Search results for: long term instability risks

Authors: Chan Hui-Ya, Ding Shin-Tan

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Background and Aim: The discharge planning is considered helpful to reduce the hospital length of stay and readmission rate, and then increased satisfaction with healthcare for patients and professionals. In order to decrease the waiting time of long-term care and boost the care quality of patients after discharge from the hospital, the Ministry of Health and Welfare department in Taiwan initiates a program “discharge planning connects with long-term care 2.0 services” in 2017. The purpose of this study is to investigate the outcome of the pilot of this program in a medical center. Methods: By purpose sampling, the study chose five wards in a medical center as pilot units. The researchers compared the beds of service, the numbers of cases which were transferred to the long-term care center and transferred rates per month between the pilot units and the other units, and analyze the basic data, the long-term care service needs and the approval service items of cases transfer to the long-term care center in pilot units. Results: From June to September 2017, a total of 92 referrals were made, and 51 patients were enrolled into the pilot program. There is a significant difference of transferring rate between the pilot units and the other units (χ = 702.6683, p < 0.001). Only 20 cases (39.2% success rate) were approved to accept the parts of service items of long-term care in the pilot units. The most approval item was respite care service (n = 13; 65%), while it was third at needs ranking of service lists during linking services process. Among the reasons of patients who cancelled the request, 38.71% reasons were related to the services which could not match the patients’ needs and expectation. Conclusion: The results indicate there is a requirement to modify the long-term care services to fit the needs of cases. The researchers suggest estimating the potential cases by screening data from hospital informatics systems and to hire more case manager according the service time of potential cases. Meanwhile, the strategies shortened the assessment scale and authorized hospital case managers to approve some items of long-term care should be considered.

Keywords: discharge planning, long-term care, case manager, patient care

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

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In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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The sequence of words in text data has long-term dependencies and is known to suffer from vanishing gradient problems when developing deep learning models. Although recurrent networks such as long short-term memory networks help to overcome this problem, achieving high text classification performance is a challenging problem. Convolutional recurrent networks that combine the advantages of long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks can be useful for text classification performance improvements. However, arriving at suitable hyperparameter values for convolutional recurrent networks is still a challenging task where fitting a model requires significant computing resources. This paper illustrates the advantages of using convolutional recurrent networks for text classification with the help of statistically planned computer experiments for hyperparameter tuning.

Keywords: long short-term memory networks, convolutional recurrent networks, text classification, hyperparameter tuning, Tukey honest significant differences

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Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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Authors: N. Musayeva, N. Rustamova, N. Bagirov, S. Ibadov

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Purpose: to analyze the long-term results of external dacryocystorhinostomy (DCR), which remains the preferred primary procedure in the surgical treatment of lacrimal duct obstruction in chronic dacryocystitis. Methodology: long-term results of external DCR (after 3 years) performed on 90 patients (90 eyes) with chronic dacryocystitis from 2018 to 2020 were evaluated. The Azerbaijan National Center of Ophthalmology, named after acad. Zarifa Aliyeva. 15 of the patients were men, 75 – women. The average age was 45±3.2 years. Surgical operations were performed under local anesthesia. All patients suffered from diabetes mellitus for more than 3 years. All patients underwent external DCR and silicone drainage (tube) was implanted. In the postoperative period (after 3 years), lacrimation, purulent discharge, and the condition of the scar at the operation site were assessed. Results: All patients were under observation for more than 18 months. In general, the effectiveness of the surgical operation was 93.34%. Recurrence of disease was observed in 6 patients and in 3 patients (3.33%), the scar at the site of the operation was rough (non-cosmetic). In 3 patients (3.33%) – the surgically formed anastomosis between the lacrimal sac and the nasal bone was obstructed by scar tissue. These patients were reoperated by trans canalicular laser DCR. Conclusion: Despite the long-term (more than a hundred years) use of external DCR, it remains one of the primary techniques in the surgery of chronic dacryocystitis. Due to the high success rate and good long-term results of DCR in the treatment of chronic dacryocystitis in patients suffering from diabetes mellitus, we recommend external DCR for this group of patients.

Keywords: chronic dacryocystitis, diabetes mellitus, external dacryocystorhinostomy, long-term results

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Authors: Aruha Khan, Brynn E. Kankel, Paraskevi Papadopoulou

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In recent years, extensive research upon ‘stress’ has provided insight into its two distinct guises, namely the short–term (fight–or–flight) response versus the long–term (chronic) response. Specifically, the long–term or chronic response is associated with the suppression or dysregulation of immune function. It is also widely noted that the occurrence of cancer is greatly correlated to the suppression of the immune system. It is thus necessary to explore the impact of long–term or chronic stress upon the prevalence and risk of cancer. To what extent can the dysregulation of immune function caused by long–term exposure to stress be controlled or minimized? This study focuses explicitly upon immunosuppression due to its ability to increase disease susceptibility, including cancer itself. Based upon an analysis of the literature relating to the fundamental structure of the immune system alongside the prospective linkage of chronic stress and the development of cancer, immunosuppression may not necessarily correlate directly to the acquisition of cancer—although it remains a contributing factor. A cross-sectional analysis of the survey data from the University of Tennessee Medical Center (UTMC) and Harvard Medical School (HMS) will provide additional supporting evidence (or otherwise) for the hypothesis of the study about whether immunosuppression (caused by the chronic stress response) notably impacts the prevalence of cancer. Finally, a multidimensional framework related to education on chronic stress and its effects is proposed.

Keywords: immune system, immunosuppression, long–term (chronic) stress, risk of cancer

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Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: Head and neck cancer and treatments are known for their profound effect on nutrition and tube feeding is a common requirement to maintain nutrition. Aim: We aimed to evaluate the frequency of tube feeding in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patients, and to examine the relapse and survival outcomes in patients who require enteral tube feeding. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 head and neck cancer patients from a single centre in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal patients and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by site, histology, rurality, and age. Data collected included patient demographics, tumour features, treatment details, and cancer and survival outcomes. Results: Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patients required feeding tubes at similar rates (42.5% vs 46.2% respectively), however Aboriginal patients were far more likely to fail to return to oral nutrition, with 26.3% requiring long-term tube feeding versus only 15% of non-Aboriginal patients. In the overall study population, 27.5% required short-term tube feeding, 17.8% required long-term enteral tube nutrition, and 45.3% of patients did not have a feeding tube at any point. Relapse was more common in patients who required tube feeding, with relapses in 42.1% of the patients requiring long-term tube feeding, 31.8% in those requiring a short-term tube, versus 18.9% in the ‘no tube’ group. Survival outcomes for patients who required a long-term tube were also significantly poorer when compared to patients who only required a short-term tube, or not at all. Long-term tube-requiring patients were half as likely to survive (29.8%) compared to patients requiring a short-term tube (62.5%) or no tube at all (63.5%). Patients requiring a long-term tube were twice as likely to die with active disease (59.6%) as patients with no tube (28%), or a short term tube (33%). This may suggest an increased relapse risk in patients who require long-term feeding, due to consequences of malnutrition on cancer and treatment outcomes, although may simply reflect that patients with recurrent disease were more likely to have longer-term swallowing dysfunction due to recurrent disease and salvage treatments. Interestingly long-term tube patients were also more likely to die with no active disease (10.5%) (compared with short-term tube requiring patients (4.6%), or patients with no tube (8%)), which is likely reflective of the increased mortality associated with long-term aspiration and malnutrition issues. Conclusions: Requirement for tube feeding was associated with a higher rate of cancer relapse, and in particular, long-term tube feeding was associated with a higher likelihood of dying from head and neck cancer, but also a higher risk of dying from other causes without cancer relapse. This data reflects the complex effect of head and neck cancer and its treatments on swallowing and nutrition, and ultimately, the effects of malnutrition, swallowing dysfunction, and aspiration on overall cancer and survival outcomes. Tube feeding was seen at similar rates in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patient, however failure to return to oral intake with a requirement for a long-term feeding tube was seen far more commonly in the Aboriginal population.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, enteral tube feeding, malnutrition, survival, relapse, aboriginal patients

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Authors: L. Totladze

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The role of financial sector in supporting economic growth and development is well acknowledged. The term spread (the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) has been found useful for predicting economic variables as output growth, inflation, industrial production, consumption. The temp spread is one of the leading economic indicators according to NBER methodology. Leading economic indicators are widely used in forecasting of economic activity. Many empirical studies find that the term spread predicts future economic activity. The article shortly explains how the term spread might predict future economic activity. This paper analyses the dynamics of the spread between short and long-term interest rates in countries with transition economies. The research paper analyses term spread dynamics in Georgia and compare it with post-communist countries and transition economies spread dynamics. In Georgia, the banking sector plays an important and dominant role in the financial sector, especially with respect to the mobilization of savings and provision of credit and may impact on economic activity. For this purpose, we study the impact of the term spread on economic growth in Georgia.

Keywords: forecasting, leading economic indicators, term spread, transition economies

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Authors: Danilo López, Nelson Vera, Luis Pedraza

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This paper analyzes fundamental ideas and concepts related to neural networks, which provide the reader a theoretical explanation of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks operation classified as Deep Learning Systems, and to explicitly present the mathematical development of Backward Pass equations of the LSTM network model. This mathematical modeling associated with software development will provide the necessary tools to develop an intelligent system capable of predicting the behavior of licensed users in wireless cognitive radio networks.

Keywords: neural networks, multilayer perceptron, long short-term memory, recurrent neuronal network, mathematical analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Wahb

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Physical activity is increasingly recognized as a significant factor in maintaining optimal health and preventing chronic diseases. This research scrutinizes the long-term health benefits of sustained physical activity, employing a systematic review of epidemiological studies and randomized control trials conducted over the past decade. The study illuminates the protective effects of regular physical activity against cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, and mental health disorders, with a special focus on the mechanisms involved. Furthermore, the paper provides insights into how public health initiatives can effectively promote physical activity among diverse populations, contributing to improved community health outcomes.

Keywords: physical activity, long-term health benefits, chronic disease prevention, public health

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Authors: Pocholo Rodriguez, Anne Bernadine Ocampo, Ian Benedict Chan, Janric Micah Gray

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The state of an electric power system may be classified as either stable or unstable. The borderline of stability is at any condition for which a slight change in an unfavourable direction of any pertinent quantity will cause instability. Voltage instability in power distribution systems could lead to voltage collapse and thus power blackouts. The researchers will present an intelligent system using back propagation algorithm that can detect voltage instability and output voltage of a power distribution and classify it as stable or unstable. The researchers’ work is the use of parameters involved in voltage instability as input parameters to the neural network for training and testing purposes that can provide faster detection and monitoring of the power distribution system.

Keywords: back-propagation algorithm, load instability, neural network, power distribution system

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Authors: Eman Hegazy, Stefan Anderberg, Joakim Krook

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Urban water infrastructure systems are central to functioning cities. For securing a continuous and efficient supply of the systems services, continuous investment, maintenance, and renewal are needed. Neglecting maintenance and renewal can lead to recurrent breakdown problems as systems age, which makes it more and more difficult to secure efficient long-term supply. Globally, many cities struggle with aging water infrastructure, often due to competing funding priorities. Investment in maintenance and renewal is not prioritized. The problem primarily stems from the challenge of reaping the benefits of investments promptly. The long-term benefits gained from investing in the renewal of water infrastructure may be achievable in the long run, resulting in the oversight of such investments. This leads to a build-up of "renewal debt" for future generations to inherit. Addressing this issue is difficult due to various contributing factors and the complex nature of the systems. The study aims to contribute to an increased understanding of the long-term management challenges of urban water infrastructure, the development of improved maintenance and renewal strategies through the examination of water infrastructure management, and the assessment of the adequacy of the maintenance and renewal in a case study, the city of Linköping, Sweden. Employing a multi-methods approach, this study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods, including interviews, workshops, and data analysis. The findings of the study provided insights into the current status of the water and sewerage networks in Linkoping, highlighting the risks to ensuring reliable and sustainable water supply and discussing strategies for improving maintenance and renewal.

Keywords: case study, infrastructure management, renewal needs, Sweden, urban water infrastructure

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Authors: Puneet Goyal, Aarti Agarwal

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Background and Objective: Nutritional support is an integral part of palliative care of advanced non-resectable abdominal malignancy patients, though is frequently neglected aspect. Non-Healing high output Entero-cutaneous fistulas sometimes require long term parenteral nutrition, to take care of catabolism and replacement of nutrients. We present a case of inoperable pancreatic malignancy with high output entero-cutaneous fistula, which was provided parenteral nutritional support with the use of Totally Implantable Venous Access Device (TIVAD). Method and Results: 55 year old man diagnosed with carcinoma pancreas had developed high entero-cutaneous fistula. His tumor was found to be inoperable and was on total parenteral nutrition through routine central line. This line was difficult to maintain as he required it for a long term TPN. He was planned to undergo Totally Implantable Venous Access Device (TIVAD) implantation. 8Fr single lumen catheter with Groshong non-return Valve (Bard Access Systems, Inc. USA) was inserted through right internal jugular vein, under fluoroscopic guidance. The catheter was tunneled subcutaneously and brought towards infraclavicular pocket, cut at appropriate length and connected to port and locked. Port was sutured in floor of pocket. Free flow of blood aspirated, flushed with heparinized saline. There was no kink observed in entire length of catheter under fluoroscopy. Skin over infraclavicular pocket was sutured. Long term catheter care and associated risks were explained to patient and relatives. Patient continued to receive total parenteral nutrition as well as other supportive therapy though TIVAD for next 6 weeks, till his demise. Conclusion: TIVADs are standard of care for long term venous access solutions in cancer patients requiring chemotherapy. In this case, we extended its use for providing parenteral nutrition and other supportive therapy. TIVADs can be implanted in advanced cancer patients for providing venous access solution required for various palliative treatments and medications. This will help in improving quality of life and satisfaction amongst terminally ill cancer patients.

Keywords: parenteral nutrition, totally implantable venous access device, long term venous access, interventions in anesthesiology

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Authors: Liu Yi Hui, Chun-Liang Lai, Jhang Yu Cih, He You Jing, Chiu Fan-Yun, Lin Yu Fang

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For universities offering long-term care education, the inclusion of adulting learning and practices in professional courses as appropriate based on holistic design and evaluation could improve talent empowerment by leveraging social capital. Moreover, it could make the courses and materials used in long-term care education responsive to real-life needs. A mixed research method was used in the research design. A quantitative study was also conducted using a questionnaire survey, and the data were analyzed by SPSS 22.0 Chinese version. The qualitative data included students’ learning files (learning reflection notes, course reports, and experience records).

Keywords: adult learning, community empowerment, social capital, mixed research

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Authors: Jienny Lee, In-Soo Cho, Sang-Ho Cha

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Adult mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been investigated using preclinical approaches for tissue regeneration. Porcine MSCs (pMSCs) are capable of growing and attaching to plastic with a fibroblast-like morphology and then differentiating into bone, adipose, and cartilage tissues in vitro. This study was conducted to investigate the proliferating abilities, differentiation potentials, and multipotency of miniature pig adipose tissue-derived MSCs (mpAD-MSCs) with or without long-term cryopreservation, considering that cryostorage has the potential for use in clinical applications. After confirming the characteristics of the mpAD-MSCs, we examined the effect of long-term cryopreservation (> 2 years) on expression of cell surface markers (CD34, CD90 and CD105), proliferating abilities (cumulative population doubling level, doubling time, colony-forming unit, and MTT assay) and differentiation potentials into mesodermal cell lineages. As a result, the expression of cell surface markers is similar between thawed and fresh mpAD-MSCs. However, long-term cryopreservation significantly lowered the differentiation potentials (adipogenic, chondrogenic, and osteogenic) of mpAD-MSCs. When compared with fresh mpAD-MSCs, thawed mpAD-MSCs exhibited lower expression of mesodermal cell lineage-related genes such as peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-g2, lipoprotein lipase, collagen Type II alpha 1, osteonectin, and osteocalcin. Interestingly, long-term cryostoraged mpAD-MSCs exhibited significantly higher cell viability than the fresh mpAD-MSCs. Long-term cryopreservation induced a 30% increase in the cell viability of mpAD-MSCs when compared with the fresh mpAD-MSCs at 5 days after thawing. However, long-term cryopreservation significantly lowered expression of stemness markers such as Oct3/4, Sox2, and Nanog. Furthermore, long-term cryopreservation negatively affected expression of senescence-associated genes such as telomerase reverse transcriptase and heat shock protein 90 of mpAD-MSCs when compared with the fresh mpAD-MSCs. The results from this study might be important for the successful application of MSCs in clinical trials after long-term cryopreservation.

Keywords: mesenchymal stem cells, cryopreservation, stemness, senescence

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, I-Fan Ho

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This study examines the credibility of the signaling as explanation for IPO initial underpricing. Findings reveal the initial underpricing and the long-term underperformance of IPOs in Taiwan. However, we only find weak support for signaling as explanation of IPO underpricing.

Keywords: signaling, IPO initial underpricing, IPO long-term underperformance, Taiwan’s stock market

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5 °C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change

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Authors: Shuenn-Yih Chang, Chiu-Li Huang

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Three structure-dependent integration methods have been developed for solving equations of motion, which are second-order ordinary differential equations, for structural dynamics and earthquake engineering applications. Although they generally have the same numerical properties, such as explicit formulation, unconditional stability and second-order accuracy, a different performance is found in solving the free vibration response to either linear elastic or nonlinear systems with high frequency modes. The root cause of this different performance in the free vibration responses is analytically explored herein. As a result, it is verified that a weak instability is responsible for the different performance of the integration methods. In general, a weak instability will result in an inaccurate solution or even numerical instability in the free vibration responses of high frequency modes. As a result, a weak instability must be prohibited for time integration methods.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, high frequency, integration method, overshoot, weak instability

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Authors: Aleema Rahman

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Introduction: This study aims to estimate the prevalence of long-term otitis media with effusion (OME) and hearing loss in a prospective longitudinal cohort studyand to study the relationship between the condition and educational and psychosocial outcomes. Methods: Analysis of data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) will be undertaken. ALSPAC is a longitudinal birth cohort study carried out in the UK, which has collected detailed measures of hearing on ~7000 children from the age of seven. A descriptive analysis of the data will be undertaken to estimate the prevalence of OME and hearing loss (defined as having average hearing levels > 20dB and type B tympanogram) at 7, 9, 11, and 15 years as well as that of long-term OME and hearing loss. Logistic and linear regression analyses will be conducted to examine associations between long-term OME and hearing loss and educational outcomes (grades obtained from standardised national attainment tests) and psychosocial outcomes such as anxiety, social fears, and depression at ages 10-11 and 15-16 years. Results: Results will be presented in terms of the prevalence of OME and hearing loss in the population at each age. The prevalence of long-term OME and hearing loss, defined as having OME and hearing loss at two or more time points, will also be reported. Furthermore, any associations between long-term OME and hearing loss and the educational and psychosocial outcomes will be presented. Analyses will take into account demographic factors such as sex and social deprivation and relevant confounders, including socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and IQ. Discussion: Findings from this study will provide new epidemiological information on the prevalence of long-term OME and hearing loss. The research will provide new knowledge on the impact of OME for the small group of children who do not grow out of condition by age 7 but continue to have hearing loss and need clinical care through later childhood. The study could have clinical implications and may influence service delivery for this group of children.

Keywords: educational attainment, hearing loss, otitis media with effusion, psychosocial development

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Authors: Meredith Rossi, Lesley Lee, Mary Wear, Mary Van Baalen, Bradley Rhodes

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The astronaut community is unique, and may be disproportionately exposed to occupational hazards not commonly seen in other communities. The extent to which the demands of the astronaut occupation and exposure to spaceflight-related hazards affect the health of the astronaut population over the life course is not completely known. A better understanding of the individual, population, and mission impacts of astronaut occupational exposures is critical to providing clinical care, targeting occupational surveillance efforts, and planning for future space exploration. The ability to characterize the risk of latent health conditions is a significant component of this understanding. Provision of health screening services to active and former astronauts ensures individual, mission, and community health and safety. Currently, the NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Medicine Clinic (FMC) provides extensive medical monitoring to active astronauts throughout their careers. Upon retirement, astronauts may voluntarily return to the JSC FMC for an annual preventive exam. However, current retiree monitoring includes only selected screening tests, representing an opportunity for augmentation. The potential long-term health effects of spaceflight demand an expanded framework of testing for former astronauts. The need is two-fold: screening tests widely recommended for other aging populations are necessary to rule out conditions resulting from the natural aging process (e.g., colonoscopy, mammography); and expanded monitoring will increase NASA’s ability to better characterize conditions resulting from astronaut occupational exposures. To meet this need, NASA has begun an extensive exploration of the overall approach, cost, and policy implications of expanding the medical monitoring of former NASA astronauts under the Astronaut Occupational Health program. Increasing the breadth of monitoring services will ultimately enrich the existing evidence base of occupational health risks to astronauts. Such an expansion would therefore improve the understanding of the health of the astronaut population as a whole, and the ability to identify, mitigate, and manage such risks in preparation for deep space exploration missions.

Keywords: astronaut, long-term health, NASA, occupational health, surveillance

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Authors: Valeri Arghutashvili, Mari Gogochuri

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Tourism industry development is one of the key priorities in Georgia, as it has positive influence on economic activities. Its contribution is very important for the different regions, as well as for the national economy. Benefits of the tourism industry include new jobs, service development, and increasing tax revenues, etc. The main aim of this research is to review and analyze the potential of the Georgian tourism industry with its long-term strategy and current challenges. To plan activities in a long-term development, it is required to evaluate several factors on the regional and on the national level. Factors include activities, transportation, services, lodging facilities, infrastructure and institutions. The major research contributions are practical estimates about regional tourism development which plays an important role in the integration process with global markets.

Keywords: regional tourism, tourism industry, tourism in Georgia, tourism benefits

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Authors: Euphrasia Susy Suhendra, Lies Handrijaningsih

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The banking sector as an intermediary party or intermediaries occupies a very important position in bridging the needs of working capital investment in the real sector with funds owner. This will certainly make money more effectively to improve the economic value added. As an intermediary, Islamic banks raise funds from the public and then distribute in the form of financing. In practice, the distribution of funding that is run by Islamic Banking is not as easy as, in theory, because, in fact, there are many financing problems; some are caused by lacking the assessment and supervision of banks to customers. This study aims to analyze the influence of the Third Party Funds, Return on Assets (ROA), Non Performing Financing (NPF), and Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) to Total Financing provided to the Community by Islamic Banks in Indonesia. The data used is monthly data released by Bank of Indonesia in Islamic Banking Statistics in the time period of January 2009 - December 2013. This study uses cointegration test to see the long-term relationship, and use error correction models to examine the relationship of short-term. The results of this study indicate that the Third Party Fund has a short-term effect on total funding, Return on Assets has a long term effect on the total financing, Non Performing Financing has long-term effects of total financing, and Financing deposit ratio has the effect of short-term and long-term of the total financing provided by Islamic Banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: Islamic banking, third party fund, return on asset, non-performing financing, financing deposit ratio

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Yin Yuanling

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A Deep Feedback Recurrent Neural Network (DFRNN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) are designed to address the problem of low accuracy of traditional relationship extraction models. This method combines a deep feedback-based recurrent neural network (DFRNN) with a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) approach. The method combines DFRNN, which extracts local features of text based on deep feedback recurrent mechanism, BiLSTM, which better extracts global features of text, and Self-Attention, which extracts semantic information. Experiments show that the method achieves an F1 value of 76.69% on the CEC dataset, which is 0.0652 better than the BiLSTM+Self-ATT model, thus optimizing the performance of the deep learning method in the event relationship extraction task.

Keywords: event relations, deep learning, DFRNN models, bi-directional long and short-term memory networks

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: Ahmad Baghdadi, Mohammed Kishk

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Construction projects are unique and involve different level of complexity. Airports projects, among other construction projects, are considered to be very complex as they face a number of challenges which make them inevitably exposed to risks. However, in Saudi Arabia, the sector of aviation is considered an important sector owing to the fact that it is the first destination for Muslims on an annual basis. As a result the Saudi government has allocated a huge amount of their general budget to this sector through the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA). However, it has been found that the projects are still delivered with a significant number of time and cost overruns. These consequences are typically generated from the risks involved in the projects. Thus, there is a need to identify the number of risks thought to cause such overruns in project times and costs, as well as to assess their significances in terms of their likelihoods of occurrence and their impacts. Accordingly, this paper aims to identify risks associated with aviation construction projects in Saudi Arabia, as well as to assess their likelihoods of occurrence and impacts on such projects. In total, forty four risks have been identified through a critical literature review of common risks in similar projects, as well as thirteen semi-structured interviews with expert project managers involved in GACA’s projects. However, the assessment of the identified risks in term of their likelihoods of occurrence and impacts was obtained through the analysis of forty five questionnaires. Respondents of questionnaires include clients, contractors and consultants. The results show the risks of design changes by the client, labour issue, and setting a tight schedule by the client have the highest likelihoods of occurrence in GACA projects, while the risks of earthquakes, design constructability, and corruption have the greatest impacts.

Keywords: aviation construction projects, GACA, risks, risk assessment, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Jun Hee Lee, Young Kyu Kim, Seong Jae Hong, Chamroeun Chhorn, Seung Woo Lee

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Roller-compacted concrete pavement (RCCP), an environmental friendly pavement of which load carry capacity benefitted from both hydration and aggregate interlock from roller compacting, demonstrated a superb structural performance for a relatively small amount of water and cement content. Even though an excellent structural performance can be secured, it is required to investigate roller-compacted concrete (RCC) under environmental loading and its long-term durability under critical conditions. In order to secure long-term durability, an appropriate internal air-void structure is required for this concrete. In this study, a method for improving the long-term durability of RCCP is suggested by analyzing the internal air-void structure and corresponding durability of RCC. The method of improving the long-term durability involves measurements of air content, air voids, and air-spacing factors in RCC that experiences changes in terms of type of air-entraining agent and its usage amount. This test is conducted according to the testing criteria in ASTM C 457, 672, and KS F 2456. It was found that the freezing-thawing and scaling resistances of RCC without any chemical admixture was quite low. Interestingly, an improvement of freezing-thawing and scaling resistances was observed for RCC with appropriate the air entraining (AE) agent content; Relative dynamic elastic modulus was found to be more than 80% for those mixtures. In RCC with AE agent mixtures, large amount of air was distributed within a range of 2% to 3%, and an air void spacing factor ranging between 200 and 300 μm (close to 250 μm, recommended by PCA) was secured. The long-term durability of RCC has a direct relationship with air-void spacing factor, and thus it can only be secured by ensuring the air void spacing factor through the inclusion of the AE in the mixture.

Keywords: durability, RCCP, air spacing factor, surface scaling resistance test, freezing and thawing resistance test

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Ravid Yinon

Abstract:

Introduction: Pelvic trauma causes high mortality, particularly among the elderly population. Pelvic injury ranges from low-energy incidents such as falls to high-energy trauma like motor vehicle accidents. The mortality rate among high-energy trauma patients is higher, as can be expected. The elderly population is more vulnerable to pelvic trauma even at low energy mechanisms due to the fragility and diminished physiological reserve of these patients. The aim of this study is to examine whether there is a higher long-term mortality in pelvic injuries in the elderly from the low-energy mechanism than those injured in high energy. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a level 1 trauma center with injured patients aged 65 years and over with pelvic trauma. The patients were divided into two groups of low and high-energy mechanisms of injury. Multivariate analysis was conducted to characterize the differences between the groups. Results: There were 585 consecutive injured patients over the age of 65 with a documented pelvic injury who were treated at the primary trauma center between 2008-2020. The injured in the high energy group were younger (mean HE- 75.18, LE-80.73), with fewer comorbidities (mean 0.78 comorbidities at HE and 1.28 at LE), more men (52.6% at HE and 27.4% at LE), were consumed more treatments facilities such as angioembolization, ICU admission, emergency surgeries and blood products transfusion and higher mortality rate at admission (HE- 19/133, 14.28%, LE- 10/452, 2.21%) compared to the low energy group. However, in a long-term follow-up of one year after the injury, mortality in the low-energy group was significantly higher (HE- 14/114, 12.28%, LE- 155/442, 35.06%). Discussion: Although it can be expected that in the mechanism of high energy, the mortality rate in the long term would be higher, it was found that mortality at the low energy patient was higher. Apparently, low-energy pelvic injury in geriatric patients is a measure of frailty in these patients, causes injury to more frail and morbid patients, and is a predictor of mortality in this population in the long term. Conclusion: The long-term follow-up of injured elderly with pelvic trauma should be more intense, and the healthcare provider should put more emphasis on the rehabilitation of these special patient populations in an attempt to prevent long-term mortality.

Keywords: pelvic trauma, elderly trauma, high energy trauma, low energy trauma

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