Search results for: non-market outputs

Authors: D. Šedivý, S. Fialová

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to show differences between the numerical solution of the flow through the artificial heart valve using Newtonian or non-Newtonian fluid. The simulation was carried out by a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package based on finite-volume method. An aortic bileaflet heart valve (Sorin Bicarbon) was used as a pattern for model of real heart valve replacement. Computed tomography (CT) was used to gain the accurate parameters of the valve. Data from CT were transferred in the commercial 3D designer, where the model for CFD was made. Carreau rheology model was applied as non-Newtonian fluid. Physiological data of cardiac cycle were used as boundary conditions. Outputs were taken the leaflets excursion from opening to closure and the fluid dynamics through the valve. This study also includes experimental measurement of pressure fields in ambience of valve for verification numerical outputs. Results put in evidence a favorable comparison between the computational solutions of flow through the mechanical heart valve using Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid.

Keywords: computational modeling, dynamic mesh, mechanical heart valve, non-Newtonian fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

Abstract:

Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Asli Tiktas, Huseyin Gunerhan, Arif Hepbasli

Abstract:

Solar energy, with its abundant and clean features, is one of the prominent renewable energy sources in multigeneration energy systems where various outputs, especially power generation, are produced together. In the literature, concentrated solar energy systems, which are an expensive technology, are mostly used in solar power plants where medium-high capacity production outputs are achieved. In addition, although different methods have been developed and proposed for solar energy-supported integrated power generation systems by different investigators, absorption technology, which is one of the key points of the present study, has been used extensively in cooling systems in these studies. Unlike these common uses mentioned in the literature, this study designs a system in which a flat plate solar collector (FPSC), Rankine cycle, absorption heat transformer (AHT), and cooling systems (ACS) are integrated. The system proposed within the scope of this study aims to produce medium-high-capacity electricity, heating, and cooling outputs using a technique different from the literature, with lower production costs than existing systems. With the proposed integrated system design, the average production costs based on electricity, heating, and cooling load production for similar scale systems are 5-10% of the average production costs of 0.685 USD/kWh, 0.247 USD/kWh, and 0.342 USD/kWh. In the proposed integrated system design, this will be achieved by increasing the outlet temperature of the AHT and FPSC system first, expanding the high-temperature steam coming out of the absorber of the AHT system in the turbine up to the condenser temperature of the ACS system, and next directly integrating it into the evaporator of this system and then completing the AHT cycle. Through this proposed system, heating and cooling will be carried out by completing the AHT and ACS cycles, respectively, while power generation will be provided because of the expansion of the turbine. Using only a single generator in the production of these three outputs together, the costs of additional boilers and the need for a heat source are also saved. In order to demonstrate that the system proposed in this study offers a more optimum solution, the techno-economic parameters obtained based on energy, exergy, economic, and environmental analysis were compared with the parameters of similar scale systems in the literature. The design parameters of the proposed system were determined through a parametric optimization study to exceed the maximum efficiency and effectiveness and reduce the production cost rate values of the compared systems.

Keywords: solar energy, absorption technology, Rankine cycle, multigeneration energy system

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Xuemei Jiang, Kunfu Zhu, Shouyang Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, we selected China as a case and employ a time-series of unique input-output tables distinguishing firm ownership and processing exports, to evaluate the role of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in China’s rapid carbon dioxide emission growth. The results suggested that FIEs contributed to 11.55% of the economic outputs’ growth in China between 1992-2010, but accounted for only 9.65% of the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. In relative term, until 2010 FIEs still emitted much less than Chinese-owned enterprises (COEs) when producing the same amount of outputs, although COEs experienced much faster technology upgrades. In an ideal scenario where we assume the final demands remain unchanged and COEs completely mirror the advanced technologies of FIEs, more than 2000 Mt of carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced for China in 2010. From a policy perspective, the widespread FIEs are very effective and efficient channel to encourage technology transfer from developed to developing countries.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, foreign-invested enterprises, technology transfer, input–output analysis, China

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Reem I. Al-Ya' Goub, Nasim Shatarat

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of analytical and comparative study among software programs' outputs in analysis of some two way solid slabs; flat plate, flat slab with beams and flat slab with drop panels problems that already been analyzed using Classical Equivalent Frame Method (CEFM) by several reinforced concrete book authors. The primary objective of this research is to determine the moment results using various software programs. Then, a summary of the results and differences percentages were obtained to show how analysis procedure effects the outputs of calculations that vary from software program to another when comparing them with the results of CEFM. Moment values were obtained using either the Equivalent Frame Method (EFM) or Finite Element Method (FEM) that's used among many software programs. The results of the analyses demonstrate that software programs vary markedly in terms of the information they provide to the structural designer regarding values of the model insertion, stiffness, effective moment of inertia used and specially the moment values.

Keywords: two-way solid slabs, flat plate, flat slab with beams, flat slab with drop panels, analysis, modeling, EFM, CEFM, FEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: J. C. M. Santos, J. C. A. Sousa, A. J. Rubio, L. S. Soletti, F. Gasparotto, N. U. Yamaguchi

Abstract:

Magnetic graphene has received widespread attention for their capability of water and wastewater treatment, which has been attracted many researchers in this field. A bibliometric analysis based on the Web of Science database was employed to analyze the global scientific outputs of magnetic graphene for water treatment until the present time (2012 to 2017), to improve the understanding of the research trends. The publication year, place of publication, institutes, funding agencies, journals, most cited articles, distribution outputs in thematic categories and applications were analyzed. Three major aspects analyzed including type of pollutant, treatment process and composite composition have further contributed to revealing the research trends. The most relevant research aspects of the main technologies using magnetic graphene for water treatment were summarized in this paper. The results showed that research on magnetic graphene for water treatment goes through a period of decline that might be related to a saturated field and a lack of bibliometric studies. Thus, the result of the present work will lead researchers to establish future directions in further studies using magnetic graphene for water treatment.

Keywords: composite, graphene oxide, nanomaterials, scientometrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Jiri Barta

Abstract:

At the present time, awareness, education, computer simulation and information systems protection are very serious and relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the system which is developed for communication among members of crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems, especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries, systems of European Union and international organizations where the Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information systems and computer simulations on a single communication interface of information system for communication among members of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.

Keywords: computer simulation, communication, continuity, critical infrastructure, information systems, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: I. Yilmaz, O. Taga, F. Kosar, O. Keles

Abstract:

In this study, friction and damping coefficients of folded cover mechanism were obtained in accordance with experimental studies and data. Friction and damping coefficients are the most important inputs to accomplish a mechanism analysis. Friction and damping are two objects that change the time of deployment of mechanisms and their dynamic behaviors. Though recommended friction coefficient values exist in literature, damping is differentiating feature according to mechanic systems. So the damping coefficient should be obtained from mechanism test outputs. In this study, the folded cover mechanism use torsion springs for deploying covers that are formerly close folded position. Torsion springs provide folded covers with desirable deploying time according to variable environmental conditions. To verify all design revisions with system tests will be so costly so that some decisions are taken in accordance with numerical methods. In this study, there are two folded covers required to deploy simultaneously. Scotch-yoke and crank-rod mechanisms were combined to deploy folded covers simultaneously. The mechanism was unlocked with a pyrotechnic bolt onto scotch-yoke disc. When pyrotechnic bolt was exploded, torsion springs provided rotational movement for mechanism. Quick motion camera was recording dynamic behaviors of system during deployment case. Dynamic model of mechanism was modeled as rigid body with Adams MBD (multi body dynamics) then torque values provided by torsion springs were used as an input. A well-advised range of friction and damping coefficients were defined in Adams DOE (design of experiment) then a large number of analyses were performed until deployment time of folded covers run in with test data observed in record of quick motion camera, thus the deployment time of mechanism and dynamic behaviors were obtained. Same mechanism was tested with different torsion springs and torque values then outputs were compared with numerical models. According to comparison, it was understood that friction and damping coefficients obtained in this study can be used safely when studying on folded objects required to deploy simultaneously. In addition to model generated with Adams as rigid body the finite element model of folded mechanism was generated with Abaqus then the outputs of rigid body model and finite element model was compared. Finally, the reasonable solutions were suggested about different outputs of these solution methods.

Keywords: damping, friction, pyro-technic, scotch-yoke

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Kuang-Hsiung Tan, Chih-Chan Hu, Chien-Wu Lan, Shih-Sung Lin, Te-Jen Chang

Abstract:

An active islanding detection method using disturbance signal injection with intelligent controller is proposed in this study. First, a DC\AC power inverter is emulated in the distributed generator (DG) system to implement the tracking control of active power, reactive power outputs and the islanding detection. The proposed active islanding detection method is based on injecting a disturbance signal into the power inverter system through the d-axis current which leads to a frequency deviation at the terminal of the RLC load when the utility power is disconnected. Moreover, in order to improve the transient and steady-state responses of the active power and reactive power outputs of the power inverter, and to further improve the performance of the islanding detection method, two probabilistic fuzzy neural networks (PFNN) are adopted to replace the traditional proportional-integral (PI) controllers for the tracking control and the islanding detection. Furthermore, the network structure and the online learning algorithm of the PFNN are introduced in detail. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the tracking control and the proposed active islanding detection method are verified with experimental results.

Keywords: distributed generators, probabilistic fuzzy neural network, islanding detection, non-detection zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Abdulrahman M. Qahtani, Gary. B. Wills, Andy. M. Gravell

Abstract:

Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: customisation software products, global software engineering, local decision making, requirement engineering, simulation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Amin Zabihinejad, Philippe Viarouge

Abstract:

In this paper, a direct power control (DPC) strategies have been investigated in order to control a high power AC/DC converter with time variable load. This converter is composed of a three level three phase neutral point clamped (NPC) converter as rectifier and an H-bridge four quadrant current control converter. In the high power application, controller not only must adjust the desired outputs but also decrease the level of distortions which are injected to the network from the converter. Regarding this reason and nonlinearity of the power electronic converter, the conventional controllers cannot achieve appropriate responses. In this research, the precise mathematical analysis has been employed to design the appropriate controller in order to control the time variable load. A DPC controller has been proposed and simulated using Matlab/Simulink. In order to verify the simulation result, a real-time simulator- OPAL-RT- has been employed. In this paper, the dynamic response and stability of the high power NPC with variable load has been investigated and compared with conventional types using a real-time simulator. The results proved that the DPC controller is more stable and has more precise outputs in comparison with the conventional controller.

Keywords: direct power control, three level rectifier, real time simulator, high power application

Procedia PDF Downloads 517

Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

Abstract:

The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Cristian Crespo

Abstract:

Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been targeted towards the poor. Thus, their targeting assessments check whether these schemes have been allocated to low-income households or individuals. However, CCTs have more than one goal and target group. An additional goal of CCTs is to increase school enrolment. Hence, students at risk of dropping out of school also are a target group. This paper analyses whether one of the most common targeting mechanisms of CCTs, a proxy means test (PMT), is suitable to identify the poor and future school dropouts. The PMT is compared with alternative approaches that use the outputs of a predictive model of school dropout. This model was built using machine learning algorithms and rich administrative datasets from Chile. The paper shows that using machine learning outputs in conjunction with the PMT increases targeting effectiveness by identifying more students who are either poor or future dropouts. This joint targeting approach increases effectiveness in different scenarios except when the social valuation of the two target groups largely differs. In these cases, the most likely optimal approach is to solely adopt the targeting mechanism designed to find the highly valued group.

Keywords: conditional cash transfers, machine learning, poverty, proxy means tests, school dropout prediction, targeting

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Mrinmoy Majumder, Apu Kumar Saha

Abstract:

The ever-increasing human population and its demand for energy is placing stress upon conventional energy sources; and as demand for power continues to outstrip supply, the need to optimize energy distribution and utilization is emerging as an important focus for various stakeholders. The distribution of available energy must be achieved in such a way that the needs of the consumer are satisfied. However, if the availability of resources is not sufficient to satisfy consumer demand, it is necessary to find a method to select consumers based on factors such as their socio-economic or environmental impacts. Weighting consumer types in this way can help separate them based on their relative importance, and cognitive optimization of the allocation process can then be carried out so that, even on days of particularly scarce supply, the socio-economic impacts of not satisfying the needs of consumers can be minimized. In this context, the present study utilized fuzzy logic to assign weightage to different types of consumers based at an educational campus in India, and then established optimal allocation by applying the non-linear mapping capability of neuro-genetic algorithms. The outputs of the algorithms were compared with similar outputs from particle swarm optimization and differential evolution algorithms. The results of the study demonstrate an option for the optimal utilization of available energy based on the socio-economic importance of consumers.

Keywords: power allocation, optimization problem, neural networks, environmental and ecological engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Tapas Acharya, Monalisa Mitra

Abstract:

Overlay modeling is the most widely used conventional analysis for spatial decision support system. Overlay modeling requires a set of themes with different weightage computed in varied manners, which gives a resultant input for further integrated analysis. In spite of the popularity and most widely used technique; it gives inconsistent and erroneous results for similar inputs while processed in various GIS overlay techniques. This study is an attempt to compare and analyse the differences in the outputs of different overlay methods using GIS platform with same set of themes of the Precambrian metamorphic to obtain groundwater prospecting in Precambrian metamorphic rocks. The objective of the study is to emphasize the most suitable overlay method for groundwater prospecting in older Precambrian metamorphics. Seven input thematic layers like slope, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil thickness, lineament intersection density, average groundwater table fluctuation, stream density and lithology have been used in the spatial overlay models of fuzzy overlay, weighted overlay and weighted sum overlay methods to yield the suitable groundwater prospective zones. Spatial concurrence analysis with high yielding wells of the study area and the statistical comparative studies among the outputs of various overlay models using RStudio reveal that the Weighted Overlay model is the most efficient GIS overlay model to delineate the groundwater prospecting zones in the Precambrian metamorphic rocks.

Keywords: fuzzy overlay, GIS overlay model, groundwater prospecting, Precambrian metamorphics, weighted overlay, weighted sum overlay

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Tan Swee Liang

Abstract:

This paper studies the two-way relationship between fintech credit and banking efficiency using the Generalized panel Method of Moment (GMM) estimation in structural equation modeling (SEM). Banking system efficiency, defined as its ability to produce the existing level of outputs with minimal inputs, is measured using input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA), where the whole banking system of an economy is treated as a single DMU. Banks are considered an intermediary between depositors and borrowers, utilizing inputs (deposits and overhead costs) to provide outputs (increase credits to the private sector and its earnings). Analysis of the interrelationship between fintech credit and bank efficiency is conducted to determine the impact in different country groupings (ASEAN, Asia and OECD), in particular the banking system response to fintech credit platforms. Our preliminary results show that banks do respond to the greater pressure caused by fintech platforms to enhance their efficiency, but differently across the different groups. The author’s earlier research on ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) as the determinant of economic growth suggests that expenses may not have been channeled efficiently to income-generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policymakers should enable alternative financing, such as fintech credit, as a warning or encouragement for banks to improve their efficiency.

Keywords: fintech lending, banking efficiency, data envelopment analysis, structural equation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Michel A. Thomet

Abstract:

A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Khali

Abstract:

Numbers of deep well anode ground beds (GBs) have been retrieved due to un operated anode chains. New identical magnetite anode chains(MAC) have been installed at Raslanuf complex impressed current Cathodic protection(ICCP) system, distributed at different plants(Utility, ethylene and polyethylene). All problems associated with retrieving and installation of MACs have been discussed, rectified and presented. All GB associated severely corroded wellhead casings were well maintained and/ or replaced by new fabricated and modified ones. The main cause of wellhead casings internal corrosion was discussed, and the conducted remedy action to overcome future corrosion problem is presented. All GB connected anode junction boxes (AJBs) and shunts were closely inspected, maintained, and necessary replacement/and or modification were carried out on shunts. All damaged GB concrete foundations (CF) have been inspected and completely replaced. All GB associated Transformer-Rectifiers units (TRUs) were subjected to through inspection, and necessary maintenance has been performed on each individual TRU. After completion of all MACs and TRU maintenance activities, each cathodic protection station (CPS) has been re-operated. An alternative current (AC), direct current (DC), voltage and structure to soil potential (S/P) measurements have been conducted, recorded, and all obtained test results are presented. DC current outputs has been adjusted, and DC current outputs of each MAC has been recorded for each GB AJB.

Keywords: magnatite anode, deep well, ground bed, cathodic protection, transformer rectifies, impreced current, junction box

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Khalil

Abstract:

The number of deep well anode ground beds (GBs) have been retrieved due to unoperated anode chains. New identical magnetite anode chains (MAC) have been installed at Raslanuf complex impressed current Cathodic protection (ICCP) system, distributed at different plants (Utility, ethylene and polyethylene). All problems associated with retrieving and installation of MACs have been discussed, rectified and presented. All GB-associated severely corroded wellhead casings were well maintained and/or replaced by new fabricated and modified ones. The main cause of the wellhead casing's severe internal corrosion was discussed and the conducted remedy action to overcome future corrosion problems is presented. All GB-connected anode junction boxes (AJBs) and shunts were closely inspected, maintained and necessary replacement and/or modifications were carried out on shunts. All damaged GB concrete foundations (CF) have been inspected and completely replaced. All GB-associated Transformer-Rectifiers Units (TRU) were subjected to thorough inspection and necessary maintenance was performed on each individual TRU. After completion of all MACs and TRU maintenance activities, each cathodic protection station (CPS) has been re-operated, alternative current (AC), direct current (DC), voltage and structure to soil potential (S/P) measurements have been conducted, recorded and all obtained test results are presented. DC current outputs have been adjusted and DC current outputs of each MAC have been recorded for each GB AJB.

Keywords: magnetite anodes, deep well, ground beds, cathodic protection, transformer rectifier, impressed current, junction boxes

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

Abstract:

Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Su Nandar Tin, Wutjanun Muttitanon

Abstract:

The availability of free global and historical satellite imagery provides a valuable opportunity for mapping and monitoring the year by year for the built-up area, constantly and effectively. Land distribution guidelines and identification of changes are important in preparing and reviewing changes in the ground overview data. This study utilizes Landsat images for thirty years of information to acquire significant, and land spread data that are extremely valuable for urban arranging. This paper is mainly introducing to focus the basic of extracting built-up area for the city development area from the satellite images of LANDSAT 5,7,8 and Sentinel 2A from USGS in every five years. The purpose analyses the changing of the urban built-up area according to the year by year and to get the accuracy of mapping built-up and bare land areas in studying the trend of urban built-up changes the periods from 1990 to 2020. The GIS tools such as raster calculator and built-up area modelling are using in this study and then calculating the indices, which include enhanced built-up and bareness index (EBBI), Normalized difference Built-up index (NDBI), Urban index (UI), Built-up index (BUI) and Normalized difference bareness index (NDBAI) are used to get the high accuracy urban built-up area. Therefore, this study will point out a variable approach to automatically mapping typical enhanced built-up and bare land changes (EBBI) with simple indices and according to the outputs of indexes. Therefore, the percentage of the outputs of enhanced built-up and bareness index (EBBI) of the sentinel-2A can be realized with 48.4% of accuracy than the other index of Landsat images which are 15.6% in 1990 where there is increasing urban expansion area from 43.6% in 1990 to 92.5% in 2020 on the study area for last thirty years.

Keywords: built-up area, EBBI, NDBI, NDBAI, urban index

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: B. S.Akhmetov, S. T. Akhmetova, D. N. Nadeyev, V. Yu. Yegorov, V. V. Smogoonov

Abstract:

Estimated probabilities of errors of the first and second kind for nonideal biometrics-neural transducers 256 outputs, the construction of nomograms based error probability of 'own' and 'alien' from the mathematical expectation and standard deviation of the normalized measures Hamming.

Keywords: modeling, errors, probability, biometrics, neural network, authentication

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Se-Mi Lim, Won-Jae Jung, Jin-Sup Kim, Jun-Seok Park, Hyung-Il Chae

Abstract:

This paper presents a current-mode vertical hall device (VHD) structure using metal layers in a CMOS process. The proposed metal layer based vertical hall device (MLVHD) utilizes vertical connection among metal layers (from M1 to the top metal) to facilitate hall effect. The vertical metal structure unit flows a bias current Ibias from top to bottom, and an external magnetic field changes the current distribution by Lorentz force. The asymmetric current distribution can be detected by two differential-mode current outputs on each side at the bottom (M1), and each output sinks Ibias/2 ± Ihall. A single vertical metal structure generates only a small amount of hall effect of Ihall due to the short length from M1 to the top metal as well as the low conductivity of the metal, and a series connection between thousands of vertical structure units can solve the problem by providing NxIhall. The series connection between two units is another vertical metal structure flowing current in the opposite direction, and generates negative hall effect. To mitigate the negative hall effect from the series connection, the differential current outputs at the bottom (M1) from one unit merges on the top metal level of the other unit. The proposed MLVHD is simulated in a 3-dimensional model simulator in COMSOL Multiphysics, with 0.35 μm CMOS process parameters. The simulated MLVHD unit size is (W) 10 μm × (L) 6 μm × (D) 10 μm. In this paper, we use an MLVHD with 10 units; the overall hall device size is (W) 10 μm × (L)78 μm × (D) 10 μm. The COMSOL simulation result is as following: the maximum hall current is approximately 2 μA with a 12 μA bias current and 100mT magnetic field; This work was supported by Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion(IITP) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No.R7117-16-0165, Development of Hall Effect Semiconductor for Smart Car and Device).

Keywords: CMOS, vertical hall device, current mode, COMSOL

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Emir Alaca, Hasbi Apaydin, Rohullah Rahmatullah, Necibe Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In recent years, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) have found extensive applications in various industrial sectors, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics, due to their high performance and low losses. Accurate mathematical modeling of PMSMs is crucial for advanced studies in electric machines. To enhance the effectiveness of graduate-level education, incorporating virtual or real experiments becomes essential to reinforce acquired knowledge. Virtual laboratories have gained popularity as cost-effective alternatives to physical testing, mitigating the risks associated with electrical machine experiments. This study presents a MATLAB-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) for PMSMs. The GUI offers a visual interface that allows users to observe variations in motor outputs corresponding to different input parameters. It enables users to explore healthy motor conditions and the effects of short-circuit faults in the one-phase winding. Additionally, the interface includes menus through which users can access equivalent circuits related to the motor and gain hands-on experience with the mathematical equations used in synchronous motor calculations. The primary objective of this paper is to enhance the learning experience of graduate and doctoral students by providing a GUI-based approach in laboratory studies. This interactive platform empowers students to examine and analyze motor outputs by manipulating input parameters, facilitating a deeper understanding of PMSM operation and control.

Keywords: magnet synchronous motor, mathematical modelling, education tools, winding inter-turn fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Álvaro Turriago-Hoyos

Abstract:

Most research tends to see innovation as an explanatory factor in achieving high levels of competitiveness and productivity. More recent studies have begun to analyze the determinants of innovation in the services sector as opposed to the much-discussed industrial sector of a country’s economy. This research paper focuses on the services sector in Colombia, one of Latin America’s fastest growing and biggest economies. Over the past decade, much of Colombia’s economic expansion has relied on commodity exports (mainly oil and coffee) whilst the industrial sector has performed relatively poorly. Such developments highlight the potential of the innovative role played by the services sector of the Colombian economy and its future growth prospects. This research paper analyzes the relationship between inputs, which at the same time are internal sources of innovation (such as R&D activities), and external sources that are improved by technology acquisition. The outputs are basically the four kinds of innovation that the OECD Oslo Manual recognizes: product, process, marketing and organizational innovations. The instrument used to measure this input-output relationship is based on Knowledge Production Function approaches. We run Probit models in order to identify the existing relationships between the above inputs and outputs, but also to identify spill-overs derived from interactions of the components of the value chain of the services firms analyzed: customers, suppliers, competitors, and complementary firms. Data are obtained from the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics for the period 2008 to 2013 published in the II and III Colombian National Innovation Survey. A short summary of the results obtained lead to conclude that firm size and a firm’s level of technological development turn out to be important discriminating factors for the description of the innovative process at the firm level. The model’s outcomes show a positive impact on the probability of introducing any kind of innovation both on R&D and Technology Acquisition investment. Also, cooperation agreements with customers, research institutes, competitors, and the suppliers are significant. Belonging to a particular industrial group is an important determinant but only to product and organizational innovation. It is possible to establish that Health Services, Education, Computer, Wholesale trade, and Financial Intermediation are the ISIC sectors, which report the highest number of frequencies of the considered set of firms. Those five sectors of the sixteen considered, in all cases, explained more than half of the total of all kinds of innovations. Product Innovation, which is followed by Marketing Innovation, gets the highest results. Displaying the same set of firms distinguishing by size, and belonging to high and low tech services sector shows that the larger the firms the larger a number of innovations, but also that always high-tech firms show a better innovation performance.

Keywords: Colombia, determinants of innovation, innovation, services sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Ting Kai Chia, Ruifeng Yan, Feifei Bai, Tapan Saha

Abstract:

This research presents a real-world power system oscillation incident in 2022 originated by a hybrid solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind renewable energy farm with a rated capacity of approximately 300MW in Australia. The voltage and reactive power outputs recorded at the point of common coupling (PCC) oscillated at a sub-synchronous frequency region, which sustained for approximately five hours in the network. The reactive power oscillation gradually increased over time and reached a recorded maximum of approximately 250MVar peak-to-peak (from inductive to capacitive). The network service provider was not able to quickly identify the location of the oscillation source because the issue was widespread across the network. After the incident, the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) concluded that the oscillation problem was caused by the incorrect setting recovery of the hybrid power plant controller (HPPC) in the voltage and reactive power control loop after a loss of communication event. The voltage controller normally outputs a reactive (Q) reference value to the Q controller which controls the Q dispatch setpoint of PV and wind plants in the hybrid farm. Meanwhile, a feed-forward (FF) configuration is used to bypass the Q controller in case there is a loss of communication. Further study found that the FF control mode was still engaged when communication was re-established, which ultimately resulted in the oscillation event. However, there was no detailed explanation of why the FF control mode can cause instability in the hybrid farm. Also, there was no duplication of the event in the simulation to analyze the root cause of the oscillation. Therefore, this research aims to model and replicate the oscillation event in a simulation environment and investigate the underlying behavior of the HPPC and the consequent oscillation mechanism during the incident. The outcome of this research will provide significant benefits to the safe operation of large-scale renewable energy generators and power networks.

Keywords: PV, oscillation, modelling, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Sarchil H. Qader, Andrew Harfoot, Mathias Kuepie, Sabrina Juran, Attila Lazar, Andrew J. Tatem

Abstract:

The need for high-quality, reliable, and timely population data, including demographic information, to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in all countries was recognized by the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for sustainable development. However, many low and middle-income countries lack reliable and recent census data. To achieve reliable and accurate census and survey outputs, up-to-date census enumeration areas and digital national sampling frames are critical. Census enumeration areas (EAs) are the smallest geographic units for collection, disseminating, and analyzing census data and are often used as a national sampling frame to serve various socio-economic surveys. Even for countries that are wealthy and stable, creating and updating EAs is a difficult yet crucial step in preparing for a national census. Such a process is commonly done manually, either by digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or walking the boundaries of units, both of which are extremely expensive. We have developed a user-friendly tool that could be employed to generate draft EA boundaries automatically. The tool is based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement datasets, GPS household locations, building footprints and uses publicly available natural, man-made and administrative boundaries. Initial outputs were produced in Burkina Faso, Paraguay, Somalia, Togo, Niger, Guinea, and Zimbabwe. The results indicate that the EAs are in line with international standards, including boundaries that are easily identifiable and follow ground features, have no overlaps, are compact and free of pockets and disjoints, and the boundaries are nested within administrative boundaries.

Keywords: enumeration areas, national sampling frame, gridded population data, preEA tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Soha Saad, Jean Bigeon, Florence Ossart, Etienne Sourdille

Abstract:

Developing better solutions for train rescheduling problems has been drawing the attention of researchers for decades. Most researches in this field deal with minor incidents that affect a large number of trains due to cascading effects. They focus on timetables, rolling stock and crew duties, but do not take into account infrastructure limits. The present work addresses electric infrastructure incidents that limit the power available for train traction, and hence the transportation capacity of the railway system. Rescheduling is needed in order to optimally share the available power among the different trains. We propose a rescheduling process based on dynamic multiphysics railway simulations that include the mechanical and electrical properties of all the system components and calculate physical quantities such as the train speed profiles, voltage along the catenary lines, temperatures, etc. The optimization problem to solve has a large number of continuous and discrete variables, several output constraints due to physical limitations of the system, and a high computation cost. Our approach includes a phase of sensitivity analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the system and help the decision making process and/or more precise optimization. This approach is a quantitative method based on simulation statistics of the dynamic railway system, considering a predefined range of variation of the input parameters. Three important settings are defined. Factor prioritization detects the input variables that contribute the most to the outputs variation. Then, factor fixing allows calibrating the input variables which do not influence the outputs. Lastly, factor mapping is used to study which ranges of input values lead to model realizations that correspond to feasible solutions according to defined criteria or objectives. Generalized Sobol indexes are used for factor prioritization and factor fixing. The approach is tested in the case of a simple railway system, with a nominal traffic running on a single track line. The considered incident is the loss of a feeding power substation, which limits the power available and the train speed. Rescheduling is needed and the variables to be adjusted are the trains departure times, train speed reduction at a given position and the number of trains (cancellation of some trains if needed). The results show that the spacing between train departure times is the most critical variable, contributing to more than 50% of the variation of the model outputs. In addition, we identify the reduced range of variation of this variable which guarantees that the output constraints are respected. Optimal solutions are extracted, according to different potential objectives: minimizing the traveling time, the train delays, the traction energy, etc. Pareto front is also built.

Keywords: optimization, rescheduling, railway system, sensitivity analysis, train timetable

Procedia PDF Downloads 399