Search results for: out-of-sample forecasts

Authors: Umit Cali

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The integration of intermittent energy sources like wind farms into the electricity grid has become an important challenge for the utilization and control of electric power systems, because of the fluctuating behaviour of wind power generation. Wind power predictions improve the economic and technical integration of large amounts of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Trading, balancing, grid operation, controllability and safety issues increase the importance of predicting power output from wind power operators. Therefore, wind power forecasting systems have to be integrated into the monitoring and control systems of the transmission system operator (TSO) and wind farm operators/traders. The wind forecasts are relatively precise for the time period of only a few hours, and, therefore, relevant with regard to Spot and Intraday markets. In this work predictive data mining techniques are applied to identify a statistical and neural network model or set of models that can be used to predict wind power output of large onshore and offshore wind farms. These advanced data analytic methods helps us to amalgamate the information in very large meteorological, oceanographic and SCADA data sets into useful information and manageable systems. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. This study is also dedicated to an in-depth consideration of issues such as the comparison of day ahead and the short-term wind power forecasting results, determination of the accuracy of the wind power prediction and the evaluation of the energy economic and technical benefits of wind power forecasting.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, wind power, forecasting, data mining, big data, artificial intelligence, energy economics, power trading, power grids

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Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

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The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

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In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: innovative methods in transportation data collection, integrated public transportation system, traffic forecasts, transportation modeling, travel behavior

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Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

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Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

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Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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The increasing use of deep learning applications in production is becoming a competitive advantage. Predictive quality enables the assurance of product quality by using data-driven forecasts via machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. The use of real Bosch production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to classifying the leakage of directional valves.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, classification, hydraulics, predictive quality, deep learning

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Authors: Balazs Kulcsar

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Professional energy organizations perform analyses mainly on the global and national levels about the expected development of the share of renewables in electric power generation, heating, and cooling, as well as the transport sectors. There are just a few publications, research institutions, non-profit organizations, and national initiatives with a focus on studies in the individual towns, settlements. Issues concerning the self-supply of energy on the settlement level have not become too wide-spread. The goal of our energy geographic studies is to determine the share of local renewable energy sources in the settlement-based electricity supply across Hungary. The Hungarian energy supply system defines four categories based on the installed capacities of electric power generating units. From these categories, the theoretical annual electricity production of small-sized household power plants (SSHPP) featuring installed capacities under 50 kW and small power plants with under 0.5 MW capacities have been taken into consideration. In the above-mentioned power plant categories, the Hungarian Electricity Act has allowed the establishment of power plants primarily for the utilization of renewable energy sources since 2008. Though with certain restrictions, these small power plants utilizing renewable energies have the closest links to individual settlements and can be regarded as the achievements of the host settlements in the shift of energy use. Based on the 2017 data, we have ranked settlements to reflect the level of self-sufficiency in electricity production from renewable energy sources. The results show that the supply of all the energy demanded by settlements from local renewables is within reach now in small settlements, e.g., in the form of the small power plant categories discussed in the study, and is not at all impossible even in small towns and cities. In Hungary, 30 settlements produce more renewable electricity than their own annual electricity consumption. If these overproductive settlements export their excess electricity towards neighboring settlements, then full electricity supply can be realized on further 29 settlements from renewable sources by local small power plants. These results provide an opportunity for governmental planning of the realization of energy shift (legislative background, support system, environmental education), as well as framing developmental forecasts and scenarios until 2030.

Keywords: energy geography, Hungary, local small power plants, renewable energy sources, self-sufficiency settlements

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Due to increasing cost pressure in global markets, artificial intelligence is becoming a technology that is decisive for competition. Predictive quality enables machinery and plant manufacturers to ensure product quality by using data-driven forecasts via machine learning models as a decision-making basis for test results. The use of cross-process Bosch production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to classifying the quality characteristics of workpieces.

Keywords: predictive quality, hydraulics, machine learning, classification, supervised learning

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Authors: João Boaventura Branco De Matos

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Currently, in Brazil, there is a considerable collection of publications on the supplementary health sector, but the vast majority is limited to retrospective examination of the sector. The present contribution starts from the diagnosis of an overwhelming change in the role of the State and its institutions, as well as an accelerated and no less forceful change in the way of producing goods and services, resulting in a clash between these different waves (state and market). This shock produces unique energy, capable of imposing major changes in the most varied sectors. Based on this diagnosis, there was an opportunity to offer the perspective and propositional study of regulatory measures relevant to the best conduct and performance of this sector in the future.

Keywords: private health regulation, state and market, forecasts in Brazilian regulation, political economy

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Housein Deli, Loui Al-Shrouf, Hammoud Al Joumaa, Mohieddine Jelali

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When forming metallic materials, fluctuations in material properties, process conditions, and wear lead to deviations in the component geometry. Several hundred features sometimes need to be measured, especially in the case of functional and safety-relevant components. These can only be measured offline due to the large number of features and the accuracy requirements. The risk of producing components outside the tolerances is minimized but not eliminated by the statistical evaluation of process capability and control measurements. The inspection intervals are based on the acceptable risk and are at the expense of productivity but remain reactive and, in some cases, considerably delayed. Due to the considerable progress made in the field of condition monitoring and measurement technology, permanently installed sensor systems in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence, in particular, offer the potential to independently derive forecasts for component geometry and thus eliminate the risk of defective products - actively and preventively. The reliability of forecasts depends on the quality, completeness, and timeliness of the data. Measuring all geometric characteristics is neither sensible nor technically possible. This paper, therefore, uses the example of car seat rail production to discuss the necessary first step of feature selection and reduction by correlation analysis, as otherwise, it would not be possible to forecast components in real-time and inline. Four different car seat rails with an average of 130 features were selected and measured using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The run of such measuring programs alone takes up to 20 minutes. In practice, this results in the risk of faulty production of at least 2000 components that have to be sorted or scrapped if the measurement results are negative. Over a period of 2 months, all measurement data (> 200 measurements/ variant) was collected and evaluated using correlation analysis. As part of this study, the number of characteristics to be measured for all 6 car seat rail variants was reduced by over 80%. Specifically, direct correlations for almost 100 characteristics were proven for an average of 125 characteristics for 4 different products. A further 10 features correlate via indirect relationships so that the number of features required for a prediction could be reduced to less than 20. A correlation factor >0.8 was assumed for all correlations.

Keywords: long-term SHM, condition monitoring, machine learning, correlation analysis, component prediction, wear prediction, regressions analysis

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Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Tahani Salman Alangari

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Student success can be impacted by internal factors such as their emotional well-being and external factors such as organizational support and instructional support in the classroom. This study is to identify at least one factor that forecasts student engagement. It is a cross-sectional, conducted on 6206 teachers and encompassed three years of data collection and observations of math instruction in approximately 50 schools and 300 classrooms. A multiple linear regression revealed that a model predicting student engagement from emotional support, classroom organization, and instructional support was significant. Four linear regression models were tested using hierarchical regression to examine the effects of independent variables: emotional support was the highest predictor of student engagement while instructional support was the lowest.

Keywords: student engagement, emotional support, organizational support, instructional support, well-being

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Authors: Bastian Haarmann, Likas Sikorski

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In this paper, we introduce an NLG application for the automatic creation of ready-to-publish texts from big data. The fully automatic generated stories have a high resemblance to the style in which the human writer would draw up a news story. Topics may include soccer games, stock exchange market reports, weather forecasts and many more. The generation of the texts runs according to the human language production. Each generated text is unique. Ready-to-publish stories written by a computer application can help humans to quickly grasp the outcomes of big data analyses, save time-consuming pre-formulations for journalists and cater to rather small audiences by offering stories that would otherwise not exist.

Keywords: big data, natural language generation, publishing, robotic journalism

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Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

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Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

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TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modelling.

Keywords: calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, metropolitan planning organizations

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: Dana Al-Qattan, Faiza Goodarzi, Heba Al-Resheedan, Kawther Shehab, Shoug Al-Ansari

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This project involves working with different types of forecasting methods and facility planning tools to help the company we have chosen to improve and reduce its inventory, increase its sales, and decrease its wastes and losses. The methods that have been used by the company have shown no improvement in decreasing the annual losses. The research made in the company has shown that no interest has been made in exploring different techniques to help the company. In this report, we introduce several methods and techniques that will help the company make more accurate forecasts and use of the available space efficiently. We expect our approach to reduce costs without affecting the quality of the product, and hence making production more viable.

Keywords: production planning, inventory management, inventory control, simulation, facility planning and design, engineering economy and costs

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Israa Abu Rumman

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This paper modeled sales history archived from 2012 to 2015 bulked in monthly bins for five products for a medical supply company in Jordan. The sales forecasts and extracted consistent patterns in the sales demand history from the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system were used to predict future forecasting and generate sales demand forecasting using time series analysis statistical technique called Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This was used to model and estimate realistic sales demand patterns and predict future forecasting to decide the best models for five products. Analysis revealed that the current replenishment system indicated inventory overstocking.

Keywords: ARIMA models, sales demand forecasting, time series, R code

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

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Authors: Debneil Saha Roy

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Weather forecasting is a complex topic and is well suited for analysis by deep learning approaches. With the wide availability of weather observation data nowadays, these approaches can be utilized to identify immediate comparisons between historical weather forecasts and current observations. This work explores the application of deep learning techniques to weather forecasting in order to accurately predict the weather over a given forecast hori­zon. Three deep neural networks are used in this study, namely, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Tunn Memory Network (LSTM) and a combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM. The predictive performance of these models is compared using two evaluation metrics. The results show that forecasting accuracy increases with an increase in the complexity of deep neural networks.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, long short term memory, multi-layer perceptron

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Margarita Mayoral-Villa, J. Klapp, L. Di G. Sigalotti, J. E. V. Guzmán

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Automated learning techniques are widely applied in the energy sector to address challenging problems from a practical point of view. To this end, we discuss the implementation of a Message Passing algorithm (MPNN)within a Graph Neural Network(GNN)to leverage the neighborhood of a set of nodes during the aggregation process. This approach enables the characterization of multiphase diffusion processes in the reservoir, such that the flow paths underlying the interconnections between multiple wells may be inferred from previously available data on flow rates and bottomhole pressures. The results thus obtained compare favorably with the predictions produced by the Reduced Order Capacitance-Resistance Models (CRM) and suggest the potential of MPNNs to enhance the robustness of the forecasts while improving the computational efficiency.

Keywords: multiphase diffusion, message passing neural network, well interconnection, interwell connectivity, graph neural network, capacitance-resistance models

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Authors: Jagriti Mishra, Vasundhara Chaudhary

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Introduction: The case highlights various issues and challenges faced by Khanna Enterprises while conceptualizing and execution of launching Active Leisure wear in the domestic market, where different steps involved in the range planning and production have been elaborated. Although Khanna Enterprises was an established company which dealt in the production of knitted and woven garments, they took the risk of launching a new concept- Active Leisure wear for Millennials. Methodology: It is based on primary and secondary research where data collection has been done through survey, in-depth interviews and various reports, forecasts, and journals. Findings: The research through primary and secondary data and execution of active leisure wear substantiated the acceptance, not only by the millennials but also by the generation X. There was a demand of bigger sizes as well as more muted colours. Conclusion: The sales data paved the way for future product development in tune with the strengths of Khanna Enterprises.

Keywords: millennials, range planning, production, active leisure wear

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Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

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This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

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