Search results for: non-linear regression models

Authors: Dalia Rimawi, Walid Salameh, Amal Al-Omari, Hadeel AbdelKhaleq

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Predication of Survival time of patients with cancer, is a core factor that influences oncologist decisions in different aspects; such as offered treatment plans, patients’ quality of life and medications development. For a long time proportional hazards Cox regression (ph. Cox) was and still the most well-known statistical method to predict survival outcome. But due to the revolution of data sciences; new predication models were employed and proved to be more flexible and provided higher accuracy in that type of studies. Artificial neural network is one of those models that is suitable to handle time to event predication. In this study we aim to compare ph Cox regression with artificial neural network method according to data handling and Accuracy of each model.

Keywords: Cox regression, neural networks, survival, cancer.

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Minseo Jo

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors in the hedonic price models, that has significance impact in determining the price of apartments. There are many variables employed in the hedonic price models and their effectiveness vary differently according to the researchers and the regions they are analysing. In order to consider various conditions, the meta-regression analysis has been selected for the study. In this paper, four meta-independent variables, from the 65 hedonic price models to analysis. The factors that influence the prices of apartments, as well as including factors that influence the prices of apartments, regions, which are divided into two of the research performed, years of research performed, the coefficients of the functions employed. The covariance between the four meta-variables and p-value of the coefficients and the four meta-variables and number of data used in the 65 hedonic price models have been analyzed in this study. The six factors that are most important in deciding the prices of apartments are positioning of apartments, the noise of the apartments, points of the compass and views from the apartments, proximity to the public transportations, companies that have constructed the apartments, social environments (such as schools etc.).

Keywords: hedonic price model, housing price, meta-regression analysis, characteristics

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Authors: Hendradi Hardhienata, Tony Sumaryada, Sri Setyaningsih

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Current progress in the field of nonlinear optics has enabled precise surface characterization in semiconductor materials. Nonlinear optical techniques are favorable due to their nondestructive measurement and ability to work in nonvacuum and ambient conditions. The advance of the bond hyperpolarizability models opens a wide range of nanoscale surface investigation including the possibility to detect molecular orientation at the surface of silicon and zincblende semiconductors, investigation of electric field induced second harmonic fields at the semiconductor interface, detection of surface impurities, and very recently, study surface defects such as twin boundary in wurtzite semiconductors. In this work, we show using nonlinear optical techniques, e.g. nonlinear bond models how arbitrary polarization of the incoming electric field in Rotational Anisotropy Spectroscopy experiments can provide more information regarding the origin of the nonlinear sources in zincblende and wurtzite semiconductor structure. In addition, using hyperpolarizability consideration, we describe how the nonlinear susceptibility tensor describing SHG can be well modelled using only few parameter because of the symmetry of the bonds. We also show how the third harmonic intensity feature shows considerable changes when the incoming field polarization angle is changed from s-polarized to p-polarized. We also propose a method how to investigate surface reconstruction and defects in wurtzite and zincblende structure at the nanoscale level.

Keywords: surface characterization, bond model, rotational anisotropy spectroscopy, effective hyperpolarizability

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Authors: Kisan Sarda, Bhavika Shingote

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This paper aims to evaluate regression modelling for prediction of Energy storage of solar photovoltaic (PV) system using Semi parametric regression techniques because there are some parameters which are known while there are some unknown parameters like humidity, dust etc. Here irradiation of solar energy is different for different places on the basis of Latitudes, so by finding out areas which give more storage we can implement PV systems at those places and our need of energy will be fulfilled. This regression modelling is done for daily, monthly and seasonal prediction of solar energy storage. In this, we have used R modules for designing the algorithm. This algorithm will give the best comparative results than other regression models for the solar PV cell energy storage.

Keywords: semi parametric regression, photovoltaic (PV) system, regression modelling, irradiation

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Authors: Adel Bougamouza, Boualam Remini, Abd El Hadi Ammari, Feteh Sakhraoui

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The assessment of sediments being carried by a river is importance for planning and designing of various water resources projects. In this study, Artificial Neural Network Techniques are used to estimate the daily suspended sediment concentration for the corresponding daily discharge flow in the upstream of Foum El Gherza dam, Biskra, Algeria. The FFNN, GRNN, and RBNN models are established for estimating current suspended sediment values. Some statistics involving RMSE and R2 were used to evaluate the performance of applied models. The comparison of three AI models showed that the RBNN model performed better than the FFNN and GRNN models with R2 = 0.967 and RMSE= 5.313 mg/l. Therefore, the ANN model had capability to improve nonlinear relationships between discharge flow and suspended sediment with reasonable precision.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Oued Abiod watershed, feedforward network, generalized regression network, radial basis network, sediment concentration

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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This study considers the selection of the most suitable in silico molecular descriptors that could be used for s-triazine pesticides characterization. Suitable descriptors among topological, geometrical and physicochemical are used for quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) model establishment. Established models were obtained using linear regression (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. In this paper, MLR models were established avoiding multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors. Statistical quality of established models was evaluated by standard and cross-validation statistical parameters. For detection of similarity or dissimilarity among investigated s-triazine pesticides and their classification, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used and gave similar grouping. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: chemometrics, classification analysis, molecular descriptors, pesticides, regression analysis

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Authors: Lavinia B. Dulla

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The exploration study of the fuzzy regression approach attempts to present that fuzzy regression can be used as a possible alternative to classical regression. It likewise seeks to assess the differences and characteristics of simple linear regression and fuzzy regression using the width of prediction interval, mean absolute deviation, and variance of residuals. Based on the simple linear regression model, the fuzzy regression approach is worth considering as an alternative to simple linear regression when the sample size is between 10 and 20. As the sample size increases, the fuzzy regression approach is not applicable to use since the assumption regarding large sample size is already operating within the framework of simple linear regression. Nonetheless, it can be suggested for a practical alternative when decisions often have to be made on the basis of small data.

Keywords: fuzzy regression approach, minimum fuzziness criterion, interval regression, prediction interval

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Authors: Abdulrahman Sumayli, Saad M. AlShahrani

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For the hydrogenation process, knowing the solubility of hydrogen (H2) in hydrocarbons is critical to improve the efficiency of the process. We investigated the H2 solubility computation in four heavy crude oil feedstocks using machine learning techniques. Temperature, pressure, and feedstock type were considered as the inputs to the models, while the hydrogen solubility was the sole response. Specifically, we employed three different models: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR). To achieve the best performance, the hyper-parameters of these models are optimized using the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). We evaluated the models using a dataset of solubility measurements in various feedstocks, and we compared their performance based on several metrics. Our results show that the WOA-SVR model tuned with WOA achieves the best performance overall, with an RMSE of 1.38 × 10− 2 and an R-squared of 0.991. These findings suggest that machine learning techniques can provide accurate predictions of hydrogen solubility in different feedstocks, which could be useful in the development of hydrogen-related technologies. Besides, the solubility of hydrogen in the four heavy oil fractions is estimated in different ranges of temperatures and pressures of 150 ◦C–350 ◦C and 1.2 MPa–10.8 MPa, respectively

Keywords: temperature, pressure variations, machine learning, oil treatment

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Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Sabiu Bala Muhammad, Rosli Saad

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Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for fast estimation of true subsurface resistivity from apparent resistivity field measurements are developed and assessed in this study. The parameters investigated were apparent resistivity (ρₐ), horizontal location (X) and depth (Z) of measurement as the independent variables; and true resistivity (ρₜ) as the dependent variable. To achieve linearity in both resistivity variables, datasets were first transformed into logarithmic domain following diagnostic checks of normality of the dependent variable and heteroscedasticity to ensure accurate models. Four MLR models were developed based on hierarchical combination of the independent variables. The generated MLR coefficients were applied to another data set to estimate ρₜ values for validation. Contours of the estimated ρₜ values were plotted and compared to the observed data plots at the colour scale and blanking for visual assessment. The accuracy of the models was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), standard error (SE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (wMAPE). It is concluded that the MLR models can estimate ρₜ for with high level of accuracy.

Keywords: apparent resistivity, depth, horizontal location, multiple linear regression, true resistivity

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Swapan Maiti, Dipanwita Roy Chowdhury

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Nonlinear functions are essential in different cryptoprimitives as they play an important role on the security of the cipher designs. Rule 30 was identified as a powerful nonlinear function for cryptographic applications. However, an attack (MS attack) was mounted against Rule 30 Cellular Automata (CA). Nonlinear rules as well as maximum period CA increase randomness property. In this work, nonlinear rules of maximum period nonlinear hybrid CA (M-NHCA) are studied and it is shown to be a better crypto-primitive than Rule 30 CA. It has also been analysed that the M-NHCA with single nonlinearity injection proposed in the literature is vulnerable against MS attack, whereas M-NHCA with multiple nonlinearity injections provide maximum length cycle as well as better cryptographic primitives and they are also secure against MS attack.

Keywords: cellular automata, maximum period nonlinear CA, Meier and Staffelbach attack, nonlinear functions

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Authors: Hao Chen, Bo Guo, Ping Jiang

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Residual life (RL) estimation based on multi-phase nonlinear Wiener process was studied in this paper, which is significant for complicated products with small samples. Firstly, nonlinear Wiener model with random parameter was introduced and multi-phase nonlinear Wiener model was proposed to model degradation process of products that were nonlinear and separated into different phases. Then the multi-phase RL probability density function based on the presented model was derived approximately in a closed form and parameters estimation was achieved with the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Finally, the method was applied to estimate the RL of high voltage plus capacitor. Compared with the other three different models by log-likelihood function (Log-LF) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the proposed degradation model can capture degradation process of high voltage plus capacitors in a better way and provide a more reliable result.

Keywords: multi-phase nonlinear wiener process, residual life estimation, maximum likelihood estimation, high voltage plus capacitor

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Authors: Reza E. Sedgh, Rajesh P. Dhakal

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Shear walls have been used extensively as the main lateral force resisting systems in multi-storey buildings. The recent development in performance based design urges practicing engineers to conduct nonlinear static or dynamic analysis to evaluate seismic performance of multi-storey shear wall buildings by employing distinct analytical models suggested in the literature. For practical purpose, application of macroscopic models to simulate the global and local nonlinear behavior of structural walls outweighs the microscopic models. The skill level, computational time and limited access to RC specialized finite element packages prevents the general application of this method in performance based design or assessment of multi-storey shear wall buildings in design offices. Hence, this paper organized to verify capability of nonlinear shell element in commercially available package (Sap2000) in simulating results of some specimens under monotonic and cyclic loads with very oversimplified available cyclic material laws in the analytical tool. The selection of constitutive models, the determination of related parameters of the constituent material and appropriate nonlinear shear model are presented in detail. Adoption of proposed simple model demonstrated that the predicted results follow the overall trend of experimental force-displacement curve. Although, prediction of ultimate strength and the overall shape of hysteresis model agreed to some extent with experiment, the ultimate displacement(significant strength degradation point) prediction remains challenging in some cases.

Keywords: analytical model, nonlinear shell element, structural wall, shear behavior

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Authors: A. Brouri, F. Giri, A. Mkhida, A. Elkarkri, M. L. Chhibat

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Standard Hammerstein-Wiener models consist of a linear subsystem sandwiched by two memoryless nonlinearities. Presently, the linear subsystem is allowed to be parametric or not, continuous- or discrete-time. The input and output nonlinearities are polynomial and may be noninvertible. A two-stage identification method is developed such the parameters of all nonlinear elements are estimated first using the Kozen-Landau polynomial decomposition algorithm. The obtained estimates are then based upon in the identification of the linear subsystem, making use of suitable pre-ad post-compensators.

Keywords: nonlinear system identification, Hammerstein-Wiener systems, frequency identification, polynomial decomposition

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Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

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The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

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Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-François Plante, Michel Gamache

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This study introduces the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs' processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW's ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. it employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW, comparing its performance against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. the results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial datasets, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: deep learning, multi-layer neural networks, gradient descent, spatial interpolation, inverse distance weighting

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Authors: S. Benchelha, H. C. Aoudjehane, M. Hakdaoui, R. El Hamdouni, H. Mansouri, T. Benchelha, M. Layelmam, M. Alaoui

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The logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MarSpline) are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility map in Oudka, Morocco, using geographical information system. From spatial database containing data such as landslide mapping, topography, soil, hydrology and lithology, the eight factors related to landslides such as elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to road, distance to faults, lithology map and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by the two mentioned methods. Before the calculation, this database was divided into two parts, the first for the formation of the model and the second for the validation. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates to evaluate the quality of these probabilistic models. The result of this verification was that the MarSpline model is the best model with a success rate (AUC = 0.963) and a prediction rate (AUC = 0.951) higher than the LR model (success rate AUC = 0.918, rate prediction AUC = 0.901).

Keywords: landslide susceptibility mapping, regression logistic, multivariate adaptive regression spline, Oudka, Taounate

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

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An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

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Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125Hz to 8000Hz. The data contains patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R\textsuperscript{2} values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R\textsuperscript{2} values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R\textsuperscript{2} between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our best imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: machine learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations

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Authors: E. Menga, S. Hernandez

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Finite Element Models (FEMs) are widely used in order to study and predict the dynamic properties of structures and usually, the prediction can be obtained with much more accuracy in the case of a single component than in the case of assemblies. Especially for structural dynamics studies, in the low and middle frequency range, most complex FEMs can be seen as assemblies made by linear components joined together at interfaces. From a modelling and computational point of view, these types of joints can be seen as localized sources of stiffness and damping and can be modelled as lumped spring/damper elements, most of time, characterized by nonlinear constitutive laws. On the other side, most of FE programs are able to run nonlinear analysis in time-domain. They treat the whole structure as nonlinear, even if there is one nonlinear degree of freedom (DOF) out of thousands of linear ones, making the analysis unnecessarily expensive from a computational point of view. In this work, a methodology in order to obtain the nonlinear frequency response of structures, whose nonlinearities can be considered as localized sources, is presented. The work extends the well-known Structural Dynamic Modification Method (SDMM) to a nonlinear set of modifications, and allows getting the Nonlinear Frequency Response Functions (NLFRFs), through an ‘updating’ process of the Linear Frequency Response Functions (LFRFs). A brief summary of the analytical concepts is given, starting from the linear formulation and understanding what the implications of the nonlinear one, are. The response of the system is formulated in both: time and frequency domain. First the Modal Database is extracted and the linear response is calculated. Secondly the nonlinear response is obtained thru the NL SDMM, by updating the underlying linear behavior of the system. The methodology, implemented in MATLAB, has been successfully applied to estimate the nonlinear frequency response of two systems. The first one is a two DOFs spring-mass-damper system, and the second example takes into account a full aircraft FE Model. In spite of the different levels of complexity, both examples show the reliability and effectiveness of the method. The results highlight a feasible and robust procedure, which allows a quick estimation of the effect of localized nonlinearities on the dynamic behavior. The method is particularly powerful when most of the FE Model can be considered as acting linearly and the nonlinear behavior is restricted to few degrees of freedom. The procedure is very attractive from a computational point of view because the FEM needs to be run just once, which allows faster nonlinear sensitivity analysis and easier implementation of optimization procedures for the calibration of nonlinear models.

Keywords: frequency response, nonlinear dynamics, structural dynamic modification, softening effect, rubber

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Authors: Bououden Soraya

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This paper aims to study the existence of the change of coordinates which permits to transform a class of nonlinear dynamical systems into the so-called nonlinear observer canonical form (NOCF). Moreover, an algorithm to construct such a change of coordinates is given. Based on this form, we can design an observer with a linear error dynamic. This enables us to estimate the state of a nonlinear dynamical system. A concrete example (biological model) is provided to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed results.

Keywords: nonlinear observer canonical form, observer, design, gene regulation, gene expression

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Irena Palić

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This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analysed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analysed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.

Keywords: European union, Internet purchases, multiple linear regression model, outlier

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

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Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

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Authors: Nada Slimane, Foued Theljani, Faouzi Bouani

Abstract:

The paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis for systems operating in several modes (normal or faulty) based on states assessment. We use, for this purpose, a methodology consisting of three main processes: 1) sequential data clustering, 2) linear model regression and 3) state filtering. Typically, Kalman Filter (KF) is an algorithm that provides estimation of unknown states using a sequence of I/O measurements. Inevitably, although it is an efficient technique for state estimation, it presents two main weaknesses. First, it merely predicts states without being able to isolate/classify them according to their different operating modes, whether normal or faulty modes. To deal with this dilemma, the KF is endowed with an extra clustering step based fully on sequential version of the k-means algorithm. Second, to provide state estimation, KF requires state space models, which can be unknown. A linear regularized regression is used to identify the required models. To prove its effectiveness, the proposed approach is assessed on a simulated benchmark.

Keywords: clustering, diagnosis, Kalman Filtering, k-means, regularized regression

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