Search results for: prescription trend

Authors: Alexandra Von Guionneau, William Sloper, Charlotte Burford

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The benefits of exercise for the prevention and management of chronic disease are well established and the importance of primary care practitioners in promoting exercise is becoming increasingly recognized. However, those with severe manifestations of the chronic disease are managed in a secondary care setting. Secondary care practitioners, therefore, have a role to play in promoting physical activity. Methods: In order to assess secondary care doctors’ knowledge of the Chief Medical Officer’s guidelines for physical activity, a 12-question survey was administered to staff working in a district general hospital in South England during team and unit meetings. Questions related to knowledge of the current guidelines for both 19 - 64 year olds and older adults (65 years and above), barriers to exercise discussion or prescription and doctors’ own exercise habits. Responses were collected anonymously and analyzed using SPSS Version 24.0. Results: 96 responses were collected. Doctors taking part in the survey ranged from foundation years (26%) to consultants (40%). 17.7% of participants knew the guidelines for moderate intensity activity for 19 - 64 year olds. Only one participant knew all of the guidance for both 19 - 64 year olds and older adults. While 71.6% of doctors felt they were adequately informed about how to exercise, only 45.6% met the minimum recommended guidance for moderate intensity activity. Conclusion: More work is needed to promote the physical activity guidelines and exercise prescription to doctors working within a secondary care setting. In addition, doctors require more support to personally meet the recommended minimum level of physical activity.

Keywords: exercise is medicine, exercise prescription, physical activity guidelines, exercise habits

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Authors: Pei-Chun Chen, Chi-Ting Tseng, Lih-Chi Chen, Kai-Hsiang Yang

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Introduction: The pharmacist is responsible for encouraging adverse drug reaction (ADR) reporting. In a local center in Northern Taiwan, promotion and rewarding of ADR reporting have continued for over six years but failed to bring significant changes. This study aims to find a solution to increase ADR reporting. Research question or hypothesis: We hypothesized that under-reporting is due to the inconvenience of the reporting system. Reports were made conventionally through printed sheets. We proposed that reports made per month will increase if they were computerized. Study design: An ADR reporting platform was established in April 2015, before which was defined as the first stage of this study (January-March, 2015) and after which the second stage. The third stage commenced in November, 2015, after adding a reporting module to physicians prescription system. ADRs could be reported simultaneously when documenting drug allergies. Methods: ADR report rates during the three stages of the study were compared. Effects of the information platform on reporting were also analyzed. Results: During the first stage, the number of ADR reports averaged 6 per month. In the second stage, the number of reports per month averaged 1.86. Introducing the information platform had little effect on the monthly number of ADR reports. The average number of reports each month during the third stage of the study was 11±3.06, with 70.43% made electronically. Reports per month increased significantly after installing the reporting module in November, 2015 (P<0.001, t-test). In the first two stages, 29.03% of ADR reports were made by physicians, as compared to 70.42% of cases in the third stage of the study. Increased physician reporting possibly account for these differences. Conclusion: Adding a reporting module to the prescription system significantly increased ADR reporting. Improved accessibility is likely the cause. The addition of similar modules to computer systems of other healthcare professions may be considered to encourage spontaneous ADR reporting.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, adverse drug reaction reporting systems, regional hospital, prescription system

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Authors: Kanyapat U. Tapao

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the operation strategy strategies and public relations trend for public relations strategies development in public television station in Thailand. This study is a qualitative approach by indent interview from the 6 key informants that are managers of Voice TV and Thairath TV Channel. The results showed that both TV stations have to do research before making a release on the operation strategy policy such as a slogan, segmentation, integrated marketing communication and PR activity and also in term of Public Relations trend are including online media, online content and online training before opening the station and start promoting. By the way, we found the PR strategy for both TV station should be including application on mobile, online content, CRM activity, online banner, special event, and brand ambassador in order to bring a very reliable way.

Keywords: online banner, operation strategy, public relations trend, public relations strategies development

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

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Authors: Siti Dewi Aisyah

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Islamic Muslim fashion has become a trend in Indonesia. It is said that social media has a huge impact on its development. Indonesia is ranked among the most users of social media. That is why people who wear hijab also use social media for different purposes, one of this is to introduce hijab fashion. Consequently, they are becoming famous in social media. Social media has become a tool for communicating their beliefs as a Muslim as well as personal branding as a good hijabi yet with a fashionable style. This research will examine the social media such as Blog and Instagram, how it triggers the consumer culture to hijabi, what is the actual meaning behind of their feed posts in their social media, how they produce good photograph in their social media and for what reason they use social media. This research had been conducted through in-depth interviews with several bloggers who created Hijabers Community who have made a new trend in Muslim fashion and also Instagrammers who made their feeds as a style inspiration. The methodology used for this research is by analyzing Blog and Instagram through visual analysis that also examines the semiotic meaning behind the photographs that are posted by the people on the social media especially about the Islamic Modest Fashion trend. The theoretical framework for this research is about studying social media that is examined through visual analysis. The Muslim fashion trend was lead by several bloggers and continued to Instagram which then created a consumption pattern. From colourful colors, pastel colors, monochrome colors to neutral coffee tone colors, it was influenced by the Muslim fashion designers that also become digital influencers in social media. It was concluded that social media had been a powerful promotional and effective tool to change the trend in Indonesian Muslim Fashion trend.

Keywords: blog, instagram, consumer culture, muslim fashion, social media, visual analysis

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Authors: James Katungyi

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The Steady State thermal comfort model which dominates thermal comfort practice and which posits the ideal thermal conditions in a narrow range of thermal conditions does not deliver the expected comfort levels among occupants. Furthermore, the buildings where this model is applied consume a lot of energy in conditioning. This paper reviews significant literature about thermal comfort in dynamic indoor conditions including the adaptive thermal comfort model and alliesthesia. A major finding of the paper is that the adaptive thermal comfort model is part of a trend from static to dynamic indoor environments in aspects such as lighting, views, sounds and ventilation. Alliesthesia or thermal delight is consistent with this trend towards dynamic thermal conditions. It is within this trend that the two fold goal of increased thermal comfort and reduced energy consumption lies. At the heart of this trend is a rediscovery of the link between the natural environment and human well-being, a link that was partially severed by over-reliance on mechanically dominated artificial indoor environments. The paper concludes by advocating thermal conditioning solutions that integrate mechanical with natural thermal conditioning in a balanced manner in order to meet occupant thermal needs without endangering the environment.

Keywords: adaptive thermal comfort, alliesthesia, energy, natural environment

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: climate shift, rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, sen slope estimator, eastern Ganga canal command

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Authors: Hua Cao, Laurent Peyrodie, Olivier Agnani, Cecile Donze

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Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disease, which affects the central nervous system, and causes balance problem. In clinical, this disorder is usually evaluated using static posturography. Some linear or nonlinear measures, extracted from the posturographic data (i.e. center of pressure, COP) recorded during a balance test, has been used to analyze postural control of MS patients. In this study, the trend (TREND) and the sample entropy (SampEn), two nonlinear parameters were chosen to investigate their relationships with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score. Forty volunteers with different EDSS scores participated in our experiments with eyes open (EO) and closed (EC). TREND and two types of SampEn (SampEn1 and SampEn2) were calculated for each combined COP’s position signal. The results have shown that TREND had a weak negative correlation to EDSS while SampEn2 had a strong positive correlation to EDSS. Compared to TREND and SampEn1, SampEn2 showed a better significant correlation to EDSS and an ability to discriminate the MS patients in the EC case. In addition, the outcome of the study suggests that the multi-dimensional nonlinear analysis could provide some information about the impact of disability progression in MS on dynamics of the COP data.

Keywords: balance, multiple sclerosis, nonlinear analysis, postural sway

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Authors: Daniel E. Martin, Chenghai Yang

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Variable-rate aerial application systems are becoming more readily available; however, aerial applicators typically only use the systems for constant-rate application of materials, allowing the systems to compensate for upwind and downwind ground speed variations. Much of the resistance to variable-rate aerial application system adoption in the U.S. pertains to applicator’s trust in the systems to turn on and off automatically as desired. The objectives of this study were to evaluate a commercially available variable-rate aerial application system under field conditions to demonstrate both the response and accuracy of the system to desired application rate inputs. This study involved planting oats in a 35-acre fallow field during the winter months to establish a uniform green backdrop in early spring. A binary (on/off) prescription application map was generated and a variable-rate aerial application of glyphosate was made to the field. Airborne multispectral imagery taken before and two weeks after the application documented actual field deposition and efficacy of the glyphosate. When compared to the prescription application map, these data provided application system response and accuracy information. The results of this study will be useful for quantifying and documenting the response and accuracy of a commercially available variable-rate aerial application system so that aerial applicators can be more confident in their capabilities and the use of these systems can increase, taking advantage of all that aerial variable-rate technologies have to offer.

Keywords: variable-rate, aerial application, remote sensing, precision application

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Authors: Hend Albassam, Nouf Alrumaih

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Nowadays we are in the age of technologies and communication and there is no doubt that technologies such as the Internet can offer many advantages for many business fields, and the health field is no execution. In fact, using the Internet provide us with a new path to improve the quality of health care throughout the world. The e-healthcare offers many advantages such as: efficiency by reducing the cost and avoiding duplicate diagnostics, empowerment of patients by enabling them to access their medical records, enhancing the quality of healthcare and enabling information exchange and communication between healthcare organizations. There are many problems that result from using papers as a way of communication, for example, paper-based prescriptions. Usually, the doctor writes a prescription and gives it to the patient who in turn carries it to the pharmacy. After that, the pharmacist takes the prescription to fill it and give it to the patient. Sometimes the pharmacist might find difficulty in reading the doctor’s handwriting; the patient could change and counterfeit the prescription. These existing problems and many others heighten the need to improve the quality of the healthcare. This project is set out to develop a distributed e-healthcare system that offers some features of e-health and addresses some of the above-mentioned problems. The developed system provides an electronic health record (EHR) and enables communication between separate health care organizations such as the clinic, pharmacy and laboratory. To develop this system, the Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is adopted as a design approach, which helps to design several independent modules that communicate by using web services. The layering design pattern is used in designing each module as it provides reusability that allows the business logic layer to be reused by different higher layers such as the web service or the website in our system. The experimental analysis has shown that the project has successfully achieved its aims toward solving the problems related to the paper-based healthcare systems and it enables different health organization to communicate effectively. It implements four independent modules including healthcare provider, pharmacy, laboratory and medication information provider. Each module provides different functionalities and is used by a different type of user. These modules interoperate with each other using a set of web services.

Keywords: e-health, services oriented architecture (SOA), web services, interoperability

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Authors: Abhishek Pandey

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Capping and lamination are the most common tablet defects with poorly compressible drugs the common example of that Ibuprofen and Acetaminophen. Generally both these drugs are compressed by wet granulation method which is very time consuming process Ibuprofen and Acetaminophen is widely used as prescription & non-prescription medicine. Ibuprofen mainly used in the treatment of mild to moderate pain related to headache, migraine, postoperative condition and in the management of spondylitis, osteoarthritis Acetaminophen used as an analgesic and antipyretic drug. Ibuprofen having high tendency of sticking to punches of tablet punching machine while Acetaminophen is not ordinarily compressible to tablet formulation because Acetaminophen crystals are very hard and brittle in nature and fracture very easily when compressed producing capping and laminating tablet defects therefore wet granulation method is used to make them compressible. The aim of study was to prepare Ibuprofen and Acetaminophen tablets by direct compression technique and their evaluation. In this Investigation tablets were prepared by using directly compressible grade excipients. Dibasic calcium phosphate, lactose anhydrous (DCL21), microcrystalline cellulose (Avicel PH 101). In order to obtain best or optimize formulation nine different formulations were generated among them batch F5, F6, F7 shows good results and within the acceptable limit. Formulation (F7) selected as optimize product on the basis of evaluation parameters.

Keywords: capping, lamination, tablet defects, direct compression

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan

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This study analyses the trend and nature of sustainability key performance indicators (KPIs) reporting in firms globally. It presents both trend and panel data of sustainability reports of 798 firms in the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) database from 2010 to 2014. The results show some fluctuations in the frequency of sustainability KPI reporting globally across the time while the major focus of reports in firms stayed almost the same. It made us further analyse this trend and found that there are some indicators, such as 'environmental protect expenses' and 'number of grievances', that was barely reported over this period along with some highly popular ones such as 'direct economic value' and 'employment rate'. We could not find any statistical correlation between the KPI reporting percentage and the firms’ industries generally and neither if they belong to environmentally sensitive industries.

Keywords: global reporting initiatives, sustainability reporting, sustainability KPI, trends of sustainability reporting

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Authors: Prashant Neupane, Sumitra Kafle, Asmi Pandey, Laura Mitchell

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Pain following caesarean section can influence recovery, patient satisfaction, breast feeding success and mother-child bonding. Since the introduction of enhanced recovery protocols, mothers are often discharged 24 hours later. We identified concerns within our hospital with mothers tolerating poorly controlled pain in order to achieve earlier discharge and subsequently suffering significant pain at home with inadequate analgesia. Methods: We conducted a prospective audit of analgesic prescribing and post-operative pain scores after caesarean section. Mothers were seen on post-operative day one, their pain score recorded on a verbal analogue score from 0-10, and their prescription chart reviewed. A follow-up phone call was then made on post-operative day 3-7 to enquire about pain scores and analgesia use at home. Following this, a standardized proforma for prescribing after the caesarean section was introduced, including the addition of dihydrocodeine that patients can take home following discharge. There were educational update sessions for anesthetists and midwifes, and then a re-audit was conducted months later. Results: Data was collected from 50 women before and after the introduction of the change. Initial audit showed that there was considerable variation in prescribing, with four women prescribed no regular analgesia at all and inconsistency in the dose of oral morphine prescribed. Women were not given any form of analgesia to take home after discharge and were advised to take regular paracetamol and ibuprofen. However, 31/50 (62%) reported that they needed additional analgesia and eight women (16%) even sought prescription for additional analgesia from elsewhere. After the introduction of the change, prescribing was more consistent with all patients prescribed regular analgesia. 46/50 patients were given dihydrocodeine on discharge. Mean pain scores on post-operative day one improved from 5.16 to 3.9, and at home improved from 6.18 to 2.58. Use of dihydrocodeine at home significantly improved patients reporting of severe pain at home from 24% to zero. Discussion: Lack of strong analgesia out of the hospital and the increased demands on activity levels means that women are frequently in more pain at home after discharge. Introduction of a standardized prescription proforma, including the use of to-take-out dihydrocodeine, was successful in improving patient pain scores and the requirement for additional analgesia, both in hospital and at home.

Keywords: analgesia, caesarean section, post-operative pain, standardised

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Authors: Shanna Su, Kathleen Vincent

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Introduction: A non-hormonal prescription vaginal pH modulator (VPM) gel (Phexxi®), with active ingredients lactic acid, citric acid, and potassium bitartrate, has recently been approved for the prevention of pregnancy in the United States. The objective of this review is to compile the evidence available from published preclinical and clinical trials to support its use. Areas covered: PubMed was searched for published literature on VPM gel. Two Phase III trials were found on the clinicaltrials.gov database. The results demonstrated that VPM gel is safe, with minimal side effects, and effective (cumulative 6-7 cycle pregnancy rate of 4.1-13.65%, (Pearl Index 27.5) as a contraceptive. Microbicidal effects suggest the potential for the prevention of sexually transmitted infections (STIs); currently, a Phase III clinical trial is being conducted to evaluate the prevention of chlamydia and gonorrhea. Expert opinion: Non-hormonal reversible contraceptive options have been limited to the highly effective copper-releasing intrauterine device that requires insertion by a trained clinician and less effective coitally-associated barrier and spermicide options which are typically available over-the-counter. Spermicides, which improve the efficacy of barrier devices, may increase the risk of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/STIs. VPM gel provides a new safe, effective non-hormonal contraceptive option with the potential for prevention of STIs.

Keywords: citric acid, lactic acid, non-hormonal contraception, potassium bitartrate, topical vaginal contraceptive, vaginal pH modulator gel

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Authors: Alasdair Warwick, Luna Dhir

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Aim: To ascertain the efficacy of overcorrecting minus lens therapy in intermittent distance exotropia. Methods: Retrospective audit of all intermittent distance exotropia patients seen in the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital pediatric eye clinic between 1st January 2014 and 1st March 2016. Change in LogMAR visual acuity, stereopsis, near and distance angles of deviation, as well as the proportions of patients converting to exophoria or undergoing strabismus surgery, were recorded. Results: 22 patients were identified, 45% male, mean age 5 years (range 0.6 to 18.5 years). The median overminus prescription was -1.0 dioptres (range -0.5 to -1.75 dioptres) and mean follow-up was 15 months (range 3 to 54 months). Visual acuity, near and distance angles of deviation improved but were not statistically significant: -0.15 LogMAR, -0.2 prism dioptres and -1.2 prism dioptres respectively (p>0.05). However, a significant change in stereopsis was observed: -74'' (p<0.01). 27% underwent strabismus surgery and 36% converted to exophoria whilst wearing their overminus prescription. Conclusions: Overcorrecting minus lens therapy is an effective therapy for intermittent distance exotropia. There was no deterioration in visual acuity and a significant improvement in stereopsis was seen in our cohort, with many patients converting to an exophoria. The proportion of patients requiring strabismus surgery was comparable to other studies. Further, follow-up is needed to ascertain long-term outcomes.

Keywords: exotropia, overcorrecting minus lens, refraction, strabismus

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr

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Knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall trends has been of great concern for efficient water resource planning, management. In this study annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends over the Sinai Peninsula were analyzed by using absolute homogeneity tests, nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The homogeneity of rainfall time-series was examined using four absolute homogeneity tests namely, the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test. Further, the sequential change in the trend of annual and seasonal rainfalls is conducted using sequential MK (SQMK) method. Then the trend analysis based on discrete wavelet transform technique (DWT) in conjunction with SQMK method is performed. The spatial patterns of the detected rainfall trends were investigated using a geostatistical and deterministic spatial interpolation technique. The results achieved from the Mann–Kendall test to the data series (using the 5% significance level) highlighted that rainfall was generally decreasing in January, February, March, November, December, wet season, and annual rainfall. A significant decreasing trend in the winter and annual rainfall with significant levels were inferred based on the Mann-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. Further, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) analysis reveal that in general, intra- and inter-annual events (up to 4 years) are more influential in affecting the observed trends. The nature of the trend captured by both methods is similar for all of the cases. On the basis of spatial trend analysis, significant rainfall decreases were also noted in the investigated stations. Overall, significant downward trends in winter and annual rainfall over the Sinai Peninsula was observed during the study period.

Keywords: trend analysis, rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, discrete wavelet transform, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Sikander Ali

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English is being used as linguafranca in most of the formal and informal situations of Pakistan. This extensive use has been rapidly replacing the identity of national language of Pakistani.e. Urdu. The nature of syntactic representation has always been the matter of confusion among linguists. Being unaware of the correct plural forms the non-natives commit mistakes while making plurals. But the situation is reverse when non-natives of English irrespective of knowing the right plurals make wrong plurals usually talking in their native language. The observation method was opted to check this hypothesis. Along with it, a checklist has been made in which these certain occurrences have been mentioned, where this flouting of the norms is a normal routine. The result confirms that Pakistani commit this mistake, i.e. ‘tablian’ the plural of tables, ‘filain’ the plural of files, though this is done by them on unconscious level. This emerging trend of unconscious mistake is leading Pakistani bilinguals towards a diglossic situation where they are coining portmanteau.

Keywords: bilinguals, emerging trend, portmanteau, trends

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: Swatantra

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Hinglish, a blended version of Hindi and English, emerged due to the lack of the competence and command of the speakers over the foreign language, i., e., English. But, amazingly, the trend has gained wide acceptance. In India, this acceptance has gone up to the extent that popular news anchors at the prime time shows are frequently using it. At the moment, instead of being considered a flaw of their presentation Hinglish is emerging as a trendy genre. Its pervasive usage and extensive acceptance is motivating youngsters to opt for the similar kind of patterns. The current study is an endeavour to assess the impact of this trend on the new language learners. With the help of semi-structured interviews, the researcher has tried to gauge the level of comfort and desire to be at par with the other fluent English speakers. The results clearly depict a substantiated boost in the confidence level of learners because they are able to use the vocabulary and sentence patterns of their own choice and convenience. The prevalence and acceptance of the trend in the main stream media have really served as a catalyst and the desire to be at par with the other fluent speakers is also fading away. The users of Hinglish find this trend to be closer to their heart as in the earlier times in the absence of exact translation they had to compromise with the meaning or spirit of the word/phrase / sentence. But now enhanced flexibility is leaving them more comfortable and confident.

Keywords: Hinglish, language learners, linguistic trends, media

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Anna M. N. Shifotoka, Richard Walker, Katie Haighton, Richard McNally

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An analysis of trends in Case Notification Rates (CNR) can be used to monitor the impact of Tuberculosis (TB) control interventions over time in order to inform the implementation of current and future TB interventions. A retrospective analysis of trends in TB CNR for two urban regions in Namibia, namely Khomas and Erongo regions, was conducted. TB case notification data were obtained from annual TB reports of the national TB programme, Ministry of Health and Social Services, covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends in CNR for different types of TB groups. A trend was considered to be statistically significant when a p-value was less than 0.05. During the period under review, the crude CNR for all forms of TB declined from 808 to 400 per 100 000 population in Khomas, and from 1051 to 611 per 100 000 population in Erongo. In both regions, significant change points in trends were observed for all types of TB groups examined. In Khomas region, the trend for new smear positive pulmonary TB increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3% to 8.2%) during the period 1997 to 2004, and thereafter declined significantly by -6.2% (95%CI: -7.7% to -4.3%) per year until 2015. Similarly, the trend for smear negative pulmonary TB increased significantly by 23.7% (95%CI: 9.7 to 39.5) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly by an annual change of -26.4% (95%CI: -33.1% to -19.8%). The trend for all forms of TB CNR in Khomas region increased significantly by 8.1% (95%CI: 3.7 to 12.7) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly a rate of -8.7% (95%CI: -10.6 to -6.8). In Erongo region, the trend for smear positive pulmonary TB increased at a rate of 1.2% (95%CI: -1.2% to 3.6%) annually during the earlier years (1997 to 2008), and thereafter declined significantly by -9.3% (95%CI: -13.3% to -5.0%) per year from 2008 to 2015. Also in Erongo, the trend for all forms of TB CNR increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.0% (95%CI: 1.4% to 6.6%) during the years between 1997 to 2006 and thereafter declined significantly by -10.4% (95%CI: -12.7% to -8.0%) per year during 2006 to 2015. The trend for extra-pulmonary TB CNR declined but did not reach statistical significance in both regions. In conclusion, CNRs declined for all types of TB examined in both regions. Further research is needed to study trends for other TB dimensions such as treatment outcomes and notification of drug resistant TB cases.

Keywords: epidemiology, Namibia, temporal trends, tuberculosis

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Authors: M. T. Bouziane, A. Benkhaled, B. Achour

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In this study, data from 30 catchments in the Chott Melghir basin in the semiarid region of southern East Algeria were analyzed to investigate changes in annual discharge, annual precipitation over the 1965-2005 period. These data were analyzed with the aid of Kendall test trend and regression analysis. The results indicate that the major variations in all catchments discharge in Chott Melghir correspond well to the precipitation. Changes in total annual discharge of Chott Melghir were lower than changes in annual precipitation. Annual precipitation decreased by 66 percent and annual discharge decreased by 4 percent. No significant trend is detected for annual discharge and precipitation at major catchments up to 95% confidence level. The decreasing trend in Chott Melghir discharge is mainly attributed to the decrease of precipitation.

Keywords: trends, climate change, precipitation, discharge, Kendall test, regression analysis, Chott Melghir catchments

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Authors: Ubaka Chukwuemeka Michael, Ukwe Chinwe Victoria

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Background: The use of antipsychotic monotherapy remains the standard for schizophrenic disorders so also a prescription switch from older typical to newer atypical classes of antipsychotics on the basis of better efficacy and tolerability. However, surveys on the quality of antipsychotic drug use and substitution in developing countries are very scarce. This study was intended to evaluate quality and factors that drive the prescription and substitution of antipsychotic drugs among schizophrenic patients visiting a regional psychiatric hospital. Methods: Case files of patients visiting a federal government funded Neuropsychiatric Hospital between July 2012 and July 2014 were systematically retrieved. Patient demographic characteristics, clinical details and drug management data were collected and subjected to descriptive and inferential data analysis to determine quality and predictors of utilization. Results: Of the 600 case files used, there were more male patients (55.3%) with an overall mean age of 33.7±14.4 years. Typical antipsychotic agents accounted for over 85% of prescriptions, with majority of the patients receiving more than 2 drugs in at least a visit (80.9%). Fluphenazine (25.2%) and Haloperidol (18.8%) were mostly given as antipsychotics for treatment initiation while Olazenpine (23.0%) and Benzhexol (18.3%) were the most currently prescribed antipsychotics. Nearly half (42%, 252/600) of these patients were switched from one class to another, with 34.5% (207/600) of them switched from typical to atypical drug classes. No demographic or clinical factors influenced drug substitutions but a younger age and being married influenced being prescribed a polypharmacy regimen (more than 2 drugs) and an injectable antipsychotic agent. Conclusion: The prevalence of antipsychotic polypharmacy and use of typical agents among these patients was high. However, only age and marital status affected the quality of antipsychotic prescriptions among these patients.

Keywords: antipsychotics, drug substitution, pharmacoepidemiology, polypharmacy

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Authors: Mani Mofidi, Neda Valizadeh, Ali Hashemaghaee, Mona Hashemaghaee, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani

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Background: Acute pain and its management remained the most complaint of emergency service admission. Diagnostic and therapeutic procedures add to patients’ pain. Diminishing the pain increases the quality of patient’s feeling and improves the patient-physician relationship. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes and side effects of opioid administration in emergency patients. Material and Methods: patients admitted to ward II emergency service of Imam Khomeini hospital, who received one of the opioids: morphine, pethidine, methadone or fentanyl as an analgesic were evaluated. Their vital signs and general condition were examined before and after drug injection. Also, patient’s pain experience were recorded as numerical rating score (NRS) before and after analgesic administration. Results: 268 patients were studied. 34 patients were addicted to opioid drugs. Morphine had the highest rate of prescription (86.2%), followed by pethidine (8.5%), methadone (3.3%) and fentanyl (1.68). While initial NRS did not show significant difference between addicted patients and non-addicted ones, NRS decline and its score after drug injection were significantly lower in addicted patients. All patients had slight but statistically significant lower respiratory rate, heart rate, blood pressure and O2 saturation. There was no significant difference between different kind of opioid prescription and its outcomes or side effects. Conclusion: Pain management should be always in physicians’ mind during emergency admissions. It should not be assumed that an addicted patient complaining of pain is malingering to receive drug. Titration of drug and close monitoring must be in the curriculum to prevent any hazardous side effects.

Keywords: numerical rating score, opioid, pain, emergency department

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Authors: Jonghoon Chun, Insung Kim, Jonghyun Lim, Gun Ro

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We believe that it is possible to provide a solution to reduce patient safety accidents by displaying correct medical records and prescription information through interactive patient identification. Our system is based on the use of smart bands worn by patients and these bands communicate with the hybrid gateways which understand both BLE and Wifi communication protocols. Through the convergence of low-power Bluetooth (BLE) and hybrid gateway technology, which is one of short-range wireless communication technologies, we implement ‘Intelligent Patient Identification and Location Tracking System’ to prevent medical malfunction frequently occurring in medical institutions. Based on big data and IOT technology using MongoDB, smart band (BLE, NFC function) and hybrid gateway, we develop a system to enable two-way communication between medical staff and hospitalized patients as well as to store locational information of the patients in minutes. Based on the precise information provided using big data systems, such as location tracking and movement of in-hospital patients wearing smart bands, our findings include the fact that a patient-specific location tracking algorithm can more efficiently operate HIS (Hospital Information System) and other related systems. Through the system, we can always correctly identify patients using identification tags. In addition, the system automatically determines whether the patient is a scheduled for medical service by the system in use at the medical institution, and displays the appropriateness of the medical treatment and the medical information (medical record and prescription information) on the screen and voice. This work was supported in part by the Korea Technology and Information Promotion Agency for SMEs (TIPA) grant funded by the Korean Small and Medium Business Administration (No. S2410390).

Keywords: BLE, hybrid gateway, patient identification, IoT, safety management, smart band

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Ethan Petersen

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze the volatility of Apple’s stock beginning January 3, 2005 up to October 9, 2014, then focus on a range from 30 days prior to each product announcement until 30 days after. Product announcements are filtered; announcements whose 60 day range is devoid of other events are separated. This filtration is chosen to isolate, and study, a potential cross-effect. Concerning Apple keynotes, there are two significant dates: the day the invitations to the event are received and the day of the event itself. As such, the statistical analysis is conducted for both invite-centered and event-centered time frames. A comparison to the VIX is made to determine if the trend is simply following the market or deviating. Regardless of the filtration, we find that there is a clear deviation from the market. Comparing these data sets, there are significantly different trends: isolated events have a constantly decreasing, erratic trend in volatility but an increasing, linear trend is observed for clustered events. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we would expect a change when new information is publicly known and the results of this study support this claim.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, event study, volatility, VIX

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Authors: Shashank Bhatnagar, W. Wilfred Godfrey

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We develop in this paper, an approach to find the trendy topic, which not only considers the user-topic interaction but also considers the community, in which user belongs. This method modifies the previous approach of user-topic interaction to user-community-topic interaction with better speed-up in the range of [1.1-3]. We assume that trend detection in a social network is dependent on two things. The one is, broadcast of messages in social network governed by self-exciting point process, namely called Hawkes process and the second is, Community Rank. The influencer node links to others in the community and decides the community rank based on its PageRank and the number of users links to that community. The community rank decides the influence of one community over the other. Hence, the Hawkes process with the kernel of user-community-topic decides the trendy topic disseminated into the social network.

Keywords: community detection, community rank, Hawkes process, influencer node, pagerank, trend detection

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Authors: Jay Mar D. Quevedo, Fernando P. Siringan, Cesar L. Villanoy

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The influence of the Younger Dryas (YD) event on primary production off the northeast shelf of Luzon, Philippines is examined using sediment cores from two deep sea sites north of the Bicol shelf and with varying relative influence from terrestrial sediment input and the Kuroshio Current. Core A is immediately west of the Kuroshio feeder current and is off the slope while Core B is from a bathymetric high located almost west of Core A. XRF-, CHN- and LOI- derived geochemical proxies are utilized for reconstruction. A decrease in sediment input from ~12.9 to ~11.6 kyr BP corresponding to the YD event is indicated by the proxies, Ti, Al, and Al/Ti, in both cores. This is consistent with the drier climate during this period. Primary productivity indicators in the cores show opposing trends during the YD; Core A shows an increasing trend while Core B shows a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend in Core B can be due to a decrease in terrestrial nutrient input due to a decrease in precipitation. On the other hand, the increasing trend in Core A can be due to a swifter Kuroshio Current caused by a swifter and more southerly NEC bifurcation which in turn is due to a southerly shift of the ITCZ during YD. A stronger Kuroshio feeder would have enhanced upwelling induced by steeper sea surface across the current and by more intense cyclonic gyres due to flow separation where the shelf width suddenly decreases north of the Bicol Shelf.

Keywords: paleoproductivity, younger dryas, Philippines, northeastern Luzon

Procedia PDF Downloads 300