Search results for: risk of failure

Authors: Bahlous Afef, Bouzid Kahena, Bardkis Ahlem, Mrad Mehdi, Kalai Eya, Sonia Bahri, Abdelmoula Jaouida

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Diabetic nephropathy is the first cause of chronic renal failure and hemodialysis use in several countries including Tunisia. The role of hypertension (HT) as major risk factor for nephropathy is undeniable. The aim of our study was to determine the relationship between blood pressure and nephropathy in a population of diabetic type 2 recently discovered. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective study focused on 60 patients with type 2 diabetes recently discovered (<5 years). Each patient have benefited from: -a full clinical examination with measurement of blood pressure - exploring a blood-glucose control and renal function -urinary exploration with the determination of proteinuria microalbuminumie of 24 hours with a immunoturbidimetric method using Architect (ABBOTT CI 8200). Results and discussion: Hypertension was present in 46.7% of cases. Twenty patients, 35% of the study population showed nephropathy. Four of these patients (6.66% of cases) had proteinuria, while 16 (26.6% of patients) had microalbuminuria (> 30mg/24 hours). Systolic blood pressure was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with the presence of nephropathy (139 +19.44) vs. for the group with normal renal function (128.65 +15.12 mmHg). Conclusion: The etiology of diabetic nephropathy is multifactorial. However, systolic blood pressure and glycemic control remains the major risk factors. Better glycemic control and treatment of hypertension allowed preventing and slowing the progression of diabetic nephropathy.

Keywords: hypertension, nephropathy, hemodialysis, diabetes

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Authors: J. M. Mayoral, M. Anaya

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The urban and economic development of cities demands the construction of water use and flood control infrastructure. Likewise, it is necessary to determine the safety level of the structures built with the current standards and if it is necessary to define the reinforcement actions. The foregoing is even more important in structures of great importance, such as dams, since they imply a greater risk for the population in case of failure or undesirable operating conditions (e.g., seepage, cracks, subsidence). This article presents a methodology for determining the seismic integrity of dams in urban areas. From direct measurements of the dynamic properties using geophysical exploration and ambient seismic noise measurements, the seismic integrity of the concrete-faced rockfill dam selected as a case of study is evaluated. To validate the results, two accelerometer stations were installed (e.g., free field and crest of the dam). Once the dynamic properties were determined, three-dimensional finite difference models were developed to evaluate the dam seismic performance for different intensities of movement, considering the site response and soil-structure interaction effects. The seismic environment was determined from the uniform hazard spectra for several return periods. Based on the results obtained, the safety level of the dam against different seismic actions was determined, and the effectiveness of ambient seismic noise measurements in dynamic characterization and subsequent evaluation of the seismic integrity of urban dams was evaluated.

Keywords: risk, seismic, soil-structure interaction, urban dams

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Authors: S. H. Atef

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Background: The most common chromosomal abnormalities identified at birth are aneuploidies of chromosome 21, 18, 13, X and Y. Prenatal diagnosis of fetal aneuploidies is routinely done by traditional cytogenetic culture, a major drawback of this technique is the long period of time required to reach a diagnosis. In this study, we evaluated the QF-PCR as a rapid technique for prenatal diagnosis of common aneuploidies. Method:This work was carried out on Sixty amniotic fluid samples taken from patients with one or more of the following indications: Advanced maternal age (3 case), abnormal biochemical markers (6 cases), abnormal ultrasound (12 cases) or previous history of abnormal child (39 cases).Each sample was tested by QF-PCR and traditional cytogenetic. Aneuploidy screenings were performed amplifying four STRs on chromosomes 21, 18, 13, two pseudoautosomal,one X linked, as well as the AMXY and SRY; markers were distributed in two multiplex QFPCR assays (S1 and S2) in order to reduce the risk of sample mishandling. Results: All the QF-PCR results were successful, while there was two culture failures, only one of them was repeated. No discrepancy was seen between the results of both techniques. Fifty six samples showed normal patterns, three sample showed trisomy 21, successfully detected by both techniques and one sample showed normal pattern by QF-PCR but could not be compared to the cytogenetics due to culture failure, the pregnancy outcome of this case was a normal baby. Conclusion: Our study concluded that QF-PCR is a reliable technique for prenatal diagnosis of the common chromosomal aneuploidies. It has the advantages over the cytogenetic culture of being faster with the results appearing within 24-48 hours, simpler, doesn't need a highly qualified staff, less prone to failure and more cost effective.

Keywords: QF-PCR, traditional cytogenetic fetal aneuploidies, trisomy 21, prenatal diagnosis

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Authors: Jinyong Yao, Hongzhi Li, Chao Du, Jiao Li

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Reliability of long-term storage products is related to the availability of the whole system, and the evaluation of storage life is of great necessity. These products are usually highly reliable and little failure information can be collected. In this paper, an analytical method based on data from accelerated storage life test is proposed to evaluate the reliability index of the long-term storage products. Firstly, singularities are eliminated by data normalization and residual analysis. Secondly, with the pre-processed data, the degradation path model is built to obtain the pseudo life values. Then by life distribution hypothesis, we can get the estimator of parameters in high stress levels and verify failure mechanisms consistency. Finally, the life distribution under the normal stress level is extrapolated via the acceleration model and evaluation of the true average life available. An application example with the camera stabilization device is provided to illustrate the methodology we proposed.

Keywords: accelerated storage life test, failure mechanisms consistency, life distribution, reliability

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: B. Petrović, M. Petrović, L. Rutonjski, I. Djan, V. Ivanović

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Objective: Cardiac pacemakers are very sensitive to radiotherapy treatment from two sources: electromagnetic influence from the medical linear accelerator producing ionizing radiation- influencing electronics within the pacemaker, and the absorption of dose to the device. On the other hand, patients with cardiac pacemakers at the place of a tumor are rather rare, and single clinic hardly has experience with the management of such patients. The widely accepted international guidelines for management of radiation oncology patients recommend that these patients should be closely monitored and examined before, during and after radiotherapy treatment by cardiologist, and their device and condition followed up. The number of patients having both cancer and pacemaker, is growing every year, as both cancer incidence, as well as cardiac diseases incidence, are inevitably growing figures. Materials and methods: Female patient, age 69, was diagnozed with valvular cardiomyopathy and got implanted a pacemaker in 2005 and prosthetic mitral valve in 1993 (cancer was diagnosed in 2012). She was stable cardiologically and came to radiation therapy department with the diagnosis of right breast cancer, with the tumor in upper lateral quadrant of the right breast. Since she had all lymph nodes positive (28 in total), she had to have irradiated the supraclavicular region, as well as the breast with the tumor bed. She previously received chemotherapy, approved by the cardiologist. The patient was estimated to be with the high risk as device was within the field of irradiation, and the patient had high dependence on her pacemaker. The radiation therapy plan was conducted as 3D conformal therapy. The delineated target was breast with supraclavicular region, where the pacemaker was actually placed, with the addition of a pacemaker as organ at risk, to estimate the dose to the device and its components as recommended, and the breast. The targets received both 50 Gy in 25 fractions (where 20% of a pacemaker received 50 Gy, and 60% of a device received 40 Gy). The electrode to the heart received between 1 Gy and 50 Gy. Verification of dose planned and delivered was performed. Results: Evaluation of the patient status according to the guidelines and especially evaluation of all associated risks to the patient during treatment was done. Patient was irradiated by prescribed dose and followed up for the whole year, with no symptoms of failure of the pacemaker device during, or after treatment in follow up period. The functionality of a device was estimated to be unchanged, according to the parameters (electrode impedance and battery energy). Conclusion: Patient was closely monitored according to published guidelines during irradiation and afterwards. Pacemaker irradiated with the full dose did not show any signs of failure despite recommendations data, but in correlation with other published data.

Keywords: cardiac pacemaker, breast cancer, radiotherapy treatment planning, complications of treatment

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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Schools throughout the world are facing increasing challenges in dealing with school violence and drug abuse by pupils. Therefore, the question of the fear of failure to meet the aims and objectives of education inevitably surfaces as it places increasing and challenging demands on educators and all other stakeholders to address this malaise. Multiple studies on the construct tobephobia (TBP) simply define TBP as the fear of failure in education. This study is a continuation of the exploratory studies on the manifestation of fear in education. The primary purpose of this study was to establish how TBP, caused by school violence and drug abuse affects teaching and learning in our schools. The qualitative research method was used for this study. Teachers admitted that they fear for their safety at school. Working in a fearful situation places a high rate of stress and anxiety on them. Tobephobic educators spend most of their time worrying about their fear of violence and drug abuse by pupils and are too frightened to carry out their normal duties. They prefer to stay in familiar surroundings for fear of being attacked by inebriated learners. This study, therefore, contributes to our understanding of the effects of TBP in our schools caused by school violence and drug abuse. Also, this study supplements the evidence accumulated over the past fifteen years that TBP is not a figment of someone’s imagination; it is a gruesome reality affecting the very foundation of our educational system globally to provide quality and equal education to all our learners in a harmonious, collegial school environment.

Keywords: tobephobia, tobephobic educators, fear of failure in education, school violence, drug abuse

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Authors: Ihtisham Bukhari

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In the current study, we enrolled a 46, XY phenotypically female patient bearing testes in her inguinal canal. DNA sequencing of the AR gene detected a missense mutation C.1715A > G (p. Y572C) in exon 2 which is already known to cause Complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS). We further studied the effects of this mutation on the testicular histopathology of the patient. No spermatocytes were seen in the surface spreading of testicular tissues while H&E staining showed that seminiferous tubules predominantly have only Sertoli cells. To confirm this meiotic failure is likely due to the current AR mutation we performed mRNA expression of genes associated with AR pathway, expression and location of the associated proteins in testicular tissues. Western blot and real-time PCR data showed that the patient had high levels of expression of AMH, SOX9, and INNB in testis. Tubules were stained with SOX9 and AMH which revealed Sertoli cell maturation arrest. Therefore, we suggest that AR mutation enhances AMH expression which ultimately leads to failure in the maturation of Sertoli cells and failure in spermatogenesis.

Keywords: androgen receptor, spermatogenesis, infertility, Sertoli cell only syndrome

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mohammad Noor Hisham Osman, Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff, Zaidi Mat Daud, Zulkarnain Muhamad Sori

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The problem that Malaysian auditors do not issue going concern opinion (GC opinion) to seriously financially distressed companies is still a pressing issue. Policy makers, particularly the Financial Statement Review Committee (FSRC) of Malaysian Institute of Accountant, have raised this issue as early as in 2009. Similar problem happened in the US, UK, and many developing countries. It is important for auditors to issue GC opinion properly because such opinion is one signal about the viability of a company much needed by stakeholders. There are at least two unanswered questions or research gaps in the literature on determinants of GC opinion. Firstly, is client’s probability of failure associated with GC opinion issuance? Secondly, to what extent influential owners (management, family, and institution) moderate the association between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. The objective of this study is, therefore, twofold; (1) To examine the extent of the relationship between the probability of client failure and the issuance of GC opinion and (2) To examine the level of management, family, and institutional ownerships moderate the association between client probability of failure and the issuance of GC opinion. This study is quantitative in nature, and the sources of data are secondary (mainly company’s annual reports). A total of four hypotheses have been developed and tested on data accumulated from annual reports of seriously financially distressed Malaysian public listed companies. Data from 2006 to 2012 on a sample of 644 observations have been analyzed using panel logistic regression. It is found that certainty (rather than probability) of client failure affects the issuance of GC opinion. In addition, it is found that only the level of family ownership does positively moderate the relationship between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. This study is a contribution to auditing literature as its findings can enhance our understanding about audit quality; particularly on the variables that are associated with the issuance of GC opinion. The findings of this study shed light on the roles family owners in GC opinion issuance process, and this would open ways for the researcher to suggest measures that can be used to tackle the problem of auditors do not want to issue GC opinion to financially distressed clients. The measures to be suggested can be useful to policy makers in formulating future promulgations.

Keywords: audit quality, auditing, auditor characteristics, going concern opinion, Malaysia

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Eman Elsebaie, A. Sedrak, R. Ziada

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Introduction: In the recent decades, heart failure (HF) has become one of the most prevalent cardio-vascular disease (CVDs), especially in the elderly and the main cause of hospitalization in Egypt cardiology departments. By 2030, the prevalence of HF is expected to increase by 25%. Total direct costs will increase to $818 billion, and the total indirect cost in terms of lost productivity is close to $275 billion. The current study was conducted to estimate the economic costs of services delivered for heart failure patients at the cardiology department in Cairo University Hospitals (CUHs). Aim: To gain an understanding of the cost of heart failure disease and its main drivers aiming to minimize associated health care costs. Subjects and Methods: Economic cost analysis study was conducted for a prospective group of all cases of HF admitted to the cardiology department in CUHs from end of March till end of April 2016 and another retrospective randomized sample from patients with HF, during the first 3 months of 2016 to measure estimated average cost per patient per day. Results: The mean age of the prospective group was 48.6 ± 17.16 years versus 52.3 ± 11.5 years for the retrospective group. The median (IQR) of Length of stay was 15 (15) days in the prospective group versus 9 (16) days in the retrospective group. The average HF inpatient cost/day in the cardiology department during April 2016 was 362.32 (255.5) L.E. versus 391.2(255.9) L.E. during January and February 2016. Conclusion: Up to 70% of expenditure in the management of HF is related to hospital admission. The average cost of such an admission was 5540.03 (IQR=7507.8) L.E. and 4687.4 (IQR=7818.8) L.E. with the average cost per day estimated at 362.32 (IQR=255.5) L.E. and 386.2(IQR=255.9) L.E. in prospective and retrospective groups respectively.

Keywords: health care cost, heart failure, hospitalization, inpatient

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Lee Tasker, Ali Karrech, Jeffrey Shragge, Matthew Josh

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Monitoring for the deterioration of concrete infrastructure is an important assessment tool for an engineer and difficulties can be experienced with monitoring for deterioration within an infrastructure. If a failure crack, or fluid seepage through such a crack, is observed from the surface often the source location of the deterioration is not known. Geophysical methods are used to assist engineers with assessing the subsurface conditions of materials. Techniques such as Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) provide information on the location of buried infrastructure such as pipes and conduits, positions of reinforcements within concrete blocks, and regions of voids/cavities behind tunnel lining. This experiment underlines the application of GPR as an infrastructure-monitoring tool to highlight and monitor regions of possible deterioration within a concrete test wall due to an increase in the generation of fractures; in particular, during a time period of applied load to a concrete wall up to and including structural failure. A three-point load was applied to a concrete test wall of dimensions 1700 x 600 x 300 mm³ in increments of 10 kN, until the wall structurally failed at 107.6 kN. At each increment of applied load, the load was kept constant and the wall was scanned using GPR along profile lines across the wall surface. The measured radar amplitude responses of the GPR profiles, at each applied load interval, were reconstructed into depth-slice grids and presented at fixed depth-slice intervals. The corresponding depth-slices were subtracted from each data set to compare the radar amplitude response between datasets and monitor for changes in the radar amplitude response. At lower values of applied load (i.e., 0-60 kN), few changes were observed in the difference of radar amplitude responses between data sets. At higher values of applied load (i.e., 100 kN), closer to structural failure, larger differences in radar amplitude response between data sets were highlighted in the GPR data; up to 300% increase in radar amplitude response at some locations between the 0 kN and 100 kN radar datasets. Distinct regions were observed in the 100 kN difference dataset (i.e., 100 kN-0 kN) close to the location of the final failure crack. The key regions observed were a conical feature located between approximately 3.0-12.0 cm depth from surface and a vertical linear feature located approximately 12.1-21.0 cm depth from surface. These key regions have been interpreted as locations exhibiting an increased change in pore-space due to increased mechanical loading, or locations displaying an increase in volume of micro-cracks, or locations showing the development of a larger macro-crack. The experiment showed that GPR is a useful geophysical monitoring tool to assist engineers with highlighting and monitoring regions of large changes of radar amplitude response that may be associated with locations of significant internal structural change (e.g. crack development). GPR is a non-destructive technique that is fast to deploy in a production setting. GPR can assist with reducing risk and costs in future infrastructure maintenance programs by highlighting and monitoring locations within the structure exhibiting large changes in radar amplitude over calendar-time.

Keywords: 4D GPR, engineering geophysics, ground penetrating radar, infrastructure monitoring

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Sastry Y. Kandukuri, Isak Andersen

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Despite recent advances in the manufacturing sector, quality issues remain a frequent occurrence, and can result in fatal accidents, equipment downtime, and loss of life. Adequate quality is of high importance in high-risk industries such as sea-going vessels and offshore installations in which third party quality assurance and product control play an important essential role in ensuring manufacturing quality of critical components. Classification societies play a vital role in mitigating risk in these industries by making sure that all the stakeholders i.e. manufacturers, builders, and end users are provided with adequate rules and standards that effectively ensures components produced at a high level of quality based on the area of application and risk of its failure. Quality issues have also been linked to the lack of competence or negligence of stakeholders in supply value chain. However, continued actions and regulatory reforms through modernization of rules and requirements has provided additional tools for purchasers and manufacturers to confront these issues. Included among these tools are updated ‘approval of manufacturer class programs’ aimed at developing and implementing a set of standardized manufacturing quality metrics for use by the manufacturer and verified by the classification society. The establishment and collection of manufacturing and testing requirements described in these programs could provide various stakeholders – from industry to vessel owners – with greater insight into the state of quality at a given manufacturing facility, and allow stakeholders to anticipate better and address quality issues while simultaneously reducing unnecessary failures that are costly to the industry. The publication introduces, explains and discusses critical manufacturing and testing requirements set in a leading class society’s approval of manufacturer regime and its rationale and some case studies.

Keywords: classification society, manufacturing, materials processing, materials testing, quality control

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: Omid Pourabdollah, Mohsen Misaghian

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Overtopping is known as one the most important reasons for the failure of earth dams. In some cases, it has resulted in heavy damages and losses. Therefore, enhancing the safety of earth dams against overtopping has received much attention in the past four decades. In this paper, at first, the overtopping phenomena and its destructive consequences will be introduced. Then, overtopping failure mechanism of embankments will be described. Finally, different types of protection systems for stabilization of earth dams against overtopping will be presented. These include timber cribs, riprap and gabions, reinforced earth, roller compacted concrete, and the precast concrete blocks.

Keywords: embankment dam, overtopping, roller compacted concrete, wedge concrete block

Procedia PDF Downloads 135