Search results for: PU decision

Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

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Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Lee Waters, Itay Basevitch, Matthew Timmis

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Objectives: Eye tracking technology is a valuable method of assessing individuals gaze behaviour, but it does not unveil why they are engaging in certain practices. To address limitations in sport eye tracking research the present paper aims to investigate the gaze behaviours soccer officials engage in during successful and unsuccessful offside decisions, but also why. Methods: 20 male active amateur qualified (Level 4-7) soccer officials (Mage 22.5 SD 4.61 yrs) with an average experience of 41-50 games wore eye tracking technology during an applied attack versus defence drill. While reviewing the eye tracking footage, retrospective semi-structured interviews were conducted (M=20.4 min; SD=6.2; Range 11.7 – 26.8 min) and once transcribed inductive thematic analysis was performed. Findings and Discussion: To improve the understanding of gaze behaviours and how officials make sense of the environment, during the interview’s key constructs of offside, decision making, obstacles and emotions were summarised as the higher order themes while making offside decisions. Gaze anchoring was highlighted to be a successful technique to allow officials to see all relevant information, whereas the type of offside was emphasised to be a key factor in correct interpretation. Furthermore, specific decision-making training was outlined to be inconsistent and not always applicable. Conclusions: Key constructs have been identified and explained, which can be shared with soccer officials through training regimes. Eye tracking technology has also been shown to be a useful and innovative reflective tool to assist in the understanding of individuals gaze behaviours.

Keywords: eye tracking, gaze behvaiour, decision making, reflection

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Shahab Mirzaean Mahabadi, Elham Ebrahimi

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The urban development process in the historical urban context has predominately witnessed two main approaches: the first is the Preservation and conservation of the urban fabric and its value, and the second approach is urban renewal and redevelopment. The latter is generally supported by political and economic aspirations. These two approaches conflict evidently. The authors go through the history of urban planning in order to review the historical development of the mentioned approaches. In this article, various values which are inherent in the historical fabric of a city are illustrated by emphasizing on cultural identity and activity. In the following, it is tried to find an optimized plan which maximizes economic development and minimizes change in historical-cultural sites simultaneously. In the proposed model, regarding the decision maker’s intention, and the variety of functions, the selected zone is divided into a number of components. For each component, different alternatives can be assigned, namely, renovation, refurbishment, destruction, and change in function. The decision Variable in this model is to choose an alternative for each component. A set of decisions made upon all components results in a plan. A plan developed in this way can be evaluated based on the decision maker’s point of view. That is, interactions between selected alternatives can make a foundation for the assessment of urban context to design a historical-cultural landscape. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach is used to search for optimal future land use within the historical-culture landscape for a sustainable high-growth city.

Keywords: urban sustainability, green city, regeneration, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Adepoju A. A., Olapade-Ogunwole F., Ganiyu M. O.

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This study examined women's empowerment in cassava production in southwest Nigeria. The contributions of the five domains namely decision about agricultural production, decision-making power over productive resources, control of the use of income, leadership and time allocation to women disempowerment, profiled the women based on their socio-economics features and determined factors influencing women's disempowerment. Primary data were collected from the women farmers and processors through the use of structured questionnaires. Purposive sampling was used to select the LGAs and villages based on a large number of cassava farmers and processors, while cluster sampling was used to select 360 respondents in the study area. Descriptive statistics such as bar charts and percentages, Women Empowerment in Agriculture (WEAI), and the Logit regression model were used to analyze the data collected. The results revealed that 63.88% of the women were disempowered. Lack of decision-making power over productive resources; 36.47% and leadership skills; 33.26% contributed mostly to the disempowerment of the women. About 85% of the married women were disempowered, while 76.92% of the women who participated in social group activities were more empowered than their disempowered counterparts. The findings showed that women with more years of processing experience have the probability of being disempowered while those who engage in farming as a primary livelihood activity, and participate in social groups among others have the tendency to be empowered. In view of this, it was recommended that women should be encouraged to farm and contribute to social group activities.

Keywords: cassava, production, empowerment, southwest, Nigeria

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Authors: Pablo Cardozo Herrera

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In a dynamic market of Information Technology (IT) Service and with high quality demands and high performance requirements in decreasing costs, it is imperative that IT companies invest organizational effort in order to increase the effectiveness of their Information Technology Service Management (ITSM) processes through the improvement of ITSM project management and through solid support to the strategic decision-making process of IT directors. In this article, the author presents an analysis of common issues of IT companies around the world, with strategic needs of information unmet that provoke their ITSM processes and projects management that do not achieve the effectiveness and efficiency expected of their results. In response to the issues raised, the author proposes a framework consisting of an innovative theoretical framework model of ITSM management and a technological solution aligned to the Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) good practices guidance and ISO/IEC 20000-1 requirements. The article describes a research that proves the proposed framework is able to integrate, manage and coordinate in a holistic way, measurable and auditable, all ITSM processes and projects of IT organization and utilize the effectiveness assessment achieved for their strategic decision-making process increasing the process maturity level and improving the capacity of an efficient management.

Keywords: innovation in IT services, ITSM processes, ITIL and ISO/IEC 20000-1, IT service management, IT service excellence

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Authors: Javeria Arain, Saad Malik

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The management of solid waste is a crucial and essential aspect of urban environmental management especially in a city with an ever increasing population such as Karachi. The total amount of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e Iqbal town on average is 444.48 tons per day and landfill sites are a widely accepted solution for final disposal of this waste. However, an improperly selected site can have immense environmental, economical and ecological impacts. To select an appropriate landfill site a number of factors should be kept into consideration to minimize the potential hazards of solid waste. The purpose of this research is to analyse the study area for the construction of an appropriate landfill site for disposal of municipal solid waste generated from Gulshan e-Iqbal Town by using geospatial techniques considering hydrological, geological, social and geomorphological factors. This was achieved using analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analysis as a decision support tool with integration of geographic information sciences techniques. Eight most critical parameters, relevant to the study area, were selected. After generation of thematic layers for each parameter, overlay analysis was performed in ArcGIS 10.0 software. The results produced by both methods were then compared with each other and the final suitability map using AHP shows that 19% of the total area is Least Suitable, 6% is Suitable but avoided, 46% is Moderately Suitable, 26% is Suitable, 2% is Most Suitable and 1% is Restricted. In comparison the output map of fuzzy set theory is not in crisp logic rather it provides an output map with a range of 0-1, where 0 indicates least suitable and 1 indicates most suitable site. Considering the results it is deduced that the northern part of the city is appropriate for constructing the landfill site though a final decision for an optimal site could be made after field survey and considering economical and political factors.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy set theory, Geographic Information Sciences (GIS), Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

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Authors: Elzbieta Babula, Juhyun Park

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Tversky and Kahneman’s cumulative prospect theory assumes symmetric probability cumulation with regard to the reference point within decision weights. Theoretically, this model should be invariant under the change of the direction of probability cumulation. In the present study, this phenomenon is being investigated by creating a reference model that allows verifying the parameter interactions in the cumulative prospect theory specifications. The simultaneous parametric fitting of utility and weighting functions is applied to binary choice data from the experiment. The results show that the flexibility of the probability weighting function is a crucial characteristic allowing to prevent parameter interactions while estimating cumulative prospect theory.

Keywords: binary choice experiment, cumulative prospect theory, decision weights, parameter interactions

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Authors: Vareesha Masood, Ammara Gul, Nabeeha Areej, Muhammad Asif Masood, Hamna Imran

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The universal use of PDF files has prompted hackers to use them for malicious intent by hiding malicious codes in their victim’s PDF machines. Machine learning has proven to be the most efficient in identifying benign files and detecting files with PDF malware. This paper has proposed an approach using a decision tree classifier with parameters. A modern, inclusive dataset CIC-Evasive-PDFMal2022, produced by Lockheed Martin’s Cyber Security wing is used. It is one of the most reliable datasets to use in this field. We designed a PDF malware detection system that achieved 99.2%. Comparing the suggested model to other cutting-edge models in the same study field, it has a great performance in detecting PDF malware. Accordingly, we provide the fastest, most reliable, and most efficient PDF Malware detection approach in this paper.

Keywords: PDF, PDF malware, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier

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Authors: Serhat Tüzün, Tufan Demirel

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The objective of the present study is to select the most suitable location for a wind power plant station through Choquet integral method. The problem of selecting the location for a wind power station was considered as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The essential and sub-criteria were specified and location selection was expressed in a hierarchic structure. Among the main criteria taken into account in this paper are wind potential, technical factors, social factors, transportation, and costs. The problem was solved by using different approaches of Choquet integral and the best location for a wind power station was determined. Then, the priority weights obtained from different Choquet integral approaches are compared and commented on.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision making, choquet integral, fuzzy sets, location of a wind power plant

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Authors: Mustafa Tekke, Nurullah Kurt

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This study examined the level of career maturity of undergraduate foreign students in a public university in Malaysia by examining on cultural aspect by using the Career Maturity Inventory. Two hundred and twenty nine (Male = 106, Female = 123) foreign students studying in various majors completed the Career Maturity Inventory and the scores of the foreign students on the CMI suggested that they had slightly higher levels than the mean level of maturity in career. Result was also supported by testing the feeling about major, consideration of changing major and planning after graduation, which indicated that foreign students had their own career decision making. However, this result should be viewed with caution within ethnic difference.

Keywords: career maturity, foreign students, career decision making, feeling about major, knowledge about major

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Authors: Suwimol Apapol, Punrapha Praditpong

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The objectives of the study were to find out the frequencies of figures of speech in fragrance advertising captions as well as the types of figures of speech most commonly applied in captions. The relation between figures of speech and fragrance was also examined in order to analyze how figures of speech were used to represent fragrance. Thirty-five fragrance advertisements were randomly selected from the Internet. Content analysis was applied in order to consider the relation between figures of speech and fragrance. The results showed that figures of speech were found in almost every fragrance advertisement except one advertisement of several Goods service. Thirty-four fragrance advertising captions used at least one kind of figure of speech. Metaphor was most frequently found and also most frequently applied in fragrance advertising captions, followed by alliteration, rhyme, simile and personification, and hyperbole respectively which is in harmony with the research hypotheses as well.

Keywords: advertising captions, captions on internet, consumer purchasing decision, e-commerce

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Authors: Azizah Ismail, Zainab Khalifah, Abbas Mardani

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Sustainable community-based tourism through homestay programme is a growing niche market that has impacted destinations in many countries including Malaysia. With demand predicted to continue increasing, the importance of the homestay product will grow in the tourism industry. This research examines the sustainability criteria for homestay programme in Malaysia covering economic, socio-cultural and environmental dimensions. This research applied a two-stage methodology for data analysis. Specifically, the researcher implements a hybrid method which combines two multi-criteria decision making approaches. In the first stage of the methodology, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique is applied. Then, Analytical Network Process (ANP) is employed for the achievement of the objective of the current research. After factors identification and problem formulation, DEMATEL is used to detect complex relationships and to build a Network Relation Map (NRM). Then ANP is used to prioritize and find the weights of the criteria and sub-criteria of the decision model. The research verifies the framework of multi-criteria for sustainable community-based tourism from the perspective of stakeholders. The result also provides a different perspective on the importance of sustainable criteria from the view of multi-stakeholders. Practically, this research gives the framework model and helps stakeholders to improve and innovate the homestay programme and also promote community-based tourism.

Keywords: community-based tourism, homestay programme, sustainable tourism criteria, sustainable tourism development

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format

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Authors: Dana R. Thomson, Catherine Linard, Sabine Vanhuysse, Jessica E. Steele, Michal Shimoni, Jose Siri, Waleska Caiaffa, Megumi Rosenberg, Eleonore Wolff, Tais Grippa, Stefanos Georganos, Helen Elsey

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART) identify dozens of key indicators to help local decision-makers prioritize and track inequalities in health outcomes. However, presentations and discussions at the International Conference on Urban Health (ICUH) 2017 suggested that additional indicators are needed to make decisions and policies. A local decision-maker may realize that malaria or road accidents are a top priority. However, s/he needs additional health determinant indicators, for example about standing water or traffic, to address the priority and reduce inequalities. Health determinants reflect the physical and social environments that influence health outcomes often at community- and societal-levels and include such indicators as access to quality health facilities, access to safe parks, traffic density, location of slum areas, air pollution, social exclusion, and social networks. Indicator identification and disaggregation are necessarily constrained by available datasets – typically collected about households and individuals in surveys, censuses, and administrative records. Continued advancements in earth observation, data storage, computing and mobile technologies mean that new sources of health determinants indicators derived from 'big data' are becoming available at fine geographic scale. Big data includes high-resolution satellite imagery and aggregated, anonymized mobile phone data. While big data are themselves not representative of the population (e.g., satellite images depict the physical environment), they can provide information about population density, wealth, mobility, and social environments with tremendous detail and accuracy when combined with population-representative survey, census, administrative and health system data. The aim of this paper is to (1) flag to data scientists important indicators needed by health decision-makers at the city and sub-city scale - ideally free and publicly available, and (2) summarize for local decision-makers new datasets that can be generated from big data, with layperson descriptions of difficulties in generating them. We include SDGs and Urban HEART indicators, as well as indicators mentioned by decision-makers attending ICUH 2017.

Keywords: health determinant, health outcome, mobile phone, remote sensing, satellite imagery, SDG, urban HEART

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Authors: An-Yi Wang, Wei-Fong Kao, Shin-Han Tsai

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Introduction: Information as patient characteristics, resuscitation scene, resuscitation provider perspectives and families wish affects on resuscitation decision-making for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). There is no consistency consensus on how families and emergency physicians approach this decision. The main purpose of our study is to evaluate the characteristics of withholding resuscitation efforts arrival at the hospital. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed patients with OHCA without pre-hospital return-of-spontaneous circulation (ROSC) who was sent to our emergency department (ED) between January 2014 and December 2015. Baseline characteristics, pre-hospital course, and causes of the cardiopulmonary arrest among patients were compared. Results: In 2 years, total 155 arrest patients without pre-hospital ROSC was included. 33(21.3%) patients withhold the resuscitation efforts in ED with mean resuscitation duration 4.45 ± 7.04 minutes after ED arrival. In withholding group, the initial rhythm of arrests was all non-shockable. 9 of them received endotracheal intubation before decision-making. None of the patients in withhold resuscitation group survived to discharge. There was no significant difference among gender, underlying cardiovascular disease, malignancy, chronic renal disease, nor witness collapse between withhold and continue resuscitation groups. Univariate analysis showed there was lower percentage of bystander resuscitation (32.3% vs. 50.4%, p=0.071), and the lower percentage of transport via emergency medical service (EMS) (78.8% vs. 91.8%, p=0.054) in withholding group. Multivariate analysis showed old age (adjusted odds ratio=1.06, 95% C.I.=[1.02-1.11], p<0.05), with underlying respiratory insufficiency (adjusted odds ratio=12.16, 95% C.I.=[3.34-44.29], p<0.05), living at home compared with nursing home (adjusted odds ratio=37.75, 95% C.I.=[1.09-1110.70], p<0.05) were more likely to withhold resuscitation. Transport via EMS was more likely to continue resuscitation (adjusted odds ratio=0.11, 95% C.I.=[0.02-0.71], p<0.05). Conclusion: The decision-making for families and emergency physicians to withhold or continue resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is complex and multi-factorial. Continue resuscitation efforts in nursing home residents is high, and further study among this population is warranted.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary resuscitation, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, termination resuscitation, withhold resuscitation

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Authors: S. Turkan

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In this paper, the Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises data in 2014 were analyzed by data envelopment analysis. Data envelopment analysis is used to detect efficient decision-making units such as universities, hospitals, schools etc. by using inputs and outputs. The decision-making units in this study are enterprises. To detect efficient enterprises, some financial ratios are determined as inputs and outputs. For this reason, financial indicators related to productivity of enterprises are considered. The efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprises are detected via super efficiency model. According to the results, it is said that Mercedes-Benz is the most efficient foreign weighted owned capital enterprise in Turkey.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, super efficiency, logistic regression, financial ratios

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Authors: Cory Cannon

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In the current era of shrinking budgets, increasing amounts of worldwide natural disasters, state and non-state initiated conflicts within the world. The response has involved multinational coalitions to conduct effective military operations. The need for a Knowledge Management strategy when developing these coalitions have been overlooked in the past and the need for developing these accords early on will save time and help shape the way information and knowledge are transferred from the staff and action officers of the coalition to the decision-makers in order to make timely decisions within an ever changing environment. The aim of this paper is to show how Knowledge Management has developed within the United States military and how the transformation of working within a Combined/ Joint environment in both the Middle East and the Far East has improved relations between members of the coalitions as well as being more effective as a military force. These same principles could be applied to multinational corporations when dealing with cultures and decision-making processes.

Keywords: civil-military, culture, joint environment, knowledge management

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Authors: Elizabeth Perry, Jylana Sheats

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Scholars posit that there is an overlap between the fields of Behavioral Economics (BE) and Behavior Science (BSci)—and that consideration of concepts from both may facilitate a greater understanding of health decision-making processes. For example, the ‘intention-action gap’ is one BE concept to explain sup-optimal decision-making. It is described as having knowledge that does not translate into behavior. Complementary best BSci practices may provide insights into behavioral determinants and relevant behavior change techniques (BCT). Within the context of BSci, this exploratory study aimed to apply a BE concept with demonstrated effectiveness in financial decision-making to a health behavior: influenza (flu) vaccine uptake. Adults aged >18 years were recruited on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, a digital labor market where anonymous users perform simple tasks at low cost. Eligible participants were randomized into 2 groups, reviewed a scenario, and then completed a survey on the likelihood of receiving a flu shot. The ‘usual care’ group’s scenario included standard CDC guidance that supported the behavior. The ‘intervention’ group’s scenario included messaging about people who did not receive the flu shot. The framing was such that participants could learn from others’ (strangers) mistakes and the subsequent health consequences: ‘Last year, other people who didn’t get the vaccine were about twice as likely to get the flu, and a number of them were hospitalized or even died. Don’t risk it.’ Descriptive statistics and chi-square analyses were performed on the sample. There were 648 participants (usual care, n=326; int., n=322). Among racial/ethnic minorities (n=169; 57% aged < 40), the intervention group was 22% more likely to report that they were ‘extremely’ or ‘moderately’ likely to get the flu vaccine (p = 0.11). While not statistically significant, findings suggest that framing messages from the perspective of learning from the mistakes of unknown others coupled with the BCT ‘knowledge about the health consequences’ may help influence flu vaccine uptake among the study population. With the widely documented disparities in vaccine uptake, exploration of the complementary application of these concepts and strategies may be critical.

Keywords: public health, decision-making, vaccination, behavioral science

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Authors: Diego Saldo Alves, Marcelo Paveck Ayub

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The quality of accounting information is very important for the decision-making of managers, investors government and other information users. The opinion of the independent audit has a significant influence on the decision-making, especially the investors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the reasons that companies listed on Brazilian Stock Exchange B3, if they received qualified opinion and disclaimer of opinion of the independent auditors. We analyzed the reports of the independent auditors of 23 Brazilian companies listed in B3 that received qualified opinion and disclaimer of opinion between the years 2012 and 2017. The findings show that the companies do not comply the International Financial Reporting Standard, IFRS, also they did not provide documentation to prove the operations performed, did not account expenses, problems in corporate governance and internal controls.

Keywords: audit, disclaimer of opinion, independent auditors, qualified opinion

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Authors: Karina Zaccari, Ernesto Cordeiro Marujo

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This paper presents a Machine Learning (ML) approach to support Meningitis diagnosis in patients at a children’s hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The aim is to use ML techniques to reduce the use of invasive procedures, such as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) collection, as much as possible. In this study, we focus on predicting the probability of Meningitis given the results of a blood and urine laboratory tests, together with the analysis of pain or other complaints from the patient. We tested a number of different ML algorithms, including: Adaptative Boosting (AdaBoost), Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Decision Tree algorithm performed best, with 94.56% and 96.18% accuracy for training and testing data, respectively. These results represent a significant aid to doctors in diagnosing Meningitis as early as possible and in preventing expensive and painful procedures on some children.

Keywords: machine learning, medical diagnosis, meningitis detection, pediatric research

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Authors: Lucy W. Mburu, Richard Karanja, Simon N. Mwendia

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Over recent years, learners have experienced a constant need to access on demand knowledge that is fully aligned with the paradigm of cloud computing. As motivated by the global sustainable development goal to ensure inclusive and equitable learning opportunities, this research has developed a framework hinged on the knowledge-as-a-service architecture that utilizes knowledge from ambient learning systems. Through statistical analysis and decision tree modeling, the study discovers influential variables for ambient learning among university students. The main aim is to generate a platform for disseminating and exploiting the available knowledge to aid the learning process and, thus, to improve educational support on the ambient learning system. The research further explores how collaborative effort can be used to form a knowledge network that allows access to heterogeneous sources of knowledge, which benefits knowledge consumers, such as the developers of ambient learning systems.

Keywords: actionable knowledge, ambient learning, cloud computing, decision trees, knowledge as a service

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Authors: Y. Mehdipour, S. Ebrahimi, A. Jahanpour, F. Seyedzaei, B. Sabayan, A. Karimi, H. Amirifard

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Ischemic stroke is one of the common reasons for disability and mortality. The fourth leading cause of death in the world and the third in some other sources. Only 1/3 of the patients with ischemic stroke fully recover, 1/3 of them end in permanent disability and 1/3 face death. Thus, the use of predictive models to predict stroke has a vital role in reducing the complications and costs related to this disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to specify the effective factors and predict ischemic stroke with the help of DM methods. The present study was a descriptive-analytic study. The population was 213 cases from among patients referring to Ali ibn Abi Talib (AS) Hospital in Zahedan. Data collection tool was a checklist with the validity and reliability confirmed. This study used DM algorithms of decision tree for modeling. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-19 and SPSS Modeler 14.2. The results of the comparison of algorithms showed that CHAID algorithm with 95.7% accuracy has the best performance. Moreover, based on the model created, factors such as anemia, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, transient ischemic attacks, coronary artery disease, and atherosclerosis are the most effective factors in stroke. Decision tree algorithms, especially CHAID algorithm, have acceptable precision and predictive ability to determine the factors affecting ischemic stroke. Thus, by creating predictive models through this algorithm, will play a significant role in decreasing the mortality and disability caused by ischemic stroke.

Keywords: data mining, ischemic stroke, decision tree, Bayesian network

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Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Nazar Abbas Saqib, Muazzam A. Khan

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Heart Failure (HF) has become the major health problem in our society. The prevalence of HF has increased as the patient’s ages and it is the major cause of the high mortality rate in adults. A successful identification and progression of HF can be helpful to reduce the individual and social burden from this syndrome. In this study, we use a real data set of cardiac patients to propose a classification model for the identification and progression of HF. The data set has divided into three age groups, namely young, adult, and old and then each age group have further classified into four classes according to patient’s current physical condition. Contemporary Data Mining classification algorithms have been applied to each individual class of every age group to identify the HF. Decision Tree (DT) gives the highest accuracy of 90% and outperform all other algorithms. Our model accurately diagnoses different stages of HF for each age group and it can be very useful for the early prediction of HF.

Keywords: decision tree, heart failure, data mining, classification model

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Abdessadek Bendarag

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Sustainable economic growth is nowadays driving firms to extend toward the adoption of many green supply chain management (GSCM) solutions. However, the evaluation and selection of these solutions is a matter of concern that needs very serious decisions, involving complexity owing to the presence of various associated factors. To resolve this problem, a comparative analysis approach based on multi-criteria decision-making methods is proposed for adequate evaluation of sustainable supply chain management solutions. In the present paper, we propose an integrated decision-making model based on FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) to contribute to a better understanding and development of new sustainable strategies for industrial organizations. Due to the varied importance of the selected criteria, FAHP is used to identify the evaluation criteria and assign the importance weights for each criterion, while TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods employ these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate and rank the alternatives. The main objective is to provide a comparative analysis based on TOPSIS and PROMETHEE processes to help make sound and reasoned decisions related to the selection problem of GSCM solution.

Keywords: GSCM solutions, multi-criteria analysis, decision support system, TOPSIS, FAHP, PROMETHEE

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Ekin Nurbaş

Abstract:

One of the essential challenges in array signal processing, which has drawn enormous research interest over the past several decades, is estimating the direction of arrival (DOA) of plane waves impinging on an array of sensors. In recent years, the Compressive Sensing based DoA estimation methods have been proposed by researchers, and it has been discovered that the Compressive Sensing (CS)-based algorithms achieved significant performances for DoA estimation even in scenarios where there are multiple coherent sources. On the other hand, the Genetic Algorithm, which is a method that provides a solution strategy inspired by natural selection, has been used in sparse representation problems in recent years and provides significant improvements in performance. With all of those in consideration, in this paper, a method that combines the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches for Direction of Arrival (DoA) estimation in the Compressive Sensing (CS) framework is proposed. In this method, we generate a multi-objective optimization problem by splitting the norm minimization and reconstruction loss minimization parts of the Compressive Sensing algorithm. With the help of the Genetic Algorithm, multiple non-dominated solutions are achieved for the defined multi-objective optimization problem. Among the pareto-frontier solutions, the final solution is obtained with the multiple MCDM methods. Moreover, the performance of the proposed method is compared with the CS-based methods in the literature.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, direction of arrival esitmation, multi criteria decision making, compressive sensing

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Authors: Mariam Shah

Abstract:

The way the human mind interprets and comprehends the world it occupies has long been a topic of discussion amongst philosophers and phenomenologists. This paper will focus predominantly on the ideologies espoused by the phenomenologist Alfred Schutz and will investigate how we attribute meaning to an event through the process of typification, and the production and usage of ‘types' and ‘stereotypes.' This paper will then discuss how subjective ideologies innate within us result in unique and subjective decision outcomes, based on a phenomenologically influenced theoretical framework which will illustrate how we form ‘types’ in order to ‘typecast’ and form judgements of everything and everyone we experience. The framework used will be founded in theory espoused by Alfred Schutz, and will review the different types of knowledge we rely on innately to inform our judgements, the relevance we attribute to the information which we acquire, and how we consciously and unconsciously apply this framework to everyday situations. An assessment will then be made of the potential impact that these subjective meaning structures can present when dispensing justice in criminal courts. This paper will investigate how these subjective meaning structures can influence our consciousness on both a conscious and unconscious level, and how this could potentially result in bias judicial outcomes due to negative ‘types’ or ‘stereotypes.' This paper will ultimately illustrate that we unconsciously and unreflexively use pre-formed types and stereotypes to inform our judgements and give meaning to what we have just experienced.

Keywords: Alfred Schutz, criminal courts, decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, Schutzian stereotypes, types, typification

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Authors: Ewa M. Laskowska, Jorn Vatn

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Industry 4.0 focuses on digital optimization of industrial processes. The idea is to use extracted data in order to build a decision support model enabling use of those data for real time decision making. In terms of predictive maintenance, the desired decision support tool would be a model enabling prognostics of system's health based on the current condition of considered equipment. Within area of system prognostics and health management, a commonly used health indicator is Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of a system. Because the RUL is a random variable, it has to be estimated based on available health indicators. Health indicators can be of different types and come from different sources. They can be process variables, equipment performance variables, data related to number of experienced failures, etc. The aim of this study is the analysis of performance variables of emergency shutdown valves (ESV) used in oil and gas industry. ESV is inspected periodically, and at each inspection torque and time of valve operation are registered. The data will be analyzed by means of machine learning or statistical analysis. The purpose is to investigate whether the available data could be used as a health indicator for a prognostic purpose. The second objective is to examine what is the most efficient way to incorporate the data into predictive model. The idea is to check whether the data can be applied in form of explanatory variables in Markov process or whether other stochastic processes would be a more convenient to build an RUL model based on the information coming from registered data.

Keywords: emergency shutdown valves, health indicator, prognostics, remaining useful lifetime, RUL

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Authors: Norazlan Alias, Mohd. Hasimi Yaacob

Abstract:

This study examines the impact of governance structure via corporate restructuring decision on selected firm characteristics and performance. Results of selected ratios that represent corporate decision, governance structure and performance in pre and post restructuring are analyzed for some conclusions. This study uses annual data of companies that are consistently listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia and announced completed corporate restructuring. The results show that only debt ratio is significantly different before and after asset restructuring. This study concludes that firms do not view corporate restructuring namely asset restructuring as an opportunity to simultaneous enhance governance structure that could also contribute enhance firm performance and board of directors’ structure subsequent to asset restructuring only has significantly influence on changing capital structure but not on firm performance.

Keywords: board of directors, capital structure, corporate restructuring, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 401