Search results for: regional climate model

Authors: Kevin Potoczny, Katsuichiro Goda

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The St. Lawrence lowlands extend from Ottawa to Quebec City and are known for large deposits of sensitive Leda clay. Leda clay deposits are responsible for many large landslides, such as the 1993 Lemieux and 2010 St. Jude (4 fatalities) landslides. Due to the large extent and sensitivity of Leda clay, regional hazard analysis for landslides is an important tool in risk management. A 2018 regional study by Farzam et al. on the susceptibility of Leda clay slopes to landslide hazard uses 1 arc second topographical data. A qualitative method known as Hazus is used to estimate susceptibility by checking for various criteria in a location and determine a susceptibility rating on a scale of 0 (no susceptibility) to 10 (very high susceptibility). These criteria are slope angle, geological group, soil wetness, and distance from waterbodies. Given the flat nature of St. Lawrence lowlands, the current assessment fails to capture local slopes, such as the St. Jude site. Additionally, the data did not allow one to analyze failure planes accurately. This study majorly improves the analysis performed by Farzam et al. in two aspects. First, regional assessment with high resolution data allows for identification of local locations that may have been previously identified as low susceptibility. This then provides the opportunity to conduct a more refined analysis on the failure plane of the slope. Slopes derived from 1 arc second data are relatively gentle (0-10 degrees) across the region; however, the 1- and 2-meter resolution 2022 HRDEM provided by NRCAN shows that short, steep slopes are present. At a regional level, 1 arc second data can underestimate the susceptibility of short, steep slopes, which can be dangerous as Leda clay landslides behave retrogressively and travel upwards into flatter terrain. At the location of the St. Jude landslide, slope differences are significant. 1 arc second data shows a maximum slope of 12.80 degrees and a mean slope of 4.72 degrees, while the HRDEM data shows a maximum slope of 56.67 degrees and a mean slope of 10.72 degrees. This equates to a difference of three susceptibility levels when the soil is dry and one susceptibility level when wet. The use of GIS software is used to create a regional susceptibility map across the St. Lawrence lowlands at 1- and 2-meter resolutions. Failure planes are necessary to differentiate between small and large landslides, which have so far been ignored in regional analysis. Leda clay failures can only retrogress as far as their failure planes, so the regional analysis must be able to transition smoothly into a more robust local analysis. It is expected that slopes within the region, once previously assessed at low susceptibility scores, contain local areas of high susceptibility. The goal is to create opportunities for local failure plane analysis to be undertaken, which has not been possible before. Due to the low resolution of previous regional analyses, any slope near a waterbody could be considered hazardous. However, high-resolution regional analysis would allow for more precise determination of hazard sites.

Keywords: hazus, high-resolution DEM, leda clay, regional analysis, susceptibility

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Authors: William Burdick

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Manmade climate change is an existential threat that must be mitigated at the earliest opportunity. The role of government in climate change mitigation is enacting and enforcing law and policy to affect substantial reductions in greenhouse gasses, in the short and long term, without substantial increases in the cost of energy. To be optimally effective those laws and policies must be established and enforced based on peer reviewed evidence and scientific facts and result in substantial outcomes in years, not decades. Over the next fifty years, New York’s 2019 Climate Change and Community Protection Act and 2021 All Electric Building Act that mandate replacing natural gas heating systems with heat pumps will, immediately double annual heating costs and by 2075, yield less than 16.2% reduction in CO₂ emissions from heating systems in new housing units, less than a 13% reduction in total CO₂ emissions, and affect a $40B in cumulative additional heating cost, compared to natural gas fueled heating systems.

Keywords: climate change, mandate, heat pump, natural gas

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Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

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Authors: Sally Naji, Julie Gwilliam

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Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change, NSA tools, resilience, sustainability

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

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Authors: Lilian Mbinya Muasa

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Climate change is inevitable and a global challenge with long term implications to the sustainable development of many countries today. The negative impacts of climate change are creating far reaching social, economic and environmental problems threatening lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the world. Developing countries especially sub-Saharan countries are more vulnerable to climate change due to their weak ecosystem, low adaptive capacity and high dependency on rain fed agriculture. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are more vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their weak adaptive capacity and over-reliance on rain fed agriculture. In Kenya, 78% of the rural communities are poor farmers who heavily rely on rain fed agriculture thus are directly affected by climate change impacts.Currently, many parts of Kenya are experiencing successive droughts which are contributing to persistently unstable and declining agricultural productivity especially in semi arid eastern Kenya. As a result, thousands of rural communities repeatedly experience food insecurity which plunge them to an ever over-reliance on relief food from the government and Non-Governmental Organization In addition, they have adopted poverty coping strategies to diversify their income, for instance, deforestation to burn charcoal, sand harvesting and overgrazing which instead contribute to environmental degradation.This research was conducted in Makueni County which is classified as one of the most food insecure counties in Kenya and experiencing acute environmental degradation. The study aimed at analyzing the adaptive capacity to climate change across farming households of Makueni County in Kenya by, 1) analyzing adaptive capacity to climate change and agricultural productivity across farming households, 2) identifying factors that contribute to differences in adaptive capacity across farming households, and 3) understanding the relationship between climate change, agricultural productivity and adaptive capacity. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine adaptive capacity and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to determine Agricultural productivity per household. Increase in frequency of prolonged droughts and scanty rainfall. Preliminary findings indicate a magnanimous decline in agricultural production in the last 10 years in Makueni County. In addition, there is an over reliance of households on indigenous knowledge which is no longer reliable because of the unpredictability nature of climate change impacts. These findings on adaptive capacity across farming households provide the first step of developing and implementing action-oriented climate change policies in Makueni County and Kenya.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, agricultural productivity, climate change, vulnerability

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Authors: Adeola Adejumo, Oluwole David Adebayo, Muraina Kamilu Olanrewaju

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of some psychological factors (i.e, school climate, parental involvement and classroom interaction) on the learning gains of university undergraduates in Mathematics in Ibadan, Nigeria. Three hundred undergraduates who are on open distance learning education programme in the University of Ibadan and thirty mathematics lecturers constituted the study’s sample. Both the independent and dependent variables were measured with relevant standardized instruments and the data obtained was analyzed using multiple regression statistical method. The instruments used were school climate scale, parental involvement scale and classroom interaction scale. Three research questions were answered in the study. The result showed that there was significant relationship between the three independent variables (school climate, parental involvement and classroom interaction) on the students’ learning gain in mathematics and that the independent variables both jointly and relatively contributed significantly to the prediction of students’ learning gain in mathematics. On the strength of these findings, the need to enhance the school climate, improve the parents’ involvement in the student’s education and encourage students’ classroom interaction were stressed and advocated.

Keywords: school climate, parental involvement, ODL, learning gains, mathematics

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Authors: M. Bonello, D. Micallef, S. P. Borg

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Driven by increased comfort standards, but at the same time high energy consciousness, energy-efficient space cooling has become an essential aspect of building design. Its aims are simple, aiming at providing satisfactory thermal comfort for individuals in an interior space using low energy consumption cooling systems. In this context, evaporative cooling is both an energy-efficient and an eco-friendly cooling process. In the past two decades, several academic studies have been performed to determine the resulting thermal comfort produced by an evaporative cooling system, including studies on temperature profiles, air speed profiles, effect of clothing and personnel activity. To the best knowledge of the authors, no studies have yet considered the analysis of relative humidity (RH) profiles in a space cooled using evaporative cooling. Such a study will determine the effect of different humidity levels on a person's thermal comfort and aid in the consequent improvement designs of such future systems. Under this premise, the research objective is to characterise the resulting different RH profiles in a chamber micro-climate using the evaporative cooling system in which the inlet air speed, temperature and humidity content are varied. The chamber shall be modelled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in ANSYS Fluent. Relative humidity shall be modelled using a species transport model while the k-ε RNG formulation is the proposed turbulence model that is to be used. The model shall be validated with measurements taken using an identical test chamber in which tests are to be conducted under the different inlet conditions mentioned above, followed by the verification of the model's mesh and time step. The verified and validated model will then be used to simulate other inlet conditions which would be impractical to conduct in the actual chamber. More details of the modelling and experimental approach will be provided in the full paper The main conclusions from this work are two-fold: the micro-climatic relative humidity spatial distribution within the room is important to consider in the context of investigating comfort at occupant level; and the investigation of a human being's thermal comfort (based on Predicted Mean Vote – Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied [PMV-PPD] values) and its variation with different locations of relative humidity values. The study provides the necessary groundwork for investigating the micro-climatic RH conditions of environments cooled using evaporative cooling. Future work may also target the analysis of ways in which evaporative cooling systems may be improved to better the thermal comfort of human beings, specifically relating to the humidity content around a sedentary person.

Keywords: chamber micro-climate, evaporative cooling, relative humidity, thermal comfort

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Authors: Reza Mokhtari Malek Abadi, Mohsen Saghaei, Fatemeh Iman

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This paper investigates the indices of a creative city in Isfahan. Its main aim is to evaluate quantitative status of the creative city indices in Isfahan city, analyze the dispersion and distribution of these indices in Isfahan city. Concerning these, this study tries to analyze the creative city indices in fifteen area of Isfahan through secondary data, questionnaire, TOPSIS model, Shannon entropy and SPSS. Based on this, the fifteen areas of Isfahan city have been ranked with 12 factors of creative city indices. The results of studies show that fifteen areas of Isfahan city are not equally benefiting from creative indices and there is much difference between the areas of Isfahan city.

Keywords: grading, creative city, creative city evaluation indicators, regional planning model

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Authors: Tahseen Bibi

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Language is a source of communicating the ideas, emotions and feelings to others. Languages are different from one another on the basis of symbols and articulation. Regional languages play a role of unification in any country. National language of any country gives strength to its masses as it evaporates the mutual indifferences. There are various regional languages in Pakistan like Sindhi, Pushto, Hindko and Balochi. Hindko language dates back to the ancient times and the Hindko speakers can also easily understand and speak Urdu language. Urdu language is an amalgam of various languages. These languages are interconnected. Thus we can draw an analogy between the two languages under discussion on the basis of the pronunciation. The research will show that there are so many words in both the languages which have the similar pronunciation. It will further tell that the roots of Urdu language lie in Hindko. The reason behind this resemblance is that Urdu has got extracted from Hindko and other languages. Hindko language has played a prominent role in the development of Urdu language. Thus the role of Hindko language in the emergence and development of Urdu cannot be denied. This article will use the qualitative and comparative study as methodology. The research will highlight that there is close resemblance in both the languages on the basis of pronunciation, signifying that Urdu language has been extracted from Hindkon language.

Keywords: Hindko, Urdu, regional languages, vocabulary

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Authors: Emmanuel Olasope Bamigboye, Ismail Oladeji Oladosu

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Local people of south-western Nigeria like in other climes, continue to be confronted with the vagaries of changing environments. Through the modification of existing practice and shifting resource base, their strategies for coping with change have enabled them to successfully negotiate the shifts in climate change and the environment. This article analyses indigenous adaptation strategies for climate change with a view to enhancing sustainable crop farming in south –western Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 340 respondents from the two major ecological zones (Forest and Derived Savannah) for good geographical spread. The article draws on mixed methods of qualitative research, literature review, field observations, informal interview and multinomial logit regression to capture choice probabilities across the various options of climate change adaptation options among arable crop farmers. The study revealed that most 85.0% of the arable crop farmers were males. It also showed that the use of local climate change adaptation strategies had no relationship with the educational level of the respondents as 77.3% had educational experiences at varying levels. Furthermore, the findings showed that seven local adaptation strategies were commonly utilized by arable crop farmers. Nonetheless, crop diversification, consultation with rainmakers and involvement in non-agricultural ventures were prioritized in the order of 1-3, respectively. Also, multinomial logit analysis result showed that at p ≤ 0.05 level of significance, household size (P<0.08), sex (p<0.06), access to loan(p<0.16), age(p<0.07), educational level (P<0.17) and functional extension contact (P<0.28) were all important in explaining the indigenous climate change adaptation utilized by the arable crops farmers in south-western Nigeria. The study concluded that all the identified local adaptation strategies need to be integrated into the development process for sustainable climate change adaptation.

Keywords: crop diversification, climate change, adaptation option, sustainable, small farmers

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Authors: Enayatollah Yazdani

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In the post-Cold War era, the world is facing a new emerging global order with the rise of multiple actors in the international arena. China, as a rising global power, has great leverage in internal relations. In particular, during the last two decades, China has rapidly transformed its economy into a global leader in advanced technologies. As a rising power and as one of the two major founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China has tried to use this regional organization, which has the potential to become an important political and security organization of the major states located in the vast Eurasian landmass, for its “go global” strategy. In fact, for Beijing, the SCO represents a new and unique cooperation model, reflecting its vision of a multipolar world order. China has used the SCO umbrella as a multilateral platform to address external threats posed by non-state actors on its vulnerable western border; to gain a strong economic and political foothold in Central Asia without putting the Sino-Russian strategic partnership at risk; and to enhance its energy security through large-scale infrastructure investment in, and trade with, the Central Asian member states. In other words, the SCO is one of the successful outcomes of Chines foreign policy in the post-Cold War era. The expansion of multilateral ties all over the world by dint of pursuing institutional strategies as SCO identifies China as a more constructive power. SCO became a new model of cooperation that was formed on the remains of collapsed Soviet system and predetermined China's geopolitical role in the region. As the fast developing effective regional mechanism, SCO now has more of an external impact on the international system and forms a new type of interaction for promoting China's grand strategy of 'peaceful rise.' This paper aims to answer this major question: How the Chinese government has manipulated the SCO for its foreign policy and global and regional influence? To answer this question, the main discussion is that with regard to the SCO capabilities and politico-economic potential, this organization has been used by China as a platform to expand influence beyond its borders.

Keywords: China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Central Asia, global policy, foreign policy

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Authors: Tas Yong Koh, Steve Rowlinson, Yuzhong Shen

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In construction safety management, safety climate has long been linked to workers' safety behaviors and performance. For this reason, safety climate concept and tools have been used as heuristics to diagnose a range of safety-related issues by some progressive contractors in Hong Kong and elsewhere. However, as a diagnostic tool, safety climate tends to treat the different components of the climate construct in a linear fashion. Safety management in construction projects, in reality, is a multi-faceted and multilevel phenomenon that resembles a complex system. Hence, understanding safety management in construction projects requires not only the understanding of safety climate but also the organizational-systemic nature of the phenomenon. Our involvement, diagnoses, and interpretations of a range of safety climate-related issues which culminated in the project’s sub-optimum safety performance in an infrastructure construction project have brought about such revelation. In this study, a range of data types had been collected from various hierarchies of the project site organization. These include the frontline workers and supervisors from the main and sub-contractors, and the client supervisory personnel. Data collection was performed through the administration of safety climate questionnaire, interviews, observation, and document study. The findings collectively indicate that what had emerged in parallel of the seemingly linear climate-based exploration is the exposition of the organization-systemic nature of the phenomenon. The results indicate the negative impacts of climate perceptions mismatch, insufficient work planning, and risk management, mixed safety leadership, workforce negative attributes, lapsed safety enforcement and resources shortages collectively give rise to the project sub-optimum safety performance. From the dynamic causation and multilevel perspective, the analyses show that the individual, group, and organizational levels issues are interrelated and these interrelationships are linked to negative safety climate. Hence the adoption of both perspectives has enabled a fuller understanding of the phenomenon of safety management that point to the need for an organizational-systemic intervention strategy. The core message points to the fact that intervention at an individual level will only meet with limited success if the risks embedded in the higher levels in group and project organization are not addressed. The findings can be used to guide the effective development of safety infrastructure by linking different levels of systems in a construction project organization.

Keywords: construction safety management, dynamic causation, multilevel analysis, safety climate

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Authors: Tesfahiwot Abay Weldearegay

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Ethiopian Federal ministry of health, in collaboration with different partners, provides financial support from sustainable development grants and global fund budget sources to Regional health science colleges through the regional health bureau to improve the quality of training and avail professionals based on the regional health bureau demand from the year of 2012 to 2019EC. It was mainly focused on health extension workers (HEW) Level III&IV, Health Information technicians (HIT), Emergency Medical technicians (EMT), laboratory technicians, Pharmacy technicians, Anesthesia Level V, Radiography, midwifery, Environmental health and biomedical equipment technician. Laboratory technician, Radiography and Pharmacy technician, was retooling program. The study aims at assessing the Utilization and outcome of budgets transferred through regional health bureau to regional health science colleges. The study used both quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop sufficient data to explain the utilization of the budget, and outcomes obtained from the transferred budget and to identify the gaps. The data for the study were obtained through structured questionnaires and interviews was conducted to increase the reliability of the data. Nationally, students enrolled in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support for RHB to improve the quality of training were 87 840 students and the total Budget transferred, according to MOU was 895,752,038 Ethiopian birr. Among the students enrolled nationally in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support only 72% of students have graduated from different disciplines. In Hareri and Addis Ababa, all enrolled students were graduated (100%). At the same time, Oromia 69%, Amara 77%, SNNP 58% students graduated, respectively. The demand of the regional health bureau and the enrollment capacity of health science colleges increased from year to year. The financial support added great value to the HSCs to cop with problems related to student fees, skill lab materials and renovation.

Keywords: emergency medical technician, radiography, Biomedical, health extension

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Authors: Gulfam Hasan, Ijaz Ashraf, Saleem Ashraf, Muhammad Rafay Muzammil, Salman Asghar, Shafiq-Ur-Rehman Zia

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The word “climate change” has become the most popular term when anyone observes any uncertain climate variation in their respective region. Asian countries are more prone to the impact of this phenomenon, and Pakistan is the leading affected country. Last few years, governments all over the world have been trying to cater to this issue for the best entrust of their population, especially agriculture. Now the farmers in Pakistan are fully aware of the term “climate change” and are more concerned about its solutions. On the other hand, developed countries like the USA are setting a benchmark for developing countries in every sphere of life. Based on cultural and other variations, the research was carried out to identify the behavior of farmers regarding the same issue. Cross-sectional survey research was designed for an in-depth study of relevant research questions. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in Pakistan, while virtual and face-to-face interviews were conducted in the Indiana State of the USA. The results of the present study and the responses of farmers were very interesting. The common climate change mitigation strategies suggested by farmers of both countries were less use of motor vehicles (replacement with bicycles in the circle of 10 Km), less dependency on chemical fertilizers (increased use of Manure, Bio-fertilizer, Compost), and plantation of the tree. The difference of opinion was in less government interest, lack of farmers’ education, political instability (views of Pakistani farmers), awareness of local communities, self-satisfaction, and economic disparities (views of USA farmers). Based on the given evidence, it was recommended that there is a dire need to address the climate change issue all over the world without discrimination of race, color, region, or religion. Because it will affect not only agriculture but also the real effect will be on HUMANITY.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation strategies, forests, biodiversity

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Authors: Judith Klostermann, Miguel Segura, Wilma Jans, Dragana Bojovic, Isadora Christel Jimenez, Francisco Doblas-Reyees, Judit Snethlage

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The Climate Data Store (CDS), developed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Union, is intended to become a key instrument for exploring climate data. The CDS contains both raw and processed data to provide information to the users about the past, present and future climate of the earth. It allows for easy and free access to climate data and indicators, presenting an important asset for scientists and stakeholders on the path for achieving a more sustainable future. The C3S Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) is assessing the quality of the CDS by undertaking a comprehensive user requirement assessment to measure the users’ satisfaction. Recommendations will be developed for the improvement and expansion of the CDS datasets and products. User requirements will be identified on the fitness of the datasets, the toolbox, and the overall CDS service. The EQC function of the CDS will help C3S to make the service more robust: integrated by validated data that follows high-quality standards while being user-friendly. This function will be closely developed with the users of the service. Through their feedback, suggestions, and contributions, the CDS can become more accessible and meet the requirements for a diverse range of users. Stakeholders and their active engagement are thus an important aspect of CDS development. This will be achieved with direct interactions with users such as meetings, interviews or workshops as well as different feedback mechanisms like surveys or helpdesk services at the CDS. The results provided by the users will be categorized as a function of CDS products so that their specific interests will be monitored and linked to the right product. Through this procedure, we will identify the requirements and criteria for data and products in order to build the correspondent recommendations for the improvement and expansion of the CDS datasets and products.

Keywords: climate data store, Copernicus, quality, user engagement

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Authors: Bamlaku Tadesse Mengistu

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This article explores the link between climate change/variability and its adaptation/coping strategies with resource-based ethnic conflicts among the Afar, Issa-Somali, and Ittu-Oromo ethnic groups. The qualitative data were collected from community leaders, ordinary members of the communities, and administrative and political bodies at various levels through one-on-one interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. The quantitative data were also collected through a household survey from the randomly selected 128 households drawn from the three districts of Mieso-Mullu, Mieso, and Amibara districts. The study shows that there is a causal relationship between resource scarcity impacted by climate change/variability and ethnic conflicts. The study reveals that the increasing nature of resource scarcity and environmental problems, and also the changing nature of ethnic diversity will aggravate the resource-based inter-ethnic conflicts.

Keywords: Eastern Ethiopia, ethnic conflict, climate change, Afar, Issa, Ittu

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Authors: Nayden Takev, Remy van Leeuwen, Shiva Chotoe, Hani Alers, Xiao Peng

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Citizens, businesses, and public authorities all around the world are becoming aware of the impact that they have on the environment. Currently, climate change is an apparent cause to urge everyone to act and move to sustainable energy solutions. After the Paris Climate Agreement, every country has thought of a way to cut down carbon emissions. The Netherlands formulated the National Climate Agreement. “The government’s central goal with the National Climate Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands by 49% compared to 1990 levels. At a European level, the government is advocating a 55% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.” [5]. From a survey of the CBS, it is apparent that citizens are not putting in as much effort into the transition to sustainable energy as the government would like them to. After analysing the data, it became clear that the citizens miss the motivation to switch to sustainable energy because they do not believe it is urgent at this point and it is too expensive for them [2]. This needs to be changed. The citizens need to be aware of their impact on the climate and the advantages that this process will bring them. For example, the implementation of smart home displays 4 for real time energy measuring will give the citizens an overview of their energy usage so they are aware of the impact they have. Researchers have also found that the citizens must be included in the decision-making aimed at changing their behaviour [4, 3, 1]. In the future, the government will need to include the citizens when they create campaigns, strategies or introduce new policies [7, 6]. By including and informing the citizens about the policies it will be more attractive for them to choose sustainable energy. However, is all of this enough to motivate the citizens towards energy transition? Or are there other and better ways to do it?

Keywords: Awereness, Energy Transition, Netherlands, citizens

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Authors: Manuel Jose Oyson

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in its most recent report for the entire world “to both mitigate and adapt to climate change if it is to effectively avoid harmful climate impacts.” The IPCC observed “with high confidence” a more rapid rise in total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions from 2000 to 2010 than in the past three decades that “were the highest in human history”, which if left unchecked will entail a continuing process of global warming and can alter the climate system. Current efforts, however, to respond to the threat of global warming, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on states, and fail to involve Transnational Corporations (TNCs) which are responsible for a vast amount of GHG emissions. Involving TNCs in the search for solutions to climate change is consistent with an acknowledgment by contemporary international law that there is an international role for other international persons, including TNCs, and departs from the traditional “state-centric” response to climate change. Putting the focus of GHG emissions away from states recognises that the activities of TNCs “are not bound by national borders” and that the international movement of goods meets the needs of consumers worldwide. Although there is no legally-binding instrument that covers TNC activities or legal responsibilities generally, TNCs have increasingly been made legally responsible under international law for violations of human rights, exploitation of workers and environmental damage, but not for climate change damage. Imposing on TNCs a legally-binding obligation to reduce their GHG emissions or a legal liability for climate change damage is arguably formidable and unlikely in the absence a recognisable source of obligation in international law or municipal law. Instead a recourse to “soft law” and non-legally binding instruments may be a way forward for TNCs to reduce their GHG emissions and help in addressing climate change. Positive effects have been noted by various studies to voluntary approaches. TNCs have also in recent decades voluntarily committed to “soft law” international agreements. This development reflects a growing recognition among corporations in general and TNCs in particular of their corporate social responsibility (CSR). While CSR used to be the domain of “small, offbeat companies”, it has now become part of mainstream organization. The paper argues that TNCs must voluntarily commit to reducing their GHG emissions and helping address climate change as part of their CSR. One, as a serious “global commons problem”, climate change requires international cooperation from multiple actors, including TNCs. Two, TNCs are not innocent bystanders but are responsible for a large part of GHG emissions across their vast global operations. Three, TNCs have the capability to help solve the problem of climate change. Assuming arguendo that TNCs did not strongly contribute to the problem of climate change, society would have valid expectations for them to use their capabilities, knowledge-base and advanced technologies to help address the problem. It would seem unthinkable for TNCs to do nothing while the global environment fractures.

Keywords: climate change law, corporate social responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, transnational corporations

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Authors: Paschal Arsein Mugabe

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This paper examines sustainable development planning in the context of environmental concerns in rural areas of the Tanzania. It challenges mainstream approaches to development, focusing instead upon transformative action for environmental justice. The goal is to help shape future sustainable development agendas in local government, international agencies and civil society organisations. Research methods: The approach of the study is geographical, but also involves various Trans-disciplinary elements, particularly from development studies, sociology and anthropology, management, geography, agriculture and environmental science. The research methods included thematic and questionnaire interviews, participatory tools such as focus group discussion, participatory research appraisal and expert interviews for primary data. Secondary data were gathered through the analysis of land use/cover data and official documents on climate, agriculture, marketing and health. Also several earlier studies that were made in the area provided an important reference base. Findings: The findings show that, agricultural sustainability in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by district and by income category. Also food security cannot be explained by climate as the only influencing factor. A combination of economic, political and socio-cultural context of the community are crucial. Conclusively, it is worthy knowing that people understand their relationship between climate change and their livelihood.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, environment, sustainable development

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

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Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

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Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

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Authors: R. Niranchana, K. Meena Alias Jeyanthi

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As a result of the present climate change dilemma, the energy balancing strategy is to construct a sustainable environment has become a top concern for researchers worldwide. The environment itself has always been a solution from the earliest days of human evolution. Carbon capture begins with its accurate estimation and monitoring credit inventories, and its efficient use. Sustainable urban planning with deliverables of re-use energy models might benefit from assessment methods like biomass carbon credit ranking. The term "biomass energy" refers to the various ways in which living organisms can potentially be converted into a source of energy. The approaches that can be applied to biomass and an algorithm for evaluating carbon credits are presented in this paper. The micro-climate evaluation using Computational Fluid dynamics was carried out across the location (1 km x1 km) at Dindigul, India (10°24'58.68" North, 77°54.1.80 East). Sustainable Urban design must be carried out considering environmental and physiological convection, conduction, radiation and evaporative heat exchange due to proceeding solar access and wind intensities.

Keywords: biomass, climate assessment, urban planning, multi-regression, carbon estimation algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Loide Sambo

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Achieving energy security has, in the past few decades, become one of the main goals in the security agenda of every country around the world. For Southern African Countries (SAC) the aim is not different, yet these countries face a particular challenge in the pursuit of their energy security. More than just secure enough energy sources to fuel their industrial and societal needs, SAC have as well to ensure that they trade their rich energy resources to the global market in a way that promotes and safeguards their economic development objectives. Considering the relevance of this issue to the SAC, the present paper explores the possibility of these countries to achieve energy security through regional cooperation, under the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) platform. It discusses the challenges and opportunities for advancing energy security in this region through cooperation. After analyzing the data through the documentary analysis method, it was found that regional cooperation among SAC to improve energy security is not effective since cooperation in the region is still very susceptible to a plethora of challenges, such as political instability, lack of development of infrastructure and expertise, lack of good governance, lack of sense of cohesiveness, and most important lack of political commitment. It was also found that significant commitment on regional cooperation had been centered on the electricity sub-sector due to the region’s huge electricity deficit. Thus less commitment is dedicated to the development and policy harmonization of the other sub-sectors such as the one of natural gas and oil, for instance. Hence, it is recommended that the leadership of the SAC is fully committed to cooperate and harmonize the policies, the strategic plans, as well as the infrastructure concerning to all the natural energy resources and its respective sub-sectors. This would provide the SAC significant leverage to negotiate for the energy market access, ensuring that the region’s energy commodities are traded, while the countries themselves retain enough energy to sustain their economic growth and development, improving, therefore, their energy security.

Keywords: regional cooperation, energy security, economic development, political commitment

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Authors: Rossella Arcucci, Luisa D'Amore, Simone Celestino, Giuseppe Scotti, Giuliano Laccetti

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This work is the first dowel in a rather wide research activity in collaboration with Euro Mediterranean Center for Climate Changes, aimed at introducing scalable approaches in Ocean Circulation Models. We discuss designing and implementation of a parallel algorithm for solving the Variational Data Assimilation (DA) problem on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). The algorithm is based on the fully scalable 3DVar DA model, previously proposed by the authors, which uses a Domain Decomposition approach (we refer to this model as the DD-DA model). We proceed with an incremental porting process consisting of 3 distinct stages: requirements and source code analysis, incremental development of CUDA kernels, testing and optimization. Experiments confirm the theoretic performance analysis based on the so-called scale up factor demonstrating that the DD-DA model can be suitably mapped on GPU architectures.

Keywords: data assimilation, GPU architectures, ocean models, parallel algorithm

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Authors: B. Van Kessel, P. T. Kockelkorn, T. R. Speelman, T. C. Wierikx, C. Mai Van, T. A. Bogaard

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Saltwater intrusion is a common problem in estuaries around the world, as it could hinder the freshwater supply of coastal zones. This problem is likely to grow due to climate change and sea-level rise. The influence of these factors on the saltwater intrusion was investigated for the Cai River in the Khanh Hoa province in Vietnam. In addition, the Cai River has high seasonal fluctuations in discharge, leading to increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season. Sea level rise, river discharge changes, river mouth widening and a proposed saltwater intrusion prevention dam can have influences on the saltwater intrusion but have not been quantified for the Cai River estuary. This research used both an analytical and numerical model to investigate the effect of the aforementioned factors. The analytical model was based on a model proposed by Savenije and was calibrated using limited in situ data. The numerical model was a 3D hydrodynamic model made using the Delft3D4 software. The analytical model and numerical model agreed with in situ data, mostly for tidally average data. Both models indicated a roughly similar dependence on discharge, also agreeing that this parameter had the most severe influence on the modeled saltwater intrusion. Especially for discharges below 10 m/s3, the saltwater was predicted to reach further than 10 km. In the models, both sea-level rise and river widening mainly resulted in salinity increments up to 3 kg/m3 in the middle part of the river. The predicted sea-level rise in 2070 was simulated to lead to an increase of 0.5 km in saltwater intrusion length. Furthermore, the effect of the saltwater intrusion dam seemed significant in the model used, but only for the highest position of the gate.

Keywords: Cai River, hydraulic models, river discharge, saltwater intrusion, tidal barriers

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Authors: Heribert R. Kaijage, Samuel N. A. Codjoe, Simon H. D. Mamuya, Mangi J. Ezekiel

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There is strong evidence that climate has changed significantly affecting various sectors including public health. The recommended feasible solution is adopting development trajectories which combine both mitigation and adaptation measures for improving resilience pathways. This approach demands a consideration for complex interactions between climate and social-ecological systems. While other sectors such as agriculture and water have developed climate resilience indices, the public health sector in Tanzania is still lagging behind. The aim of this study was to find out how can we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) linked with Remote Sensing (RS) technology and metrological information as tools to inform climate change resilient development and evaluation for the health sector. Methodological review was conducted whereby a number of studies were content analyzed to find appropriate indicators and indices for climate resilience household and their integration approach. These indicators were critically reviewed, listed, filtered and their sources determined. Preliminary identification and ranking of indicators were conducted using participatory approach of pairwise weighting by selected national stakeholders from meeting/conferences on human health and climate change sciences in Tanzania. DHS datasets were retrieved from Measure Evaluation project, processed and critically analyzed for possible climate change indicators. Other sources for indicators of climate change exposure were also identified. For the purpose of preliminary reporting, operationalization of selected indicators was discussed to produce methodological approach to be used in resilience comparative analysis study. It was found that household climate resilient index depends on the combination of three indices namely Household Adaptive and Mitigation Capacity (HC), Household Health Sensitivity (HHS) and Household Exposure Status (HES). It was also found that, DHS alone cannot complement resilient evaluation unless integrated with other data sources notably flooding data as a measure of vulnerability, remote sensing image of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Metrological data (deviation from rainfall pattern). It can be concluded that if these indices retrieved from DHS data sets are computed and scientifically integrated can produce single climate resilience index and resilience maps could be generated at different spatial and time scales to enhance targeted interventions for climate resilient development and evaluations. However, further studies are need to test for the sensitivity of index in resilience comparative analysis among selected regions.

Keywords: climate change, resilience, remote sensing, demographic and health surveys

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Authors: Raymond Ndhlovu, Jen Snowball

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It has long been known that the Cultural and Creative Industries (CCIs) have the potential to aid in physical, social and economic renewal and regeneration of towns and cities, hence their importance when dealing with regional development. The CCIs can act as a catalyst for activity and investment in an area because the ‘consumption’ of cultural activities will lead to the activities and use of other non-cultural activities, for example, hospitality development including restaurants and bars, as well as public transport. ‘Consumption’ of cultural activities also leads to employment creation, and diversification. However, CCIs tend to be clustered, especially around large cities. There is, moreover, a case for development of CCIs around smaller towns and cities, because they do not rely on high technology inputs, and long supply chains, and, their direct link to rural and isolated places makes them vital in regional development. However, there is currently little research on how to craft cultural policy for regions with smaller towns and cities. Using the Sarah Baartman District (SBDM) in South Africa as an example, this paper describes the process of developing cultural policy for a region that has potential, and existing, cultural clusters, but currently no one, coherent policy relating to CCI development. The SBDM was chosen as a case study because it has no large cities, but has some CCI clusters, and has identified them as potential drivers of local economic development. The process of developing cultural policy is discussed in stages: Identification of what resources are present; including human resources, soft and hard infrastructure; Identification of clusters; Analysis of CCI labour markets and ownership patterns; Opportunities and challenges from the point of view of CCIs and other key stakeholders; Alignment of regional policy aims with provincial and national policy objectives; and finally, design and implementation of a regional cultural policy.

Keywords: cultural and creative industries, economic impact, intrinsic value, regional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 213