Search results for: risk assessments

Authors: Alev Atak

Abstract:

In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Christina Kirsch, Adam Hatzigiannis

Abstract:

Rail operators and maintainers worldwide are increasingly replacing walking patrols in the rail corridor with mechanized track patrols -essentially data capture on trains- and on-screen reviews of track infrastructure in centralized review facilities. The benefit is that infrastructure workers are less exposed to the dangers of the rail corridor. The impact is a significant change in work design from walking track sections and direct observation in the real world to sedentary jobs in the review facility reviewing captured data on screens. Defects in rail infrastructure can have catastrophic consequences. Reviewer performance regarding accuracy and efficiency of reviews within the available time frame is essential to ensure safety and operational performance. Rail operators must optimize workload and resource loading to transition to on-screen reviews successfully. Therefore, they need to know what workload assessment methodologies will provide reliable and valid data to optimize resourcing for on-screen reviews. This paper compares objective workload measures, including track difficulty ratings and review distance covered per hour, and subjective workload assessments (NASA TLX) and analyses the link between workload and reviewer performance, including sensitivity, precision, and overall accuracy. An experimental study was completed with eight on-screen reviewers, including infrastructure workers and engineers, reviewing track sections with different levels of track difficulty over nine days. Each day the reviewers completed four 90-minute sessions of on-screen inspection of the track infrastructure. Data regarding the speed of review (km/ hour), detected defects, false negatives, and false positives were collected. Additionally, all reviewers completed a subjective workload assessment (NASA TLX) after each 90-minute session and a short employee engagement survey at the end of the study period that captured impacts on job satisfaction and motivation. The results showed that objective measures for tracking difficulty align with subjective mental demand, temporal demand, effort, and frustration in the NASA TLX. Interestingly, review speed correlated with subjective assessments of physical and temporal demand, but to mental demand. Subjective performance ratings correlated with all accuracy measures and review speed. The results showed that subjective NASA TLX workload assessments accurately reflect objective workload. The analysis of the impact of workload on performance showed that subjective mental demand correlated with high precision -accurately detected defects, not false positives. Conversely, high temporal demand was negatively correlated with sensitivity and the percentage of detected existing defects. Review speed was significantly correlated with false negatives. With an increase in review speed, accuracy declined. On the other hand, review speed correlated with subjective performance assessments. Reviewers thought their performance was higher when they reviewed the track sections faster, despite the decline in accuracy. The study results were used to optimize resourcing and ensure that reviewers had enough time to review the allocated track sections to improve defect detection rates in accordance with the efficiency-thoroughness trade-off. Overall, the study showed the importance of a multi-method approach to workload assessment and optimization, combining subjective workload assessments with objective workload and performance measures to ensure that recommendations for work system optimization are evidence-based and reliable.

Keywords: automation, efficiency-thoroughness trade-off, human factors, job design, NASA TLX, performance optimization, subjective workload assessment, workload analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

Abstract:

The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

Abstract:

Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

Abstract:

The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

Abstract:

Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

Abstract:

The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Etienne Sugewe

Abstract:

Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

Abstract:

The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Cai Qianyi

Abstract:

In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

Abstract:

As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

Abstract:

Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Emma E. Hellawell, Susan J. Hughes

Abstract:

BBrownfield sites are currently being redeveloped for residential use. Information on soil contamination on these former industrial sites is collected as part of the planning process by the local government. This research project analyses this untapped resource of environmental data, using site investigation data submitted to a local Borough Council, in Surrey, UK. Over 150 site investigation reports were collected and interrogated to extract relevant information. This study involved three phases. Phase 1 was the development of a database for soil contamination information from local government reports. This database contained information on the source, history, and quality of the data together with the chemical information on the soil that was sampled. Phase 2 involved obtaining site investigation reports for development within the study area and extracting the required information for the database. Phase 3 was the data analysis and interpretation of key contaminants to evaluate typical levels of contaminants, their distribution within the study area, and relating these results to current guideline levels of risk for future site users. Preliminary results for a pilot study using a sample of the dataset have been obtained. This pilot study showed there is some inconsistency in the quality of the reports and measured data, and careful interpretation of the data is required. Analysis of the information has found high levels of lead in shallow soil samples, with mean and median levels exceeding the current guidance for residential use. The data also showed elevated (but below guidance) levels of potentially carcinogenic polyaromatic hydrocarbons. Of particular concern from the data was the high detection rate for asbestos fibers. These were found at low concentrations in 25% of the soil samples tested (however, the sample set was small). Contamination levels of the remaining chemicals tested were all below the guidance level for residential site use. These preliminary pilot study results will be expanded, and results for the whole local government area will be presented at the conference. The pilot study has demonstrated the potential for this extensive dataset to provide greater information on local contamination levels. This can help inform regulators and developers and lead to more targeted site investigations, improving risk assessments, and brownfield development.

Keywords: Brownfield development, contaminated land, local government planning data, site investigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

Abstract:

Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

Abstract:

Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Evangelos G. Ilias, Panagiotis G. Ilias, Vasileios T. Popotas

Abstract:

The United Kingdom has one of the oldest railway networks in the world dating back to 1825 when the world’s first passenger railway was opened. The network has some 40,000 bridges of various construction types using a wide range of materials including masonry, steel, cast iron, wrought iron, concrete and timber. It is commonly accepted that the successful operation of the network is vital for the economy of the United Kingdom, consequently the cost effective maintenance of the existing infrastructure is a high priority to maintain the operability of the network, prevent deterioration and to extend the life of the assets. Every bridge on the railway network is required to be assessed every eighteen years and a structured approach to assessments is adopted with three main types of progressively more detailed assessments used. These assessment types include Level 0 (standardized spreadsheet assessment tools), Level 1 (analytical hand calculations) and Level 2 (generally finite element analyses). There is a degree of conservatism in the first two types of assessment dictated to some extent by the relevant standards which can lead to some structures not achieving the required load rating. In these situations, a Level 2 Assessment is often carried out using finite element analysis to uncover ‘latent strength’ and improve the load rating. If successful, the more sophisticated analysis can save on costly strengthening or replacement works and avoid disruption to the operational railway. This paper presents the ‘strengthening by assessment’ achieved by Level 2 analyses. The use of more accurate analysis assumptions and the implementation of non-linear modelling and functions (material, geometric and support) to better understand buckling modes and the structural behaviour of historic construction details that are not specifically covered by assessment codes are outlined. Metallic bridges which are susceptible to loss of section size through corrosion have largest scope for improvement by the Level 2 Assessment methodology. Three case studies are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the sophisticated Level 2 Assessment methodology using finite element analysis against the conservative approaches employed for Level 0 and Level 1 Assessments. One rail overbridge and two rail underbridges that did not achieve the required load rating by means of a Level 1 Assessment due to the inadequate restraint provided by U-Frame action are examined and the increase in assessed capacity given by the Level 2 Assessment is outlined.

Keywords: assessment, bridges, buckling, finite element analysis, non-linear modelling, strengthening

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

Abstract:

Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

Abstract:

Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sport requires deliberate and concerted plan and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young”. At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into the security breach and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children within 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. Majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack, touts, and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potentials of security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile, and Moniya axis = 72, Agbowo, Ajibode, and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun, and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan, and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru, and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentage. The respondents average age was 15.6 years old, and with 100% male. The instrument(questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72); intervention (r = 0.68) and the sustainable participation (r = 0.70).The relative contributions of sport preference on participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while sustainable participation of at risk teenager produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sport. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sport. While sustainable participation contributed positively to evolve at risk teenagers participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Mette Pedersen

Abstract:

This paper outlines the criteria that assessment specialists use when they design the 'Persuasive Essay' task for the four Advanced Placement World Language and Culture Exams (AP French, German, Italian, and Spanish). The 'Persuasive Essay' is a free-response, source-based, standardized measure of presentational writing. Each 'Persuasive Essay' item consists of three sources (an article, a chart, and an audio) and a prompt, which is a statement of the topic phrased as an interrogative sentence. Due to its richness of source materials and due to the amount of time that test takers are given to prepare for and write their responses (a total of 55 minutes), the 'Persuasive Essay' is the free-response task on the AP World Language and Culture Exams that goes to the greatest lengths to unleash the test takers' proficiency potential. The author focuses on the work that goes into designing the 'Persuasive Essay' task, outlining best practices for the selection of topics and sources, the interplay that needs to be present among the sources and the thinking behind the articulation of prompts for the 'Persuasive Essay' task. Using released 'Persuasive Essay' items from the AP World Language and Culture Exams and accompanying data on test taker performance, the author shows how different passages, and features of passages, have succeeded (and sometimes not succeeded) in eliciting writing proficiency among test takers over time. Data from approximately 215.000 test takers per year from 2014 to 2017 and approximately 35.000 test takers per year from 2012 to 2013 form the basis of this analysis. The conclusion of the study is that test taker performance improves significantly when the sources that test takers are presented with express directly opposing viewpoints. Test taker performance also improves when the interrogative prompt that the test takers respond to is phrased as a yes/no question. Finally, an analysis of linguistic difficulty and complexity levels of the printed sources reveals that test taker performance does not decrease when the complexity level of the article of the 'Persuasive Essay' increases. This last text complexity analysis is performed with the help of the 'ETS TextEvaluator' tool and the 'Complexity Scale for Information Texts (Scale)', two tools, which, in combination, provide a rubric and a fully-automated technology for evaluating nonfiction and informational texts in English translation.

Keywords: advanced placement world language and culture exams, designing presentational writing assessments, large-scale standardized assessments of written language proficiency, source-based language testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Ann P. Daunic, Nancy Corbett

Abstract:

Background and Significance: Researchers emphasize the role that motivation, self-esteem, and self-regulation play in children’s early adjustment to the school culture, including skills such as identifying their own feelings and understanding the feelings of others. As social-emotional growth, academic learning, and successful integration within culture and society are inextricably connected, the Social-Emotional Learning Foundations (SELF) curriculum was designed to integrate social-emotional learning (SEL) instruction within early literacy instruction (specifically, reading) for Kindergarten and first-grade students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. Storybook reading is a typically occurring activity in the primary grades; thus SELF provides an intervention that is both theoretically and practically sound. Methodology: The researchers will report on findings from the first two years of a three-year study funded by the US Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences to evaluate the effects of the SELF curriculum versus “business as usual” (BAU). SELF promotes the development of self-regulation by incorporating instructional strategies that support children’s use of SEL related vocabulary, self-talk, and critical thinking. The curriculum consists of a carefully coordinated set of materials and pedagogy designed specifically for primary grade children at early risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties. SELF lessons (approximately 50 at each grade level) are organized around 17 SEL topics within five critical competencies. SELF combines whole-group (the first in each topic) and small-group lessons (the 2nd and 3rd in each topic) to maximize opportunities for teacher modeling and language interactions. The researchers hypothesize that SELF offers a feasible and substantial opportunity within the classroom setting to provide a small-group social-emotional learning intervention integrated with K-1 literacy-related instruction. Participating target students (N = 876) were identified by their teachers as potentially at risk for emotional or behavioral issues. These students were selected from 122 Kindergarten and 100 first grade classrooms across diverse school districts in a southern state in the US. To measure the effectiveness of the SELF intervention, the researchers asked teachers to complete assessments related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. A social-emotional learning related vocabulary assessment was administered directly to target students receiving small-group instruction. Data were analyzed using a 3-level MANOVA model with full information maximum likelihood to estimate coefficients and test hypotheses. Major Findings: SELF had significant positive effects on vocabulary, knowledge, and skills associated with social-emotional competencies, as evidenced by results from the measures administered. Effect sizes ranged from 0.41 for group (SELF vs. BAU) differences in vocabulary development to 0.68 for group differences in SEL related knowledge. Conclusion: Findings from two years of data collection indicate that SELF improved outcomes related to social-emotional learning and adjustment to the school culture. This study thus supports the integration of SEL with literacy instruction as a feasible and effective strategy to improve outcomes for K-1 students at risk for emotional and behavioral difficulties.

Keywords: Socio-cultural context for learning, social-emotional learning, social skills, vocabulary development

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Jonathan Glazzard

Abstract:

National student satisfaction data in England demonstrate that undergraduate students are less satisfied overall with assessment and feedback than other aspects of their higher education courses. Given that research findings suggest that high-quality feedback is a critical factor associated with academic achievement, it is important that feedback enables students to demonstrate improved academic achievement in their subsequent assessments. Given the growing importance of staff-student partnerships in higher education, this research examined students’ perceptions of assessment and feedback in one UK university. Students’ perceptions were elicited through the use of a university-wide survey which was completed by undergraduate students. In addition, three focus groups were used to provide qualitative student perception data across the three university Facilities. The data indicate that whilst students valued detailed feedback on their work, less detailed feedback could be compensated for by the development of pre-assessment literacy skills which are front-loaded into courses. Assessment literacy skills valued by students included the use of clear assessment criteria and assignment briefings which enabled students to fully understand the assessment task. Additionally, students valued assessment literacy pre-assessment tasks which enabled them to understand the standards which they were expected to achieve. Students valued opportunities for self and peer assessment prior to the final assessment and formative assessment feedback which matched the summative assessment feedback. Students also valued dialogic face-to-face feedback after receiving written feedback Above all, students valued feedback which was particular to their work and which gave recognition for the effort they had put into completing specific assessments. The data indicate that there is a need for higher education lecturers to receive systematic training in assessment and feedback which provides a comprehensive grounding in pre-assessment literacy skills.

Keywords: formative assessment, summative assessment, feedback, marking

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chi T. Cheung

Abstract:

Cooling energy consumption in the residential sector, different from shopping mall, office or commercial buildings, is significantly subject to occupant decisions where in-depth investigations are found limited. It shows that energy consumptions could be associated with housing types. Surveys have been conducted in existing Hong Kong public housings to understand the housing characteristics, apartment electricity demands, occupant’s thermal expectations, and air–conditioning usage patterns for further cooling energy-saving assessments. The aim of this study is to develop a hybrid cooling energy prediction model, which integrated by EnergyPlus (EP) and artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate cooling energy consumption in public residential sector. Sensitivity tests are conducted to find out the energy impacts with changing building parameters regarding to external wall and window material selection, window size reduction, shading extension, building orientation and apartment size control respectively. Assessments are performed to investigate the relationships between cooling demands and occupant behavior on thermal environment criteria and air-conditioning operation patterns. The results are summarized into a cooling energy calculator for layman use to enhance the cooling energy saving awareness in their own living environment. The findings can be used as a directory framework for future cooling energy evaluation in residential buildings, especially focus on the occupant behavioral air–conditioning operation and criteria of energy-saving incentives.

Keywords: artificial neural network, cooling energy, occupant behavior, residential buildings, thermal environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Amir Saber Gharamaleki, Beitollah Alipour, Zeinab Faghfoori, Ahmad YariKhosroushahi

Abstract:

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent cancers and intestinal microbial community plays an important role in colorectal tumorigenesis. Probiotics have recently been assessed as effective anti-proliferative agents and thus this study was performed to examine whether CRC undergo apoptosis by treating with isolated Iranian native dairy yeast, Kluyveromyces marxianus YAS, secretion metabolites. The cytotoxicity assessments on cells (HT-29, Caco-2) were accomplished through 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay as well as qualitative DAPI (4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole staining) and quantitative (flow cytometry assessments) evaluations of apoptosis. To evaluate the main mechanism of apoptosis, Real time PCR method was applied. Kluyveromyces marxianus YAS secretions (IC50) showed significant cytotoxicity against HT-29 and Caco-2 cancer cell lines (66.57 % and 66.34 % apoptosis) similar to 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) while apoptosis only was developed in 27.57 % of KDR normal cells. The prophylactic effects of Kluyveromyces marxianus (PTCC 5195), as a reference yeast, was not similar to Kluyveromyces marxianus YAS indicating strain dependency of bioactivities on CRC disease prevention. Based on real time PCR results, the main cytotoxicity is related to apoptosis phenomenon and the core related mechanism is depended on the overexpression of BAX, CASP 9, CASP 8 and CASP 3 inducing apoptosis genes. However, several investigations should be conducted to precisely determine the effective compounds to be used as anticancer therapeutics in the future.

Keywords: anticancer, anti-proliferative, apoptosis, cytotoxicity, yeast

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Michael Smalenberger

Abstract:

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) are computer-based platforms which can incorporate artificial intelligence to provide step-by-step guidance as students practice problem-solving skills. ITS can replicate and even exceed some benefits of one-on-one tutoring, foster transactivity in collaborative environments, and lead to substantial learning gains when used to supplement the instruction of a teacher or when used as the sole method of instruction. A common facet of many ITS is their use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) to estimate parameters necessary for the implementation of the artificial intelligence component, and for the probability of mastery of a knowledge component relevant to the ITS. While various techniques exist to estimate these parameters and probability of mastery, none directly and reliably ask the user to self-assess these. In this study, 111 undergraduate students used an ITS in a college-level introductory statistics course for which detailed transaction-level observations were recorded, and users were also routinely asked direct questions that would lead to such a self-assessment. Comparisons were made between these self-assessed values and those obtained using commonly used estimation techniques. Our findings show that such self-assessments are particularly relevant at the early stages of ITS usage while transaction level data are scant. Once a user’s transaction level data become available after sufficient ITS usage, these can replace the self-assessments in order to eliminate the identifiability problem in BKT. We discuss how these findings are relevant to the number of exercises necessary to lead to mastery of a knowledge component, the associated implications on learning curves, and its relevance to instruction time.

Keywords: Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, Intelligent Tutoring System, in vivo study, parameter estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Karen Koellner, Nanette Seago, Jennifer Jacobs, Helen Garnier

Abstract:

Although studies of teacher professional development (PD) are prevalent, surprisingly most have only produced incremental shifts in teachers’ learning and their impact on students. There is a critical need to understand what teachers take up and use in their classroom practice after attending PD and why we often do not see greater changes in learning and practice. This paper is based on a mixed methods efficacy study of the Learning and Teaching Geometry (LTG) video-based mathematics professional development materials. The extent to which the materials produce a beneficial impact on teachers’ mathematics knowledge, classroom practices, and their students’ knowledge in the domain of geometry through a group-randomized experimental design are considered. Included is a close-up examination of a small group of teachers to better understand their interpretations of the workshops and their classroom uptake. The participants included 103 secondary mathematics teachers serving grades 6-12 from two US states in different regions. Randomization was conducted at the school level, with 23 schools and 49 teachers assigned to the treatment group and 18 schools and 54 teachers assigned to the comparison group. The case study examination included twelve treatment teachers. PD workshops for treatment teachers began in Summer 2016. Nine full days of professional development were offered to teachers, beginning with the one-week institute (Summer 2016) and four days of PD throughout the academic year. The same facilitator-led all of the workshops, after completing a facilitator preparation process that included a multi-faceted assessment of fidelity. The overall impact of the LTG PD program was assessed from multiple sources: two teacher content assessments, two PD embedded assessments, pre-post-post videotaped classroom observations, and student assessments. Additional data were collected from the case study teachers including additional videotaped classroom observations and interviews. Repeated measures ANOVA analyses were used to detect patterns of change in the treatment teachers’ content knowledge before and after completion of the LTG PD, relative to the comparison group. No significant effects were found across the two groups of teachers on the two teacher content assessments. Teachers were rated on the quality of their mathematics instruction captured in videotaped classroom observations using the Math in Common Observation Protocol. On average, teachers who attended the LTG PD intervention improved their ability to engage students in mathematical reasoning and to provide accurate, coherent, and well-justified mathematical content. In addition, the LTG PD intervention and instruction that engaged students in mathematical practices both positively and significantly predicted greater student knowledge gains. Teacher knowledge was not a significant predictor. Twelve treatment teachers self-selected to serve as case study teachers to provide additional videotapes in which they felt they were using something from the PD they learned and experienced. Project staff analyzed the videos, compared them to previous videos and interviewed the teachers regarding their uptake of the PD related to content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge and resources used. The full paper will include the case study of Ana to illustrate the factors involved in what teachers take up and use from participating in the LTG PD.

Keywords: geometry, mathematics professional development, pedagogical content knowledge, teacher learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

Abstract:

The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

Abstract:

In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Tri Wisudawati, Radita Dwi Putera

Abstract:

The role of human resources is the basic capital in determining the purpose of a business place. Without the role of human resources, activities in the company will not run smoothly. Every business place always has a risk of accidents. The magnitude of the risk that occurs depends on the type of industry, technology, and risk control efforts made. Work-related accidents are accidents that occur due to work or while carrying out work. Welding MSMEs have a fairly high risk to health, safety and the environment both from the side of workers who can cause accidents and from the side of the work environment, which has the potential to become a hazard and risk. Participatory ergonomic intervention can be a feasible and effective approach to reducing exposure to work-related risk factors in developing country industries. Complaints about occupational health and safety experienced by workers in the welding workshop industry should be able to be overcome by implementing an ergonomic intervention approach. The analysis process includes HIRARC analysis, participatory ergonomics analysis, and SEM-PLS analysis. Hierarch analysis is carried out by assessing the level of severity and likelihood, as well as risk control. At the participatory ergonomics analysis stage, it is obtained from the organizational culture and organizational stakeholders. At the SEM-PLS stage, an analysis is carried out to see whether there is a strong relationship between the research variables in order to produce occupational health and safety (K3) and worker productivity in the welding shop better and in accordance with welding safety standards. So that the output of this study is how participatory ergonomics interventions affect working conditions to improve occupational health and safety and the productivity of welding workers.

Keywords: ergonomic partisipatory, health and safety, welding workers, welding safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 22