the government itself retained the ownership rights of forestland. Local communities organized through a local institution called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) managed the forests. They also formed an operational plan with technical prescriptions and a constitution with forest management rules and regulations. The implementation results showed that the CFUGs are not only found effective to organize the local people and construct a local institution to forest conservation and management activities, but also they are able to collect a community fund from the sale of forest products and carried out various community development activities. These development activities have decisive roles to improve the livelihood of forest surrounding people and eventually to address the climate change problems.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, local institution, Nepal

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Authors: Tulsi Ram Bhusal

Abstract:

Global climate change is known to have a huge impact on agriculture due to changing in rainfall pattern and elevated air temperature that lead to drought and/or flooding. This systematic study has focused on agriculture in Nepal. The study has shown that the trend of current climatic change is affecting rice production, while the farmers with technological access have tried to adapt to the changing conditions at their level. There is insufficient intervention from the government side in terms of policies and schemes. The lack of sufficient funds is one of the significant reasons in terms of governance. The climatic trends and the way it is affecting the annual riceyieldinNepal has been discussed in this study thoroughly. This study has reviewed published studies and ferred important points regarding the Nepal’s status on rice production. Mainly due to the increasing graph of average temperature and other physical conditions needed for the proper cultivation of ricearechanging due to which there is significant dropofannual rice production. Although from corners of the country, many farmers have attempted to adapt the methods of cultivation to the changing climatic conditions, lack of access to technologies, and fund allocation from the governmental level, it is difficult for the mtobringchanges in rice production by the crown without any institutional help. This systematic study effectively presents the magnitude of the impact on rice cultivation due to climatic changes inrecenttimesinNepal. This review aims to bring the current scenarioofNepal’sricefarming, and it impacts due to changing climate, which can subsequently contribute in devising plans for proper governance, formulating policies, and allocation of funds for the betterment.

Keywords: rice, climate change, rice production, nepal, agriculture

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Authors: S. M. A. Bekkouche, T. Benouaz, M. K. Cherier, M. Hamdani, M. R. Yaiche, N. Benamrane

Abstract:

Most codes of building energy simulation neglect the humidity or well represent it with a very simplified method. It is for this reason that we have developed a new approach to the description and modeling of multizone buildings in Saharan climate. The thermal nodal method was used to apprehend thermoaeraulic behavior of air subjected to varied solicitations. In this contribution, analyzing the building geometry introduced the concept of index compactness as "quotient of external walls area and volume of the building". Physical phenomena that we have described in this paper, allow to build the model of the coupled thermoaeraulic behavior. The comparison shows that the found results are to some extent satisfactory. The result proves that temperature and specific humidity depending on compactness and geometric shape. Proper use of compactness index and building geometry parameters will noticeably minimize building energy.

Keywords: multizone model, nodal method, compactness index, specific humidity, temperature

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Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

Abstract:

A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

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